Ghosthunt:NATOandSwedenbyPelleNerothTaylor
ThetrueColdWarstoryoftheghostsubmarinesinSwedishwaters
CONTENTS
4. Thedangersof‘Swedenization’
9. TheWest'scampaignontheNorthernFlank
10. NorwayunderpressurefromNATO
11.AshorthistoryofUSCovertoperations
1.MargaretTh atch eran d th eSp ies
ThisisabookaboutoneofthegreatestmysteriesoftheColdWar.Thesubmarineintrusionsthatoccurred
inSwedishwatersfrom1982onwards,forseveralyears.Theywerelikeghosts:thereweresporadic
sightingsofconningtowers,andregistersofsonarechoes,alongtheindentedBalticcoastofthis
politicallyneutral,pacifistcountry,butnosubmarinewaseverbroughttothesurface.
TheywereneverthelessnamedasSoviet,bypublic,media,thepoliticaloppositionand,significantly–
theSwedishNavy.Sincetheprimeministeratthetime,OlofPalme,wasengagedintryingtobringthe
SovietUnioninfromthediplomaticcold,hispoliticalreputationwasseverelydamagedbythe
intrusions.PalmeinitiallybelievedtheNavywhenittoldhimthesubmarineswereSoviet.Later,hewas
notsosure.
PalmewastryingtobeabrokerbetweenEastandWestatatimewhenrelationsbetweenthetwo
superpowerblocs,ledbytheSovietUnionandtheUnitedStates.hadbrokendowncompletely.This
breakdowninrelationsbetweenEastandWestcanbetracedtotwoeventsthattookplacewithinweeks
ofeachotherthreeyearsbeforethefirstsubmarineintrusions.
ThefirsteventwastheSovietinvasionofAfghanistanonChristmasDay1979.Thesecondeventtook
placetwoweeksearlieron12December1979whenNATO’sdefenceandforeignministerstooka
landmarkdecisionthatwasdesignedtounifythealliance,butwhichalsoprovokedstrongcounter
reactionsintheSovietUnion–aswellasamongWestEuropeanpublics,wherethemovewasextremely
unpopular.
TheeventwasthesigningofthedualtrackdecisionwhichlinkeddeploymentsofUSCruiseandPershing
nuclearmissilefornegotiationswiththeSovietUnionoverthefutureofthoseforces,aswellastheir
Sovietequivalents,theSS-20missiles.ThedecisionforesawthedeploymentinEuropeof572mobile
Americanmiddlerangenuclear-armedmissilesinfouryears’time,ifnegotiationswiththeSovietstocut
backtheirrecentlyinstalledSS-20sfailed.
NATOleadersclaimedtheSovietdecisiontointroducetheSS-20supsetthenuclearbalance,andsaw
theirdualtrackdecisionasaresponsetoSovietmoves;theSoviets,fortheirpart,sawtheNATOplanas
anescalationofthearmsrace.
Thesetwoevents–theinvasionofAfghanistanandtheNATOdualtrackdecision-killedthe1970s
periodofpoliticalcalm,ordétente,betweenEastandWeststone-deadandmarkedthebeginningofwhat
isknownastheSecondColdWar.
ItwasthisdetentethatPalmewishedtoreturnto.TheicyandtenseperiodoftheSecondColdWarlasted
forsixyearsuntilitslowlystartedwindingdowninthelate1980swiththedemocracyreformsPresident
GorbachevintroducedintoEasternEurope,partly-andnotmanypeopleknowthis–inspiredbyOlof
Palme.Bythen,OlofPalmehadbeenmurderedinaStockholmstreet,oneicywinter’seveningwhile
walkinghomefromthecinema.Themurderisstillunresolved;buttheatmosphereofanxietyinSweden
promptedbytheintrusionshelpedmakePalmeveryunpopular,evenhated,amongsectionsofthepublic.
ThetwoeventsofDecember1979thatlaunchedthe“SecondColdWar”werecolouredbytheextreme
distrustwithwhichBritain’snewprimeminister,MargaretThatcher,feltforeverythingSoviet.
AsearlyasherIronLadyspeechof1976,Thatcherhadshownhersuspicionsofdétentethenwellunder
way.AccordingtoherofficialbiographerCharlesMoore,shewasconvincedtheSovietswere“working
hard,bothpoliticallyandmilitarily,toachieveworldmasteryandthattheWestshouldnotbargainwith
themunlessitcouldbargainfromstrength”.Mooreadds:“Shealsobelievedthatthedisunityofthe
NATOalliancewastheprizewhichtheSovietUnionsoughtmost”.
ThatcherdistrustedtheForeignOffice,whichshesawasbeingtooinstitutionallysoftontheSoviets.So,
evenbeforeherelectiontothetopjobinMay1979,shesurroundedherselfwithadvisorsontheSoviet
Uniondrawnfromacademiaandjournalismwhohadprettyrobustviewsonthecountry.Shecalledthem
her“irregulars”,justasChurchillhaddubbedhisinformalcoterieofadvisers.Themostimportantof
thesewasRobertConquest,oneofthemostanti-Soviethistoriansofhistime.Hehadwrittendetailed
andwellregardedaccountsofthewickednessoftheStalinregime–thoughhewaslesswellreadupon
thefarlessbrutal,stagnatedSovietUnionoftheBrezhnevera.
Apoetandpracticaljoker,hewasalsooneofthenovelistKingsleyAmis’sclosestfriends.Foran
importantspeechonforeignpolicyin1978,shedrewextensivelyononeofhisnotyetpublished
manuscripts.Writingtothankhimlater,shetoldConquestthat“yourbookanddraftprovidedthemeatof
thetextintheplaceswhereitreallymattered.”Whenthebook,dealingwiththeSovietUnion,was
publishedin1979itwascalled“PresentDanger”.ConquestdedicatedthebooktoMrsThatcher.
Conquestpredictedthattheupcomingyearswouldbea“periodofenormousdanger”andsaidthatthe
mostimportantthingfortheWestwasto“holditsnerve”.ConquestthoughtCarterwasaweaklinkinthe
“life-and-deathstruggle”againsttheUSSR,apointheputacrosstoThatcher.ShewrotetoConquestthat
shefelttherealurgeto“stiffenupWashington”,underliningthestatementinhertrademarkgreenink.
ConquestfearedthattheSovietsmightcontrive“militaryincidents”inWestGermanywhichwouldresult
inaceasefirewhichtheSovietswouldexploittotheiradvantage–andendupwiththeirarmiesonthe
Rhine.ConquestthoughttheAmericanunderstandingoftheSovietthreatwaspoor.AccordingtoMoore,
whohashadaccesstoThatcher’sarchives,muchofitpreviouslyunpublished,Conquestwrote
approvinglytoherafterhergreeninkremarks:“ThewayyoukeepalertingtheWesttorealityis
spellbindingandinspiriting”.
AnotheradvisertoMargaretThatcherwasBrianCrozier,who,asoneobituaryputitwhenhedied
recentlyattheageof94,was“ajournalistandprolificauthorofhardlineconvictions”.
ClaimingtobetheKGB’s“enemynumberone”,Crozieralwayssaidherecognisedtheevilnatureofthe
Sovietregimeearlierthanmost,andspentthelatterpartofhiscareerexposingits“evils”towhathesaw
aswesternapologistsforthecause.(CrozierhimselfhadflirtedwithCommunisminhisyouth.)
Australian-born,theLondon-basedCrozierwaspartofanetworkofacademics,journalistsandright
wingConservativeMPswho,throughouttheseventies,hadbeenworriedaboutCommunistthreatabroad
andthedeclineofBritainathome.JournalistPaulRoutledgewritesinhisbookaboutThatcher’smentor,
MPAireyNeave,whowasakeyfigureinthisnetworkandthemanwho,morethananyone,ensured
Thatcher’srisetopower:“Fromtherecessesofthesecurityservices,fromtheupperreachesoftheCity,
fromLondon’sclublandandfromtherightoftheConservativepartycamevolunteerseagertofightthe
goodfight[againstCommunism].”
OnecannotexplainThatcher’srise–andthefactthatsomeoneontherightofBritishpolitics,asshe
undoubtedlywas,becamepartyleaderinaConservativepartythatwasthenverycentristandmoderate–
withoutexplainingtheimportanceofthesepowerful,plottingmenintheshadows,oneofwhom,Neave,
assaid,playedakeyroleinheraccessiontopower.InthewakeoftheConservatives’electiondefeat
underEdwardHeathin1974,shewastheunderdogchallenger–expectedtowinbyhardlyanyone.And
yetshedid.
AireyNeavewasaToryMPandwarhero:MargaretThatcher’sbiggestearlysupporterandultimately
herkingmakerin1975.CapturedasayoungsoldierinFrancein1940,Neavespenttwoyearsatthe
notoriousGermanprisonatColditz,fromwhichheescapedin1942.WhenhearrivedinSwitzerland,he
wasbroughttotheattentionofBritishintelligenceforthisfeatandspiritedbacktoBritaintobepartof
MI9,theescapeandevasionorganisationforAlliedpilotsandservicemen.RoutledgewritesthatMI9
wasa“whollyownedsubsidiaryofMI6,theSecretIntelligenceService”.
Neaveworkedforthreeyearsincovertoperations,trainingagentstosetupescaperatlinesinoccupied
EuropeanddebriefingescapersoninformationfrombehindtheGermanfront.Heendedthewarwithtwo
servicemedals,theDSOandtheMC.Afterthewar,hehadafurtherobjective:identifyingagentswho
hadworkedtospiritAlliedservicemenoutoftheoccupiedzonewhowouldbeusefulinthecontextofthe
new,emergingcoldwar.Hisbureaudrewuplistsofcontactswhowouldbe“useful”iftheSovietsever
invadedWesternEurope.TheseagentswereknownasStayBehinds;theStayBehindseventually
acquiredapresenceinallnon-CommunistcountriesofWesternEurope,andtheirexistencehasnever
beenofficiallyadmittedbytheBritishgovernment.
WhiletheLabourgovernmentof1945wasunenthusiasticaboutsuchinitiatives,theBritishbranchofStay
Behindslivedonintheterritorialarmytrainingschool,andwaslaterincorporatedintotheSAS.In
civilianlife,asacompanydirector,Neavekeptuphislinkswiththeintelligenceservices–providing
alibicoverfortheBritishspyGrevilleWynnewhowenttotheSovietUnionofficiallyworkingfor
Neave’sengineeringfirm,buttopsecretlyasarecruiterofSovietcitizensasMI6agents,atwhichhewas
successful.Inthe1950s,NeavebecamealowkeyToryMP,chairmanoftheCommonsSelectCommittee
onScienceandTechnologyandagovernorofImperialCollege.Butunderneaththeexteriorwasaman
withamission–who,likeCrozier,ConquestandmanyToryMPswhocametobackand/oradvise
MargaretThatcher,believedinthedangerofexpansionistCommunismandhadapassionforfreedom.
OneTVproducerwholatermadeadocumentaryaboutNeavecalledhima“moralmanwillingtodo
thingsthatimmoralmenwerenot.Ifnecessaryhetookthegunoutandthereweredifficultthingstobe
donebutforthemosthonourableofreasons”.
Routledgewrites:“AlthoughhewasnotanorthodoxMI6officer,Neavesharedtheoutlookofthesecurity
servicesandremainedclosetothemafterhebecameaToryMP.Hemayhavebeenanelectedpolitician
inademocracy,buthesharedthemisgivingsabouttheworldexpressedmostcogentlybyGeorge
KennedyYoung,deputydirectorofMI6.Younghadissuedamemotohisstaffinwhichheexpandedon
theroleofthespyinthemodernworld.Hewascriticaloftheendlesstalkaboutdemocracy,theUnited
Nationandtherightsofmaninthepressandinparliament.‘Thereality,asweallknowperfectlywell,is
quitetheoppositeandconsistsofaneverincreasingspreadoflawlessness,disregardofinternational
contract,crueltyandcorruption.Thenuclearstalematehasbeenaccompaniedbyamoralstalemate.’”The
spyhadtomakeupforthedeficiencyofdiplomatsandministers:thespyhadtoworkdiscreetlyfor
crownandcountry,tirelesslyandsecretly.
Britaininthe1970swasacountryincompleteeconomicfree-fall:in1975,inflationwasat25%andthe
poundwasworthlittlemorethan70%ofitsvaluethreeyearsearlier.Linkedlooselytothenetworkof
ToryMPsandCitybankersworriedaboutBritain’sdecline,severalquasi-military“liberation”
committees,suchasGB75andCivilAssistance,weresetup,oftenbyoldWorldWar2heroes.Whatthey
hadincommonwasthattheyfearedCommunistinfiltrationandplottedtosortthecountryout.Neave
actuallyattendedoneoftheirdrinksreceptions,inthecompanyofGeorgeKennedyYoung–nowex
directororMI6–aswellasWalterWalker,formercommander-in-chiefofNATO’sNorthernCommand.
NothingcameofeitherGB75orCivilAssistance,butNeavedidbecomeinvolvedwithaslightlymore
mainstreamgroupingcalledToryAction,apressuregroupinsidetheConservativeparty,aswellasthe
NationalAssociationforFreedom(NAFF),setupin1975tofightCommunistsubversion.NAFFhad
somesuccessinharryingwildcatstrikers,whichwerethebaneofindustriallifeinBritaininthe1970s,
andhadpowerfulbackers,includingtheMcWhirtertwins,foundersoftheGuinnessBookofRecords.
Aftertheelectiondefeatof1974,therewasatimeofreckoningforEdwardHeath,Britishconservative
primeministerbetween1970and1974:hehadlostfourofthefivelastelectionshispartyhadcontested
duringhistenureasleader.Neavewasoneofthosewhosetouttounseathim.Hewasattheforefrontof
thecampaign,backingtheprocessofchangingleaderslaunchedbycharismatic,backbenchMP,Edward
duCann,chairmanofthe1922CommitteeofMPs’interests,apowerfulbodythatcouldmakeorbreak
primeministers.ApartfromduCann,therewasalistofhopefuls,noneanobviousfrontrunner.Thatcher,
a48-year-oldright-winger,educationministerinHeath’sgovernment,hadruledherselfoutina
newspaperinterviewthedayaftertheelection.Neave’sownpreferencesweredivided:duCannwasa
possibility,hehadalotofministerialexperienceattheTreasurywhileKeithJosephwasanother
possibility.JosephwasabrainyJewishbusinessmanwhohadmadeafortuneinthefamilyconstruction
business;hewasalsoafellowofAllSouls,Oxford.Joseph’sideologicalattacksonthepragmatist
centristwelfarestatepoliciesofHeathintriguedNeave.JosephwentontofoundtheCentreforPolicy
studies,athink-tankthatturnedintotheintellectualengineofThatcherism.
Bothcandidacies,alas,wereadeadletter.DuCanndeclinedtostand;andJoseph,whileinterested
enough,madeaninappropriatespeecharguingthatthelowersocialclassesshouldnothavebabiesasthey
wouldjustperpetuatelowintelligenceandloweducationalattainmentinthegenepool.Themediaoutcry
forcedhimtorulehimselfoutfortheToryleadership.
Castingaroundforanewstandardbearer,NeavesettledonThatcher,Joseph’slongstandingintellectual
disciple.ThatcherhadmetJosephonthedayofhisstandingdownandannouncedthat,sincehecouldn’t
stand,shewould.Shewasnotanobviouscandidate,writesRoutledge.Shehadnoorganisationbehind
herintheparliamentaryparty,andshealsofacedtheburdenthatnowomanhadeverbeenelectedtothe
topjob.ButduCannthoughtshewas“strikinglyattractive,obviouslyintelligent,agoer”.Heinvited
ThatcherandherhusbandDenistohishouseinWestminster.“Theysatonthesofatogether,ratherlikea
butlerandhousekeeperseekingemployment.”Thatcherhadrobustinstincts,and,beingoflowermiddle
classorigins–herfatherwasashopkeeper-sharedtheconservatismofthe“littlepeople”.Shewasin
favourofhangingandscepticalofimmigration.Shehadhefeetfirmlyplantedonthegroundbutwasalso
interestedinideas.ShecouldbetheonetodefeatHeath,duCannthought.
TheelectionforanewpartyleaderwastobeconductedbyavoteinvolvingallelectedToryMPs.Heath
wastheearlyfavourite,butNeaveworkedWestminstertirelesslyonherbehalf,solicitingvotesfrom
MPsatdrinksreceptionsandinthecorridors.AsRoutledgewrites:“Hebroughttothecampaignthe
secretagent’sunderstandingofpsychologicaloperations,disinformation,manipulationand
misrepresentation.HewasfarfrombeingtheonlyMI6memberintheToryranks.”Memberswithan
intelligencebackgroundincludedSirStephenHastings,JulianAmery,MauriceMacmillan,HarryKirby
andCranleyOnslow.Hewasanexpertathandingoutpromises,flatteringMPs,andlearninginformation
aboutpreferences.Hisintelligencewasunmatchedevenbythewhips,accordingtooneadmiringfellow
MP.
ThatcherwasinstructedwhattosayanddobyNeaveoveraglassofwineinacolleague’soffice.On
Neave’sadvice,sheavoidedasharpdefinitionofherpolicieswhensolicitingsupport,butencouraged
MPstospeakupinareaswheretheythoughtHeathwastakingthepartyinthewrongdirection.She
playeddownherpro-hangingpoliciesandpresentedherselfasthelisteningleadership,onNeave’s
advice.
TomaximisehersupportamongthosewhodidnotsupportherbutstillwantedtotoppleHeath–butwho
werewaitingforthesecondroundwhentheirfavouredcandidateswouldthrowtheirhatintothering,
releasedfromthetiesofloyaltytoHeath–NeavedeliberatelyexaggeratedHeath’sleadoverThatcher.
(Neaveknewthescore,havingtalkedtoeverybody.)
ExaggeratingHeath’ssupportandunderplayingthenumberofpeoplewhohadpledgedforThatcher,
NeavewastryingtobounceanyremainingdoubtersintobackinghersothatHeath’svictorywouldbeby
asmallenoughmargintoforce,undertherulesofthevote,asecondround,whenmorecandidateswould
enterthering.WhattheMPsdidn’trealisewasthatNeavewasplayingatrickonthem,seekingan
outrightwinforThatcherthatwouldobviateachallengefromsecondroundchallengersofmore
distinguished,experiencedMPs.
InThatcher,Neaveincreasinglylikedwhathesaw,realisingshewasagenuinelytalentedpolitician,a
mistressofherbrief.InaspeechinherhomeconstituencyofFinchley,sherestatedherpoliticalcore
values:aconcernforindividualfreedom,oppositiontoexcessivestatepower,rewardsforhard-working
people.Shecalledfordiversityandchoiceandtherighttoworkwithoutoppressionfromeitheremployer
ortradeunionboss.Sheunderstoodthemaninthestreetandwasaseriousperson,agreatpatriot,thought
Neave.
Heath’sadvisershadpromisedHeathhewouldpollmorethanthe139votestosecureoutrightvictory
overThatcher.Thenewspapers,withtheexceptionoftheDailyMail,predictedHeathwouldwin.They
toohadfallenforNeave’sdisinformationcampaign.Whentheresultscamethroughfromcommitteeroom
14on4February1975,however,Thatcherwasthewinner131to119.Itwasafewvotesshortofthe
outrightwinNeavehadsecretlybeengunningfor,butwhenthesecondroundwasheldafewweekslater
–nowwithHeathdeparted,andwithseveralothercandidatesparticipating–Thatcherhadgainedso
muchmomentumshedefeatedeventhosecandidates,suchasGeoffreyHowe,whohadmanysupporters
whovotedforThatcherinthefirstroundsothatHowewouldbeabletostandinthesecondround.
Likeanynewleader,Thatcherwasapproachedbymanypeoplewhowantedto“giveheradvice”-or
swayherovertotheirpointofview.Oneofthesewas,assaid,RobertConquest,thehistorianwho
recommendedshegettoughwiththeRussians;anotherwasBryanCrozier,whomwehadmetbefore.
AfterworkinginAsiaforReuters,hewroteaveryenthusiasticbiographyoftheSpanishdictatorFranco,
arguingthathisSpainhadbeenaveryfreecountry.WhileacknowledgingthattheIndonesiandictator
GeneralSuhartohadmassacredhalfamillionpeople,Crozierpraisedhimas"amanofcoolnerve,
caution,andnaturalpoliticalskill".
Startingin1965andthroughtheseventies,CrozierwaschairmanoftheCIA-sponsoredForumWorld
Features–theCIAconnectionwaspointedoutevenbythemainstreamTimesnewspaper,initsobituary
ofCrozierin1994.Hewasalsodirectorfortenyearsinthe1970softheInstitutefortheStudyof
Conflict,athinktankwhichlookedattheSovietUnion'sallegedglobalambitions.
HisconnectionstothevariousrightwinggroupsalsofrequentedbyNeaveledhimintocontactwith
Thatcher.Ashewritesinhismemoirs:“TheladytooknoteswhenIfirstmether.Ifoundthisflattering,I
wasalsosurprised,aswewereinthemiddleofdinnerinexcellentcompany.Isoonlearnedthather
appetiteforfactsandviewswasinexhaustible.”Croziercontinues,writinginhisratherself-serving
book,FreeAgent:
“MrsThatcherwaslisteningandwritingbecauseIwastellingherthingsnobodyhadyetmentionedtoher,
aboutSovietsubversionintheUnitedKingdom….Onleavingweshookhandsandsheinvitedmetosee
herfromtimetotimetocontinueourconversation.Thereafterwehadmanymeetings,eitheratthe
Thatchers’Londonhomeat2FloodStreet,Chelsea,orinherroomintheHouse.Latertheycontinuedat
ChequersandsometimesinDowningStreet.”
Crozierwasverykeen.StephenHastings,aglamorousTorybackbenchMPwithabackgroundinthe
intelligenceservices,NicholasElliott,aformerMI6officialandCroziertogethersetupasecretadvisory
committeeagainsttheCommunistsubversionofBritaincalledShield.Theycirculatedtypedreportsnot
onlytoThatcherbuttoherseniorshadowcabinet,allofwhomshowedatleastpoliteinteresttherewas
oneexception,LordPeterCarrington,theshadowforeignsecretary,whowantednothingtodowith
Crozierandhisgrouping.CarringtonthoughtCrozierandhisrightwingbunchwerefraudsandblowhards
whoimaginedCommunistinfiltrationeverywhere,athomeandabroad,andwhowerebasically
fantasists.
Crozierwritesinhismemoirs,FreeAgent:
“Whywerewedoingthis?Memoriesareshort,andIimaginemostadultsatthetimehadnoideathatthe
situationwasasgraveasweknewittobe.Someknewbutweretootimidtodoanythingaboutit.Others
didnotwanttoknow.”
“Theproblemwassubversion:subversionisaninsidiousman-madedisease,acreepingparalysisin
whichthestate’sorgansareinvadedandneutralised,untiltheyceasetofunction,thepoliticalequivalent
ofAIDS.”
“InBritain,asinotherEuropeancountries,theultimateaimwastoturnthecountryintoapeople’s
democracyontheEastEuropeanmodel.”
ThemeansofSovietinfiltrationwerethetradeunions,thepeacemovements,themedia.Oneofthe
membersofShieldwastheelderlyHarrySporborg,theBritishNorwegianbankerforHambros,aLondon
bankwithstrongScandinavianlinks.FoundedbyaDane,CarlJoachimHambro,inLondonin1839,it
wasformanyyearsthesolebankertotheScandinaviankingdoms.Sporborghadbeenadeputyheadof
thewartimeSpecialOperationsExecutive,theSOE,theguerrilla/commandoforceparachutedinto
occupiedEuropeinWW2tocarryoutactsofsubversionandsabotageandwhichworkedinparallelto
Neave’sMI9.ThoughofNorwegianorigin,SporborgcouldnothavebeenmoreBritish,withaRugbyand
Cambridgeintonationandaquietlyunderstatedsenseofhumour.WiththeresourcesofCrozier’sthink
tank,theISC,attheirdisposal,theyproducedsometwentypapersonthetopicofsubversion,assistedby
twoyoungresearchers,whichtheymailedtoshadowcabinet,toCarrington’sirritation.
ApartfrombriefingThatcheronsubversion,Crozieralsotookapaternalisticinterestinboostingherself-
confidence–notthenaswelldevelopedasitbecameintheprimeofherpremiership–inwhichhe
soughttohelpherconsolidateherimageamongthepublicasbeingresoluteandstrong.Hehandedhera
programmeofPsychologicalActionduringoneoftheirmeetingsatFloodStreet.
Astheelectiondrewcloser,atthesuggestionoftheoldSOEhand,Sporborg,Croziersuggestedatop
secretcountersubversionagencytocomplementtheworkofMI6.Crozierwrites:“ThefullShield
committeemetintheboardroomofaCitybank.MrsThatcher,keenandalert,presided.Herswasthe
'receiving'side.OnherleftwasSirKeithJosephwho,Inotedwithinterest,hadbroughtwithhimacopy
ofmynewbook,StrategyofSurvival.Hehadmarkedoneortwopassagesonwhichheraisedquestions
withmebeforethemeetingbegan.OnherrightwasWillieWhitelawand,beyondhim,LordCarrington.
We,the'givers',facedthemacrossthetable.”
Crozieroutlinedhisplansforacountersubversioncommittee,butagainfacedCarrington'sscepticism:
wherewoulditbelocated?ThatcherintervenedtoproposethattheCSEshouldbeasmallprivateunit
accommodatedinthecabinetofficebuildinginWhitehall,oratDowningStreet.Croziersuggestedthe
samebuildingasMI6,anditwouldberunbyhimself.ButagainCarringtonobjected,andthemeeting
endedonalessthanharmoniousnote.AconstructiveletterfromSporborgfollowed,dealingwith
Carrington’sobjections,onebyone.ButiteventuallydawnedonSporborgandCrozierthatCarrington
wasn’tinterestedatallintheideaofacountersubversionexecutive,thequestionoflocationwasjusta
pretext.Croziernotedsadly“Thefutureprimeministerdid,andWhitelawandJosephwentalongwithit.
Carringtonwentagainstthewholething,anditwashisviewthatprevailed.”
Atameetingat
ChequersaftertheelectiontowhichCrozierwasinvited,Thatcherletitbeknown,throughherapologetic
demeanour,thattheidea,nowthatshewasprimeminister,wastobeburied.
Itwasn’tonlyCrozier’splansforalifeinthenewgovernmentthatCarringtonputastopto.
Intherun-upto1979election,Conquest–thewellregardedanti-Soviethistorian-angledfora
governmentjob,possiblythepostofUNambassador,butMoorewritesthat“hernativecautionweighed
againstofferinghim”thatoranyotherjob.
ThislittlestoryaboutThatcher’sconnectionstotheanti-Communistunderworld,astoldbyRoutledgein
hisbiographyaboutNeaveandCrozierinhismemoirsabouthisownconnectionwithThatcher,is
interesting,becauseitsuggestafacetofThatcher’scharacterunderexploredbymanyotherwriters:a
fascinationforsecretgroupings,secretoperations,atendencytobelieveallegationsaboutsubversionof
theWest.Thismaybeanimportantfactormotivatingherintheoperationsthatfollow.WhileCarrington
mayhavebeensuccessfulatside-liningthem,theseanti-CommunistsmusthavehadaneffectonMrs
Thatcher,oraddedthenotionsshealreadyhadabouttheSovietUnion–inawaythatputheratoddswith
themoreworldwearyandexperienceddiplomatsintheForeignOffice.
WhitehallmandarinMichaelAlexander,foreignaffairsprivatesecretary,toldMoore,herofficial
biographer,that,whileherespectedMrsThatcher,shewas“inclinedtosimplifyandoverdramatisethe
issues”surroundingtheSovietUnion.Moorewritesthatthe“ForeignOfficehadputitseggsinthebasket
ofdétenteyearsearlierandmanyofficialsweredeeplyhostile”towardsthespeechesshemadeagainst
détente.“Thediplomatsconsideredherrhetoric[againsttheUSSR]overlyprovocativeand
undiplomatic,”writesMoore.
TheForeignOfficewasscepticalofsomethedissidentvoicescomingoutoftheUSSR,whileThatcher
encouragedMEPLordBethell–whohadgoodcontactsbehindtheironcurtain-tobringdissidentswho
hadmanagedtocomeoutoftheSovietUnionandtalktoher.“Sheregardedhumanrightsabusesas
indicativeofthediseaseofSoviettotalitarianism,”Alexanderrecalledlater.Moorecomments:“The
ForeignOfficedislikedthisandtendedtoregardthesubjectasanirritatingdistraction.”
JohnColes,thecivilservantwhosucceededMichaelAlexanderinherprivateoffice,putit:“TheFCO
neverreallysharedherattitudetowardstheSovietUnion.TheywereusedtodealingwiththeSovietsand
thoughtitwasbettertodealwiththemthannot.Ithinktheywerefrustratedthatshewasnotsupportiveof
arelationshipwiththeSovietUnion.”
JohnHunt,theCabinetSecretary,toldUSembassyofficialsshortlyafterherelectionin1979theyshould
havepatiencewiththeThatchergovernment,whichwasonalearningcurvewithaningrainedemotional
resistancetotheUSSR.However,CarringtondisagreedinaninterviewcarriedoutbyThatcher’s
biographerCharlesMoore:hedidnotputherviewsdowntolackofexperience.“Idon’tthinkshethought
therewasanypointinnegotiations.TheaimwastowintheColdwarreally.Idon’tthinkshesawanend
toitatall,butthatwehadtogoinwithitbecausetheyweredangerouswickedpeople.”TheForeign
Officepresentedherwithapaperinherfirstautumninofficecalled‘ManagingRussia’.Butshedidnot
wanttomanagetheSovietUnion,shewantedtodefeatit.
Eightmonthsafterherelection,herhunchabouttheUSSR’swickednessseemedtobeborneoutbythe
SovietinvasionofAfghanistanonChristmasDay1979.TheAfghanCommunistregimewasshowing
signsoffallingapart,andanewpuppetleaderwasinstalledbytheSovietsaftertheykilledtheold
leader.SoviettanksstartedpatrollingthestreetsofKabul.RobertConquestimmediatelywrotetoher:
“Foranyonewithanounceofsense,thereisnolessontobelearnedfromtheAfghanevents;theymerely
confirmindramaticfashionwhatwasknowntomanyandshouldhavebeenknowntoallofthose
concernedwithWesternpolicy.ForthetimebeingthosewhohavebeendangerouslyinerroraboutSoviet
motivationsandintentionshavebeenshockedintofacingreality.”ShecalledintheSovietambassador
andtoldhimthiswasevenworsethantheSovietinvasionofCzechoslovakiaasAfghanistanhadnotbeen
aSovietsatellite.
MichaelAlexander,herforeignaffairssecretary,waswithThatcherwhennewsoftheinvasioncame
through;asaforeignpolicyexpert,hereadthenewsdifferently.HetoldMoore:“Sheinterpretedthe
invasionasanexerciseinRussianexpansionism.ImustconfessthatIarguedwithherthatnightthatthe
invasionwasifanythinganactofdesperationonthepartoftheRussians–ratherthaninkeepingwith
theirusualcaution.TheRussiansweregoingintoAfghanistanbecausetheycouldnotcontrolthesituation
inanyotherway.Thatstruckmeassomethingoverwhichweshouldnotlosesleep.”
HistoryhasprovenAlexander’sinterpretationright.TheSovietsweredesperateandthemoveessentially
defensive–and,weknownow,AmericanmeddlinginAfghanistanhadstartedwellbeforetheSoviet
invasion.ButThatcher’sbloodwasup,andherewassomethingshecoulddevoteherenergiesto.
AfghanistanhadshowedtheSovietevilforwhatitwas.EvenPresidentCarterwasnowwisetoit;her
authorityincreasedanditbecameeasierforhertomakethecasefor“matching”theSovietstationingof
SS-20missilesinEurope,inthesocalleddualtrackdecision.Cartersuspendedthearmsreduction
negotiationsknownasSALTIIandimposedagrainexportembargoontheUSSR.TheUnitedStatesalso
boycottedtheOlympicGames,whichweretobeheldinMoscowinJuly1980.Thatchercalledfora
boycotttoo;theBritishOlympiccommitteedisregardedherandmanyBritishathletesdidgo.
ThatcherwasincensedatEuropeancountries’failuretofollowthroughtheAmericandecision.Whenshe
mettheGermanchancellorHelmutSchmidtinFebruary1981shedescribedherselfasbitterly
disappointedattheEEC’sfailuretosupportCarterandhisOlympicboycott.TheEuropeanswereinfact
quitecautiousabouttheSovietUnion,didn’twanttoprodthebear.Schmidtwarnedherthattherewas
now“aclearandpresentdangerofathirdworldwar”.AFrenchstatementontheRussianwithdrawalof
afewunitsfromAfghanistanasapositivedevelopmentalsoangeredher.Shescribbledonadiplomatic
briefingthatFrenchPresidentGiscardD’Estaingwas“halfwaytoChamberlain”.Chamberlainwasthe
Britishprimeministerwhoseverynameisabywordforthenotionthattheappeasementofdictatorships
thatdoesn’twork.
AttheTorypartyconferencethatautumn,1981,shegavetheSovietUnionbothbarrels,inspiredbythe
adviceConquestandCrozierwerestillinformallygivingher–althoughCarrington’svetoofaformal
countersubversionintelligenceorganisationstillstood:
“IwaspointingtothethreatfromtheEast.Iwasaccusedofscaremongering.Buteventshavemorethan
justifiedmywords.SovietMarxismisideologically,politicallyandmorallybankrupt.Butmilitarilythe
SovietUnionisapowerfulandgrowingthreat.TheBritishgovernmentarenotindifferenttothe
occupationofAfghanistan.Weshallnotallowittobeforgotten,unlessanduntiltheSoviettroopsare
withdrawn,othernationsareboundtowonderwhichofthemmaybenext.Ofcoursetherearethosewho
saythatbyspeakingoutwearecomplicatingEast-Westrelationsthatareendangeringdétente.Butthe
realdangerwouldlieinkeepingsilent.Détenteisatwowayprocess.”Laterthatyear,Thatchermadea
speechinNewYorkwhereshesaid“WhatisthereintheSovietsystemtoadmire?Materialprosperity?It
doesnotproduceit.Spiritualsatisfaction?Itdeniesit.”Thespeechwassoharsh,writesMoore,that
Carringtonmadeapointofbeingoutoftowntoavoidattending.Recallingitlater,Carringtonsaid,“It
reallywasaveryrightwingspeech.”
IftheGermansandFrenchfoundThatcheranembarrassment,shesoonhadasoulmateinthemost
powerfulpostintheworld.InNovember1980,RonaldReaganwaselectedpresidentoftheUnited
States.IfthecontinentalswerelesseagerabouthercrusadeagainsttheUSSR,Reaganshowednodoubts.
WhenThatcher,shortlyafterReagan’sinauguration,toldAmericanjournalistsinLondonthattheSoviet
Unionoppresseditsownpeople,withreferencetoSakharov,thephysicistdissidentandlaterNobel
peaceprizewinner,ReaganapprovinglycalledThatcherthe“onlyEuropeanleaderwithballs”.
2 . Reagan tak eso n WestGerman y
“Thismanisazero”-HelmutSchmidtonRonaldReagan,1982
WhenReaganwaselectedin1981,hehadagoaltodefeattheSovietUnion–andtobringhisEuropean
alliesonside–toheelisanotherwayofputtingit–inthisproject.HisgreatestallywasMargaret
Thatcher.Hisbiggestopponent,arguably,wasHelmutSchmidtwho,likeOlofPalme,waspursuinga
peacefulrelationshipwiththeSovietUnion.
HelmutSchmidt,thechancellorofWestGermanywhenThatcherandReagancametopower,hasa
reputationamonghistoriansofhavingbeenahawkontheSovietUnion.
Buthewasprimeministerofapartywithalongpacifisttradition,theSocialDemocratSPD.
WhileSchmidtwasprimeminister,hisparty,theSPD’s,chairmanwasWillyBrandt.
BrandthadprecededSchmidtasChancellorandisbestknownforOstpolitik,literally“Eastpolitics”–
WestGermany’snormalisationofrelationswiththeEasternBloc,particularlytheSovietUnionandEast
Germany.ItislesswellknownthatSchmidtactuallycontinuedthisOstpolitikafterBrandt’sdeparturein
1974.ThearrivalofReaganandtheSoviet-hatingThatcherputthispolicyunderpressure.
Reagan’salliesinGermany,theoppositionCDU(ChristianDemocratUnion),werewaitinginthewings.
TheCDUhaddominatedWestGermangovernmentsbetweentheendofthewarin1945and1969.Since
1969,theSPDhadbeeninpower,inacoalitionwiththeliberalparty,theFDP.TheChristianDemocrats
hadpursuedanunwaveringlyanti-Communistpoliticalapproach,andwereespeciallyhostiletoEast
Germany.SuccessiveCDUgovernmentsrefusedtohaveanythingtodowithEastGermanregimeon
accountofits“undemocraticcharacter”,andgovernmentdoctrinestipulatedthatWestGermanywould
withdrawdiplomaticcontactfromanycountrythatestablisheddiplomaticrelationswithEastGermany.
TheCDUdominatedWestGermanpoliticsafterthewar,givingWestGermanyafirmlyanti-Soviet
character.
ThatchangedwhenBrandtcametopowerin1969asthefirstSPDChancellor.Evenbefore1969,inhis
previousjob,asmayorofWestBerlin,Brandthadarguedforandpursuedpoliciesthatwouldlessen
tensionsbetweenEastandWestGermany,primarily,byhisaccount,toincreasecommercebetweenthe
twoandfacilitatefamilyvisits.Butarguablyitwasmorethanthat:Ostpolitikinstitutedalive-and-let-live
approachbetweenthetwohostileblocsinthecoldwar;Brandtarguedthattheundemocraticsystem
wouldchangethroughlongtermpeacefulwesterninfluence,throughtradeandcontacts,ratherthanCold
Warstyleconfrontation,whichwouldjustcausetheregimesoftheEasttoretrench.
Asasignofpeacefulintent,BrandtsignedthetreatyofMoscowin1970,whichrenouncedtheuseof
forceandrecognisedcurrentEuropeanborders.OnefearSovietleadershadwasalwaysthattheGermans
wouldriseagainandtrytoattacktheSovietUnionthethirdtimeinacentury.TheTreatyofWarsaw,
signedaroundthesametime,attemptedtoreassurethePolestoo,byrecognisingtheOder-Neisseline,the
postwarPolish-GermanborderwhichhadextendedPolishterritoryfarintowhat,until1945,hadbeen
Germanlands.AseminalmomentinthetroubledhistoryofPolish-Germanrelationscameduring
Brandt’sstatevisittoWarsawin1970,attheapparentlyspontaneouskneelingdownbeforethePolish
monumenttoPoleskilledbytheNazisduringtheWarsawghettouprising.BrandtbecameTime
Magazine’smanoftheyearfor1970,withthejustificationthat“Brandtisessentiallytryingtobringabout
anewrelationshipbetweenEastandWest...heistryingtobringaboutanewrealityinhisboldapproach
totheSovietUnionandtheEastbloc.”BrandtwasawardedtheNobelPeaceprizeinOsloin1971for
hisEast-Westpeaceinitiatives;thistriptoScandinaviarepresentedasortofhomecomingfortheWest
Germanleader.
BrandthadseveralfriendsamongScandinavianSocialDemocrats,whogenerallysupportedhis
Ostpolitik.OneclosefriendwasSweden’sprimeministerOlofPalme,whosemotherwasGermansohad
culturalaffinitywithBrandt.TheaffinitywasfurtherstrengthenedbyBrandt’shistoricalconnectionsto
theScandinavianregion:ontherunfromtheNazisinthe1930s,hehadacquiredNorwegiancitizenship
andworkedasajournalistintheSpanishcivilwar.WhenNorwaywasoccupiedbytheNazisin1940,
BrandtfledtoneutralStockholmwherehespenttherestofthewar.Brandtthereforespokefluent
NorwegianandSwedish.Duringhischancellorshipinthelatesixtiesandearlyseventies,Brandt
introducedseveralSwedishleftiststylesocialreformsintotherelativelyconservativeWestGerman
society,includinggreaterlegalrightsforwomenandabanoncorporalpunishmentinschools.Amnesty
wasgrantedforminoroffencesconnectedwithdemonstrations.Amorepacifistapproachwasintroduced
inthemilitary,withareductionintheperiodofnationalservice,andtheBundeswehr–theWestGerman
army–wasforcedtointroduceanewphilosophy,basedontheideaofthe“citizeninuniform”.
SchmidttookoverfromBrandtin1974andwhilesomethingsweredifferent–thoughaSocialDemocrat,
SchmidtdidnotreachouttothesixtiesgenerationinthewarBrandtdid,andhehadanorganized
approachtotheeconomythatappealedtoThatcherandkeptWestGermanunemploymentdown-in
foreignpolicytherewascontinuity:SchmidtarguablycontinuedBrandt’sOstpolitik,notleastfortrade
reasons,butalsobecausehewishedtocreateaspaceformanoeuvreforWestGermany,anindependence
ofactionvis-a-vistheUnitedStates.Whilethechain-smoking,coollylogicalSchmidt,Wehrmacht
veteranoftheEasternfrontin1944,authorofbooksonforeignpolicyandpoliticalethics,hadanold
fashionedGermanexterior,(aTeutonicmasculinitywhichappealedtoThatcherasaperson)which
contrastedtoBrandt’semotionality,appearancescoulddeceive:hewasthemachohawkhelooked.
Schmidthad,afterall,beendefenceministerintheBrandtgovernmentandpushedthroughthepacifist
reformsinthemilitary.HealsosecondedBrandt’sstatementsthatOstpolitikmarkedaphraseofmaturity
andequalityforWestGermanyinrelationtoitswesternallies,meaningtheUnitedStates.
WhiletheearlyyearsofhischancellorshipsawSchmidtfocusondomesticaffairstotryandgetthe
economyonitsfeetaftertheoilcrisisof1974,hekeptupEast-Westrelations,albeitwithamore
concretefocus,lessconcernedwithsymbolism.
Significantly,sayGermanhistorians,goodWestGerman-EastGermanrelationswerekeptupevenafter
theNATODoubletrackdecisionandSovietinvasionofAfghanistan–thelattereventwhichhadmarked
thefinalstrawforMargaretThatcherandRonaldReagan.AshistorianAvrilPittmanwrites,“atthesame
speedthatEast-Westrelationswentdown,theFederalRepublicandtheGermanDemocraticrepublic
triedtokeepupGerman-Germanrelations.”ThereportoftheFederalMinistryofintraGermanrelations
for1980stated:
“Inviewofthepoliticalsituationoftheyear1980whichwasovershadowedbyinternationalburdensand
strainsinEast-Westrelations(problemsofmilitarysecurity,Afghanistancrisis,Olympicboycott,also
developmentsinsidetheEasternbloc)theFederalGovernmentstrovetopreventtherelationsbetweenthe
twoGermanstatesfromcausingadditionalproblemsbutratherthroughtalksatdifferentlevelsto
carefullycontinuetodevelopthesituation.”
DespitethebreakdownofrelationsbetweentheUS/UKandtheUSSR,bothGermanstatesfelttheir
expectationsofdétentehadbeen“largelyfulfilled”(accordingtoPittman)andbothstateswishedto
conducttheirrelationsasbefore.ThatmeantthatEastGermanycontinuedtoexportproductsintothe
Europeanmarketonduty-freeEECterms(becauseofthespecialeconomicrelationshipwithWest
Germany,itwasnotregardedasaforeignstatebutadomestici.e.EECone.)EastGermanycontinuedto
benefitfrominterestfreeloansandreceivedageneroussourceofincomefromprisonerexchanges–
whereWestGermanyboughtoutundesirablesfromtheEast.
Pittmanwritesthat“theGDRdidnoteffectanynegativerepercussionsonintra-Germanrelations
followingtheNATOdoubletrackdecision,indeedthereversewastrue”.Thedayafterthatdecision,
ErichHonecker,theleaderofEastGermany,toldthecentralcommitteeoftheEastGermanCommunists
thatSchmidtwouldvisitEastGermanyinthenearfutureandthatareturnvisitwasplanned.Afterthe
NATOdecision,BonnwasattackedbytheSovietpressofbeingamoreorlesswillingaccompliceof
Washington’s“adventurism”,buttheEastGermanpresscarefullyrefrainedfromattackingSchmidt,even
overthematteroftheOlympicboycott.
Tradecontinuedtoflourishinthewinterof1979-80,withHoneckerpredictingthatthe“soundbarrier”,
the10bndeutschmarktradefigure,wouldbebreached,andtheGDRannouncedanambitiousnewEast-
Westelectrificationschemeoftherailways.WestGermanmoneycontinuedtoflowtoEastGermanyin
returnforEastGermanmotorwayandrailwayaccessagreements.WhenSchmidtandHoneckermetat
YugoslavleaderTito’sfuneralinBelgradeinMay1980,theyassuredeachotherofcontinuedgood
relations:HoneckeractedasanadvocateforBrezhnev’sconcernaboutthestationingofPershingIIand
cruisemissilesandcontainedaboutAmericanpropagandablackeningtheSovietUnion.Heregrettedthat
WestGermanywasgoingtoboycotttheOlympics,andurgedSchmidttokeephisappointmenttomeet
BrezhnevinMoscow.SchmidtrespondedbysayinghewasnotalwaysconvincedaboutPresident
Carter’snow(postAfghanistan)Sovietphobicstanceandhefeltthatdétentepolicyshouldbecontinued,
despiteallthesetbacks.
WhileSchmidtcriticisedSovietrearmament,HoneckerlaterfeltconfidentenoughinSchmidt’sbasic
stancetobeabletoreporttoMoscowthatSchmidtbasicallystillviewedSchmidtasapolitician
committedtopeaceandthatSchmidthadlittleinclinationtogoalongwiththeAmericanandBritish
policyofpunishingtheSovietUnion.
ThiswastoputSchmidtonacollisioncoursewithLondonandWashington.
InJune/July1980,ChancellorSchmidtwenttoMoscow.Inhisstatementtothefederalgovernmentonthe
MoscowtalksSchmidtsaid:“Inadditiontothisdetailedexchangeofthoughtsaboutinternational
problemswealsospokeofcourseaboutthedevelopmentofbilateralrelations.Istressedourinterestina
furtherdevelopmentofrelationswiththeGermanDemocraticRepublic.Ialsopointedoutthatfacilitation
andexpansionoftouristtrafficfromtheGDRtotheFederalRepublicwouldbenefitdétentebetweenEast
andWest.”
ThisinformationsuggeststhatSchmidtwasstillkeenondétente,eightmonthsaftertheinvasionof
AfghanistanandwithThatcherbreathingfireagainsttheSovietUnion.WheredoesSchmidt’sreputation
asahawkcomefrom?PerhapsbecauseheiscreditedwithpushingCarterintothedualtrackdecisionas
ameanstoensurehiscountry’ssecurity.HistorianKristinaSpohrwritesinabiographyofSchmidt,the
GlobalChancellor(2016),that“thedecision’sseedshadbeensownininternalalliancediscussionsin
1977-78,butitwasSchmidtwhoinstigatedthecrucialdeliberations,at(thesummitin)Guadeloupein
January1979,bringingtogethertheleadersofWestGermany,France,BritainandAmerica...TheWest’s
decisiononthedualtrackelevenmonthslaterembodiedSchmidt’sfundamentalstrategicconceptof
attainingequilibriumofstrategicforcesinEurope–eitherbymutualarmsreductionsorredressing
imbalancebynewdeployments.Bothindiplomaticpracticeandstrategicthought,Schmidthaddecisively
shapedNATO’sdecision.”
However,SchmidthimselftoldAmericanjournalistsin1981thatthedecisionhadbeenCarter’sandthat
ithadbeenimposedonhim.Inotherwords,mosthistoriansgetthispictureofSchmidt’shawkishness
wrong.
ItwasPresidentCarter’sidea.ItwasCarterwho,attheleaders’summitinGuadeloupe,had“presented”
theplantohim,and“Iboughtit,”but,saidSchmidt,“Iwasneverenthusiastic.Ineverwas.”Asked
whetherhewashavingsecondthoughtsbecauseofthegrowinganti-nuclearmovementSchmidtsaidhe
hadhadsecondthoughtstwoyearsearlierwhenheaskedthetwosuperpowerstonegotiate.Inother
words,hehadsecondthoughtsfromtheverybeginning.
CarterandSchmidthadanotoriouslybadrelationship,despiteorratherperhapsbecauseoftheUnited
States’sgrowinghostilitytotheSovietUniontowardstheendofhispresidency–symbolisedbyhisrole
inthedualtracknegotiations-perhapsinfluencedbyhishawkish,PolishbornNationalSecurityAdviser
ZbigniewBrzezinski.SchmidthadsupportedPresidentFordintheelectionsof1976;Fordwasa
personalfriend,butthishadannoyedFord’sopponent,Carter.HistorianandSchmidtbiographerSpohr
writesabouttherelationshipbetweenthedovishSchmidtandtheincreasinglyhawkishCarter:
“Theirpersonalandpolicydifferencescametoaheadinanamazingconfrontationonthemarginsofthe
VeniceG7summitinJune1980.AftertheSovietinvasionofAfghanistanonChristmas1979,Schmidt…
didn’tsupporteconomicsanctionsagainsttheUSSRandwantedtokeepopensuperpowerarmscontrol
negotiations.HealsoinsistedonstickingtohisplannedvisittotheKremlininJuly.Carter’sangerwith
whatheconsideredthechancellor’sdouble-dealingwasexpressedinaprivateletterthattheWhite
Housethenleakedtothepress…..
“WhenthetwoleadersmetinVenice,Schmidtblewhistop.Togetherwiththeiraidestheyfacedoffina
cramped,hot,littlehotelroom–kneesalmosttouching.Cartercalleditan‘unbelievablemeeting’with
Schmidt‘rantingandraving’abouttheletterandaboutbeingtreatedlike‘the51ststate’.Thechancellor
wassoincensedthathewentoverthewholehistoryoftheirrelationship.Atonepointheevenexclaimed
‘Well,Idon’tmindafight’,towhichCarter’spugnaciousnationalsecurityadvisor,ZbigniewBrzezinski
retorted,‘ifafightisnecessaryIamquitepreparednottoshrinkfromafight.’”
WhilethepersonalrelationshipbetweenthelaidbackReaganandSchmidtmighthavebeenbetterthan
withthepriggishCarter,Reagan’spoliticalpositionwasevenmorehostiletoEurope’s–andWest
Germany’s–preferencesforliveandletlivewithMoscow.
ReaganhadbeenaDemocratformuchofhislife;infacthejoinedtheRepublicanpartyonlyin1962,at
theageof51.Heusedtojokethat“Ididn’tleavetheDemocraticparty,theDemocraticpartyleftme”.
HisrelentlessanticommunismhadbeenforgedinHollywood,fromhisyearsaspresidentoftheScreen
Actors’Guildwhenradicalshadplottedtotakeovertheunion.Ashemovedrightwardsinthefifties,he
avoidedSenatorMcCarthy,whomhethoughtwastooextremistinhispersecutionofrealandimagined
CommunistsinUSpubliclife.HebecamegovernorofCaliforniain1966inthewakeoftheraceriots
there;andranforpresidentin1976and1980asthecandidateoftherightintheprimaries.
In1980hewonagainstJimmyCarteronaplatformof“makingAmericagreatagain”:heurgedlower
taxes,astrongnationaldefence,amoralreinvigoration.Jokeswerepartofhisarsenal.Duringthe
electioncampaignhesaid:“Recessioniswhenyourneighbourloseshisjob.Depressioniswhenyoulose
yours.AndrecoveryiswhenJimmyCarterloseshis."HissenseoffunandsunnyCalifornianoptimism
contrastingwithCarter’sBaptistmoralismmadeAmericansfeelgoodaboutthemselves.Hislackof
intellectualismandsupposedinabilitytoconcentratewereoftencommenteduponbyEuropeansand
Americanacademicsandjournalists,butitwastheAmericanpeople,notthey,whoelectedhim.And
Americanslikedamanwhosesensibilitywasliketheirs,amantheycouldsitdownandhaveadrink
with,amanwhoofferedhopeforAmerica.
TheseventieshadbeenagrimperiodforAmericanself-confidence:defeatinVietnam,theWatergate
scandalthatledtotheimpeachmentofapresident,thetakingof52diplomatsashostagesinanIranian
revolutionthatmarkedanewtrendoffundamentalistIslamintheMiddleEast.
Andstories,atleast,oftheSovietUnion’s“advances”oneveryfront,agrowingmilitaryarsenalanda
moreaggressiveforeignpolicy,exemplifiedbytheinvasionofAfghanistan.Reaganpromisedafreshstart
–despitebeingtheoldestpresidenteverelected,nearly70onelectionday.Andhepromisedtostandup
totheSovietUnion,anevilpresenceintheworld;itwasasimplemoralityfableeveryvotercould
understand.
Reagan’sfirstadministrationincluded,amongtheusualuppermiddleclassWASPs,aninterestingbunch:
therewereJewishneocons,exspieswithatasteforcovertoperations,andpoliticalfriendsfrom
Californiadayswhom,inthewordsofBritishjournalistPaulFoot,werebackwoodsmenincowboy
bootswhoknewnothingaboutforeignpolicybutforwhomtheonlygoodCommunistwasadead
Communist.ItwashardtotellReagan,whileanti-Communisthimself,atleastinthebeginning,knewof
everythingthatwasconductedinthenameofhisadministration.
PerhapsthemostegregiousexampleofthiswasReagan’sCIAdirector,BillCasey,thefirstCIAboss
evertobeawardedcabinetrank.Casey,whohadfoughtwiththeAmericanequivalentoftheSOEin
worldwar2,theOSS,workedasabusinessmanonWallStreetandthenwashighlysuccessfulas
Reagan’scampaignmanager.AccordingtoTimWeiner,theNewYorkTimescorrespondentwhowrotea
historyoftheCIA,“Caseywasacharmingscoundrel,anoldtimeWallStreetoperatorwhosefortune
camefromsellingtaxshelterstrategies.Histalentlayinbendingrulestothebreakingpoint”Thiswasa
skillhewastoputtogoodusewhencarryingoutcovertoperationsforReagan–asweshallsee..
TimWeinerwrites:“…..Reagantrustedhim,othersdidnot.‘IwasabsolutelysurprisedwhenPresident
ReaganselectedCasey,’GeraldR.Fordsaid.‘HewasnotqualifiedtobetheheadoftheCIA.’Ford's
owndirectorofcentralintelligenceagreedwholeheartedly.‘Caseywasaninappropriatechoicetohead
theCIA,’saidGeorgeH.W.Bush,whobecameReagan’svicepresident.”
WhileReaganhasprimaryresponsibilityfortheevenworseturnSoviet-USrelationstookin1981
(relationshad,aswehaveseen,alreadydeclinedinCarter’slastyearinoffice),thereisacomplexsetof
forcessurroundingtheman.Reaganwasthecandidatethattheneoconshadbacked;andsome60
membersofaneoconservativeorganisationcalledtheCommitteeofPresentDanger(CPD)joinedhis
administration.Whattheyhadincommonwasthattheywerefervently,evenreligiouslyanti-Communist.
