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The new ‘Pacific Century’ and the rise
of China: an international relations
perspective

Thomas Wilkins

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The new ‘Pacific Century’ and the rise of China: an

international relations perspective

T

HOMAS

W

ILKINS*

The re-emergence of the ‘Pacific Century’, or ‘Asia-Pacific Century’,
discourse centred on the rise of Chinese power raises important questions
in the discipline of international relations (IR). These questions relate to the
conceptualisation of the Pacific Century discourse, its application to the
contemporary empirical case, and its relationship and amenability to IR
theories. In order to address these questions, the article subjects the concept
of a ‘Pacific Century’ to critical analysis through the synergy of three
pertinent ‘debates’. First, it creates a novel analytical framework to define
and codify the parameters of the Pacific Century debate; a discourse that has
until now remained diffuse and inchoate. Second, it engages with the present
‘great debate’ in IR between the traditional/rationalist and critical/reflecti-
vist approaches, applying them in juxtaposition to the notion of a ‘new’
Pacific Century, led by China. Thirdly, then, the article speaks to the ‘rising
China’ debate, which currently captivates commentators both in academic
and policy-making circles. The article explores how the ‘Pacific Century’
concept is a compound of both ideational and material factors: it is at once
both a political/ideological project and a reified intellectual frame of
reference. Through this multidimensional analysis, the article aims to shape
the re-emerging debate on the Pacific Century, affirm the enduring value of
the term, and demonstrate the efficacy of IR theories in deconstructing
conceptual problems.

Introduction

The concept of a ‘Pacific Century’ has plainly re-entered the discourse of
international politics, after a brief hiatus following the Asian financial crisis of
1997
8. Now, according to Prime Minster Kevin Rudd, we are (again) poised to
enter a new epoch of Pacific power and prosperity. The prime minister identifies
that ‘[t]he 21st century will be the Asia-Pacific century . . . so we need to make
sure that in the decades ahead we are fully engaged with the region’ (Larkin
2008). The notion is not confined to rhetoric, as it also forms the centrepiece of

*Thomas Wilkins specialises in security studies and strategic studies at the University of Sydney.
His latest publication is ‘Building regional security architecture: the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation from an organisational theories perspective’, in State, society and international
relations in Asia, edited by Medhi Parvizi Amineh (Amsterdam University Press, 2010).

[e-mail] 

ISSN 1035-7718 print/ISSN 1465-332X online/10/040381-25 # 2010 Australian Institute of International Affairs

DOI: 10.1080/10357718.2010.489993

Australian Journal of International Affairs Vol. 64, No. 4,
pp. 381
405, August 2010

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the 2009 Australia Defence White Paper, Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific
Century: Force 2030 (Department of Defence 2009). This revival of the ‘Pacific
Century’ concept in its current guise, with the ‘Asia-’ prefix attached, is
underwritten by a concern over the implications of the rise of China, and Asia
in general, as outlined in the works of scholars and public intellectuals such as
Bill Emmott (2009), Parag Khanna (2008), and Kishore Mahbubani (2008a,
2008b) . The consensus is, in the words of a recent Australian Strategic Policy
Institute report, that ‘the global centre of gravity continues to shift from the
transatlantic region to the transpacific’ (Lyon and Leah 2008: 41). Canberra
surely recognises the advantages to be wrought from its engagement with China
and the other major Asia-Pacific powers. To this purpose, Rudd has enunciated
a vision for regional economic and security integration, aiming to establish an
‘Asia-Pacific Community’ by 2020.

1

Yet, despite his leading efforts to revive the

Pacific Century discourse by coining the new term ‘Asia-Pacific Century’ as its
latest descriptor, Rudd is not its progenitor, nor is the concept by any means
confined to Australia, as we shall see. The invocation of the concept also presents
a number of problematic questions as to its definition, remit, and implications,
which this article seeks to examine.

Background

Notions of a ‘Pacific Century’, along with its close cognates ‘Pacific Age’, ‘Pacific
Era’, ‘Asian Century’, and, now, ‘Asia-Pacific Century’, have a long historical
pedigree.

2

The term arguably has its genesis in the expansion of the European

spice trade in the Asia-Pacific from around the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries,
but it was on the eve of the twentieth century that the concept began to gain real
traction in international politics (for uses of these terms, see Davenport 2006;
Korhonen 1996; Mahbubani 2008a; Moon 2006). Writing in the 1890s, a
Japanese diplomat, Inagaki Manjiro¯ (1890), advanced the belief that the coming
twentieth century would herald the dawning of a ‘Pacific Age’ (later recast in
Western discourse as ‘Pacific Century’). Inagaki may not have seen his vision of a
‘Pacific Century’ realised in his lifetime, but the concept would reach maturity
toward the end of that century, and Japan would be firmly associated with it.

It was in the late 1980s that ‘the concept of the Pacific Century . . . reached its

zenith’, according to Rosemary Foot and Andrew Walter (1999: 245). At this
time, the Japanese economic miracle, which had begun in the 1960s, spread to
the ‘Asian tigers’ of Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong. With
Japan at the pinnacle of its commercial ascendancy, touted as ‘number one’ in
Erza Vogel’s best-seller, the region of East Asia experienced phenomenal
economic growth, combined with increasing domestic stability and democrati-
sation (Johnson 1982; Kim 1999; Vogel 1979). Moreover, American trade with
the Pacific world overtook its transatlantic commerce for the first time in the
1980s. Convincing arguments were made that the Pacific Basin was increasingly

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becoming the locus of future world development, and pundits again began to
dub this the ‘Pacific Century’ (Borthwick 1998; Gibney 1992; McCord 1991).
Politicians, financiers, and academics embraced the ‘confident prediction from
within the region that the Pacific Century will be the defining feature of the post-
Cold War world’ (Bell 1996). Indeed, the concept became something of an
intoxicant. Foot and Walter observe how ‘[t]he first half of the 1990s were the
blossoming of the ‘‘Pacific Dream’’ when the terms future, prosperity and Asia-
Pacific became almost synonymous’ (cited in Dorsch 2006: 110).

The dream became a nightmare when the devaluation of the Thai baht

triggered the Asian financial crisis of 1997
8, plunging most of the region into
dire financial straits. The prevailing mood of confidence ‘was pricked and then
deflated by the devastating economic crisis’, and all talk of the Pacific Century
and its counterparts quickly evaporated (Dupont 2007: 2). However, as the
affected countries recovered with astonishing rapidity (some laggards such as
Indonesia excepted), the concept began to gradually re-emerge.

