page_26 < previous page page_26 next page > Page 26 annum between 1945 and 1959.4 A second, much more recent estimate indicates that economic growth took place only during six years out of thirty-six between 1921 and 1956.5 Between 1955 and 1975 Haiti’s real GDP increased some 1.7 per cent per year,6 while at the same time the population growth rate amounted to 1.6 per cent,7 leaving the per capita product virtually stagnant.8 The estimates for the latter half of the 1970s differ. A World Bank report points to a real yearly growth rate between 1975 and 1979 in the order of 4.4 per cent,9 but this figure is quite probably an overestimate, one which is due to an over-optimistic view of agricultural performance.10 The last three years, finally, do not appear to change the overall picture very much: 1979 displayed a decline in real GDP per capita of around 0.3 per cent; 1980 showing considerable improvement (plus 5.3 per cent); and 1981 being a year with no growth at all in real output, i.e. with a decrease in GDP per capita equal to the rate of population growth.11 In 1979, Haiti’s GNP per capita was estimated to US$260, the same level as that of Pakistan, Tanzania and mainland China.12 All the above figures are admittedly based on different sets of crude assumptions and estimation techniques. Still, they quite probably convey a fairly accurate picture of the long-term trends in the Haitian economy, being by and large confirmed by other types of information.13 Thus, we may conclude that during the past fifty years or so the real gross domestic product per capita during the most favorable moments has been growing, but only very slightly, with stagnation, and at times even decline being the rule. The Haitian economy during the past twenty-five to fifty years has failed to show any visible signs of development. The per capita income has by and large remained stagnant and the number of absolute poor has not been reduced. The task of identifying some of the most important forces that impede economic development from taking place in Haiti, i.e. the forces which keep an increasing number of Haitians in a state of absolute poverty, making the real income of important segments of the population stagnate and fall in the long run, will occupy us during the remainder of this chapter. Since Haiti’s rurality is overwhelming, and urban activities occupy a minority of labor force, we will concentrate mainly on the basic activity: agriculture, placed, however, in a wider setting. The discussion will focus on three areas: population growth and erosion, technological stagnation, and market imperfections. Each one of these areas will be dealt with in turn. < previous page page_26 next page >