Many,perhapsmostofthem,wereJewish;theyweretoplayabigpartontheadministrationofGeorgeW
Bush20yearslater;andtheyloathedSovietsupportforsecular,nationalistregimesintheMiddleEast
suchasSyria,EgyptandIraq,whichopposedIsrael.Theywerecombative,selfrighteousandcameout
ofJewishintellectualtraditionthatseesthingsverymuchinblackandwhite.Manyoftheolder
generationofneocons–whohadtutoredyoungerones–hadinfactbeenrevolutionarytrotskyistsintheir
1930syouth,andresentedtheWASPs’(WhiteAnglo-SaxonProtestants)griponUSpolitics,culture,
mediaanddiplomacy.SometimesonegetsthesensethattheJewishneoconsnothatedRussiansbecause
theytormentedtheirancestorsbutthealsotheWASPdiplomatswhobelievedintalkingtotheRussians
ratherthanfightingthem.LikeMargaretThatcher,theyresentedsnobbyrulingestablishments.Oneof
theseleftwingturnedfiercelyright-wingneoconswasRichardPerle,AssistantSecretaryofDefence,
whotookaparticulardisliketopacifisminWestGermanyandScandinavia.TheseNeoconsstruckupan
alliancewiththeCaliforniansinReagan’sadministration,peoplelikedefencesecretaryCaspar
Weinberger,who,despitehisname,wasagentile.
InJanuary1981,assoonashewasinstalledintheWhiteHouse,ReagansentdefencesecretaryCaspar
Weinberger,thedesignatedAdministration“heavy”inrelationstoNATOallies,toEuropetowarnthatif
theEuropeansdidnotacceptthemissiles,itwouldhavetoaccepttheneutronbombinstead.Carterhad
usedtheneutronbombasathreatafewyearsbefore.Theneutronbombhadtheeffectofkillinglarge
numbersofpeoplewithoutdestroyinginfrastructure;theverystrangenessofitmeantithadanextremely
negativeeffectonpublicopinion,especiallyinWestGermany,whereitwaslikelytobeemployed.Faced
withaHobson’schoice,thepublicweremorelikelytosupporttheeuromissiles.TheAmericanswere
exercisingakindofblackmailandtheymusthaveknownit.
Inmid-March1981HansDietrichGenscher,theGermanforeignminister,wenttoWashingtonfor
consultations.Afewdayslater,inwhatwassupposedtobeanoff-the-recordinterviewwithReuters,a
memberoftheUSNationalSecurityCouncil,RichardPipes,sentGenschertheadministration’sbasic
message,iftherewereanylingeringdoubts:therewas“nothingleftofdétente”orapeacefulrelationship
withtheSovietUnion.WashingtonwasconcernedaboutGenscher’svisittoMoscowamonthlater;Pipes
warnedthatanynegotiationswithMoscowwouldbe“pointless”.Infact,unlesstheSovietUnion
abandonedCommunism,therewas“noalternativetowar”.Whetherthiswastheadministration’s
unofficialmessageorwhetherthiswasjustPipesopiningwasuptothelistenertodecide.Pipeswas,
afterall,aseniormemberoftheAdministration.
AfghanistanwasnottheonlypointofconflictwiththeUSSRanymore.Polandwasinturmoil.The
country–aSovietsatellitestate-hadborrowedheavilyfromtheWestintheseventies,hopingtobuild
upanindustrialinfrastructureandthankstolowwagesbecomeasuccessfulmanufacturingexporter.The
inbuiltinefficienciesoftheCommunistcommandeconomy,andthetwooilcrisesof1974and1979,
ruinedthosehopesandnowthePolishstate,strugglingtopaytheinterestinthedebtstowesternbanks,
wasraisingpricesonbasicfoodstuffs.TherewerestrikesandintheshipyardsoftheportcityofGdansk,
anindependenttradeunioncalledSolidaritywassetup–adirectpoliticalchallengetothehegemonyof
thePolishCommunistparty.Soonitspreadaroundthecountry.InitiallytheSovietsencouragedthePolish
Communistpartytointroduceliberalisationreforms;therewasachangeatthetopofthePolish
leadership.TheSovietsusedamixtureofcarrotsandsticks,butpreferredaPolishsolution,wellaware
thatiftheyinvadedPolandtorestoreorder,thecoststotheireconomyfromWesternsanctionswouldbe
enormous.
HelmutSchmidthadstakedhiscareeronarmscontroltalkstoaccompanytheproposalstostation
AmericanmissilesinEurope.ButReagan,arguesAmericanhistorianRichardThornton,wasusingthe
problemsinPolandasapretexttodelayarmscontroltalkswiththeSoviets.Holdingastayinghandsent
asignaltotheSovietUnionandpresenteditwithadilemma:iftheSovietsdidnotimposeorderin
Poland,Polandmightbelost.IfontheotherhandtheSovietsimposedforcedirectlyorindirectlyit
wouldhaveimplicationsforarmscontrol.
AtthesametimeasReaganwastryingtooutmanoeuvretheSovietsonPoland,hetestinghisNATO
allies,ineffectaskingthemtoshowtheircolours.WeinbergertoldNATOalliesatanuclearplanning
groupmeetingthattherewasnodatesetfortalks;atthesametimeheurgedthealliestospendmoreon
theirdefence;headdedthatdétentewasafailure.HewentontoillustratethegrowingSovietexpenditure
onweaponsduringthedétenteyearscomparedtotheconstantinvestmentduringthefirstcoldwar.“Ifthe
movementfromColdWartodétenteisprogress,thenletmesaywecannotaffordmuchmoreprogress.”
Schmidt,asleaderofthemostpowerfulandricheststateinNATOaftertheUSA.refusedtobe
intimidated:herepliedtoWeinbergerbywayofnewspaperinterview:itwasdifficulttospendmoreon
defencerightnowandrelationswiththeUSAwouldgetworseifarmscontroltalksweredelayed.“It
wouldmeandifficultiesnotonlyformebutwiththegovernmentoftheUnitedStates.”
DirectlychallengingWeinberger,Schmidtsaid“Anyonewhosaiddétenteistoblameforeverything–that
itwasdétentethatencouragedtheSovietstobuildarmaments–shouldaskhimselfwhatSovietarmament
wouldhavebeenundertheconditionsoftheColdWar.”
TheNATOnuclearplanninggroupcameupwithacompromisetextthatindicatedtheywereonthesame
page.“WeagreethattheSovietswouldgravelyunderminethebasisforeffectivearmscontrol
negotiationsiftheyweretointerveneintheaffairsofPoland…..Polandshouldbefreetodecideherown
future.”ButWeinbergerclearlythoughtthephrasingtoomild,dealingonlywithactualintervention,soin
remarkstoreportersthenextdaydeclaredthatevenSovietthreatsofviolenceorintimidationinthe
Polishcrisiswouldprecludearmstalks.
SchmidtcalledonWeinbergertoretract:hisbasicstancewasthatarmscontroltalksshouldcontinue
regardlessofthesituationinPoland,andcertainlyiftheSovietswerenotdirectlyinvolved.Hewassick
ofpretexts.Reagan’sdovish(onthismatteratleast)secretaryofstate–AlexanderHaig–whooften
actedasago-betweenintheseunsettledmonthsbetweenWestGermanyandWashington–wentto“soothe
ruffledfeathers”inBonn.ThesituationinPolandhadgotlessacute:Solidarityandthegovernmenthad
agreedatwomonthstrikeban.ButbackinWashington,Weinbergerpressedhiscase.“TheSovietUnion
shoulddismantleitsmilitarybuild-uparoundPolandifitwantstonegotiatewiththeUnitedStatesto
limitnucleararmsinEurope.”Hedenieditwasanultimatum.“TheSovietUnionwillhaveto
substantiallyreducetrooplevelsaroundPolandbeforetheUnitedStateswillconsidernewarmscontrol
negotiations.”
Ataroundthistime,theReaganadministrationopenedupagainstSchmidtonanotherfront:theUSA
startedpressuringitsEuropeanalliestoconductanewroundofeconomicsanctionsagainsttheSoviet
Union.(SomesanctionshadtakenplaceaftertheAfghaninvasion)BillCasey,thenewlyinstalledCIA
chief–moreaboutwhomlater–hadordereda“vulnerabilityassessment”oftheSovietUnionwhichhad
resultedinsomeveryinterestingfindingsindeed.ConductedbyCIAanalysts,theassessmentsfoundthat
theSovieteconomywasextremelyweak.Thestudyconcludedthatthe“SovietUnionisgoingdownhill”
andthatoneexpensivedrainwasthenetworkofclientstatesaroundeasternEurope.“LastyearEastern
EuropecostRussianearlytwentybilliondollars,roughlyasmuchasitearnedfromallitshardcurrency
salestotheWest.”Itconcludedthattheburdenofempirewouldbeincreasinglyoneroustobearforthe
SovietUnion.TheAmericanswereintenselyawarethattheSovietswereembarkedonadesperatequest
forhightechnology–fromSchmidt’sGermany,especially–toarrestitseconomicdecline.Every
industrialsectordependedonwesterntechnology.“Itshouldbeamatterofhighnationalpolicytoplay
onthesevulnerabilities,”thereportconcluded.TheReaganadministration’shawkswantedtodestroythe
SovietUnion,notnegotiatewithitinpeace,asSchmidtwanted.Thiswasthewaytodoit:economic
warfare.
ThemostimportantprojecttargetedbytheAmericanswasthehugepipelineproject,fundedbythe
Europeans,whoalsosuppliedtechnology,tolinkunderexploitednaturalgasfieldsinSiberiatomarkets
inEurope.Thetermsoftheloans,providedbyItalian,GermanandFrenchbanks,weregenerous,which
galledtheAmericans:theprojectalsotransferredhightechnologytotheSovietsandgavethemalotof
hardcurrency.ItalsoprovidedabasisforbuildingbetterpoliticalrelationsbetweenWesternEuropeand
theSovietUnion:itwascompletelyconsonantwithSchmidt’sOstpolitik,drivingdowntensionsthrough
tradeandprofitingeconomicallyfromit.
Carterhadnotedthedealbutdonenothingaboutit,butCongresshadpassedlegislationthatallowedthe
presidentthepowerto“banexportsofanygoodstechnologyorinformationsubjecttothejurisdictionof
theUnitedStateorexportedbyapersonsubjecttothejurisdictionoftheUnitedStates.”Itcontrollednot
onlyAmericancitizensandAmericancompaniesbutanyinternationalcompanyusingAmerican
technologyunderlicence.AnditwastoproveaweaponfortheReaganadministrationwhenbringingthe
Europeanstoheel.
TheAmericansbidedtheirtimeonthisone–opinionsintheadministrationweredividedbetween
hardlinerslikeWeinbergerandrelative“doves”suchasHaig.InMay1981WeinbergerwenttoBrussels
forameetingofNATOdefenceministersandgotintoanargumentwiththeGermandefenceministerHans
ApeloverWestGermany’sreluctanttogrowitsdefencespendingbythebenchmarkof3%ayear.,the
figureagreedin1977.HealsocalledforhelptoprovidefacilitiesforaUSrapiddeploymentforcetothe
MiddleEast.TheEuropeans,accordingtoThornton,prevaricatedontherapiddeploymentforceandthe
Germandefenceministerhadtoleavethemeetingearlytodiscussdefenceexpenditureswithhis
parliament,theBundestag,finalisingaresultlowerthanwhatWeinbergerhadcalledfor.
Toheadoffpressurefromhispartyleft,Schmidtthreatenedtoresigniftheydidnotstoptheircriticism
oftheUnitedStates.HisoccasionalproUSstance,believesThornton,wasnotonlymeanttoreassure
theUnitedStatesandsendasignaltootherallies,suchastheUK,butalsoquietentheFDPcoalition
partners,whoweremorealignedwithUSandUKintereststhanSchmidt’spartyandweremakingnoises
aboutleavingthecoalitiontoformagovernmentwiththefirmlyatlanticistoppositionChristian
Democrats–afacttheAmericanswellknew.ThiswastheDamocleanswordthathungoverSchmidt’s
head.
AmeetinginWashingtoninMay1981betweenReaganandSchmidtwentwell:theyagreedthatthe
SovietoccupationofAfghanistanwas“unacceptable”andcoveredthepipelinequestioninanon-
committalsentenceattheend.Itwasaboutcreatingmoodmusic.ButonceSchmidtwasbackinBonn,the
relationshiptookaturnfortheworsewhentheBundestagconfirmedadefencebudgetlowerthanwhat
SchmidthadagreedwithWeinbergerinMay.EvenworsefromWeinberger’spointofviewwas
Schmidt’sleftwingpartychairman’sWillyBrandt’svisittoMoscowwherehetoldwestern
correspondentsthathehadputforwardtheideaofanorthernnuclearfreezone.(Actuallyitwasa
NorwegianandSwedishidea:seechaptersthatfollow.)Thiscouldbeamodelforgeneratingdiscussions
elsewhereinEurope.ThispushedthepowerfulMunichbranchoftheSPDtoinsistthatSchmidt
withdrawWestGermany’sapprovalofthedoubledecision.
TheAmericanstookaharderlinethereforewhenthealliesmetattheG7summitinOttawainJune1981.
ReaganwantedtoreviveCoCom,aParis-basedcoordinatingcommitteethatwouldbetaskedwith
determiningwhattechnologyexportscouldbemadetotheEast.Schmidtdecidedtogethisretaliationin
firstbyblamingtheUSA’shighinterestratesforloweconomicactivityintherestoftheworld:hetold
ABCnewsthathedeniedthata“twowaytradebetweenEuropeancountriesandtheSovietUnionis
militarilystrengtheningaCommunistnation”.HeaddedthattradewiththeUSSRwasnogreaterthan
WestGermany’stradewithSwitzerland,and,withreferencetoAmericanconcernsaboutthepipeline:
“TherearesomecriticsintheUnitedStateswhotellmeweshouldn’tbuygasformtheSovietUnion,but
theyhaven’tofferedmeAmericannaturalgasyousee.AndthereistheAtlantic,anocean,betweenus
whereastheSovietUnionisrathernearby.”TheWestGermanleader’ssatiricalsideswipeagainst
ReaganwasnotedinWashington.
ThesummitinOttawasawtheEuropeanspresentaunitedfrontontheirgaspipeline;frustratingReagan.
Soafterwardshesentanotherofhishawks,RichardPerle,anassistantsecretaryatthePentagon,tosome
ofthesmallerEuropeancountriesinScandinaviaandBeneluxtowarnthemoftheperilsofillicitexport
ofhightechnologytotheSovietUnion“TightenyourcontrolsorrisklosingaccesstoUStechnologies.”
BackinBonn,SchmidtdefendedreduceddefencespendingbyhighinterestssetbyReaganwhichmade
loansexpensive.Theonlywaytoreducegovernmentborrowingwastospendless.Schmidtwaswalking
atightropebetweenhisparty,whichwantedtospendmoreonsocialwelfarefortheWestGermanpeople,
andtheFreeDemocratswhowantedtofundtaxcutswhichevenfurtherreducedspending.
TheinfuriatedReaganitesonceagaintalkedaboutinstallingneutronbombsinEurope;thisbroughtout
ChristianDemocratsupportinBonnandangeredtheSPD,puttingpoliticalpressureonSchmidt.Schmidt
hadapprovedofneutronbombsin1978butknewpartyopinionhatedit.Hegavehimselfthreeweeks’
holidayandsaidafterwardsheapprovedoftheminprinciple,butwasparticularabouttheconditions.
addingthat“ourAmericanfriendsshouldbegiventheadvicetowatchcloselytheeffectsoftheirpolitical
statementsontheEuropeans”.Hewasattackedfromtheleftofhisparty.EgonBahr,defenceintellectual
andformerBrandtaide,claimedthatWashingtonwasusingNATOtorunWesternEuropeasits
protectorate.
RememberthatReagan’sbasicprojectwastodestroytheSovietUnion,whichcutacrosstheWest
Germans’projecttocoexistwiththeSovietUnionandtradewithittomutualbenefit.Europeanpublic
opinionwasworriedabouttheanti-Communist,anti-SovietwarrhetoriccomingoutofWashington,and
theWhiteHousewashavingproblemsgettingitsalliesonsideinitscrusade.Theclimaxofthestewing
crisisinPoland,evenmorethanAfghanistantwoyearsearlier,provedReagan’sopportunitytocreate
difficultiesfortheSoviets.
On12December1981,theSolidaritymovementmetinGdanskandthrewdownthegauntlettothe
Communistgovernment.Itcalledforanon-Communistgovernmentandarenegotiatedrelationshipwith
theSovietUnion.WojciechJaruzelski,thegeneralwhocommandedthePolishgovernment,wasreadyfor
themoment.Helaunchedhislongplannedcrackdownatdawnthenextmorning.HeannouncedaCouncil
ofNationalSalvation,andarrestedover6,000people-“troublemakers”-onthefirstdayalone.They
werechargedwithtreason,subversionandcounterrevolution.Walesa,theelectricianwhohadcomeout
ofnowheretobecomeleaderofSolidarityandinternationalfolkhero,wasconfinedtoahuntinglodge.
Fortythousandpeoplewereindetentionwithinthreeweeks.Butthiswasnot1952:therewereno
executions,notorture,noshowtrials.Leadingformerpartymembers,likeformerprimeministerGierek,
werealsoheld.AccordingtoThornton,thecoldwarhistorian,whileMoscowclaimeditwasnot
involvedinthecrackdowninitsneighbour,thiswasuntrue.TheSovietshadadvisedandconsultedthe
Polishsecurityforcesonhowtocarryoutthecrackdown,andseniorSovietofficershadflowntoWarsaw
tooverseepreparations.SovietjammersblockedwesternTVandradiosignals,preventingthePolesfrom
findingoutwhatwasgoingonfromtheBBCWorldService.
ReaganactedimmediatelyafterthePolishdeclarationofmartiallaw.Hestopped$100millionincredits
forfeedgrainsforthePolishmeatindustry,anddelayedadecisiononfoodaidworth$740million.But
Schmidtobjected:hethoughtMoscowmightstillonlybemarginallyinvolvedandinsistedthattherehad
tobeanoutrightinvasiontoterminaterelations.Hesaidthecrackdownhadbeennecessaryandurged
Reagannottooverreact.
Reaganratchetedupthepressure,though.HesaidbeforeChristmasthatheviewedthePolishcrisisinthe
gravestoftermsandthatitwouldbenaivetothinkthiscouldhavehappenedwithoutthefullknowledge
oftheSovietUnion.Therewouldbeno“businessasusual”withthePolishgovernmentwhilethecauseof
thePolishpeople“...isours”.HesuspendedcivilaviationprivilegestotheUS,andbannedallshipping
ofdairyandagriculturalproductstoPoland.HealsorestrictedtechnologyexportstoPoland.Hewrotea
lettertoBrezhnev,theSovietleader,andstatedthat“IfthisrepressioncontinuestheUnitedStateswill
havenochoicebuttotakefurtherconcretemeasuresaffectingourrelationship.”
Brezhnev’sreplywasextremelynegative,citingReagan’sharshrhetoricasablatantinterferencein
Poland’saffairs.TheSovietUnion,saidReagan,wouldbeartheconsequencesforattemptingtoimpose
itswillonPoland.ReaganmadegoodonhiswordbysuspendingallAeroflotflightstotheUS,closing
theSovietpurchasingcommission,stoppingalllicencesallowingexporttotheUSSRofcomputersand
otherhightechnologymaterial.Hestoppednegotiationsonanewgrainexportagreement;suspending
talksonmaritimeagreements;bannedtheexportofoilandgaspipelineequipment.Exchangeagreements
alsoceasedtoapply.
Schmidt,whowasinFloridaonholidaywhenReagandidallthis,hurriedtoWashingtontoensurethe
pipelineandarmscontroltalkscouldbesaved.HerehefoundhimselfatoddswithhisEuropeanallies:
theFrenchdefenceministerCharlesHernuandUSDefencesecretaryWeinbergerissuedajointstatement
criticisingmartiallawandsayingtheUSSRwastoblameforit.ThatcherurgedherEuropeanalliesto
jointheUSinsanctions.Schmidtseemedtoachieveaface-savingdealwheninajointstatementReagan
andSchmidtreaffirmedcommitmenttoarmscontrolandtherewasnomentionofthepipeline.
ThehardlinersintheReaganadministrationwerenotfinishedwiththeSovietbloc,though.Polandhad
internationaldebtsof$27billion.WeinbergersuggestedPolandbedeclaredindefault,tocreateacredit
crisisfortheentireEastbloc.IftheWestdemandedtheUSSRcoverthePolishdebtandtheUSSR
refusedtopayitwouldexposethemythoftheSovietUnionasthepayeroflastresort,itwouldendeast
westtrade,whiletheUScouldstartseizingPolishassetsabroad.Moderatesintheadministration
includingsecretaryofstateHaigsaidthemovewouldcreateaninternationalbankingcrisis,affectingEast
andWest,and,backedbyTreasurysecretaryDonRegan,gotWeinbergertobackoff.
DespitethejointstatementwithSchmidtthatdidn’tmentionthepipeline,Reaganmovedaheadon8
January1982toissueanorderbanningUSfirmGeneralElectricfromsellinggasturbinecomponentsto
theEuropeanengineeringcompaniesthathadcontractstobuildtheSovietpipelineinfrastructure.They
includedtheUK’sJohnBrown,Italy’sNuovoPinoneandGermany’sAEGKanis.However,sincesome
equipmenthadalreadybeenexported,andtheFrenchmovedaheadwiththeircontracttobuySovietgas,
themostReagancouldhopeforwastodelay,andlimit,pipelineexpansion:onestrandwouldbebuilt
withthematerialalreadygone,butitmightbepossibletogetthesecondoneputonhold.Thedelays
coulddamageSoviethardcurrencyearningsatatimewhensinkingoilpricesmadetheSovietdealseem
lessappealingfortheEuropeansthanayearortwobefore,whensky-highMiddleEasternoilpriceshad
prevailed.TheSoviettradebalancehadshiftedfroma$217msurplustoa$3bndeficit.
InJanuary,publiclytheEuropeans–evenWestGermany-linedupbehindReagan’sbellicosity.Ajoint
foreignministers’statementsaidthat“theSovietUnionhasnorighttodeterminepoliticalandsocietal
developmentinPoland”andministerscalledonJaruzelskitoendandthestateofmartiallawandrelease
thosewhohadbeenarrested.Thealliessaidtheycontinuedtofavourarmscontrolbutstatedthat“the
SovietUnionwillbearthefullresponsibilityofitsactionswithregardtoPolandanditsfailuretoliveup
toexistingobligationsdamagethearmscontrolprocess.”Inthemeantimetheallieshurriedtofinalise
pipelinerelatedmatters:TheWestGermanargumentwasthatsanctionsonlyappliedtonewcontracts,not
existingones,whiletheFrenchsigneda25yeargassupplycontractandextendedcreditssothatthe
SovietscouldbuymoreFrenchpipelineequipment.TheItaliansdidthesame.TheAmericansresponded
bycallingforharshersanctionsataCoCommeetingonJanuary19,1982.BonnmeanwhilesaidthatWest
Germancompanies,bannedfrombuyingAmerican,wouldseekelsewherefortechnologytocompletethe
pipeline.
Atthemeeting,Reaganofficialsproposedthealliessubmitalltradedealsworthover$100millionfor
priorapproval;French,BritishandGermansallrejectedthis.TheAmericansthenthreatenedtoextend
pipelinesanctionstocompaniesmanufacturingAmericantechnologyunderlicence,TheEuropeanswere
presentedwithanultimatum,whichReagansignedoffoninNationalSecurityDirectiveNSDD24.
EithertheEuropeansraisethecostofprovidingloanstotheUSSRortheUnitedStateswouldprohibit
subsidiariesorlicenseesofUScompaniesinEuropeformexportingoilorgasequipmenttotheUSSR.
ReaganalsoletthethreathangingovertheEuropeansofmakingPolanddefaultalthoughhephrased
hethreatinsuchawaythattalkedaboutwhatWashingtoncouldtodotohelpifsuchadefault“occurred”.
Againtheadministrationwasdivided.DespitetheclearmessageofNSDD24,thedovishAlHaig,
secretaryofstate,proposedaEuropeansolution:afacesavingsolution(forReagan)thatwouldallow
the23AmericanrotorsthathadalreadybeenshippedtoEuropetobeshippedonwardstoRussiafor
“testing”,sincethiswouldnottechnicallybreachthetermsofthesanctions.Theserotorshadbeenmade
beforethesanctionswereslappeddown.Inaddition,Alsthomwouldbeauthorisedtosupplyfortyrotors
builtbylicencefromAmerica’sGEasperthecontractwiththeSovietUnion.
Assistantsecretaryofstate,theneoconservativeRichardPerle,objected:hesaidthechangingeconomy
meanttheprojectwasnolongernecessary.DemandfornaturalgasinEuropewasactuallyshrinking;and
therewerenewdevelopmentscomingonstreamintheNorthSeaandAlaska.Therewasnoneedto
importrequirementsfromtheEast.Healsopooh-poohedGermanChancellorHelmutSchmidt’stheory
thattradelessenedhostilitybetweennations:inthecaseoftheUSSRitclearlyhadn’tworked,hadit?
Quitetheopposite:increasedtradehadhelpedtheUSSRtoexpandfastermilitarily(Perleclaimed)than
itotherwisewouldhavedone.TheeconomiclinksasaresultofgastradewouldstrengthenMoscow’s
influenceoverEuropeandthatwasabadthing.Also,WesternEuropewouldbevulnerabletosudden
stoppages:therewereno“spotmarkets”forgasastherewereforoil.Inaddition,sinceWesternbanks
werefundingthepipeline,theywerevulnerabletoSovietnon-paymentofloans,whichputafurther
elementofcontrolinMoscow’shands.“Theenormouscapitalneedsofthepipelinewilldisplace
potentialinvestmentinsaferwesternalternatives.”Heconcluded:itwasbettertostrengthenthebonds
amongfriendsthandeepenWesternindependenceon“ouradversaries”.
Perle’sargumentsledReagantoappointadelegationledbyUndersecretaryofStateJamesBuckleyto
meetEuropeanleadersandlaydowntheline.ThepresidentfollowedupNSDD24–whichspecified
pipelinesanctions–withfourothernationalsecuritydirectives,NSDD54,NSDD66,andNSDD75,the
latterageneralstrategyforvanquishingtheSovietUnion.
FastforwardafewmonthstotheVersaillesgloballeaders’summitinJune1982,whichwasakindof
showdown.Reagandrewaredline:ifthealliesrefusedtoagreeonextendedfinancialsanctionson
Moscow,thesanctionswouldbeextendedunilaterally.Thistime,unlikeinJanuary,Europeansmadea
commonfront–evenThatcher–andrefused,irritatedbyapparentlyAmericandoublestandards.The
AmericanshadjustbackeddownonagrainexportembargototheSovietUnioninordertoplacateits
ownfarmlobby.
Schmidt,nowattheendofthetetherashesawhisOstpolitikbeingsabotaged.wasespeciallyoffensive
towardsReagan.ThisishowthehistorianinchargeoftheMargaretThatcherarchives–withaccessto
allpapersrelatingtothatsummit,andmuchmore–sumsitup:
“AdespatchfromOliverWright,Britain'snewAmbassadortotheUS,inplaceoftheoutstandingly
successfulNickoHenderson,reflectedonthedebacleandsuggestedthatthemanwhohadcausedmost
damagewasSchmidt,despiteMitterrand'sbesteffortstoclaimthattitleforhimself.Wordcirculated
quietlyinWashingtonthatwhatreallymadeReaganmadatVersailleswasthatHelmutSchmidtmadeit
alltooobviousthathethoughtwhatReaganwassayingwasnotworthlisteningto.SowhenMitterrand
wentpublic[sayingthattherewasnothingnewinthesummitagreementonEast-Westtrade,contraryto
whattheAmericanswereclaiming],thePresidentwhosecredibilityheputatriskwasalreadyanangry
man.”
“OnegetstheflavourfromAttali'spublisheddiary,whichhasSchmidtsayingtoMitterrandofReaganon
5June:"Cetypemefatigue.Ilestnul!"["Thisguytiresmeout.Heisnothing".](Attali,Verbatim,
volume1,p242).
AsThorntonwrites:“Thealliestreatedthepresident’sattemptstoobtaincreditrestraintsagainstthe
SovietUnionwithcoolcontempt.Insteadofthemeaningfulagreementhesought,heobtainedonlylip
serviceabouttheneedforcommercialprudenceinlimitingexportcredits….IndeedMitterrandand
Schmidtlefttheconferencedeclaringtheywereundernospecialobligationtolimitexportcreditstothe
SovietUnion.”
AfterVersailles,ReaganwenttoRometomeetthePope–afellowanti-Communist–thenwentto
LondontospeaktotheHouseofCommons.AttheNATOsummitinBonnhewasgreetedbyprotesters
whochanted“Reagangohome!”.Again,Schmidtwasstubborn:whenReaganraisedtheissueofpipeline
sanctions,Schmidtpointedlylookedoutofthewindow.AfterwardsSchmidtreleasedastatementwhich
saidhewashappythattheUnitedStates“couldnotforceEuropeintoeconomicwarfareagainstthe
Soviets”.
Reagannowtookaneventougherline.OnhisreturntoWashington,heinstructedhisadministrationto
playhardball.Sanctions,whichhadhithertobannedAmericancompaniesfromsellinggaspipeline
technologytotheSovietUnion,werenowextendedunilaterallyandextraterritorially:subsidiariesof
AmericancompaniesandEuropeancompanieswhichimportedAmericantechnologyormanufactured
AmericantechnologyunderlicencewouldbeforbiddentoexporttotheSovietUnion.On24June1982
theCommercedepartmentstatedwhatwouldhappen:first,awarningletterwouldbesentout.Then,if
firmsdidnotdesist,theywouldbeputonadeniallimitthatprohibitedthemfromreceivinggoodsordata
fromtheUS.Finally,finesofupto$100,000couldbelevied.LionelOlmer,USthecommercesecretary,
reckonedifthemainlicenseeofAmericanpipelinetechnology,FrenchengineeringcompanyAlsthom,did
nottrytobreaktherules,theSoviet-Europeanprojectwouldbedelayedbytwoyears.TheFrench
companydenieditwasboundbyre-exportrulessayingitcouldsowhatitliked.
AllmainEuropeanleadersimmediatelysaidtheywouldtelltheircompaniestohonourtheircontracts,
andresistedUSpressuretomaketheircompaniesobeyUSdictatesbyextendingUSlawtoEurope.The
Frenchwerethefirsttoattemptdefiancebyshippingseveralofthe23turbinestheyhadalreadybuilt.
DresserFrance,asubsidiaryofaTexancompanyofthatname,hadstoredthreecompressorstheyhad
completedinstorageatLeHavre.TheFrenchgovernment“requisitioned”thecompressors,thenhada
Frenchcompany,CreusotLoire,shipthecompressorsonaFrenchfreighter,Borodino,whichsetofffor
Riga.
Within35minutesoftheBorodino’sdeparture,theUSputatemporarydenialorderonDresserFrance
andCreusotLoire.ThetwocompanieswerebannedfromimportingUSgoodsandservicesuntilfurther
notice.Itwasarelativelymildoption,andthenewSecretaryofStateGeorgeShultzleakedthrough
newspapersthatanegotiatedsettlementmightinvolveliftingsanctionsiftheEuropeansstiffenedthe
controlsoncreditstotheSovietUnion.Inotherwords,iftheEuropeansgottougherwiththeSovietson
onedemandbytheAmericans,theAmericansmightbepreparedtocompromiseontheother.TheNew
YorkTimes,“quotingseniorofficials”,letitbeknownthatsanctionscouldbeliftedifEuropelimited
exportcredits,limitedtechnologytransfers,limitedotherexportsandcancelledthesecondstrandofthe
pipelinecontracts.AtthesametimeShultzdecidedtorestrictingpenaltiesagainstnewinfringements
onlytocovergasandoilequipmentratherthanacrosstheboardashadhappenedintheDressercase.So
whenJohnBrownEngineeringofGlasgowwaspreparingtosendsixcompressorstotheUSSR,British
officialssoughtassuranceAmericanpenaltieswouldonlyaffectthesamefieldssinceJohnBrown’s
businessconnectionstotheUnitedStateswerehighlydiverseandextensive.Thecompanywouldgo
bankruptifpenaltieswereextendedacrosstheboard.ThiswishwasgrantedbytheAmericans.When
JohnBrowndidshiptotheUSSR,denialorderswereissuedthatprohibitedimportofUSoilandgas
technologyonly.
Thatautumn,thelongstrugglebetweenEuropeandtheReaganadministrationwasbeingresolvedin
Reagan’sfavour,writesThornton:“Armscontrolandthepipelinewerethepolicyissuesinthestruggle
buttheobjectwasalwaysGermanpoliticsandstrategy”,heargues.ReaganwasthewinnerandSchmidt
theloser.
TheSPDwerelosingdomesticsupportandfinallytheFDPleftthecoalitionledbyHelmutSchmidtas
pollsshowedtheywerefacingelectoralwipe-outtotheanti-nucleargreenparty–whomighthavebeen
theSPD’snextnaturalcoalitionpartner.Instead,FDPleaderGenscherjoinedHelmutKohl,leaderofthe
pro-AmericanCDU,andagreedwithhimtopostponetheGermangeneralelectionforfourmonthstothe
givetheFDPachancetorepairitspoliticalimage.
TheabandoningofSchmidtbytheFDPisoneofthewatershedeventsinWestGermanandColdwar
history,andhasn’tbeennearlywellenoughdocumented.OneGermansourcetoldmethattheUSembassy
hadaslushfundtobribetheFDPtodefectandcausethepoliticaldestructionofHelmutSchmidt.Itisa
sensationalclaim;butIhaveseentheproofofthis.
HelmutKohl,whosucceededSchmidt,turnedouttobearesolutefriendofWashington.TheGermans,
whooriginallysidedwiththeFrench,werenowconspicuousintheirrefusaltosupporttheFrenchover
pipelineandtradequestions.ThealliesagreedatoughertraderegimewiththeSoviets,whilebeing
allowedtoplayoutoutstandingcontracts.ChancellorKohlarrivedinWashingtonon13November1982
determinedto“rescuetheGerman-Americanrelationshipfromthetwilight”,ashestatedinaninterview
withBradleyGrahamoftheWashingtonPost.
Atthebeginningof1983,thepoliticalsituationwasverydifferentthantheyearbefore.Reaganhadbeen
writingaseriesofnationalsecuritydirectivesthatsoughttorollbacktheUSSReconomically-usingthe
pipelinesasaleadissue–andbyDecemberhadfoundalongtermcodificationofSovietstrategy.Itwent
muchfurtherthanthecontainmentstrategydrawnupin1950,withitsexplicitfocusonweakeningand
undercuttingSovietpower.
Atthesametime,leftwingleadershipshadgivenwaytorightwinggovernmentsinseveralEuropean
states.WritesThornton:“NATOhadbeenrevitalisedandaconservativeaxisconsistingoftheUnited
States,theUnitedKingdom,WestGermanyandincludingNorwayandtheNetherlands,wastaking
shape.”SchmidthadthemostpowerfulopponentofregimechangeintheSovietUnion,andnowhewas
gone,andhisOstpolitikwithit.
Swedenwasoneofthefewcountrieswheretherewasaleftwinggovernment.Forsome,OlofPalme,
heldupthehopethathewouldmaintaintheatmosphereofOstpolitiknowthatSchmidtwasgone.But
Palmewasopposedateveryturnbythedomesticright,andSwedenhadjuststartedtosuffermysterious
submarineintrusions.
3.HAWKSVERSUSDOVES
Theyears1981and1982sawseveralcountriesinWesternEuropeturfoutleftwing,prodetente
governmentsandchooseright-wing,Atlanticistones.WestGermanywasthemostimportantcountry:
HelmutSchmidt’scoalitionpartners,thecentristFDP,jumpedshipandformedacoalitionwiththe
ChristianDemocratsunderHelmutKohl.Kohlwas,andremained,agoodallyofMargaretThatcherand
RonaldReaganuntiltheendoftheColdWar.WestGermanywas,fromKohl’saccession,outofthe
detenteequation.
OneremainingleftwinggovernmentthatwasinpowerwasinSweden,whereOlofPalmewasaclose
friendofWillyBrandt’s–stillpresidentoftheGermanSocialDemocrats.Beforehecameintooffice,
PalmehadlongsignalledhewasplanningtorunaSwedishvariantofOstpolitik.Whenhecameinto
office,hisallyinthismatter,HelmutSchmidt,fellfrompower.Infact,theverysamemonth.Ostpolitik-
stretchingoutthehandoffriendshiptotheSovietUnion-becamealonelyactivity–anditwas
immediatelychallenged.
Thesameweek,asithappens,asthevoteofnoconfidenceagainstHelmutSchmidt,Swedenwas
subjectedtothefirstinacampaignofsubmarineintrusionsthatchallengedPalme’sOstpolitiktothecore.
ThesubmarineswerebelievedtobeSoviet.Palmepersisted,though,untiltheend,providinginspiration
toSovietreformerswhowishedtoreciprocatethedialogue–althoughthisisnotawell-knownfact
amongthegeneralpublic.
Thestandard,dominantAnglo-AmericannarrativeisthattheAmericans“won”theColdWarbyout
toughingtheSoviets.TheydefeatedtheUSSRbyspendingsomuchontheirmilitarytheSovietscouldn't
compete.TheSovieteconomywasdoingsobadlyduetotheinbuiltinefficienciesofcommunismthat,
aftertryingandfailingtosuccessfullycompeteinthearmsrace,Gorbachevwasforcedtothenegotiating
tableandbroughttoanendtheColdWarbythrowinginthetowel.Thebeliefthatthehardlineapproach
wonouttheninformsmanyAmericanpoliticians'approachtoRussia'sresurgencetoday:don'tyield.
InthisrightwingAmericanversionofevents,Europeanpoliticians,politiciansofpeacesuchasSwedish
primeministerOlofPalme,whowantedfar-reachingdisarmamentandwishedtoseereformintheSoviet
Unionwhiletalkingandtradingcivilisedlywiththem,wereatbestnaïveaboutSovietwickedness,at
worsttraitorsunderminingtheunited,hardlineWesternandNATOfront.
ButthatistounderestimatewhatPalmedid.Hefedreformersbehindtheironcurtainideas;andafew
yearsdowntheline,Gorbachevwasinpowerandinapositiontobereceptivetothoseideas.Arguably
Gorbachevwasn'tonlymotivatedbyarealisationoftheSovietinabilitytomatchtheAmerican
rearmamentprogramme,butwaspersuadedintellectuallyandemotionallybyPalmeandothersthata
reformedSovietUnionandCommunistPartymighttakeitsplaceinapan-EuropeanSocialDemocrat
community.Bytheearly1980s,intelligentRussiansrealisedthattheSovietUnionasitwasconstituted
wasafailure:toopoor,toounfree,anditscitizenschafingattheinefficienciesandbrutalities.
SotheydecidedtoreachouttotheWest;elementsoftheWest,particularlyinWestGermany,Norwayand
Sweden,aswehaveseenandwillsee,reachedback.SymbolisedbytheSiberianpipeline,therewere
strongWestGermanbusinessintereststhatsawcommercialopportunitieswithareformedSovietUnion
(andtherestoftheEastbloc,particularlyEastGermany)asawin-winsituation.Thepipelinewouldbe
onlythebeginning.TheSoviets,orRussians,wouldgetWestGermaninvestmentandknowhow.The
SovietswouldprovidetheWestGermanswithmineralresourcesand300millionnewcustomers.The
SovietlinkwouldalsoprovidetheWestGermansameasureofpoliticalindependencefromthe
overbearingmightoftheAmericans.TheSovietUnionwouldreform,socialdemocratically,inastepby
stepway,becoming,well,eventuallymorelikeEuropeanSocialDemocracy.Itmighttakedecades.In
thatsense,theEuropeanSocialDemocrats,andelementsinWestGermanbusiness,wereonthesame
pageasthenewSovietleadership.ButMargaretThatcherandRonaldReagandidnotwanttoplayby
rulessetinBonn,withSweden(andNorway)playingasupportingroletothe1980sGermanOstpolitik..
Theearly1980swasaverychilltimeintheColdWar,andPalme'sandtheGermanSocialDemocrats'
softerapproachtotheSovietsfoundalotofsupportamongtheEuropeanpublics.Intheirquestforpeace
anddialogue,HelmutSchmidtandOlofPalmehadthepeopleofEuropeontheirside.
Theearly1980scouldbeacarefreetimeofkeep-fitgirlsinFame-styleleggingslisteningtotheirSony
WalkmenplayingWham’sClubTropicana.Buttherewasascarcelyconcealedundertoneofanxietytoo,
principallyattributedtotheReaganadministrationwhichwaspushingforconfrontationwiththeUSSR.
Twonucleararmedsuperpowers,facetoface,withtheabilitytounleashdestructionontheworldata
moment’snoticeifeitherwereprovoked.
IntheUK,FrankiegoestoHollywoodreflectedthepublic’sexistentialanxietiesaboutnuclear
destructionintheNumber1charthitTwoTribes,andtherewerelargeanti-nuclearmarchesinLondon–
thebiggestuntiltheanti-Iraqwardemonstrations20yearslater.ThecartoonistRaymondBriggs’sgraphic
novelWheretheWindBlows,aboutanelderlyEnglishcouple’sresponsetoanuclearwar,wasan
influentialanti-wartext.TheCampaignforNuclearDisarmament(CND)wasenjoyingitsheyday:its
membershadincreasedtenfold,to70,000injustthreeyears.NeilKinnock,theLabourleader,spokeat
itsrallies.InGermany,influentialwriterstookpartincitizens’blockadesofAmericanairbases.Gunther
Grass,thebestknownwriterinthecountry,insistedthat“onlyresistancewillwork,”choosingtheword
resistance('Widestand')carefullyforitsevocationoftheanti-Hitlermovement.“Letnoonesaythey
didn'tknow,”wasafavouredsloganoftheGermanpeacemovement,evokingthegoodGermanburghers’
supposedignoranceoftheJewishholocaust.HundredsofthousandsofpeoplemarchedinBonn,Rome,
Brussels,London,andAmsterdam.
Aswehaveseen,NATOwasintheprocessofplacingout572PershingandCruisemissilesinEuropein
amovedesignedtounifythealliancebutwhichhadtheeffectofalienatingtheWestEuropeanpublics.
TheSoviets,undertheirleaderLeonidBrezhnev,hadofferedtounilaterallyhalttheirdeploymentof
similarmidrangedSS20missilesifNATOstoppeditsdeployment,butthiswasrejectedbytheUS
administration,whichhadworkedsohardtocreateaunitedfrontinNATO.However,theWestGermans
tooktheSovietofferseriously.Satellitemonitoringprovidedmeansofverificationthatbothsideswere
complyingwithmissileremoval.But,fortheAmericansandtheBritish,Brezhnev’sofferwasrejected
andpubliclybilledasatacticalploytosplitthealliance.LiketheWestGermangovernment,thewestern
Europeanspublicswerenotsoconvincedbythesearguments.OpinionwaswidespreadthatNATOand
theWestwastheaggressor.
IntheUK,oneofthemostfamoussignsofprotestagainstthenewColdWarwasthewomen’scamp
outsidetheUSairbaseatGreenhamCommon,whichwasthefirstUKbasefortheAmericancruise
missiles.Thewomen’scampbecameaneasytargetforthelikesofsatiricalmagazinePrivateEye.
MiddleagedwomenlefttheirhomestocampformonthsatatimeinruralBerkshireunderumbrellas,
wearingsixlayersofsweaterstoprotestagainstarmsandinfavourofworldpeace.Criticscalledthem
“naïveexhibitionists,militantfeminists”oreven“Communists.”
14milehumanchainacrossaBerkshirevalley,linkingtwoarmsinstallations.Onereportervisitingthe
campdescribedaseaofmudonwhichroughtableswerecoveredwithhalfopenedcansandpackagesof
food.Hedescribedwomentryingtoscrubdishesindirtywater.Blackrubbishbarrelsoverflowingwith
garbage.Sleepingbagswereslungbeneathplasticsheetingstrungfromropes.“Ithardlyseemed
possible,”hewrote,withruefuladmiration,that“thishasbecomeoneofthebestknownpoliticalsymbols
ofEurope”.
OnNewYear’sDay1983,thewomenscaledthefenceswithladdersanddancedandsangononeofthe
silosbuilttohouseoneofthenewcruisemissiles.Theprotestlastedforanhourbeforepolicehauled
themaway.
ItwaseasytomakefunoftheGreenhamCommonprotesters,butNATO’spoliciesofplacingoutnuclear
weaponsweredeeplycontroversialwiththeEuropeanpublics.AccordingtooneHarrispollinmid-
1983,supportfortheAmericanhardlinestanceagainsttheSovietUnionwasdownto15percent.The
mosthostilegroupswerewomen,thewell-educated,and–strangegivensupportamongchurchesfor
disarmament–amongatheists.
ManyGermansthoughttheAmericanstootoughwith43percentofrespondentsinoneFebruary1982poll
sayingtheythoughttheReaganadministrationpolicytowardstheeastblocwastoohardlineandanother
39percentagreeingpartiallywiththisview.AskedinDecember1983whethertheywereconfidentin
theabilityoftheUSAtodealwithworldproblemsresponsibly,34percentsaidyesand53percentsaid
no.
InScandinavia,womenforpeacegroupsappearedafteranantinuclearCopenhagentoParispeacemarch.
ThiswasfollowedbyaStockholmtoMinskmarch,MinskbeingintheSovietUnion.Eventhoughnoneof
theNordiccountrieswereduefordeploymentofcruisemissiles,theScandinaviansmademuchofthe
issue.ByJune1982,petitionscallingforthecreationofaNordicNuclearFreezonehadbeensignedby
2.7millionpeople,whichwasanenormousfigureforaScandinavianpopulationoflessthan17million.
InOctober1981,thereweresimultaneousdemonstrationsin54Finnishcitiesandtownsdemandinga
Nordicnuclearfreezone.Overhundredthousandparticipated.
InNorway,NotoNuclearweaponsgrewtoanorganisationof100,000operatingin300local
communities.Ninetypercentofthecountry’shouseholdsreceivedsuccessfulmailshotsoftheNoto
Nuclearweaponsmagazine.Theorganisationgathered540,000signaturesforaNordicnuclearzone.The
NorwegianLabourParty,outofpower,pickeduptheantinuclearbatonandfailedtowinbackingfora
Nordicnuclearzonebyonevote.Bylate1982,11outof19Norwegiancountrieshadadoptednuclear
freezoneresolutions.
DenmarkwasjustasantinuclearasNorway.NotoNuclearWeaponshad45branchesaroundthecountry.
TogetherwithWomenforPeaceandpacifistgroups,itencouragedthedevelopmentofdisarmament
groupswithintheprofessions.Therewereannualanti-nuclearmarchesin1981to1984;hundredthousand
oneachoccasion.OneDanishpetitionforanuclearfreezonegathered260,000signatures.
AlthoughtheDanishSocialDemocrats,whileinpower,hadsupportedtheNATOdecision,thepopularity
oftheantinuclearcampaignmeantthatthey,whenoutofofficeafterSeptember1982,joinedtwosmaller
socialistpartiesandonecentrepartyinformingthemajorityinparliamentthatdemandedapostponement
ofNATOmissiledeployment.
ThroughouttheNordicregion,publicopinionwasstrikinglyagainstnuclearweapons.InNorwaythe
figureforthenumberofpeoplewhothoughtthenucleararmsracewasthegreatestconcernintheworld
wasaround40percentbetween1981and1982.DanishopinionwastwotooneagainstNATO
deploymentofcruisemissiles.
InSweden,therewereoverthirtypeacegroups.GroupslikePhysiciansAgainstNuclearWeapons
enrolledmorethanhalfthenation’smedicaldoctors.Therewere750,000signaturestoanantinuclear
campaign.Therewereseveraldemonstrationsinvolvingbetween75,000and100,000people.A
campaignbythechurchesledtoastatementsignedbyoveramillionSwedescallingforanendtotesting,
development,productionanddeploymentofnuclearweaponsandsupportforpeacework,peaceresearch
andpeaceeducation.
AllSwedishpoliticalparties,apartfromtheright-of-centreModerates,supportedatleastpartoftheanti-
nuclearmovement’speaceprogrammeandthemovementwasoverjoyedwhenPalmewontheSwedish
generalelectioninSeptember1982.WhiletheSocialDemocratsinNorwayandDenmarksupported
nuclearfreezones,theywereoutofpower,butwiththeelectionofPalmeinSeptember1982,the
Scandinaviancountrieshadasleaderamanwhowasinpowersupportinganuclearfreezone.Indeed,he
announcedonewithinsixtysecondsofhisaccessionspeechattheSwedishparliamentinSeptember
1982.
ThepublicandtheirleadersofwesternEuropeweremoredividedfromeachotherthanatanytimein
recenthistory.Swedenwasneutralofcourse,butmostgovernmentsinwesternEurope,membersof
NATO,loyaltotheUS,soldieredgrimlyonwiththeplacementoftheUSmissiles.Theiractionswerein
oppositiontotheirpublics'feelingsonthesubject.
Thatcherwasamongthemostloyalonthecruisemissileissue.AtaspeechtotheUNaroundthistime,
shecitedpresidentRooseveltthat“Wewhoareborntofreedomandbelieveinitwouldratherdie
standingthanliveonourknees”
Sheaddedthatwhilenuclearwarwasahorrificdangertherehad
beennonuclearbombsdroppedsinceHiroshimaandNagasakiin1945.Over140conventionalwarshad
beenfoughtsincethenwhere10millionhaddied.Herpointwasthatnuclearweaponskeptthepeace.
AndthatpeopleliketheleftwingpoliticiansofEurope–nonames–neverunderstoodthatastrong
defencewasanabsolutepreconditiontoallconstructiverelationswiththeUSSR.
Yet,assaid,theWestGermanSocialDemocrats,theSPD,wasgenerallyhostiletotheReaganapproach.
Palmewastheirremainingallyinpower.PalmefeltalotofsympathyforBrandtandthe
GermanSocialDemocrats’viewoftheworld.
OlofPalme,bornin1927,wasSweden’sprimeministerbetween1969and1976,andagainbetween
1982andhisassassination(stillunsolved)in1986.HehadareputationinScandinaviaandinsomethird
worldcountries,fromBraziltoIndiaandTanzania,asaEuropeanleaderwhowouldlistentothe
problemsofthepooroftheworld.Aconservativeasayoungman,hematuredintoaradicalasherose
throughtheranksoftheSwedishgovernmentinthefiftiesandsixtiesfromhishumblestartasassistantto
theprimeminister,TageErlander.HebecameextremelyunpopularwiththeUnitedStatesgovernmentin
1968overcriticizingAmericanconductinVietnam.ThisledtotheUnitedStateswithdrawingher
ambassadortoSwedenforayear.Ithappenedagainin1972,afterPalmecomparedUSbombingsof
HanoitotheNaziatrocitiesattheexterminationcampatTreblinka.Heradicalizedawholegenerationof
Swedes,andbewitchedthecountrywithhispowerfulrhetoricaboutglobalsocialjustice.
NotreturningtoofficeuntilSeptember1982,hewasamereoppositionpoliticianinthebeginningofthe
ThatcherandReaganyears,butwasnotinactive.Inthetwoyearsbeforehisreturntopower,whilein
opposition,hehadformed,andchaired,an“IndependentCommissiononDisarmamentandSecurity
Issues”.HewasinspiredbyhisclosefriendWillyBrandt’scommissionforNorthSouthissues,which
hadjustcompleteditsownreport.Brandt’scommissionhaddealtwithglobalpoverty,andsuggestedthat
endingthearmsracewasonewaytosavemoneytospendonthepoorinstead.Palmeaimedtopickup
fromwhereBrandthadleftoff.Palme’sgroupwascomprisedofseveralleadingdiplomats,politicians
andexpoliticiansfromaroundtheworld,includingBritain’sDavidOwen,whohadbeenLabourForeign
Secretaryin1978/79.Thegroupmetonceamonthinadifferentcapital,overacourseofyears.Areport
publishedinthesummerof1982detailedthehorrificconsequencesofnuclearwar.Theirgoalwasa
battlefieldnuclearfreezoneincentralEurope:a300kmwidebattlefieldnuclearfreezoneincentral
Europe,whichwouldforcetheremovalofthecruisemissilesthatThatcher,andReagan,wereso
carefullymakingthecasefor.WhenPalme’sreportwaspublished,thewesternpowerswereicily
scepticalwhiletheSovietUnionwelcomeditunreservedly-indeed,wishedtodoublethezoneto600
km.TheCNDinBritainalsowelcomedthereport.BruceKent,aCatholicpriestwhowastheCND’s
chairman,toldasymposiuminGothenburgthatthePalmereporthadn’thadtheinternationalattentionit
deservedandthat“theneutralcountrieshavegreatresponsibilityinaworldwherethesuperpowersare
sohostiletoeachother.”
ItisworthoutliningNATO’sofficiallogicforthecruisemissiles.NATOpolicy-makersarguedthatyou
couldonlyachievepeacethroughstrength.BecauseNATOgroundforcesweresomuchweakerthanthe
WarsawPact’s,agraduallyescalatednuclearstrategyremainedaverypublicoptiononthetableinthe
complexgameofbluffsandthreatsthatconstitutedtheEastWeststand-off.Theultimatebackstopinthe
escalationstrategywasthestrategiclongdistanceintercontinentalmissilesoftheAmericans.Butthey,
LondonandWashingtonargued,wouldnotbeunleashedifAmericawas“decoupled”fromEurope.
Thiswaswherethemiddledistancecruisemissilescamein.
InanessayintheChristianScienceMonitornewspaperataroundthistime,EarlRavenal,aprofessorat
GeorgetownUniversity,
auniversitywhoseacademicstendedtobeclosetopresidential
administrations,explainedthelogicregardingthepositioningofcruisemissiles.
America’sstrategicnucleardeterrencewastheultimatebigstick,whichwouldwipeouttheUSSRatthe
sametimeastheUSSR’sownstrategicdeterrencewouldwipeoutnormalexistenceinAmerica.
Europeanleaders’anxietywasthespectreofdecoupling,anychance,anyexcuseifyoulike,topromote
AmericanisolationfromEurope’saffairsandencouragetheSovietstobelievetheycouldconquerEurope
withouttriggeringanAmericanresponse.Andjustthethreatofsuccessofconventionalattackcouldlead
tothespectreofpoliticaldomination.Sovietpoliticaldominancewasthebigthreat.
TheSovietplacementofSS20s,hardtotargetastheyweremobile,butalsoshortrangeenoughnotto
threatenUnitedStates,couldbeseenasasignaltotheAmericansthatAmericahadnodoginthisfight,
andwasnotthreatened.
