INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH
Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737 748
Published online 14 February 2011 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com). DOI: 10.1002/er.1829
Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey
Melih Soner Celiktas1, ,y and Gunnur Kocar2
1
EBILTEM, Ege University Science and Technology Research Center, Izmir, Turkey
2
Solar Energy Institute of Ege University, Izmir, Turkey
SUMMARY
The Turkish wind energy industry is one of the most competitive and fastest growing industries in the energy
sector. Industrial energy demands, Kyoto agreement and carbon trade are shown as probable causes. Currently,
Turkey has a total installed capacity of about 48.5 GW for electricity from all energy sources. High energy prices
and unstable suppliers have stimulated Turkey s growing interest in wind business and wind power. This paper
analyzes Turkey s wind energy future perspective and power generation strategy with a view to explaining Delphi
approach to wind energy development. In this study, the two-round Delphi survey was conducted by experts to
determine and measure the expectations of the sector representatives through online surveys where a total of
70 experts responded from 24 different locations. The majority of the Delphi survey respondents were from
23 different universities (60%), electricity generation industries (21%), two different governmental organizations
(11%), nongovernmental organizations (6%) and other institutions (2%). The article discusses not only the expert
sights on wind energy technology but also all bibliometrical approaches. The results showed that Turkey s wind
power installed capacity is expected to exceed 40 GW by the end of the 2020 s and in the middle of the 2030 s, and
Turkey would be the European leading country in the field of electricity generation from the wind. Copyright r
2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
KEY WORDS
wind energy; technology foresight; market penetration; Delphi survey; lead markets
Correspondence
*Melih Soner Celiktas, EBILTEM, Ege University Science and Technology Research Center, Izmir, Turkey.
y
E-mail: [e-mail]
Received 20 January 2010; Revised 11 January 2011; Accepted 11 January 2011
1. INTRODUCTION during the 4th European and African Conference on
Wind Engineering.
In a short time span, wind energy is welcomed by the According to World Wind Energy Association
society, industry and politics as a clean, practical, (WWEA), world total installed capacity expected to be
economical and environmental-friendly alternative. approximately 160 GW for 2009 and 200 GW for 2010.
After the 1973 oil crisis, the renewable energy sources WWEA reported that the top ranked five countries of
started to appear in the agenda and hence the wind the wind power market were USA, China, Germany,
energy gained significant interest. As a result, wind Spain and India and their installed capacities of
energy has recently been applied in various industries, wind power were respectively 35 159 MW (22.1%),
and it started to compete with other energy resources [1]. 26 010 MW (16.3%), 25 777 MW (16.2%), 19 149 MW
There is a considerable progress in the wind power (12.0%), 10 925 MW (6.9%) and rest of the world
industry over the last decade in the world. The wind installed capacity was 42 193 MW (26.3%). According
energy technology has established a sound technical to the same report, the highest growth rates of the year
feasibility and is therefore one of the promising 2009 with more than 100% could be found in Mexico
renewable energy sources. Wind power technology is which quadrupled its installed capacity, once again
experiencing a major growth especially in United in Turkey (132%) which had the highest rate in the
States, Europe and with significant growth in deve- previous year, in China (113%) as well as in Morocco
loping countries such as China and India. Besides the (104%) [10].
industrial application success, many researchers [2 8] Turkey is a fast growing and very interesting energy
have made significant contributions to the wind energy market with a strong dependency on external energy
technology. Moreover, past, present and future develop- supplies, which is forcing Turkey to focus on alternative
ment of wind energy is very well summarized by [9] forms of energy. Among other renewable resources,
Copyright r 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 737
M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey
wind has been the most popular and most accessible was structured and functionally designed as a web-based,
power source in the last four years. In 2005, the total flexible, scalable, analogical and analyzable format,
installed capacity in Turkey was 20.1 MW generated by which had a user-friendly interface. It was pre-tested by
34 turbines. With the introduction of the first Law on some experts from Ege University. Subsequent to con-
Renewable Energy Resources in 2005 by the Turkish siderable refinements made to the survey tool, parti-
Parliament, the market more than doubled in 2006 by cularly to the navigational structures, the survey was
reaching 50 MW, then tripled to 147 MW by the end of validated.