The ‘new’ Pacific Century

Now, the ‘Pacific Century’ concept is back. But this time around the role of
vanguard has shifted from a lacklustre-performing Japan to a dynamic China,
with Beijing providing the impetus to restart the region’s stalled economies. In
this iteration of the ‘new’ Pacific Century it is China that is ‘number one’ (Vogel
2004). The ascension of the People’s Republic of China*

/

a country with

theoretically unlimited potential*

/

paves the way for a renewed Pacific Century

(if not a ‘Chinese Century’). With the recovery of the ‘tigers’ through banking-
sector reform, and the emergence of the ‘new tigers’ of Malaysia, Vietnam,
Indonesia, and Thailand, flanking the Chinese giant*

/

not to mention ‘rising

India’*

/

it is thus a propitious moment to reconsider whether the ‘Pacific

Century’ concept may again be applicable to portray the geopolitical and geo-
economic dynamics of the region.

In identifying a resurgence of the ‘Pacific Century’ label, this article seeks to

address a number of issues regarding its conceptualisation and application in
international relations (IR): What exactly is the Pacific Century? What are its
conceptual and empirical dimensions and applications? And how does it relate to
the key theories and concerns of IR? Firstly, the article aims to construct a sound
analytical framework to codify our understanding of the ‘Pacific Century’
concept. Although a number of writers, such as Dennis Florig (2001) and
Rosemary Foot and Andrew Walter (1999), have approached the concept, on the
whole IR scholars have not systematically or conceptually interrogated
it*

/

certainly not in recent years. This deficiency will be addressed here. In the

second section of the article, this framework is applied to outline the parameters
of a ‘new’ Chinese-led Pacific Century, before subjecting this contemporary case
to further analysis by employing the traditional and critical perspectives of IR in

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383

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an effort to tease out its significance, dynamics, and implications. Although the
core focus of the second section is China, the other important Asian actors
(India, Korea, and Japan) are also considered in lesser detail. The article
concludes that a new, Chinese-led Pacific Century looks very different when
viewed from the various competing perspectives of IR.

As such, the enquiry benefits from operating at the nexus of three pertinent

and intersecting ‘debates’:

.

the debate surrounding the ‘Pacific Century’ concept itself;

.

the ‘rationalism versus reflectivism’ debate (known as the ‘third great IR
debate’); and

.

the ‘rising China’ debate.

Through a synthesis of these debates we can achieve a mature and sophisticated

appraisal of the ‘Pacific Century’ concept in its most recent guise, informed by
the spectrum of IR theories and dealing with perhaps the most pressing issue of
contemporary regional politics: the rise of China (see Figure 1).

PART I: Conceptualising the ‘Pacific Century’: an analytical framework

This section is dedicated to a comprehensive discussion of the first of our three
debates as it relates to the definition and parameters of the ‘Pacific Century’

(2) THE THIRD GREAT IR

DEBATE

(3) RISING CHINA

(1) THE PACIFIC

CENTURY

x

TRADITIONAL /

RATIONALIST IR

CRITICAL / REFLECTIVIST

IR

x = Locus of analysis in this article.

Figure 1. Three debates.

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concept itself. Offering a precise formulation of the ‘Pacific Century’ concept
raises a number of problematic questions. Like so many others in the realm of
the social sciences, it may be considered an ‘essentially contested concept’.
Precision is impeded not only by its abstract nature, but by the many variations
in its labelling and usage (mentioned above). In order to probe deeper into its
symbolism and offer a clearer definition of what it might entail, three
parameters must be examined in order to render the concept meaningful, prior
to its application to the China case study in the following section. These are:
ideological (an ‘idea’); temporal (a ‘time’); and spatial (a ‘place’).

An ‘idea’

The notion of Pacific Century*

/

whether its exponents explicitly recognise it or

not*

/

is above all an ideological construct. Although it may technically be

employed in an objective, descriptive sense, the term ‘Pacific Century’ (or its
iterations) is almost invariably advanced as a political project. It speaks to a
vision of inexorable progress toward a teleological ‘end state’. In this sense, it is
a classic example of a ‘speech act’. As Ole Wæver describes it: ‘the utterance
itself is the act . . . By saying the words something is done’ or brought into
existence (Buzan et al. 1998: 26). Whenever the concept has been invoked, it
has taken on slightly different connotations, depending upon its interlocutor.
Yet, the core thesis, the alleged objective and material foundation for the
political project and the resultant speech act, has remained essentially the same.
Briefly stated, this is that a paradigm shift has occurred, is occurring, or will
occur in international politics in which ‘the economic, political, and cultural
center of the world will move from the Atlantic to the Pacific’ (Korhonen 1996:
64). Pekka Korhonen argues that:

In terms of basic concepts, very little has changed since the days of Seeley [a
British contemporary] and Inagaki. Now as then, within the Pacific age
rhetoric, economically orientated dynamic nations head together toward a
glorious century, where everything is measured in grandiose oceanic terms
(ibid.).

The stimuli behind each invocation of the concept have varied. For example, in
the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, when Inagaki and Seeley
wrote, the discourse centred upon imperialist competition for the region’s
resources and strategically located ports (the ‘scramble for Asia’). In its
contemporary manifestation, it revolves around the stellar economic perfor-
mance of the major Asian states: first Japan, then the Asian tigers, and now
China (and India). The dynamism of the Asian ‘economic miracles’ has often
been twinned with the alleged superiority of Confucian and state-developmental
social models found in Asia (for an overview, see Mahbubani 1998; Yew 2000).
This opened a corresponding discourse on the role of ‘Asian values’ (or the

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‘Asian way’), famously ignited by the premiers of Malaysia and Singapore,
Mahathir bin Mohamad and Lee Kwan Yew. They argue that Asian culture and
society is proving superior to the liberal-democratic Western model, and herein
lies the root of Asia’s recent success (Subramaniam 2000). This discourse has
been muted since the Asian financial crisis revealed some of its failings.

Also, embedded in the concept is a mixture of ‘threat’ and ‘opportunity’. In the

first instance, if the Pacific world is in ascent, then it follows that the Atlantic
(‘Western’) world must be in decline, and therefore menaced by the rise of Asia.
Mahbubani (2008b) argues that the impact of Asia’s rise on world order will
depend upon the West’s response to its loss of dominance and its willingness to
gracefully concede its hegemonic position. The worst-case scenario would involve
war between the current hegemon, the United States, and the rising power
challenger, China (formerly Japan) (Friedman and LeBard 1991; Galen Carpenter
2006). On the other hand, the Pacific Century has been viewed as an opportunity
for mutual prosperity and cooperation. Amitav Acharya sees occasions for trans-
Pacific collaboration and integration. He makes the case that ‘the ‘‘Asian Way’’ is
diffusing across the Pacific Rim evolving into the ‘‘Asia-Pacific Way’’’ (cited in
Evans 2000: 159). Though much of the thesis hinges on mutually beneficial
economic progress, Borthwick (1998): 525) identifies that ‘in recent years
political obstacles to cooperation have diminished, giving rise to ‘‘regionalist’’
perspectives in national capitals throughout Pacific Asia’. The development of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum (ARF), Asia-
Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and other trans-Pacific institutions
substantiates this claim.

