1207818257

The optimal combination of less stringent restrictions with supplementary measures which keeps R_t below 1.0 is emerging, but not yet known

EU5: current experience and plans for relaxing of lockdown

United Kingdom £gt

Initial announcement on plan to relax lockdown restrictions on May 10 Morę specific details still being developed

Germany 0

Leading the EU5 in terms of relaxing lockdown restrictions. with opening of shops. museums and religious services Lockdown measures are examined bi-weekly - morę frequently than other EU5 nations Robert Koch Institute estimates R, has increased to above 1.0 sińce lockdown ^measures relaxed

Spain y\J

Emerged from strict lockdown after seven weeks on 26^ April

Daily deaths have increased sińce then. prompting the government to extend the State of Emergency to the 24^Ih May

France i )

Progressive release of lockdown starting May 11 including re-opening of primary schools and businesses

Secondary schools and restaurants expected to open y[n Iow risk zones from June

Italy ( >

Initial relaxation of lockdown measures in place, allowing people to move within their region, provided social distancing measures are observed Schools, hairdressers, gyms and other commercial activities remain closed

Germany has generally been ahead of the other EU5 nations, with greater hospital capacity and eariier implementation of large scalę testing. This has enabled it to implement less stringent lockdowns and given it morę optionality in considering how best to ease lockdown

The early experiences in Germany indicate how delicate the easing of restrictions is, with the Robert Koch Institute estimating that R, has likely risen above 1.0 sińce measures were relaxed, increasing the risk of a secondary outbreak

Similarly, Spain has begun to observe daily deaths increasing again sińce the easing of restrictions from the 26^łh April. This has prompted and extension to the State of Emergency to 24^th May

The impact of changes to the current restrictions are usually only observable 1-2 weeks after the change has been madę, reducing the government’s ability to monitor the changes in real time. As Germany and Spain have started to ease lockdown restrictions first, they have few learnings on which to base their current policies

By contrast, the U.K. and France, whose outbreaks are eariier in the control phase of the virus, are easing lockdowns later, and will be able to learn from the other EU5 nations

Source: Govemment announcements; Robert Koch Institute; L.E.K. research and analysis

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