2007 [11]. Currently, licensed wind power plant has Some definitions used in structuring the Delphi
reached 727.45 MW at the end of the 2009 [12] and is questionnaire and calculation methodologies were
expected to reach 1500 MW by the end of 2010. given in our previous study [16].
Recent years have seen the start of a wind energy The respondents were asked to assess which of the
boom in Turkey. Following a call for tender at the end following actions could promote an early occurrence
of 2007, a record number of 751 projects were received of the statement: Increase in basic R&D, Increase in
by the Electricity Market Regulatory Authority applied R&D, A well-qualified teaching workforce,
(EMRA) in one day, totaling 78 GW. Since then, Fiscal measures (supports and incentives), Increase in
EMRA has issued about 5000 MW worth of licenses R&D supports and R&D infrastructure, International-
for wind energy generation [13]. ization of R&D studies, Increase in University
The aim of this study was to identify the most im- Industry Government grid cooperation, Encourage
portant wind technology and research priorities likely multidisciplinary studies, Legal arrangements (Adjust
to be demanded by the Turkish energy industry and relevant regulations, standards etc.), Increase social
contribute to the achievement of strategic goals in the awareness (Public acceptance) and Other.
wind energy sub sectors vital for the national wealth Finally, all the outcomes of the Delphi survey were
creation, environmental effect and improvement of evaluated using Access, Microsoft Excel and macros
the quality and security of life. On the other hand, the software tools.
intention of the study was to describe trends in the
development of wind energy technology and to bring
out research and development needs in order to reach
the priorities identified in the wind energy technology. 3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
This paper analyzes Turkey s wind energy future
perspective and power generation strategy with a view
2. METHODOLOGY to explaining Delphi approach to wind energy develop-
ment. In this study, the two round Delphi survey was
In previous studies, two different methods are used for a conducted to experts to determine and measure the
multitude of purposes, including: Bibliometric analysis expectations of the sector representatives through online
[14] and the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and surveys. The list of experts was composed of represen-
Threats (SWOT) analysis [15] to provide raw data to tatives from industry, science and technology institutes,
the two-round Delphi survey to be processed further. academia and governmental authorities as well as
Bibliometric analysis was conducted to find out the non-governmental organizations corresponding to all
development trends of the scientific studies in the field of Turkish renewable Energy experts. Subsequently, first
renewable energies in Turkey. In the SWOT analysis, and second round of Delphi study was carried out by
different information gathering strategies have been using online survey, among experts representing differ-
applied for the analysis of Turkish wind energy ent entities of the energy sector. Totally, 70 experts from
technology, market and policies. Delphi statements 24 different locations participated in the whole Delphi
were developed by using the results obtained from the questionnaire process, which shaped out the future of
bibliometric and SWOT analyses. The Survey was thus wind energies in Turkey. The majority of the Delphi
able to give a comprehensive view of the future of wind survey respondents were from 23 different universities
energy technology from basic research to social impact (60%), electricity generation sectors (21%), two differ-
and from subjective and normative points of view to ent governmental organizations (11%), nongovern-
objective and extrapolative perspectives. mental organizations (6%) and other institutions (2%).
The Delphi survey was composed of two sections, The respondents were classified into five different age
where the first section was designed to cover partici- groups (Figure 1) and the gender distribution was
pants demographic properties and the second section 94.2% male and 5.8% female. A two-round Delphi
was dedicated to questioning of 19 Delphi statements. research study was undertaken to determine and
The foresight period was ascertained as 40 years from measure the expectations of the technology representa-
today to 2050. tives regarding foresight of wind energies.