One thing is certain: unless the rise of Asia is disrupted, it will bring about a

major transformation both in the Asia-Pacific and the global international system.
Seema Desai (2006a) gives an indication of the scale of this development, claiming
that ‘[t]he ascent of the Asian giants parallels historical episodes, such as the
Industrial Revolution, or Meiji Restoration in Japan, in terms of the scope for
disruption and impact on the global economic and political order’. Indeed, Brad
Glosserman (2009) argues that ‘[a]ccording to conventional wisdom, the global
economic crisis is accelerating the transfer of power and influence from the West
to Asia’. This will have stark repercussions for the whole Westphalian-based
international system as it stands today.

A ‘time’

Secondly, one must consider the temporal question. The first hurdle is semantic.
The ‘Pacific Century’ concept is largely ‘epochal’, in that it identifies with ‘the
date of an occurrence that starts something going in a new direction’ (a point in
time) (Jones and Wilson 1995: 599). Rudd’s 2008 assertion that the country
stands at ‘the dawn of our Pacific Century’ exemplifies this pattern (Rudd
2008). Once this epoch is under way, it becomes an ‘era’: ‘a time during which

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what started as an epoch continues, building steam, gaining momentum,
becoming established’ (Jones and Wilson 1995: 599). Thus, Stephen Smith
(2008), the Minister for Foreign Affairs, in an address on Australia
India
relations, declared that ‘you are reminded every day that the 21st century is
indeed the Asia-Pacific Century’. Thirdly, once the Pacific Century era is over, it
would then be identified as a (historical) ‘period’; think, for example, of the
‘interwar period’ or the ‘Tudor period’. Lastly, the concept is also cyclical, often
re-emerging at important centurial markers, in a fin-de-sie`cle atmosphere. Thus,
the concept appears in many temporal guises.

Determining when the Pacific Century began, or will begin, is therefore a

tricky proposition: What time ‘period’ is most appropriate to assign to the
Pacific Century? Since the notion inextricably binds itself to a ‘century’ as the
operative time span, one is charged with assigning a clear-cut 100-year period to
fit the ideological conception. Although, as mentioned earlier, there are several
potential historical periods contending for the label ‘Pacific Century’, dating
back to Portuguese navigator Ferdinand Magellan’s ingression into the Pacific
Ocean in 1521, or the activities of the Dutch East India Company (VOC) from
the end of the sixteenth century, the vast majority of the discourse is based upon
the twentieth and twenty-first centuries.

Frank Gibney, writing in 1992, identified the end of the twentieth century as

marking the beginning of the Pacific Century. He presented a strong case,
contending that the period of sequential Japanese, Korean, and Chinese
economic modernisations from the 1960s to the 1990s, plus the rise of other
newly industrialising economies such as Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, and
Hong Kong, was ushering in the Pacific Century. In this respect, the epoch of
economic take-off in the 1980s ‘primed the pump’ for the materialising twenty-
first-century Pacific era. Mark Borthwick (1998: 1) declaims that ‘the next
century may bear the sobriquet of the great ocean, but it will be the product of
the century that is now passing’. Other scholars identify the start of the
twentieth century as the catalyst, the beginning point for the ‘rise of the East’
and the corresponding ‘descent of the West’ (Ferguson 2007). Korhonen (1996:
49) posits that ‘[t]he Russo-Japanese War of 1904
1905 changed with one
stroke the strategic landscape of the Pacific and the atmosphere of discussion’.
At the very time when Oswald Spengler was brooding over the ‘decline of the
West’, Theodore Roosevelt claimed that ‘[t]he Pacific Era, destined to be
the greatest of all, is just at its dawn’ (Spengler 1922: 1). Whether one looks to
the start or the end of the twentieth century for the commencement of a Pacific
epoch, Borthwick (1998: 1) concludes: ‘Used most frequently with reference to
the future, the term more accurately reflects the past’.

Yet, there are further conceptual caveats to be considered. Korhonen (1996:

43) asserts that ‘[t]ime is measured in terms of centuries. Progress, on the scale
of civilisations, cannot be discerned with shorter time periods’. Yet, from a
critical perspective it is not essential to be bound by centurial mileposts. The
notion of a Pacific Century as literally a 100-year bloc permits us to determine

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a start point in 1980, for example, but, without a perspective from 2080, it is
impossible to be anything more than conjectural. Following a less constrained
interpretation, it does not even have to equal precisely 100 years. Consider, for
example, the so-called ‘Hundred’ Years War (1337
1453) in European history,
or Eric Hobsbawm’s (1994) The Age of Extremes: The Short Twentieth
Century, 1914
1991 in terms of academic composition. Viewed from a non-
Western, specifically Chinese perspective, the operative module of time was not
‘centuries’ at all, until they adopted it as a measurement of time or shiji in the
twentieth century.

3

The Chinese thought in terms of imperial dynasties from

the Xia (2200
1750

BC

) to the Qing (1644
1911), as did the Japanese. Finally,

the ancient Greeks made a conceptual distinction between two forms of time.
While chronos simply appertains to the quantitative measurement of chron-
ological or sequential time, kairos is employed to capture an opportune or
‘supreme moment’*

/

an epoch in which something qualitatively distinctive

transpires. According to Eric White (1987: 13), kairos refers to ‘a passing
instant when an opening appears which must be driven through with force if
success is to be achieved’. This conforms well with the ideological visions of the
Pacific Century enumerated above.

Yet, there is one last constituency one must take into account*

/

those sceptics

who believe a ‘Pacific Century’ is not being experienced at all. Chris Dixon and
David Drakakis-Smith (1995: 75) contend that ‘[i]n most cases assertions that
the ‘‘Pacific Century’’ has either arrived or is imminent have been largely
unsupported’ (see also Kraar 1999). Writing in 1999, Foot and Walter (1999:
269) declared that ‘the Pacific century has not arrived and is not likely any time
soon’ (see also Hick 2005).

A ‘place’

The last parameter to be considered is spatial. The vision must be bound to a
definite region. What comprises the ‘Pacific region’? This may be self-evident to
a geographer, but there is surprisingly little consensus on how the region is
politically demarcated, replicating the difficulties faced in defining ‘Europe’, for
example. Dixon and Drakakis-Smith (1995: 75) argue that ‘regional definitions
are notoriously difficult to establish’. This is compounded by the diverse
geographical descriptors applied to this particular region. The terms ‘Asia-
Pacific’ and ‘Pacific Rim’ appear to be the most popular appellations for
classifying the region (but the correlatives ‘Pacific Asia’ and ‘Pacific Basin’ are
also encountered). However, ‘they are seldom clearly defined and all too often
used as interchangeable’ (ibid.). This is problematic, since without clear
definitions it is difficult to specify the exact referent under study.

