A Different Plan of Action Depending on the Opponent

It can be very frustrating when you believe you are playing well enough to beat the bulk of the players at the table but still lose. This is amplified in the loose California middle-limit hold'em games in which drawouts can drive you to near insanity. An area in which many decent players miss out on profits is poor choice of action based on who is contesting the pot.

The better your opposition, the more flexibility and options you have in playing your hand. Most recreational players are not trying hard enough to play well. Therefore, your creativity goes unnoticed and the message you are intending to convey through your check, bet, or check-raise is not considered in their counteraction. As an example, let's say you raise from early position before the flop with pocket jacks and get two callers, one of whom is a strong and aware player (on the button), while the other is somewhat clueless and doesn't give much consideration to your raise. Both players are behind you. When the flop comes ace high with three different suits, you have an important decision to make. Do you bet out, representing the ace, or check and see what develops? Threehanded, I favor betting out. The recreational player will likely call you with any pair or any draw and not really wonder too much about what you have. The good player, on the other hand, will note that you are representing that the ace paired you. He may test you with a raise to take control of the hand and see what kind of reaction it evokes.

Obviously, the raise from a strong player who has position on you with that ace hanging over your jacks will likely cause you concern. If you don't three-bet it here, you communicate a fear of the ace, especially if a flush draw didn't flop (his raise may have represented a four-flush in that case). What you choose to do on the turn will usually clearly define your hand, and this is the strength of the strong player. He is pushing on you to see how the resistance affects you. He is putting you in the defensive position.

Three-betting represents a risk because it likely won't drive out the clueless guy in between you, and that very fact neutralizes your options. If the guy between you was more aware, a reraise might create enough pressure for him to fold and for you to seize back control of the hand from the good player. At that point, you would bet the turn and follow through with your message that you have at least A-K, and possibly a set.

In the case (still threehanded) of let's say a queen falling on the turn that puts a flush draw on the board, I believe it would be a huge mistake to bet. In fact, facing two overcards and a possible flush draw, I generally favor folding to any bet at this point unless you feel certain the strong player is totally bluffing. If so, now a check-raise may be enough pressure to drive out the middle player. What you are trying to say with a check-raise is that the queen just gave you two pair or a set. The risk is that the clueless player may have a tough time mucking if he holds an ace, especially in middle-limit land. But at least by jamming the double bet in his face, you significantly increase the chance that he will let it go, especially if your image is good. If he calls the bet and raise, he may make it correct for the good player to stick around based on the swelling pot. If both of these guys see the river, you can bet that your jacks are a loser. I recommend checking the river and folding if faced with a bet.

Let's play it out as though your check-raise did force the middle guy to fold and now your lone opponent is wondering whether or not to call the raise. If you sense that he genuinely has a hand, perhaps a weak ace, you have played the hand brilliantly, because you are very close to forcing a better hand to fold. If he calls, you almost have to bet out on the end and remain committed to the message that you have the best hand. About the only card that would prevent me from betting is another ace, since he won't likely let go of trips based on the pot size. Still, I may bet in this case if I believe he holds a queen and the second ace scares him.

Let's look at the hand as though you bet out from early position and only the recreational player called. Now, you're heads up against a passive and predictable fellow, but you have almost no leverage. What I mean by that is that if he holds an ace, he's not going anywhere. If the flop paired him, he'll likely call you down. So, the mystery is to figure out if he has an ace, at which point I want to check it down cheaply, or is still trailing the jacks, in which case I want to make him pay for his chasing. And this one discriminate decision is how lots of players cost themselves substantial profit. They either continue betting all the way and lose to the paired ace, or back off too quickly and give their opponent two free chances to outdraw. You must intuit every situation like this to avoid losing money or missing bets!

Tip: It is very common for weak players who have flopped an ace to call quickly with virtually no hesitation. Notice this!

If, on the other hand, you bet out on the flop and the weaker opponent folds but the strong player calls, an entirely different mentality is required. First and foremost, good players don't cold-call raises from decent players in early position without thinking carefully about how their hand will likely hold up. When we get called after that ace has flopped, I recommend being very careful about betting the turn. Going back, if we are raised by the strong player, I like the idea of a three-bet and an automatic bet on the turn, because the message is so strong and pronounced. When the guy just calls us on the flop, he is using his positional advantage well, again forcing us to define our hand by being passive. As such, I favor checking and calling or mucking, depending on where I sense this opponent is at. Many good players will bet if the turn is checked, capitalizing on the display of weakness, but will then check down the river with a marginal hand.

In conclusion, you must be able to size up an opponent very quickly into the game. I believe 80 percent of all players can be categorized within 20 minutes, based on how many hands they play, how aggressive they are, how they handle their chips and cards, and their overall physical demeanor. Having some rough idea of how they play, you must act in each hand and situation in ways that increase your probability of winning the pot by influencing the action of your opponents. Or, if recognizing that your actions are not noticed/considered, adjust to minimize risk, and therefore losses. This is a rudimentary aspect of developing what champion players call "feel."

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