16th Lecture - When To Stay And When To Quit

When To Stay And When To Quit

The following lecture was the 16th in the series, held January 12, 1999, and later appeared in
Card Player magazine

When to Keep Playing and When to Quit Playing

I can't stand it! I'm going on tilt! And it has nothing whatsoever to do with poker. Or does it?

Obviously, I'm talking about the Los Angeles Times. What else could possibly put the Mad
Genius on tilt? Let me ask you a question. What would you think if I taught you how to
position your hold 'em hand so that winning energy could rush up through the cards and invite
a harmonious flop? What if I told you - quite seriously - that you should sit in a chair facing
southwest or that if someone had ever died who had previously played in your seat, that seat
inherited bad luck.

If I told you any of that, would you think that I'm an expert? No? Well, then why the hell
should anyone read the Los Angeles Times and think that it imparts any expertise
whatsoever? It is soiled and sullied, and I'll tell you why. On the front page of the Sunday
Real Estate section a feature has appeared about Feng Shui by Kirsten M Lagatree. This is the
newspaper many trust to give them accurate information about building trends, mortgage
rates, housing prices, and more. But here comes this column that provides advice to a
potential buyer of a home where a death had occurred, "This house, where so much tragedy
has occurred, is permanently scarred. Even if you hired the most learned feng shui master on
the globe to perform cleansing and purifying rituals, you'd still have a house with a
tremendous amount of negative energy." Do you see what I'm getting at? This is not a just-
for-fun feature. It is dead serious, and if I used Card Player to promote anything similarly
idiotic about poker, you'd rip the pages to pieces. And you should.

A logical person might say only that the house could have diminished value because other
people might consider it to have negative energy. But, no. The Times is providing a service,
informing us of negative energy. Not an opinion piece - a regular feature meant to inform.
Lagatree then went on to devalue my home by advising potential buyers that "a sloped ceiling
can be oppressive… and a source of negative (sha) chi." Don't know what that is. Don't wanna
know. But she said it could result in marital or health problems. Ridiculous? So what? So, this
is the Los Angeles Times, people. And you thought I was nuts when I warned you a couple
years ago about "hippie remnants" taking over editorial positions in the American press. That
column was called "Why Sixties People Can't Win at Poker."

I read even more lunacy in the Times. Serious advice about placing a small mirror in front of
a poorly positioned house to deflect "noxious forces." A couple of my closest friends actually
practice Feng Shui. Another friend has come to my home and told me I was in serious trouble
because the foot of our bed faces a doorway. I'm merely amused by this, but I'm not amused
by the Times efforts to promote this nonsense as if it were valid. All this provides me with
two observations: (1) Superstition must be in vogue and that could be good for poker; and (2)
aren't you glad you're reading a credible publication like Card Player?

Where was I? Ah, superstition. Did you know that's one of the main reasons players decide to
change seats, play hands, and quit poker for the night? But it shouldn't have anything
whatsoever to do with how you make those decisions. Today, we're going to examine rational
reasons about…

"When to Stay and When to Quit"

1.

Poker is business.

Think of a poker game as your business. In order to succeed you need to do business
in the right location. In poker, you get to choose the location where you'll do business
every time you play. Choosing the right location - meaning the right game - is so
important that it doesn't just determine how much you win. It often determines if you
win. And once you're in a game, deciding correctly whether to stay or quit is critical.

2.

The poker tide.

Good games eventually get worse, and bad games eventually get better. In good
games, the weak players eventually leave or go broke. They are replaced by tough
players trying to capitalize on the game that was better earlier. Strong players
eventually leave solid games out of frustration and go searching for easier opponents,
and these games become easier. So, it's predictable like the tide. Expect loose games
to eventually get tighter; expect tight games to eventually get looser.

3.

Where you stand.

You should never stay in a game hoping to get even, because you already are even.
Your bankroll is always as large as it is when the cards are shuffled.