The term preferred by many IR scholars, including this one*

/

‘Asia-

Pacific’*

/

tends to signify all the states of the Western seaboard of the Pacific

Ocean, plus the Indian subcontinent (‘South Asia’) and the United States. For

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Barry Desker (2008: 56), ‘[i]t includes the countries located on and within the
edges of the Pacific Ocean, as well as India, which is beginning to play an
important role in the politics of the region’. In other words, the Asia-Pacific
includes all the APEC members, plus India. The remainder of the American
continent and the smaller island groupings of the South Pacific figure only in the
most marginal capacity, if at all. The term ‘Pacific Rim’, once popular, appears
to be falling out of use. This designation would not include any state that does
not border on the Pacific Ocean and would reinstate the importance of the
Pacific islands and Latin America, while excluding India and land-locked Asia.
In both cases, however, the exact boundaries for territorial inclusion/exclusion
and delimitation are often blurred.

Why specify a ‘region’ as a referent for inquiry? Under the interdisciplinary

rubric of ‘area studies’, geographical regions of the world are increasingly
viewed as coherent ‘units of analysis’ in their own right (see, for example,
Beeson 2007; Dent 2008; Farrell et al. 2005; Frost 2008; Kuijper 2008; Pempel
2005; Soderbaum and Shaw 2003). Rodrigo Tavares (2008: 107) argues that
‘[i]mportant aspects of international politics tend to be regional rather than
fully global or exclusively national’. The tendency toward ‘regionalism’ is thus
becoming widespread in IR. Take the ‘regional security complex’ concept
developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver (2003), for example.

4

This

exemplifies the recognition that regions and subregions demonstrate distinct
transnational (and transregional) interaction patterns, through the movement of
people, goods, and knowledge; known as ‘globalisation’ (or perhaps ‘regiona-
lisation’, in this case). Fernand Braudel’s (1972) Mediterranean world is one
such (historical) example, and one that finds a parallel in the Pacific region. The
legacy of trading networks and ethno-political divisions established by the
Western colonial powers since the Vasco da Gama epoch is still present in
certain regional affinities and animosities.

Again, from a critical perspective, precise geographical demarcations may

not be strictly necessary to operationalise the concept, since Bjo¨rn Hettne
argues, after all, that

there are no ‘natural’ regions: definitions of a ‘region’ vary according to the
problem or question under investigation. Moreover, it is widely accepted
that it is how political actors perceive and interpret the idea of region and
notions of ‘regionness’ that is critical: all regions are socially constructed and
hence politically contested (Hettne 2005: 544).

Moreover, Arif Dirlik (1995: 135) alerts us to the fact that ‘[d]efinitions

of the Pacific are part of the very struggle over the Pacific they seek to
describe’. This demonstrates that regions are social constructs designed to
serve some ideological or otherwise political purpose. Rudd’s conception of the
‘Asia-Pacific Century/Community’ is no different, in that it defines the region
according to Canberra’s preference to act as a ‘middle-power’ bridge between

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East Asia and the Anglo-Saxon powers of the Pacific, namely the United States
and Oceania. Thus, he declares that ‘[f]or the first time in the settled history of
this continent, we find ourselves in the region that will be at the centre of global
affairs’ (cited in Colebatch 2008). This provides the necessary spatial arena on
which to project the political visions of the Asia-Pacific Century/Community.
Thus, it ‘maps political; desire onto geography’ (Poole 2006: 27).

Summary

This section shows us that the concept of an imminent Pacific Century has
always been deployed in a certain historical, political, and cultural milieu. It is
an ideational and largely subjective term: it is coined by some party for some
scheme, recalling Robert Cox’s (1986: 207) maxim that ‘theory is always for
someone and for some purpose’; that is, there is ‘no view from nowhere’. Unlike
the monikers ‘American Century’, ‘Chinese Century’ and ‘Asian Century’,
which are explicitly ethnocentric conceptions (and distinctly competitive
attempts at ‘speech acts’), the ‘Pacific Century’ has the merit of being inclusive,
and thus more universally acceptable. Note that the article employs the term
‘Pacific Century’ rather than ‘Asia-Pacific’ or ‘Chinese’ Century, in order to
maintain continuity with its previous usage, but demonstrates throughout how
the parameters of the concept in its most recent manifestation have changed
accordingly.

PART II: Pax sinica 1949
2049: a Chinese-led new ‘Pacific Century’?

This section first establishes the parameters of the author’s chosen ‘Pacific
Century’ as an empirical referent for study, informed by the analytical
framework presented above. This is followed first by an application of the
‘traditional’ (realist and pluralist) and then ‘critical’ schools of IR theory to the
concept. We thus enter the second and third debates encompassed in the article:
‘rationalism versus constructivism’ and ‘rising China’, framed within the
context of the first debate on the ‘Pacific Century’, outlined above.

Recognising that certain concepts can be tractable*

/

even contestable*

/

is one

thing, yet in order to proceed with a cogent and sustainable argument, one must
take a position. In order to lend some coherency to the following analysis,
I have decided to set the following parameters and priorities. First, the thesis
expounded and case study to be interrogated here are the idea of a Chinese-led
Pacific Century.

5

Parag Khanna (2008: 257) asserts that ‘[t]he Pacific era will be

led by China*

/

and no one else’. Even as far back as 1809, Emperor Napoleon

predicted: ‘Quand la Chine s’e´veillera, le monde entier tremblera’ (‘When China
awakes, the whole world will tremble’) (Peyrefitte 1980). The tremors are now
unmistakable. Policy makers are alive to China’s growing potential and the ‘rise
of China’ debate has gathered huge momentum in the field of IR (see, for

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example, Kang 2007; Overholt 1993; Sutter 2005). Kenneth Lieberthal,
Director of the China Institute of the University of Michigan, says of the
Chinese: ‘I think they believe that the 21st century is China’s century’ (cited in
Elliott 2007: 34). A recent article, ‘The Chinese Century’, in Time (2007)
indicates that this notion has now also entered the popular consciousness. This
vision therefore portends the coming of pax sinica, spreading across Asia and
beyond, into the Pacific world.