WhatwasintheoffingwasthevoluntarysubordinationoftheEuropeanpoliticalordertotheSoviet
Union.WalterLaqueur,afamousUSscholaronSovietaffairs,thoughtEurope’sdeclineinindependence
hadbeenstriking,andworsewouldcomeiftheAmericanspulledoutofEurope.Itcouldbereadasan
attackonthedisarmamentapproachsupportedbythelikesofPalme.
“Theprocessgoesonsometimesquiteopenly,withoutanyattempttoembellishonthetruestateofaffairs,
whileatothertimesitassumestheguiseofan‘independentpolicy’or‘thirdway’.Thepalpablesenseof
disappointmentwithEuropethatoneseesandhearsinmuchAmericanwritingandtalkareallsymptoms
ofthisprocess.Thequestionnowishowfaritislikelytogo.Thegeneralphenomenonofdependenceis
hardlynew.Aslongastherehavebeenstates,thesmallerandweakerhaveadjustedthemselvestothe
wishesofthebigandpowerful.Suchaccommodationhasrangedfromtakingcarenottooffendone’s
largerneighbouronissuesofmajorimportancetototalsatellitisationwithmanystagesinbetween.”
LaqueurtookuptheclientsystemofRomantimesandcomparedittowhatwasfacingEurope.“Rome
wasbynomeansouttohumiliateitsforeignclientprinces.Onthecontrary,theyaretreatedasfriendsand
allies,andsomewereevengrantedRomancitizenship.AslongasRome‘trusted’itsallies,itdidnot
interferewiththeirforeignpolicies.”
Hecontinued:
“ButdecisionsaboutwarandpeaceweremadeonlybytheRomanSenate.Aclientcouldneithermake
warnotconcludepeaceandifhereceivedaninvitationtovisitRomehewouldhavebeenilladvisedto
postponehisarrival.Clientsvolunteeredtheirhelpintimeofwareventhoughnowhereinthetreaties
wasautomaticassistancesomuchasmentioned.”
“ThisformofdependenceisatpresentmoretypicaloftherelationshipbetweenMoscowandeastern
EuropethanthatbetweenMoscowandWesternEurope.Butalreadytherelationbetweenthelatterisno
longeroneofequals.WouldtheEuropeansdareprescribetotheSovietsastheSovietsdotothemwhat
weaponstheymayormaynotdeployorthreatenedtheUSSRwithreprisalsifMoscowfailedtocomply
withEuropeandemands?Withthechangeinthebalanceofpowerrealandperceivedandtheinternal
weaknessanddivisionofeasternEurope,theeastEuropeanmode;orsomethinglikethatmaywellbethe
modelofthefuture.
“Suchanewrelationship,ahigherstageofdétentemoresubtlethanwhatalreadyexistsbetweenthe
USSRandFinland,wouldamounttoundeclaredneutralism.TheWestEuropeancountrieswouldnotbe
askedtoleaveNATO,providedtheyacceptedthefactthatSovietmilitarypredominancehadcometostay
andmadenoattempttorestorethebalance.EuropewouldalsohavetoaccepttheSovietinterpretationof
defenceasbinding,whichwouldmean,amongotherthings,thateventsinAsia,AfricaandtheMiddle
EastcouldnotbepermittedtoaffectthestateofaffairsinEurope.
“Inaddition,therewouldoccuranintensificationoftraderelationswiththeSovietUnion,meaningmore
loans,creditsandtransferoftechnology.Finallynowesternoppositionwouldbeforthcomingtomajor
Sovietforeignpolicyinitiatives,andtherewouldbenoadversecommentconcerningSovietaffairs–in
otherswords,self-censorship.AsfortheUSSR,itwouldnotdirectlyinterferewiththeinternalaffairsof
westernEuropeexceptiftherewereadangerofpoliticalpartiesandleaderscomingtopowerwhomight
givealessthanwholeheartedsupporttothenewrelationship.InsuchcircumstancestheUSSRwouldnot
onlyhavetherightbutthedutytoexertheavypoliticalpressure.”
Laqueurcontinuedbysayingthesearrangementsarenotjustapolicytheywerehappeningalready……
4 .Th ed an gerso f‘Swed en izatio n ’
Onegetsthefeeling,fromreadingmaterialfromtheBritisharchives,thatBritishdiplomats–more
nuancedthantheirboss,MrsThatcher-felttheywerefightingapoliticalwartothedeathwiththe
SovietsoverthesoulofEurope–atthesametimekeepingtheAmericanscalm,onboard,andneithertoo
aggressivesotoscaretheEuropeansawaynorloseinterest,leadingtoAmericaeitherwithdrawingfrom
Europe,ortothebeliefamongtheSovietsthattheAmericanswouldwithdrawtheirnuclearumbrellaand
thusleavingEuropeevenmoreexposedtoSoviet-Americanconflict.(Sincesuchabeliefwouldmake
themmoreaggressive.)WestEuropeangovernmentshadtodemonstratetheircommitmenttoAmerica’s
commitmentbyspendingmoreontheirdefence.Thepeacemovementswereathornintheside.The
well-meaningactivists,feminists,churchpeopleandleftwingpoliticiansofsmallisolatedneutral
countrieslikePalmedidn’tknowthewholestory.
UKForeignSecretaryLordCarrington–whometPalmeinMarch1981Britisharchivepapersshow,and
hadnomeetingofmindswithhim–madeaspeechinfavourofpeace.ItwastheWinstonChurchill
memorialspeech,thedatewasOctober25,1981,andtheplaceLuxembourgCity.Hisaudienceconsisted
ofEuropeanofficials.CarringtonhadbeenanactingmajorintheBritishArmyinNorth-WestEuropein
1944.
Carrington,bornin1919,20attheoutbreakofthewar,beganbysaying:“Manyintheaudiencelikeme
havevividmemoriesofthepitilesssufferingofconflictandoccupation.
“Thosememoriesmakeusallthemoregladthatourchildrenhavebeensparedsimilarexperiences;
thosememoriesalsolayuponusadoubleobligationtodeviseeffectivepoliciestomaintainpeaceandto
makesurethatthosepoliciesareunderstoodbyallgenerationsandallsectionsofsociety.”
HesaidthatthelessonoftheimmediatepostwarperiodwasthattheSovietUnionwouldusethethreatof
militaryactiontotryandachievepoliticalgoals.In1948,byclosingoffallthecity’sexits,theyhadtried
tointimidatethewesternpowersintoleavingWestBerlin.ButtheWesthadstoodfirm.TheWesthadto
bestrong,united,anddetermined.Hethensketchedthemilitarysituation:theUSSRwasnotonlysuperior
intanknumbers,butalsoinshortaswellaslongrangenuclearforces.With13percentofGDPspenton
armamentsthiscouldnotpossiblybedefensive.
AndtheUSSRhadshoweditcoulduseforce,inHungary1956,Czechoslovakia1968andAfghanistan
1979.Carringtontoldhisaudiencetheyshouldlookatthelongerperspective.Forthousandsofyears,
Europeanshadbeenatwar;whywouldthedangersbeanydifferenttoday?Thepriceoffreedomwas
unceasingvigilance.HesaidpeopleinthepeacemovementmisunderstoodNATO’spositioningof
missiles.Theywerenevermeanttobeused.Theyweretheretopreventwaragainstpossibleplansbythe
mostpowerfulstateontheEurasianlandmass,i.e.theSovietUnion.Deterrencewasaimedatthe
calculationthatanyonewhomightconsideranattackwouldreconsiderifthecostwastoohigh.The
peacemovementdidnotunderstandthefactaboutdeterrencethatitwasabout“blockingoffinadvance”
theaggressivemovesintheopponent’sminds.TheSovietscouldbeleftindoubttheycouldnotgetaway
withintimidatingthewest;atworstnuclearweaponswouldraindownovertheirheads.
“NATOthenistheretodeterapossibleadversaryfromstartingawarbymakingsuretheriskwillalways
betoohigh.TheEastWestpeacehasheldfor36yearsnow,apeacebetweenpoliticalsystemsthatare
sharplyopposed.Thatisastrikingachievement.Noonecanprovethatdeterrenceplayedacrucialpart,
butcommonsensesuggeststhatitmusthavedoneanditwouldbelunacytosuggestithadnot.”
Butthatwasatrisk.Hethentalkedabouttheenormousimbalanceoftheatrenuclearforces,missilesthat
couldreachLondonandParisbutcouldn’tcrosstheAtlanticandhitAmerica.TheRussianshadbuilt
manyoftheminthelastfewyearsandthathadupsetthebalanceofpower.Carringtonsaid:
“IfnothingisdoneaboutthisenormousimbalancetheSovietUnionmightreckonitcouldaffordto
threatennuclearattackonwesternEurope,withoutriskingescalationagainstSovietterritory.TheSoviet
calculationcouldbethattheWest’sonlydefenceagainstSovietlongrangetheatrenuclearweapons
wouldbetheintercontinentalmissilesintheUnitedStates.AndthatAmericamightnotusetheseagainst
EuropebecauseoftheprospectofretaliationagainsttheUnitedStatesitself.”
Thatwasthenubofthewholething.America’sstrategicnuclearforcewasthebackstopofEurope’s
security.(FrenchandBritishnuclearforceswerenotnumerousenough.)ButifEuropeanscarriedonas
theydid,theAmericansmightwithdrawthenuclearumbrellaandwesternEuropewouldbevulnerableto
enormousSovietpoliticalpressure.CarringtontoldhisEuropeanaudiencethatheknewtheAmericans
wouldn’tdothat(ordidhesecretlywonder?...),buttheimportantaspectofdeterrencewaswhatthe
RussiansthoughttheAmericanswoulddo.IftheAmericanswerebelievedtohavelostinterestinEurope
theymightattack.ItwasthereforeimportanttoprojectNATOsolidarity,credibilityandunity–andkeep
theAmericansonboard.
AfewmonthslaterGeoffPattie,aBritishdefenceministerofstate(belowDefenceSecretary),madea
speechatWehrkunde,anannualgatheringheldinMunichforNATOdefenceandforeignpolicy
intellectualsandpolicymakers.
Hepaintedadepressingpictureofthepolls:Between60and65%ofFrench,ItalianandBritishpublics
wantedtodo“everythingpossibletostayoutofthedisputesbetweentheUSAandUSSRevenifit
involvedtheircountry’simportantinterests.”ViewsweredifferentinEuropeandAmerica.European
commentatorswhoqueriedthecohesionofthealliancecitedtheevidenceofanoverbearingandperhaps
naïveUSadministrationdeterminedtoimposeitsownvisiononthebestwayforwardforEurope.Pattie
toldhisaudienceatWehrkunde:TherewerewidespreadEuropeanpublicfears,perpetuatedbythepeace
movement,thattheUSaimedtofight,andwin,anuclearwarinEurope.Thiswascompletelyuntrue.But
thatwasbecausethepublicdidnotunderstandthetheoryofdeterrence.Theysawtherearmamentand
misinterpreteditasapreparationforwar.ButitwasreallyonlyawaytotietheUSintoEurope’s
defence.
Bycontrast,thereweresomeintheUnitedStateswhobelievedthattheEuropeanmembersofthealliance
had“gonesoft”andwerenolongerwillingtoaccepttherisksandburdensinvolvedinthecollective
commitmenttomutualdefence.ItwasAmericathatwasputtingitselfonthelineforEurope,an
extraordinarycommitmentyetoneforwhichitwascastigatedbecauseofthemisunderstandingastowhat
deterrencewasactuallyabout.
PattieblamedtheSovietpropagandamachinefordrivingwedgesbetweenthecountriesofthealliance.
Theeastblochadcensorship;thewesthadafreemediabutthepluralisticnatureofwesterndemocracies
wasbothastrengthandweaknesswhenconfrontedbythe“totalitariansocialistEast.“Sakharov,more
thanmost,knewthetechniquesofdistortionandpropagandapractisedbytheSovietleadership,”Pattie
said.“ThegovernmentsoftheallianceshouldremainconstantlymindfulofthehugeresourcestheSoviets
arepreparedtodevotetosecuringextensivecoverageoftheirviewsinthefreemediaintheWest.”
AmericansuspicionsthattheEuropeansweregoingbehindtheirbacksandtalkingtothe“Sovietenemy”
andbeing“brainwashed”bythemwererife.Wastheresomesubstancetoit?TheAmericanshadvery
goodcontactsinWesternintelligenceagencies,includingSwedishintelligence,whobriefedthe
Americansabout“appeasementtendencies”amongEuropeanleaders,andwhatSwedishintelligence
reportedabouttheactivitiesoftheirowngovernmentwasworrying.In2013,OlofFrånstedt,theretired
headofcounterespionageatSäpo,theSwedishsecuritypolice,inthesixtiesandseventies,revealedin
hismemoirsthattheSocialDemocratleadershiphadhadtopsecretclosecontactswiththeSoviets.That,
especiallytoaparanoidcounterespionagechief–whonodoubtpassedallinformationwestwards,to
MI6andtheCIA,withwhomSwedishintelligencelinkswereclose–musthavebeenevidenceofthe
kindofrespectfuladaptationtotheEasternsuperpowerthattheAmericanhistorianLaqueurwarned
against.
OntheSwedishside,theinternationalsecretaryoftheSocialDemocrats,AndersThunborg,andparty
secretaryStenAndersson,regularlymettherankingKGBchiefinStockholm,MikhailStreltsov,fresh
fromassignmentinFinlandwheretheRussians,claimedFrånstedt,wereusedtopokingtheirfingerinto
domesticpolitics.TheymetattherestaurantMetropolinStockholm,neartheSocialDemocratparty
headquartersinSveavägen,andtheytookplaceaboutonceamonth.
StreltsovspokefluentSwedish.ThunborgregularlywroteupintelligencereportsforSwedishintelligence
chiefs,butfulldisclosurehardlyseemstohaveexoneratedhimintheeyesoftheSwedishspies
monitoringSocialDemocrat-Sovietrelations.Therewasmuchdiscussionofpolitics,where,asFrånstedt
writes,theRussiansprobedtheSwedesfortheirdisarmamentviews,theirviewsonVietnam,onWest
Germany’sWillyBrandt,withwhomtheSwedishSocialDemocratswereveryclose.TheRussianssaid
theywereveryunhappywiththeFinnishSocialDemocrats,someofwhomstillhadnegativeviewsofthe
Russians.Withasenseofdisgust,FrånstedtsaystheSwedestriedtoplacatetheirhosts.Thunborgsaying
theFinnshadtoneddownthecriticismcomingoutoftheSocialistInternationalandStenAndersson
insistingthattheFinnshadbeenmisunderstood.“Ofcoursetheywantedgoodrelationswiththe
Soviets”…
ThunborgandAnderssonweregivenanexpenses-paidtriptotheUSSR,butwereparanoidaboutthe
newsleakingtothemedia,sincetheSocialistInternationalmembers,SocialDemocratsall,hadagreed
amongthemselvesnottohaveanyofficialcontactswitheastblocCommuniststates.
TheRussianspromisednottotelltheirmedia,andkepttheirpromise.Theintrapartycontactwasfurther
obscuredbythetriptakingplaceundertheresponsibilityoftheSovietAcademyofSciences,which
officiallypaidforeverything.ThetwoSwedishseniorpartySocialDemocratsgottoseetheSoviet
CommunistPartysecretaryBorisPonomariev.Forsimilarreasonsofconfidentiality,returnvisitsbythe
SovietsweretohappenundertheaegisoftheSwedishWorkers’EducationAssociationthough,as
Thunborgsaid.“Ofcourse,youcanmeetusSocialDemocratswhileyou’reinSweden.”Insubsequent
meetings,StreltsevtriedtoputpressureontheSwedesbycomplainingabouttheSwedishyouth
organisation’santi-Sovietremarksinapamphlet.StenAnderssontoldStreltsovthat,contrarytowhatthe
Russiansmaythink,theSocialDemocratpartyleadershipwasmuchmoreleftwingthanitsvoters.Since
ithadtowinmillionsofvoterswhomightfindsocialismobjectionable,thepartyhadtotacktothe
middletowinelections.
AsSweden'scounterespionagechiefwithlinkstothewest,Frånstedt’stakeonthemeetingsisas
importantasthefactsofthemeetingitself.Attheend,heisverycriticalofthefactthat,inhisview,the
RussianswerealwaysplayingontheSwedishhalfoftheplayingfield.Ostensiblymeetingsbetween
officialsoftwostatesthatwereequal,muchofthetalkconcernedthingsthattheSwedeshaddoneto
upsettheRussians–accordingtoFrånstedt,atleast.TheRussianswereconstantlyurgingtheSocial
DemocratstogointocoalitionwiththeSwedishCommunists,whichtheyatthesametimeinsistedwas
independentofMoscow.
ButFrånstedtwasangryandclaimedthattheSocialDemocraticpoliticiansneveroncementionedSoviet
oppressionoftheBalticstates.TherewasonlyoneoccasionwhenRaoulWallénbergwasmentioned.
WallénbergwastheSwedishdiplomatturnedhumanitarianherowhohadsaved100,000JewsinNazi
occupiedBudapestbygivingthemtemporarySwedishpassportsin1944-45,butwasnabbedbythe
RussianswhentheyliberatedthecityinFebruary1945.HespentsometimeintheLubyanka,onsuspicion
ofbeingaspy,andwasexecutedin1947,buttherewererumours,evenaslateastheseventiesand
eighties,thatWallénbergwasstillalive,rottingawayinsomeSiberianprisoncamp.Streltsovhimself
saidtheSwedishgovernmentspoiledtheatmospherebyraisingthecaseonastatevisittoMoscow.Also
presentatthelatermeetingswasThunborg’ssuccessorasinternationalsecretary,PierreSchori.Schori
laterbecamePalme’sforeignpolicyadvisorinhissecondperiodinoffice,1982to1986.Farfrom
confrontingtheSoviets,Swedishministersatthehighestlevelseemed–totheSwedishspycommunityas
representedbyFrånstedt-tobesecretlyappeasingtheSoviets.Swedenwasasourceofappeasement.
Inthesummerof1981,Britain’sdiplomaticpostsinEuropewerecommissionedtowritecontributions
fromtheirhostcountriestoareportonneutralistopinioninEurope.TheSwedishonewasparticularly
interesting.TheBritishdiplomatarguedthatgullibleSwedishopinionwaseasilymanipulatedinananti
NATOdirectionandthatOlofPalme,stilloppositionleader,playedanimportantroleinthis
Theambassadorwasaskedtocommentonthecommonreportdraftandsaidthat,fromhisStockholm
perspective,thereportwascomplacentinitsconclusionsaboutthepotentialdurationandimportanceof
the“peacemovement”.AndalsothereportshouldnotoverlooktherelevanceofnonNATOopinionin
westernEurope.
DonaldMurray,ambassador,thoughtthereportaskedthewrongbasicquestion.“Innaturethoughnotyet
instrengththepeacemovementoftheearlyeightiesseemedtorecalltheCNDofthe1950s,theVietnam
traumaofthesixties,ortheenvironmentalistanti-nuclearenergymovementofthe1970s.”
Hecontinued:alltheseissuesdominatedtheirdecades,allofthemwereinternational,andallofthem
influencedtheactionsofgovernments(ifnotinBritainthenelsewhere)
“Atpresenttheenvironmentalist/anti-nuclearenergycausehasburneditselfout,”hewrote,“atleastin
Sweden,andthereisanemotionalvacuumwaitingforanewcause.”“Thiscouldbeit.Thecategories
nowinvolved–youngpeople,women’sorganisations,churches–areexactlythoseinwhichtheearlier
movementsgatheredstrength.
“Whatwearenowconcernedwithisviewsofpeoplewhoseemotions,ratherthantheirreasoning,has
beenstirredaboutthebalanceofterror.InSwedenthewayhasbeenpreparedbytheconnectiondrawnin
thepublicmindbetweennuclearpowerstationsandnuclearwar.”
Murrayworriedaboutthe“democracyofthestreet”,andsaidthatheCopenhagentoParispeacemarch
organisedbyScandinavianwomen’sorganisationshadexertedapowerfulpull.EighthundredSwedes
tookpartinthemarchtoTrondelaginNorwaywhiletherewasaminimarchontheislandofGotlandthat
week.Behindthesepeacemarches,theambassadorwrote,werecommitteesthatoperatedasfront
organisationsforSovieteffortsinthepacifistandanti-militaristfields.However,headded,the
importanceforSwedenwasnotjustthatSovietpropagandaandfrontorganisationswerecultivatingthis
fertileground.“Rather,itwasfertilegroundanyway.”
HethenthoughtSwedishopinioncouldaffectopinioninothercountries,throughtheSocialist
InternationalortheregularNordiclinks.“IdonotthinkweshouldignoretheeffectoftheSwedish
exampleontrendsofthoughtamongindividualsinNATOcountries.Hereisacountrywhich,inpopular
opinion,hasledthewayonsocialthinkingandcouldthereforeofferforpacifistthoughtanattractive
alternativemodelforsurvivalbetweenthenuclearsuperpowers,acombinationofneutralityandnuclear
renunciation.”
“Afavouriteemotiveargumentamongunilateralists(backedbyfiguresfromtheBrandtcommission)is
howmuchbetteritwouldbeifthemoneywerespentonaid,andafavouriteSwedishdelusionisthatthe
restoftheworldisjustwaitingforaSwedishlead.OlofPalme’smandatefromtheSocialist
Internationalto‘seeknewapproaches’onnucleardisarmamenthasencouragedundiscerningsupportfor
nuclearfreezones.HoweverpacifismisnotthesoleperquisiteoftheSocialDemocrats:asisthecase
elsewhereinwesternEuropeittranscendspartyboundariestosomeextent.FollowingaNordicSocial
Democraticlead,theSwedishriksdaglastmonthapprovedbyanoverwhelmingmajorityaresolution
callingonthegovernmenttoinvestigatewithotherNordicgovernmentsaNordicnuclearfreezoneafirst
stepinaEuropeannuclearfreezone.”
TheSocialDemocratshadsetupapeaceforumunderAlvaMyrdal,aSwedishpublicintellectualand
feminist,notoriousforherbeliefinsocialengineering,“whoofcourseisanardentdisarmer”.
MeanwhiletheSocialDemocratwomen’sorganisationineffectcalledforunilateraldisarmamentinthe
longterm,dismantlingoftheSwedisharmsindustryandanuclearfreeEurope.“Palmeseemstobedoing
hisbesttokeepcontroloveralltheseconcerns.Intworecentspeeches,onetowomen,heexpoundedon
thehorrifyingnatureofnuclearwar,describingEurope,notforthefirsttime,astheready-madetheatre
fornuclearwar.Thethreatwouldnotbeavertedbypoliticiansortechnicians,Palmesaid,theonlyway
tosolveitwastobuilduppublicopiniononthebroadestpossiblebasisinsupportofanuclearfree
Europe,andeverysingleindividualeffortwasheremeaningful.”Murrayaddedthat“thiswasstrong
stuff”.AndtheBritishambassadorpredictedthatPalme,wheninpower,mightfindithardtofindthe
centregroundagain.
Thesewerepropheticwords.AssoonasPalmecametopowerthenextyear,1982,hemadeareference
toanuclearfreezonewithin60secondsofstartinghiselectionspeech.Palmeinsisted,andIbelievehe
wasabsolutelycorrect,thathewasindependentofMoscow.ButtherewasperhapsasenseinLondon,
ParisandWashingtonthat,evenifPalmewasn’tinMoscow’spocket(consideringthesuspiciouscovert
meetingsbetweentheSwedishSocialDemocratleaderssuchasThunborgandSoviets),they,“thebig
powers”,knewwhattheyweredoing.Andthatsmallcountriesweremorelikelytobemanipulatedby
Moscow.
RichardPerle,AssistantSecretaryforDefense,andanotedhawk,saidtotheSwedishnationalnews
agencyTTshortlyafterPalme'saccessionthatitwas“unsuitablethatprimeministerPalme,whoheadsa
nuclearweaponsfreecountry,tosuggestnuclearfreezonesinothercountries.”Heoughttorealisethathe
“hasn’ttheslightestinfluenceontheUSSRandothereastblocstates…Removingnuclearweaponsfrom
westernEuropewouldbeacatastropheforNATO.”PerleattackedPalme’scommissionforcommon
security.“ItisanindirectattackonthepolicyofdeterrencethathaspreservedthepeaceinEuropesince
worldwarII.”
BrittMarieNilsson,aSwedishjournalisttodayinhersixties,haswrittenaninterestingmemoirabout
Swedeninatimeofneutrality,inthe1980s.SheknewPalmewell;atthesametimeshewasawarehow
unpopularPalmewasinNATO.ShewasinvitedtoaNATOseminarinBrusselsin1984whereshe
foundrepresentativesoftheAlliancewhogavelecturestothevisitingSwedishjournalistsaboutthe
geopoliticalsituationinEuropeextremelycuriousaboutwhatPalmewasupto.Thejournalistswere
showedslideshowswherealargeredflame–theWarsawpact-fromtheEastcompletelyswalloweda
small,flickeringblueflameintheWest–NATO.
TheNATOpeoplewonderediftheSwedishjournalistsknewanythingaboutGeorgyArbatov,theSoviet
memberofPalme’speacecommission.TheimplicationwasthatArbatovwasperhapsaKGBagent?
TheythoughttheothermembersofPalme’scommission,includingformersecretaryofStateCyrusVance
andformerBritishforeignsecretaryandnowSDPleaderDavidOwen,sadlyconfused.Aswasthe
Europeanpeacemovement.Allthese“peacemarches”andhumanchainswerewellmeaningbutsadly
unawarevictimsoftheUSSR’spropagandatoundermineNATO.
Brussels,atNATO,HenryKissinger,Palme’stransatlantic“conversationpartner”,atleastaccordingto
hisSwedishbiographers,desperatetoseeachinkoflightinPalme’sAmericanrelations,pouredbileall
overthe“creepingpacifismandneutralism”thatthreatenedtoswallowEurope.Anacademicwhoseline
ofthinkingwasclosetotheWhiteHousecalledWilliamTaylor,researchheadattheGeorgetown
Institute,wasanothercriticofSwedenataroundthistime.“WesternEuropeisheadingintoakindof
armedneutrality,ageneral‘Swedenization’”.Headdedthat“theUSSRwillachievewhatitwantsin
westernEuropewithoutawar.”
5.Wh isk eyo n th eRo ck s
LifeunderPalme'srule,1982to1986,waspunctuatedbyanumberofsetpiecesubmarinehuntsagainst
apersistentandunknownintruderwhowasneveridentified.Thesehuntsbewitchedalargenumberof
Swedes(andofferedabreakfromsocialdemocracy'severyday.)Theywereenormousmediaeventsthat
channelledpeople’sfearsfromlivinginacountrygeostrategicallyvulnerableattheheightoftheSecond
ColdWar.Formostofus,thefollowingeventswereplayedoutonTV,everyfewmonthsorso.There
weremediumdistanceshotsofhoveringhelicoptersoversomeattractivepartoftheSwedishshoreline,
followedbydailynavypressconferences.EveryonethoughtthesubmarineswereSoviet.
Thepressconferenceswithsternnavyofficersgivingdailysituationreportswereintriguing.
Ifyoulivedbywater-andmanySwedesdo-thesubmarineintrusionscouldtakeonakindofalmost
phantasmagoricalquality.ImaginationswerestimulatedbywhattheysawonTVandthedramatic
speculationsinthetabloidpressaboutthesemysteriousattackers,andpeoplestartedseeingthings.That
rustleofwind,thatcrackoftwigs,couldnotcomefromaninnocentsource!Thatsilhouetteonthewater-
wasitasubmarineorarock?EspeciallyintheNordictwilight,thelappingofwavescouldcreatethe
illusionofmovementaroundsomethingthatwasstationary.Holidaysinthelakesideandseasidecottages
somanySwedesowntookonanewfrisson.EverySwedebecameanamateursubmarinespotter.
Themilitarybecameobsessed.Alotofpeoplehadexperienceofrealsubmarinehunts,too.Anolder
cousin,doinghismilitaryserviceontheeastcoast,camebackwithstoriesofhowaneighbouringunithad
foundbadgeswithCyrillicletteringandemptySovietsardinetinwhathadobviouslybeenatemporary
encampmentofSovietfrogmen.
TosomeWesterners,theremighthavebeenasenseofschadenfreudeabouttheintrusions.Palme,who
spentthesixtiesandseventiesasEurope’sconscienceonAfricanandLatinAmericanaffairs,lecturing
Westernnationsabouttheirmoralweaknessesfromapositionofsafety,nowgotatasteofColdWar
reality.
Itallstartedwithasubmarinethatwasforreal.Anditwas,admittedly,aSovietone.Onthemorningof
the28October1981thechiefofSouthernSweden’smainnavalbasereceivedareportthataforeign
submarinehadrunagroundattheentrancetoGåsefjärdenbay,15kmsoutheastofthetownofKarlskrona,
insideSwedishterritorialwatersandalsoinsideamilitaryprotectedarea.
Thesubmarinethathadrunagroundonareefinthemiddleofthebaywasa76metre,4,000tonneSoviet
Whiskeyclassdieselsubmarine,anold,ratherprimitivedesign.Wastheintrusiondeliberateornot?Ifit
wasdeliberate,itcouldbearguedthatitgavelietoallSovietclaimsaboutpeacefulintentionsinEurope.
ItwouldshowthatSweden(andothers)waswrongtobeextendingolivebranchestotheSovietUnion.
WastheUSSR,perhaps,sizingSwedenupforaninvasion?Wasthesubmarineonapre-invasionmission
tomapoutSwedishwaters?Inthatsupposition,hownaïveweren'ttheappeasers–thepeacemovements,
theEuropeanpublics,westernpoliticianslikeOlofPalme.(Whowasayearawayfromcomingtopower
butwas,asoppositionleader,veryactiveintheinternationalpeacemovements.)
Variousjournalistsandacademicshaverevisitedthecourseofeventsagainandagaintotryanddetermine
theSoviets’motives.
Thefactsbeyonddisputearethese.Thesubmarinewasreportedat9.54amon28OctoberbyaSwedish
fisherman;by11am,thechiefofstaffoftheKarlskronanavalbasesteppedonboardthesubmarine.The
crewtoldhimtheyhadrunagroundthepreviouseveningasaresultofmisnavigation.Surfacemarkings
hadbeenpaintedover,butthesubmarine’snumberwastheU137.Thecaptaindemandedthattheybe
salvagedbySovietvessels.By11.40,thecommanderinchiefLennartLjunghadbeeninformed,andgave
ordersthatthesubmarinewasnottobeallowedtoleaveSwedishterritory.
Shortlyafterwards,Ljungdecidedthesubmarinewasnotgoingtobeallowedtobesalvagedbythe
Soviets,butbytheirownside.ThegovernmentwasinformedandintheafternoontheSovietambassador
calledtotheforeignminister,whohandedoveraprotestsaying“Swedenregardsseriouslythisgross
violation”ofSwedishregulations.Manyinthefiercelyanti-SovietSwedishnavy–andthusatoddswith
thelessanti-SovietPalme-claimeditwasakindof“Itoldyouso”moment.Therehadbeenanincrease
inthenumberofviolationsbysubmarinessincetheyearbefore,reflectinganewcoldwarpolitical
climate.Andhere,finally,wastheproofthattheywereSoviet.
TheKarlskronaarchipelagoinsouthernSwedenconsistsofhundredsofsmall,flat,forestedandinhabited
aswellasuninhabitedislandsandshallowbays.Swedishcoastalrangers,thecountry’seliteunit,tookup
positionontheneighbouringislands.SwedishnavalvesselsturneduptoguardoverthestrandedSoviet
submarine.
Overthenextfewdays,theworld’spressflockedtoKarlskrona.Sovietembassyofficialscamedown
fromStockholm.Thecaptainandhisdeputyweretakenoffthesubandquestioned.CaptainAnatoly
Gushchinclaimedthesubmarinehadsurfacedtwohoursbeforerunningagroundwhich,hesaid,took
place19.57Swedishtimeon27October.Thereweremediareportsthatthesubmarinecrewbelieved
theywereinopenwatersabout130kmsouthofthesmallDanishislandChristiansöabout25kmnortheast
ofthelargerDanishBalticislandofBornholm.Thesubmarinehadbeenonatrainingexercisewithnew
submarinerecruitsand,thelastcoupleofdays,beenEastofBornholm.TheSovietcaptainclaimedthat
thegyrocompassandtheechosounderwerealloutoforder.Themagneticcompasshadnotbeen
consulted.Theradionavigationdevicehadgivenoffthewrongresults.
TheSwedishauthoritiescameonboardthesubmarineandfoundmostunitstobeworking.The
gyrocompasshadbeendismountedforthesecondvisit,butonthefirst,ithadworkedfine.Theonly
problemwiththeDeccanavigatorwasthatitwasanoldermodelwhichlackedautomaticlane
identification.Tosetthereceivercorrectly,oneneededtoknowone’sownlocation,whichcouldbedone
bydeadreckoningorbyusingtheradionavigationdevice.Otherthanthatitwasworking.Theradio
navigationdevicewassaidtobefaultybecausethesubmarinehadcollidedwithasurfaceshipwhile
underwater.TheSwedishinspectorsfoundminordamagetotheaerial,andtheunitworkedandwas
tunedintoSwedishradiobeaconfrequencieswhencommanderKarlAnderssoncheckeditonhissecond
visittothesub.Theechosoundercouldn’tbetestedbecausethesubmarinehadrunaground,butcorrect
figureshadbeenenteredintheship’sjournalearlier.
TheSwedesinterrogatedthecaptainonshore.Afterthetalks,andafternegotiationsbetweenStockholm
andMoscow,thesubmarinewastowedoffthereefbySwedishtugs,andescortedoutofSwedish
territorialwatersonat0700on6November1981,aftertendaysonthereef.Attheterritorialline,
Sovietshipswerewaiting.TheSwedeshaddemanded,andtheSovietsagreedto,Moscowpayingforthe
salvageoperation.
Theapparentlytransparentsubmarinecrewliesaboutthenon-functioningnavigationequipmentwould
seemtohavesettledit.Obviouslyitwasadeliberateintrusion,notanaccident.(Themotiveremaineda
subjectforspeculation,butitwouldbefairtosaythattheUSSR’scredibilitywiththeSwedishand
NATOmilitaryplanners,aswellasBritishandAmericandiplomatswasverylow.)
Butscepticspointedoutsomethingsthatdidn’tmakesense.TheywonderedwhytheSovietswouldhave
usedtheWhiskeyforacovertoperationinforeignwaters.TheWhiskeywasanolddesign,scarcelytobe
recommendedforcovertoperations.Foronething,itwasextremelynoisy.TheWhiskeywasbasedona
GermanU-boatdesignfromWW2,whichwasbeingphasedoutalreadythen.TheWhiskey,atthisstage
ofthedesign’slife,wasmostoftenusedtotrainnewcrews.TheBalticwastheSovietUnion’speaceful
traininggrounds.AlcoholismandincompetencewerefeaturesoftheSovietnavy.Hadthetraineesgone
onacollectivedrinkingbender,takenawrongturningfrominternationalwatersandtriedtocoverupthis
disastrousmistakebysayingtheirequipmentwasfaulty?
ButweretheSovietstrulyguilty?HereweretheargumentsforSoviet“innocence”,thatitwascockup
ratherthanconspiracythatmeanttheU137endedupinSwedishwaters.TheU137hadbehavedlike
anythingbutasubonanillicitoperation.Localislanders,mostlyfishermen,haddiscussedamong
themselvesintheweeksaftertheeventandwerenotevercontactedbyoutsiders,letalonethenavy
authorities,untilquizzedbyanenterprisingjournalist,IngemarMyhrberg,whoseviewsdissentedfrom
themainstream.Hefoundthatthefishermenwereconvincedthattheintrusionwasaccidental.
Myhrbergrereadtheofficialnavyreportonthegroundingcloselyandwasalertedtotheseviewswhen
hesawthatoneoftheoneofthelocals,whowasn’tafishermanbutareporterforalocalnewspaper,had
calledthenightofthegroundingwithnewsaboutthesoundoflouddieselenginesbeforethegrounding.
Buthisstatementwasn’tfollowedup.Therewasheavymistandhewasworriedtherehadbeenan
accident.HecheckedwithaKarlskronanavydutyofficerwhosaidtherewerenoscheduledoperations
intheareabutthatthesoundprobablycamefromamilitaryhelicopter.
ThereporterinquestionferventlydeniedtoMyhrbergithadbeenahelicopter.Hewasextremely
experiencedinmilitarymattersandsworeitwasthesoundofaseavessel.However,hedidnotcomplain
publiclywhenhiswitnesstestimonywasdismissedbecausehisjob,asalocalreporter,dependedon
goodrelationswiththenavy.Butinprivatehewasannoyednoonetookhimseriously.
Myhrbergcarriedout“operationdoorknocking”,andvisitedseveralotherlocalsinthearchipelagonear
wherethesubhadrunaground.Onesaid“Iheardamightythunderthatevening,(whentheU137wentin).
Itcamefromsoutheast–nearKarlskrona–andcarriedonwestwardsuntilstoppedinasoutheasterly
positionwhereitwentaground,Andthenitthunderedallnight,onandoff,asittriedtomotoroffthe
reef.”AnotherofMyhrberg’sintervieweessaid:“AtfirstIthoughtitwasafishingtrawlerthatyou
sometimeshearinstillweather,butthiswasaverydifferentsound.”Fourotherwitnessescouldconfirm
thesubmarineenteredthenarrowchanneltotheGåsefjärdenbaywiththeenginesatfullpower,One
Stockholmerwithacottageinthearea,callinghiswifefromatelephonebox,saidthe“loudnoisecame
fromtheopenseainasoutherlydirection”.Thesoundcontinuedashewalkedbacktothecottageand
increasedinvolumeafterabouteightpmontheeveningbeforethesubmarinewasdiscovered.It
thunderedallnightsomuchthatthecottageshook.
Well,scepticssay,obviouslythesubmarineswitchedonitsenginestogetoffthereef.However,there
werenumerouswitnessesfromtheislandofSturkö,nearesttheincident,abletoconfirmthattheloud
rumbleofmotorsbeganbeforetheyhadsatdownforthatevening’seditionoftheeveningnews,at19.30.
Thesubmarineranagroundat20.00.Inotherwords,itwastravellingonitsnoisydieselengines,rather
thanitsquietelectricengines,whenenteringSwedishterritorialwaters.Hardlytheactionsofaspysub.
JusthownoisytheWhiskey’sdieselenginesarecanbesurmisedfromthecommanderofthesalvage
operationescortedtheU137outofSwedishwatersateightknots,thesamespeedatwhichitentered
Gåsefjärden,andfounditmadea“hellofaracket”.MuchlouderthanSwedishsubmarines:“likethe
soundoftwopowerfuldiesellocomotivestravellingtogetheratfullthrustwithoutsilencers”.
Myhrbergsummedupthesceptics’viewwhenhesaid:“Justonething.U137penetratedGåsefjärden
travellingonthesurfaceinfullviewofSwedishradarandclearlyannounceditsarrivalinloudly
rumblingdieselengines.Thatonitsownisenoughtomakethesupremecommander’shypothesis(ofaspy
submarinemission)untenable.Asubmarineonaspyingmissionclearlywouldhaveuseditssilent
electricenginesandwouldnothaveapproachedthecoastfrombeneaththesurfacetoavoidtheriskof
beingspottedeitherbyshipsorsurfaceradar.”
WasMyhrbergrighttoexoneratetheSovietsofintentionallygoingintoSwedishwaters?NATOnations
tendedtothinkofthisviewasextraordinarilynaïve,andforgiving,attitudeoftheSwedestowardsSoviet
aggression.AsBritishdiplomaticarchivesshow,BritishdiplomatstookSovietplanningoftheintrusion
forgranted,asatestofSwedishwill.ItwasatesttheSwedishFälldingovernmentfailed.TheSwedish
responseshowedtheSwedestobefundamentallyweaktowardstheUSSR,Whitehallthought.One
Britishdiplomatwrote:“Therewasthesuddenendingoftheaffair'justwhenthingswerecomingnicely
toahead'.TheSovietcaptainhadfailedtogivesatisfactioninhisfirstinterrogation.Butwhenthe
Swedestriedtointerviewhimagainthenextdayherefusedtoleavethesubmarine.”
Headded:“ThisseemstometobethecrucialtacticaldecisionmadebytheSwedes,anditsmacksof
somethinglessthanrobustness.”
6 . Gh o stHu n t:Hårsfjärd en
Ayearlater,October1982,therewasanothersubmarineintrusion,thistimeintheStockholmarchipelago,
whichcametobetermedtheHårsfjärdenincident.(Fjärdmeansbayorfjord.)Thedatewasinteresting,
andperhapsnotcoincidental.Afortnightbeforetheintrusions,19September1982,PalmeandhisSocial
Democratshadbeenre-electedaftersixyearsoutofoffice,turfingoutFälldin.AlthoughFälldinhadbeen
regardedbytheBritishas“weak”inhishandlingoftheU137intrusionaffair,hewas,beinganominal
rightofcentreprimeminister,generallyregardedasmorepro-WesternthanPalme.Justasmuchofthe
restofWesternEuropewasturningrightwards–Schmidt’sdeparturebeingthemaineventhere-and
generallybecomingmorepro-American,herewasSwedenlurchingtotheleft.Asiftoprovehisworst
detractorsright,PalmeimmediatelyannouncedaprogrammeofpacifismanddialoguewiththeSoviets.
IncontrasttotheblunderingintrusionoftheU137,theHårsfjärdenintrusionwasasleek,effective
operationbyahiddenintruderthattestedprovocativelyandskilfullythecollectiveeffortsoftheSwedish
navy.
ThenewcoldwarhadintensifiedintheyearbetweentheWhiskey'sgroundingin1981andnow,October
1982.Thepeacemovementsandpeacemarcheshadreallygotgoing.NATOwasunderpressure.Sothis
newintrusioncameasagodsendfortheWest’smilitaryplanners.IfthisnewintrusionwasSoviet–and
untilevidencesuggestedotherwise,itwasseenaslikelytobeSoviet–thenthishadserious
repercussionsfortheSovietUnion'sreputation–andthereforethereputationofeverypoliticianin
ScandinaviawhoadvocateddialoguewiththeUSSR.ThatincludedofcoursePalme.
Oneintrusion,i.e.theU137incident,thedefinitiveSovietintrusionoftheyearbefore,couldalwaysbe
writtenoffasaccident,but,inthedramaturgyofinternationalrelations,swearingnottodosomething
again,andthendoingit,createsbadfaith.TheSovietscoulddefinitelynotbetrusted.ASoviet
harassmentofapeacefulneighbourclearlycontradictedthereputationforbeinginterestedinpeacein
Europe,no?
ThebigHårsfjärdenhuntbeganwhentwoconscriptsonpatrolspottedaconningtowerandmastmoving
inaveryconspicuouswayintotheshelteredwatersofHårsfjärdenbay,inStockholm’sarchipelago,a
mazeofforest-covered,mostlyuninhabited,islands.Thebay,situated30kmsouthofStockholm,was
closetoanextremelysensitivemilitaryarea.ItwasclosetoSweden’smostimportantnavalbase,Muskö,
acomplexofgunemplacements,docksandundergroundlivingquartersexcavatedoutoftheislandrock.
NotfornothinghadnewspaperarticlesabouttheplacecalledSweden'stopnavalbase“JamesBond-
like”.ThewellprotectedandstrategicallylocatedHårsfjärdenbaysurroundingtheMusköislandbase
hadforalongtimebeenananchorageplacefortheSwedishnavy.
Onthemorningof5October,journalistswerebriefedbySwedishnavyofficials.Theysaidthatprobably
theforeignsubmarinewasrestingonthebottomwithacrewmangluedtohisheadphones,connectedto
thepassivesonar,orhydrophone:listeningtothepingingsoundproducedbySwedishvesselsasthey
usedactivesonartolocatethesubmarine.Thebigquestionwashowlongthetrappedforeignsubmarine
couldstaythere.Thedeterminingfactorwasifthesubmarinehadtheopportunitytoraiseitssnorkeltoget
airintothevessel,inwhichcasethesubmarinecouldstayweeksunderwater.Otherwise,withoutfresh
air,itwasamatterofdays.Thedifficultywasthatraisingasnorkelinthebay,filledwithSwedish
vesselsandhelicopters,wasadifficultthing.Inthislimitedareaitwouldbeeasyforaradartocatchthe
snorkelandtherebyrevealthesubmarine’sposition.
Airsupplywasoneproblemforthetrappedsubmarine.Gettingoutwasanother.Journalistsweretoldit
wasatoughjobtogetoutofsuchnarrowstraits.Evenifthesubmarinecoulddetecttheseabottom
throughitssonarsandechosounderitneedstocheckitspositionregularlyusingaperiscope.Buteven
heretheSwedishradarcouldreactquickly.Anighttimeescapeattemptrequiredthatthesubmarineused
itsownradartogetanideaofthesurroundingarchipelago.Suchamanoeuvrewouldhavetotakeplace
veryslowly.Theradarmastwouldberaised,dosomesweepsandwasthenretractedbelowthewater’s
surfaceagain.Thatwouldbeenoughforthecrew.Butitcarriedadoublerisk.Theperiscopecouldbe
detectedbynormalradarsweep.Andshipshadwarningapparatusthatimmediatelydetectedradar
transmitters.
Adozendepthchargeshadbeenusedsofar,navalpressofficersreported.Asofthe5October,the
operationwasstillinthehandsoftheoutgoinggovernmentofThorbjörnFälldin.OlofPalme,theprime
ministerelect,expressedsurpriseastowhyhehadn’tbeentolduntillunchtimeontheTuesday.Inthe
afternoon,thebaywaspatrolledbythreenavyhelicopters,andseveralsmallerpatrolboats.ASwedish
submarineblockedtheexitofthebay.
Bytheevening,Fälldinsaidsubmarinewasn’tjustgoingtobemadetoleavethearea.“Ifthereisa
foreignsubmarineinourarchipelagoitisgoingtobeforcedupsothatitsnationalitycanbedetermined.”
Heconfirmedthatthesupremecommanderofthearmedforceshadreceivedthenew,sharpened
regulationsforsubmarinehunts.Inresponsetoaquestionofwhetherdepthchargesweretobepermitted
tobedroppedclosertothesubmarinethanonpreviousoccasionsheanswered:“Theanswerisobvious.”
PalmedidnotwishtomakeanycommentafterhismeetingwithFälldinotherthantosayheregardedasit
anextremelyseriousintrusion.BörjeAndersson,thedefenceministerelect,toldthenationalTTnews
agencyhethoughtthesubmarineoughttobeforcedtothesurface.
Bynow,afewdaysin,thetrappedsubmarinehadbecomeanewseventofglobalproportions.Acatand
mousegamebetweentheforcesofasmallneutralcountryandthatofalarge,menacingsuperpower.
(BecauseofcoursethesubmarinehadtobeSoviet.)
IntheeveningoftheTuesday–whenjournalistsfromtheBBC,NBC,theTimesandmanyother
internationaloutletshadarrivedatthepresscentreestablishedattheBerganavalschool,nearMuskö
navalbase-theSwedishTTnewsagencytalkedtoacoupleofnavalofficers.Theofficerswerevery
surprisedthesubmarinehadn’tbeensurfaced.“Ithastakensomuchpunishment,”saidHansVonHofsten,
thecommanderofthedestroyerHalland,andoneofthechiefsattheBerganavalschool.Theyspeculated
onwhetheritwasanewkindofsubmarine…aspysubmarine.Hofstenwonderedwhetherthesubmarine
wassmallerthannormalsubmarines,asuperstrengthhull,completelyunarmedandwithatinycrew,and
totallylackingthecomfortsofothersubmarines.“Itisquitepossiblethatitisasubmarinelikethislying
ontheseabottom.”Thereportersaidthatallnavyofficers,atpressconferences,radiatedastrong
determinationtofindthesubmarineandforceittothesurfaceforidentification.“Theyregardthe
presenceofthesubmarinesoclosetothecoastaldefencesystem’smostimportantbaseasamostcolossal
provocation”.
ThenightbetweenthefifthandsixthofOctoberwasclearandmoonlit,andthehelicopterskepthovering
until3amwiththeirsonarsdippedintothewater.Thentheybrokeoff,leavingthepatrolvesselstolisten
outforsubmarinesuntildawn,whilejournalistsfromaroundtheworldspenttheeveningdozingor
stayingupinthesportshallofthenavalschool.Atlunchtimetherewasahailofquestionsforthe
Swedishnavyspokesman.Ifitwasn’tasubmarinewhatwasit?Thenavyhad,inthepast24hours,
severaltimestalkedabout“vessel”or“theobject”.Didthismeanthenavytherewassomeremote
controlledorpreprogrammedmachineouttheretauntingthem?Thespokesmansaid“wehavenever
thoughtaboutthepossibility.Buttheintelligentbehaviourofthevesselspeaksagainstthatalternative
anyway”.Thenavyspokesmansaidthehunthadcontinuedallnightusinghelicoptersandships.Healso
confirmedthatdivershadbeenusedinthehunt.Whythennoresult?Accordingtothenavy,theseabed
insidethearchipelagowasgoodforasubmarineseekinghidingplaces.Therewerelotsofrockshelters
andhollowsforasmallersubmarinetohidein.PressspokesmanSvenCarlssonsaidtherewasnothing
strangeinlosingcontactatregularintervals.Headded:“Iadmititmayseemstrangethatourattacks
haven’thadthedesiredeffectbuttheexplanationisthatwehavenotescalatedtomassivelevelthatyou
wouldseeinawarsituation.”
Thereporterspiledonthequestions.TheSwedishnavystillwishedtoavoidseriouslydamagingthe
vessel?Howwouldthesubmarinebeseenoffifthevesselwasforcedtothesurface?“Thatquestionis
politicalandoughttobemadetothepoliticians.”Thenavyspokesmansaidtheywerepreparedforall
eventualities:thepossibilitythatthesubmarinewouldforceabreakout.
FOA,thestateDefenceResearchInstitute,hadanexpertonsubmarineissueswhowasinterviewed.He
speculatedthatthetrappedsubmarinemightbesendingouta“ghostvessel”,amodernflyingDutchman
designedtoconfuseanddeceivetheSwedes:modernsubmarinescouldhavesomekindofmannedvessel
sentoutofthetorpedotubes,eitherabletomoveonitsorownorsteeredbythesubmarines.Thisdecoy
couldbeconstructedtogiveofthesamesoundsasarealsubmarine.Thedecoycouldbesentintothe
Musköareafromasubmarinelyingoutsidethebayinordertostudytheenormouschaosithadcreatedin
thenavy,indeedthewholeofSweden.
Theexpertaddedthatthedifficultyinfindingthesubmarinewasduetothefactthattheseabedandthe
landcontoursoftheislandsintheareamadeforconfusingradarechoreadings:itwouldbeeasyto
concealasubmarinehere.Thenavyhadtwowaystodetectthesubmarine:partlythroughpassivesonar,
listeningonthesubmarine.Theotheralternativewastotryanddetectthesoundofthesubmarine
propellers.
Astheafternoonworeon,amemberofthepublicinMalmocontactedthemedia.Hehadahelpful
suggestion:trainedsealsfordetectingsubmarines.GöranHekton,aretiredexpertontraininganimals,
whohadcarriedoutexperimentswithanimalsinWorldWar2,saidhehadtrainedinanisolatedbay
nearStockholmpredatorybirds,mainlyhawks,whichweretrainedtospotperiscopes,markthemand
diveafterthem.Afterthat,Hektonhadstartedtrainingseals.Theywerecapturedonicefloesoutinthe
archipelago.Thetrainingbeganwiththemswimmingbetweendifferentsubmarinedecoyswhiletrainers
madesounds.Ifthesealsbehavedasthetrainerswishedtheywererewardedwithfood.Someseals
neverlearnedbutotherslearnedtoswimtothesourcesofthesounds.Thesealsweretrainednotonlyin
locatingsubmarinesbutalsotofetchlittleyellowbitsofcorkfixedtothetrainingvessels.Eventuallythe
sealsweresenttosubmarinesanddecoyswheretherewasnopieceofcoal.Intheharnessofthedeal
therewasalongpieceofyarninwhichacarbidelanternwasattached.Whenthesealreachedthe
submarineiteagerlylookedforthepieceofcorkandtheyarngotensnaredintherailingsofthe
submarines,itsmastsandperiscopes.Whenthesealbegantorunoutofairanditwasforcedtosurfaceit
toreitselfawayfromtheyarn.Stillattachedtothesubmarinewasthecarbidelantern.Inthedaytimethe
submarine’slocationcouldbedeterminedfromthecarbidegasesthatrosetothesurface.Inthenighttime
thefaintlightfromthelanterncouldalsobeseen.ThenavythankedHektonforhisadvicefromworldwar
2.Butthiswas1982andtherewerenotrainedsealsinservice,alas.
Wednesday6October1982woreon.Itwasthelastdayoftheright-of-centregovernmentbeforehanding
overtoOlofPalme.TheoutgoingdefenceministerTorstenGustafssonsaidhedoubtedthatasuperpower
wassointerestedintheSwedishdefencedebatethey’dsendinasubmarine.ThatSweden’sincreased
strategicimportanceledtomoreintrusionsalongSweden’scoastswassomethingheregardedasmore
likely.“IhopethatSweden,asthefirstcountryintheworld,managestoforceasubmarinetosurface,”he
said.Therewerecontingencyplanshowtoactwhenthesubmarinewassurfaced.Thegovernmentand
diplomatswouldthentakeover.Theexperienceswerebasedonthepreviousyear’seventsin
Karlskrona.
Despitethearrivalofforeignjournalists,6October1982wasquieteroverHårsfjärdenthenprevious
days.Theheavyhelicopterswereabsent;onlythelighthelicoptersweremovingbackandforth.There
werealsofewerindicationson6Octoberthanpreviousdays.Therewerenotracesofitafterafewdepth
chargeshadbeenusedinthemorning.Eventhoughthehunthadscaleddownalittle,theareawasof
continuedinterestforthenavy,saidaspokesman.
TheregionalauthoritiesnowdeclaredtheHårsfjärdenlandandseaareaofflimitstomembersofthe
public.Boattaxisthatferriedpeoplebetweentheislandsandprofessionalfishermenwereexcepted.The
officialreasonwassecurity.“Depthchargesmighthavetobeusednearthebeaches.”
Onthefirstpressconferenceofthemorningof7October,theSwedishnavyannouncedithadmade
contactwiththesuspectedsubmarineinHårsfjärden.Carlsson,thepressspokesman,wasmoretight-
lippedthanusual.Herefusedtoanswerwhetherthenewmagneticfinderhadbeenused.Oilsamplesthat
hadbeentakenfromthesurfacehadbeensenttoalabforanalysis,buthadnotbeenidentified.The
questionofthesubmarine’sendurancewasaconstanttheme.Carlssonadmittedatthepressconference
thattherewasthepossibilitythesubmarinemighthavebeenabletodrawinairatnight.Thequestionof
whetherthesubmarinewasunmannedwasanotherrecurringthemethatemergedinpressquestions.“In
thatcase,Ihavethegreatestrespectforthetechnologythathasbeenused,”saidCarlsson.