This attitude will save you the fate of many poker players who destroy their bankrolls
chasing an elusive and meaningless goal. You don't need to book a win tonight. You
just need to make your best decisions time after time. That's where the money is.
Whether you win or lose for a particular session should not be important to you. In the
long run, you will earn or lose money in accordance with the quality of your decisions.
Nothing more, nothing less. And you are always exactly even when then next hand
begins.

4.

It's OK to lose back what you won.

There's no disgrace in turning a big win into a loss. It's no worse than quitting now and
then coming back tomorrow to meet bad luck. If you're in a good game where you
believe you should earn money, then the main consequence of quitting is the same as
it would be with any other job: You'll get less work done. And that means you'll make
less money.

Poker's all-time stupidest question is, "Why didn't you quit when you were $600
ahead?" Does anyone ever ask that after you stay and win $3,000? Think about it. If
you lose $300 for the night, your friends are likely to say, "You should have quit when
you were winning $600." Has any friend, in the entire history of the world, ever
chided you after you won $3,000 with the words, "You should have quit when you
were winning $600"? The fact is, you have no idea whether the next hour will bring
you a win or a loss, so there's no way to know - based on dollars won alone - when to
quit.

5.

Manufactured streaks.

Don't manufacture a win streak by quitting with small wins when the game is good

and staying to recover when the game is bad. Lots of players brag about their win
streaks. They're just playing mental games that cause them to put in fewer hours and
earn less money. It's easy to put yourself on a win streak. Just quit every time you're a
little ahead. And when you're behind, keep playing as long as you can, because there's
always a chance that you'll book a win. Yep. That works. You'll have longer streaks
and a better win-loss record than I will. But you'll have many small wins and notable
big losses. And you'll just cost yourself profit.

6.

How to move up.

When you're successful and ready to promote yourself to a bigger game, you don't
need to play that game all the time. Stick with your previous limit and make
occasional forays into the larger limit. Always watch both games, and be ready to
jump from one to the other. The larger limit must be much better than the regular limit
to justify playing it. This advice is particularly valid if your bankroll is limited.

7.

Staying.

Reasons to stay in a game: (1) Game is good; (2) Your image is good; (3) Your spirits
are good; (4) There is laughter; (5) You are alert.

That laughter part is important. I always tend to stay in a game where people are
having a good time. This generally indicates that they are playing poker for fun and
not for profit, and I encourage this attitude in my opponents. Silence is a bad sign. It
means your opponents may be serious about the game and making carefully
considered decisions. There's usually less profit in such games, and that's why
"silence" makes the list below.

8.

Quitting.

Reasons to leave a game: (1) Game is bad; (2) Your image is bad; (3) You've been
losing, inspiring opponents; (4) Silence; (5) Your foes play selectively, but
aggressively; (6) Game is too loose for your bankroll (loose games are generally more
profitable, but require larger bankrolls, due to increased fluctuations of outcomes); (7)
You can't actually spot mistakes opponents are making; (8) You're worried about
cheating (this will eat up mental energy, even if it's false); (9) You feel "glued to your
seat."

Notice that I said you can quit because you're losing. This is not superstition. When
opponents see you lose, they play better against you, believing that you're vulnerable.
When you're winning and your image is dominating, you're a force to be reckoned
with and opponents are often intimidated, predictable, and easy to beat. They'll call
more with weak hands because they are numb, frustrated, or amazed. And they'll raise
less when they have an advantage because they are less confident. So, you should be
less willing to quit early when you're winning.

Also notice that I warned against foes who are selective about the hands they play, but
aggressive when they do enter a pot. These - as a group - are your least profitable foes.

You need to be able to identify mistakes opponents make. If you can't spot opponents
making choices that you know are unprofitable and that you wouldn't make yourself,
there is probably little profit to be made in the game. So, consider quitting.

9.

Caro's Threshold of Misery.

The main rule of quitting: Never cross "Caro's Threshold of Misery." I have defined a

point that your losses are so large that your agony is already maximized. Beyond that,
additional losses don't register, and they feel no worse. Then you will have a hard time
making meaningful decisions. Quit before you get anywhere near this threshold. - MC