Second, in designating a time frame for this Pacific Century, I have opted for

the chronological period 1949
2050 in a compromise between the historians,
ideologues, and futurologists, and in accord with the notion of a kairos,
extrapolated above. My rationale for selecting this time frame is as follows. The
epoch opens with Mao Zedong proclaiming to the masses gathered in
Tiananmen Square that ‘China has stood up’. The People’s Liberation Army’s
victory in the Chinese Civil War (1945
9) represented the unification of the
mainland under a strong state, with the Communists declaring this a moment of
‘national salvation’ (geming jiuguo) (Weng 2000: 100). The government of the
following decades, for all its imperfections, created an integrity and cohesion to
the Chinese polity that laid the foundations for the economic ‘take-off’ under
Deng Xiaoping to the booming China of today. The denouement of China’s
Pacific era will occur by the mid twenty-first century, appropriately the
centennial of the end of the ‘century of humiliation’ (1840s
1940s), where
China was subject to quasi-colonisation by the Western powers. The year 2050,
by some estimates, also represents the point when the Chinese economy will
overtake the US economy, with all the implications that entails (Fengming
2006). In the teleological rhetoric of the Communists, this will represent the
realisation of gaige xingguo (‘national prosperity’) for the Chinese people. Since
the period straddles the recent past, the present, and looks toward the future, it
is highly amenable to IR theories and presents much material for consideration.

Evidently, the organising idea of this Pacific Century places the People’s

Republic of China at the core of the following analysis, since in Borthwick’s
view (1998: 546), it is ‘China’s resurgence . . . that poses the central questions
for the coming Pacific Century’ (emphasis added). There is strong justification
for this. The People’s Republic of China is now an economic powerhouse
fundamental to the wider notion of Asian resurgence as it is embodied in the
Pacific Century vision. However, this is not to suggest that the unfolding Pacific
Century era is in any way confined exclusively to the so-called ‘Middle
Kingdom’. David Kang declares that ‘the Rest of Asia is increasingly tied up
with China’s rise’ (cited in Pan 2006). For example, it is estimated that when the
economies of Japan and Korea are added to the Chinese, the three together will
account for 50 percent of the world’s gross domestic product by 2050 (Desai
2006). Nor should we overlook India as a major player in the dawning Pacific
Century, defined broadly. Seema Desai (2006) affirms that ‘India has the
potential to raise its US dollar income per capita in 2050 to 35 times current
levels’. Though China occupies centre stage (especially for realists), readers

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should be alert to the major roles also played by Japan, South Korea, and India,
though space restrictions here preclude their detailed discussion.

Traditional versus critical interpretations of China’s new Pacific Century

With the analytical framework derived from the first conceptual debate having
established the parameters of the new Chinese-led Pacific Century, we now
arrive at the intersection of the second and third debates in this article, within
this context. The article now interrogates the China case from a variety of IR
perspectives. The nature and prospects of the Pacific Century look rather
different depending on which school of IR one consults. This section first
considers how the ‘traditional’ IR approaches of realism and pluralism view
the concept before turning to the alternative conceptions offered by ‘critical’
theorists (here incorporating elements of constructivism, postmodernism,
Marxism, and feminism) (see, for example, Wæver 1996).

6

All these perspectives

concentrate on different aspects and offer contrasting scenarios for the
unfolding Pacific Century, thus illustrating in their application the key
characteristics of the ‘great debate’ between the traditional/rationalist and
critical/reflectivist traditions of the IR discipline. Although the first section treads
some familiar ground on the ‘rising China’ case, it is important to consider the
traditional perspectives in order to recognise the ‘mainstream’ debate on rising
China, and to set the context for the reflectivist critique that follows.

‘Traditional’ perspectives: realism and pluralism

The realist image of the new Pacific Century places a strong emphasis on rising
Chinese power and offers a somewhat pessimistic outlook for the future. This is
not surprising given its introspective philosophical foundations, based upon the
writings of Thucydides, Niccolo Machiavelli, and Thomas Hobbes, all of whom
concentrated upon the more negative traits of human and state behaviour
(Hobbes 1958; Machiavelli 1981; Thucydides 1972). Realist analysis prioritises
issues of ‘high politics’*

/

military security, state diplomacy, and great power

rivalry.

7

Above all, it is concerned with shifts in the international ‘balance of

power’ (Walt 1987; Waltz 1979). With respect to the Pacific region, analysts
identify that a structural shift is under way, in which China will eventually
equal, if not exceed, the aggregate power of the United States, thus ‘threatening’
the current hegemon (Galen Carpenter 2006). Offensive realists, such as John
Mearsheimer (2003), highlight the propensity for states to maximise their
power. It is well known that the achievement of ‘comprehensive national
power’ (zonge guoli) is an important facet of Beijing’s grand strategy to realise
its Chinese Century (Pillsbury 2000). These factors will result in a ‘security
dilemma’*

/

a condition of exacerbated mistrust between the United States and

its allies and a newly powerful People’s Republic of China. Realist balance of

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power theory predicts that this will spur the formation of competing alliance
blocs. Indeed, it could be argued that this dynamic is already taking shape, as
seen from the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
in 1996 and the inauguration of a tighter US
Japanese
Australian trilateral
relationship in 2006 (Wilkins 2007, 2010).

From the realist viewpoint, there are two possible consequences of this trend.

The contest for superiority could remain ‘cold’, like the stand-off between the
United States and the USSR from 1947
91. This would still likely involve
another regional, if not global, arms race. As China’s economy grows, it is
devoting increasing resources to its defence budget in order to achieve a
‘Revolution in Military Affairs with Chinese Characteristics’ (Information
Office of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China 2004). The
acquisition of advanced arms from Russia and the recent demonstration of anti-
satellite weapon capabilities are indicative of China’s increasing ‘hard’ power.
Whether mutual nuclear deterrence between China and its rivals will keep
competition stable and non-violent remains to be seen. Other realist commen-
tators believe that China’s rise is occurring in a climate of instability, and that
simmering conflicts could lead to a ‘hot’ (that is, ‘shooting’) war. Aaron
Friedberg (1994; based on John Mearsheimer’s thesis) has sought to draw
parallels between Asia’s ‘future’ and Europe’s ‘past’, especially the period of
international tension prior to 1914. In this scenario, regional flashpoints, such
as the Taiwan Strait, the Spratly Islands, or even North Korea, could act as the
spark that lights the powder keg of general war, reminiscent of the 1914
assassination in Sarajevo. Thus, Samuel Huntington concludes that ‘Asia has
replaced Europe as the principal area of instability and political conflict’ (cited
in Martin 2006: 59).