The web-based questionnaire was developed and The time of occurrence was evaluated on the data
designed using PHP and MySQL databases. The survey from the first and second round of the Delphi results,
738 Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737 748 r 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
DOI: 10.1002/er
Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar
which is presented in Figure 2. The Delphi statements the responses. The distribution gets narrower from the
and their time of occurrence were assessed by all parti- first to the second round, as intended with the Delphi
cipants. The number of the respondents and the dis- method, thus signifying a higher reliability of the
tribution (%) were displayed on the left side of the results. The shares of respondents evaluating the corres-
figure. The answers obtained in the second round and ponding statement to be totally unlikely and classified it
experts for all those participants claiming to be either to happen never were displayed on the far right-hand
experts, knowledgeable or at least familiar with the side of Figure 2.
topic were displayed on the right-hand side of the Majority of the respondents believed that Turkey s
figure. The bars indicate the statistical distribution of wind power installed capacity has been expected to
Figure 1. Age classification of the Delphi survey participants.
Figure 2. The Delphi statements and their time of occurrence.
Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737 748 r 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 739
DOI: 10.1002/er
M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey
exceed 40 GW by around 2030 while some respondents 2005. So the greatest increase is expected to be in the
thought that this statement will never succeed. wind energy production. This rate reached 20% in
Turkey s primary energy sources include hard coal, Denmark, 6% in Germany for the year 2003 [23].
lignite, asphaltite, bituminuous schist, hydropower, oil, According to Delphi survey results, 5% of Turkish
natural gas, nuclear, geothermal, solar, wood, animal electricity demand has been expected to be supplied by
and plant wastes. But, the level of primary energy the wind power by 2020. Experts seem more optimistic
production in Turkey is very low. Due to the very than the other participants on the times of occurrence
limited indigenous energy resources, Turkey has to for this statement. On the other hand, Turkey s annual
import nearly 73% of the energy from abroad to meet theoretically available potential for wind power is cal-
the needs [17,18]. In other words, approximately three culated to be more than 80 000 MW, about 10 000 MW
fourth of the primary energy production of Turkey is of which is also economically feasible. Turkey has the
heavily dependent on imports. highest share with 166 TW per year in technical wind
Considering the development of wind energy gen- energy potential among European countries. However,
eration in Turkey, wind electricity was first obtained in total, Turkey is slightly above the world average in
from a wind turbine with a nominal 55 kW power built terms of share of renewables in total primary energy
in Cesme Altin Yunus Facilities in 1986 [19]. However, supply [21]. As of today, Turkey has almost 725 MW of
the utilization of wind energy in Turkey has increased wind installed capacity, and by the end of 2010 it is
since 1998 when the first wind power plant with a total projected to reach 1500 MW around 3.5% of the
capacity of 1.5 MW was installed. Up to date, Turkey country s total energy capacity. In 2007, the Turkish
has about 724.15 MW wind power installed capacity in Electricity Survey and Development Administration
operation and about 2626.65 MW under construction. (EIE) developed the Turkish Wind Atlas, which served
Also, license applications for a total capacity of as a big eye-opener to all types of investors. The Market
77 871.4 MW have been submitted to EMRA by pri- Authority EMRA has licensed around 90 projects con-
vate developers as of November 2007 [20,21]. The stituting 3350 MW of capacity. There have been almost
current production status of wind energy projects 78 000 MW of license applications. Currently, the feed-in
in Turkey is approximately 3350 MW. The detailed tariff for renewables is limited to 5.5 ch kWh 1. The
information about projects has been presented in new proposed amendment to the law will offer better
Table I. price (could be 8 ch kWh 1) for on land wind power
Wind Energy The Facts (WindFacts) is a European applications [24,25].