WhilethepoliticalnewsofthedaywasfocusedontheformationofPalme’snewgovernment,andthe
allocationofseatsonthevariousselectcommittees,aseniormilitaryofficialconfirmedtotheTTnews
agencyintheafternoonof7Octoberthatthehuntwasatthestagewherethenavyhadtoweighitswords
verycarefully.
Irritationwasgrowingbothamongpoliticiansandthemilitaryoverthedifferentspeculationsoverthe
“object”inHårsfjärden.SeniorofficialValdemarWilckesaid“Therearethoseofficerswhohavesaida
littlebittoomuch–anonymouslyinsomecases.Itisverysensitivetotalkaboutlevelsofpreparationor
makeprognosesaboutwhatisgoingtohappen.Theinformationwasmorecompleteatthebeginningof
theweekbecausewhathappeneddidnotrequireconfidentiality.Inthelasttwodaysforconfidentiality
reasonswecannotpassonwhathashappened.”
TheTTnewsagencyreportercommented:theSwedishnavywasinaverydifficultsituation,facingan
evermoreirritatedandnewsfamishedgatheringofjournalistsfromaroundtheworld.
Thenavyhadpreparedaninternmentcampfora50mansubmarinecrew.Itwasreportedfrommilitary
andpoliticalcirclesthatthistimetheywerenotstrangerstotheideaofholdingthewholecrewand
carryingoutinterrogationswitheverysinglecrewmember-somethingthathadnotbeendoneinthe
U137incident.
“Justastherearepreparationsforemergencyhospitalcare,therearepreparationsforinterningthe
submariners,”saidanavysource.Whereandhowwasasecretbecauseofpossibleoutsiderescue
attemptsofthesubmarine.“Ifinternmentbecomesanissue,wewillhavetomakesurethecreware
quicklybroughtunderoneroofandpreventedfrommakingcontactwiththeoutsideworld,”saidWilcke.
Thereseemedtobedevelopmentsinthebay:shortlybefore1530hoursontheThursdayfourdepth
chargeswereusedagainstwhatwasthoughttobetheforeignsubmarineonitswaytowardsthenorthern
barrier,inthenorthpartofthebay.Therewasnowthoughttobemorethanone,maybeseveral,
submarinesinthebay.
ThehuntthenmovedeasttowardsabaycalledMysingenfromwhichitwasmucheasiertoescapetothe
opensea.Later,though,thehelicoptersreturnedtotheirpreviouslocationswheretheyhadbeenformuch
oftheweek.
TheNationalDefenceresearchInstituteFOAexplainedtothepressthattheSwedishnavywas
handicappedbythefactthatmostoftheirtrainingforsubmarinehuntshadtakenplaceintheopenseas
andnotinseabaysorseafjords.ButtheFOAexpertadded:“Maybe,inthefuture,itwillbecome
necessarytotrainthesubmarinehuntersforworkdeepinthefjords.”
But,headded,eventhesubmarinecaptainmusthavehadgreatdifficultiesdespitebeingso
“inconsiderate”astoheadintonarrowbayswherenormalsubmarinehuntingmethodsdon’toperate.The
submarinecaptainmusthavehadenormousdifficultiesnavigatinginthefjordforeightdaysifhehadn’t
hadapointofreference.Toheadintothearchipelago,thesubmarinemusthavehadexcellentequipment
andthecaptainmusthavehadexperienceofnavigatinginarchipelagos,andnotmanycountrieshave
archipelagos.Itisdifficultevenwithsoundradartonavigatebetweenskerries,cliffsandunderwater
rocksinHårsfjärden.Atthesametimeastheseabedofferedprotection,therewerealsodangers.
Itwasriskyeventonavigatewithanormalnavalchart.Specialnavalmeasurementinstrumentswere
needed,saidthepanelofexpertsattachedtoFOA,speakingtothepress.Theexpertswereunitedin
sayingthenavycouldn’tbeexpectedtoproduceresultsanyquickerthantheywere.
Aslightfellataroundsixo’clockontheeveningof7October1982theheavyvertolhelicopterswere
stillhoveringoverHårsfjärden,spyingwiththeirsonars.Onearlierevenings,thehelicopters’searchhad
stoppedatnightfall,butafterthefivedepthchargesontheThursdayafternoonthenavyseemedeagerto
forcematterstoaconclusion.TheNationalSeaboardmeasurementships–onemothervesselandeight
smallerboats-wentbackandforthacrossthebay.Outinthedistance,barelyvisible,laytheSwedish
submarineSjöhundenhalf-submerged,andthesubmarinerecoveryshipBelos.
ThepressconferencewithchiefofstaffBrorStefensonontheThursdayevening7OctoberattheBerga
navalschoolwasprobablythebestattendedeventever,byforeignjournalists,inSweden.“Weare
completelyawareoftheSwedishpublic’sexpectationsofus,”andaddedthathehadneverbeentotally
convincedhimselfthattherewasasubmarineinHårsfjärden.Hadthesubmarinebrokenoutthroughthe
northernbarrier?hewasasked.“Ican’tsayanythingmorethanthattherearequestionmarks”,hesaid.
“Butnotmuchhaschangedandwestandbyourearlierline.Tocatchthevesselorwhateveritmaybe.”
Stefensondismissedspeculationthatthehuntwasnearingitsend.“Itcouldcontinuelikethisforalong
time.”
TheTTnewsagency’sreportercommented:thenavywasobviouslybotheredthattheywereunableto
showsomeresultsfromtheirhunt.Theyblamedtechnology.Depthchargesareaclumsyweapon.
Stefensonaddedthatdepthchargeswerehardtoplacesothattheyexplodedatanoptimumdistanceaway
fromthesubmarine.Sonarscouldn’taccuratelymeasuredistancesandatthesametimethesubmarinewas
alwaysmanoeuvring.Atarget-seekingmissiletorpedowasabetterbet,andtheSwedishnavyhadstocks
ofthese,buttheyweresopowerfultheycouldonlybeusedintimeofwar.Thenavywasnow
developingaweakerexplosiveforthetorpedobutthesehadn’treachedfrontlineunitsyet.Also,the
seabedconditionsatHårsfjärdenwerechallenging.Inadditiontherewasadeeptrench,60m,inthe
middleofthebaywhichwassomethingthathadnotuntilnowbeenmadepublic.Maybethesubmarine
hadmovedthere?
OnFriday8October1982,thenavyconfirmedthebreak-outattemptatthenorthernbarrieroftheday
before.Aftertheattempt,thenavyreported“interestingcontacts”insideHårsfjärden.Butdidnotsay
whethertherewereanysubmarinesleftinthebayitself.“Wearegoingforwardsasmuchaswecan,”
saidonespokesman,EvertDahlen.Wedon’tletoffanywarningshotsandwebombclosertothe
submarinethanbefore.”
Severalregimentsoftheeasternmilitarydistrictcancelledweekendleavefortheirconscripts.Butthere
wasnothingaboutwhatwashappeningontheday,soreportersmadetheirwayouttotheareaaround
Hårsfjärden,wherecrowdshadgathered.Reporterscouldseethatforeignsubmarinehadbecomepublic
entertainment.HundredsofpeoplehadgatheredatÅrsta,abathingresort,andreportersfromtheSwedish
mediasaiditseemedmanywerenottakingthehuntveryseriously.“Whereisthesubmarine?Whyhaven’t
theycaughtit?”wasthemostcommoncommentfromthepublic.Manyhadsuggestionsastowhattodoto
bringthesubmarinetothesurface.Diversandmorepowerfulchargesweretwocommonideas.An
AmericanTVteam,meanwhile,filmedmembersofthepublicbuyinghotdogsfromavanwhichhad
magicallyappearedbythesideofthebay.Atthesametime,aSpanishTVteamwasfilmingtheAmerican
TVteamfilmingthehotdogvan.TheTTnewsagency’sreportersummarised:“Thesubmarinein
Hårsfjärdenhasmadeheadlinesaroundtheworld”.Thesausagestandmanwasinterviewed.“Itis
terriblethatthesubmarinesmoveinandoutofourwaterslikethis…butwecoulddowithasublikethis
everyyearforbusiness’ssake.”
InotherdevelopmentsontheFriday8October1982,thenavyannounceditshelicopterswouldbe
equippedwithtowedarraysonars.Incontrasttothestandardhelicoptersonarsplacedinthewater,these
didnothavetobepulledoutofthewatereverytimethehelicoptermoved.Thereforethehelicopters
couldworkatacertainspeedandlistencontinuouslywhichmademonitoringmoreeffective,saidthe
statematerieladministrationFMV,thestate’smilitaryequipmentprovider.Thehelicoptercouldn’tmove
withthesonarinthewaterbecauseitisnotequippedforit.Thereforethehelicopterhadtoraisethe
hydrophoneonceanareahadbeenlistenedto.Thenewhydrophone,workingonaspecialfrequency,had
aspecialteardropshape.Ithadtheadditionaladvantageofbeingabletobeloweredtowhateverdepth
theoperatorliked.Especiallyinsummertime,theBalticSeaarrangeditselfindifferenttemperature
layers.Andsoundsignalsfromonelayertoanextentwerereflectedbackfromanothertemperaturelayer,
anFMVspokesmansaid.Thenewtowedarraysonarcouldbelowereddowntodifferenttemperature
layerswhilethehelicopterwasmoving.Thiswaterbornecontinuoussoundsurveillanceoughtfroma
costpointofviewbeconsiderablycheaperincomparisontohelicopterbasedsoundsurveillance,since
thecostsofkeepingahelicopterintheairwereextremelyhigh.Inthefuture,lasersmightbeusedto
detectsubmarines,theFMVsaid.Airborneequipmentbasedongreenlaserlightreflectedthelightfrom
objectsinwater.Iftherewasnoobject,thelightweakenedorbouncedagainsttheseabed,differently
diffuseddependingonseabedconditions.Anothermethodwouldtoplaceoutsonarbuoys,halfametre
highand15cmdiameterlarge“tincans”forpassivedetecting.
OntheSaturdaymorning,9October1982,therewasaperiodofadvancedairbornereconnaissance.The
coastguard’slightaircraftbegantosurveytheareaaroundHårsfjärden.Itwasequippedbothwithsonar
andheatsensitivemonitoringequipment.TheplaneflewinlongpatternsoverbothHårsfjärdenandthe
northernexitswhilethesurfaceshipsmaintainedtheirnormalpositions.Inthemorningpressbriefing,the
navyconfirmedthatthreemineshadbeendetonatedthedaybeforenearthemannedpositionsatthe
southernentrancetothearchipelago.Themines,detonatedonebyone,hadbeenplacedearlierandwere
linkedtolandviacables.Thesystemwascontrolledbynavypersonnelworkinginsidebunkersonshore.
Justasintheattackswithdepthcharges,thenavytriedtoavoiddamagingthesubmarine.However,
Carlsson,thenavyspokesman,said.“Wecannotsayitwasasubmarinewithcompletecertainty”.
OnSaturdayafternoonanexpertwhowishedtobeanonymoustoldjournalistsattheTTnewsagencythat
itwaspossiblebutextremelyunlikelythataforeignsubmarinecouldhavetravelledsubmergedinto
Hårsfjärden-unless,thatis,thesubmarinecaptainwasextremelyskilledANDhadaccesstosecret
information.Thesourcehadmanyyears’experienceofHårsfjärdenandworkedintherelevantfield.A
submarineneededa15metredrafttobeabletoentersubmerged.Normalchartswerenotsufficient,
therewerereefswhichwerenotmarkedout.TherealdifficultywasgoingfromMysingenbayinto
Hårsfjärden,Youneededmorethanchartsforthat,butalsoinformationaboutthenavy’sownsecret
passageintoMusköandHårsfjärden.
Itwaspossible,butseemedextremelyrisky,totakethesechancesinpeacetimeandriskthelivesofa
submarinecrewof,say,fortypeople,theanonymoussourcesaid.Apartfromnavigationdifficulties,the
riskofbeingdiscoveredwashighifthesubmarinewasusingtheSwedishnavy’ssecretpassages.In
war,itwouldbepossibleforaforeignpowertotryandtodothisbutitpeacetimeitwasfoolishbravado.
Saturday9October1982wasanothergooddayforthehotdogstand,asmembersofthepublicwatched
bythesidesofthefjordforeventstohappen,whichdidnot,however,barasailingboatthathadentered
theforbiddenareabymistakeandhadtobeguidedoutbypolice.Therewasarestlessmoodamongthe
journalistswhohadhungaroundthesportshallforthebetterpartofaweek.Manyguessedthatthedrama
wouldsoonbeover.Butthenavy’spressofficer,SvenCarlsson,saidthenavyhadn’tgivenupinthe
least.Carlssonadmitted,though,thatthenavystartedtogetverytiredofthejournalist’presenceinthe
areaofthehunt.ASaturdaytripwithaferrylaidonforjournalistswascancelled;theybesttheywere
offerednowwasguidedtripstothequayfromthegymhall–onceanhour.
The10thOctobermarkedthe11thstraightdayofthehunt.AccordingtocolonelDahlen,whodealtwith
thepressonSundaymorning,10October,thehunthadcontinuedasusualontheSaturdayevening.The
navy’sotherstandardphrase“Nothinghashappenedtochangeourjudgmentthatthereisasubmarinein
Hårsfjärden”wasalsotrottedout.Thenavywouldn’tsayifithadalsokeptawatchovertheMysingen
bayoutsideHårsfjärdenalso.“WejustwantedtosaythatontheSaturday–thattheareaoutside
Hårsfjärdenalsobecameinteresting.”ThesubmarinehuntershadtheeveningSaturdaySundayhad
contactwithsomethingthatcouldbeasubmarineinHårsfjärden.Thecontacthoweverwasadjudgedby
theanalysisgroupas“nonsubmarine”.Moreandmorejournalistswerenowaskingwhetherthenavy
wasplayingapracticaljokeonthepressandthepublic.Onejournalistasked:wasn’titembarrassingfor
thenavynottobeabletodemonstrateanythingfromtheweeklonghuntatHårsfjärden?No,weare
patient,wasthespokesman’sreply.Hedidn’tthinkthatthenavyhadbeentoosofteitherwhentheyhad
placedtheirdepthchargesasfaraspossiblefromthesubmarineasnottosinkit.“Thisisnotwartime.
Wehavetofollowtherulesthatexist.”
“Theonlypossibilitywehavetoidentifythesubmarineisifitrisestothesurface,”saidCarlssononthe
morningofthe10th.“Analysisoftheoilthathasfloatedtothesurfaceandisassumedtocomefromthe
submarinehasnotyieldedanyresults.Thesearchcontinuesasbefore.”TheTTnewsagencyreportedthat
thenavywasfindingithardtoaccommodatethe500orsojournalistswhohadnowturnedupfromall
overtheworld.Theconscriptsguardingthepresscentrenowhaddogsandwerearmedwithsubmachine
guns.
LunchtimeonSunday10Octoberwasquiet;thewindwasup,whichdidn’tdeterthehundredsof
onlookersfromwatchingfromtheshore.Then,intheafternoon,thesupremecommanderLennartLjung
saidhewasabsolutelycertaintherehadbeenasubmarineinHårsfjärden.Itcouldstillbethere.Ifithad
leftitwasunclearwhen.Therehadalsobeenasecondsubmarineintheouterarchipelagobetween
MälstenandSandhamn,anditwaspossibleitwasstillthere.
TheTTnewsagencyrangaprofessorofinternationallawwhosaidSwedenwaswithinitsrightstosink
asubmarine.“Theycouldbombthesubmarinetopiecesanditwouldnotbreachinternationallaw,”said
GöranMelander,aprofessorinpubliclawatUppsalaUniversity.Andeveniftheydidn’tsinkit,when
thesubmarinehadbeenescortedintothequay,thecrew–accordingtoMelander–mighteasilybeputon
trialforespionage.
“Neitherthecrewnorthecommanderwouldhaveanyimmunity.TheylostthatbygoingintoSwedish
territorialwatersallthewayintoatopsecretmilitaryarea.Normalimmunitysaysdiplomatscanvery
seldombepunishedinSwedenforwhattheydidillegally;insteadtheyaremadepersonanongrataand
askedtoleavethecountry.Theonlythingthatcaptainofthesubcouldmaintaininfrontofcourtwouldbe
thathehadbeenorderedintoSwedishmilitaryareabyhissuperiors.Thenhisdutytoobeycomesinto
conflictwithSwedishlawthatsaysyoucan’tspy.”
“IftherewereawarbetweenSwedenandthisstateyoucannotthenprosecutethecaptainorcrew.Then
theywouldbeenemycombatants.Butithastobeastateofopenwar.Swedenhastobeinvolvedinan
internationalmilitaryconflict,”hesaid.EvenifSwedenweretosinkthesubmarinewithdepthcharges
Swedencannotbesaidtobeinastateofopenwar.
Headded,though,thatitultimatelywasapoliticalmatter:itwasuptothegovernment.
ThenewPalmegovernment,nowinstalled,continuedtomaintainaverytoughattitudesetbyits
predecessor.
TherewasspeculationthatSwedenwasnegotiatingsecretlywithaforeignpowertoletthesubmarineout
andsparetheoffendertheembarrassment.ButthiswasdeniedbyPierreSchori,OlofPalme'snewly
appointedstatesecretaryintheSwedishforeignministry.“Unthinkable,”hesaid.Hedismissed,inother
words,theideathatthegovernmentwouldstrikeasecretdealwiththegovernmentthathadsentthe
submarineovertoSweden.
AnothergovernmentsourcesaidtotheTTnewsagencyonconditionofanonymity:“TheideathatSweden
woulddealwithasuperpowerinthisway[bynegotiatingwithit]isnonsense,completelybaroque.”The
otherpartiesintheforeignaffairscouncil–abipartisangroupofgovernmentandnon-governmentparties
aimedatensuringaconsensusinforeignpolicy–agreed.“Despitethedebateintheelectioncampaignthe
submarineatthebottomofHårsfjärdenisnotapartypoliticalissue.”
TheTTnewsagencytriedtoexplaintoitsreadersthemostcommonquestionjournalistsaskedNavy
spokesmen-andwhichwasaquestionthegeneralpublicoftenasked.Whyhadn’tdiversbeensentdown
toinvestigatethemysterioussubmarine?
Theproblemswithsuchanoperationwerenumerous.Thewaterwasverymurky,diverscouldseeonly1
to1.5metresaheadofthem.Foradiverthismeantgreatdifficultiesorientinghimself.Unlesshehada
lineoranotherobjecttoguidehimhewouldn’tknowifhewasswimmingupordown,straightaheador
inacircle.Youhadtoswimstraightatthesubtofindit.“Likefindinganeedleinahaystack,”saidone
professionaldiver.
Ifaso-calledsearchnet,anetwithverticalorientationropes,wasplacedout,itwasadmittedlypossible
tosearchalimitedarea,butthiswouldtakealongtimeasthenavyonlyhadabout50trainedmen
available.Thesonarsthatdetectthesubmarine’spositionarenottotallyexact,andthesubmarinecould
quicklymoveawayfromthepositionwhereitwasdetected.Ifthesubmarinestarteditspropellerit
couldbefataltothediver.Ifhewasunknowinglyclosetothesubwhenitstarteduphecouldbeseriously
injuredorkilled.
At7.30pmon10October1982,theTTnewsagencyaskedwhetherthehuntatHårsfjärdenwasnotin
factgoingtoendinafiasco.Therewasmuchthatpointedinthatdirectionaftertheheadofthearmed
forces,LennartLjung,saidthattherewasareducedprobabilityitremainedinthecordonedoffarea.
Ljungsaidthesubmarinemayhaveleftasearlyas1October,thesamedayasitenteredthearea.TheTT
newsagency’sreportersaiddisappointedlythat“waslogicalgiventhatatmosphereattheBergaschool,
wherethepresscentrewaslocated,wasincreasinglyapatheticastheweekendworeon.”Sometime
duringtheweekend,therewererumoursthattheSwedishgovernmentwasnegotiatingwithanother
governmentinSwitzerlandaboutasolutiontothesubmarineaffair.Butagainallgovernmentsources
deniedthatnegotiationsweretakingplace.
Otherwise,saidtheTTnewsagencyinitsfinalreportoftheSunday,theweekendhadbeenquite
undramatic.
Thatchanged.Monday11October1982wasthemostdramatic,themostexciting,dayofthesubmarine
hunt.Justafterlunch,at12.22pm,aminewasdetonatedbetweenNåttaröandYxlöislandsatoneofthe
straitsattheexitofthearchipelago,DanzigerGatt.
Journalistswereabletohearthedetonationsforthemselves.Afterthemineexplosion,alargecoloured
stainmixedwithoilfloatedtothesurface.
Thatevening,CommodorecaptainSvenCarlsson,thenavy’sspokesman,said,veryexcitedly:“Thereare
anumberofindicationsthatsomethingishappeningatsea.”Thenewspaperspredictedthatsomething
wouldsoonsurface.
Atsixintheevening,navypresschiefSvenCarlssontoldapressconferencethatitwasimpossibleto
bringalljournalistsovertothespotwhereaforeignsubmarinehadbeenbroughttothesurface.Heasked
themtoselectasmallnumberamongthemselveswhowouldbeobligedtosharetheirmaterialwithallthe
others.Thesejournalists,thesocalled“pool”,wouldbeshippedouttheareainthebaywherethe
damagedforeignsubwouldbebroughtuptothesurface.Radio,TVandprintrespectivelyhadtheir
representativesforthetripouttothesunkensubmarinechosenbylots.
Onshortwaveradiosthejournalistsonlandlistenedinonthenavy’sradiocommunication.The
helicoptershoveredabovetheDanzigerGattstraitswherethemineexplosionshadtakenplace.Laterthat
eveningSvenCarlsson,thepressspokesman,forthefirsttimeduringtheentirehuntwassummonedtothe
mainnavalbaseatMuskö.Whenhecamebackhewasevenmoreexcited;hetalkedforthefirsttime
aboutacertainsubmarine,notjustapossiblesubmarine,accordingtoStockholmstidningennewspaperof
12October1982.
“Theminethatexplodedmighthavesunkasubmarine.Itisn’timpossible.Thesubmarinerescue
underwatervehicleBelosisintheareaanddriversareworkingonit,”Aftonbladetnewspaperquoted
navyspokesmanCarlssonassaying.ToVG,aNorwegiannewspaper,Carlssonsaid:“Wefearaseverely
damagedsubmarineontheseabottom.”
ThenextdayCarlssonhadchangedhistune.Therewasn’tahalfsunkenanddamagedsubmarineafterall.
TheTTnewsagencyreportedthenextevening,Tuesday12October,thatthenavyspokesmanhad
reportedthatthesubmarinerecoveryvesselBeloshadbeeninthearea,andfoundnothing.Carlsson,the
navypressspokesman,admittedthattheprobabilityoftrulyfindingasubmarinehaddeclinedonthe
Tuesday,afterthedramaticescalationwiththemineexplosionontheMonday.
OntheeveningofWednesday13October,thecommanderinchief,LennartLjung–whohaddeputisedthe
runningofthehunttochiefofdefencestaffBrorStefenson--andtheheadofthenavy,admiralPer
Rudberg,visitedthepresscentreinthesubmarineschool.Theyseemedtobepreparingtheworld’smedia
forafailure:“Wearedeeplydisappointednottohavebeenabletoconcludethisinthemannerthatthe
Swedishpeoplehaveexpectedofus,”Ljungsaid.Thenavythendecidedtoshowtheworldpressatleast
someoftheirfindings.TheheadoftheNavalanalysisgroup,40-year-oldEmilSvensson,appeared
beforetheassembledjournalistsandplayedsoundsofhydrophoneechoes.
Svenssonwasthe“chiefanalyst”oftheevidenceandhadateamunderhim.Hetoldthepress.“Wewho
dotheseanalyses:wearethecriticalones.”Abuoythathadcausedsomeexcitementwasoneofthe
navy’sown,alas,itwasannounced.Otherwisethehuntwascontinuing–now,inthefurthestextremities
ofthearchipelago.Theinnerarchipelago,Hårsfjärdenitself,couldberegardedasvirtuallysealedoff.
Therewasalastflurryofexcitementonthemorningofthe14thofOctoberwhendepthchargeswere
droppedbetweentheislandofMälsteninthenorthtotheislandofSandhamnintheouterarchipelago.It
happenedafterthehelicoptershadrenewedcontactwith“possiblesubmarine,”SvenCarlsson,thenavy
pressspokesman,announced.Themedia’shopeswerebrieflyraised,butitdribbledaway.
ThatThursdayevening,14October,themediacentrestartedtoempty.TheTVteamsdismountedthe
cameraswhichhadbeeninafixedpositionformostoftheweek,pointedoutatthepressspokesman’s
podium,fromtheforestofmicrophoneshadgone.
OneSwedishreporterfiledabittersweetenvoitothehuntwhenhewrote.“TheTVcameraslightshave
goneout,theclatteroftypewritersandphoneshasgonesilent.ThenowworldfamouscaptainSven
Carlssontakeshistypewriterandleaves.Theonlybuoysthatremainafteralltherumours,speculation,
truthsanduntruthshangoffthebanisterabovethegalleryabovethehall”.
“ItwasinthehallwhereSvenCarlssonhadstoodintheworld’sspotlightsandbeeninterviewedduring
latenightsbyaninvisiblemantalkingdirectlyfromWashington.ThevoicehasbelongedtotheAmerican
TVcompanyCBSorNBCorABC.”
“Dayandnightthecateringladieshadservedbeer,coffee,bunsandsandwichestotiredjournalists,
photographers,techniciansandconscripts.Tablesandchairswerefoldedup,andsoononlythe
figureheadfromthefrigateEugeniewouldbestaringdownoveranemptyhall.”Fortheconscripts,the
workscheduleinthreeshiftswasalmostover,Thelastconscriptinthehallrubbedoutthewordsonthe
blackboard,meanttobeajoke:“Ourspecialityistomanipulatetheinternationalpress.”
“Wearegoingtomakeanevaluationofthesubmarinehuntandhowtheinformationhasbeenhandled,”
saidBörjeJohansson,oneofthenavypressspokesmen.Athousandpresspasseshadbeenissuedoverten
days,averylargenumberforasmallcountrylikeSweden.“Ouraimhasalwaysbeentotellthetruth,”he
said.Butjournalistshadshowngreatunderstandingofthefact,becauseofreasonsofconfidentiality,the
navyhadnothadbeenabletosayeverythingitknew.Headmittedthatthecommanderinchief’s
appearancehadbeenakindof“roundup”butinsistedthatthehuntwascontinuing.“Thesearchwillgo
untilwearecompletelysuretherearenoenemyvesselsleft”
Apressconferencewasheldthenextday,Friday15October,atSkeppsholmen–shipisland,thehistoric
centreofthenavyinStockholm,neartheoldtown–buttherewerenonewobservationstoreport.Some
ofthemilitaryunitshadbeenpulledbackfromHårsfjärdenandthesubmarinerecoveryshipBelos’screw
wererestingtoo.AhandfulofjournalistswereonhandtohearCarlssontellthemHårsfjärdenwouldbe
closedtociviliantrafficforanothercoupleofweeks.
The17Octobermarkedthelastroutinepressconference.“Theairhasgoneoutofthehunt,”sighedthe
TTnewsagency’sreporter.Oneprivatepersonhadreportedasubmarineatanon-specifiedpositionin
theouterarchipelago,butnoimportancewasattachedtotheobservationasitwasmadeinthedarkness.
On18OctoberSvenCarlsson,thenavy’spressspokesman,announcedthatthehuntwouldcontinuefor
anotherweek.On1Novemberthesubmarinehuntwasofficiallydeclaredover.
TheNewYorkTimes,intwoStockholmdispatches,describedStockholmasacitywhoseleadenOctober
skiesdrainedallthecolouroutofthebuildingsandthelastleavesofautumnclungtothebirchtreesinthe
parks.ThedoingsofJREwinginDallasweremuchmoreinterestingthanspeculationastowhowas
goingtowintheNobelprizes.Therewas“alarmmixedwithinsatiablecuriosity”abouttheHårsfjärden
incident.Dailypressaccountsmadeitseemasifworldwarthreehadstarted,but“thenavyhadfailedto
uncoverasinglepieceofevidence”onlykilledalotofaquaticlifewithdepthcharges:“hundredsofdead
fish”couldbefoundalongtheshoresTheapparentfailuretocatchthesubmarineseemedtocauseas
“muchreliefasdisappointment”.“TheSwedeslastyearhadtoreleaseaSovietsubmarinethatran
agroundoffthesoutherncoastandthefailuresofartolocatethenewintruderhassparedthisneutralist
nationtheembarrassmentofrepeatingthatperformance.”
“TomanySwedesitwasiftheRussianoffenderswerelikethevillagedrunkwhogetslockedupevery
Fridaynightbutneverspentenoughtimeinjailtocorrecthisways”.ButmanySwedesweredeeply
worriedthatRussianpresenceinSwedishwaterswouldcauseSwedentobetargetedbyNATO’s
missiles.
AnotherdispatchinTheNewYorkTimesfromStockholmon17October1982saidthatthegovernment,
angeredandembarrassedbytherepeatedincursions,orderedthenavytochangetacticstocaptureand
humiliateforeignintruders.Newrulesofengagementwouldbecombinedwithnewantisubmarine
weapons.Still,theSwedeswouldhavetogetbetteratdetectingsubs,whichwashardintheBaltic’s
waterasitwas.IntheBalticwatersdifferentlayerswereofdifferenttemperaturesandsaltiness,because
oftherunofffrommanysweetwaterrivers.Thismadesonarsearcheshard.
Morereasonswhytheforeignsubhadn’tbeenbroughtup:TheBalticwasalsounusuallyrichin
shipwrecks–thebrackishandcoldsealackedthewoodandmetaleatingbacteriathatmoultawaythe
wrecksquicklyelsewhere.Therewasalsoalotofmetaldebrislikefridgesandoldcars.Fishsounds
alsoconfusedthesonars.
Afterthehunthaddieddown,navyofficersmadeapost-mortem.On15November,PerRudberg,headof
theSwedishnavy,calledforincreasedresourcesforsubmarinehunts.Hecalledforachangeofthe
militaryspendingplanstoenablethemtoputthroughchangesasquicklypossible.Nextyeartheywould
getthreemoreVertolhelicopters,butthiswasn’tmuchfora2700kmcoastline.Hesaidanadditionof
120millionkronorwouldmakeiteasiertoputforwardthedeliveryofnextyear’spurchases,hesaid.
ThenewweaponthattheSwedishnavywasdevelopingwasatorpedothatdidn’tkillthesubmarine,only
damagedit–thusforcingittosurface.HesaidtherewasadangerthatthecredibilityofSweden’s
neutralitypolicywoulddeclineifthesystematicintrusionsbyforeignsubmarinescontinued.Boththe
extentandthetacticssuggestedanenormousoperationbytheopponent.TheintrusionintoHårsfjärden
musthavebeenprecededbyanextensiveandcarefulplanning,saidRudberg.
WastheescapedsubmarinenotSovietastheonethepreviousyearhadbeen?Therewasnoevidence,but
mostmembersoftheSwedishpublicknewexactlywhattothink.TheSwedishpublic’sattitudestowards
theSovietUnionhadinashorttimebecome`stronglynegative,saidapollster,theStateBoardfor
PsychologicalDefence.
SwedishpollsshowedthattherewasagrowingappreciationoftheUnitedStates’spositiverolefor
worldpeace.
However,atthesametime,PierreSchori,statesecretaryattheforeignministry,announcedhewaspaying
avisittoMoscowinJanuary1983asplanned.“ThedeclarationofpersonanongrataoftwoSoviet
diplomatswasaclearsignalfromtheSwedes,”saidSchori.“Butthatisnoreasontoputoffthevisit.”It
wasn’tanexpressionoffriendship,butaquestionofbusinessrelations:asneighbours,Swedenandthe
USSRhadalotofbilateralquestionstotalkabout,likefamilyreunionsandtelephonelinks.
Schori’stripsuggestedthatPalme'sgovernmentwaswillingnottoletthesubmarineintrusionsaffect
SwedishSovietrelationstoomuch,despitethenegativeatmosphereandthegeneralairofsuspicionleft
bytheunresolvedsubmarinemystery.TheSovietUnion’sofficialforeignbroadcaststationRadio
MoscowhadgivenanunusuallysharpsummaryoftheeventsatHårsfjärden.
Ittalkedaboutthe“mysterious,unidentifiedunderwaterobjects”asa“giganticbluff”.“Thepropaganda
apparatuscomesupwithimpossiblehypothesesandtherebysowssuspicionandhostilitytowardsthe
USSR.Tensionwasupheld,saidTASS,artificiallybyimportantinterviewsthatthemilitaryholdsleftand
right.TheSwedishpublic’sattentionsweredistractedfromtherealdangers,andthatwasnottobefound
underwater.ThedangerRadioMoscowreferredtowastheUnitedStatesandNATO,saidTTnews
agency’sMoscowcorrespondent.ButRadioMoscowwascarefulnottoblameOlofPalme,whichitsaw
asamanofpeace.
InthesameveinasSchori’sannouncedtriptoMoscow.Sweden’snewlyappointedforeignminister
LennartBodströmtoldapressconferenceinNorwayafewdayslaterthatrelationswiththeSovietUnion
wouldsoonbenormalised.Therehadbeennoproofwhowasresponsiblethistime,andtheU137
incidentwouldnotbeallowedtopoisonrelationsformuchlonger.
ButthegovernmentofOlofPalmewasnottobeallowedtoletrelationswiththeSovietUnionresume
theirnormaltonesoquickly.Afewmonthslater,representativesfromtheSwedishparliamentpublished
areportontheHårsfjärdenaffairthatputPalmeonthebackfoot.ItpointedouttheUSSRasguilty.
Infact,itwouldbefairtosaythatthisparliamentaryreportchangedthewholetenorofpoliticallifein
Swedeninthe1980s.ItputthespotlightonPalme’sattemptstobuildpositiverelationswiththeSoviet
Union,andfoundthisapproachwanting.Thisthreatenedindirectlyhiswholedovishpeaceagenda.The
impliedquestionleftbythesubmarinereportwas:WhywasPalmesofriendlytotheSovietswhenthey
werecarryingoutharassmentcampaignsagainstSwedishterritory?Washenotloyaltohiscountry?And
whataboutthisnuclearfreezonestuff,whichdependedonareliableinterlocutoracrosstheBaltic?The
SovietUnionwasclearlyanaggressivepower.Allofthis,ofcourse,benefitedthepro-NATOlobbyin
Sweden.
ReportinginApril1983,theparliamentarycommissionclaimedthatsixSovietsubmarines,
minisubmarinesaswellasconventionalsubmarines,hadbeenatHårsfjärden.Butlookingcarefullyatthe
report,announcedwithfanfare,infactnoforensicevidencewaspresentedtothejournalistsorpublic.It
wasajudgmentofprobabilities,stronglyinfluencedbythecountrybelievedtohavethestrongestpolitical
motives,a“resurgent”SovietUnion.
“ThereisnotasingleobservationthatsuggeststhatthesubmarineshavecomefromNATO,”the
commissionadded.
Thecommissionsaidtheintrusionsweretotallyunacceptableandthattheyhadcontinueddespiteforceful
Swedishprotests.Thereforesuggestedatougheningupoftherulesofengagementfurtherthanthose
alreadyproposed:thecommissionsuggestedarmedattackshouldbecarriedoutwithoutpriorwarning,
againstanyfurtherunidentifiedforeignvesselslocatedinSweden’sdomesticwaters.
Assoonasthereportwaspublished,oneofthecommission’smembers,aConservativeMPcalledCarl
Bildt,wenttotheUnitedStatesandmetrepresentativesforthePentagon.Bildtwastheyoungstarofthe
Moderateparty(TheModeratesistheformalnameofSweden'sliberalconservativeparty),andhe
representedtheparty´srecentlydevelopedfascinationwithneoliberalismandThatcherism.Forthe33-
year-oldBildt,thesubmarineissuebecameacampaignplatformtorisewithinhisparty.Afewyears
downtheline,hewastobecomeitsleader,andafterthatSweden'sprimeminister.
Bildt’striptothePentagonsosoonafterlabellingtheUSSRinhisreport,onflimsyevidence,wasnot
uncontroversial.Palmemadeapublicstatement:hesaiditdamagedSweden’scredibilitythatamember
ofthesubmarinecommissioncarriedoutdiscussionswithAmericanmilitarymenjustafterareportwas
publishedthatpointedouttheUSA’sColdWarenemy.Swedenwasafterallaneutralcountrybetweenthe
twoblocs.Bildtwasaccusedoflackingasenseofresponsibilityandjudgment.Throughthemedia,Bildt
repliedthateveninthefutureheaimedtotravelwherehewishedtogowithoutaskingOlofPalmefor
permission.
AfterameetingofthebipartisanForeignAffairsCouncilmeeting,wheretheissuewaschewedover
again,BildtattackedPalmethroughanewspaperforharbouring“analmostmediaevaldesireforrevenge
againstthosewhoquestionhisjudgmentandknowledgeincertainforeignaffairsquestions.Itwasa
swinishattempttogetmetoshutup”.AccordingtoPalme’sbiographerBjornElmbrant,Palmehadbeen
extremelycalmandpoliteduringthemeeting,wishingonlytopointouttheriskstoSwedenofBildt’s
behaviour.AparliamentarycommissionhadtomaintainitsobjectivereputationifPalmehadpointedout
theUSSRonthebasisofitsreport.ThatreputationforobjectivitywasunderminedifBildtscootedoffto
Washingtontobriefandmeetwithofficialstherebeforetheinkwasevendryonthereport.
ThepoliticalconflictworsenedthenextdaywhenitemergedthatBildt,onhisWashingtontrip,hadalso
mettheCIAfortalks.
PalmegotthewholegovernmenttounitebehindacondemnationofBildt.Elmbrant,thebiographer,
speculatesthatthereasonwhyPalmegotsoangrywasthathedisagreedwithatleasttwoaspectsofthe
report.PalmewasdisappointedthatSwedennowhadtorearmtocounterthe“Sovietthreat”:This
openedupahugechasmforPalmesince,intheinternationalarena,hehadbasedhispoliticalprestigeon
thethesisofcommonsecuritybetweentheSovietUnionandtheWest,astancethatrequiredhimtotreat
bothsideswithrespect.Thatwasgonenow.
“ThesubmarinecommissionwasatorpedoagainstPalme’sinternationaldisarmamentambitions”,argues
Elmbrant.ItwasatorpedoagainstPalme’sOstpolitik,justmonthsafterHelmutSchmidt,theother
purveyorofOstpolitik,hadbeenforcedfromoffice.
Thedeedhadbeendone:PalmehadalreadysentasharplywordednoteofprotesttotheSoviet
ambassador,BorisPankin,on26April1983.The“seriouslooking”Sovietambassadorwasseenby
reportersleavingtheSwedishgovernmentchancelleryat1600aftera45minutemeetingwithPalme.He
toldSwedishjournalists,inRussian,that“itwasn’ttruethatSovietvesselshadintrudedinSwedish
territorialwaters.YoucanfindtherestofthereplyontheTASSnewswire.”MediacoverageinSweden
wasextensive,ofboththereport,thepressconferenceandtheprotestnote.Aparticularfocuswashow
thereporthadrevealedhowsubmarineintrusionshadapparentlycomeasfarasStockholm’sharbour.
SwedishmediacoveragewasinvariablyproNATOandtooktheworstpossibleviewofSovietmotives
andactions.
Thesubmarinedefencecommissionreport,andtheletterofprotesttotheSovietambassador,madenews
aroundtheworld.ManyforeignnewspapersfocusedontheweaknessesinSwedishsubmarinedefences.
Sweden’sNordicneighbours,notsurprisingly,paidthemostattentiontothenews.
TheFinnishdailyHufvudstadsbladet’seditorJanMagnusJansson,thought,however,thatitwasa
“completemysterywhytheSovietUnionthoughtitwisetoprovokeaneutralneighbourwithwhichithas
noquarrel”.HepointedoutthattheSovietrelationshipwithEurope,withParisandBerlin,hadgotalot
worse.ThatReaganwasputtingfullonpressureontheUSSR.SowhyprovokeSwedenaswell?Itcan’t
bematterofnointerestwhathappensintherelationsbetweenournearestneighbours,wrotetheHelsinki
newspaper.
TASS,theofficialSovietnewsagency,waitedadaybeforeresponding.Thendismissedtheclaimthat
therehadbeensixSovietsubmarines.“Totallygroundlessclaims.”However,theSwedishnewsagency
TT’sreporternotesthattherewasnodirectcriticismintheTASStelegramoftheSwedishgovernment,
whichwasn’tevenmentioned.TASSaimeditsverbalartilleryinsteadattheSwedishnavy,“Anti-Soviet
circles”andmassmediaasresponsibleforthesenseofcrisisinSweden.TASSthenimpliedthatthe
westerndefenceallianceNATOlaybehindthewholethinganyway.Atthesametime,theycouldalsosee
PalmewasleavingthedoorajarbytellingtheSovietgovernmenttoinstructitsnavytostopthe
violations.
IfanyonethoughtPalme'ssummoningoftheSovietambassadorandthestrongcondemnationwouldputa
stoptotheintrusions,theyweremistaken.DaysafterPalme’sprotestnotetotheSovietsinStockholm,
therewasanotherviolationofSwedishwaters:TheintrusionstartedatSundsvall,aporttowninnorthern
Sweden,ontheeveningof29April1983,“whileaSwedishvsSovieticehockeymatchwasinprogress
onTV”,asoneSwedishreporterputitacidly.
Thefirstobservationcamefromamemberofthepublic,IngridHamrin,travellingonthecoastalhighway
withhersonFredrik,9.TheysawsomethingmovingametreabovetheBalticseasurface,severaltensof
centimetresthick,andleavingbehinditawakeasitmovedsouthinparallelwiththecoastalroad.“It
musthavebeenaperiscope,”shesaid.“Wedroveslowlyandfollowedtheobjectforawhile.Iamused
tospendingtimeonthewaterandcanabsolutelysayitwasnotfloatingtimber”.Overthenexttwodays,
twodozenobservationscameinfromthepublic.BySundayevening,2May1983,anothersubmarinehunt
wasatfulltilt,thoughsonarcontacthadyetbeenmade:itwasallbasedonobservationsfromthepublic.
Afewhourslater,though,thenavyhadindicationsanddeclareditwasconvincedtherewasaforeign
submarineinthearea.Localcuriositywashigh:manyoftheinhabitantsofthetownofSundsvalltook
theircarouttothecoastalresortonislands,alongwhoseringroadthereweregoodviewsofproceedings.
Peoplehadbroughtsandwichesandthermosflasksofcoffee,andlocalbooksellersreportedhavingsold
outofmapsandnavalchartsofthearea.
Thenextdaytherewasaction:twofivehundredkilomineswereorderedtodetonatenorthofAlnöisland
nearSundsvallafterindicationsthattheminisubmarinetheSwedishnavalhelicoptersweretrackingwas
onitswayout.Oneoftheminesdetonated;theothermisfired.Thelocalcommandergotpermissionfrom
thegovernmentinaprettyshorttime,onehour,todetonatetheexplosiveswithoutwarning.Areporter
helpfullyexplainedthepowerofa500kilomine.Sixtykilosofexplosivesisenoughtodestroyahouse,
onekiloisenoughtodestroyacar.However,themysteryvessel,suspectedofbeingasingleminusubthis
time,wasfastandsmallandhardtolocate.
Thenextdayaminingcompanyhelpedputthenavybyflyingoneofitsprospectingaircraftoverthearea.
Theaeroplanewasabletodetectmagneticmaterialsunderwater,aswellasunderground.Ithadtofly5
ortenmetresabovethewatertohaveanychanceofdetectingtheforeignsubat30metresdepth,
especiallyifitwasasminisub,whichgaveoflessofamagneticindication.Theplanelandedhaving
foundnothing.
Therewasadramaticincidentwhenthelocalairport'sflightcontrollerthoughthehadinterceptedcoded
languagetothesubmarinefromitsbaseintheUSSR.Thesuppositionwaswrong;itwasactuallyan
extremerangeRussianaviationradiocommunicationfromEuropesomewhere.Butthatwastheclimactic
incident.Severalofthepatrolvesselsremainedinharbouronthatday,showingthatthehuntwaswinding
down.
Thenextday,theeleventhdayofthehunt,itwasannouncedthatitwasallover.MajorGeneralRolf
Wigur,inchargeoftheNorrlandmilitarydistrict,saiditwascompletelycleartohimthesubmarinesthey
hadchasedwereSoviet.Hetoldapressconferenceontheafternoonof10May1983.“Afterthe
Hårsfjärdenincidentwecanbasicallyexcludeothernationalities,can’twe?”
Whenpressed,headmittedtherewas“NoactualevidenceagainsttheSoviets.”Nopropellersoundsor
tracksontheseafloor.But,“ItisjustafeelingIhave,”hesaid.“TheyareSoviet.”Hesaidthathisunits
werereadytoreturntonormalconditions.WhenaskedwhetheritwasanotherfailurefortheSwedish
navy,hereplied:“Ofcourseitisafailureinthatwedidn’tachieveourobjective.
But,headded,“Itwasasuccessinthatwehavesucceededinshowingwewon’thesitatetousearmed
forcetobringupasubmarine”,hesaid.Headdedthathewasn’tsurprisedthesubmarinewasn’tbrought
up.“Itisverydifficulttogetasubmarinetosurface.Thesubmarinecaptainhasmanycardstoplay.He
hastomakemistakesforustosucceed.”
Whentheminebarrierswereexaminedbydiversafterthehuntwasover,itwasdiscoveredthattwoof
theunexplodedminesweremissing,hadbeencutloose,possiblybyfrogmenfromtheintruderside,
whichleftachannelthroughawhichanescapingsubmarinemighthavetravelled.Weretheminestaken
awaytoseehowtheyworkedbytheintrudingnation?InFebruary1984,Swedenexperiencedthenextbig
submarinehunt,whichturnedouttobethelongestofthe1980s.Itlastedseveralweeks,tookplace
outsideKarlskrona,andtheresultwasthesame:nothing.
7.Gh o sth u n tmysteryreso lv ed
ItwasacoldFebruaryeveningin2014intheOldTowninStockholmwhenIfoundmyselfsittingina
pubwithAndersHasselbohm,ajournalistwho,thirtyyearsearlier,in1984,brokethestorythatthesubs
atHårsfjärdenwerenotSoviet.Grey-haired,crew-cutandlean,hehadasharpandpenetrating
personality;hehadbeenawinnerofSweden’sbiggestjournalismprize–backin1976.Thatwasbefore
hisinvestigationsintothesubmarineaffair,whichmadehimpersonanongratainSweden.
AjournalistwithDagensIndustri,Sweden’sequivalentoftheFinancialTimes,Hasselbohmpublisheda
numberofarticlesinMarch1983queryingtheofficialHårsfjärdenstory,whichhadgivenadditional
supportfromtheconclusionbyBildtandtherestofhissubmarinecommission,andimmediatelygotalot
offlakforit.Ayear’sintenseresearchlater,hepublishedabookbasedonthethesispresentedinhis
articles.
Hasselbohm’squestbeganwhen,aftertheHårsfjärdenincident,hemetaScandinavianmilitarycontactto
tryandfindoutwhathadreallyhappened.Hewasahigh-ranking,verydutifulofficerwhoknewwhat
wasgoingonandlookedatHasselbohmseriouslyandsaid:“Itisnottruewhatthemilitaryleadership
aresaying.Theyarehidingimportanttruths.”Bildtandthesubmarinecommissionwerenottellingthe
truth.ThesubmarinescamefromtheWest,theyweren’tSoviet.TheanonymousSwedishnavalofficer
wasfrightened,worried,nolongerproudtobeaSwedishofficer.Fromthatmoment,Hasselbohmspent
allhistimediggingintotheaffair,readingbooksandscholarlyjournals,talkedtodivers,ship’scaptains,
staffofficers,technicians,scientists,admirals,colonelsandsubmarinemanufacturers,bothinSweden
andabroad.Hemadesevenforeigntrips.
Hisconclusion:therewasatleastoneNATOsubmarineinHårsfjärden.Maybemore.Severalinsiders
knewthetruth,and,underthecoverofanonymity,gaveHasselbohmleads.
HasselbohmquotedunnamedsourcesfromaNATOcountrywithcontactsintheSwedishmilitarywho
saidthehuntstartedwhenasubmarineonitswayintoHårsfjärdenwasspottedbyconscripts.Onesaw
thetopofaperiscopeandanothersawamast.Thisconventionalsubmarinelefttheareaandlaytorest
outsidetheDanzigerGatt,thestraitswhichlinkthearchipelagototheopenBalticSea.On11October
1982itwasdamaged,butnotveryseriously.AweeklateritwasescortedoutoftheBalticthroughthe
OresundstraitsseparatingDenmarkandSwedenbyanotherWesternsubmarine.
Doingso,itpassedunderneaththeOresundstraits,thenarrowstretchofwaterbetweenSwedenand
DenmarkthatlinkedtheBaltictotheNorthSea.ThetwoNATOsubmarinestravelledveryclosetoeach
otherandunderthesurfacetotryandconcealthatonewasdamagedandwheretheycamefrom.Another
sourcesaid:“TheSwedeshadmorethansoundsasevidence.Theyhadseveralbitsofevidencein
combination.Theymightevenhaveseenthesubmarine.”
AnothersourcewasaNorwegianofficerwhosaidthatNorway’sleadingcommandershadbeeninthe
countryforavisitandorderedNorwegiansubmarineexperts–NATO’sbestexpertsonsubmarinesasit
happensbecauseofNorway'sgeographicallocation–tocomeandanalysetheSwedishtapes.The
NorwegianstookthesonarrecordingswiththemtoNorway.Theirexpertisewasextraordinary:theywere
evencapableoftellingindividualsubmarinesofthesamedesignapart.Threeweekslatertheygavethe
answer:thesubmarineharassingSwedishforces–and,ineffect,destabilisingSwedishforeignpolicy-
camefromawesterncountry,aNATOcountry.
Havinggotwitnesstestimoniesthatpointedinanotherdirection,Hasselbohmsetaboutdismantlingthe
forensicevidenceforSovietsubmarines,whichthesubmarinecommissionhadprovidedinaseparate
memo,andtalkedaboutinmediainterviewsafterwards.Oneimportantpieceofevidence,allegedly,
presentedtojournalistsbycommissionmembersaftertheofficialreportwaspublished–theofficial
reportbeingconspicuouslylackinginactualevidence-wasthattherewerekeelmarksfoundinthemud.
AndthatonlyWarsawpactsubmarineshadkeels.OneofthemembersofthesamecommissionasBildt,
navychiefofstaffBrorStefenson,inSeptember1983,toldStockholmsTidningennewspaperthatthekeel
printsprovedthatthesubmarinecamefromtheWarsawpact.
SvenAndersson,theSocialDemocratwhoheadedtheparliamentarycommission,who,despitebeinga
SocialDemocrat,wasananti-Sovietbrother-in-armswithBildt,said,inresponsetoaninterviewerthat
oneofthestrongestbitsofevidencethatthesubmarineswereSoviet,wasthekeelprintsinthemudonthe
seafloor:ifithadakeel,thatindicateditwasaWhiskeysubmarine.
However,Hasselbohmshowedthatmanyothersubmarineshavekeels,asanycheckthroughJane’sThe
World’sFightingShipscouldhavetoldthelargelypro-NATOSwedishjournalistcorps,iftheyhad
botheredtocheck.KeeledconventionalsubmarinesincludedBritishOberonandPorpoiseclasssubs.
FrenchsubsoftheNarwhalandDaphneclass.Sowesternsubscouldnotbeexcluded.Thecommission’s
membershadsimplymadeuptheanswerwhentalkingtojournalists,whenexplainingthejustificationfor
pointingouttheSoviets.CarlBildtandcoweresayingtheexactoppositeofthetruth.
AnotherbitofforensicevidencethatguidedtheparliamentarycommissioninitspointingouttheSoviets
wasthepropellerindications.Oneofthecommission’stechnicalexperts,SvenHellman,asenior
engineer,wasinterviewedbythemainstreamSwedishmediainMay1983.Hesaid:“Anumberof
indicationspointedtotheSovietUnion.ProofnumberoneisthefactthatNATOsubmarinesonlyhaveone
propeller.Sovietshavetwo.”
Hasselbohmtoldmethatwhatasubmarinelookslikeattherearisoneofitsbiggestsecrets.Andeven
expertsfinditdifficulttosayifcertainsubshavekeelsunlesstheycangetholdofpicturesofthesubsina
drydockorbylookingatatechnicaldrawing.Howeveraftertalkingtoexpertsanddoinghisown
research,backin1983.HasselbohmdiscoveredthatBritishsubmarinesoftheOberonandPorpoiseclass
alsohadtwopropellers.Aswell,asearlierestablished,askeels.
SodidtheDutchPotvisandDolfijnclasssubmarines.FrenchsubmarinesintheDaphneclasshavetwo
propellers.Francehadninesuchsubs.Andtheyalsohadkeels.Sobasedonjustthesetwobitsof
evidence–thatthesubmarinesatHårsfjärdenhadakeelandtwopropellers-itsuggestedthatthe
submarineswereWestern.
YetanotherclaimbytheBildt-dominatedcommissionwasthatonlytheWarsawPacthadminisubsand
theWestdidnot.SothatwaswhytheintrusionhadtobeSoviet,andnotNATO.Someofthetracksonthe
seabedafterthehunt,filmedbySwedishdivers,suggestedthatminisubshadbeeninthearea.But
Hasselbohm’sresearchprovedthatthewestdidindeedhaveminisubs.
HasselbohmcontinuedpickingtheBildtcommissionapart.Thequestionabouttheoriginofthe
submarinesoverandoveragainhadcentredonthefactthattheSovietshavethelargestnumberof
submarinesintheBaltic,over50.WhilePolandhad4,WestGermany24andDenmark6.Butthe
commissionleftoutthefollowinginformation.AnenormousnumberofNATOvesselswereparticipating
intwohugeNATOexercisesintheBalticcalledNorthernWeddingandBoldGuard!Thatwasnear
Hårsfjärden,andatthetimeofHårsfjärden,yettheSwedishmediakeptcompletelyquietaboutit!
TheBildt/Anderssoncommissionreporttalkedaboutthe“growingexpansionofharbourcapacity”taking
placeintheBalticportsandthe“extensive”navalandlandingexercisesfromtheWarsawpactside.They
saidnotawordaboutthefactthattheNATOsidehad,justafewdaysbeforetheexercisesatHårsfjärden
carriedoutsomeofthelargestnavalexercisesanywhere,NorthernWeddingtookplaceinthecentral
Baltic,justmilesawayfromHårsfjärden,from6to17September.ThereweredozensofNATOships,
someofwhichcouldeasilyhaveprovidedsupportfortheHårsfjärdenoperation,outintheBalticatthe
timeoftheoperation–neitherSwedishjournalistsnortheSwedishnavyhadsaidawordofthisatthe
timetothepublic!
