The Global Intelligence Files - Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels The Global Intelligence Files, files released so far... 1119 The Global Intelligence Files Index pages List of Releases by Date of Document unspecified 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 by Date of Release 2001-03-13 2010-03-10 2011-03-05 2011-03-15 2012-01-29 2012-02-27 2012-02-28 2012-02-29 2012-03-01 2012-03-02 2012-03-03 2012-03-04 2012-03-05 2012-03-06 2012-03-07 2012-03-08 2012-03-09 2012-03-10 2012-03-11 2012-03-12 2012-03-13 2012-03-14 2012-03-15 2012-03-16 2012-03-17 2012-03-19 2012-03-20 2012-03-23 2012-03-25 2012-03-26 2012-03-27 2012-04-01 2012-04-02 2012-04-24 2012-04-26 2012-04-30 2012-05-10 2012-06-18 2012-06-20 Our Partners ABC Color - Paraguay Al Akhbar - Lebanon Al Masry Al Youm - Egypt Asia Sentinel - Hong Kong Bivol - Bulgaria Carta Capital - Brazil CIPER - Chile Dawn Media - Pakistan L'Espresso - Italy La Repubblica - Italy La Jornada - Mexico La Nacion - Costa Rica Malaysia Today - Malaysia McClatchy - United States Nawaat - Tunisia NDR/ARD - Germany Owni - France Pagina 12 - Argentina Philip Dorling - Fairfax media contributor - Australia Plaza Publica - Guatemala Publica - Brazil Publico.es - Spain Rolling Stone - United States Russian Reporter - Russia Ta Nea - Greece Taraf - Turkey The Hindu - India The Yes Men - Bhopal Activists Sunday Star-Times - New Zealand Community resources Supporters Support Wikileaks Follow us on Twitter Twitter this Follow us on Facebook courage is contagious The Global Intelligence Files On Monday February 27th, 2012, WikiLeaks began publishing The Global Intelligence Files, over five million e-mails from the Texas headquartered "global intelligence" company Stratfor. The e-mails date between July 2004 and late December 2011. They reveal the inner workings of a company that fronts as an intelligence publisher, but provides confidential intelligence services to large corporations, such as Bhopal's Dow Chemical Co., Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and government agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security, the US Marines and the US Defence Intelligence Agency. The emails show Stratfor's web of informers, pay-off structure, payment laundering techniques and psychological methods. Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels Email-ID 884921 Date 2011-10-24 20:33:26 From [e-mail] To [e-mail] List-Name [e-mail] Good point. In terrorist terms they are more like grassroots people than AQ core. From: Sean Noonan Reply-To: Analyst List Date: Mon, 24 Oct 2011 13:11:05 -0500 To: Analyst List Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels Somehow we have to stop referring to 'anonymous' as a monolith. They are a bunch of different people that essentially get together in an online-form of a mob to carry out some action. I'm not sure how to do this in writing consistently. But let's start with shit like 'people joining Anonymous chatrooms and claiming to be part of the movement' or something like that. Comments in green below. This is coming together nicely. On 10/24/11 11:19 AM, Tristan Reed wrote: do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US? What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. I will have to relisten to video to see if they specifically mention whether all examples were in Mexico. The Taxi drivers are significant because they were specifically mentioned as one of the targets in revealing cartel connections. It also demonstrates a lack of understanding of who they are attacking. A taxi driver in Acapulco is expendable to cartels, but may also be cooperating with cartels out of coercion. Anonymous does not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed. Agreed, but I want to specify that Anonymous can not directly effect physical security. Any impact to the cartel in revealing information will be from actions of rival cartels or the GoM. They may release information on a given politician being linked to the cartels, but it's not a guarantee that the politician will feel an impact (Just because Anonymous says there is a link, doesn't make it true). It would be up to others to take action. I think the way you have it worded in the above sentence is good. Follow with a sentence explaining the rest of it, because readers will have the same question Karen did. Something like 'Rather, the threat to cartels would come in what information anonymous could expose that is useful to their enemies' Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability I have heard of cartels doing business online, but don't have specific examples which could be used in assessing their vulnerability online. by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time. Point taken, I should say, there is not a guarantee of consequences for calling out politicians as colluding. On 10/24/11 9:46 AM, Karen Hooper wrote: Karen Hooper