In both the ‘cold’ and ‘hot’ rivalry scenarios, a key challenge is how to

incorporate the reawakening Chinese ‘giant’ into the existing regional and
international order. Again, historical parallels with Europe have been drawn,
particularly the problem of assimilating a powerful and united Germany into
the European system from 1871 onwards. As Desker (2008: 57) notes: ‘The rise
of great powers and the challenge they pose to existing hegemons have been
marked by violence throughout history’. The Chinese Communist Party is also
mindful of the failed Japanese bid to realise its concept of Hakko¯ Ichiu (‘four
corners of the world under one [Japanese] roof’) through military force and the
Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere project during the 1930s
1940s. Beijing
is acutely aware of these analogies and its declared foreign policy of Zhongguo
heping jueqi means ‘peaceful rise’.

8

Realist sceptics naturally assume this to be

thinly disguised realpolitik that conceals future hegemonic ambitions. They note
that, based upon the writings of Sun Zi, the Chinese are past masters in the art
of strategic deception (Clavell 1981; Sawyer 2007). It will be remembered that
Deng Xiaoping once exhorted the country to ‘hide its ambitions and disguise its
claws’ (taoguang yanghui) (Xinhua, 2007).

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Pluralists of all persuasions alight on the prospects for regional peace and

prosperity and are less transfixed by the spectre of Chinese pre-eminence than
the realists.

9

Pluralism takes the writings of John Locke (1979) and Immanuel

Kant (2005) (among others) as its philosophical points of reference. Rather than
concentrating on the relative benefits to be gained by individual state
competition, they are more transnational in approach, focusing on the absolute
benefits that may be enjoyed by all through enhanced regional cooperation.
This also includes a consensus on the need to move beyond state-centric military
conceptions of security to incorporate economic, environmental, and human
concerns onto the regional security agenda.

10

There are several overlapping

‘liberal’, ‘institutionalist’, and ‘idealist’ props to the overall vision of the
pluralists with regard to the Pacific Century.

First, liberals identify that due to the process of globalisation*

/

especially its

economic dimension*

/

a condition of ‘complex interdependence’ now exists

between Asia-Pacific nations. Robert Manning and Paula Stern argue:

The widespread hope is that the compelling force of geo-economics and
information age flows of capital, information, and people is creating a new
calculus and redefining interests in the Pacific in a way that will offer new
possibilities for cooperation (Manning and Stern 1994: 93).

The close interconnection between economics and security will ensure both a

prosperous and peaceful coming Pacific Century. Since all the developed or
developing states in the regions are dependent upon one another for trade,
investment, and markets, any state contemplating an initiation of military
conflict will be inhibited by the economic damage it would inflict upon itself.
Peace will therefore obtain. China is playing a crucial role in this respect.
Beijing’s Zhongguo heping jueqi foreign policy and the principles of its ‘new
security concept’ are illustrative of this thinking (Li and Wei 1997). According
to Esther Pan (2006): ‘The policy asserts that China can thrive economically in a
peaceful environment and also serve as a catalyst for global peace.’ Indeed, a
closer look at China’s notion of ‘comprehensive national power’ reveals the
importance that Beijing ascribes to elements of ‘soft’ power, such as language,
culture, and the role of the Chinese diaspora, rather than the military power
potential that captivates realists (Kolantzick 2008). One of the key props of this
‘charm offensive’ is the government establishment of Confucius Institutes
attached to university campuses across the region, including Australia’s most
prestigious institutions. The People’s Republic of China has therefore styled
itself as foremost among the proponents of a pluralist order in the Asia Pacific
seeking a ‘harmonious world’ (hexie shijie).

Second, reinforcing this impetus toward cooperation, institutionalists draw

attention to the capacity of international and multilateral organisations to
govern the region and overcome or resolve disputes between states. Institutions
such as APEC and ASEAN, with all its variants, are key components of regional

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governance. According to Mark Berger and Douglas Borer (1997: 1): ‘APEC is
emerging as a key institutional nexus of liberal . . . visions of the Pacific
Century.’ These institutions serve as a strong foundation upon which an
increasingly comprehensive and effective ‘security community’ may be built in
the future.

11

Kevin Rudd (2007) observes: ‘Whether therefore, the Pacific

Century will in fact be pacific will depend on . . . the robustness of the region’s
as yet fragile institutional architecture.’ This lies at the heart of his vision to
create a regional economic and security community by 2020. However, even the
brightest optimist would concede the idea of a unified and peaceful ‘Pacific
Community’ still has a long way to go due to the uneven economic and political
development of the region. ‘Trade, investment and a Pacific coastline do not
necessarily make for a broader sense of community’, according to Manning and
Stern (1994: 80).

Finally, reinforcing the institutionalist position, idealists contend that the

wider spread of democracy and ongoing democratic reform in the region will
result in a sustainable, even ‘perpetual’, peace in the future. Based upon the
assumption that democracies do not fight each other, the more democratic the
region becomes, the more conflict between states will diminish toward a zero
point (Brown 1996). Although the regimes of Myanmar and North Korea do
little to inspire optimism on this front, the successful transformation of Japan,
South Korea, and Taiwan along democratic lines sets a positive precedent,
one it is hoped that China in particular will emulate. Hung-mao Tien and
Tun-jen Cheng (2000: 15) identify that: ‘In this region . . . the Kantian ‘‘Pacific
Community’’ among liberal states has yet to emerge.’ Since the 1989 Tianan-
men episode, China-watchers avidly search for signs of democratic progress or
regression. Managing an increasingly liberal and pluralist society based on
economic progress but lacking real democratic participation will be perhaps the
key challenge Beijing will have to contend with if it is to achieve its Pacific
Century. At present, the Communist Party leadership have identified this
eventuality as the ‘threat of peaceful evolution’ (heping yanbian), to be guarded
against (Ong 2001).

‘Critical’ perspectives: constructivism/postmodernism, Marxism and feminism

There is little consensus on the exact definition and composition of critical
theories in IR. Many traditionalists would also question their validity and
desirability as IR perspectives, and this ‘inter-paradigm’ debate*

/

the dispute

between the traditional or ‘rationalist’ approaches and the critical or
‘reflectivist’ approaches to IR*

/

forms the ‘third great debate’ in the

discipline.

12

Although the critical theorists/reflectivists vary widely in their

ontological assumptions, priorities, and methodologies, they are broadly
united in their critique of the traditional perspectives above. There is no
dedicated critical literature appertaining to either the Pacific Century or

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rising China debates, but this article will now demonstrate that these
approaches can be readily and profitably applied.

13

Given the enormous

diversity and complexity of critical approaches, some simplification is
necessary. Aspects of social constructivism (extending to postmodernism),
Marxism (including post-colonialism), and feminism are applied here.