TheBritishofficialreportStatementonDefenceEstimates1983hadthistosayaboutNorthernWedding
NATOoperationintheBalticin1982.“Tennationsparticipatedinoneofthelargestnavalexercisesever
carriedout.ItwasconductedinanareastretchingfromtheAtlantictotheBalticandcoveredanumberof
navyactivitiesincludingaviationoperationsfromaircraftcarriers,operationswithreinforcement
convoysfromtheBaltic,operationstocontroltheBalticsinandoutlets,submarineoperationsandnaval
landingsonJutland.”
HasselbohmhadwrittenacrackerofabookthatraisedquestionsabouttheBildt/Andersson
parliamentaryreportthathadputPalmeinsuchpoliticaltrouble.BildtandhisthreefellowMPshadsaid
therewereSovietsubmarinesatHårsfjärden.Palmehadbeenforcedintoaharshdiplomaticprotest
againsttheSovietsandhispeaceprojectwasintatters.ButHasselbohmshowedthattheirreasoningwas
wrong,theirevidencewasfaultyandthatBildtandAnderssonhadnoprooffortheirconclusioninthe
reportthatthesubmarineswereSoviet.Further,basedonmilitarywitnesseswhofearedfortheircareers,
HasselbohmwrotethatthesubmarinesatHårsfjärdenactuallycamefromNATO.Theyweren'tSovietat
all.WasHasselbohmtreatedasatruthtellinghero?
Quitetheopposite.CriticismofHasselbohmwashuge.Whenhisbookcameoutinearly1984,his
informationaboutwesternsubmarineswascitedwidelyinnewspapers,televisionandradio.Butafter
that,“theslaughter”ofhisfactsstarted,fromhighrankingofficersandCarlBildt.BrorStefenson,the
chiefofdefencestaff,whohadbeenoneofthecommandersontheSwedishsideatHårsfjärden,toldthe
SwedishnewsagencyTTthatitwasstrangethatHasselbohm,whohad“workedsothoroughlyonthe
subject”,andwhoseeminglyhadawholeintelligenceagencybehindhim,couldgetitsowronginsome
aspects.
Stefensonsaiditwas“alwayspossibletorefertovarious‘unnamedsources’butinabigworklikethisit
wasstrangethatnosourcewasevermentionedbyname.”
BildtsaidHasselbohmwas“makingmountainsoutofmolehills”andthat“therewasnothingnew
comparedtowhathepublishedthepreviousspring.”
Commentinglaterontheeventsofthe1980s,Hasselbohmwrote:“Thesewerebaddaysforpress
freedominSweden”.HesaidCarlBildtwroteanopinionpieceunderthetitle“Hasselbohmwishesto
castdoubts”;“OfcourseBildtmeantIwaswritinginsuchanwayastoalignmyselfwiththeinterestsof
aforeignpower”,Hasselbohmwrotelater.Bildtwasimplying,inotherwords,thatHasselbohmwas
runningtheUSSR’serrands.
Anticipatingcriticism,Hasselbohmhad,beforethebookwaspublished,invitedthepeoplecompromised
inhisbooktostatetheircaseandproveHasselbohmwrong.HehadaskedtomeetCarlBildttoaskhimif
hewaswrongatanypoint.
Hewaspreparedtoshowhowhehadworked,wherehiswitnessesstoodondifferent
issuesandthelargenumberofcorroborativetestimonies.CarlBildthadsaidhecouldn’tanswerany
questionsonthecommissionreportwhichwascomingoutamonthlater.WhenHasselbohmtoldhim
aboutthemysteriouspassageofsubmarinesaweekaftertheincidentatHårsfjärden,Bildtsaid:
“Therehasn’tbeenanypassageofasubmarineorsubmarinesthroughÖresund.”
Hasselbohmsaidhewas100%suretheexithadtakenplacesincehehadfiveindependentsourcesforthe
event.Ofcourse,ifthedamagedsubmarineexitedviaÖresund,outintoKattegatandtheNorthSea,it
meantthatitshomeportwassomewheretotheWest–eg,theUK–andnottheEast.
Bildtreplied:
“Ithasn’thappened.”
Hasselbohmsaidhewascompletelysureandwaspreparedtorevealthelevelatwhichhisinformants
sat.
Bildtsaid:“Okay,butIdon’tknowanythingaboutit.OfcourseitmighthavehappenedandIwasn’ttold
aboutit.Butitdoesn’tmatter,passageornopassage,itwon’tchangemypictureofwhathappenedat
Hårsfjärden.Weinthecommissionknowwhathashappened.Weknowwhowasintherewiththeir
submarines.IknowyouarewrongwhenyoutellmeasubmarinefromNATOwasthere.”Bildtwasso
sureofhimselfhedidn’ttakeinanythingHasselbohmsaidatall.
HasselbohmprotestedandsaidthatdidBildtnotthinksuchanoccurrenceworthyofnote?
Bildtreplied:“Ourpictureissoclearitwon’tbealteredbywhateverhappenedatÖresund.”Butwhatif
therewasmoreinformationwhichhedidnotknowaboutbuthadhappened?
“Ourindicationsaresonumerousandpointsoobviouslyandclearlyinonedirectionwecan’tbe
budged.”
ThefutureprimeministerofSwedensnappedhisbriefcaseshutandsaidgoodbye.Hewasabouttogoto
Madridtoattendasecurityconferencethere.WhenHasselbohmlaterphonedforacommenton
informationthatatleastoneofthesubmarineswasfromNATOheanswered:“Thatiswrong.There
wasn’tanyNATOsubthere.”
AfterthefurorearoundHasselbohm’sbookdieddown,Hasselbohmreflectedalittleonthenatureof
journalism.MorethansixhundredforeignSwedishandforeignjournalistsassembledasguestsofthe
SwedishnavyatBerga.Theywere,Hasselbohmreflectedlater,“trulyembedded”.Theytookincarefully
selectedfactsandmoodmusicfromthecountry’snavalleadershipwhichmadeitimpossiblefor
journalistsandatoneextension,thepublicandpoliticians,tothinkindependently,torecognisethatitwas
somethingelsethanSovietsubmarines.(EventhoughtheadmittedSovietintrusiontheyearbeforemay
haveledthemtothinkalongthoselines.)
Lookingbackonthis,Hasselbohmrealisedthatbeingatruthtellerdidnotmakehimpopular.Helost
friends.Hismotherwasostracisedbyneighbours,HehadtogoabroadandliveinCyprusbecauseofthe
enormouspressurefromtheauthorities,backedupmostofthemedia,whomhesaid“actedasparrotsof
themilitary”who“hadn’tdonetheirownresearch.”IttookhimyearsbeforehecouldreturntoSweden
andpickuphiscareerasaninvestigativejournalist.(Hecontinueddoingscoopsonothertopicsinthe
1990sand2000s.)
AfterorderinganotherpintforthetwoofusthatcoldFebruaryeveninginthecosyIrishpubion
StockholminFebruary2014,HasselbohmtoldmethatatleastoneofPalme'sharshestmediacritics,one
ofthemostrabidmembersoftheStockholmnationalmediapack–andwhoconnectedthesubmarine
intrusionswithPalme's“proSovietism”-wasprobablyapaidCIAagent.Thismanwasalsofamousfor
marshallinganumberofservingSwedishnavalofficerstowritealettertoanewspaper–thenewspaper
ofwhichhewaspoliticaleditor,incidentally-thatexpressedalackofconfidencefromtheSwedish
NavyinOlofPalme'spremiership.ThismanlaterbecameCarlBildt'spresssecretary.
Intruth,notallSwedishpoliticianshadbeenpersuadedoftheSwedishNavy’sandtheparliamentary
commission’sclaimthatthesubmarinesatHårsfjärdenhadbeenSoviet.AfterPalmehadbeengiven
veryshortadvancenoticeoftheBildtreport’scontent,Palme’sforeignministerLennartBodströmand
Palme’sjusticeministerOveRainerarguedincabinetthattheindicationsagainsttheSovietUnionwould
notholdinacourtoftrial.Thedefenceminister,AndersThunborg,wasalsosceptical.Butpressurefrom
themediaandSwedishnavyforcedthenamingoftheSovietUnion.Intheminutesfromapartymeeting,
thatoftheSocialDemocrats’executivecommitteeinMay1983,showedthatPalmeandlaterforeign
ministerStenAndersson,believedthatthesubmarineshadbeenSoviet,butnoevidencehadbeen
presentedforit.Andtheycouldn’tfathomwhytheUSSRpersistedwiththeseoperations,asMoscowhad
nothingtogainfromitpolitically.OlofPalme’sSwedenwasoneoftheUSSR’sfewfriendsintheWest.
TheSovietscontinuedtodenytheoperations.TheSovietUnioncategoricallydeniedsendingin
submarines;theSwedishgovernmentwastippedoffthatSovietsubmarineshadbeeninstructedbythe
Politburotostay30kmoutsidetheterritorialline.ASovietdiplomattoldthenewsagencyTT,on
conditionofanonymity,thatthereweremembersoftheSwedishmilitarywhohadconsciouslyfalsified
informationtothesubmarinecommission.Fewnewspaperspublishedtheinterview.TheSovietswere
notregardedastrustworthy.TheSwedishmilitarylying?TheSovietstellingthetruth?Unthinkable!
InJune1983,whenFinnishpresidentKoivistowasonastatevisittoMoscow,theSovietsaskedhimto
passontotheSwedishgovernmentthattheywishedtoexaminetheevidenceoftheparliamentary
submarinecommissionforthemselves;alternativelythataSwedishSovietinternationalindependent
expertgroupshouldbesetupontheissuetofindoutthetruefacts.TheSovietscalledtheSwedish
accusationsinthematter“mythmaking”.NoneofthesuggestionswasacceptedbytheSwedishside.On
thesameoccasion,SovietpresidentAndropovaskedKoivistotopassonthemessagetoPalmethatthe
Swedescould,withoutfurtherado,sinkanyforeignsubmarineinSwedishwatersiftheywished.
AndropovtoldKoivistototelltheSwedes:“Justbombthem”.IfthesewereSovietsubmarines,the
Sovietleaderwas,justtospellthingsout,unlikelytosaytheyshouldbebombed.Hewasobviously
signallingtheywereNATOsubmarines.
Aswehavealreadyseen,thebiggestconsequenceofthe1983officialsubmarinereportwasthatPalme
feltpressuredtowriteaprotestnotetotheSovietUnion.WhenajournalistcamealongandprovedBildt
wrongandPalmeright,saidjournalistwasostracisedfromSwedishpubliclife.
Hasselbohm,fortunately,wasnottheonlytruthteller:hisworkwaspickedupbyaprofessorinOslo
calledOlaTunander.
WhenImethiminOslorecently,OlaTunanderlookedthearchetypeofthedistractedprofessor.Heisin
hissixties,hiswhitehairsproutsinalldirections,andheisgiventoblinkingfastbehindperched
spectacles,helaughsquicklyandeasilywhenanewconnectioninthesubmarineaffairispointedoutto
him.ASwedishnational,Tunanderhasheldatenuredresearchprofessor’spositionatOslo’s
prestigiousPeaceResearchInstitute(PRIO)formanyyears.Hisperch,awayfromSweden,giveshiman
academicindependencethatmanySwedishdefenceacademics,associatedwiththeSwedishDefence
researchinterests,arguablydon’thave.Hehaswrittenmanybooksonthesubmarineintrusionsinto
Swedishwatersinthe1980s.HearguestheywereamassiveUK/USdisinformationcampaignaimedat
destroyingOlofPalme..
TunanderreadHasselbohm’smaterialintheeighties,whenhewasayoungacademicresearcheroncold
wardefenceissuesrelatingtoNorthernEurope.Hasselbohm’sviewsdifferedfromTunander’satthe
time.Butintime,TunandercametoalignhisviewswithHasselbohm.Tunander“pickedupthebaton”.
Tunanderhassincespentacareer(alongwithmuchotherwork),pursuingtheNATOtrail,oftenagainst
theextremehostilityofCarlBildtandtheSwedishnavyofficersactiveinthe1980ssubmarine
operations.
Tunandersaidthesesubmarineoperationswerelike“Terroristattacks.Someoneisdoingitandyouare
notsurelyexactlywhoisdoingit.”ThevastmajorityofSwedesbelievedtheywereSoviet.
“Submarinesareverygoodwayforaforeignpowertosendsignalstoastate,”saidTunander.
Thesignals“theSovietUnion”seemedtobesendingwere.“Beafraidofus”.
Swedishnewsorganisationspublishedwartimeheadlinesontheintrusions.Itwasasifnothingelsewas
goingonintheworld.TheSovietpressresponsewaswhetherignoredordismissed.SowereSoviet
attemptsatrapprochement.Soforinstance,aSovietoffertowithdrawallitssubmarinesfromtheBaltic
tocalmtheSwedeswasseenasaruse.
ThefactthatthesubswereneverbroughtupfosteredsuspicionsinsomecirclesthatPalme–orsomeone
-waslettingthemgo.LarsHansson,thelieutenantcolonelinchargeofcoastaldefences,saidthatthe
intruderseemedtoknowalotaboutSwedishwaters,andSwedishdefenceplanning.Hesaidmanyinthe
militaryagreedwithhim,andhisonlyconclusionwasthattherehadtobealeak–somewhere.Someone
wholeakedtotheSovietUnion,whothenusedtheinformationtoprobeSweden'sweaknesses.Wasthere
aSovietspyattheverytop?WasitPalmehimself?
Afteryearsofhisownresearch,TunandercametothesameconclusionasHasselbohm:Thesubmarine
intruderswereAmericanandBritish-takingadvantageofthefacteveryonewouldthinktheywereSoviet
onthebasisthattheidentityoftheU137WhiskeydowninKarlskronatheyearbefore.Itwasan
operationbythem,aimedatSwedenandtheSwedishgovernment.AndwithsomeseniorSwedish
militarycommanders’connivance.Hasselbohmhadbeenabsolutelyright.
Itwasadeceptionoperation,whereelementsoftheSwedishmilitarywascomplicitwithNATOagainst
theirowngovernment.Palmewasthevictimofasetupacovertpsychologicaloperation.
WhenOlaTunanderstartedhisacademiccareer,inthe1980s,asaresearcherofthehistoryoftheCold
WarinScandinavia,hesayshebelievedthestandardstory.InhisundergraduateEnglish-language
textbookontheColdWarinNorthernEurope,ColdWarPolitics–USMaritimeStrategyonthe
NorthernFront,heassumed,likeeveryoneelse,thattheintrusionswereSoviet.
Healsocouldn’tseethepointofwidespreadwesternactivity.Hisbookwasarespectedtextinthefield
internationally.Itrecitedthestandardstory,thatallthesubsintrudinginSwedishwaterswereSoviet.He
wasnotawareofHasselbohm’sworkatthetime,orhadgivenitonlyglancingattention.
TunandergavetalksintheUS:attheUSNavalWarcollegeinAnnapolis;thelecturer,DonDaniels,told
Tunanderhisbookwasusedascourseliterature.TunanderalsotalkedatthePentagonandtaughtattheUS
NavalPostgraduateSchoolinMonterrey.Hismessagewasthesame:theSovietshadbeentheaggressors
inthesubsaffair.Afterall,theSovietshadinvadedAfghanistan,anothercountryonitsperiphery,just
threeyearsbefore.
Bythelate1980s,thoughhereadHasselbohm’sbook.Hasselbohmhadbecomeanon-personinSweden
butTunanderfound,aftersomereflection,hishypothesisdaringandsomeofhisallegationswell
supported.
Ataboutthistime,thenewlyappointedheadoftheSwedishSignalsAgency,FRA,admittedinSwedenin
alettertotheSwedishdefenceministrythatinfacttherewasnoevidenceforclaimsabouttheelectronic
signalscomingfromthevesselsontheSovietfrequencyasputforwardbyhispredecessorandusedas
oneofthebitsofevidenceintheparliamentarycommissionofwhichBildtwasapart.Thatwasthefinal
nailinthecoffin.Whenempiricalevidenceforthe1983pointingoutwascalledfor,thatwasusually
citedinfavouroftheSoviethypothesis,afterthekeelandpropellersevidencehadbeendiscredited.
AswesitoverpapersandcoffeesattheOsloRadissonlobby,Tunandertellsmeherememberedgivinga
presentationaboutthisinnorthernNorwaytoapost-ColdWarsymposiumcontainingdelegatesfromboth
sides.ThiswasatimewhenhestillbelievedtheofficialstoryputoutbyBildtandothers.Atthis
particularconference,oneRussianadmiralNikolaiArnelkogavehima20minuteangryreplytoaremark
aboutSovietsubmarineintrusionsinSwedishwaters;Tunanderadmitshedidnottakehimseriously,
whichenragedArnelkoevenfurther.Intime,thoughTunandersidedwiththeRussians–andtheRussian
versionofwhathadhappened–andthismadehimtheenemynumber1oftheSwedishmilitary-naval
establishment.Hestillis.
Hehashisgesturewhereheadjustshisglassesasherelateswithadrylaugh,thelatestactof
unbelievablehostilityfromretiredSwedishnavalofficers,writingthroughtheircontactsinthenational
press,aboutthe“conspiracytheoristOlaTunander”.Hesaidthat,asawellregardedacademic
researcherinthe1980s,hecouldn’timaginehewouldonedaybediscreditedandmarginalisedjust
becausehehadfound“interestingacademicmaterial”.
WithinayearofbeingdresseddownbyArnelkoforpromotingthe“USSRwasresponsiblethesis”ata
post-coldwarconference,Tunanderhadhisbigconversion.Theyearwas1993.Ittookplaceonalong
cartripbackfromanotherpost-ColdWarconferenceinNorwayinthecompanyofJamesSchlesinger,
formerUSSecretaryofDefenseandformerCIAchief.
Therewasthesharedcamaraderieoftwomeninacar.Perhapstheconfessioncameafteralullinthe
conversation,afteramomentofsilenceastheybothstaredpasttheredlitdashboard.Tongueshadbeen
loosenedattheconferencebetweenformerenemies,therehadbeenanatmosphereoftrust.Perhapsit
wastimetosettletheaccountsandclosethebooks:whateverthereason,CIAchiefSchlesingerdecided
toadmittoTunanderthataUSsubmarinehadbeendamagedatHårsfjärdenin1982.Schlesingerhad
alwaysbeenoneofthemoredynamicCIAchiefs:HebecamesounpopularatCIAHeadquartersin
Langley,Virginia,duringhistenurethatasecuritycamerahadtobeinstalledoppositehisofficialportrait
becauseoffearsthatitwouldbevandalized.Aneconomistanddefenceintellectual,Schlesingerhadbeen
recruitedfromoutsidetheespionagebusinessin1972byNixontoshakeupthespyagency.TimWeiner,
ajournalistandspyspecialist,writesinhishistoryoftheCIA,thatSchlesingerhad“noparticularliking
fortheCIA”.HewasdeterminedtocutoutthedeadwoodfromtheCIAandproceededtodoso.
Schlesingerhadbeen“incredulous”atthevariousactivitiescarriedoutbytheCIAdomesticallyandin
contraventionofitscharter,whichbanneddomesticspying.TheburglarswhobrokeintotheWatergate
complexalsoburgledanti-warstatedepartmentofficialDanielEllsberg’spsychiatrist.Shortlyafter
findingout,SchlesingertoldaSenateAppropriationsCommitteetodeclarefreshcontrolsontheCIA.
TheSchlesingerdirectivenotonlyprohibitedalldomesticoperations,itorderedall“senior
operatingofficialsofthisAgencytoreporttomeimmediatelyonanyactivitiesnowgoingon,orwhat
havegoneoninthepast,whichmightbeconstruedtobeoutsidethelegislativecharteroftheagency.”
Schlesinger’sdirectiveledinexorablytoaseriesofcongressionalinvestigationsandatighteningoverthe
reinsofAmericanintelligence.
Whilehewasnolongerspychief,Schlesingerstillhadnumerous
contactsandconnectionstoUSintelligence.Herewasaveryimportantsourcebackingupwhatthe
ostracisedHasselbohmhadalleged.ThatthesewereNATOsubmarinesattackingSwedishwaters.
AftertheSchlesingertip-off,Tunandermadecontactsatdinnersafterinternationalpost-ColdWar
conferencestobuildupapicture.HewasbasedinOslo.OslowasNATO’snorthernheadquarters.He
spoketoseveralBritishformersubmarinecaptainswhosaiditwasn’tonlyAmericansubs,butBritish
ones.Andtheiractivitiesareperhapsevenlesswellknown,evenaftertheflurryofpost-ColdWar
revelations.Itwasn’tcalledtheSilentServicefornothing.OnerecentBritishbookontheBritish
SubmarineService’scoldwaroperations–whichdidnotmentiontheSwedishoperationswithaword,
unsurprisingly–said,“MuchofwhattheRoyalNavy’ssubmarineshaveachievedhasneverbeenput
downonpaper”.Indeed…
TheBritishwereknownforbeingmoredaringthantheAmericans,notplayingbytherules.Butalsomore
secretive.
“Wehadgoodfuninyourwaters!”oneseniorBritishsubmarineofficertoldTunander.Anothersenior
officerwasmoredefensive.Helookedoverandsaidinatoneofvoicewhereyoucouldn'ttellwhether
quitewhetheritwasmeantinjestornot.“Don'tpeoplefallinfrontofabussometimes?”Andturnedhis
backonhim.HisnamewasJamesEberle,formerCommanderinchiefNavalhomecommand.
Tunanderthoughtaboutitinacoolandanalyticalfashion,forcedhimselftotakeoffthegogglesofanti-
SovietprejudicehesharedwithmostpeopleintheWest.Whenhereallythoughtcarefullyaboutit,
withoutprejudice,asitwere,itmadesense.Afterall,thewesternallieshadjustasmuchinterestin
pokingaroundinBalticandSwedishwatersastheBear.
ItisnotasiftheRussianswerenotinterestedinSwedenatall,atleastaccordingtotheSwedishspy
agencies.
MembersofthegeneralpublicoftencalledinatSäpo’sofficeswithreportsofarticulatedlorrieswith
Sovietregistrationplatesparkedinoutofthewayplaces…thatjusthappenedtobenearradardomes,or
airfields,ormilitarygarrisons.
Tunanderdoesn’tdenytheSovietsdidhaveanyinterestinSweden:Soviet-registeredTIRtrucks
travelledaroundtheoddestplacesinSweden,probablysomethingtodowiththecalibrationofnuclear
missiles.Heretherewasanasymmetrycomparedtothosewholatergainsaidhim.Butonthespecific
matterofthesubmarineoperationsatHårsfjärden–thesewereNATO.
Further,theWesthadamotivetomakeitsoperationsveryobvious,totesttheSwedes,andprovokethem
intoanti-Sovietattitudes.TheUSSRdidnothavethesamemotivetointimidate.Atthetime,theSoviet
Unionseemedlikeathreateningmonolith.Inretrospect,aftertheUSSR’seconomicandpolitical
collapse,thetruthhasemergedandwehavemuchbetterinsightsintoSovietleaderslikeLeonid
Brezhnev’sandYuriAndropov’sanxieties.
TherewasanargumentamongsomethatUSSRwasnolongerthewickedStaliniststateofthefifties,nor
eventheconfidentBrezhnevitestateoftheseventieswithanexpandingbluewaternavythattriedtoflex
itsmuscleagainstitsneighboursthrough“finlandisation”-asUSdefenceintellectualswouldhaveit-but
adefensivecountryonthecuspofchange,thoughnooneknewthatin1983-85:avastandchaoticcountry
whoseeconomywascrumblingandwhereapostwargenerationwerebeginningtoquestiontheirregime
andwhetherwasanyfuturealongtheCommunistpath.Gorbachev,twoyearsawayfrompower,wasto
symbolisetheaspirationsofthatgeneration,thesixtiesgeneration,theshestdyesatniki,theRussianswho
hadcomeofageduringtheirownrelativethawintheSixties,andhadrisenthroughtheinstitutionsand
wereinpositionstopowernow–todosomethingaboutit.Theywerefedupwiththecoldwarandlike
Gorbachev,wantedtojoinEurope.Forthem,Palmewasaninspiration,ahero,notsomeonetobe
underminedbysendingsubmarinesintohiscountry'swaters.
TheSoviets’bigproblemsatthetimewerethegrowthoftheSolidaritymovementinPolandand
America’splanstoestablishmediumrangenuclear-missilesinGermany.Tunander’sargumentisthatthe
lastthingtheSovietUnionwasinterestedinwasprovokingahithertoquietandfriendlycountryonits
periphery–namelySweden-intodiehardhostility,especiallyasitwoulddamagefatallytheUSSR’s
credibility.TheSovietsproposedaninternationalcommissiontoresolvethesubmarineintrusionsalready
in1983,whileSovietdiplomatscursedthebiasesoftheSwedishnavytoanySwedishjournalistwho
wouldlisten.Theproblemwasthatnonewouldlisten,andtheSovietproposalwasseenasjustaploy,a
cynicalwaytoevaderesponsibility.ThepropagandalosstotheSovietswastotal.AndPalmepaidthe
pricetoo.
TunanderhadintegritytogoagainsttheferventRussophobiaofnearlyallhisSwedishhistorian
colleagues,includingwellrespectedhistorianssuchasKristianGerner,whohadinternational
reputations.ButherewassomethingelsethatmadeTunandersuspicious.Americanofficialdomwas
quiet,andthiswashighlysuspect–later,whenTunanderlookedatit.Whyweretheysosilent,whydid
theynotcondemntheSovietUnionastheyusuallydidwhentheUSSRasserteditself?Tunanderstarted
lookingatAmericansources.Forexample,theAmericanCongressHouseofArmedServicesCommittee
briefingsabouttheSovietmaritimethreat.ThebriefingswentintodetailaboutSovietnavalactivity
worldwidefortheyearof1982,theHårsfjärdenincident–Cuba,Libya,Syria.ButnothingonSweden.If
theydidn’tbelievetheSwedishreportstheywouldhaveprobablysetthisout.AsTunanderputsit,a
moveonNATO’snorthernflank,ifitwasserious,wouldhaveledtostrongUSreactions.Andtherewas
noconceivablereasonfortheUSNavytoconcealSovietactivitiesinSwedishwaters.Theydidn’t
mentiontheactivities–unlessofcourseitwasnotSovietactivities,butcovertAmericanandNATO
activities.
AnAmericansourceconfirmedtohimthatoneoftheUSsubsinvolvedhadbeenanItalian-builtminisubs;
andtheonlysubmarinefittingthatdescription,Tunanderfound,puttingthepiecestogether,wasaclassof
23to27metrelongvesselsoftheItalianCosmosclass.OneoftheBritishsubmarines,the88metreHMS
Porpoise,isdescribedinonehistoryofsubmarinesas“performingexcellentlyinclandestineoperations,
suchassurveillanceandinsertingspecialforces”.Itwasprobablythesubthatwasbombedon11
October1982bySwedishforcesandhadtobeescortedoutoftheBalticviaÖresundaweeklater.Ifso,
thatrepresentsanincidentmoredramaticthananythingmadepublicbytheRoyalNavyduringtheentire
Coldwar.Anditwasn’ttheSovietUnion’shuntersubmarines,buttheneutralSwedishnavythathad
damagedaBritishsubmarine.
8 .Ad missio n san d d en ials
Allthroughthisperiod,Bildt,andanumberofnavalofficers,continuedtodenythatwesternvesselsever
intrudedinSwedishwaters.In2000,however,therewasanothernailinthecoffinforthisstance,which
wouldrequireallofBildt'sverbaltalentstoexplainaway.SwedishtelevisioninterviewedCaspar
Weinberger,theformerUSsecretaryfordefence.OneoftheleadinghawksintheReaganadministration,
acloseassociateofthelikesofCIAchiefBillCasey,WeinbergerisbestknowninBritainastheleading
AnglophilewhoensuredtheAdministrationdidallitcouldtohelpBritainovertheFalklandswarthat
sameyear,1982,asthemysterioussubmarineintrusionsintoSweden.
HetoldSwedishTVontherecordthatUSsubmarinescarriedouttrainingmissionsinSwedishwaters
regularly.TheseareWeinberger'sexactwords,onSwedishtelevision(interviewedinretirementinhis
officeinWashington,in2000).WorthquotinginfullbecausesomanyinSweden,ontheDeepStateside,
deniedthatWeinbergerhadreallymeantthatNATOsubmarineswereinSwedishwaters.Hereis
Weinberger:
“IfforexampleSwedenwouldhavesaidthatyoumustnothaveanyintrusionsofthatareainthismonth
thatwouldcertainlyhavebeenhonouredandrespectedbyNATO...WhatIamsayingisthatatnotime,to
myknowledge,didNATOsimplysendasubmarinedirectlyintoSwedishwaterswithoutconsultations
andpriordiscussionsandagreementsthatthatcouldbedone.Underthosecircumstances,itwasnota
pressingproblem.ItwaspartofaroutineregularscheduledseriesofdefencetestingthatNATOdidand
indeedhadtodotoberesponsibleandliable...[The“WhiskeyontheRocks”]wasaclearviolation,and
submarinescangetinwheretheyarenotwanted,andthatisexactlywhywemadethisdefensivetesting
andthesedefensivemaneuverstoassurethattheywouldnotbeabletodothatwithoutbeingdetected.
Thatparticularsubmarine[theWhiskeyontheRocks]wasquitevisibletoeverybody,anditwasexactly
thekindofthingthatNATOwastryingtotestthedefencestonotpermitittohappen.
“ItwasverymuchinSweden’sinterestthatthatwouldnothappen...Besidesthatoneintrusionofthe
Whiskey-classsubmarine,therewerenoviolations,nocapabilitiesoftheSovietstomakeanattackthat
couldnotbedefendedagainst,andthatwasthemissionofNATO,anditrequiredthecooperationofmany
countries....Thepointwasthatitwasnecessarytotestfrequentlythecapabilitiesofallcountries,notonly
intheBaltic–whichisverystrategic,ofcourse–butinthe
MediterraneanandAsiaticwatersandallthe
rest.”
TheStockholmcorrespondentoftheAssociatedPress,theworld'slargestnewsagency,didastoryonthe
subject:
:
``Youneedsomesortofagreementtodoathinglikethis.ButIknownothingofsuchanagreement,''said
AdmiralPerRudberg,headofthenavyfrom1978to1984.
CurrentDefenceMinisterBjoernvonSydowsaidhewassurprised,butadded,``Ihavenoreasonto
questionwhataformerU.S.defensesecretaryissaying.''
HereisthemostimportantquotefromAP:
“SirJohnWalker,aformerheadofBritain'smilitaryintelligence,saidNATOwantedtotestSwedish
antisubmarineforces.
`IfyouweregoingtooperateinsidetheStockholmarchipelago,youwantedtomakesurethattheSwedes
wouldnotattackyouwithtorpedoes,''Walkersaid,addingthatNATOwas``allowedacertainamountof
intrusionduringagivenperiod.''
EndofAssociatedPressquotefrom7March2000.Sowhathavewegot?Weinbergertalkedabout
“routine,regularscheduleddefencetesting”.WalkersaidthatNATOwas``allowedacertainamountof
intrusionduringagivenperiod.''ItseemsprettyobviousNATOwereinSwedishwaters.Stillnotclear?
InthefollowingepisodeofthesameSwedishstatetelevisioncurrentaffairsprogramme,broadcasta
fortnightlater,theBritishnavyministerfrom1979to1981,MargaretThatcher’sfirstterm,KeithSpeed,
confirmedthatBritishsubmarineshadbeeninSwedishwaters:regularly,too.
HereishisverbatimquotetotheSwedishtelevisionreporterwhohadtravelledtoEnglandtointerview
him:
“WhenIwasaNavyMinisternineteenyearsago,thesortofthingsMr.Weinbergerwas
describingwasthesortofthingsthatIwouldexpecttheBritishGovernmentto[make]
happen;indeed,inmyveryownsmallway,Iwasenablingittohappentoo.Inother
words,wewerenotdoingthissortoftestingofothercountries’defencesortraining,call
itwhatyouwill,withouttheoverallagreementofbothparties...
SwedishTV:“ButthetestingwasconductedinSweden.Thatyouareconfirming?”
Speed:“Yes”.
SwedishTV:
“Youareconfirmingthat?”
Speed:“Yes”.
IsitpossibletobemorecategoricalthanSpeedwas?AftertheTVinterviewwasairedin2000,
however,BildtandSwedishnavalofficialswentpublicwithstatementsthatdeniedwhatthesemenhad
saidwastrue.Theywereconfused,hadbeenmisinterpreted,didn'tknowtheyweretalkingaboutSweden.
Alternatively,theyhadbeenmanipulatedbythereporter;ortheprogrammewasdishonest.Itsaysalot
aboutthestandardsofSwedishjournalismthattheseauthorityfiguresratherinsultinginsinuationsabout
distinguishedinternationalretiredofficialswerenotscepticallyexamined.
Rather,theconsensusseemedtosettledownthatthethreeseniorAnglo-Saxondefencefigureshad
somehowbeen“deluded”.FromwhatIhavebeenabletoseefromtheSwedishnewspaperarchives,no
onefromtheprintmediachasedthemuptoaskthemwhytheirversionofeventswassoutterlydeniedby
Bildtandothers.TheSwedishTVprogramme’sreportingteamthatgotthatscoopdidnotgetbacking
fromothermediaoutlets.Youcouldaskyourselfalsowhohadthegreatermotivetolie.Whywould
SpeedandtheothersclaimthatNATOoperationshadtakenplaceiftheyhadn't?Whywouldtheybother?
Itisbaroquetothinktheywouldpluckthisallegationsoutofthinair–forwhat,tomaketrouble?In
contrast,BildtandtheSwedishnavyhadveryobviousmotivestomaintaintheirreputationsandtotally
denytheseinconvenientclaims.
WhenIstartedtogetontothestoryyearslater,bywhichtimeWeinbergerhaddied,Idecidedtocheckat
source.TopsecreteventsinBritishhistoryareexemptedfromthethirtyyearruleandcanbeclassified
forupto100years.ThepapersonAnglo-Swedishrelationsfor1982havebeenwithheldfromthe
NationalArchivesfor“ReasonsofNationalSecurity”,IrecentlydiscoveredonavisittoKew.
IfWeinbergerwasdead,Speed,SirKeith,wasalive.Itwasmanyyearssincethatinterviewwith
Swedishtelevision,butImanagedtoreachhimbyphone.Hewasstillaliveandverymuchcompos
mentis.SirKeithwas,between1974and1992,theMPforAshfordandwaschieflyfamousforbeing
sackedasnavyministerbyMrsThatcherforresistinghersandherdefencesecretaryJohnNott’ssurface
navycuttingplansin1981.(ThesewereonlypartiallyoverturnedbytheFalklandswarayearlater).I
havealwayswonderedwhetherhismotiveintellingastorydisadvantageoustoThatcher.
HesaidtomeitwastrueBritishsubswereinSwedishwaters.Headdedthathisorderscamefromthe
verytopoftheBritishgovernmenthierarchy–thattheycamefromMargaretThatcher-butthathedidnot
knowwhethertheSwedishgovernmentwasinvolved.IaskedhimwhetherheliaisedwiththeSwedish
governmentortheSwedishnavy.
Hereplied:TheSwedishnavy.IaskedhimwhethertheSwedishgovernmentknewandhesaid.Thatwas
uptotheSwedishnavytosay.IthenaskedhimwhyseniorSwedishnavalofficershadsaidhehimand
Weinbergerhadbeenmisquotedfortalkingabouttheoperations.Hesaid.“Everyoneistryingtocover
theirbacks.”
IaskedSirKeithtogiveoperationaldetailsbuthesaidhewasnotabletodothat,andadding
“TheywerethemostsecretoperationstheUKevercarriedout.Everysingleoperationwasapprovedby
MargaretThatcher.”Alotofithedidnotknowthespecificsof.
WhatwereThatcher’smotives?Thatcherwascertainlyveryanti-Communist.Therewasnolovelost
betweenherandPalme.Therewasnoofficialvisitbetweenthetwo,inthefouryearsthattheirterms
overlapped.IhaveseennothinginThatcher'sofficialpapersaboutPalme,andherofficialbiographer
CharlesMooresaidtomeinanemailhehadseennothingonthesubjectonallhisyearsofresearch,
interviews,andexaminationofdocuments.Butthatdoesn'tmeanPalmewasneverdiscussed.Papers
mighthavebeenburned,stillclassifiedMooremighthaveneverthoughttoasksincetheSwedish
operationsarenotpartofthecommonhistory;thosefewintheknowmaynothavefeltanyneedto
enlightenhim.Whileshewasstillalive,ItriedtogetholdofMargaretThatcher,whowasailing;her
assistantMarkWilliamsondidcallbackandsaidshewasnotinapositiontogiveinterviews.Some
pressofficerfromtheUKMinistryofDefencechortled,“Itsoundslikesomethingfromaspymovie”.He
didnotactuallydenytheoperations.
IemailedDairFarrar-Hockley,thesonofAnthonyFarrarHockley,theBritishgeneralwhoheaded
NATO'snorthernfront–CommanderinChiefAlliedForcesNorthernEurope-whoseheadquarterswere
atKolsaasoutsideOslointheearly1980swhenthesubmarineintrusionswereattheirheight.Farrar
HockleyJrhadorganisedthewritingofabiographyofhisillustriousfather,whohadbeencommissioned
intothe1
st
airbornedivisionin1942andfoughtinItalyandFrance.
LaterhewontheMilitaryCrosswhilefightingaCommunistrebellioninAthens.ForawhileAnthony
FarrarHockleybecameahistorian,writingclassicbooksontheBattleoftheSomme.Hespenttwoyears
asaprisonerofwar,andsawextensiveactiveintheMiddleEastafterthewar.Later,hewascolonel
commandantoftheParachuteRegiment.AbouthistimeasNorthernFlankcommander-in-chief,Farrar
HockleyJrrepliedtothequestionofwhetherhisfatherknewaboutthesubmarineintrusionsinsucha
wayastobeatacitadmissionthattheytookplace,butthathewouldnotbeabletohelpme,norwould
anysuchmaterialappearinthebiography,forwhichhehadhiredaghostwriter.Thespacebetween
whatIsaidandhisreplyappearedtometosuggestthatheknewmorethanheleton.Ialsohadanarticle
publishedaboutthesubmarineintrusionsinamajorBritishwarshipsmonthlymagazine.Theeditorwas
verykeeninthebeginning.HehadwrittenabookabouttheSubmarineService,wasinterestedand
knowledgeableabouteverythingtodowiththeRoyalNavy.Buthehadalwaysbeencuriousaboutthose
submarineintrusionsintheBaltic.HewasnotatallhostiletothestoryaboutBritain’smostsecretnaval
operations.HealsosaidthatoldRoyalNavysubmarinerswereextremelyclannishandsecretive.Heput
meintouchwithoneofthemagazine'sdefenceconsultants,atrainerinintelligencemattersfortheRoyal
NavalDefenceCollege,PeterHore.Horewasextremelydismissive,evenrude,aboutthesuggestionthat
theBritishhadevenbeeninSwedishterritorialwaters,justpassingthrough,letalonecarriedout
advancedcovertoperations.WhenIsaidKeithSpeedhadsaidtheBritishhadbeeninSwedishwaters
andthiswasoneoftheirbiggestColdWarsecretshesimplyignoredmyremark.Hiseditor,however,
wentaheadandpublishedmyarticle.Myarticlewasverycautiousintone.Diditcreateastorm?Iheard
nothing,notfromtheeditor,afteritwaspublished.
IalsowroteanarticlefortheSundayTimesheadlined“ThatcherraidedSwedishCoast”.Iwastoldthe
paperwasphonedbyCarlBildt'sclosefriendandfixer,anolduniversity-chum-turned-diplomatcalled
OlofEhrenkrona,whoutterlydeniedtheSovietthesis.(IhadcontactedtheSwedishforeignministry;
Bildtwasforeignministeratthetime.AshortwhilelaterIgotacallfromaveryrudeEhrenkrona,who
offeredmean'ExclusiveaccountofRussianintrusions”fromsomenavalofficersheknew.IsaidIwas
notinterestedinthedeal.EhrenkronaimmediatelyrangtheSundayTimestodenouncemyarticle,which
wasgoingthroughtheeditingprocess.Thearticledidgoahead,buttheSundayTimes'seditorsshoweda
reluctancetocommissionafollowupstoryordelvedeeperintothestory.Thepaperis,morethanany
otherinFleetStreet,knownforitsgoodcontactswiththeBritishintelligenceservices.
IalsometanonfictionwritercalledJimRingafewtimes.Asmall,bespectacled,boyishmaninhis
fifties,aTVdocumentaryproducerandnonfictionwriter,RinghadwrittenaboosterishBoys'Ownbook
aboutthesubmarineservicecalled“WeComeUnseen”,involvinghithertountoldstoriesofderring-do
involvinganumberofnowretiredsubmarinecaptains.WemetatthecafeoftheBritishlibrarywhere
wewerebothcarryingoutresearch–heonhislatestbook
ThemenRingwroteaboutinWeComeUnseenhadallcommandedP-boats(Porpoiseclassdiesel
submarines)or“O-boats”-theOberonclassdieselsubmarines,allegedlyoneofthetypesthathadbeen
intheBaltic–intheseventiesandthenhadrisentoveryseniorpositionsinthe1990sand2000s.Now
theywereallretired,andthickasthieves.Ringwarnedme:Theyzealouslyguardedtheservice's
reputation.ButRingtoowasintriguedbyaccountsofBritishcovertoperationsinSweden,andhe
promisedtotalktohissubmarineservicecontacts.Ididn’tknowwhattoexpect:likeallotherBritish
submarinewriters,Ringadmiredthesubmarinemen.
Ringmentionsatleastonecaptain,ChristopherWrefordBrown,commanderoftheOpossum,ashaving
beenonBalticoperations(butwithoutspecifyingwhethertheyhadbeeninSwedishwaters.)But
otherwisehewrotewithafrustratinglackofdetailonthefewoccasionswhendidmentiontheRoyal
Navy’sBalticoperations.Thesubtitleofhisbookwasthe“untoldstoryofBritain’sColdWar
Submariners”.Butitwashardlythat.Ringwritesthat“itisknownthattheBritishsubmarinesspent
almost40yearsfightingtheColdWarintheNorthAtlantic,andthattheirdutiesoccasionallytookthem
furthernorthintotheNorwegianandBarentsseasandthenavalbasesoftheSovietUnionwherethey
playedcatandmousewiththeirRedBannerFleetcounterparts”.“TheFulltruthismoredramaticstill,
however.“Asoneofthegreatsubmarinersofhisgeneration,AdmiralSirJohnCoward,laterremarked;
‘Therewasawar,andwewonit’”.Partofthatwarinvolvedcovertoperations.ButRingdoesn’ttellus
aboutallthecovertoperations.
Ring’sbookisapaeantotheRoyalNavy,writteninfruityprose.Hebeginsthebookdescribingthe
autumn1963intaketothePalladianDartmouthNavalcollege,inDevon,“dressedinregulationtweed
jackets,greyflannelsandtrilbies,whomighthavebeenpublicschoolboysinanypartofthecountry.”
Theywerethesuccessorsof“Drake,Grenville,Cooke,HawkeandNelson”andothergraduateswhohad
goneontocommandthe“fleetinthedaysofEmpirewhentheRoyalNavywasfarandawaythegreatest
fleetintheworld”.
Theirpredecessorshad“packedtheirseachestsatfourhours’notice”to“dieunderthecommandof
JellicoeandBeattyatJutland”;theyhad“corneredtheGrafSpeeatMontevideo,drownedaboardHood
andRoyalOak,andconductedtheextraordinaryevacuationatDunkirk.TheyhadsunktheBismarckand
theScharnhorst,disabledtheTirpitzatAltenfjord.Theyhadescortedhundredsofconvoysof
merchantmenandwonthebattleagainstAdmiralDonitz’sU-boatsintheAtlantic.”
Itwasa“finetradition”thathadformedthemenfromtheDartmouthcadets,“butoftheclassof‘63still
morewouldbeasked”.BecausetheywouldbecommandingBritain’snuclearsubmarinedeterrent–in
thelateeighties.“TheywouldbeartheBurdenoftheRoyalNavy’sNuclearAge.”
interestedinwasnotthenuclearsubmarinessomuch.Buttheperiodbeforethat,theyhadcommanded
dieselsubmarines,theOberonandPorpoiseclassboats,theonesthatwesmall,quietandcheapenough
tobeusedforspecialoperationsinshallowwaters.Nuclearsubmarineswerefartooloudandlargetobe
abletoentertheSwedisharchipelago.
AlthoughRing,inhisbook,hadmentionedtheBalticSeaareaacoupleoftimesinmostgeneralterms,he
didnotbetrayanyknowledgeofoperationsinSwedishwaters.Ringsaidhewouldconsultwiththemen
aboutwhattheyhaddoneintheearlierphasesoftheircareers;hedidnotoffermetheiremailsorphone
numbers.Iwishhehad.Henowhadcontrolovertheprocess.Wemetacoupleofinconclusivetimes
moreinthecafeoftheBritishLibrary;Ringaskedme“howfarhaveyougot”.Thenhesaidthathehad
notactuallygotanythingoutofthemen.“Theyallsaid:'Notmeguv.”Sothatwasadeadend.Perhaps
hehadn’tbeentoldanythingelse,or,hadbeteentold,feltthestorywouldn’treflectwellonhisbeloved
RoyalNavy’sreputation.
ItriedtogetaninterviewwithGöranWallén,oneoftheSwedishnavycommandersactiveinthe
Hårsfjärdenincident,whenIwaslastinStockholm.Wallénwasoneofthemostaggressivepersecutorsof
Tunander,nevermentioninghisnamewithoutcallinghimidiotoraconspiracytheorist.Hehadseveral
outletsinSwedishnavaljournalsandmagazinestodothis,andpoisonedTunander'sreputationinthe
Swedishacademiccommunity.Wallénsaidno.Hewas“decoratingthehouse”.Ihaveafeelingthat
anytimeImadearequestforaninterviewinthenexttenyears,hewouldbe“decoratingthehouse”.
IhadjustsucceededingettinganinterviewwithanassistantprofessorattheRoyalDefenceCollege,
JerkerWidén,whoknewtheresearcharoundthesubmarineissuewell,havingwrittenhisPhDonit.He
hadalsobeeninvolvedinalatersubmarinecommission,in2001,whichlookedintoalltheevidence
presentedbythemilitaryandfounditdidn'tstackup.Widénsaidyestoaninterview.Thesameday,and
minutesafterreceivingtheletterfromWallén,IreceivedanotheremailfromWidén.Hetoowasnow
unabletomaketheinterview.InawayIwasflatteredbythis.WallénandWidénkneweachother;they
hadbothmembersofthe2001submarinecommission.MyguessisthatWallén,thedoyenofretired
Swedishnavalcommanders,knewsomehowthatIknew,hadtoldthemuchyoungerWidénnottotalkto
me.
IinterviewedDavidOwen,UKforeignsecretary1977–79,laterSDPleader,oneofBritain'sbest
knownelderstatesmen,hadknownPalmeinthe1980s,whenOwenwasaleadingmemberofPalme's
CommissiononCommonSecurity,moreofwhichinalaterchapter.Thecommissionmetonceamonthto
discussworldpeaceinoneorotherworldcapital.Thesubmarineintrusionsweregoingonataroundthis
time.Didtheyeverdiscusssubmarines?Never.
OlofPalme'speacecommissionconsistedofdiplomatsandretiredstatesmenfrombothblocs,aswellas
neutralcountries.Thesubmarinestorywasabiginternationalnewsstoryatthetime.Itmusthavebeenan
elephantintheroomiftheydidnotevenmentionthesubmarines.MembersincludedCarter'sformer
secretaryofState,CyrusVance,DavidOwen,GroHarlemBrundtlandfromNorwayandJoopdenUyl
fromtheNetherlands,bothofthemprimeministersduringthelifetimeofthecommission;SonnyRamphal
fromGuyana,lateracommonwealthsecretarygeneral;SalimSalimfromTanzania.AlfonsoGarcia
RoblesfromMexico.AndGeorgyArbatovandMikhailMilsteinfromtheUSSR,thelatterpersistently
accusedinSwedishconservativecirclesofbeingaGRUSovietmilitaryagent,andthe“dangerous”or
“naive”Palme's“liaison”withtheKremlin.
IfranklyaskedLordOwenwhomhethoughtwasresponsibleforthesubmarineintrusions.Ofcoursehe
wasfamiliarwiththesubmarineintrusions.“Weneveroncementionedtheminthecommission.”Didhe
knowsomeofthemwereBritish?Hedidn'tknow,butsaiditcouldbea“rogueMI6operation”.Hedid
say,thoughthattheThatcheriteshadtakenholdofhistorywritingoftheColdWar.“Herversion
prevailed.”Therewasanothernarrative,thatthepeaceniks,thedoves,theoneswhothoughttheSoviets
hadtobetreatedasequaldialoguepartners,deservedmuchmorerecognition.Theirtimewouldcome.
InSweden,IalsotalkedtoOlaFrithiofson,acivilservantinhisfiftieswhotookanamateur'sinterestin
thesubmarineintrusionsbecausehisfatherKarlwasthetopcivilservant,statesecretaryintheSwedish
MinistryofDefenceinthe1960s.AssuchtheelderFrithiofsonwasservingdirectlyunderSven
Andersson–whochairedthe1983submarinecommission–andknewalotaboutdefencematters.
InSwedentopcivilservantsarepoliticalappointments:FrithiofsonSrwasapaidupSocialDemocrat,
lateranMPfromthatparty.SothereisnowayhewouldhavebeeninvolvedinanycabalagainstPalme,
believeshisson,whenIinterviewedhimintheGothenburgcentralrailwaystationcaferecently.Inthe
early1980stheyoungerFrithiofsonwasinhisearlytwentiesandwasinternationalsecretaryofthe
SocialDemocraticYouthOrganisation,aprestigiousandimportantposition.HethereforeknewPalme
quitewell.Frithiofsonhadworkedaspro-democracyactivistbothinCommunistPolandandinCentral
America.LikePalmehimself,hewasabelieverindemocracyandagainstsuperpowerbullying.He
emphasizedhowPalmehadbeensupportiveoftheSolidaritymovementinPoland–againstSoviet
interests.PalmewasnowayaSovietstooge.TheSocialDemocratswerecentrist,theywerenot
Communists.TheSocialDemocratYouthmovement,withPalme'sblessing,
convertedVWbusestoGdansk,whereSolidaritywerebased.LaterOlaFrithiofsontravelledto
Nicaraguawhere,againwithPalme'sblessing,hisjobwastotryandpersuadetheYoungSandinistas–
theSandinistassohatedbytheReaganadministration–nottojointheCommunistdominatedWorld
FederationofDemocraticYouth,butinsteadtheIUSY,theyouthinternationalofSocialists,themuchmore
moderateorganisationofwhichtheSwedishSocialDemocratsweremembers.Hedidnotsucceed.But
again,itdemonstratedtheSocialDemocrats'centristcredentials:againstCommunism.Butalsofriendly
withthirdworldliberationmovements.IfitwashardforAmericanColdWarwarriorstotellthe
differencebetweenSocialDemocratsandCommunists,well...
Frithiofsonremembershisfather,thestatesecretary,secondinchargeatdefence,tellinghimattheheight
ofthesubmarineintrusionsthatthesubmarinescamefrom“theWest”.Buthisfatherwouldnotelaborate.
Twentyyearson,FrithiofsongotintouchwithTunander,andreaduponTunander'sbooks.Hethen
starteddigginghimself.HegotintouchwithBobbyInman,aformerdeputyCIAchiefandinthesixtiesa
navalattachéinStockholm.Inmanhad,withthetopsecretacquiescenceofSwedishnavalofficers,laid
outhydrophonechaininSwedishwatersintheBaltic,inSwedishwaters,tocoverSovietsubmarine
movementsintheBalticSea(becauseSOSUSdidn’tcovertheBaltic).Forpoliticalreasons,because
Swedenwasneutral,thishydrophonenetwork–moreofwhichinthenextchapter-couldnotendupon
land,buttherewassupposedtohavebeenanantennalinkabovethesurfaceabletotransmitburstsof
radioinformationtoapassingNATOplane.ThisantennamayhavebeensuppliedbyCyrillictextsothat,
ifitwerediscoveredbyunsuspectingconscripts,pleasureboatsorfisherman,orcouldbeevidenceof
“Sovietintrusions”.
InmanwroteinanemailtoFrithiofson:“DuringmyyearsasdeputychiefoftheCIA,Sovietsubmarines
enteredSwedishwaters,buttherewasnodeeppenetration.Sovietsubmarinecaptainsweretrainingin
theBalticalongtheSwedishcoastpreparingforoperationsalongtheUScoast.TheywentintoSwedish
territorialwaters,theycrossedthe12milesterritoriallimit,buttheyneverenteredthearchipelagos.”In
otherwords,herewasanotherseniorUSofficialwasexoneratingtheSoviets,andtherewaswritten
emailproof.Ofcourse,theyhadthehydrophonenetwork–maintainedbyanetworkofwestern
minisubmarineswhichdoubtlessprovidedsomeoftheobservations–toprovethattheSovietswerenot
intheSwedisharchipelago.Thisisaprettysignificantremark.
BothTunanderandFrithiofsonbelievethatInmanlefttheCIAin1982becauseofaconflictwithhisboss,
CIAchiefandcoldwarhawkBillCasey,overtheaggressivenessoftheWest'soperationsaimedatthe
friendlySwedishgovernment.
9 .Th eWest'scamp aign o n th eNo rth ern Flan k
Whileitishardtogetpersonal,individualadmissionsaboutoffensiveoperationspeoplewerepersonally
involvedinintheBalticintheearly1980s,itiseasiertogetastrategicpicturebygoingtothewritten
sources–andsearchingouttherightsourcesamongthehugeamountofwrittenmaterialoutthere.Alot
hasbeenwrittenabouttheColdWar,buttheNorthernFlankhasbeensomewhatunderemphasized,
althoughthereissomeinterestingnewmaterialbeingpublishedTheColdWartookplaceonsomany
fronts,historiansmaybeforgivenforfocusingtheirattentionelsewhere,onproxywarswherebloodwas
spilled.ButactuallytheNorthernFlank–whichincludedtheBaltic,Scandinavia,andtheNorwegianand
Arcticseas-becamethemainstrategictargetoftheRoyalandUSnaviesagainsttheSovietUnion,as
attentionshiftedawayfromthewiderAtlantic.Thereasonsforthisshiftweretwo:theSovietshad
realisedthattheirnuclearsubmarinefleetwastoonoisyandeasilydetectedtobeoutonthehighseas,
andsoshiftedtoanewdefensiveBalticandArcticbastionstrategyfortheirnuclearmissilesubs,the
SSBNs.TheSSBNswereessentialtoSovietsecurity:theguaranteethatNATOwouldnotseekto
destroytheUSSRbyfirststrikenuclearattack.
TheSovietsneededthesesubsintacttoprovidea“secondstrike”defensivecapacitysothat,ifNATO
strucktheUSSRfirst,mutualdestructionwouldoccurasMoscowwouldbeabletofireoffthese
missiles.