Latin America Analyst o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103 c: 512.750.7234 STRATFOR www.stratfor.com On 10/24/11 9:32 AM, Tristan Reed wrote: Reposting this with a new shorter focus. Instead of discussing possible cartel responses, the focus is on what type of threat Anonymous can pose to cartels. The video released by people using the banner of Anonymous, threatens revealing personal information on cartels as well as states a member had been kidnapped. I could not find any sources outside of Anonymous' claims of the individual being kidnapped. According to their facebook sites (Anonymous Mexico and Anonymous Veracruz) it sounds like it may be an individual posting flyers ['critical of cartels'?] in Veracruz as part of the Operation Paperstorm protest, although that is speculation. [this is good and will be enough information to go with, though you'll need a quick explanation of what 'operation paperstorm' is. Adding something in the explaining the flyers will work] Link: themeData Anonymous, a decentralized hacker collective famous for distributed denial-of-service (DDOS) attacks on government and corporate websites, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video depicting a masked individual addressing Mexican drug cartels on October 10? With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels in Mexico. Threats such as releasing identities of taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels do they specify whether or not these are all in Mexico? Are some of these in the US? What is the significance of singling out taxi drivers?. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member are not met. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents a unique threat towards TCOs [If TCO= transnational criminal organization, it's not really unique. Many such organizations do their crimes online, and have been hacked in response--like the nigerian princess scams. I think you should just say it's a unique threat to DTOs] . We know of cartels lashing out at online bloggers, but I haven't seen any reporting on cartels dealing with any headaches from hackers before. What Anonymous brings to the table in a conflict o Anonymous would not pose a direct physical security threat to Mexican cartels. mmmm... i mean, they're not going hold a gun to the head of el chapo, but there is something to be said for the using publication as a tool to force government action. If you reveal actionable intelligence, the government will use it against the cartels. That's a physical threat, if one step removed. o Anonymous' power base is the ability to exploit online media o Anonymous hackers do not have to be in Mexico to lash out at cartels While not certain, there is a potential for Anonymous to pose a threat, if it had access to certain types of information: -The threat is in the information they can expose that may be of use to any cartel enemies. That could be to the government or other cartels or even local citizens (the last one may be a stretch, but i could imagine someone discrediting cartel members in the eyes of the public). o It is unknown if Anonymous's claims tocut possess identifiable information on cartel members o It is unknown what information Anonymous could acquire on cartels [cut this part here, and make the point at the end of this section/paragraph] o Bank accounts, any online transactions or communications, identifiable information on cartels members have to be considered in the realm of possibilities for Anonymous o Anonymous has demonstrated it's ability to reveal illicit online activity (child pornography rings) and the cartels are known to conduct significant logistics and business online. We don't know how much, but we do know they will have some points of operational vulnerability -They claim to have information on those that collude with cartels (use the stuff you have above]. Releasing such information could hurt cartels' support networks, but most of these people are also easily replaceable. -But we don't know what information Anonymous' adherents have access to, and doubt they have such information that provides any sort of existential threat to the cartels as a whole or their networks. Most Anonymous hackers are likely far removed from the ultra-violent world of drug trafficking in Mexico, but it's quite possible that some of its members in this campaign are in Mexico and opposed to the violence [or something like that. my limited understanding is there are still activist crusader-types in Mexico, yeah? it seems very possible those with a bit of time or computer skills could have joined up with anonymous] . As a result, their understanding of cartel activities may be limited. Anonymous members in other countries may act with confidence when sitting in front of a computer, but this may blind them to any possible retribution. They may not even know the impact of any online assault of