14

First, social constructivists argue that reality is created and perpetuated by

social practice and the meaning given to this practice. They encourage us to
reflect upon received wisdom to understand its embedded contexts and multiple
interpretations. Postmodernists go much further to argue that we should
deconstruct all discourse to uncover the hidden ‘regimes of power’ behind it.
From a constructivist standpoint, the nature of China’s rise is expressed in
subjective assessments by realists and liberals. They both examine the same
‘objective’ facts and arrive at completely different interpretations. Why, for
instance, as realists argue, should a more powerful and better-armed China pose
a threat to regional security, while the vastly more destructive power of the
American and Russian arsenals are taken for granted? Ron Huisken (2009: 7)
queries, for example, the Australia Defence White Paper’s ‘unmistakably
alarmist assessment of what China is about to do to order and stability in
East Asia’. Moreover, Kang (2003) implies that this whole approach is
unproductive and suggests that the traditionalists have misinterpreted China’s
intentions and their likely impact. Rather, he points out that the hierarchical
and stratified ‘tribute system’ led by China in East Asia which existed prior to
its destruction by the Western colonial powers in the nineteenth century was
remarkably stable and peaceful. This creates a precedent for the harmonious
regional order Beijing claims to be seeking.

Postmodernists call into question all discourse as it appertains to IR analysis.

For example, who has the power to brand North Korea a ‘rogue state’ or Falun
Gong a ‘terrorist group’, and what are the motivations for such labelling?
Passive acceptance of this discourse implies complicity with certain agendas and
the foreclosing of other possibilities. The final two critical perspectives further
illustrate these points. Above all, it is worth reflecting on the nature of the
concept ‘Pacific Century’ as being bound to certain perceptions or agendas, as
posited earlier. There exists no tangible physical entity called the ‘Pacific
Century’ that is amenable to analysis in the ‘positivist’ sense of the natural
sciences. Rather, it is a ‘social construction’ that implies certain accepted
understandings and their replication. We must therefore recognise that the
whole notion as conceived by the traditional schools is embedded in a distinct
analytical context*

/

‘dominant currents in Western social science thought

contributed to its propagation and reception’ (Foot and Walter 1999: 268).

With this in mind, let us explore some further examples and contradictions

appertaining to the Pacific Century/China debates. The first section of this
article detailed how the twentieth-century debate on the Pacific Century centred
on the expansion of the Pacific Rim economies and the potential challenge to
American pre-eminence posed by Japan in the 1980s. The present terms of

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discourse are contested. While I have employed the term ‘Pacific Century’ as an
umbrella term on account of its greater familiarity to the reader, there are two
other iterations currently offering contending versions on the theme. First are
the proponents of an ‘Asian Century’, championed by Mahbubani and others,
who seek to cast the coming Pacific Century as an exclusively Asian
achievement. They wish to omit the United States and Oceania from this
vision, both in ideational and material terms (for example, exclusion from
regional organisations). This stands at odds with the new Australia-championed
vision of the ‘Asia-Pacific Century’, in which the United States and Oceanic
powers are firmly embedded, both in the vision and in the regional institutional
architecture (see above, pp. 389
90). The enunciation of an ‘Asia-Pacific
Century’ not only has the virtue of extending the project to India but, in
deference to the former variation, also accords Asia a greater measure of
recognition and respect.

It is interesting to note on closer inspection how this more inclusive,

communitarian vision of an ‘Asia-Pacific Century/Community’ has paradoxi-
cally taken on a realist bent. It would appear that the Australian Defence White
Paper wittingly or unwittingly seeks to ‘securitise’ or even ‘militarise’ the Asia-
Pacific Century, as evinced by Canberra’s planned military build-up, which
occurs in correlation with Beijing’s military modernisation. Thus, despite its
phatic overtones, the Pacific Century is something one needs to be prepared for,
or to defend against. On the other hand, liberal versions of Chinese soft-power-
based peace in the region may be overstated. ‘Peaceful rise/development’, ‘new
security concept’ and ‘harmonious world’ are, after all, prime examples
of speech acts designed to set the terms of discourse in Beijing’s terms. Despite
such charm offensives as the 2008 Olympics, China’s authoritarian government
attracts few admirers, nor does it possess any ideology that holds widespread
appeal.

Thirdly, Marxist theorists focus on the economic and class injustices that

qualify some of the reports of glowing prosperity integral to the Pacific Century
vision. Increasing diffusion of the capitalist ‘world system’ across the Asia-
Pacific is creating divisions between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have-nots’ (Wallerstein
2004). The fruits of the Pacific Century have yet to be enjoyed by all the region’s
states, and even huge sections within these states themselves. China is a case in
point. The accumulating prosperity of the urban coastal belt of China, the
gaige xingguo of Chinese ideologues, is not reaching the vast swath of the
interior rural heartland. According to a recent government survey, 200 million
Chinese subsist on less than US$1 a day, the standard indicator of poverty.
Rural inhabitants on average earn less than a third of their urban counterparts
and suffer from correspondingly low levels of education and mortality, a
situation exacerbated by widespread corruption (National Bureau of Statistics,
cited in Telegraph 2006). The resultant mass internal migrations and the rural
protest movements that are developing have the potential to derail the Chinese
Century if the Communist Party fails to address them adequately, according to

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Susan Shirk (2007). History points toward social upheaval or revolution when
rising economic, social, or political expectations remain unfulfilled*

/

for

example, in the Russian revolutions of 1905 and 1917. Indeed, the very
legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party government itself may depend not
only on uninterrupted economic growth, but also a more egalitarian distribu-
tion of its fruits.

In the broader perspective of class iniquity, what advanced countries like

Japan or the United States consider ‘cheap labour’*

/

such as factory workers in

China*

/

looks more like ‘labour exploitation’ to others, even neocolonial

profiteering. Therefore, closely tied to questions of poverty and exploitation
is a refocusing, first championed by Ken Booth (2005), on notions of ‘human
security’. Booth contends that the military-economic security concerns of the
traditionalists fail to reflect the security of the individual*

/

the right to dignity,

health, education, civil rights, and protection from persecution. This view
therefore accords the priority to a Pacific Century for all, based on social
‘justice’.

Finally, the feminist approach to the Pacific Century in IR draws attention to

the continued gender inequalities in countries of the Asia-Pacific. The condition
of ‘structural violence’*

/

the physical and emotional abuse that many women

still continue to suffer in the region*

/

is sometimes allied to their ‘second-class

citizen’ status and lack of educational or economic opportunity in certain
countries (Tickner 1992). In the first instance, female infanticide (often through
‘selective abortions’) in China (and India) is not only morally abhorrent but is
resulting in a major demographic gender imbalance. In the second respect,
women in China still experience discrimination and limits to their career
advancement, especially in more patriarchal rural areas. Li Xiaoyun of
China Agricultural University records that ‘gender inequality still commonly
exists in almost all social aspects including political power, education, health,
employment and assets possession’ (Xinhua 2005). This dynamic is not
confined to Chinese society, but is also marked in highly advanced nations
such as Japan with its so-called ‘rice paper ceiling’ for women. As a result,
feminists would argue that the Pacific Century mainly represents yet another
male-dominated project in which injustices against women are not addressed.

