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20th Lecture - Little-Known Poker Tips That Bring Big Profit

Little-Known Poker Tips That Bring Big Profit
The following lecture was the 20th Tuesday Session, held February 16, 1999, and later
appeared in Card Player magazine

Most people tend to feel smug about what they know. Poker players are no different.

"She didn't even have enough common sense not to raise with her three sixes! What did she
think the guy had, aces up? Obviously he was going for a flush and he either made it or he
missed it. So, why raise?" How many times have you heard comments like that?

Me too. We hear them all the time. This is just the way people who have gained knowledge
and are proud of it try to make their superiority known. They are seeking to elevate
themselves above others. No big deal. Happens all the time. But, what I teach is that you need
to think back. Way back. I frequently ask students, "When did you first realize that?"

Maybe they gloat, "Oh, gosh, I realized that over 20 years ago!"

"OK," I say, "Then what were you thinking five minutes before you realized that?" And
there's the point. For everything we know, there was a time five minutes earlier when we
didn't know it. Some say I'm an egomaniac. I guess they're right. Maybe I could sit at the final
table in life's egomania word championship. But, you know what? I wouldn't win. And the
reason I wouldn't win is simply because I realize that for every concept that I have mastered
and swear by, there was a long period of ignorance that preceded it.

So, let's talk about today's column. We're going to discuss things that very few players know.
But after I tell you about them, they'll become part of your poker wisdom. And then you
might feel smug because others don't know these things. If that happens, think back to the
time, right now, when you had read to this point and no further.

This was the 20th in my serious of Tuesday Session classroom lectures at Mike Caro
University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy. It was delivered last February and is
specially enhanced for Card Player…

Little-Known Poker Tips that Bring Big Profit

Pause two-and-a-hand seconds before you bluff.

This is serious advice. If you bet instantly or wait too long, you might make opponents
suspicious. You are likely to trigger their calling reflexes.

You've heard me talk often about that "calling reflex." Most opponents want to call.
They didn't come to the cardroom to be bored and throw hands away. So, they have a
bias toward calling, and anything you do that seems even slightly suspicious can
trigger their calling reflex.

I have carefully observed opponents in this regard for many years. While I have no
conclusive scientific answer, counting mentally, "One thousand one, one thousand
two, one thousand -" seems to work best before you bluff. Now, be aware that the

length of time may be different for various situations and for specific opponents. No
two people react precisely the same way to stimulus, but two-and-a-half seconds
seems like the perfect pause against most foes.

However, if you determine that an opponent already has mentally surrendered on his
hand, bluffing instantly may be better. Doing so doesn't give the opponent time to
reevaluate. He is prepared to fold, and you take advantage of this with an instant
wager. Usually, though, an instant bet just makes opponents suspicious. Also, if you
pause too long before you bluff, opponents become suspicious and are likely to call.

Wait the two-and-a-half seconds. Try it. And remember, your bluff isn't likely to
succeed most of the time whether you pause appropriately or not. But in limit poker
games, you only need to win once in a while to justify a bluff. That's because the pots
are much bigger than the wagers, making the rewards much bigger than the risks.

An opponent clearing his throat after betting has a medium-strong hand and

almost never anything else.
Often you'll hear a player (always a male) clear his throat after making a bet. This is a
little-analyzed, unconscious male trait. It is a way of preparing psychologically for
whatever may come. Players tend not to do this when they're bluffing. Then, they're
typically quiet and unmoving, fearing that any action may trigger a call. And, if they
have especially strong hands, they don't have to prepare themselves for the possibility
being beaten. Thus no throat clearing.

Two-handed bets are more likely to be called.

Use this technique sometimes when you're sure you're betting the best hand. The two-
handed action looks suspicious to most opponents and triggers their calling reflex. I
have been using this technique successfully for years, but I guess I'll have to stop after
blurting that out. Damn!

Opponents engaged in conversation who don't pause when they first look at their

freshly dealt hand are likely to fold.
Observe and use this information to mentally move yourself to a "later" position (with
reduced opening requirements). When you know opponents waiting to act behind you
won't play, you can be much more aggressive in attacking. This wins extra profit and
helps your image.

When players first look at their hands and see something they like and intend to play,
it is natural for them to pause and consider exactly how they will proceed. Raise? Just
call? Lure players into the pot? All these questions and many more go through their
minds. So, if they're carrying on a conversation, they will pause or stammer when they
see a playable hand. In the absence of this pause, usually cross them off the list of
possible threats and pretend you're in a later position. You can then play slightly
weaker hands because not as many opponents have a chance of beating you.

One way to maximize your sandbagging profit is to threaten to call after

checking.
Players may bluff, thinking you're insincere about your verbal remark or gesture
indicating a call. If they have medium hands, they feel safer about betting them, not
thinking they'll face an uncomfortable raise. But that's exactly what they'll face.

By threatening to call, you've actually forced your opponents into what I call
"either/or" evaluation. Either you'll call or you won't. In addition to making it seem
safe for your opponents to bet marginal hands, often they may try to bluff, seeing their
chances for success as a virtual coin-flip. The third possibility (and the truth), that
you'll raise, seldom occurs to them.

Try to identify opponents who are playing at a limit above their norm.

These players typically are uncomfortable. They are more likely to just call with
borderline hands than to raise. They often can be bluffed. The unfamiliar, higher limit
makes them among your easiest-to-beat, most predictable foes.

Even if you know you'll earn more (on average) if everyone passes, often you

should still try to get called.
How come? If you could get everyone to pass, you would. Unless you hold an
unusually strong hand, there's usually more money in the pot right now - comprised of
blinds, antes, and initial bets - than you can expect to earn on average (considering
wins and losses) by playing to a showdown. But usually, players will call, even if you
don't want that to happen. So, your biggest profit, in those cases, is usually to
encourage extra calls from weak hands.

Caro's Great Law of Betting:

You should only bet if the value of betting is greater than the value of checking. Never
forget that checking can have value as a poker weapon. It has the value of deception,
and more. Checking and then calling may earn more than betting and hoping to be
called. There's actually a lot more to this concept, and the reasoning gets fairly
complex. But, today, just remember the big premise.

Repeating: In order to justify a bet, the value of betting must be greater than the value
of checking. If you begin to thing about wagering that way, you'll earn a lot more
money. - MC