Microsoft Word - Beat The Bookie.doc

Beat The Bookie

Page 2

www.bookiebeater.co.uk

Contents

Contents .................................................................................................................................... 2

Foreword – A Word of Caution .................................................................................................. 3

Chapter 1 – The Concept .......................................................................................................... 4

Chapter 2 – The Rules .............................................................................................................. 5

Rule 1 - No greater than 1/2 on a bet................................................................................. 5

Rule 2 - No betting on an away team................................................................................. 5

Rule 3 - Bet On What You Know........................................................................................ 5

Rule 4 - Cup Matches......................................................................................................... 5

Chapter 3 – Breaking The Rules ............................................................................................... 6

Beat The Bookie

Page 3

www.bookiebeater.co.uk

Foreword – A Word of Caution

Have you visited a bookmaker in the high street and wondered why there are three paying in
kiosks but only one paying out?

Have you ever met a poor bookmaker?

Have you ever wondered why online bookmakers will offer to match your first bet with a free
bet?

Bookmakers win more often than they lose. When they lose, they love to advertise the fact
that they have had to pay out millions on an anomalous result – what better way to advertise
your service than hitting the headlines on the evening news?

The vast majority of people will not beat the bookmaker. Let’s reword that… the bookmaker
will beat YOU! Actually, that sentence also needs qualified… the bookmaker will beat you
unless you take action to tip the balance back in your favour.

Sounds like a system coming up? Well, not really. If the bookmaker wins more often than he
loses, then why not trust the bookmaker to help you make a small profit? When the
bookmaker offers you odds of 1/3 (i.e. the bookmaker believes the result is a foregone
conclusion) why not trust his judgement. After all, 1/3 is a 33% return on your stake and the
banks can’t come close to matching that.

Of course, the bookmakers do not win every time!

Beat The Bookie

Page 4

www.bookiebeater.co.uk

Chapter 1 – The Concept

Gambling in the UK is tax free. This is an important concept because most forms of income
are taxable. For instance, a good savings account may offer you upwards of 5% interest but
after tax, this may be as little as 3%.

Could you beat a yearly rate of 3% by another means? Undoubtedly… day trading, futures
trading, trading on eBay, etc. There are many documented ways to make your fortune, but
let’s assume that the first target is to beat the bank.

Remember, the bookmaker rarely gets it wrong. If you put your money on a dead cert (say at
a rate of 1/3) and reinvest the winnings on another game at 1/3, you may be surprised to
learn that it wouldn’t take too long to turn your £5 into something substantial:

Bet

Odds

Return

£5.00

1/3

£6.67

£6.67

1/3

£8.88

£8.88

1/3

£11.84

£11.84

1/3

£15.79

£15.79

1/3

£21.04

£21.04

1/3

£28.05

£28.05

1/3

£37.39

£37.39

1/3

£49.84

£49.84

1/3

£66.44

£66.44

1/3

£88.57

£88.57

1/3

£118.06

£118.06

1/3

£157.37

£157.37

1/3

£209.78

£209.78

1/3

£279.64

£279.64

1/3

£372.75

£372.75

1/3

£496.88

£496.88

1/3

£662.34

£662.34

1/3

£882.90

£882.90

1/3

£1,176.91

So £5 has become £1,176.91 with just 19 bets. Admittedly, an element of bravery would be
required to place a bet of £882.90 on the result of a game!

Remembering that at any point you are only gambling with the £5 your originally started with
helps enormously but it can be difficult to remove the emotion from a bet. And of course, what
are the chances of you getting 19 results correct?

Beat The Bookie

Page 5

www.bookiebeater.co.uk

Chapter 2 – The Rules

Like all good systems, there are a set of rules for this experiment - DO NOT BREAK THEM!

Rule 1 - No greater than 1/2 on a bet

The bookies rarely get it wrong. If you see them offering 1/2, consider that your limit. 4/7 is
attractive, but it is 4/7 for a reason. 1/3 is normally a safe beat.

Rule 2 - No betting on an away team

There are too many variables involved in betting on an away team - no matter what the odds.
Avoid!

Rule 3 - Bet On What You Know

England = Premiership only
Stick to what you know. If you know that Arsenal are without Henry and Reyes, don't back
them! Do you fully understand the lower leagues after all?

Scotland = Premiership only
The same principle applies - stick to what you know. Celtic at home to almost anyone is worth
backing!

Germany = Bundesliga only
The same principle applies - stick to what you know. Bayern Munich at home to almost
anyone is worth backing!

Spain = La Liga only
The same principle applies - stick to what you know. Barcelona at home to almost anyone is
worth backing!

Italy = Serie A only
The same principle applies - stick to what you know. Juventus at home to almost anyone is
worth backing!

Northern Ireland = Premier League only
Linfield, Glentoran or Portadown at home against anyone (except each other).

Rule 4 - Cup Matches

England = FA Cup
Statistics in recent years suggest that upsets rarely happen - particularly when a Premiership
team is drawn against any team below the mid-point in the Coca-Cola Championship league.
Also, in the last 10 years the cup has been won by either Arsenal, Manchester United,
Liverpool or Chelsea. You have to go back to 1991 to find a year in which none of these
teams reached the final!

Scotland = Scottish Cup
Only once in the last 10 years has the cup been won by a team other than Celtic or Rangers.

Champions League
Avoid the last round of games in the group stage of the Champions League - particularly
those teams that have already qualified!