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ÿþHigh Probability Option Trading: Covered Calls and Credit Spreads Steve Lentz Director of Education and Research OptionVue Research, Inc. Disclaimer Option trading can involve highly volatile returns and unlimited risk. Option trading is not suitable for every investor. Overview Introduction to Options and Graphical Analysis Why Trade Option Spreads The Role of Volatility Advantages of Selling Premium Covered Calls Credit Spreads Obtaining Candidate Stocks Introduction to Options and Graphical Analysis Call Option  Right but not obligation to buy stock at a certain price on a certain date Put Option  Right but not obligation to sell stock at a certain price on a certain date IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade IBM 2/18/03 IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade IBM 2/18/03 Today s Risk/Reward Line IBM 2/18/03 Risk/Reward Line for 16 Days Away IBM 2/18/03 1st Standard Deviation of Possible Price Outcomes Based on Last Month of Trading IBM 2/18/03 Risk/Reward Line for Expiration in 32 Days Why Trade Option Spreads ? To Obtain Favorable Risk/Reward Ratios IBM 2/18/03 IBM 2/18/03 IBM 2/18/03 Long 100 Shares of Stock Long 1 Call Option 16 Days Out IBM 2/18/03 Long Stock 1:1 Risk/Reward Ratio IBM 2/18/03 Long Option Negative Risk/Reward Ratio On Normal Sized Moves IBM 2/18/03 Long Option Positive Risk/Reward Ratio Only on Big Moves Option Spreads Help Create Positive Risk/Reward Ratios On Normal Sized Moves IBM 2/18/03 Option Spreads Positive Risk/Reward Ratio Only on Normal Moves Advantages of Selling Premium: Adopt the role of insurance company Time is on your side Through risk management, the long-term odds can be in your favor The Role of Volatility IV SV IMPLIED VOLATILITY (IV) Measures the volatility of the underlying asset implied by current option prices Higher IV Means More Time Premium to Sell STATISTICAL VOLATILITY (SV) Measures how much the price of the asset itself has bounced around recently Higher SV Means a Wider Standard Deviation of Possible Price Outcomes Percentile Rankings Knowing a Good Premium Selling Situation Expensive vs. Inexpensive Overvalued vs. Undervalued Expensive = High IV Percentile Inexpensive = Low IV Percentile IV Percentile Rankings 100% EXPENSIVE 70% 30% INEXPENSIVE 0 Overvalued = High IV/SV Ratio Undervalued = Low IV/SV Ratio Knowing a Good Premium Selling Situation Sell Expensive and Overvalued Options Purchase Inexpensive and Undervalued Options Covered Calls for the Stock Investor IBM 2/18/03 IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Covered Call Bid Ask MIV Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Covered Call Bid Ask T.Prem Trade Bid Ask T.Prem Trade IBM 2/18/03 Today s Risk/Reward Line IBM 2/18/03 Risk/Reward Line for 16 Days Away IBM 2/18/03 Risk/Reward Line for Expiration in 32 Days IBM 2/18/03 73% Probability of Profit IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Covered Call Bid Ask T.Prem Trade Bid Ask T.Prem Trade IBM 2/18/03 IBM 2/18/03 Vertical Credit Spreads for the Option Trader IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Vertical Credit Spread Bid Ask MIV Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Vertical Credit Spread Bid Ask MIV Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade IBM 2/18/03 IBM 2/18/03 IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Vertical Credit Spread Bid Ask MIV Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade IBM 2/18/03 81% Probability of Profit IBM 2/18/03 IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Vertical Credit Spread Bid Ask MIV Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade IBM 2/18/03 Position Requirements IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Covered Call Bid Ask T.Prem Trade Bid Ask T.Prem Trade Stock Position: 100 shares X $79.33 = $7,933 Margined Position: $7,933 X 50% = $3,967 Minus $330 Credit for The Sold Call Total = $3,637 IBM 2/18/03 Last Change Trade Vertical Credit Spread Bid Ask MIV Trade Bid Ask MIV Trade Spread - Credit: Spread = $10 X 100 shrs = $1000 Credit = $390 Collected - 115 Paid Out $275 $1000 - $275 = $725 IBM 2/18/03 Covered Call: $3,637 Vertical Credit Spread: $725 IBM 2/18/03 Covered Call: $3,637 Vertical Credit Spread: $725 Obtaining Candidate Stocks High Probability Option Trading: Covered Calls and Credit Spreads Steve Lentz Director of Education and Research OptionVue Research, Inc.

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