cartels. [the part below and above is written rather normatively. We need to take that out. just state the facts] o Revealing information on taxi drivers and journalists will cost lives. Anonymous may not understand some of these individuals are forced to collude with cartels. Taxi drivers are often victims of extortion or coerced to act as halcones. Revealing the identity of these individuals will not have a significant impact on cartel operations. Politicans have been accused of working with cartels (Guerrero & Veracruz' governor) before, however there has yet to be any consequences from this. by "no consequences" what exactly do you mean? They can be fired, arrested or murdered, and that happens all the time. o Anonymous hackers may not understand the extent cartels are willing to go protect their operations. o Any hackers in Mexico are at risk. o Cartels have reached out to the computer science community before, coercing computer science majors into working for them. o This provides the cartels with the possibility of discovering hackers within Mexico. need to mention that if Anonymous goes the route of simply publishing tactical details of cartel activities, they'll be in the same camp as the bloggers [yes, i think it needs to be clear that their damage will be similar to what bloggers or wikileaks can do--limited. But maybe more a danger to themselves, since they are no longer challenging governments, but criminal organizations] On 10/17/11 10:19 AM, Marc Lanthemann wrote: Oh man we are threading new ground here - I like the idea but there are several issues to address and fix here. These are the bullets of my main analytical concern with the discussion: o we don't know who got kidnapped or why. that's fine but we can't gloss over that fact o "hackers" is a blanket term - there's a difference between stealing bank records from government computers and overloading www.loszetas.com main page. o There's no thought out process of what sort of information could anon have on the cartels. What kind of info is kept online and accessible to potential attacks? You seem to be talking about identities, whose? If anything it's dirty cops, politicians and businessmen who need to worry about what anon is going to be saying. Think about why the bloggers and media were killed in previous instances. Was it because they revealed operational details, because they acted as informants, because they exposed links with officials or because they somehow sullied the cartel's reputation? In short, what kind of information is damaging to the cartels themselves? o Once you identify this info - think about if anon can realistically access it and disseminate it so it causes a measure of damage. Anon doesn't have any intelligence capacity except for the technical ability by a very small number of its members to infiltrate certain networks and databases and steal information. Now what kind of information would a cartel keep on a network that is connected to the internet (aka no intranet)? Where else could information be found? Government databases? Once we know what kind of information is accessible, we can also know more about the consequences of dissemination. o What's the IT capacity of a cartel? Sufficient to trace back attacks? If it's not, there risks to be a lot of killings done by people who may not understand the difference between an anon hacker and a blogger. On 10/17/11 9:47 AM, Colby Martin wrote: wanted to forward Karen's thoughts to analyst -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Re: [CT] DISCUSSION - Anonymous vs Cartels Date: Mon, 17 Oct 2011 09:28:18 -0500 From: Karen Hooper Reply-To: CT AOR To: CT AOR you've got some of the issues here, but this is going to need a lot more work You need to lay out: a) What exactly is going on with Anonymous, your trigger section is unclear b) what our assessment of the online cartel presence is, and therefore their vulnerabilities and capabilities c) How capable is Anonymous of breaching high security anything d) how far the cartels would be willing to travel to kill anyone who breaches their systems or exposes their connections I also just want to point out that we have reasonable reliable insight that Sinaloa at the very least has some significant levels of sophistication in their online presence, to include the use of cyber currencies and significant IT capacity. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't also conduct business online, in a protected fashion. Karen Hooper Latin America Analyst o: 512.744.4300 ext. 4103 c: 512.750.7234 STRATFOR www.stratfor.com On 10/17/11 8:46 AM, Renato Whitaker wrote: On 10/17/11 8:25 AM, Tristan Reed wrote: Link: themeData Trigger Recently, Mexican cartels have faced a new enemy, hackers. Anonymous, a well-publicized hacker group famous for...?, lashed out at drug cartels via the Internet with a statements denouncing Mexico's criminal cartels, including a video released depicting...? a person talking? a voice? words on a screen? exactly when?. With the most recent video release, Anonymous makes bold threats towards the criminal cartels. Threats such as releasing identities of Mexican? American? taxi drivers, police, politicians, and journalists who collude with criminal cartels. The hacker group demanded Los Zetas release a fellow kidnapped member otherwise face consequences. The potential of conflict between Mexico's criminal cartels and hackers, presents an unprecedented war front for the cartels. The vastly different operations of Anonymous and Los Zetas leave a conflict both Anonymous and the cartels have little experience in handling. i believe that Anonymous has no experience with the cartels. I do not believe for a second that the cartels have no experience with hackers. In the Anonymous' video, this coming November 5th was mentioned as a day cartels could expect Anonymous' reaction if their demands of releasing a kidnapped member this should be mentioned right up front. Cartels have a member, Anonymous is threatening to hit back. Provide enough details so we understand who this guy is and why/how he was abducted. are not met. If Anonymous' claims of possessing revealing information on cartel members and operations are true, cartels will likely respond with violence against individuals revealed as opposing cartel members huh? you mean Anonymous members?. It also is likely that public disclosure of GOM officials who collude with DTOs will force the GOM to take action, giving the Anonymous threat complexity i don't understand what this means. You mean the GOM will threaten Anonymous?. How effectively any cartel will be able to retaliate against Anonymous remains unanswered . However, cartels will continue their threats against any individual using online media WC.... you mean tools? or weapons? We're not talking about bloggers here. against the cartels. The Battle Space Anonymous's and the cartels activities exist in two separate realities from each other. Anonymous operates solely in sphere of the computer networks. Anonymous does not experience geographical boundaries. All personalities within Anonymous, exist solely in cyber space. (That is not entirely true. They are physical people tho live in the real world. They have names and addresses - although most of them are likely outside of MX.) Anonymous' power base consists of their technical capabilities in hacking. Any information connected to the Internet is vulnerable to exploits by hackers. (Identifying the pc's of individual cartel members in the midst of Mexico's population could be quite difficult. Remember that most of what Anonymous has done are DDOS attacks. Sucks if you are Mastercard or a big company with a website that brings in revenue, but it does not really matter if you don't run operations on the web. Los Z don't make much money via e-commerce. They are also far less dependent on the web than the jihadists.) Anonymous is known for its hacking endevours, but it's power base consists of the perceived anonymity that its members believe themselves to have, real or otherwise, by operating through the internet. This gives an opening for people disgruntled by anything and everything to practice general dickery. As the popular meme goes, anonymity + audience = troll. Only a fraction of the large web of people who identify themselves as "anonymous" have any sort of serious IT capability. The largest threat towards a hacker's existence so far has been from targeted arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. The criminal cartels in Mexico operate on the streets in US and Mexican cities. They are run as a business, always looking to maximize profits and expand. But they are bricks and mortar commerce. Yes..... but they use the internet to launder money and issue commands. We know that Sinaloa does that from insight. There is no reason to assume that Los Zetas don't have a similar capacity. Their power base is built by large amounts of revenue and escalating brutal violence. Cartels like Los Zetas, are experienced in facing different types of threats. Cartels are always suffering at the hands of cartel on cartel violence. While battling each other, cartels still face arrests by Law Enforcement Agencies. As cartels wish to avoid any hindrance in the flow of drugs and money, cartels have targeted media outlets. Murdering journalists and online bloggers in order to cover details of their operations. ok... but that's kind of a red herrng for this discussion. You need to focus on the possible vulnerabilities of the cartels. Don't just assume they have no cyber presence. Anonymous' Weapons Whatever impact will be felt due to Anonymous' actions against criminal cartels has yet to be seen. Anonymous' only ability to combat cartels lay in information operations, mainly disseminating sensitive information on cartels and propagating anti-cartel