TheBritishandAmericansresponsetothispull-backofthesemostimportantelementsinthesecurity
balancewassimplywentafterthemintheirlairs.
TheimperativetogoaftertheSovietnucleardeterrentwasonemotive,then,forthenorthernflank’s
importance.Second,AmericansstrategistshadidentifiedtheNorthernFlank–relativelydemilitarised
andpeacefulthroughtheColdWarbycommonSoviet-Scandinavianconsent-asa“softunderbelly”
throughwhichmilitarypressurecouldbeputontheSovietUnion.ThehardlinersintheReagan
administration–peoplelikeWeinberger–werealreadyusedtoplayingtoughwiththemajorNATO
alliesovertechnologyexportsandbasicallycrushingtheliveandletliveclimatebetweenSchmidt’s
WestGermanyandtheSovietUnion.SwedenandNorwayweresmallerandweakercountries,which
wereeveneasiertodominate.
TheSovietdecisiontowithdrawfromthehighseascouldbeexplainedbytheirtechnological
disadvantagevis-à-visWesternsubmarines.HistorianPeterHennessy’srecentTheSilentDeep(2015),a
historyoftheColdWaratSea,explainsitwell.BritishandAmericansubmarineshad,inthe1970s,
severalbigadvantagesovertheirSovietcounterparts.Theircrewswerebettertrained;Sovietcrews
comprisedconscriptsandtheSovietscouldn'taffordthemoneytoputtheirsubsouttoseatothesame
extent.BritishandAmericansubmarinecrewswereprofessionals.BritishandAmericansubswerefar
quieter,andtheyhadbetterpassivesonars.Activesonarsarewhereyougiveyourownpresenceawayby
sendingouta“ping”signal;itisaverypowerfultoolforfindingtheenemy;unfortunatelyitrevealsyour
ownposition.Passivesonarswereinawaybetter;theywerelesspowerfulatdetectingtheopponent,but
theydidnotgiveoffanownsignal,sotheydidnotrevealthesender'sposition.Britishtechnologywas
particularlyadvancedinthisarea.AccordingtoanauditconductedbytheMOD'sair/seawarfare
committee,SovietsubsweretenyearsbehindBritishsubmarinesinnoisereductionandananalysisof
encountersbetweenUKandSovietsubmarinesindicatedasonarrangeadvantageof2or3to1totheUK.
NearlytwothirdsofSovietsubmarinecrewsintheNorthernFleet–themostimportantofthefourSoviet
fleetsandbasedatMurmansk–weremadeupofyoungRussiansontheirnationalservice,farfromthe
volunteerprofessionalsthatmadeuptheBritishandAmericansubmarineservices.
WhenSovietsubslefttheirbasesatMurmanskandPetropavlovskonthePacifictoroamthehighseas
theyfacedaformidabledefenceintelligencegatheringoperation.TheUnitedStateshaddesignedan
ocean-spanningunderwatersoundsurveillancesystemcalledSOSUS.Thehydrophonearrayswere
placedontheseabedtoprovidearegularcheckonthemovementsofSovietsubmarines;thesignalswere
carriedashorebysubmergedcablestosocalledRegionalEvaluationCentres.Thesystemwasquite
advanced.
Bybreakingdownthewholepanoplyofdifferentcreaksandhumsproducedbythetargetedvessel,the
Americanswereabletodeterminethepreciseidentityofeachvessel–notjustthemodel,Soviet
WhiskeyorOscarsuborwhatever,buttheactualprecisesubmarine.Thelowfrequenciesofthedifferent
kindsofadvancedmachinery,towhichthehumanearwasdeaf,couldbedetectedbythehydrophone
networkand,onceprocessedbytheland-baseddetectioncentres,tracedoutmultivariatepaperplots
knownasLOFARgrams,eachofwhichtracedasoundprofileuniquetoeachsubmarine.TheUSbuiltup
averyprecisedatabase.Atanymomentintime,theyknewexactlywhichindividualSovietsubswereout
intheAtlanticandPacificoceans.ThemassivelyexpensiveSOSUSnetwork,withcablescriss-crossing
thevastareasofthedeepoceans,forthousandsofkilometres,wasunderstandablyanotheroftheCold
War'smostcloselyguardedsecrets.
SOSUSwasusedtohelpguideUSsubmarinestotheirSoviettargets.AndtheUSNavyusedanti-
submarinewarfareaircraftwithhydrophonestotargetanevennarrowerareathantheapproximatearea
identifiedbytheSOSUSsystem;thisinformationwasthenpassedtoUSsubmarineswhichtookuppursuit
andwiththeirpassivesonarswereabletogetabearingontheSoviettarget,whichwaswhenthetracking
began,fromadistanceofafewkilometres.
TheBritishandAmericanspridedthemselvesontheirsubmarinesbeingabletotrack,fordaysorweeks
atatime,acrossentireoceans,atadistance,Sovietsubs.TheSovietssubmarineenginesweresonoisy
theydidnotknowwhatwasgoingonaroundthem.Itknockedoutwhateverprimitivepassivesonar
technologytheyhad.Inthebeginning,atleast,theysuspectednothing.AnySovietsubmarinewasgoodto
target.Ifitcametoawarsituation,allthewesternsubsneededtobegivenwastheordertoshootand
theywouldsinktheirquarry.Sovietnuclearattackanddieselsubsweregoodenoughtargets,because
westernsubsneededtoprotecttheSovietattackssubs'presumedtargets,Americansurfaceshipconvoys
carryingtroopandmaterielacrosstheAtlantictoEurope,buttherealprizesweretheSovietnuclear
ballisticmissilesubmarines,theSSBNs,whichwouldbebroughtdownbeforetheywereabletounleash
their16nuclearmissiles–eachofwhichhadanexplosivepowerequivalenttodozensofHiroshima
bombs–onthecitiesoftheUnitedStatesandEurope.TheSOSUSsystemandthesubmarinetracking
systemfilledoneofthegapsagainstaSovietsecondstrikecapacity–butSOSUSwasunderdevelopedon
thenorthernflank,particularlyintheBarentsSea(andwasineffectiveundertheice.)Andthatmade
Scandinaviaallthemoreimportantasatarget.
TheRoyalNavy,whosechiefsweredominatedbypartisansofthesurfacenavy,cameunderpressure
whenthenewThatchergovernmentwaselectedin1979,writesHennessy.Thesubmarineservicewas
provingitsworth.Themuchbiggerandmoreexpensivesurfacenavywasnotprovingtobeasgoodvalue
formoney;slowandvulnerabletoenemysubmarines.Andnotveryusefulassetsinalatetwentieth
centurysuperpowerwar,wherekillersubmarinesunderwaterandpowerfulanti-shipmissilesabove
providedaseriousthreat.(Gunboatdiplomacyagainstupstartthirdworldstateswasanother
matter...surfaceshipsweregoodforthat.)However,mostRoyalNavychiefshadavestedinterestin
keepingupRoyalNavysurfaceshipnumbers.TheThatchergovernmentprovedtohaveanotherview.
TheTorygovernmentthatwontheelectionofMay1979facedanumberofseriouseconomicissues.John
Nott,thenewDefencesecretary,foundthattheMinistryofDefencewasoverspendingby200million
poundsayear.Totryandbringspendingundercontrol,Nottsoughttounderstandnavalstrategy.Apart
fromconvoyingshipsacrosstheNorthAtlantic,writesHennessy,theRoyalNavy'sjobwastosupportthe
AmericanCarrierBattlegroupsthatweretomoveintothatAtlanticbottleneckknownastheGreenland-
Iceland-UKgap.ButNottwasannoyedatthepoorqualityofthebriefingshewasgettingfromthenavy
chiefs.Hefelttheywerenottellinghimthewholestory,thattheyweredefendingtheirsurfaceships.Nott
gotamuchclearerheadedpictureofnavalstrategyfromthePentagon,whowerebeginningtofocusmuch
moreonthevirtuesofsubmarinesandofanoffensivenorthernflankstrategy..
TheAmericansecrettappingofSovietunderwatercommunicationcablesoutsideMurmanskandinthe
SovietpartsofthePacific–thetopsecretIvyBellsproject–hadunearthedtheinterestingfindingthat
NATOhadmassivelyoverestimatedSovietassertiveness.TheSovietswerenotgoingtogointothe
AtlantictoattackAmericanconvoysheadingtoEurope.Theyhadstartedtorealisetheirsubmarineswere
noisyandeasilytailed.
ThetopsecretIvyBellsoperationinvolveddeployingAmericanfastattacksubmarinesthatdroppedoff
combatdiverswhodeliveredwaterproofrecordingpodsontoRussiannavalcommunicationscables.The
Soviets,atleastinthebeginning,didn'thaveaninklingofwhatwasgoingon.Everyfewweeks,the
diverswentbacktorecoverthetapesandpassedthemontoUSsignalsintelligence,whichwouldthen
spendanenormousamountoftimedecryptingthemessagesinordertogetinsightsintoSovietnavy
strategysecrets.
SoonerevelationfromtheseinterceptswouldappeartohavebeenthattheSovietshadnoplanstofocus
onknockingouttheconvoysystem;atthetimeitwasthoughtperhapsbecausetheydidn'tthinkanyEast
WestwarwouldlastaslongassixmonthsandsoonewhereAmericanconventionalreinforcements
wouldmakeadifference.Later,itwasrealisedthattheSovietshadaspyintheUSnavywhotoldthem
thatSovietsubmarinesweresonoisyNATOcouldtrackthemthroughtheirentirelifecycles.
Therefore,theSovietshadplannedtoclustertheirattacksubmarinesinsocalled“bastions”intheBaltic
SeaandundertheArcticseaice,wheretheywouldbehardertotargetbywesternsubs.Andwherethey
wouldbebettersituatedtodefendtheSovietballisticnuclearmissilesubmarines.OccupyingNorway
wasameanstosecurethosebastions,anessentiallydefensivemove.ItwasasiftheSovietshadfinally
hadapremonitionoftheirhowpoortheirsubmarineswereatevadingdetection.Inthesebastionsthey
wouldbeguardingtheSovietnuclearballisticmissilesubmarinesfromwesternattack.Theterrain
offeredanotherboost.AnotherpossibilitywastheBaltic,whichhadverydifferentsalinitylevelsanda
numberofrockyarchipelagos–includingtheSwedishone–thatmadesonardetectionmuchharder
comparedtotheAtlantic.IntheArcticOcean,theseaicemadeithardinadifferentway:theice
stalactiteshangingfromtheundersideoftheicethatreflectedsonarsounds;theendlesscreaking,cracking
andshearingnoisesthatoccurredwhenicemassescollidedandpressedagainstoneanothermadeitvery
easytoevadedetection.Ifsubmarinesinthesebastionswereunmolested,theSovietswouldpreserve
theirsecondstrikecapacityasadeterrent;eveniftheSovietUnionweredestroyedbyaNATOfirst
attack,theUSSRwouldbeabletostrikeback.Sincethenucleardeterrentwastheconventionallyweaker
NATO'sbackstop,theabilitytodestroytheSovietdeterrentcapabilitywasanimportantpartofNATO
defences.TheNATOnuclearthreatwouldbeworthlessunlesstheSovietsecondstrikecapacitywas
knockedout.TheSovietsknewthat,andknewitwasimportanttoprotectthatcapabilitythanknockingout
NATOconvoys.
ThesesubmarinesintheirbastionscouldeasilynotbetakenoutbyRoyalNavyorUSnavysurfaceships:
inadditiontobeingnotaseffectiveoffensiveweapons,theywerealsovulnerabletosuchSoviet
submarinesthatdidseektobreakoutoftheGreenland-Iceland-UKgap.NotttravelledtoWashingtonand
foundtheUSNavymuchmorestrategicallyinformedthantheRoyalNavy;theytoldhimaboutthis.And
howthenewSovietstrategyneededtobecounteredwithstrongerandbetterattacksubmarines
Returninghome,NottplannedtoslashthevulnerableandnotveryeffectivesurfaceRoyalNavy–
replacingmuchofthecruisersanddestroyerslostwithcheaptype23frigates–andfocusonbuildingup
anattacksubmarineforcethatwouldfocusontheNorthernFlank–theArcticandNorwegianSeasand
Baltic.InordertokilltheSovietsubmarinesintheirbastions.
InaspeechavailableattheUKNationalArchives,lookingatwaystosavemoneyforthecash-strapped
Thatchergovernment,DefenceSecretaryJohnNottpointedouttohisaudiencethathehadconsideredthe
optionsofcuttingtheRoyalAirforceandBritishArmybasedinGermanyandrejectedeachinturn.There
wouldbehugecostsinvolvedinhousingtheofficersandtheirfamiliesbackintheUK,anditwasalsoan
essentialpartoftheUK’scommitmenttoNATO.Hesaidthat“LiketheBritisharmyontheRhine,RAF
GermanyismilitarilysituatedintherightcountryfortheforwarddefenceofBritain.”
InchoosingasthetargetforhiscutstheRoyalNavy,heexplainedthatsurfaceshipswerehardtodefend.
“Tomeetthefastgrowingpowerofmodernmissilestofindtargetsaccuratelyandhitthemhardatlong
rangeswehaveshiftedtheemphasistowardssubmarinesanddecidedtoalterthebalanceofour
investmentbetweenplatformssuchassurfaceshipsandaircraftontheonehandandtheweaponsthey
carryontheother.Ouraimistomaximiserealcombatcapabilityandtoproduceanewforcestructure
withbetterhittingandstayingpowerincombat.Noonedeniesthatshipnumberscount,butitissimplyno
usebuildingmoreshipsandaircraftifwecannotaffordtoprovidethemwiththelatestweaponsystemsin
adequatenumbersformodernwarfare.”Hencethemassiveinvestmentintorpedoes.Andanew,cheaper
surfaceshipdesign,thetype23frigate.
Heendedhisspeechwithaquotefromanavalhistorianwhoarguedthat,inbothwars,Britain’slarge
navyandwealthoffightingexperiencefounditselfunpreparedforthethreatthatactuallydeveloped.
“Britainhadthewrongshapednavy,designedandtrainedforthe‘wrongkindofwar’.Thisevenafterthe
BattleofJutlandin1916whentheGermanBattleFleetwaseffectivelyshutupinharbour,Britainwas
almostdefeatedatseabysubmarinewarfareandthiswasalmostrepeatedaquarterofacentury
later..”
Nottwasdeterminednottolettheideologyofasurfacenavytriumphagain.Headdedthat“Ifullyaccept
thewisdomofthosewords–andthesolemnwarningthisimplies.”
However,Nott’splanswerefiercelyopposedbyFirstSealordHenryLeach,who,speakingcausticallyat
aRoyalUnitedServicesinstitutelecture,on9June1982,beganwiththewords:“Some2400yearsago
Thermistoclessaid‘hewhocontrolstheseacontrolseverything’InthelastthreeyearsIhaveservedtwo
secretariesofstatefordefenceandneitherhasbeenaGreekscholar.”
Hearguedthat,with70%ofNATO’scapabilityintheEasternAtlantic,theUKwasacceptedasthe
maritimeleaderofEurope.Britainhadanunrivalledseafaringtraditionandastilllargemerchantfleet.
Hethoughtthereshouldn’tbetoomuchfocusontheEuropeanflanks,buttheworldwideeconomicflank,
notonlymillionsofbarrelsofoilfromtheMiddleEastbuteconomiccommoditiessourcedfromaround
theworldwhichincludedcopper,tin,chromeandmore.TheSovietUnionwasnotgoingtoriskawarin
centralEuropethatwouldquicklygonuclear,butrathersoughttosatisfyitsimperialistdesignsby
“peacefulexploitationbackedbymilitarystrengthtogaincontroloftheeconomicresourcesonwhichthe
Westrelies.”
“FacedwithastrongallianceinEurope,thehardcontinentalNATOboundariestheSovietsaretryingto
outflankitbyprobingthesoftandill-definedmaritimeboundaries”.TheSovietssawtheirmaritime
powerasanidealtoolforfurtheringtheirfundamentalaimofachievingworlddominationandeconomic
advantage.”
Theremarksweremadeataprivatetalk,buthewentpublictwomonthslaterinRUSI’sjournal,accusing
Nottofconductingasurveythat“wasdoneinahurry,involvedprejudgementandwasdrivenbyshort
termpoliticomilitaryexpediencyratherthanlongtermstrategicsense.”
Itwasveryrareforservingmilitaryleaderstocriticizegovernmentpolicyinpractice,andtheoneswho
did,say,inletterstotheeditoroftheTimes,usuallygottheirknucklesseverelyrapped.Leachwas
unrepentant,explainingtoreportersfromhishomethathehadnotclearedtheremarkswithNottbefore
publishingthem.
Leach’sspiriteddefenceofsurfaceshipswastonoavail:heretiredattheendoftheyearandthe
governmentwentaheadwiththecuts.
TheflankingfocusoftheUSandRoyalNaviesfollowed,then,theshiftinSovietnavalstrategytowardsa
defensivestance,“thebastionstrategy”,wheretheSovietnuclearmissilesubspennedthemselvesinin
areasclosetotheSovietUnion;andthisposedasignificantchallengetotheRoyalandUSnavies,writes
Hennessy.
SotheAmericanssoughtto“catchthebearinhislair”-goaftertheRussiansubmarines,
closetoorintheirhometerritory.ThenewplansinvolvedAmericanattacksubmarinespenetratingthe
GreenlandIcelandUKgapandseekingoutthenavalbasesoftheKolaPeninsula,theSovietpartofthe
ScandinavianPeninsula,wheretheirmostimportantnavalbaseatMurmanskwassituated.Thebiggest
proponentofthiswasthegunghoyoungnavalsecretary,JohnLehman,inhisearlyforties,withmovie
starlooks,aformernavalflyerhimself,whohadbeenhand-pickedbyReaganfortheearly1980s
expansionoftheUSnavy.Therewasmuchtalkatthetimeofa“600shipfleet”.Theideawastokeepthe
Sovietsonthebackfoot,keepthemfightingfortheirlivesatasaferemovefromNATOtransatlantic
shippingroutesandinareaswheretheyweretoofarfromNATO'scoreareastocauseharm.Thewar
planswererewrittenandreformulatedbetween1982and1984,justthetimewhentheunknownintrusions
inSweden–acountryofcoursegeographicallyclosetoRussia–tookoff.Thestrategywasgiventhe
nodbyNATO'smajorcommandsin1982;thegoalwas,intheworldofformerUSsecondfleet
commanderAdmiralMustin,to“containanddestroytheSovietnorthernfleet”initsbastions.
In1985,theUSnavywentpublicwiththebear-baitingstrategy,ina48pagesupplementdistributedalong
withtheUSNavalInstituteProceedings.Itwasameantasameansofdrummingupsupportforthenew
strategy.ThethenchiefofnavaloperationsJamesWatkinsobservedthatonlyasmallfractionofSoviet
forceswouldbeforwarddeployed;therestwouldbeheldbackinareasclosetotheUSSR.
ThereisbeenadebateinSwedeninrecentyears,notusuallydirectlylinkedtotheidentityofthe1980s
submarinedebate.(Thoughthesubmarinemysteryisalwaysthere,aghostintheroom.)WouldtheUSA
havecometoSweden'spre-emptivehelp,landedwithmarinesandairforcetroops,andmaybeplanes,in
thetwilightperiodbeforeawar,withtheexpectationtheSwedeswouldnotresist?Noplanshavebeen
declassifiedtothateffect,butthesuspicionmustbethattheredoexistcontingencyplansforaninvasion
ofSwedenaspartofNATO’sforwardstrategy.Inotherwords,aUSorNATO“friendly”occupationof
SwedenintherunuptoashootingwarwiththeSovietsmayhavebeennecessarytosecuretheUS
northernflankstrategy.SeveralmilitaryanalystsquotedinarecentbookabouttheColdWarinSweden
admittedthat“NATOhadabiggermotivetoinvadeSwedenthantheSoviets.”
Indeed,thankstothenewnavaldoctrine,theUSwasontheoffensive,theUSSRwasonthedefensive,
andaneutralstateprotectingSovietsassetsbehindSweden's1500kmflankwasideal–fortheUSSR.In
contrast,itwasnotintheUS’sinterest–withitsnewnorthernflankstrategy-thatSwedenremainneutral.
FortheUS,takinguppositionsinSwedenofcoursewasanexcellentdefensive-offensivemove,since
beingbasedinSwedenopenedupnotonlyforattackonthesubmarinebastions,butalsoexposedthe
SovietUnion'sentiresoftunderbelly,itsBalticcoast,toSweden-basedandaircraftcarrier-basedNATO
navalandairattacks.AnditiscompletelyinlinewiththeRoyalandUSNavy'smoreaggressiveforward
policy.
Sucha“friendly”move–orevenjustthethreatofamove-onSwedenwouldofcoursemakeSwedena
number1attacktargetfortheSovietsafteraNATOintervention–andwaslikelytobeextremely
opposedbyOlofPalme,hadhebeenaccuratelybriefedbyhismilitaryaboutwhatwasgoingon,whatthe
SwedishmilitaryandNATOwerecookingup.TheSovietswereabletoworkthisout,ofcourse.So
maybetheywouldhaveintervenedtopre-emptaNATOfriendlyoccupation,especiallyiftheyhadto
protecttheirpreciousBalticassets.Easiertobepre-emptivethandislodgeaNATOforcealreadydugin.
TheremusthavebeenalotofsecondguessingaboutwhattheopponentwasgoingtodointheNATOand
SovietHighCommands:who,ifanyone,wouldgrabthatstrategicbutunoccupiedchessboardspace
knownasSweden?Whowouldgettheirfirst?HowwouldtheSwedesreact?Whatwouldbethetrigger?
Wouldtherebearace?OrwouldbothsideshavepermittedSwedentostayneutral?Wasbothoreither
sidebluffingabouttheirplansforSweden?
TherewereseveraladvantagestoNATOofafriendlyNATOoccupationofSweden.Wehavementioned
itwouldprovidesupportagainsttheWesternnavies’subsdestructionoftheSovietsecondstrikecapacity
intheirBarentsandArcticlayers.ButtherewasanothervectorbywhichSwedencouldbeused.
IthasbeenallehedthatNATOplannedtousetheBaltictoattacktheUSSR’ssoftunderbelly–inaway
thatwouldinvolveSweden.In1992,AndersHasselbohmwroteanarticleforDagensNyheter,citinga
seniormilitarycommanderinNATOwhosaidthatthegeneralpublicweredeceivedaboutNATO'splans
inEurope.TheofficialNATOlinewasthat“TheaggressiveSovietUnionmustbepreventedfrom
bringingitsoversizedBalticfleetintothehighseas.”Thatwasjustacoverstory,saidHasselbohm's
NATOcontact.“Itwasjustathreatweconjuredup.InrealityweknewthattheSovietshadabsolutelyno
planstoleavetheBaltic.ThetruthisthatNATOplannedtobringhugefleetunitsintotheBalticand
attacktheSovietUnion'ssoftunderbelly.”
Inotherwords,anattackusingnotjustsubmarinesgoingafterSovietsubmarinesintheirbastionsonthe
“Arcticfront”–buttoattacktheSovietUnion’scitiesandmilitarybasesviathe“Balticfront”,with
Swedenoraircraftcarrierbasedbomberassets.Hasselbohmprovidesarareconcreteindication.Butthe
generalgistofNATO’splansareclearfromotheraccounts.WithoutmentioningSwedenspecifically–
perhapsheneverthoughttoask-Hennessywritesthatthe“RoyalNavyplayedanimportantpartinNATO
navies’aggressive,forwardaspects.”HequotedtheFirstSeaLord,AdmiralSirWilliamStavely,who
wrotein1984:“OurnuclearpoweredhunterkillersubmarinesandthoseoftheUnitedStatesarethe
platformsbestabletooperatewellforwardandthreatenthewholerangeofSovietsubmarinesandhigh
valuesurfaceunits”.
Thecommander-in-chiefofthenavalhomecommand,RoyalNavy,viceadmiralSirPeterStanford,said
ataconference–asquotedbyHennessy-afterthenewaggressivestrategyhadbeenorganised:“Itwill
beessentialtoconductforwardoperationswithattacksubmarines,aswellastoestablishbarriersatkey
worldchokepointsusingmaritimepatrolaircraft,mines,attacksubmarinesorsonarbuoys,toprevent
leakageofenemyforcestotheopenoceanwerethewesternalliance'sresupplylinescanbethreatened.
AstheBattleGroupsmoveforwards,wewillwageanaggressivecampaignagainstallSoviet
submarines,includingballisticmissilesubmarines.”
AsHasselbohm’scontactsuggested,allthiswasostensiblytopreventasurgeintotheAtlantic–butthe
realreasonwasoffensive.TherealplanwasnottopreventtheSovietsfromgettingoutoftheBaltic,but
occupyingtheBalticwithlargenavalforces,ifHasselbohm'scontactwasright.
OccupationofSwedenmayhavebeenpartofthis.Itisstilltoosecrettobedeclassified.
ButthedefenceofNorwaywasdefinitelypartofallthis–andthatispublicknowledge;itwasrevealed
byAdmiralStaveleyinaspeechin1984.ThecontrolofNorwayandtheNorwegianseawereboth
“indivisiblepartsofwhatmustbeseenasasubstrategyoftheentirenorthernregion,whichmustforma
coherentpartofNATO'soverallstrategy.”
ThattheBritishwereterrifiedofScandinavianleftwinggovernmentsthatmightupsetNATO’splansfor
NorthernEuropeisindicatedbyacampaignofheavypoliticalpressureaimedattheNorwegianNordli
andBrundtlandgovernmentsintheearly1980s,asrevealedbydeclassifieddocumentsfromtheNational
Archives.Thesadtruthisthatthemostimportantdecisionsmayneverhavebeenputonpaperatall.
FormerChairmanoftheUSJointChiefsofStaff,GeneralJohnVessey(1982–1985)toldTunanderata
dinnerin1989abouttheSwedish–USmilitaryties:“WhenitcomestoSweden,therewasonlyonerule:
Nothingonpaper,”hesaid.Wedon’thaveasimilarquotefromaBritishcommanderbut,givenBritain’s
habitualsecretiveness,thatisevenmorelikelytobetrue.
Still,thereissomeinterestingarchivematerial.Somehasbeenheldback,likethefileforAnglo-Swedish
relationsin1982.AbigcountrylikeBritaingeneratesavastvolumeofdiplomaticcorrespondenceon
everyconceivablesubject,fromhundredsofembassiesandotherbodies.Scandinaviahasareputationas
apeacefulbackwaterofthecoldwar.Thatcouldpartlyexplainwhynoneofthishasbecomepartofthe
“official”historyoftheColdWar.
1 0 .No rwayu n d erp ressu refro mNATO
BritishpoliticalbehaviourintheregionwasanythingbutflatteringtoBritain’sreputation.Perhapsall
greaterpowersbehavelikethattowardslesserpowers,intheDarwinianworldofgeopolitics.Aspartof
thenorthernflankstrategyagainstahithertopeacefulpartoftheworld,politicalpressurewasplacedon
theScandinavians,startingwithNorway.AnyNATOcampaigntosurgeintotheBalticatthebeginningof
aWorldWar3wouldhaverequiredNorwaytobeonsidefortheNorthernflankstrategytomaximiseits
likelihoodofsuccess.AsaNATOmember–unlikeSweden–thisshouldnormallynothavebeena
problem.But,intheearly1980s,theNorwegianLabourgovernmentwasdisplayingworryingsignsof
autonomy–BritishNATO-baseddiplomatscalledNorwaythe“wettest”and“weakest”memberofthe
alliance;thisatatimewhentheSchmidtgovernmentwasthoughttobeunsoundenough.Norway,which
carefullynurturedapeacefulrelationshipwiththeSovietUnionthroughouttheColdWar,wasexpectedto
embraceatougherapproach.
Thereweretworelatedissueshere:BritainhadtohaveafriendlygovernmentinchargeinNorwayforits
northernflankmilitarystrategy.Itwasalsoapoliticalmatter:Norway’sideascouldspread.Therewere
worriesthatNATOmemberNorway’spacifistapproachtodisarmamentquestionswouldspreadtoother
NATOcountries,wheregovernmentswerebattlinggeneralpublicslargelyhostiletoReagan,hisrhetoric
andhisoutplacementofeuromissiles.
Worse–NorwegianpacifismlookedasifitcouldbespreadingtoSweden,aswewillsee.
ThegoverningLabourparty,Arbeiderpartiet,wassplitrightdownthemiddle.OdvarNordli,theprime
minister,wasinfavourofNATO,buthewasunderpressurefromhispartyleftaswellassomeparty
intellectuals.
OdvarNordlihadbeentheLabourprimeministerofNorwaysince1976.HispartyhadruledNorway
virtuallysince1935.Asonofarailwayman,hard-workingandloyaltotheparty,hewasthebelieverina
strongstate,andspentNorway’sburgeoningoilincomeongenerouswelfarebenefitsandonexpanding
thehealthcaresystem.Underhispremiership,theNorwegianparliamentrejectedaproposalfromSweden
thattheNorwegianstatetakeashareinVolvoinreturnforSwedentakeashareofNorway’soil
resources.(TheenormousprofitsaccruedinthelattershowthatNorwaywasrighttorejectthedeal.)
UnderNordli,also,thetradeunionsincreasedtheirpowerallworkersweregivenfullpayfromthefirst
daytheytookoffsick.
WhileNordliseemstohavebeeninstinctivelyinfavourofcontinuingNATOmembershipwithout
queryingittoomuch,acoupleoftheradicalyoungerleftistministersandthinkersaroundNordlihad
thoughtlongandhardaboutthenuclearterrorbalance.NorwaywasamemberofNATO,andmorethan
manyNATOcountriesexposedtotherealitiesoftheColdWar,beingtheonlyEuropeanNATOcountry
withadirectlandborderwiththeSovietUnion,upinthefarNorth.Undertheinfluenceofthese
thinkers,theNorwegianLabourpartyhadmadeaproposalforanuclearweaponsfreezonein1980.It
alsodemonstratedscepticismtowardsthedoubletrackdecision,andnuclearweaponsgenerally.Butnot
everyonewasonboard.
So,ontheonehand,youhadtheOdvarNordlifaction:regardedasbeingproNATO.Ontheotherside
youhadastrongradicalleftwingintheNorwegianLabourparty,alienatedfromtheUnitedStatesbythe
horrorsoftheVietnamwar.TheleaderofthisfactionwasReiulfSteen,thechairmanoftheparty,close
toPalmeinhispacifistviews.Intheautumnof1980,Nordlidecidedtosupportthedeploymentoflong
rangemissilesinEurope.Thistookthepartymembershipbysurprise.Eventhoughthegovernmenthad
promisedtherewouldbenonuclearweaponsintimesofpeace,thedecisiontosupportthemissilessent
anangryshudderthroughthepartygrass-rootsandafiercedebateensued.Thepartyleftbecameeven
angrierwhenitemergedthattheNorwegiangovernmenthad,asfarbackas1977,covertlytakena
decisiontoallowthestockpilingofequipmentforNATOforcesinNorway.Thedecisionwastakenso
quietlynotevenmanyingovernmentwereawareoftheconsequencesofthedecision.Thefactthat
stockpiledequipmentwasfortheUSmarinesaddedtothecontroversy.AlthoughUSmarineshadcarried
outwinterandalpineexercisesinNorwayformanyyears,the“verynameUSAevokedtheimageof
burningVietnamesevillagesformanyNorwegians”,ascommentatorsputit.
EvenmanyLabour
partymemberswhosupportedNATOfeltthattheyhadn’tbeenproperlyconsulted,andputpressureon
Nordli,theprimeminister,thedefenceministerThorvaldStoltenbergandforeignministerKnut
Frydenlund.Thestockpilingwaspartofanagreementthatwouldalsohavemeantreceivingseveral
hundredalliedaircraftinNorwayintheeventofacrisisandtheuseofNorwegianairfieldsbyAmerican
carrieraircraft.
TheproandantiNATOsplitontheNorwegianleftwasprofoundandalsoreflectedNorwegianhistory.
SomeNorwegianshadfoughtontheAlliedsideinWorldWarII;theNorwegiangovernment,unlikethat
ofDenmark(andofcourseneutralSweden),wasbasedinLondonduringtheconflict.Norwegianagents
basedintheUKhadcarriedoutoneofthemostimportantcommandoraidsofthewar,againstthe
commercialplantthatproducedheavywaterforfertiliserproduction.Theplanthadbeenrequisitioned
bytheGermansasheavywater–waterwithanextraoxygenatom,chemicalformuladeuteriumoxide–
wasoneofthenecessarycomponentsoftheatomicbombtheNaziswereresearching.InFebruary1943,
onasecondattempt,Norwegiancommandosdestroyedthefacilityinadramaticfashionandwithitended
thepossibilitythatHitlerwoulddevelopanatomicbomb.TheNorwegianroleinworldwarII,fighting
thegoodfight,becameanimportantpartofthecountry’sself-identityafterit–Norwegianswerefondof
contrastingtheirownactiveroleintheSecondWorldWarwithDenmark’sandSweden’spassiveroles
(inSweden’scasepositivelypro-Germanroles).
AtthesametimeastherewasnostalgiaandaffectionfortheBritishconnection,theNorwegianshadhad
centuriesofessentiallypeaceful,pragmaticrelationswiththeRussians.Businesshadbeentransacted
betweenbusinessmen,fishermenandofficialsacrosstheNorthernCape,wherethetwocountries’
bordersmet,forcenturieswithoutmuchfuss.TherewasnoneofthehistoricmilitantRussophobiain
NorwaythatyousawincertainSwedishcircles,circlesthatfondlyreminiscedaboutSweden’sone-time
empireinnortheasternEurope,whichoncebeenconqueredattheRussians’expensebutlostwhenthe
RussiansadoptedinnovativeSwedishfightingtactics.(OlofPalmerepresentedastrongbreakwiththis
ancestralRussophobia.HewasoneoffewSwedeswhocouldreciteRussianpoetryintheoriginal
language)TheSovietshadliberatedNorthernNorwayfromtheNazisin1944,andactuallywithdrawna
yearlater.AlotofNorwegiansweregratefulforthat.Foralltheconflictthattookplaceinotherpartsof
theworldbetweenthetwosuperpowerblocs,Scandinaviahadbeenablessedlylowtensionarea.The
NorwegianshadarespectfulrelationshipwiththeRussians;whilemembersofNATO,theyforbadethe
stationingofNATOtroopsinNorwayinpeacetime.AlotofNorwegiansthoughtthatkeepingupthelow
tensionwasimportant.ReaganandThatcher,whowantedtodefeattheSovietUnion,notjustco-exist
withit,mayhavefeltdifferently.EnormouspressureonNorwaytotoethenewNATOhardlinewas
placedonNorwayatatimewhenNorwegianthinkerswereplanninginnovativewaystocreateworld
peace.TheNobelpeaceprize,lestweforget,isalwaysawardedinOslo.
Publicopinionwasdividedonstockpiling,justasitwasonthePershingorCruisemissiles:from58%in
favourofstockpilinginSeptember1980twojust42%twomonthslater.
ThefiguresforLabour
partyvoterswereevenlower.
TheradicalsoftheLabourpartyhadanunstatedaimtotakeNorwayoutofNATO,buttheirimmediate
objectivewasmorelimited:toensuretheabsenceofnuclearweaponsstationedinNorwaybothintimes
ofpeaceandwar,thenuclearfreezoneinotherwords.
AsdeclassifiedpapersfromtheBritishNationalArchivesshow,thisanti-nuclearpublicopinion,andthe
Labourleft,stronglyinfluencedNorwegiangovernmentpositionsinregularconsultationswiththerestof
NATO.InDecember1980,theBritishdelegateattheNuclearPlanningGroupofNATOinBrussels
(headquartersofNATO)complainedthattheNorwegiansaloneofallNATOstatesfailedtoendorse
MargaretThatcher’sdecisiontoupgradetheBritishnucleararsenalfromPolaristoTrident.He
remarked:“TheNorwegianpositionwasthatitwasinappropriatetobeotherthanneutralaboutasingle
government’sdecisionandthattheywerethereforeunabletogobeyondtheformulaagreedwhenthe
decisionwasannouncedinJulywhenexpressionappreciationforthebriefingreceived.”
TheBritishwereworried,presumably,thatNATOwouldnotonlyloseavaluableallyinScandinavia
butthenagginganxietythatNorwegianpacifismontheSovietUnionwouldbepopularamongthepublics
oftheotherNATOstatestoo.Norway’snuclearcautionbecameaproxyforgeneralissuesabout
Norway’spoliticalreliabilityasawesternally;whichiswhytheNuclearFreeZone–orindeedthelack
ofNorwegiansupportforTrident-becamesucharedflagissue.
TheBritishNATO-accrediteddiplomataddedthattheBritishwerenot“angry”withtheNorwegiansbut
adopteda“moderateandforcefultone”withthem.HealsotoldtheNATOdeskinWhitehallthatthere
was“widespreadsupportforourposition”elsewhereinNATO.“Therewaspressureonusnotto
disappointthemajoritywhohadshowntheywerepreparedtohavenotruckwiththeweakScandinavian
line.”
TheNorwegianssentnewwavesofanxietytwoweekslaterthroughNATOwhentheforeignminister,
KnutFrydenlund,returnedfromavisittoMoscowandbriefedhisNATOcolleaguesonthecloser
relationsthatweredevelopingbetweenMoscowandOslo.Everonthelookoutforaweakeningof
NATOsolidarityinthefaceofSovietcharmoffensives,aBritishdiplomatreportedthatFrydenlundhad
saidthatthe“twocountries’membershipofdifferentalliancesneednotprecludethedevelopmentof
closerrelationsonmattersofsharedinterest,notablytheirresponsibilityasneighbouringcoastalstates
forcooperationintheBarent’sSea.”FrydenlundreiteratedNorway’swillingnesstonegotiatea
compromisesolution,basedoninternationallaw,onboundaryquestions,andinvitedtheRussiansto
continuenegotiationsthathadcontinuedintermittentlysince1974.“TheNorwegianside,emphasisingthe
readinesstotakeaccountoftheinterestsofneighbouringstates,alsoproposedannualconsultationsat
officiallevelonpoliticalquestionsintheNorthernRegion.”
Thislastphrase–aboutconsultingwiththeRussians-seemedtobeasurrenderonNorway’sself-
determinationandLordCarrington,MargaretThatcher’sForeignSecretary,tooknote,inadispatchtohis
WashingtonambassadoraweekafterFrydenlund’svisittoBrussels.Carringtonwrote:
“WearegrowingincreasinglyconcernedaboutthegeneralNorwegianapproachtonucleardefencein
general”.“TheNorwegiangovernmentappearstoclaimthatsoftpedallingnuclearissuesaretheprice
theyhavetopayfortheireffortstoachievethestockpilingagreement.”
TheNorwegiannuclearfreezonehoweverdefined,hadititssuperficialattractionstoNorwegianpublic
opinion,butwas“atbestadangerousdiversionfrommoreseriousarmscontroleffortsinthealliance.”
Carringtonadded:“WethinkitimportanttoleavetheNorwegiangovernmentnoillusionsaboutour
concerns.IhavespokenstronglytoFrydenlundinthemarginoftheNATOministerialmeeting.”The
dangersCarringtonpresentedwere“theslipperyslopedangerofalliancenuclearpoliciesstartingto
unravelthroughchangesinindividualcountries”.“Theneedforalliedgovernmentstotaketheleadon
convincingtheirpublicopinionineastwestdefencerealities.Weallhavedomesticdifficultiesandall
needtosupporteachother’sefforts.”
CarringtonthenfiredoffalettertotheembassyinOslo,urging“rightthinkingpersonsinsidetheLabour
partytobesupported.”“ItseemsclearthattheNorwegiangovernmentlacksthecouragetostanduptothe
pressuresfromtheleftwingoftheLabourparty.”Headded,perhapsdisingenuously,“Wemustavoid
givingtheNorwegianstheimpressionthatwethinkweknowbetterhowtohandletheirdomestic
difficultiesthantheydo.”
TheBritishambassadorthoughtthatFrydenlund’sconsultationswiththeSovietscouldleavethe
NorwegiansopentoSovietblandishmentsandpromisesNorwaywouldbeleftaloneiftheydidn’t
interveneintheRussianAmericanfight.
JohnAusland,anforeignaffairsanalystbasedinOslo,explainedtothereadersoftheTimesofLondon
thepoliticalclimateinNorwayatthistime:“Norwegiansarebecomingincreasinglyconcernedwiththe
strategicconsequencesoftheirlocation.ThismakesthemnotonlyaneighbouroftheSovietUnion,
whichmostNorwegiansfearanddistrust,italsoplacesthemonthedoorstepofthebigbasecomplexin
theMurmanskarea….GiventheimportanceofthewaterstotheSouthandWestofNorway,most
NorwegiansbelievethattheRussianscovettheirland.AvocalminoritybelievesthatthePentagonplans
touseNorwaytoattacktheSovietUnion.”
AsthisgeneralNATOdissatisfactionwithNorwayrumbledon,therewasabigpoliticaldevelopmentin
Norway.Nordli,whohadsufferedfrommigrainesforalongwhile,resigned,citingillhealth.Åsne
Seierstad,aNorwegianjournalist,writesinherrecentbookaboutNorwegianpoliticsthat“windsof
changewereblowingfromAmericaandEngland”.Withoutgoingintomuchdetail,sheexplainsthat
Nordliwasundoneby“buzzingandintriguing”.“Thepoliticalmoodswinginthecountrycoincidedwith
escalatingintriguesinthepartyleadership.Thewhisperingincornersbecameabuzz,anddissatisfaction
inthepartyrefusedtobequelled.”
AttheendofJanuary1981,thepartypressofficeissuedastatementdeclaringthatNordliwishedto
resign.Seierstadwritesthat“theoldprimeministerhadnottakenpartinthedecisionandwishedtodeny
it.Butthingsweremovingtoofast.Itwasanambush,acoup,andNordli,knownasakindman,wastoo
loyaltothepartytodenounceitinthemedia.Hegrittedhisteethandconcededdefeat.”
AfterNordli’sdeparture,therewasafiercestruggleforthesoulofthepartybetweentheleftistanti-
NATOReiulfSteenandtheBritishdiplomats’favouredcandidate,themore“moderate”pro-NATOGro
HarlemBrundtland,a40-year-olddoctorwhohadbeendeputyleaderoftheNorwegianLabourparty
beforebeingawardedthepremiership.Asaministeroftheenvironment,shehadtakentheleadonanoil
spillissueintheseventies,coordinatingrescueefforts,andpreventedtheexpansionofhydropowerinthe
Norwegianfells,allofwhichboostedhercredentialswiththeemergingGreenmovement.
ShewasalsooneofthefirstprominentfemalepoliticiansofanyEuropeancountry.(Thatcher,ofcourse,
precededherbytwoyears...buttherewerealmostnoothers.)Asonecommentatorsaidwhenshewas
appointedprimeminister,thefirstfemaleprimeministerinScandinavia“waswelcomedbywomenand
noticedbythepressfromaroundthewholeworld.”TheTimesofLondonsaidthather“easycharm
disguisedaforcefulpersonality”witha“clear,forcefulwayofsayingthings.”
believedtowanttosteerNorwegianpoliticsinamoreproNATOdirection(eventhoughshewasa
NorwegianLabourpartypolitician,herhusbandwasathink-tankpro-NATOconservative),butitwas
alsothoughtshewouldstruggletobringthewholeofherpartywithher.
InasecretminutewritteninDecember1980,twomonthsbeforeheraccession,theBritishambassadorto
Oslowrote:
“Weshouldbefullyawareoftheimportantandpositive(inalliedinterests)rolewhichGroHarlem
BrundtlandandherhusbandOlav(amemberiftheconservativepartyandoftheNorwegianChatham
House)canplayintryingtostopthisnonsense.”Thenonsensebeingthenuclearfreezone.The
ambassadorcitedGro’sanxietyaboutastatementfromtheNorwegiangovernmentthattheNorwegian
people’ssecuritywasparamountandNorwegiandefencepolicywasdesignednottoprovoke.The
ambassadorthoughtthenon-provocativeNorwegiandefencepolicy,inadditiontoNorwegians’“innate
neutralism”meantthat,ifwarcamebetweenNATOandtheUSSRtherewasadangerthatthe“Warsaw
pactattackwouldleaveNorwaybehindenemylineswithoutfiringashot.”Brundtland,itwashoped,
wouldputastoptothat.
Theambassadorcontinuedspeculatingthat,inapre-warsituation,“TheSovietambassadorcouldtellthe
Norwegiangovernmentthatthe‘USSRrespectedNorway’sdeterminationtodefenditselfinanon-
provocativeway.TheSovietUnionhasnointentionofviolatingNorwegiansovereigntyandhopedthat
NorwaywouldinterveneintheSovietUnion’squarrelwiththeUnitedStates.Otherwise...’The
ambassadoradded:“TheNorwegiangovernmentmightnotrejectsuchanapproach.”GroHarlem
Brundtlandwasclearlyanimprovement:she“clearlyandrightlywantsNorwaytohaveallitsoptions
openintheeventofwar;andpreferablytheoptiontoplaythepartrequiredofitinNATO.”
Referringtothecoupleinunusuallyfamiliarfirstnameterms,theambassadorconcludedthat“We[the
British]shouldprovideGroandArne-Olav(aswellasallright-thinkingNorwegiansbothinsideand
outsidetheLabourparty)withalltheinformationwecantosupporttheircause.”
GrowasclearlythehorseBritainwasplanningtoback.However,theBritishwereverywellawarethat,
eventhoughshehadbeenvotedinaspartyleader–andthereforeactingprimeminister–theantiNATO
forcesinpartyandcountrywerestillstrong.OneBritishdiplomatwrotethat“Itistemptingtothinkthat
MrsBrundtlandwillgainsuchagripontheLabourPartyshewillbeabletosteerdiscussionattheparty
conferencescheduledfor1Aprilmoretowardsdomesticissues.Butevenifshedoes,theradicalleft
havegotthenuclearfreezonebitsofirmlybetweentheirteeththatfewobserversherecontemplatethe
Aprilmeetingwithoutthenuclearaspectretainingitshighprofile.”
Whitehallspeculatedwhetheritwouldbeworth“encouraging”amediacampaignintheBritishpressto
encouragetheNorwegianstoadapttheirplanstotakeintoaccountwiderEuropeanconsiderations–code
forlettingthebigstatesrunEast-Westrelations–ratherthanpursuingtheirowncampaign.
TherewasafirmrecommendationthattheNorwegiansshouldbelefttoknowinnocertaintermsthat
otherNATOstateswereopposedtoNorwegianplans.Thereshouldbea“reasonedstatementinthenext
NATOcouncilonthedangersandobjectionstotheNorwegianideasinalltheirvariantssothatthe
NorwegiangovernmentareleftinnodoubtofthescopeoftheanxietiesofNorway’smainallies.”It
added:“TherewouldbeanadvantageinmakingthestatementsoonwhileMrsBrundtlandisstill
assessingheroptions.”TheBritishworriedthat,attheLabourpartyconference,ReiulfSteen,thoughhe
hadlosthisministerialpost,wasstilllikelytotakethechair.
SteenwasabitofabugbearforBritishdiplomats.OnoneoccasionwhenSteenwaschallengedby
NorwegianjournalistsexactlywhathemeantbynuclearfreezoneinScandinavia–whetheritwouldbe
usedtoextractcompromisesfromtheSoviets,sincetheKolapeninsulawasheavilyarmed,hesaid:“One
mustbeflexibleinthewayoneapproachesthis.”ThiswasnotedbytheBritishembassyinOslo.One
angryBritishdiplomatcalledhim“wet”.
SoeventhoughBrundtlandtendedtosteerNorwayinapro-NATOdirection,thewarningstothe
Norwegianscontinued,inordertohelpnudgeBrundtlandintherightdirectionandhelpneutraliseSteen
andotherleftistvoices.DouglasHurd,laterBritishforeignsecretary,atthetimesecretaryofstatefor
foreignaffairs,waspaidavisitbyJohanJorgenHolst,statesecretaryattheNorwegiandepartmentof
defence,on10March1981.Holstwasanimportantfigure–farclevererthanSteen-andHurdclearly
usedhimasaconduittoputtheBritishmessageacross.HewastoldaboutNorway’s“studiedly
ambiguousrole”which“underminedthenewAmericanadministration’seffortsofarmscontrol”aswell
asstrengtheningtheanti-nuclearmovementeverywhere.Followingbilateralnegotiationswiththe
Germans,FrenchandAmericans,Britishdiplomatspresentedadetailed”oralstatement”aboutthesebig
powers’jointconcernsabouttheproposaland“wishtoseethematterdiscussedwithintheNATO
alliance”.
Afewdayslater,ataconclaveofforeignministers
inBrussels,therewas“virtuallyunanimous
criticismofthewaytheNorwegianswerehandlingtheissue.”“Wearenowconsideringwhatfurther,if
anything,needstobedonewiththeNorwegians”,theBritishbriefingsaidmenacingly.Itwassuggested
toHurdthathetelltheNorwegianstosettheirproposalinawiderEuropeancontext,whileatthesame
timeputtingitacrossinawaythatwouldnotrisktheaccusationthattheUKwasmeddlinginNorwegian
affairs.
Holst,incidentally,wasadislikedfigureinWhitehall.AtanarmsreductionconferenceinMadridin
February1981hehelda“deplorablyweak,wafflyandcompromisingperformanceinanafterdinner
discussionattheNorwegianembassywithSovietandPolishdelegatesaswellasnon-alignednations.
Thereportsofwhichhavegonetocapitals-certainlytoWashingtonandBonn-andwillhavenogoodat
alltoHolst’schancesofeverbecomingsecretarygeneralofNATO.”TheambitiousHolstneverdidget
thatpost;buthedidgettobecomeNorwegianforeignminister,andin1994negotiatedtheOsloaccords
betweenPalestineandIsrael.Hewasclearlyatalentedman;eventhoughtheBritishhadtakenadislike
totheNorwegianSocialDemocrat.
“Deplorablyweakandwaffly”?WhatathreatHolstmusthavebeen!Truthbetold,whileSteencouldbe
dismissedasafirebrand,Holstwasaneloquentspokesmanforapeaceful,demilitarisedrelationshipin
ScandinaviawiththeUSSR;asituationthathadlongprevailedandwhichhe,withoutprejudicingthe
relationshipwithNATO(hesaid),hopedtobeatemplateforSovietrelationswiththerestofEurope.He
calledthispolicyNordpolitik(inanodofSchmidt’sandBrandt’sOstpolitik):anOstpolitik,orpeace
politics,fortheNorthernFlank.Itwas,ofcourse,indirectconflictwiththeUStheReagan
administration’swarpolicy,withspecialreferencelatertoanaggressiveapproachintheNorthernflank.
Intheautumnof1981,Holst,gaveafullaccountofwhathehopedtoachieveinanessayinthe
prestigiousAmericanforeignpolicyjournalForeignAffairswhichmusthavesentawaveofirritation
throughtheUSandBritishnavalestablishments,focusedastheywereontheirnewnorthernflank
strategy..
ItpresentedanindependentforeignpolicyfortheNorthernflank,basedonthemaintenance
oflowtensionandpracticalcooperationwiththeSovietUnion-exactlytheoppositeofthenorthernflank
strategywhichsoughttoexploittheSovietUnion'svulnerabilitiesinthearea.
Holst,whetherornothewasawareofAmericancovertoperationsinScandinavia,sawtherelative
peacefulnessoftheNorthernFlankasamodeltoextendtotherestofEurope.Theysawinthisopening
throughwhichtherestofEuropemightfollowNorway'sNordpolitik,ornorthernpolitics.JustasWest
GermanyhadopenedupadialoguebasedonrespectofcoexistencewithEastGermanyandtheEastBloc
intheseventies,arelationshipthathadweakenedwiththedeparturesofitsmainproponentWilliBrandt
(whoincidentallyspenthiswartimeyearsinNorwayandspokefluentNorwegian),Norwaywasgoingto
dothesameinthe1980s.
InHolst'sownwords:"ThefederalgovernmentofGermanythroughanimaginativeOstpolitikplayedan
importantroleintheevolutionofthepoliticalorderinEuropeduringacriticalperiod(theearly1970s).
NorwayconfrontsthechallengeofformulatinganequallyimaginativeOstpolitikandthepreceding
analysishassuggestedsomeofitsthemesandelements.Therearestrongstructuralsimilaritiesbetween
theGermanandNorwegiantasksandapproaches.Thebuildingblocksincludegroundrulesforamodus
vivendiandpracticalmeasuresofcooperation.TheconditionoflowtensionintheNorthconstitutesthe
establishedmodusvivendiwhichhastobestrengthenedbyabroaderpatternofmutualrestraintinorder
tocopewiththeprocessesofchange."
HolstadmittedthattheKolaPeninsulawasimportantmilitaryfortheSoviets.Over200interceptor
aircraftwerebasedthereaswellas30ground-to-airmissilestations.TheKolaPeninsulawasthehome
partareaofthestrongestofthefourSovietfleets,theNorthernFleet,whichplayeda"keyroleinthe
SovietUnion'sglobalnavalpower."Some70majorsurfaceshipsand130attacksubmarineswerebased
there.Theywereimportantforbeinglinkedtosovietnavaldeploymentselsewhereintheworld.These
submarinesconstitutedtheSovietnuclearballisticmissilefleet.
WhileNorwaywastheoreticallyanattractivetargetfortheSovietsbecausetheyneededtoprotecttheir
missilecarryingsubmarinelaunchzonesintheBarentsSea,therewereotherindicationsthatspoke
againstanoffensiveSovietstance:theconcentrationofforcesonanarrowcoastalstripmeanttheSoviets
werevulnerabletoNATOcounterattack.Thiswouldtempertheenthusiasmforusingmilitaryforceto
acquirelimitedgainsinthearea.Inaddition,therewere"enormousproblemsofcoordination"evenifthe
movesweredisguisedasexercises.Outofthereciprocalsenseofrestraintthatsofarcharacterisedthe
northernflank,neithersidemaintainedpermanentnavalpatrolsintheNorwegianSea.Bothsides
maintainedregularairpatrolsofunarmedaircraftintheNorwegianSea,allowingthemtolookoutfor
potentialthreats.Theabsenceoftheseloweredtensions.ThefactthatNorwegianaircraftwere
responsibleforpatrolsintheBarentsSearatherthanAmericanaircraftwasanotheraspectofthepattern
oftacitrestraintthathadhithertoexistedonthenorthernflank.
NoNATOmanoeuvrestookplaceintheNorthernNorwegiancountyofFinnmarkadjacenttotheSoviet
Unionforthesamereason.Thebiggestrestraintwasofcoursetheunilateralpolicyagainstthestationing
offoreigntroopsinNorwayinpeacetime.Inadditiontherewasapolicyofbanningthestockpilingor
deploymentofNATOnuclearandchemicalweaponsonNorwegiansoilinpeacetime.
WhatdidtheNorwegiansgetinreturn?TheSoviets,incontrasttotheNorwegians,didnotidentifyan
explicitauthorityofrestraint;theirsignalswere"vagueanduncertain".ButNorwayrealisedthat
reciprocityandrestraintwereessentialfortheevolutionofastableEast-Westrelationshipandprogress
inarmscontrol.