Conclusions

The first section of this article sought to gain purchase on the ‘Pacific Century’
concept through the creation of an originally designed analytical framework to
define and structure our understanding of its multiple meanings and uses. The
second section, in applying this framework to the case study of a new Chinese-
led Pacific Century in tandem with traditional and critical IR approaches,
demonstrates the efficacy of the framework and the rich explanatory power
brought to the table by the competing IR schools. Through the synergy of the

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‘Pacific Century’, ‘rising China’ and ‘third great IR’ debates, an elaborate and
nuanced analysis may be brought to bear on this multifaceted subject.

In particular, the first section showed that the Pacific Century is a

sophisticated and tractable concept. By drawing together the disparate strands
of the Pacific Century debate and schematising them into a dedicated analytical
framework, a more coherent understanding can be achieved. By structuring the
concept according to its ideological, temporal, and spatial parameters, it reveals
the coexistence and tensions between the term ‘Pacific Century’ as a political (or
‘normative’) enterprise and an intellectual (or ‘objective’) frame of reference.
The concept has been employed to capture the Zeitgeist of a perceived epoch-
making experience. Its exact dimensions will be determined largely by
whichever state is in the ‘driving seat’ of the Pacific Century at that given
time, whether it be Japan and the United States in the past, or Asia/China in the
present. Regardless of its occasional repackaging as ‘Asian’ or ‘Asia-Pacific’
Century, the basic premise reoccurs. It is important that we not lose sight of this
much maligned term as a result of its diminution after the temporary setback of
the Asian financial crash of 1997
8 and current global financial crisis. As
Korhonen (1996: 69) notes: ‘When more difficult times have arrived, the vision
has always disappeared from discussion.’ Nevertheless, the longevity of the
concept is assured. In the 1850s, William H. Seward, future US Secretary of
State, was credited with prophesying that ‘the Pacific Ocean, its shores, its
islands, and adjacent territories will become the chief theater of human events
and activities in the world’s great hereafter’ (cited in Korhonen 1996: 45
6).
Whatever the time span, the general trend toward a Pacific Century (or its
Chines, Asian, or Asia-Pacific variants) still obtains. As Arnold Toynbee (1948):
55) observed: ‘civilisation is a movement, and not a condition, a voyage, not
a harbour’.

The second section of the article, after applying the analytical framework to

depict a new Chinese-led Pacific Century, investigated the utility of competing
IR approaches toward interpreting its significance and likely trajectories. The
analysis has shown that due to its ideological roots, it is the pluralist approach
that is most compatible with the teleological aspects of the ‘Pacific Century’
concept, focusing optimistically on institutional cooperation and the economic
prosperity. This, of course, presupposes that economic advancement is not
disrupted, and current indictors on this score are not positive, in light of the
global recession. Desker (2008: 60) points out that ‘the worst case scenario is
where China’s economy collapses, its political situation implodes, and it
embraces a military adventurism that wreaks havoc on the regional order’.
Thus, the liberal vision succumbs to realist predictions. Realists, of course,
argue in any case that a Chinese-led Pacific Century will incubate great power
rivalry and potential regional conflict. For them, ‘[t]he Pacific century may turn
out to be far from peaceful’ (The Economist 1995).

The critical approaches in some ways see this peace/conflict dyad as a

false dichotomy. Constructivist and postmodernist approaches question the

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embedded meanings of a Pacific Century, its implicit agendas, and reveal the
contest for control of the conceptual discourse evident in competing rhetorical
labels. Thus, the contending Pacific, Asia-Pacific, Asian, and Chinese Century
‘speech acts’ all hold differing emphases and different connotations. Marxists
and feminists argue for a reconstitution of any traditionalist liberal or power-
based order, and its transformation into a more just and inclusive one. From
this standpoint, the Pacific Century would therefore incorporate those excluded
or underprivileged in the traditional approaches*

/

the economically disadvan-

taged and women.

Notes

1.

The term ‘Pacific Century’ has often been accompanied by the term ‘Pacific Community’,
though the two are not synonymous. For debate on the separate issues of ‘Asia-Pacific
Civilisation’ and ‘Asia-Pacific Community’, see Manning and Stern (1994) and Yamazaki
(1996).

2.

These variations on the theme each involve nuances in how the thesis is organised and
advanced, but I have decided here to employ the term ‘Pacific Century’ both as a departure
point from which to frame the debate and to act as a permissible umbrella term to broadly
encompass the differentiations above (see Dirlik 1995).

3.

Thanks to Edward Melillo for the introduction of this term.

4.

A term identified in Buzan (1991) to facilitate security analysis of particular regions or
‘subregions’. This is further elaborated in Adib-Moghaddam (2006) and Buzan and Wæver
(2003).

5.

For a popular overview, see Shenkar (2005); for IR analysis, see Scott (2008); and for
a historical overview, see Spence and Chin (1996). India, though potentially a major
player, does not at present have the capacity to lead the Pacific Century due to a number
of serious structural weaknesses. Moreover, it is only debatably part of the ‘Asia-Pacific’
region.

6.

The basic tenets of the varying IR schools will be familiar to those working in the field (see
Baylis and Smith 2005; Steans and Pettiford 2005).

7.

Space precludes a detailed separation of all of the variants of the realist school. For ‘classical’
realism, see Wight (1978); for its neo-realist variant, see Buzan et al. (1993).

8.

See the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China at Bwww.
fmprc.gov.cn/eng/default.htm . For a critique, see Pan (2006).

9.

‘Pluralism’ is an umbrella term for several related branches of thought in IR, including
liberalism, neo-liberalism, intuitionalism, idealism and the ‘English School’. All are affiliated
with an overall liberal ‘world view’ (see, as starting points, Keohane and Nye 1977;
Moravcsik 1997).

10.

For an introduction to ‘soft security’ and the ‘broad’ security agenda, see Buzan (1991).

11.

There exists a dense network of regional organisations with varying memberships. For a
conceptual overview, see Acharya (2007) and Aggarwal and Morrison (1998).

12.

The previous great debates of IR centred on ‘realism versus idealism’ and ‘traditionalism
versus behaviouralism’ (see Steans and Pettiford 2005: 182
3).

13.

It is impossible to even begin unravelling the debate here (see Roach 2007;Weber 2004).

14.

For a sample of introductory texts, see Guzzini and Leander (2006); Jarvis (2000);
Kubalkova and Cruickshank (1989); Ling (2002) and Steans (1998). Space precludes
mention of the philosophical influences on each school.

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