statements via social media and defaced websites in Mexico you mean so far and that we know of?. As Anonymous admitted in their video to cartels, they cannot fight with guns. The significance of a targeted information operations campaign by technically elite individuals can not be overlooked should not be underestimated. Cartels view main stream media outlets and social media blogs as such a threat to their operations, that they have continued to target journalists and bloggers. Last month, a message signed by Los Zetas was placed with a dead female body more relevantly, on the body of a blogger. The message threatened any users who denounce cartels on blogging websites. getting repetitive here, and it's not really addressing the subheading As stated earlier, any information connected to the internet risks disclosure by Anonymous. There is ample reason to suggest Anonymous is capable of possessing information they threaten to release. By releasing identities of individuals cooperating with Mexican cartels, Anonymous threatens the life of those individuals. Anonymous's ability to disseminate sensitive information is limited by what is available via the Internet. Government computers connected to the Internet should always be considered a possibility of an attack. However, as with the compartmentalized nature of the US governments computer networks, information available to Mexico's intelligence collection may not be easy to acquire. what are you trying to say here? This isn't clear at all Cartel's Defense A counter response to the video? by the cartels has yet to see fruition. However, Anonymous' claims of a kidnapped member by Los Zetas suggest Los Zetas have begun addressing the threat posed by hackers so... how has there not been a counter response? also this undermines your statements above about how Anonymous is soley internet based, and underlines the vulnerabilities of associated members. How did they find teh Anonymous member? The answer to that could very well give you some indication to the technical ability of the cartels . As Anonymous exists in abstract reality of the world wide web , the cartels will face a number of challenges which rarely are posed for them Again, how do you know? The USG has whole agencies dedicated to fucking shit up in cyberspace. You can assume (and we have good intel indicating that) they are working on disrupting the cartels.. Hackers threatening cartels, can operate in any region of the world. Personal information including locations is only available if a hacker chooses to divulge it or if the subject of the attack is savvy enough to figure it out. Hackers don't only work for Anonymous. Cartels are only capable of dealing with their online enemy, if they can physically reach out to them. Or start employing hackers of their own under their payroll? Stranger things have happened, Why not a Zetas 2.0? Cartels have been known to coerce the services of Mexican citizens with a technical background. Recruiting the help of computer science majors through personal threats has been reported in the past where? What cartels? reported where?. Since cartels operate in the world of urban violence and drug trafficking, they will likely need the assistance of technical experts to help combat any threat by computer hackers. While identifying bloggers inside of Mexico has been demonstrated, it is unlikely cartels are capable of identifying any hackers operating outside of Mexico. Even law enforcement agencies such as the FBi, with far more technical experience and resources than cartels, struggle to find hackers through investigations. A) How do you know they are not in Mexico? (Who was the guy they kidnapped???) B) I'm goign to assume that not all hackers are equally difficult to track down In order to compete with an online foe, cartels will likely continue counter tactics they are most familiar with, brute force. Cartels are still capable of their HUMINT operations within Mexico "still"? why would we assume they wouldn't be?. Individuals with alleged connections to hacker communities will likely be targeted and interrogated by cartel members. Narco banners and public display of violence will likely continue to be used to scare online media into submission i'm not really seeing the online media-international hacking group connection here. The cruel manners in which cartels inflict harm, is something computer hackers have unlikely encountered before in their life. Whether the fear of cartel violence softens the confidence of Anonymous will remain to be seen until cartels are able to seek out and capture members of the hacker group.. Or the Narcos could call the collective bluff and simply go on and shrug off any inconvenience that Anon can inflict. -- Marc Lanthemann Watch Officer STRATFOR [phone] www.stratfor.com -- Sean Noonan Tactical Analyst Office: [phone] Mobile: [phone] Strategic Forecasting, Inc. www.stratfor.com