ThereweresomeencouragingsignsinwhattheSovietsweredoing.SovietgroundforcesontheKola
peninsulaswerelimitedinsizecomparedtowhatwasneededforanoffensiveagainstNorway.Numbers
hadbeenconstantfortwodecades;withonlymarginalchangestakingplacewhenSovietunitswere
restructured.Therewerenofighterbombersstationedthereandfewtacticalaircraft.(Itwasnotclear
whetherHolstknewabouttheSovietbastionstrategy.)
HolstpointedoutthatmajorSovietexercisesintheKolaPeninsulainrecentyearshadnotincluded
manoeuvreforcessuchasairbornetroopsormarineinfantryunits.Holstsawthisashopefulsignalsthe
Sovietsweresendingwithoutstatingitinwords:“Suchanotioniscentraltothebroadernotionof
Nordpolitik."
AlthoughSovietforceswerepreponderantinScandinavia,thiswasrelatedtotheglobalequilibrium,as
MurmanskfactoredintotheglobalarmsbalancebetweentheUSAandUSSR.Establishingaregional
militarybalance-byaddinglargerNATOpresence-wouldcreateunwelcometensioninthenorthanda
"challengetheSovietUnioninthelargercalculus".Norwaydidnotwishtobecomeavictimofthis;there
wasmoretointernationalrelationsthanmilitarysafetyandcompetitionbetweenthegreatpowers.Holst
wrotedefiantly:SmallstatessuchasNorwayalsohavearighttopursuetheirinterests.NATOwasa
guarantor,butthatguaranteelayinrapidreinforcementsratherthanpermanentforwardstationing.Inhis
essay,hetalksabouttheimportanceofnegotiatingfishingareasintheBarentsSeaandthelegalstatusfor
thewatersofftheSvalbardarchipelago."ManagementoffishstocksrequiresSovietNorwegian
cooperationsincetheyconstitutesocalledjointstocksmigratingthroughareasofbothNorwegianand
Sovietjurisdiction."ThemostimportantexamplewastheArcticcodwhichspawnedalongthecoastof
NorwaybutspentmostofitslifecycleintheBarentsSea.Codwasnottheonlyissue.Foroilandgas
resourcedistributionitwasimportanttoresolvethelineofdelimitationintheBarentsSea,andtalkshad
beenongoingsince1970.Whiletalkshadbeentough,Holstfeltthattheoveralltaskamountedto
"preservingstabilityandbalanceinthearea.Willingnesstoexercisemutualrestraint,toseparatethe
issuesandtoseekequitablecompromisearenecessaryaspectsofaconstructiveNordpolitik."Itis
equallyimportanttopreserveacoherentvisionoftheframeworkwithinwhichadjustmentsanadaptations
toalteredcircumstancescantakeplace”.Inotherwords,agood,healthy,peacefulrelationshipovernon-
militaryandsecurityissueswasestablishedwiththeSoviets.
HolstwroteenthusiasticallythatNorwayandtheSovietUnionwereinapositionto“broaden
cooperationinseveralareasinadditiontothecoreareaoffisheries.Increasedactivityatseawill
increasetheneedforcooperationinseaandrescueoperations.”Similarlytherecouldbeenvironmental
collaboration.Norwayhadmovedintothevanguardofmoderntechnologyforoffshoreoperations–and
thisconstitutedanareaoffutureindustrialcooperationwiththeSovietUnion.“Expandedcooperationin
allthesefieldscouldreducethesharpnessofconflictinthesecurityfield.”Thatpresupposedalowest
possiblelevelofmilitaryforceinordertoweakentheroleofmilitarypowerintherelationshipbetween
thesmallandthelargepowers.“ItwillremainaprimaryobjectiveforNorwegiansecuritypolicyto
preventandameliorateconflictsthatcouldresultinintensifiedconflictandtensionintheNorthern
area.”
AllthistookofrespectforandcollaborationwiththeSovietUnionwasboundtoraisehackles,andHolst
wasnotafraidtoproclaimhismessage,notonlyinjournalsbutalsoinpersonalmeetingswithBritish,
AmericanandEuropeandiplomats.AftertheMadridsummitwherehisspeechtotheRussianshad
promptedBritishdiplomatstoremarkthatthismadehimunfittoleadNATO,HolstwenttoLondonto
meetHurdandMoberly,anotherofficialintheForeignOffice.HolstmadeNorway’scaseforcefully:he
wascriticaloftheReagangovernment.Itwasimportant,inarmscontrol,toavoidpaintingtheSoviets
intoacorner.HehadrecentlyvisitedMoscow.Itshouldn’tbetoohardtofindwaysofsafeguardingthe
interestsofbothsides.HolstsaidherecognisedthattherewerethoseinWashingtonwhowereagainst
the“madmomentumofarmscontrol”.TheWesthadnowinvestedconsiderablepoliticalcapitalinthe
process.“Thatwasnotappreciatedbythoseofanacademicpersuasioncaughtupinthepoliticalprocess
inWashington.”TheBritishdiplomatsaidthatitwouldbe“usefultodiscussthisatNATOlevelina
systematicway”towhichHolstrepliedthatsuggestionsofNATObullyingofNorwaywouldonly
encourageoppositiontotheallianceinNorway.WhenmeetingHurdlaterthatsameday,Holstexplained
thatBrundtland’sforcefulcommentsbackingNATOhadclearedtheairinNorwaysomewhat,andHurd
agreedthiswasuseful,astheNorwegianstancehadbeenworrying.TheUKwasconcernedthatthe
allianceshouldbevisiblysearchingforastableEast/Westrelationship,includingarmscontrol.Separate
ideasbyindividualallies–read,Norway-ledtoweaknessandalarm,saidHurd.
HolstwasnottheonlyvoiceassertingtheNorwegianrighttoconductitsownrelationswiththeSoviet
UnionandtrytomaintainatolerablelevelofpeaceintheNorth.#
AlthoughBrundtlandhadsucceededNordliasprimeministerwithamorepro-NATOstance,themore
SovietfriendlyforeignministerFrydenlundwasstillinhisposr.InMay1981,Carringtonmet
Frydenlund,fortalks.
Oblivioustotheeffectthiswouldhave,ormaybehewasn’t,Frydenlundpaintedapictureofimproving
Norwegian-Sovietrelations.HehadvisitedMoscowinDecember1980andGromyko,theSovietforeign
minister,hadgoneoutofhiswaytobenice.Aftertheirmeeting,Moscowhadexpressedthedesireof
closercooperationwithNorway.FrydenlundthoughttheSovietswereafraidofbeingisolatedinEurope.
Therewasasearchforpracticalmeanstoworktogether.NormallytheSovietswereslowtorespondto
anyNorwegianproposalsforcooperation,butnowtheyweregettinganswersbetweenthreetofivedays-
veryquickly.TheNorwegianshadworkedhard,saidFrydenlund,tocommunicatethefactthatthe
expulsionofacoupleofSovietdiplomatsforindustrialspyingwasnotmeantasanegativesignal.The
SovietscouldhavestayedhadnottheircontactthreatenedtogopublicunlesstheNorwegiangovernment
madeamove.
CarringtonseemedtohavelistenedtoallthisRusso-Norwegianclosenesswithirritation.Heasked
whethertheNorwegianshadagreedtoconductpoliticaltalkswiththeRussians.Frydenlundsaidcontacts
haddroppedoffinthepastbecauseofNorwayreluctancetoschedulemeetingsonaregularbasisbutnow
Norwayhadsuggestedannualconsultationsattheofficialleveltodiscussthepracticalproblemsoftwo
neighbouringcountries.TheyalsodifferedoverPoland:FrydenlundpredictedtheRussianswouldnotgo
inoncetheyhadrealisedhowhatedtheywereonAfghanistan,WhileCarringtonpredictedtheRussians
wouldgoinasalastresort.(Theyneverdid,ofcourse:Polanddeclaredmartiallawandtookcareofthe
problemitself.)TheyalsodifferedoverSpain’sentryintoNATO;Spainhadbeenadictatorship,hence
Norway’slongoppositiontoSpanishmembership.Carringtonagaindisagreed:NATOmembershipmight
exposetheSpanishgeneralstolifeoutsideSpain.Therewastheobviousadvantageofbringingthe
Spanishintothewiderinternationalcommunity.FrydenlundthencomplainedthatinNATOcouncils,the
bigcountriesweregivenhalfanhourtospeak,whilenoonelistenedwhenthesmallercountriesspoke.
Carringtonthenaskedaboutthestateofanuclearfreezone;TheGermanswouldaskwhytheyshould
havenuclearweaponsontheirsoil–weaponswhichhadkeptthepeacefor30years.TheRussians
wouldcertainlyhavemovedinifonlyconventionalweaponshadexisted.EchoingPalmeinSweden,
Frydenlundsaid“we”(intheWest)neededtorethinkourwholenuclearsituation.Thenumberofnuclear
weaponswasincreasinginEurope,increasingtheriskoftheiraccidentaluse,andthiswasareasonfor
rethinkingthestrategy.CarringtonsaidthatuncertaintyaboutwhethertheWestwouldusenuclear
weaponsornothadkeptthepeace.
HehopedthestagewouldnotarisewheretherewouldbeacertaintythattheWestwouldnotusenuclear
weapons.Frydenlundsaidhehopedforeastwestarmsreduction;Carringtonsaidhewasworriedabout
thepiecemealNorwegianapproach.Frydenlundsaidhethoughtitwasdifficulttoacceptthatnuclear
weaponshadtobeacceptedsimplybecauseofSovietconventionalsuperiority.IftheSovietshad
superiortanks,surelyitwouldbepossiblefortheWesttodevelopbetteranti-tankweapons?Carrington
doubteditwasfeasibletospendmoreondefence;whatworriedhimwastheprospectofatwotier
alliance,withNorwayandsomeothercountriesexcusingthemselvesfromnuclearresponsibilities.
FrydenlundsaidtheNorwegianprojectwouldonlygoaheadwithapprovalofthealliance:the
NorwegianofferwasininputoroffertoconductnegotiationsinthewholeofEurope;heagain
emphasizeddomesticdifficulties.
Themeetingendedwithoutagreement,andaweeklatertheNorwegianfederationoftradeunions,LO,
votedtosupportaresolutionthattheuseofnuclearweaponswillneverbepermittedfromoron
Norwegianterritory.Brundtlandputonabraveface,andtheLOresolutioncouldnotoverridethe
manifesto,but,asadiplomaticobserverputit,the“muchvauntedunityhadalreadyfallenapartandthe
Norwegiangovernmenthadeggonitsface.”
TheUKpermanentrepresentativetoNATOblastedNorwayinareporton26May1981.“Norwayis
traditionallyviewedasoneoftheWetswithanenthusiasmfordétenteandarmscontrolwhichis
unmatchedbytheadequateprovisionofdefencecapabilities.ThegeneralviewinNATOisthatNorway’s
forcesaremaldeployedandpoorlyequipped.GivenBritain’scommitmenttodefenceNorwayinwar,it
wasabitmuchthattheNorwegiancriticisedarecentdecisiontoreduceRoyalMarinetrainingin
Norway.Norway’spoliticalrolewaspositivelyunhelpful,softeningPershingmissilecommuniquésand
seeingarmscontrolasanendinitself.TheydidnotsupporttheBritishTridentandappliedtheirown
politicalandmoralstandardstoalliessuchasTurkeyandSpain.”HearguedtheBritishwereentitledto
takeafirmlinewiththeNorwegians.
AworryingdevelopmentforNATOtookplaceon21Maywhentherewasameetingoftheliaison
committeeoftheScandinavianSocialDemocratparties.Britishdiplomatscomplainedthatthecommon
statementissuedfollowingthemeetingwhichtookplaceinSweden.Thecommuniquécalledforabanon
theuseofnuclearweaponsinaguaranteerootedintheUN.Thecommitteeconsideredthestandstillin
disarmamentnegotiationsa“dangerousdevelopmentwhichmustbereversed”.
ABritishdiplomat,AndrewPalmer,commentedthatthiswasanotherblowforMrsBrundtlandwhohad
returnedhome,accordingtoreportshereceived,fromthetradeunionresolutionvoteina“fearfulrage”.
Itwasclearthattheproblemofpacifism–andmaybewillingnessforgoodrelationshipswiththeSoviet
Union–wasnorrestrictedtoNorway.Swedenwascatchingthebugtoo.ThenextweektheBritish
dispatchedsomeofficialstoStockholmtotakesoundingsofopinionthere.Therightofcentregovernment
underPrimeMinisterThorbjörnFälldinwasstillincharge;Palme’sSeptember1982electionvictory
wasstillmorethanayearaway.Thepermanentundersecretaryatthedefenceministry,SvenHirdman,
wasunconcerned:amongNordicforeignministers,therewasnobasisforanagreementforanuclearfree
zone;NorwegianpreconditionsweretiedtogeneraldevelopmentsacrossEuropeandwouldnotbe
realiseduntiltheverydistantfutureifatall.
AfarmorealarmistpicturecamefromtheotherSwedishpoliticiantheBritishtalkedto:CarlBildt,who
hadyettocowritethefraudulentreportaboutSovietsubmarinesthattorpedoedPalme’sforeignpolicy
approach.Thatwas18monthsaway.Nowhewasbeingapproachedinhiscapacityasdefence
spokesmanoftheModerateparty.Britishdiplomatscommented:“Bildtputthingsinamuchmoresober
perspective.”BildtsaidtherewasnodoubttheNorwegiandebatehadstruckachordwithpublicopinion
inSweden.BildttoldtheBritish:
“TheSwedishSocialDemocrats,despitetheiroutwardrobustnessonsecurityissues,weresufferingfrom
aninfectionbyNorwegianideas.”.
BildtsaidtheSocialDemocratswereplanningapeaceoffensivecoveringvariousaspectsofdétenteand
disarmamentanditwouldbeanimportantplankintheirelectioncampaign.InHelsinki,speakingto
Finnishofficials,Britishofficialswerepresentedwithyetanotherpicture:thattheStockholmmeetingof
NordicSocialDemocratswasindangerofsparkingoffsomethingnew,thattheNorwegianideaswere
spreading.TheBritishdiplomat,RonaldNash,summarisedhisvisittoStockholmandHelsinki:“This
evidenceofagrowingNordicnetworkisdisquieting.Themovementseemssettoexpandinamanner
whichwillmakeitincreasinglydifficultforustogettheNorwegianpeaceplansasdiscreetlyburiedas
wewouldprefer.”
PalmewastobeatthecentreofthisindependentNordicpeacenetwork–anetworkwhichtuggedat
Norway’sloyaltiestoNATO.
Anyway,BritishfearsaboutNorwayappeartorecedeaftertheNorwegianelectionofSeptember1981,
whichtherightwingKaareWillochtookover,makingGroHarlemBrundtland’sdifficultieswiththe
peacenikleftofherpartyamootissue.Shelosttheelection;incame,forthenextfiveyears,the
conservativecoalitionledbyprotoThatcheriteprimeministerWilloch,whorealignedNorwaywith
NATOgoals.“ManywouldundoubtedlyclassifyWillochasahawkindefenceandforeignpolicy.He
believedindisarmamentnegotiationsfromapositionofstrengthoftheWest,”wroteapolitical
biographer.
TheheadlineintheNewYorkTimesafterWilloch’selectionvictorywas:“Votersshifttotheright,
bolsteringNATO’snorthernoutpost”.
Willochwasdescribedas“52-year-oldsupplysideeconomist”
theconsequenceofwhoseelectionwouldleadtowhatWillochcalled“greaterclarityandlessscopefor
misunderstandinginNorway’sforeignpolicyanditsdefenceposture.America’spaperofrecord
continued,accurately:“Theoutgoingprimeminister,GroHarlemBrundtland,andherpredecessor
OddvarNordli,bothsufferedgrievouslyinattemptingatthesametimetomaintaintheircountry’s
commitmenttoNATOandpacifytheparty’sneutralistleftwing.”TheNewYorkTimescontinued:“Mr
Willoch,awareofdeepanti-nuclearfeelinginthecountry,whichhasneverallowednuclearweaponsto
bepositionedhere,saidduringthecampaignthatifthegreatpowersagreedtorefrainfromusingthe
bombinNorwaythatwouldsuithimfinebuthesaidnothingaboutpressingforinclusionofanuclearfree
zoneinSovietAmericandiscussion,andhegavetheimpressionhewouldjustbehappytodropthe
subject.”WillochpledgedmoreovertoincreaseNorway’sdefencespendingby4percentannuallyinreal
terms,1percentabovethetargetsetbytheReaganadministration.IncontrastWestGermanyscaleddown
itscommitmentandDenmark,aftermonthsofhaggling,agreedtoincreasespendingbyonly1percenta
yearand0.5percentin1983and1984.
TheBritishembassyinOslolikedWilloch.Hewasamanwhocombined“intellectualpowersanda
degreeofpopularappealthatwasunexpected.”ItwasthefirstconservativegovernmentinNorwaysince
1928.TheBritishwerestillworriedthattheLabourparty,whichwasnowinopposition,couldcause
trouble.AndworriedaboutSwedentoo,wherealeftistgovernmentwasintheoffing.
Soitproved.AyearafterWillochwaselected–whichpleasedtheBritishandAmericans–theBritish
andAmericansreceivedasetbackfortheirpolicieswhentheleftistOlofPalmewontheelectionof1982,
withthebiggestmajorityhehadeverhad.Therewereproblemswiththeeconomythatheinherited,but
Palmearguablyshowedhisprioritiesduringhisopeningofparliamentspeech,wherehesetouthis
agendaforthenextthreeyearsofgovernment,thattheoldNorwegianidea,peaceanddisarmamentwasat
thetopofPalme’sagenda.Itwasthefirsttopicofhisspeech,aheadofemploymentandeconomic
reform.
Withinaweek,aswehaveseen,thedramaticsubmarineintrusionsatHårsfjärdenhadseverelydamaged
thecredibilityofPalme’sforeignpolicyofneutrality.Sixmonthslatercamethereportcoauthoredby
BildtthataccusedtheUSSR,onnoforensicevidence,ofbeinganaggressiveforceinNorthernEurope;it
WidénedtheriftbetweentheUSSRandScandinaviaandmorethananythingfinallysankthecredibilityof
Palme’szoneofpeace,anideathathadtravelledfromNorwaytoSweden,whereitwastakenupwith
evenbiggeralacritythaninNorway,wheretheideawasstrenuouslyopposedbytheBritishgovernment.
Thediplomaticarchivesdon’tyetrevealwhattheBritishthoughtofPalme’sinitiative.Unlikethepapers
onNorway,therelevantBritishnationalarchivepapersonSwedenareclosedfortheyear1982for
“reasonsofnationalsecurity”;ieitwouldbeembarrassingforBritain’sreputationiftheinformationwere
madepublic.ItisreasonabletoassumetheBritishactedinanequallyoffensive–ifnotmoreoffensive–
waytocounteracttheSwedishdesireforaccommodationwiththeUSSR,tocounteractthespreadingof
whatBildtcalledthe“Norwegianinfection”:thepoliticallydestabilisingsubmarineintrusion.
11 .Ash o rth isto ryo fUSCo v erto p eratio n s
IftheBritishandAmericanswantedtoalterthepoliticalbalanceofforcesinacountrythroughacovert
operation,itwouldbefarfromthefirsttimethishappened.AmericancovertoperationsinEuropeas
recentlyasthe1980sisatotaltaboo.
ButitremainsafactthattheUSAhasintervenedinforeigncountries-attheveryleastinnon-European
states.NonEuropeanoperationsaremuchlesssensitive;muchispublicknowledge.Thinkofthe
investigationsbytheCongressionalChurchcommittee(ledbyIdahoDemocraticSenatorFrankChurch)
intotheCIA'sillegalcovertactivitiesfromthe1950sto1970srevealedwaybackin1976;thiscanbe
regardedasaminimalistaccountoftheagency'ssins
:thelawmakers'finalreportrevealedCIA
assassinationplotstogetridofPatriceLumumbaoftheCongo,RafaelTrujillooftheDominican
Republic,PresidentDiemofVietnam,GeneralSchneiderofChile,whohadrefusedtomoveagainst
electedSocialistpresidentAllende,whohadtheimpertinencetochallengeUScorporatedominanceof
Chileanbusiness.EvenKissingerjokedthatgeostrategically,Chilewasonlya“daggerpointedatthe
heartofAntarctica”.InthecaseofLumumba,widelytoutedasaCommunistproSovietleaderofmineral
richCongo,SidneyGottlieb,theCIA'smasterchemist,hadbroughtanairlinecarry-onbagcontaining
vialsofdeadlypoisonandhandedittotheCIAstationchiefintheCongolesecapitalKinshasa.It
containedasyringetoinjectordripthepoisonintodrinkorLumumba'stubeoftoothpaste.Ininformation
declassifiedin1998,thelocalstationchief,LarryDevlin,sworeunderoaththatthePresident
Eisenhowerhadauthorisedtheassassinationtogoahead.Lumumbawasnotpoisoned.Devlingotcold
feetandthrewthepoisonvialsintoariver.Instead,writeshistorianoftheCIATimWeiner,alocal,CIA
fundedwarlordJosephMobutocapturedLumumbaandhadhimdeliveredtoagroupofBelgian
mercenarieswhoshotthefirebrand,leftwingCongoleseleader.
Belgianindustrialistshadtheir
ownreasonstogetridofthewidelyconsidereddangerouslyleftwingLumumba,buttheUSwasnot
unhappyaboutthisdevelopment.TheUS’sfavouredcandidate,Mobutolaterbecameoneof“Africa's
mostbrutaldictators”,stealingbillionsofdollarsinrevenuesfromthecountry'senormousdepositsof
rareminerals.HealsoactedastheCIA's“clearinghouse”ofcovertoperationsinAfricathroughthe
ColdWar.
ThentherewerethenotoriousCIAplotstokillCastro,whichobviouslyallfailed:InDecember1959
accordingtoNewYorkTimesreporterTimWeiner'sseminalhistoryoftheCIA,LegacyofAshes,CIA
chiefinstructedhissubordinatestoorganizeaspecialtaskforcetooverthrowCastro.RichardBissell,in
chargeofthespecialtaskforce,neverstoppedtoanalysewhatwouldhappenifthecoupagainstCastro
succeeded–orfailed.Thethinkingwas“God,wehaveapossibleCommunisthere.Wehadbetterget
himoutofthewayjustaswegotArbenzofGuatemalaout,”wroteoneCIAstaffer.
OnMarch2,1960,DullesbriefedVicepresidentNixononoperationsunderway.Undertheheadline
“WhatwearedoinginCuba”,Dullesspecified“actsofeconomicwarfare,sabotage,propaganda”anda
drugthat,ifplacedinCastro'sfood,wouldmakehim“behaveinsuchanirrationalmannerthatapublic
appearancemaywellhavedamagingresultsforhim.”Nixonwasapproving.
InAugust1961,whileaplotwashatchedtolandasmallarmyofarmedCubanexilesintheBayofPigs
tofomentacoupagainstthebeardedCubanleader,CIAofficialDickBissellputoutamafiacontract
againstCastro,gettingtheagency'ssecuritychiefSherriffEdwardstogetincontactwithahitman.As
eventheCIA'sofficialhistorianconcedes,“BissellprobablybelievedthatCastrowouldbedeadatthe
handsofaCIAsponsoredassassinbeforetheBrigadeeverhitthebeach.”Eisenhowerapproveda
further$10milliondollarstoremoveCastroprovidedthattheCIAcouldbesurethatCubawouldberid
of“thisincubus”.
WhenKennedytookover,heboughtthecontinuedmission,followingsomevery
partisanbriefingbyCIAchiefs.AHavanarestaurantworkerwasgivensomepoison,andwasinstructed
toslipitintoanicecreamconethatwouldbeeatenbyCastro.Therestaurantworkerchickenedout.
AlthoughKennedy'sreputationamongliberals–notleastamongthoseinnocentSwedes–isstill
somethingastheyoungmanofpromise,thepaladinofthefreeworld–amanbeyondreproach(Palme
incidentallywasfascinatedbyKennedyandinhisrathernaïvewayfanciedhimselfasaScandinavian
Kennedy)Kennedy'sWhiteHousetwiceformedassassinationsquadstoeliminateCastro,accordingto
another,separatecongressionalcommittee,in1975,thePikecommittee.
InFebruary1962,theCIAcreatedan“executiveaction”,i.e.anassassination,programme,codenamed
Rifle,andropedinanassassinbasedinLuxembourgtokillCastro.TheCIA'srecordsshow,according
toWeiner,thatasecondapproachinvolvedthemobsterJohnRosselliinNewYork,whowassupplied
withabatchofpoisonpills,tobedroppedintoCastro'scoffee.RichardHelms,chiefoftheCIA's
clandestineservice,oncepersonallytoldWeinerthattherewasnothingonpaperthatKennedywanted
Castrodead.“Butthereisnoquestioninmymindthathedid.”TheCIAwereactinginthespiritofthe
master'swishes.AccordingtotheChurchCongressionalCommittee,theCIAoftenusedthetacticof
“plausibledeniability”duringdecisionmakingwithrespecttoanassassination.
Theyshieldedhigherrankingofficials,andtheelectedpoliticians,fromresponsibilitybywithholdingfull
informationabouttheirplannedassassinations.TheCIAusedeuphemismsandslywordingto
communicatetheessenceoftheirplotting,withoutmakingitsoovertthatthepoliticianscouldbeheldto
account,eventhoughtheyknewverywellwhatwasgoingon.
Thepoliticianssometimesrespondedinkindwhentheywantedsomethingdone.Theyletitbeknown,but
theydidn'tspellitout.Therewereotherschemes,manyofthemextremelyharebrained:cigarspoisoned
withbotulintoxin,atuberclebacilliinfectedscubadivingsuitalongwithabooby-trappedconchshellon
theseabottom.Anexplodingcigar,aballpointpencontainingahypodermicsyringepreloadedwiththe
lethalconcoctionBlackleaf40.AccordingtoChannel4documentary638WaystokillCastrofrom2006,
theCIAhiredMaritaLorenz,hisgirlfriend,tosmuggleajarofcoldcreamwithpoisonpillsintohis
bedroom.Whenhediscoveredtheplot,Castroallegedlyhandedheragunandaskedhertoshoothim.
Hernervefailed.
CastroincidentallywasagoodfriendofOlofPalme,andwroteoneofthewarmestcondolencetelegrams
theSwedishleaderreceivedwhenhewasgunneddownin1986.Theywereborninthesameyear,
sharedforeignpolicyviews,andcamefromaristocraticfamiliesbuthadcrossedthelineovertotheleft:
PalmewasthefirstWesternleadertopayastatevisittoCubain1975.Wearingaredneckerchiefand
punchingtheairatthepodium,PalmegaveemotionalspeechesaboutsocialisminbrokenSpanish.You
couldalmostsayhegotcarriedaway.CastrowaskeentogetSwedentobehisgoodwillambassadorin
EuropeandhadputonaveryLatinwelcome-littlegirlssingingchoirsinredsocialistberets-which
couldnothavefailedtomovetheemotionalPalmeandhisretinueofSwedishpopsingers,artistsand
governmentofficials..ThepopsingerswenthomeandwroteromanticEurovisionsongswithamariachi
flavour.ABBAwrotetheirromanticodetorevolution“Fernando”.ButmanyinSwedenalwaysheldthe
friendshipwithCastroagainsthimafterwards.HisfriendshipwithCastrostrengthenedthehostility
towardsPalmeoftheSwedishDeepState.Itrepresented,forthem,Palme'sultimateuntrustworthiness.
ThereisafamousphotoofPalmeandCastro,sittingsidebyside,smokingcigarsandlaughing,blowing
smokeringsintotheairandplotting–intherightwingobserver'simagination–thedownfallofNATO’s
Europeanhegemony..
SowehaveseenhowtheChurchCommitteeoutlinedanumberofassassinationplotssupportedbythe
CIAuntilthemid-1970s.It'spublic.It'sadmitted.Itisnotdisputed.Somewritershavegonemuch
further,andwithupdatedallegations,ofthe“minimalisticpicture”ofCIAcovertoperations,andadmitted
bytheCIAitself,andwhichledtoapresidentialdecreebanningassassinationssignedbyPresidentFord.
FortyyearshavepassedsincetheChurchcommitteesothenumbersareboundtobeupdated.An
academicNGOcalledtheNationalSecurityArchivebasedatGeorgeWashingtonUniversitydoes
sterlingworkatgettingmoreandmorerecentamongtheCIA'ssecretsdeclassified.Workisslow,but
theykeepatit,andrecentlythepublishedinformationabouthowJFKworkedtoplotthedownfallof
Brazil'smoderateleftistleaderJoaoGoulartin1963withthehelpofBrazil'smilitary.Recently
declassifiedWhiteHouseconversationtranscriptsfromtheOvalOfficerevealthatKennedyaskedof
aidesinJuly1962:“Whatliaisondowehavewiththemilitary..wehavetodosomethingabout
Brazil.”
Kennedycreateda“coupclimate”becauseheresentedGoulart'sflirtationswithanti-Americanelements
inthedemocraticallyelectedSocialDemocratBraziliangovernment.Kennedywasnothostileto
BrazilianmilitaryactionifthealternativewastogiveBrazilawaytothe“Communists”.Oneof
Kennedy'saidessaid:“WemayverywellwanttheBrazilianmilitarytotakeoverattheendoftheyearif
theycan.”
OneofGoulart’s”crimes”wastobeinsufficientlysupportiveoftheUS'scampaignagainstCubaatthe
OrganizationofAmericanStates.KennedydispatchedhisbrotherRobert–anotherCamelotheroamong
liberals–tosaythattheUShadthe“gravestdoubts”aboutpositivefuturerelationswithBrazil,giventhe
“signsofCommunistorextremeleftwingnationalistinfiltrationintociviliangovernmentpositions”As
GoulartdefendedhispoliciesRFKpassedanotetotheAmericanambassadorsaying“Weseemtobe
gettingnoplace”.AstheCIAreportedonvariousdomesticplotstounseatGoulart,JFKwondered
openlywhethertheUSwouldneedtodeposeGoulart,accordingtotheWhiteHousetapesasreportedby
theNationalSecurityarchive.
TheUSembassyplannedcontingencyplanswithaheavyemphasisonarmedintervention.Kennedysaid:
“Iwouldnotcloseourmindstothepossibilityofsomekindofdiscreetintervention,”Gordontold
Kennedy,“Whichwouldhelptherightsidewin.”ItisnotclearfromtheNationalSecurityarchivepaper
whetherwhenthecouptookplacetheUSdidgiveactiveassistance.Thehistoricalproject'sdirector
admittedtherewerestillalotofblackholesinthestory,andhecalledontheObamaadministrationto
declassifythestillsecretintelligencefilesfromJohnsonandKennedyadministrations.SomeoftheCIA's
biggest–worst-secretsarestilllikelythereforetobeunderwraps;nothinghasemergedonSweden
either.
Thegapsinthereleasedarchivematerial,especiallypostChurchmeanswedon'tknowhowactivethe
CIAhasbeenfromthe“horse'smouth”.Writershavethereforeusedmorepiecemealmethodstotryand
getthewholepicture.WilliamBlum,inAmerica'sDeadliestExport:Democracy,andotherbooks,has
laboriouslydetaileddozensofevents,withoutaccesstoallarchivematerial,butreconstructedfrom
cuttingsandinterviews,fromthebrutal1965-66civilwarinIndonesia,involvingamassslaughterof
peasants,alleged“Communists”,tothedeparturesofJamaica'srelativelymoderateLabourleader
MichaelManley,andeventheresignationofAustralia'sUS-scepticLabourprimeministerGough
Whitlam,wheretheCIAmayhavelentahelpinghand.Someofthelinksmayseemmoretenuousthan
others.Ontheotherhand,researchintotheactivitiesofcovertactionisveryhard.
Itwasoftenimportanttomobiliselocaloppositionforces,usuallyinthetargetcountry'sopposition
politicians,oftenincombinationwiththelocalmilitary:inotherwords,thetargetcountry'sDeepState.
Thatmadeitmucheasier.Oftentheselocalforcesonlyneededanudge,ashowofsupport.Anodfrom
thegreatsuperpower.Sometimesmore:money,arms,agents.
UkrainewouldbethemostrecentAmericanintervention;militarycoupshavebeenreplacedbymanaged
streetprotests,socalled“ColourRevolutions”,andtheCIA'sregime-topplingmachineryhasbeenhived
offtothemoreinnocentsoundingNationalEndowmentforDemocracy,aswellastheStateDepartment,
buttheregimechangeshavecontinuedThemainstreammedia,whetherBBCorNewYorkTimes,have
tendedtoplayalongwithStatedepartmentnarrativesandittookmonthsbeforetheFebruary2014coup
wasadmittedbytheNewYorkTimestohaveitsbadsides:thatthenewUSsupportedregimewas
permeatedbyfarrightistswhowantedapurebloodUkraine,andthatIslamicmilitantshadjoinedthe
fightagainstbreakawayRussiansinUkraine'sfareasternprovinces..
.
BlumwritesthatsinceWorldWar2theUnitedStateshas“endeavouredtooverthrowmorethan50
foreigngovernments,mostofwhichweredemocraticallyelected.Grosslyinterferedindemocratic
electionsinatleast30countries.Attemptedtoassassinatemorethan50foreignleaders.Droppedbombs
onthepeopleofmorethan30countries.
“Intheprocessofregimechange,theUShasendedthelivesofseveralmillionpeople,condemnedmany
millionsmoretoalifeofagonyanddespairandhasbeenresponsibleforthetortureofcountless
thousands.
Hethengoesonthedetailalltheinterventions.StevenKinzer,authorofnumerousbooksonAmerican
foreignpolicy,writesthat“Throughoutthe20
th
centuryandintothebeginningofthe21
st,
,theUnited
Statesrepeatedlyuseditsmilitarypower,andthatofitsclandestineservices,tooverthrowgovernments
thatrefusedtoprotectitsinterests.”
Kinzerwritesthatallgreatpowerssuccumbtothetemptationtoshapetheworldaftertheirownends
usingtheirmilitary,theirmoneyandintelligenceagencies.America,builtontheidealofdemocracy,was
supposedtobedifferent.KinzerwritesthatnormalAmericanshaveagreatdealofidealism,butwhile
thereweregenuineattemptstobringdemocracytotoppedregimesatleastinrecentdecades–hecredits
theneoconsinIraqandAfghanistanwithnoblenation-buildingmotives-ithasoftenledtochaosinstead.
“Toooftenregimechangehassimplybeenasubstituteforathoughtfulforeignpolicy.Inmostcases
diplomaticandpoliticalapproacheswouldhaveworkedaseffectively,”writesKinzer.
TimWeiner,aNewYorkTimesjournalist,haswrittenoneofthego-tobooksabouttheCIA,ahistoryof
itsnefariousactivities–butnotallitsnefariousactivities-sinceWorldWar2.Hismainthesisisthatthe
CIAhasoftenbeencharacterisedbyincompetenceandthatithasn'tserveditspresidentswell.Hedoesn't
makesweepingstatementsaboutUSforeignpolicy,but,inameticulouslydocumentedbookofon-the-
recordinterviewswithformerCIAofficialsandarchivesourcedmaterial,goesthroughCIAoperations
sincetheWar.HepicksupwheretheChurchCommitteeleftoff,andisgoodontheReaganyears–the
periodcoveredbythisbook,theyearsofPalme'ssecondperiodinoffice–whenBillCaseycameto
power.
GeorgeShultz,whenhebecamesecretaryofstateinearly1983,wasastonishedtofindCaseyfreelancing
hisownoperations,inLatinAmerica.HehadthisideaofattackingtheformerDutchcolonyofSuriname
with200SouthKoreanmarines.Shultzkilledthehare-brainedscheme.ButShultzmaynothavehad
insightintoeverythingCasey,Weinbergerandothersdid.
Caseywasadrivenman,carelessofrules,contemptuousofcongress.HealsolackedrespectforCIA
analysts,whoseworkhethoughtwasboring,andoftenrewrotetheirconclusionstoreflecttheirown.
Weinerwrites:“WhenCaseytoldthepresident,‘ThisiswhattheCIAthinks,’whathereallymeantwas,
"ThisiswhatIthink."TherewasnoroomforindependentanalysisinhisCIA.Manyleft.Oneofthelast
oldtimerstoleave,ananalystcalled,DickLehman,thoughtCaseywas“rightwing”and“erratic”andit
tookahellofalotofarguingtoconvincehim."TheCIA'sintelligencewasinmanycasessimplyBill
Casey'sideology,"formerSecretaryofStateShultzsaidtoWeinerinaninterview.Buthehadtheearof
Reagan–bothelderlymenofthesamegeneration,andreligiouslyanti-Communist–andCasey
persuadedthepresidenttoembraceallofoutgoingpresidentCarter’ssevencovertactionprogrammes
andmassivelyrampupsomeofthem,launchingamassivecampaigntosupplyarmstocentralAmericato
counter“foreignsubversion”there.ThechieftargetwastheleftwingSandinistaregimeinNicaragua–
whoseleadershipwereclosefriendswiththeglobe-trottingOlofPalme;theSandinistaswereexactlythe
kindofprogressivesocialist-nationalistanti-imperialistgovernmenttheSwedishgovernmentexpressed
itssolidaritywith–andCongresswastoldthatthegovernmentofElSalvadorwasontheAmericans’
side,thattheyweregoodguys.TheElSalvadorregimewasveryrightwingandrandeathsquads.The
Americansalsotrainedrightwingguerrillas,theContras,toinfiltratetheSandinistaregimefrom
Honduras.ManyexpertssaidtheContraswouldneversucceed;Caseywasconvinced–andconvinced
hisboss,thepresident-thatifthecontrasfailed,theSandinistaswouldsomehowrollnorthwardsuntil
TexascameundermightyNicaragua’smilitarycontrol…Weinerwrites:“Tocounteractthem,Caseybuilt
aCentralAmericanTaskForcewithitsown‘warroom’wherecovert-actionofficerscookedthebooks,
inflatedthethreats,exaggeratedtheprospectsforsuccess,andpumpedupreportsfromthefield.(Casey’s
deputy)RobertGatessayshe‘raisedhellwithCasey’aboutthewarroomforyears,tonoavail.”
Casey’soperationsagainsttheSovietUnionandagainstSovietalliessuchastheSandinistasextended
beyondCentralAmerica.AtthesametimeastheReaganadministrationwastakingtheeconomicwarto
theSoviets,arm-wrestlinghisEuropeanalliessuchasHelmutSchmidt,tostopjointtechnologyprojects
andcurtailloans,CaseywasvisitingtheSaudistopersuadethemtopumpmoreoilinordertoreduce
Soviethardcurrencyearningsfromtheirprincipalexport.Inaddition,therewas,ashistorianPriscilla
Robertsremindsus:“Amassivemilitarybuild-upboostingthedefencebudgetfrom$171billionto$376
billionbetween1981and1986.”
ThecrownjewelofAmericancovertoperationsagainsttheSovietswasthe“beartrap”,theoperationto
drawtheSovietsintoAfghanistan.TheparallelwiththeSwedishoperationsisthatthestorywewere
toldatthetime–thatitwasanunprovokedinvasionbyanaggressiveSovietUnion-wasfarfromthe
truth:inbothSwedenandAfghanistan,theUnitedStateswastheactuator,butdeliberately,theSoviet
Uniongottheblame.TheAfghanoperationwasfarthemoreimportantoperation:itputpressureon
Sovietmilitaryresources,helpedruintheUSSR’sreputationintheworld,andcreatedamoodof
psychologicaldefeatismamongtheRussianpublic.Itwasfarmorehighprofile,violentandsuccessful
thantheScandinavianoperations.Ontheotherhand,Europeanoperationswerefarmorepolitically
sensitive,forobviousreasons.
Thepictureofa“beartrap”wasnotwhatanyoneamongthegeneralpublicintheWestthoughtatthetime.
ButJonathanSteele’sbookonAfghanistanand,acrosstheAtlantic,StevenColl’sPulitzerprizewinning
GhostWars,havechangedourpictureoftheSovietinterventionthatsparkedofftheSecondColdWarin
1979Steelehasgoodcredentials,havingbeenaGuardiancorrespondentinmanyplaces,including
WashingtonandMoscow.HespeaksfluentRussian.HeisaqualifieddebunkerofAmericancoldwar
propaganda.
TheSovietinvasionofAfghanistanwasnottheunprovokedaggressionwethoughtthen.Steeleteachesus
thatthisisasimple-mindedview,thatwewerewrong.RathertheSovietsfellintoacovertactiontrap
laidbytheCIA.Inthisrespect,itisallrathersimilartothemainthesisofthisbook:thatitwastheUS
andBritainthatcarriedoutcovertactionsinSwedishwaters,andmanagedtogettheUSSRblamedforit.
AfghanistanwasattheotherendoftheworldfromSweden,butitwasthesamekindofthing.
WithoutwishingtoexoneratetheSovietsforthebadthingstheydid,Steelecallsthestandardwestern
viewofSovietaggressioninAfghanistan“amyth”.ItwasnotaHitler-styleexpansionsouthintoAsia.
Hewrites:“Infact,theinvasion’sprimaryaimwastoprotecttheSovietUnion’ssouthernborderand
savearevolutionarygovernmentthatwasmeetingarmedresistance.IftheAfghangovernmentfell,Soviet
leadersfearedAfghanistanmightcomeunderAmericancontrol.Theymadethedecisiontoinvadewith
greatreluctance.”
For40yearsbetween1933and1983AfghanistanwasruledbykingZahirShahasabackwardmonarchy.
Shahplayedadelicatebalancinggame.AfghanistanhadbeenthebeneficiaryofbothAmericanandSoviet
aidduringtheColdWar:theAmericanssponsoredirrigationprojectsinthesouthernKandaharvalley;the
SovietsfocusedonKabulandthenorthdevelopingthegasfieldsofShibergian,afertilizerplantatBalkh
anddiggingaroadtunnelundertheHinduKushtolinkKabulwiththenorthernplains.TheSovietslargely
builtKabul’spolytechnicuniversityandstaffeditwithRussianexperts.AfghansweresenttoMoscowfor
traininginphysics,engineeringandagronomy.
In1973therewasacoup.TheAfghansocialiststhatcameinwerenotaCommunistpartythatwasatool
ofanexpansionistSovietUnion;rathertheywerethekindofsocialist,secular,modernisersthatwere
commoninthethirdworldinthe1960sand1970s.PalmecriticisedtheSovietinvasion,albeitabit
lukewarmly,but,truthbetold,theAfghansocialiststheSovietsreluctantlycametoprotectwasthekindof
movementPalmehadvigorouslysupportedinNicaragua,Tanzania,Zambia,India:secular,nationalist,
socialist,modernising,autocratic.TheAfghansocialistregimemodelleditselfonTito’sinYugoslavia,
andwasnon-aligned.Evenafterthesocialistcoupin1973thattoppedkingZahirShah,thesocialists
balancedbetweenUSandSovietinterests,non-alignedasTitowas,friendlytobotheastandwest.In
1978,thisdelicatebalancewithupsetwhenanotherleftistcouptookplacethattoppledDaoudanda
morepro-Soviet,butalsosecular,socialistparty,thePDPA,thePeople’sDemocraticPartyof
Afghanistan,tookitsplace.TheleaderswereNurTarakiandHafizullahAmin,ajournalistandteacher
respectively.Theywerenotenemiesoftheirpeople,arguesSteele.Reformsthathelpedthemost
backwardsectionsofsocietywerecarriedout.Steelewrites:“Theypromulgatedaseriesofreforms
aimedathelpingtheweakestmembersofsociety.Theyforbadechildmarriages,launchedadultliteracy
campaigns,withclassesforwomenaswellasmen.Althoughwomenweretaughtinseparaterooms,the
veryideaofeducatingwomenangeredvillagemullahsandtheulema,thereligiousscholars,aswellas
manyruralmaleswhoruledtheirfamilieslikepatriarchs.
“ThePDPAcancelledthedebtsofpeasantswhohadtakenmortgagesonsmallplotsoflands,usuallyat
exorbitantratesofinterest.”However,arguesSteele,thesesecularcitydwellers,thePDPA,manybutnot
alltrainedinMoscow,managedtoangermuchoftraditionalAfghanistan–angeredeventhedevoted,
uneducatedpeopletheyweretryingtohelp.Itwassaid,inruralcircles,thatthesecularistnewleaders
educatedinMoscowwereun-Islamic..TheMullahswarnedtheirfaithfultheywouldnotgotoheavenif
theyacceptedthesocialistreforms.Thedevoutpoorweretaughttobelievethelandreform–eventhough
theywereitsverybeneficiaries–wastheftand“thatGodwouldpunishthemforacceptingstolen
goods.”
TheSocialistreformsweremetwithruralviolencefromreligiousAfghans;moremoderatemembersof
thegovernment,whofeltthatSocialismwasgoingtoofar,toofast,inaconservativecountry,were
expelled.AminandTaraki,inagoodcause,perhaps,turnedouttobenastypoliticalplayers,anddeafto
thenatureofthecountry.AfghanistanchangeditsflagfromIslamicGreentoprovocativeCommunistRed.
SincemanycabinetmembershadinfactbeentrainedinMoscow,thegovernmentappealed,writesSteele,
“13timesforfullscaleSovietmilitarysupportthrough1978and1979evenasSovietdiplomats(aswe
nowknowfromSovietarchivesandmemoirsofformerSovietofficials)senttheKremlinalarmistreports
onthedevelopingcounterrevolutionarycrisis.”
TheSoviets,aswecansee,weren’texactly
hurryingtointervene.
Steelewrites:“TheSovietleaderswereuncertainhowtoreact.TheiradvicetoKabultoabandonor
delaythereformshadgoneunheeded.However,TarakiandAminpreferredtodealwithdissentthrough
repressionandimprisonment.”Theirvictimsincludedhundredsofpeopleinspiteofappealsfromthe
Kremlin.TheSovietshadcalledforreforms,writesSteele.
TarakiwasregardedasthemoremoderateoftherevolutionaryduoandwhenhewascalledtoMoscow
inMarch1979hewastoldbyAlexeiKosygin,theSovietprimeminister,thatMoscowwouldassistwith
armsandmaterielbutnottroopsasthiswouldplayintothehandsoftheenemy.Buthehadtobe
moderate.“OurmutualenemiesarejustwaitingforthemomentwhenSovietforcesappearonAfghan
territory.ThiswouldgivethemanexcusetodeployhostilemilitaryformationsonAfghanterritory,”
Kosyginsaid,withreferencetotheAmericans.
TarakireturnedtoKabul.TherewasanassassinationattemptagainstAmininTaraki’spresence.Afew
dayslater,Tarakiwasfoundsuffocatedbyapillow–probablytheegregiousAmin’sdoing.Thisenraged
Brezhnev,whofeltpersonallybetrayed.AminhadstudiedintheUnitedStates;theRussianssuspectedhe
maybeaCIAagentasAmin’sprofessedMarxismwassoextremeitreboundedontheSovietUnion,
accordingtoAfghanpoliticalsourcesthathadbeenactiveatthetime.Hehadtogo.TheSovietssentin
theFortiethSovietArmyandspecialforceskilledAmin,hoping,says,Steele,toreplacehimwith
politiciansfromthemoremoderatewingoftheparty.
ContrarytoWesternpropaganda,writesSteele,therehadbeenfightingbetweenMujahedeenandthe
KabulgovernmentforyearsbeforetheSovietinvasion.ItwasnotthecasetheMujahedeenweresetupin
responsetotheSovietinvasion.TheSovietsdidnotprovokearesistancemovement;thecivilwar
betweenurbansecularistsandradicalruralIslamistshadbeengoingstrongbeforetheSovietsinvaded.
Theydidnotsparkthewarandarmedresistance.Itwasalsopropagandathatthewesternassistancewas
acountermovetotheaggressiveSovietlandgrab.Infact,theWestsupportedthemujahedeenformonths
beforetheSoviettakeoverbecause,asSteeleputsit,“theysawitwouldcreateproblemsforakeySoviet
ally–theaggressiveandincompetentTaraki/Amingovernment-andperhapstraptheSovietsintoamajor
blunder.”
InMarch1979–ninemonthsbeforethereluctantSovietintervention-seniorCIA
officialRobertGates,inhismemoirs,recallsthatameetingtookplacewhereCIAofficialswhetherthey
shouldkeepthemujahedeengoingto“sucktheSovietsintoaVietnamesequagmire”.
ZbigniewBrzezinski,Carter’suber-hawkish,Polishbornnationalsecurityadviser,hadpersuadedCarter
tosignadocument,apresidentialfinding,authorisingtheCIA’ssupportfortheIslamistmujahedeen
monthsbeforetheSovietinvasion.BrzezinskiapparentlysentCarteramemothatthiswouldbetheSoviet
Vietnam.
ThefindingallowedtheCIAtoshipweaponssecretlytotheMujahedin.Theoperativephrasewas
“harassment”.
ThefirstgunsshippedwereLeeEnfieldboltaction.303rifles,whichwasthe
BritishstandardinfantryweaponinWorldWar2,andwhichhadbeencovetedbyAfghanmenforalong
time.Itwasold-fashionedbutaloteasiertoaimthanthenosierandmoremodernSoviet-madeAK47
assaultrifle.TheCIAboughttheriflefromstoresheldbydevelopingcountries’armiesalloverthe
world,andmovedthemuptheKhyberpassintoAfghanistan.TheyalsoboughtthousandsofRPG7
rocketlaunchersfromsuppliesinEgyptandChina.Theywerecheap,easytocarryandcouldstopa
Soviettank.
After18monthsofarmingtheruralIslamistsagainsttheSovietoccupationforces,localCIAchiefsbased
inneighbouringPakistan–thebaseforthecampaignagainsttheSoviets–realisedthatthewaragainstthe
Sovietswasgoingbetterthananyonecouldhavehopedandproposedthatfundingbeexpanded.Theonly
worrywasthattheSovietswouldbeprovokedintoinvadingPakistan.Inreturnforprovidingabasefor
USoperations,theleaderofPakistan,GeneralZiaElHaq,fearingthathisdividedcountrywouldbe
squeezedbetweenaSovietoccupiedAfghanistanandahostileIndia,insistedon,andobtained,billionsof
dollarsinUSfinancialsubsidiesandpreferentialaccesstoNATO’slatestequipment,suchastheF-16
fighter,fromReagan,whohadreauthorisedandstrengthenedCarter’soperations.
ThealliancewithZia,whichperpetuatedPakistan’smilitarydictatorship,illustratestheAmerican
penchantforworkingwithothercountries’militaryelitesinordertoprosecutetheColdWar.Theywere
morereliablyanti-Communist;buttheeffectsonthesecountries’politicalsystems–Pakistanwasassaid
amilitarydictatorship–wasnegative.AsforSweden,theUStookcaretodeveloprelationswiththe
extremelyanti-SovietSwedishmilitary.
Aswehaveseen,becauseoftheintermediaryroleplayedbyISI,theCIA’sdirectcontactswithAfghans
werekeptataminimum.CongressauthorisedtheCIA’sAfghancampaignsandeachyearpermittedthe
sumstoexpand,fromabout$30millionin1981toabout$200mdollarsin1984.TheCIAliaisedwith
PakistaniintelligenceabouttheirAfghanclients’needsandcabledtheirrequeststoWashington.Endof
fiscalyeardealsstruckinWashingtonbetweenCongressmenoftenledtounexpectedlylargeincome
flowsfortherebels.TheCIAboughtmorearmsthantheyknewwhattodowith,taxingthePakistani
authorities’transportcapabilities.
Theweaponsshippedacrossbecamemoreandmorepowerful,nolongerLeeEnfieldsbutAK47s,
mortarsandheavymachineguns.ThePakistanistookagenerouscutoftheprofits,andUSclientstates
sellingoffoldSovietstores,suchasEgypt–SovietweaponstokillSovietsoldiers–benefitedgreatly,
buttheCIAfoundit,despiteeverything,quitecosteffective.TheAfghanWarboggeddowntheSoviet
armyandwasaconstantembarrassmenttotheSovietUnion’sreputationinternationally,aswellas
demoralisingtheSovietUnionathome.TrulyitwastheUSSR’sVietnam.
InJanuary1984,writesSteveColl,anotherAfghanexpert,fouryearssincethefirstLeeEnfieldshad
arrivedinAfghanistan,Mujahedeenwarriorshadkilledorwoundedabout17,000Sovietsoldiers.The
mujahedeencontrolledover60%ofthecountryside.TheAfghanshaddestroyed8,000trucksorjeeps,
400aircraft,2,750tanksandarmouredpersonnelcarriers.ThewarhadalreadycosttheSovietstwelve
billiondollarsindirectexpenses,estimatedCasey,whorampeduptheconflictevenfurtherin1984:
Kittedoutwithboats,lightarmsandmapsoftheSovietUnion,CIA-sponsoredAfghanrebelscarrying
CIAprintedKoransinthelanguagesoftheMuslimnationalitiesoftheSovietUnioncrossedtheAmu
Daryariverto“mountsabotageandpropagandaoperations”insidetheUSSR’svulnerableMuslinSouth.
Itwasahighlydangerousactivity,since“theincursionsmarkedthefirstoutside-sponsoredviolent
guerrillaactivityonSovietsoilsincetheearly1950s.”
Astheytookplaceatthesametimeasthe
Northernflankcovertoperationshalfaworldaway,theymustreallyhaveaddedtothesenseinMoscow
thattheircountrywasundersiege.
Therewasadifferencethatmadetheseactionsmuchmorerisky.ThelasttimetheCIAtriedtofoment
revoltintheUSSR,inthe1950s,theUSSRlackedapowerfulnucleardeterrent.AccordingtoColl,
CaseyenragedseniorCIAofficialswithhislackofcaution,evenashisgutsinspiredothers.Bobby
Inman,whoopposedCasey’snorthernoperations,accordingtoFrithiofsonandTunander,wasjustas
unhappyabouttheAfghanoperations:Inmanthoughtcovertoperationswerea“quickfix”andresignedin
1982.Casey’sotherdeputy,JoshMcMahon,worriedthattheAfghancovertoperationcouldgo
desperatelywrongandwonderedwhethertheAmericansshouldnotbeputtingmorediplomaticpressure
ontheSovietsinstead.ThecovertoperationsraisedthetemperatureoftheColdWartoboilingpoint,not
thatCaseycared.
Casey,thisgrandsonofanIrishsaloonkeeper,whoseferventCatholicismmadehimthedeadlyfoeof
Communism,whohad,inhissecondcareeraftersellinginformationabouttaxsheltersonWallStreet,
becomethesecondmostinfluentialmemberoftheReaganadministrationafterthePresident.Like
MargaretThatcher’sadvisersinEngland,RobertConquestandBrianCrozier,Caseywasconvincedthat
theRussianswerewagingaslowcampaignthatsoughtworldwidedominationandwerepreparedtoletit
takeagenerationormore.Theywerepickingoffthirdworldregimes,onebyone.Andseekingoutagents
ofinfluenceintheWest,too.
WeinerdoesnotwriteaboutEurope,evenlessnorthernEurope;thebiggestsecretswillbethelasttobe
declassified.ThereisreasontobelieveCaseywasactiveontheNorthernFlank.Tunandertoldmehehad
beentoldbyReagan’snavalsecretary,JohnLehman,thathe,Lehman,headedatopsecretorganisation
calledtheNationalUnderwaterReconnaissanceoffice,NUROthatwassubordinatetoanothertopsecret
formationcalledCasey’sDeceptionCommittee.TunanderandLehmanmetatacoldwarseminarheldin
Tromso,atowninnorthernNorwayin2007.WehavetohavetakeTunander’swordforLehmantoldhim.
Shortlyaftertheirmeeting,IhadaninterviewwithLehmanaboutthe“Westernsubmarineintrusions”.
AftermySundayTimesarticlewaspublished,IcalledhiminhisofficeinWashington,wherehewas
workingasalawyerandbusinessconsultant,wealthyandpowerfulbehindthescenes.(Hefunctioned,for
instance,asforeignaffairsadvisertoRepublicanPresidentialcandidatesduringtheelectioncampaignof
2012.)Hewouldn’tconfirmwhathehadsaidtoTunander;butheknewhim.Ontheotherhand,Lehman
didnotdenythathehadtoldTunanderthateither,andheadded,withemphasis,tomakesureIgotthe
message,thathefoundTunanderan“extremelyaccurateandconscientioushistorian”.
CaseywasamanwhowascapableoflaunchingacovertwarinAfghanistanthatkilledtensofthousands
ofSovietsandledtothedeathsofthousandsofmoreAfghans,fightersaswellascivilians.Comparedto
that,whatwasalittledestabilisationinEuropeagainstaprimeministerwhowanteddialoguewiththe
SovietUnion?Lehman’sallegedcommenttoTunanderaboutCasey’sdeceptioncommittee–andhis
confirmationtomethatTunanderwasan“accuratehistorian”-suggestthesubmarineintrusions,aimedat
takingouttheSovietbastions,wasalsopsychologicalcampaigninScandinaviaaimedagainstPalmeas
muchasagainsttheSovietUnion.Yougetthesamesensefromaninterestingpieceoftrickery,apparently
devisedbyMI6,withwhomtheCIAworkedhandinglove.
InNovember1983,PeterWallénberg,aSwedishindustrialistwithextensivelinkstotheUK,handedover
aBritishintelligencereporttotheSwedishsupremecommanderGeneralLjungwithclaimsthat
“PoliticalSweden”onpurposehadreleasedthesubmarinesandsabotagedtheSwedishNavy’seffort.
TheMI6documentclaimedtherewasathreatofapossible“futureSwedish-Sovietpact”,involving
Palme.Thedocumentobviously“triedtodiscreditSwedishsecuritypolicy”,Ljungwrotedisapprovingly
inhisdiary.
Ljung,unliketheproNATOcabalintheSwedishmilitary,wasaSwedishgovernment
loyalist,andwasloyaltohisprimeminister,OlofPalme.
1 2 . Th eOlo fPalmemu rd er
Tosummarisesofar:thesecondcoldwarbeganin1979withtheSovietinvasionofAfghanistanandthe
electionofMargaretThatcher,whowantedtodefeattheSovietUnion.TheSovietsdeniedthat
AfghanistanwasthebeginningoftheirexpansionintoAsia;butThatcher,whosemaverickadvisershad
toldhertheUSSRmightconductasurpriseattackonWestGermany,wasnotinclinedtogiveSoviet
leadersthebenefitofthedoubt.RonaldReaganwaselectedayearandahalflaterandhewaseven
keenertoconsignMarxismtotheashheapofhistory,asheputitinhisspeechtotheBritishHousesof
ParliamentinJune1982.ReaganpressurizedhisEuropeanalliestocuteconomicanddiplomaticcontacts
withtheUSSR.HelmutSchmidt,themostpowerfulEuropeanleader,foughttoothandclawagainst
AmericanconstraintsonhisessentiallypeacefulOstpolitik,buthewasoutofpowerbyOctober1982
whenhiscoalitionpartnersjumpedshipandformedagovernmentwiththerightwingparties,faithful
Atlanticcommunityallies.NorwaytriedtopursueanorthernequivalentofOstpolitik,whatsenior
governmentofficialJohanHolstcalledNordpolitik,basedonpeacefulnegotiationofmutualinterests
withtheSovietUnioninthelargelydemilitarizednorthernflank,overfishingrights,technologyandtrade.
ButnewlyopeneddiplomaticpapersshowjusthowmuchpressuretheBritishwereapplyingagainsta
NorwegianLabourgovernmentthattriedtogoitsownwayinEast-Westaffairs:itwasunderminingthe
integrityofNATO,andweakenedtheunitedfrontagainsttheSovietUnion.AtthesametimeBritish
diplomatsinsistedtheywerenotinterveninginNorway’sdomesticaffairs.TheNorwegianproblem
disappearedwiththeelectiondefeatoftheNorwegianLabourpartyinSeptember1981,andtheaccession
topowerofthereliablypro-NATOconservativeKaareWilloch.AyearlaterthoughtheneutralistPalme
cametopowerinSweden,promisingacontinuationofNorway’sNordpolitikandWestGermany’s
Ostpolitik.IneveryspeechhecontinuedtomaintainSweden’sabsoluteneutralityatatimetheUSnavy
respondedtotheSovietUnion’sessentiallydefensivenavalstrategybylaunchingaNorthernFlank
confrontationstrategyofitsown.
OlofPalmewasmurderedin1986anditstilloneofthebigmysteriesofourtime.Noonehasbeen
convictedofitconclusively.UnravellingthemysterycouldprovideakeytotheColdWar:wasPalmea
victimofAnglo-AmericanassertionofcontroloverWesternEuropeitfearedwasslippingawaythe
early1980s?
OlofPalmewaskilledat11.21pmon28February1986,shotinthebackbyanassassinwhilewalking
homefromthecinemawithhiswife.Theassassindisappearedbyrunningdownasidestreetandintothe
night,andtherethetrailstops.Noonesawthekiller’sfaceandtheweaponhasnotbeentraced.Asthe
“perfectassassination”ithasbewitchedawholegenerationofSwedes.
NofigurewassopolarisingasPalmewas.Palmewasanextremelystrong,charismatic,independent
mindedfigureinEuropeanpolitics,withadistinct“democraticsocialist”viewoftheworld–extremely
idealistic.
Upstairshatedhim,downstairslovedhim.TheSwedishprimeministerwasloved,wasalmostasaint,for
theworkers'movement.VirtuallyeveryoneinSwedenwasunionised:itwasastatic,butverysecure,
existence.PalmeoftenclaimedthatSwedenwasthemostcivilised,mosthumane,countryintheworld,
andlikedtospreadthismessage...InaworldwherethelikesofRichardPerleweremakingtherunning,
hefoundanicheduringdetenteasaEuropeanwhowasnottaintedbywar,colonialismorcynical
realpolitik.SwedenhadcleanhandseverywhereexceptinEurope,wherethecountry'sfailuretooppose
NazismstillrankledwithanoldergenerationofBrits.InterviewedbySwedishTV’scelebrity
interviewerin1995,MargaretThatcher,intheonlycommenteveronSwedenthatIhavebeenableto
find,castigatedSwedenforbeingneutralduringWorldWar2incontrasttobraveNorway.Theyoung
Swedishinterviewersaid:“YouBritishthinkyouarebetterthanothers.”T:“Wehaveneverbeen
defeated.”“Westoodupforwhatwebelievedin.”Interviewer,ingratiatingly:“IhatedeverythingHitler
stoodfor.”T:“Why,didyourcountryfighthim?Interview,“Oh,Iwasn’tbornthen.”Itgetsstillmore
excruciatingafterthat.PalmegrewupduringtheWarandSweden’spro-Naziattitudeswereasourceof
shameandembarrassmentinadulthood.HowtocleanSweden’sreputation?
AfricaandAsiaofferedanoutletforwhatsomehavecalledPalme's“moralimperialism”and,forthe
Swedishworkingclass,atatimewhenrealworkingclassjobsexisted,thedramaofSwedenextending
itsinfluenceabroadcompensatedforthelackofdramaindomesticpolitics,wheretheSocialDemocrats
tendedtobeincharge.(Theperiod1976–82wasanexception.).Itissaidhewasaninternationalist.
Butthatistomisreadhisappeal.Thoughapacifisthewasalso,inhisownway,anationalist–anAfrican
nationalist,aSouthAmericannationalist,anAsiannationalist.....Asmallstatenationalist.Anda
Swedishnationalist.Hewasverymuchinfavouroftherightsof“littlestates”againstsuperpowers:He
seemedtoseeanexactparallelbetweenthisandtherightsofthe“littlepeople”againstpowerful
industrialists,professionals,bigbusinesses.
AstreamofAfricanleaderfromdecolonisedcountriescametopayhomagetotheSwedishModel;Palme
sentthemawaywithadviceonhow,havingescapedwickedAnglo-Saxoncolonialism,theycould
becomegoodSwedishSocialDemocrats.SallyMugabewashedthedishesinPalme'smodestsuburban
home,atwhichforeigndignitariesalwaysmarvelled.Helivedlikemillionsoflowermiddleclass
Swedes.Themodernistfurniture,decorations,crockery,nodifferentfromtheaverageSwede.Hewas
completelywithoutairs.WasPalmeamanofthefuture,atrulygoodman?
Palme'sinterestinpeacebetweenthesuperpowerswasonlyonefacetofhisglobalengagement.Inthe
seventies,hehadtravelledabroadextensivelyasdeputychairmanoftherevivedSocialistInternational
andpreachedthetwinthemesofnationalismandsocialismtoleftistinclinedleadersofthethirdworld.
Healsolovedtouringhisowncountry;hisfascinationfor,indeedidealisationof,thelivesofnormal
peopleknewnobounds.Thecommonpeoplelovedhimback.On5February1970hemetbuilding
workers,ofalltheworkers,perhapstheones,forastrangereason,heidealisedthemost.Theywere
renovatingtheparliamentbuilding.
TheaccountsappearinabookpublishedbytheSocialDemocraticparty'spublishingcompany.
Atypicaltestimony:Hewasscheduledtotalkforhalfanhouraboutexcessprofitsinbusiness,andthe
buildingofhydropowerinaLaplandbeautyspot.Inevitablyhetalkedforlongerthantheallottedtime.
Thenheapproachesaclusterofhardhats.KarlErikHåkanssonisinterviewed.KarlErikhadnever
forgottenthatbriefmomentwhenPalmespoke.Heknewhewouldtreasureithisentirelife.“Iaskedhim
whatIthoughtofhisjob,”saidHåkanssontothememorialtomeaboutPalme'slife,whichcarriesa
reverenttonethroughout.“'Marvellous,'Palmesaid.Andthenhesaidsomethingbeautiful,hesaid'Itisso
greattocomeoutandtalkamongtheworkers.'”Hereisanothertypicalexampleofaworkerwholoves
Palme.MonaEdvardsson,44,workedatahospitalasapediatricnurseandshowedPalmearoundthe
children'swardonavisitin1980.“Heputonayellowcoatandwentintowatch.Therewerelotsof
peopleandphotographers.Buthecaredonlyforthechildren.Theywerebetweenoneandsevendaysold.
Helookedveryniceandhewasverynice,too.”
Theworkershadagoodreasontoputhimonapedestal.IrememberfrommychildhoodPalme'sSweden
asacountrywherethedifferencesbetweenworkersanddirectorsseemedverysmallinindeed.
Everybodydressedinsamewesternclothes,usedtheinformalyouandenjoyedhighhousingstandards.
InfewcountriesandinfewerasandfewcountriescomparedtoSwedenhasequalitybetweentheclasses
betweenasgreatasduringthePalmeera.Constructionworkers,countrypostmen,mineworkers,
seamstresses,socialworkers,pensioners:ithadneverbeensogood.Theunionsprotectedtheirwages
andthemostextensivewelfarestateintheworldlookedafterthemwhentheywereold.Everythingwas
clean,everyonewashonest,andeverythingworked.Therewerenoslums,andnohomeless.Unlikethe
USSR,peoplewerefreetotravelandspeaktheirminds.Intheory,inpractice,Palme'sstrongpersonality
putitsstamponwhatwasstill,andisstill,quiteaconsensussocietywithastrongstateadministration
andinformalthoughtcontrol.Swedencouldbeasuffocatingplacetobe–thenandtoday.Hisstrong
ideologypermeatedthepublicdebateandhewasfarmoreleftwingthanSocialDemocratstoday.Plenty
ofbiographiesinSwedishhavebeenwrittenaboutPalme.Butnonehasseriouslylookedintohispeace-
makingeffortsinthe1980s:perhapsbecauseitwouldopenacanofwormsaboutSwedishhistoryata
timewhenthecountry,inthe2010s,isbusyabandoningitslongstandingpolicyofneutralityandheading
intoNATO.
1 3 . Palme,th ed o v eo fp eace
InApril1982,Palme’scommissionondisarmamentmetinStockholm.Holedupintheposhresortof
Saltsjöbaden,onthecoastoutsideStockholm,theywereupagainsttheclock:inonlytwomonthstheyhad
tohavetheirreportready,fortheUNdisarmamentconference.Theyworkedtheirwaythroughthe200
pagereport,adjustingasentencethere,strikingoutanotherphrasethere,passingittotheircolleaguesfor
approval.TherewerethreepointsofdifferencebetweenGeorgiArbatov,theSovietdelegate,andsome
ofothers,buttheywereresolvedatthelastmomentthroughgo-betweeneffortsbyDavidOwen,working
hardtobridgephrasingdifferences.AsthecommissionmembersleftStockholm,theyletitonthatits
contentswouldberevealedaweekbeforetheUNdisarmamentconferenceinJune.Withstatesmenfrom
allblocspresenttomakesureallviewswererepresented,youwouldthinkthereportwouldbe
scrupulouslyfair.
Thetimingturnedouttobeunfortunate.ThePalmecommission’sreportwasreadyinJune1982,andthe
BritishwereflushwithvictoryintheFalklands.TherewasanatmosphereoftriumphalisminWashington
andLondon.Righthaddefeatedwrong,Britainhadpickeditselfupanddefeatedanationof“dagoes”,
throughadisplayofhighmilitaryskill.Palme’scallformultilateralism,compromiseanddialoguewith
theenemycouldnothavecomeataworsetime.ThesamemonthasPalme’spresentationtotheUNon
thereportoncommonsecurityattheUN,RonaldReagangaveafightingspeechbeforetheBritishHouses
ofParliamentthatreferencedBritain’sFalklandsvictoryanddeliberatelyhearkenedbacktothefinest
daysoftheWorldWarIIAnglo-Americanallianceagainstanotherformofevil,Nazism.Perhapsthe
mostcitedsectionwasthissentence.“WhatIamdescribingnowisaplanandahopeforthelongterm--
themarchoffreedomanddemocracywhichwillleaveMarxism-Leninismontheash-heapofhistoryasit
hasleftothertyrannieswhichstiflethefreedomandmuzzletheself-expressionofthepeople..”Itwas
fightingtalk,andtheHouseofCommonsgaveReaganastandingovation.
Meanwhile,inNewYork,inthesamemonth,PalmespokeatthesecondspecialUNsessionon
disarmament,presentinghisreport.
“Wespentmuchtimestudyingtheeffectsofnuclearwar.WemetwithexpertsintheEastandtheWest,we
discussedwithdoctors,wetravelledtoHiroshimatohearabouttheeffectsoftheonlytwonuclearattacks
thathavetakenplaceinreality,andweheardtestimonyfromsurvivorsofthoseattacks.Ourconclusion
wasunambiguous:anuclearwarcannotbewon.Victoryisnotpossible;itwouldbesuchacatastrophe
thatthenotionofvictorywouldbemeaningless.”
Hecontinued:“Further,wedonotbelieveanuclearwarcanbecontrolledorlimited.Someclaimthat
conflictsinvolvingtheuseofnuclearweaponsandextendingoverdaysorevenmonthscouldremain
limited.Weconcludeinourreportthat‘toenvisagesuchapossibilityseriouslyonemustmakeincredible
assumptionsabouttherationalityofdecisionmakersunderpressure,abouttheresilienceofpeopleand
machineryincommandandcontrolsystems,aboutsocialcoherenceinthefaceofunprecedented
devastationandsuffering,aboutthecontinuanceofeffectivegovernmentaloperationsaboutthestrengthof
militarydiscipline.’Theideaoflimitednuclearwarissimplyanillusionandtocontemplateitasa
seriouspossibilityisequallydangerousandirresponsible.”
HethenwentontoexplainhowhehadvisitedHiroshimaandhowhadmetsurvivorsofthetwonuclear
blasts,oneofwhomwasanelderlydoctorattheSanFranciscanhospitalinNagasaki;whosaidthatthe
moralstandardsofhumanbeingshadnotcaughtupwiththedevelopmentsofscienceandtechnology.
ThemeatofPalme’sargumentwasthatinanuclearagenonationcouldachieveabsolutesecuritythrough
militarysuperiority.Nuclearweaponryhadtransformedtheveryconceptofwar:
"Onethingthatwemustallunderstand,andthatwemustteachthosewhohavenotyetunderstood,isthat
nuclearweaponshavetransformedtheveryconceptofwar.Inthenuclearagenonationcandefenditself
effectivelyagainstnuclearattack.Andthusitspeoplewillultimatelyremaininsecure.Thisisthecentral
factthatallnationsmustrealise.
“Securitycanthusnotbeachievedthroughunilateralmeasures.ThereisnosuchthingasamodernPax
Romana.Securitymustinsteadbeachievedthroughcooperativeefforts.Evenpoliticalandideological
opponentsmustworktogethertoavoidnuclearwar.Theycansurviveonlytogether.Securitymustinstead
beachievedthroughcooperativeefforts.Evenpoliticalandideologicalopponentsmustworktogetherto
avoidnuclearwar.Theycansurviveonlytogether.Theywouldbeunitedintheirdestruction.Anuclear
warwouldnotendinvictoryforone,butinmutualdestruction.Securityinthenuclearagemeanscommon
security."
PalmewasofcourserightandactuallybyparsingReagan’sspeechyoucanseerecognitionthere,too,of
thedangersofnuclearwar.Reagan’sdreamwasactuallytoabolishnuclearweapons.Thatisnota
picturemanymembersofthegeneralpublicassociatewithhim.Butthere,intheWestminsterspeech,he
says:“AndIdon'thavetotellyouthatintoday'sworldtheexistenceofnuclearweaponscouldmean,if
nottheextinctionofmankind,thensurelytheendofcivilizationasweknowit.”Wasthereadifferenceof
substanceorstyle?Reaganalsohadthemilitaryindustrialcomplextocontendwith,whateverhethought
personally.AndthereweretheabsolutelyuncompromisingpresenceoftheneoconsoftheReagan
administration.Therewasalsoaself-justificationforthewest,andanattackontheEast,entirelyabsent
fromPalme’swork,whichwastheproductofstatesmenfrombothsidesworkingtogether.
Palme’sspeechandhiscommission’sreportwascompletelyignoredbytheWesternpowersandwestern
mediaastensionscontinuedtorisebetweenEastandWestfollowingReagan’sbelligerentrhetoric,the
neutralisationofgovernmentsinEuropethatpreachedOstpolitik,andCasey’svariouscovertoperations.
Palme,withhisconnectionstotheKremlinviaArbatov,musthaveobservedanxiouslydevelopmentsin
theSovietUnionwhosehawkshadstartedtoactonReagan’srhetoricandAmerica’scovertactions.The
SovietUnionhaditsownhawks:oneexamplewastheMarshaloftheSovietUnionNikolaiOrgakov,a
formerdeputyDefenceMinisterandChiefoftheGeneralStaff.HewasthefirstSovietseniorofficialto
compareRonaldReagantoHitlerandtheUnitedStatestoNaziGermany.HeclaimedthattheUnited
Stateshadeffectivelydeclared“war”ontheSovietUnion.
Healsourgedthemtobegina‘timelyshiftofthearmedforcesandtheentirenationaleconomyontoawar
footing,’assertingthatundercurrentconditionstheneedtocomplete‘mobilizationdeploymentinashort
timeisconsiderablymoreacute.
AstheUnitedStatesbegantoflyUSbombersatSovietairspace,turningbackatthelastminute,moreand
moreSovietseniorofficialsandofficersbegantalkingofthedangersofnuclearwar.Warpropagandain
theSovietUniongrewtofrenziedheights;thewholecountryrampedupintoastateofanxietybypeace
rallies,civildefencedrills,andbriefingsforpartyofficialsonthedangerofwar.Photosfromtheperiod
showedSovietspractisinggasmaskandairraiddrills.
ThemediaintheWarsawPactsatellitestatesrantheWesternsystemdown.Hereisaselectionof
headlinesintheEastBerlinnewspapers:“HundredsofthousandsofAmericanworkersareshifted
aroundlikeslaves”.“Reachingintothepocketsofthecommonpeople”.“Morethanhalfofallstudentsin
MarylandfailtheirEnglishexams.”“Pershing2rocketswerenevermeantasameansofcatch-
up.”
“Reaganisfinallyastrawpuppetthatonlydoeswhatisdemandedbythearms
industry,andnowheneedstosellrocketsandneedsanalibitodoit.”
ASovietinterpreterreturningtoMoscowin1982describedtheatmosphereinMoscowas“pre-war”.
OneofthecomplicatingfactorswasthattheageingformerKGBchiefYuriAndropov,whohadtakenover
fromthesenileBrezhnevonthelatter’sdeathinNovember1982,washimselfdyingofkidneydisease.In
his16monthsinofficefromlate1982toearly1984,whichmarkedthecoldestperiodoftheentirecold
war,theleaderofthesecondsuperpowerspentmuchofhisdyingexistenceinahospitalroomin
Moscow’ssuburbs.Severalpolitburomeetingswereheldaroundhisbedside.Whilehismindwas
allegedlyclear,itisworryingtocontemplatethattheworld’sfuturelayinthehandsofasickand
depressedman,whoseprofessionhadbeenparanoia,whohadtheprospectofdeathweighingheavily
uponhim.
Withallthisanxietyabout,allthatwasneededwasatrigger.Palmeknewwelltheeffectsofnuclearwar;
JonathanSchell’sFateoftheEarthwasabookhereadonhislongfightsaroundtheworldforthe
monthlymeetingsofhiscommission.
On26September1983LtColonelStanislavPetrovwasworkingthenightshiftatthenuclearcommand
bunkeratSerpukhov-15,southofMoscow.Heandotherswiththenucleararmedforcessathere,night
afternight,gazingintoconsoles,theirfaceslitredbythelightedbuttons.Themessagewassomethingthey
hadrehearsedmoretimesthantheycouldcount,andalltheuniformedpersonnelpresentknewexactly
whatwasup.Americanmissileswereinbound,atthreetimesthespeedofsound,meaningMoscow
wouldbedestroyedwithin15minutes.Whiletheotherscalledforaresponse,itwasPetrovwhotookit
uponhisownresponsibilitytojudgeitwasjustamalfunctionandputthephonetothepolitburobackin
theircradles.
Ofcourse,Petrovturnedouttobecorrect,butwhathadhappened?TheSovietshadninesatellites,newly
launched,circlingtheplanet,electronicallylinkedtoPetrov'sbunker,eachofwhichwassettodetect
throughtheirinfraredsensorsthehotexhaustsoftheintercontinentalballisticmissilesrisingfromthe
coordinateswheretheSovietsknewtheAmericanshadtheirmissilebasesOneofthesewasMalmstrom
airforcebaseinMontana.Thesatellitesystemwasrelativelynew,andaswewillsee,notwithoutits
flaws.Therewasaveryunusualmeteorologicalphenomenon,highaltitudereflectiveclouds,abovethe
missilebasethatday,andthesunwaspreciselyatsuchananglethatitsreflectionofftheclouds,which
normallyabsorbthelight,reflectedthelightandheat.Insteadofdiffusingthesunlight,thecloudsreflected
itintospace,confusingtheinfra-redsensorsaboardCosmos1382.Thesatellitesentthemessagethatthe
USwasgoingforanuclearattack.Petrov,knowingthatthesatellitedesignswereflawed,didnotcallhis
superiors,guessingthatitwasafalsealarm–andintheeventhishunchprovedtoberight.
Apparentlysuchfalsealarmshadhappenedbefore,andsomeacademicswhoretellthiswell-known
“story”abouttheColdWarpointoutthat,ifPetrovhadn’trecognisedthefalsealarm,oneofhissuperiors
higherupinthechainofcommandmostlikelywouldhave.Still,thepublicationoftheincidentreminds
onethatanaccidentalnuclearholocaustwasnotastatisticalimpossibility:itjustreliedacountable
numberofhumanmisjudgements,allofwhich,oneday,couldhappen.
ThePetrovincidentwasnotwrittenupuntilyearslater.Incontrast,theKALincident,alsoinSeptember
1983,wasverypublic.TheshootdownofaKoreanAirlinespassengerjetbyaSovietfighterafterithad
crossedintointernationalwatersraisedthetemperaturesfurtherthattenseautumn.Theofficialstoryof
thedowningofKAL007isthatitwasshotdownbyaccidentbyajetfighterafteritaccidentallystrayed
intoSovietairspacefollowingacomputernavigationerror.KAL007washeadingtoSeoulfrom
AnchorageinAlaska.BeforeAnchorage,ithadcomefromNewYork.Theknownfactisthat,after20
minutesintoitsjourney,itbegantodeviatetotheright(north)ofitsassignedroutetoawaypoint(an
imaginarynavigationpoint)intheNorthPacificcalledBethel,andcontinuedonthisfaultyrouteona
constantheadingforthenextfiveandahalfhours,whichbroughtthejumbofarintoSovietterritory.
Severalinvestigativejournalistsofgoodrepute,suchasPaulFootandRWJohnson,havearguedthatthe
ultra-experiencedKoreanpilots,whohadflownthisroutedozensoftimesbefore,musthaveknownthey
wereflyingalongthewrongbearingssincetheywereobligedtogetabearingontheirlocationbefore
reportingitateachoftheseveralwaypointsonroute.Theyreportedthe“correct”bearingateachway
pointtogroundcontrolinSeoul,thefinaldestinationsthousandsofkilometresahead,eventhoughradar
trackssubsequentlyrevealedthatateachpointtheywereoffcourse.Howcouldtheypossiblyhavedone
thatingenuineerror?
AlexanderDallin,anAmericanhistorianandpoliticalscientist,authorofbookssuchasPoliticalTerror
inCommunistSystem,wroteawell-researchedbookcalledBlackBox,ontheKALaffair.Hecouldn't
ruleoutthepossibilitythatitwasacovertanti-Sovietmission:testingSovietairdefences,andperhaps
forcingtheSovietsintoaresponsethatwouldembarrasstheminglobalpublicopinioninonewayor
other,althoughthecovertoperativessurelycouldn’thaveimagined.AnotheroneofCIAchiefBill
Casey’sblack-ops?
ItisnowbelievedtheSovietsthoughttheyweretrackingaKC135intelligencegatheringaircraft.Butthe
Americanswereabletoquicklymakerhetoricalhayoftheincident,withGeorgeShultzbitterlyattacking
Sovietbehaviour–itisnotclearwhetherhewouldhavebeenapositiontoknowiftheKoreanAirlines
flightwasaUSsponsoredprovocation.
OnewaytounderstandhowtheSoviets,orthepolitburo,thoughtwastounderstandtheleaderswerefrom
thewargeneration.TheSovietshadlearnedthehistoricallessonfromHitler'sinvasionin1941,when
theyhadbeencaughtbysurprisebyHitler'sattackonseveralfronts..
Theblitzkrieg,theconsequenceoftrustingHitler,despitehisbelligerence,andsufferingdevastating
consequencesfromwhichtheSovietstookyearsofwarcosting20milliondead,toturnaroundfrom,
profoundlycolouredtheSovietpsyche.Especiallyasthepolitburo,intheearly1980s,consistedofold
menwhohadfoughtinWorldWar2,fortyyearsearlierwhentheywereyoungmen.Eveniftheywere
defensive,theSovietshadapolicyofpre-emptingattackwithanattackoftheirown,evenifNATO
startedaconventionalattack.Soiftheyknewtheyweregoingtobeattacked,theysawthenecessityof
strikingfirst.Itwasnotimmoralanditwouldbeintheirinterest,sinceapre-emptiveattackwasthebest
chanceofsurvival.
Palme,likeeveryoneelse,wasworriedthatasingleprovocationcouldsparkoffachainreactionoftit-
for-tatreactionsbetweenthesuperpowersthatmightendinnuclearwar.Nuclearwarwouldend
civilisationontheplanet.Nuclearwarwas,is,anexistentialthreattomankind.
AnotherdangerousincidentoftheColdWartookplaceduringamilitaryexerciseknownasAbleArcher,
whichwasheldbetween2and11November1983.
AbleArcherwasacommandpostexercisethatspannedWesternEuropeandwascentredontheNATO
SupremeHeadquartersAlliedForcesEurope;itsimulatedaperiodofconflictescalation,culminatingina
DEFCON1simulatednuclearattack.Theexerciseintroducedseveralnovelties:newcodedformsof
communication,radiosilencesandtheparticipationofgovernments.
Aswehaveseen,theaccelerationofthefrostinessinthepoliticalclimate–exacerbatedbytheKAL
incident–andtheimminentoutplacementofthecruisemissiles-hadledtoa“warscare”inMoscowthat
autumnof1983.ThepolitburowasdoingeverythingtopreparetheSovietpeople“fortheworst”.Signs
werepostedeverywhereshowingthelocationofairraidshelters,broadcastssuggestingthepossibility
ofUSattackwereonSovietradioandtelevisionseveraltimesaday.MarshalOgarkovwastheoriginal
hawk,butnow,theUSreviewreported,whomAndropovhadnothesitatedtoderideasa
“Napoleonchik”backin1982
,andhehadbeencriticalofReaganfromthestart,butnoweven
officialSovietspokesmenaccusedReaganandhisadvisersof“madness”,“extremism”and
“criminality”.
WesternanalystssawthiswarscareasameanstointimidateNATOandgeneratethesupportofits
populationasadiversionfromtheeconomicstagnation,buttheremayhavebeenarealandrational
elementtothesefears,bothamongpublicsandleaderships.
OlegGordievskywasaMI6doubleagentofficiallyworkingfortheKGBinLondon.Thatwholeautumn,
hehadbeenreceivingaconstantstreamofrequestsfromKGBheadquartersinMoscow,whichinturn
probablyoriginatedwithAndropov,tolookforevidenceinLondonthatNATOwasplanningforwar.
GordievskywasaskedtomonitornewsstoriesintheBritishmediaforstockpiling,rationing
announcements;agentswereeveninstructedtocountthenumberofcarsandlitupwindowsattheBritish
MinistryofDefenceatweekendsontheassumptionthat,ifNATOwasplanninganattack,civilservants
wouldbeworkingovertimetoplanit,soworkingevenonweekends.Agentsatotherstationswerebeing
askedthesamething.
TherealisticnatureoftheAbleArcherexercise,combinedwithSovietparanoiaanddeterioratingUS-
Sovietrelations,ledsomemembersofthepolitburotobelievetheexercisewasaruseofwar,obscuring
preparationsforagenuinenuclearfirststrike.
NATOofcourse,hadplannednosuchattack.ButthedangerousthingiswhattheSovietsthoughtNATO
weredoing,andwhethertheywouldrespondtothatwitharealpre-emptiveattackoftheirown,launching
worldwar3.Sovietmilitarydoctrineheldthatanuclearattackcouldbeeffectivelyobscuredbywar
gamesormilitaryexercises–ontheirside,andtherefore,inSovietlogic,itmusthavebeenthecasealso
ontheNATOside.
AccordingtoNATO’sAbleArcherexercise,whichwasentirelysimulatedoverradio,the“Orange”side
invadedtheScandinaviancountriesofFinlandandNorway,followedbyWestGermany.
OnthemorningofNovember8,1983,theNATOcommandinEurope,thesupremealliedcommand
Europe,SACEUR,requested“initiallimiteduseofnuclearweaponsagainstpre-selectedfixedtargets.
Requestwasapprovedbypoliticalauthoritiesintheevening,andtheweaponswereemployedonthe
morningof9November."
Inresponsetothis,theSovietsapparentlyreadiedtheirnuclearforcesandplacedairunitsinPolandand
EastGermanyonmaximumalert.
AtopsecretintelligencereviewquotedbytheWashingtonPostinOctober2015concludesthat“in1983,
wemayhaveinadvertentlyplacedourrelationswiththeSovietUniononahairtrigger.”Thearticledrew
oninformationrevealedinadeclassified190pagedocument,titledthe“Sovietwarscare”,whichwas
datedFebruary15,1990andwrittenthePresident’sForeignIntelligenceAdvisoryBoard,aWhiteHouse
unitthatexaminedintelligenceissues.Theauthorsofthereviewcarriedout75interviewswithAmerican
andBritishofficials..
WhilesomeSovietsmilitarymensaylatertheydidn’treallythinkNATOwasabouttolaunchanuclear
war–andMikhailGorbachevcanconfirmitwasn’tdiscussedinthepolitburo–MarshalOrgakov,chief
oftheSovietgeneralstaff,didinfactmovetoanundergroundbunkerunderneathMoscow,fromwhichhe
orderedtheheightenedalertofsomeSovietforces.
TheSovietswounddowntheirimmediatepracticalpreparationwhentheNATOfortunatelyended
uneventfullyafewdayslater.ButtheinstructionstothelocalKGBagentstobealertforwarpreparations
lastedforquitesometimeyet.OlegGordievsky–thedoubleagentwhobriefedThatcherthattheSoviets
reallywerepreparedforwar–saidlaterthatAndropovwasoldfashioned“believerofCommunist
dogmas”andreallybelievedReaganmightpressthenuclearbuttonandreducetheSovietUniontoa
literal“ashheap”.(AspertheunfortunatelychosenphraseinhisspeechtotheBritishparliament.)
AfterbeingbriefedbyThatcheronwhatGordievskyhadcommunicatedtoher,historianssayReaganwas
genuinelyshocked;thatitmarkedaturningpointforReagan,accordingtoWashingtonPost’sColdwar
expert,veteranjournalistDavidHoffman,writingin2015.ReaganrealisedthattheSovietUnionmay
haveharbouredtruefearsaboutanAmericanattack.Reaganwroteinhisdiaryon18November1983
that“IfeelthattheSovietsaresodefenceminded,soparanoidaboutbeingattackedthat,withoutbeingin
anywaysoftonthem,weoughttotellthemthatnoonehereasanyintentionofdoinganythinglike
that.”
TheincidentwouldhavestrengthenedalineofthoughtthathadbeendevelopinginReagan’s
mindforsometime.AspartofhisindoctrinationintotheAbleArcherexercise(inwhichhedidnot
participate)ReaganwasbriefedontheUSnuclearwarplan,theSingleIntegratedOperationalPlan
(SIIP).HehadalsojustwatchedaprivateshowingoftheantinuclearwarfilmtheDayAfter,which
showedthehorrificaftermathofanattackonacityinKansas.ReaganleftthebriefinginthePentagon
questioningthesanityofthosewhobelievedanuclearwarcouldbewon.Hewroteinhisdiary:‘In
severalwaysthesequenceofeventsdescribedinthebriefingsparalleledthoseintheABCmovie.Yet
therewerestillsomepeopleatthePentagonwhoclaimedanuclearwarwas‘‘winnable’’.Ithoughtthey
werecrazy.’”OnewondershereifReaganhadcompletecontroloverhishawksorovertheAmerican
militarycomplex,orperhapstheywerepursuingtheirownhighriskagendas–and,who,forinstance,
wouldhavebeenincontrolovertheSwedishoperation.
AfterAbleArcher,proddedbyGeorge
Shultz,hissecretaryofstate,andNancyReagan,ReaganbeganhandingoutfeelerstotheSovietUnion.
Butbeforethatconversionherewereafewcoldyearsintheearly1980swhentheUnitedStatesappeared
topresentafrontofunitedhostilityagainsttheUSSR.Anditwasexactlyescalationsintohightensionlike
AbleArcherthatPalmehadwarnedagainstinhisspeechesaboutpeace.Atatime,from1980to1983,
whenthesuperpowersvirtuallywerenottalkingtoeachother,perhapshethoughthewastheonlyman
whocouldbringworldpeacethroughdialogue.Whenheandhiscommissionstarted,dialoguebetween
EastandWesthadtotallyfrozentoahalt,andgotworsewithReagan’s(orrathertheReagan
administration’shawks’)belligerence.
FastforwardafewyearsfromtheendoftheAbleArcherscareinearly1984tothespringof1985.
TherewasanewleaderinMoscow,MikhailGorbachev.PalmestillhadpoorrelationswithWestern
leaders.TransitingHeathrowenroutetoanotherpeaceconferenceinCanada,Palme’sluggagewas
carefullysearchedatHeathrow,theonlypersontobethussearchedonaplanefullofyouthworkers,
accordingtoaformerpartyofficial.Itwasordered,hebelievedasahumiliationbyMI6.
ButPalmehadbetterluckinhisinfluenceeastwards.GorbachevwassaidtobeinspiredbyPalme’s
approachtocommonsecurity;andthatwasoneofthesubjectsthetwowereexpectedtotalkabouton
Palme’splannedvisittoMoscowinApril1986,justafterthemurder.AccordingtoGeoffreyWiseman,a
professorofInternationalRelationsattheUniversityofSouthernCalifornia,writinginarecentanthology
aboutthe1980speacemovement,“Palme’sreportofJune1982(whichfelldeadfromthepressesatthe
time)wastranslatedintoRussianwithoutdeletionsandhelpedGorbachevintroduce‘commonsecurity’to
theSovietpublicandtherebyconsolidatesupportforthenewthinking.”AndreiKokoshin,adirectorof
thethinktankISKANwholaterbecameadeputyforeignminister,alsoadmittedinspiration.Accordingto
WisemanhewastheleadingdefencetheoristinGorbachev’sRussia.Gorbachevlappedallthisup.
“UnderGorbachev,theSovietUnionactivelypromotedcommonsecurityandnon-offensivedefence
diplomaticallyattheUNandelsewhere.Whenthetalksonlimitationofarmedforceswerebegunin
1990,theWarsawpact’snegotiatingpositioncontainednonoffensiveideas.”
WhilethewesternpoliticianlikeReagancametoembraceGorbachev,aftersummitsatGenevain1985
andReykjavikin1986,ashesoldthemarepackagedvariantofthePalmecommission’sthinking,the
WesternintelligenceservicesanddefenceofficialswereforalongtimesuspiciousofGorbachev.
Thedefenceindustryandintelligenceservicesjustcouldn’tbelieveGorbywasasgoodasheseemed.
AccordingtoMarkUrban,aBritishintelligencestudiesspecialistwriter,inUKEyesAlpha,“Percy
Cradock,theJointIntelligenceCommitteechairman,feltadeepscepticismabouttheGorbymaniathat
wassweepingtheWest”,Urbanwritesfurther:“JIC'sviewoftheGorbachevspeechinFebruaryandof
otherstatementsthatsoonfollowedwas,accordingtosomeonepartytotheAssessmentsStaffpapersof
thetime,thattheywere'apragmaticwayofapproachingadisastrouseconomicsituation,puttingona
differentfacetotheWestwhilenotreducinghisconventionalmilitarycapability'.
ThenotionofGorbachevastwo-facedcamefrequentlyfromprominentBritishintelligenceofficials.
Incidentally,didtheBritishmakeananalysisofPalme’svisittoGorbachevinApril1986,anddidtheir
viewofGorbachevaffecttheirreadingofthesituation?ThePentagon'sSovietMilitaryPowerand
Britain'sStatementontheDefenceEstimates,orDefenceWhitePaper,weretwoveryhawkish
documents.Theywerecirculatedtodefenceofficialsandpoliticiansinparliamentandcongress
respectively,andhadtheirownagenda.
AccordingtoUrban,“MuchofthePentagondocumentwasgearedtohelpingUSservicechiefsget
fundingfortheirownprojects…itsaidthatanewSovietgunshiphelicoptercode-namedHavocwas
'expectedtobedeployedinthenearfuture'.Infact,by1996,Havochasstillnotgoneintoservice.
However,theUSArmysuccessfullyusedthethreatofthenewSoviethelicoptertogettheadministration
andCongresstoprovidefundsforhundredsofadditionalApachegunshipsofitsown.”
PerhapstheColdWarwouldhavemarchedmerrilyonhadnotReaganundergonehismysterious
conversiontothecausesofpeace,charmedinpartbythereasonableseemingGorbachev,andthenear
missexperienceofAbleArcher.By1985,Reaganhadtoneddownthecoldwarrhetoricconsiderably.
InReykyavik,in1986,heevenproposedtheabolitionofnuclearweaponstoGorbachev.
WhileThatcher,likeReagan,butunlikeherintelligenceofficials,hadbeencharmedbyGorbachev,she
thoughtabandoningnukeswasasteptoofar.
MarkUrbanwrites:“TheIcelandsummithadcauseddeepanxietiesinLondon.Therewasafeelingthat
theAtlanticalliancemightcrackunderthestressoftheKremlin'sblandishments.TomKing,aCabinet
memberatthetime,believesthattherewasafeelingatReykjavikthattheColdWarwasallverymuch
on.That'swhyMargaretThatcherwassoconcernedaboutwhatPresidentReaganmighthavebeen
signingupto.Theideathathemighthavegonetoofarwasanindicationofpeople'slackofconfidence
thattheworldhadreallychanged.”
WhileReaganalwaystookThatcherseriously,GeorgeShultzforgedaheadwithpeacetalks,disregarding
theevidencefromtheBritishandAmericanmilitaryandintelligencecommunitieswhodistrusted
Gorbachev.MortonAbramowitz,Schultz'sAssistantSecretaryforIntelligenceandResearch,saidthathis
bossprovedmuchbetterthanthespooksatreadingGorbachev’sintentions,aGorbachevwhohadbeen
inspiredbyOlofPalme.AbramowitztoldUrban:“TheleadersoftheCIAwerealmostinvariablywrong,
andtheBritishwereinthesameschool.GeorgeShultzwasright.Hewasnotanintelligenceman,buthe
wasmeetingGorbachevandhisforeignministerShevardnadze.Thepolicytypesweremuchbetterin
theirjudgementthantheintelligencetypesinWashington.AsforBritishintelligence,youcanneverbeto
therightofthem.”Thatis,itwasimpossibletomorerightwingthanMI6.
In1989,GorbachevabandonedthetraditionalRussian/SovietimperialistapproachtowardsPolandtogo
along,approvingeven,theelectionofthefirstnon-CommunistgovernmentinCentralandEasternEurope.
SixmonthslatertheBerlinWallfell.EastandWestGermanywerereunified.Thenew,reunifiedcountry
joinedNATO.Itwasabold,andrisky,moveforGorbachevtoallowtheGermanstheirrighttochoose
theownsecurityarrangementsandbeinchargeoftheirownsovereignty.
Inrecognitionofallthis,GorbachevwontheNobelPeacePrizeinDecember1990inrecognitionofthe
“radicalchangesthathavetakenplaceinEast-Westrelations.”Inhisacceptancespeech,whichwasanod
toPalmecommonsecurityideas,Gorbachevsaidthatthe“wholeworldneedsPerestroika”;Perestroika
wastheRussianwordfor“reconstruction”whichhassincepassedintotheEnglishlanguage.Itreferred
tothelargepsychologicalchangesthatthenewerarequiredofbothparties.Whathemeant,presumably,
wasthattheWest’sColdWarwarriorshadajourneyofreconciliationandunderstandingtomakethat
Sovietshadmade.In2016,itisclearthattheWest’scoldwarwarriorsstillhaven’tmadethatjourney.
14.CONCLUSION
SwedenwasafrontlinestateintheColdWar,acountrypoisedbetweenEastandWest,andthethesisof
thisbookisthatthecountrywasverymuchdraggedintothepoliticalandcovertwarfarethattookplace
betweentheUSSRandtheUnitedStates.Wehaveseenthroughamixtureofopensourcesandarchive
materialandTunander’sworkhowtheWestputpressureonthegovernmentsofWesternEurope,
especiallyWestGermany;butalsoNorwayandSweden.TheSocialDemocratsofnorthernEurope
believedpoliticsvis-à-vistheSovietUnioncouldhavebeendonedifferently;promotingdialogueand
changethroughtrade,ratherthanahighriskconfrontationpolicyoftheearlyReaganyears.Wehaveseen
throughtheworkofhistoriansintotheCIAthatUScovertoperationsaroundtheworldwerequite
extensive–anditmaybethatthemostsecretandsensitiveAmericancovertoperationshavenotyetcome
tolight.TheGermanresearcherandjournalistwhotoldmeaboutthetopplingofSchmidt–theCIA
payingintoaslushfundtogettheFDPtodefect-claimedhehadseveralsourcesforthis.Boththis
sourceandOlaTunanderclaimtheirarticlesontheSwedishsubmarinetopicandthefateofSchmidtare
dismissedasunpublishableoutrightbytheeditorsofintelligenceandsecurityjournals.“Thesethingsare
notupfordiscussion,”onejournaleditortoldTunander.Anothersourcetoldmethathisarticleon
submarinesforajournalwaspulledatthelastmomentbecauseof“ordersfromthetop”,theeditorsaid
sheepishly.Tobespecific:toplevelNATOmilitaryandpoliticalpressure.Doubtlessfuturehistorians
willbeabletogetamorecompletepicture.
ThesubmarineincidentsshouldnotbeseeninisolationfromeventsintheColdWaratlarge.Andthey
mustreallybeintegratedintoSweden’smodernhistory.TheproblemisevenPalme’sSwedish
biographers,goodastheyare,don’tknowwhattodoaboutthesubmarineintrusions,andtendtoturnthem
intoafootnote.RespectedSwedishRussiascholars,suchasKristianGerner,havetoldmebyemail
Tunanderisa“conspiracytheorist”;butwithoutdemonstratinganyfamiliaritywithhisscholarship.I
haven’tseenanybookinSwedishcurrentaffairsorhistorythatshowsanyawarenessofthefactthatthe
CIAhasbeenjustasbusymeddlinginothercountries’affairs,topplinggovernments,fundingcoups,
spreadingpropaganda,carryingoutsecretops.TheSwedishacademiccommunityisstillquite
intellectuallynaive.ForafurtheranalysisofthemostimportantoftheColdWarinSweden,thePalme
assassination,seemyotherbook,availableonKindle,theLifeandDeathofOlofPalme,foracasemade
forwhohadcarriedoutthemurder.IfWashingtondidhelptoppleHelmutSchmidt,asmyGermansource
claimshehasseveralcontactstellinghim,didtheygooneterriblestepfurtherwithPalme?Unbelievable
thoughitmaysound,IdoactuallyhaveonerespectablecontacttellingmethatWesternintelligenceagents
wereinStockholmtheyearafterthemurder,in1987,ona“clean-up”and“disinformation”operation.
ButIjusthavetotakehiswordforthisandtherearemanydetailedtheoriesaboutthePalme
assassination.
Toooften,Swedenhistoriansdon’tknowquitewhattomakeofthesubmarineincidents,leavingthemasa
mystery.ItisverydifficultforthelargelyAmericanophileSwedishhistoriansandjournalists,withafew
exceptions,tograspandaccept.Manyoftheyoungeroneshavestakedtheirrisingcareersonthe
inventionofPutin’sRussiaasanaggressivestate;anarrativethatcomesstraightoutoftheCIAplaybook.
AfterPalmewasassassinated,SwedenceasedtoplayanindependentroleinglobalorEuropeanaffairs.
Itwasnolongeraconscienceoftheworld,a“thirdforce”;itjoinedtheEU,where,asareluctantJohnny-
come-lately,ithasplayedaquietandsubsidiaryroleasanoff-handexampleofenvironmentaland
prostitutionpolicyrectitude.Since2006,ithasquietlyapproachedNATO,culminatinginthedecisionin
September2014whenforeignministerCarlBildtsignedanagreementthatwouldmakeSwedenahost
countryforNATOreinforcementsandbasesintheeventofacrisis,afirststepintothedefence
organisation.FullNATOmembershipforSwedenwouldtrulybealifetimeachievementforCarlBildt,
andfinallyburyPalme’slegacyforever.ThatwouldmarktheclimaxofathirtyyearassaultonSweden’s
independentforeignpolicythatbeganthatmorningwiththesightingofthefirstWesternsubmarinein
Hårsfjärden.AndPalme’sassassinationisstillunsolved.
TheAge,Crozierobit,14August2012
PaulRoutledge,PublicServant,PrivateAgent
TheAgeibid
FreeAgent,Crozier,p127ff
AllquotesfromCharlesMoore,MargaretThatcherbiographyvolume1
See1968:theworldtransformed,CarolaFink,p191ff
FromOstpolitiktoReunification,AvrilPittman,p81ff
Ibidp81
Spohr,GlobalChancellor,p8
JosepgSterne,SchmidtdisclaimsnuclearweaponsBaltimoreSunOct301981alsoquotedRichardThorntonReagan
RevolutionII
http://blog.oup.com/2016/04/helmut-schmidt-jimmy-carter/
Loc2868
BradleyGraham,BonnadvisesagainstcurbsonPoland
http://www.margaretthatcher.org/archive/1982cac6.asp
BulletinoftheAtom icScientistsFeb1982,“LastRoundupforNATO”https://books.google.se/books?
id=ggoAAAAAMBAJ&pg=PA3&lpg=PA3&dq=572+cruise+missiles&source=bl&ots=c0cSyv55hp&sig=F6fzeh5r8H31XHHseN6gHOAAOCc&hl=en&sa=X&ei=x_U9VZG 3J8iwsAH_ooHADA&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=572% 20cruise% 20missiles&f=false
ProfilesinProtest,ChristianScienceMonitor,25January 1983DavidWillis
ThestruggleagainsttheBom b,LaurenceWittner,2003
Ibid
Wittner,ibid,p151
Thatcherm em oirs,thedowningstreetsSwedishversionp206
ThatcherDowningstreety earsp224
Gleesp202
EatrlRavelSanFranciscoChronicle5March1986
Ibid
Telegram 081/2Stockholm Em bassy DMurray 5August1981
Matsson,p73
AndersHasselbohm ,Ubåtshotet,1983,pp70-71
Weinerp21
http://www.apnewsarchive.com/2000/Weinberger-Sweden-Let-Subs-In/id-f0a9cfd83c430978e654
AllquotesfromprologueofWecomeunseen
SeeforexampleContramagazine,http://www.contra.nu/English992.html
EmailfromFrithiofson,25November2015
Tunander,SubsandPsyops,draftnumber228,2015,p70andelsewhere,alsointerviewFrithiofson
EmailfromInmantoFrithiofson,22May2015,quotedinTunanderSubsandPsyops,p57
TheAtlantic,theCreepylongstandingpracticeofunderseacabletapping
Img_20131113_152858
Whitehallplaysdownattackbyfirstsealord,Times,4Sep1982
SeeMikaelHolmstrom,DoldaAlliansen,2011
AndersHasselbohmDagensNyheter1992-02-02UndervattensSpionagegodtogs
Hennessy554
P555Hennessy
ForinformationaboutNordli,seeOneofUs:TheStoryofAndersBreivikandtheMassacreinNorway,ByAsneSeierstad
ChapterChangesinthecountry
Ausland,TheTimes,1Dec1980,Norway
FCOWRY022/579/1dsc_108531Dec1980
dsc_1260telno210,24December1980Oslo
Dsc_1277,telno100,30Dec1980
Dsc_1144lettertoarmscontroldept
Norway,theTimes,JohnAusland,1Dec1980
Dsc_1138to1144,lettertoarmscontroldepartment,Whitehall,3December1980
Dsc_1138to1144,lettertoarmscontroldepartment,Whitehall,3December1980
dsc_0151
dsc_0152
dsc_0153
Dsc_0173UKtel00810February1981
Norway’sSearchforNordpolitik,JohanJorgenHolst,ForeignAffairs,Fall1981
Norway’sSearchforNordpolitik,JohanJorgenHolst,ForeignAffairs,Fall1981
-RecordssoftalkswithMssrsMobverlyandHurd,10Feb1981dsc_199to209
13May1981TelfromOsloembdsc_0291ff
26May1981UKpermrepBrussselstoWhitehall,dsc_0051ff
Telegram,BritembOslo,26May1981,dsc_0268ff
Dsc_0261minute8June1981
PoliticalleadersofconmtemporaryWesternEuropeabiographicaldictionary
Seewikipediachurchcommittee
Weinerp157
Weiner
Weinerp186
AllegedplotsinvolvingforeignleadersUSsenateselectcommitteetostudygovernmentaloperationswithrespecttointelligenceactivities,SRepno755,94
th
Congress,secondsessionViawikipediaarticleonCastroassassinationattempts
Wikipediaarticleonkillingcastro,assassinationplotscastro
th
anniversaryofmilitarycoup
http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/NSAEBB/NSAEBB465/
TheMessthatNulandmade,ConsortiumNews,13July2015,thatsitebyawardwinningjournalistRobertParryisbrillianton
UScovertopsandpoliticalstrategt
Blum,America'sDeadliestExportp7
Kinzer,Overthrow,p13
Steelep79
StevenColl,GhostWars,chapter3,GoandraiseHell
Collibid
LennartLjungDiary(1978-86).23November1983.QuotedinTunanderSubsandPsyopsp138
N.Ogarkov,‘GuardingPeacefulLabor,’inJointPublicationsResearchService,
USSRReport:TranslationsfromKommunist(JPRS790740),25September1981,p.86.QuotedinFisher
SeeV1adimirE.Shlapentok,‘Moscow'sWarPropagandaandSovietPublicOpinion,’ProblemsofCommunism33
(September-October1984),pp.8894andElizabethTeague,‘WarScareintheUSSR,’inVojtechMastnyed.,SovietlEastEuropeanSurvey,
19831984:SelectedResearchandAnalysisfromRadioFreeEuropelRadioLiberty(Durham,NC:DukeUniversityPress,1985),pp.71
76.QuotedinFisher
http://www.nytimes.com/1985/04/21/books/theories-and-conspiracy-theories.html
Fisher,Nobelessay
WashingtonPost,Oct24,2015In1983warscare,SovietleadershipfearedsurprisieattackbyUS
LenScott(2011)IntelligenceandtheRiskofNuclearWar:AbleArcher-83Revisited,IntelligenceandNationalSecurity,
26:6,759-777
Document Outline
- 1. Margaret Thatcher and the Spies
- 2.Reagan takes on West Germany
- 3. Hawks versus Doves
- 4.The dangers of ‘Swedenization’
- 5. Whiskey on the Rocks
- 6.Ghost Hunt: Hårsfjärden
- 7. Ghost hunt mystery resolved
- 8. Admissions and denials
- 9.The West's campaign on the Northern Flank
- 10.Norway under pressure from NATO
- 11. A short history of US Covert operations
- 12.The Olof Palme murder
- 13.Palme, the dove of peace
- 14. Conclusion
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