project financed by the Intelligent Energy Europe As in many developing and reforming countries,
programme of the Executive Agency for Competitive- Turkey s electricity sector has been and continues to be
ness and Innovation that runs from November 2007 to dominated by state-owned enterprises. Until recently,
October 2009. The  Wind Energy The Facts publica- most governments thought that electricity provision
tion is widely considered to be the most important wind was too economically and strategically important to be
energy reference in the world. It presents a detailed left to the machinations of private enterprise and free
overview of the wind energy sector, with the most up-to- markets. Even today, after almost two decades of at-
date and in-depth information on the essential issues tempts at reforming the sector, state ownership does
concerning wind power today. According to Windfacts, not fall below 60% in any part of the electricity value
The 40 000 MW goal from the European Commission s chain [26]. In spite of this negative attitude, Turkey s
White Paper formed EWEA s target in 1997, but three electricity market is becoming more attractive for
years later, due to the strong developments in the investors after the liberalization steps such as some regu-
German, Spanish and Danish markets for wind tur- lations on the electricity market and given incentives.
bines, EWEA increased its target by 50% to 60 000 MW According to the respondents there is a need to
by 2010 and 150 000 MW by 2020. In 2003, EWEA standardized manufacturing and measurement methods
once again increased its target, this time by 25% to and tools. This standardization process could be com-
75 000 MW by 2010 and 180 000 MW by 2020. Due to pleted by 2020s. Wind energy economy will require a
the expansion of the EU with 12 new Member States, huge investment in new areas like measurement and
EWEA has now increased its prediction for 2010 to manufacturing standardization. The Delphi second
80 000 MW, while maintaining its 2020 target of round results showed that the equipments fulfilling the
180 000 MW and setting a target of 300 000 MW by international standards are manufactured in Turkey
2030 [22]. approximately in 2022.
The ratio of the electric power produced via usage of According to the majority of experts, the key pro-
renewable resources except hydroelectricity in 2002 is blem in Turkey is the lack of the wind turbine manu-
only2%andintendedtoincrease upto6%until 2030. It facturing facilities. All wind turbine technologies used
is expected that biomass and wind energy will have a in the country are imported from abroad. The Delphi
great effect in this increase. The objective is to increase respondents generally agree that the high efficiency
the windenergy upto929 TWhwitha rate of 3%of the wind turbines will be manufactured in Turkey by
world electricity production in 2030, which was 1% in around 2022. More R&D activities are required to
740 Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737 748 r 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
DOI: 10.1002/er
Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar
Table I. Wind power plant projects in 2009 in Turkey.
Capacity Capacity in
Region of Capacity License period under cons. operation
Company name Location Turkey (MWe) (yil year 1) (Mwe) (Mwe)
ABK A.S. Ayd1
n Aegean 30 49 30
-
ABK A.S.0
zmir Aegean 16 49 16
-
Akhisar Ltd.Sti. Manisa Aegean 43.75 49 43.75 0
-
Aktepe A.S.0
zmir Aegean 16 49 16 0
-
Alize A.S. Manisa Aegean 25.6 45 25.6
-
Alize A.S.0
zmir Aegean 1.5 30 1.5
-
Ayen A.S. Ayd1
n Aegean 31.5 49 31.5
-
Ayen A.S.0
zmir Aegean 30.75 49 30.75
-
Ayen A.S.0
zmir Aegean 24 49 24
-
Baltepe A.S.0
zmir Aegean 18 49 18 0
-
Bergama A.S.0
zmir Aegean 90 46 90
-
Bilgin A.S. Manisa Aegean 90 46 90
-
Cal1
k Ltd. Sti. 0
zmir Aegean 32 25 32
- -
Cal1
k Ltd. Sti. 0
zmir Aegean 40 25 40
- -
Dares A.S. Mu�
la Aegean 28.8 45 0 28.8
-
Deniz Ltd.Sti. Manisa Aegean 10.8 49 10.8
-
Do�
al A.S.0
zmir Aegean 30 49 30
-
Do�
al A.S.0
zmir Aegean 30 49 30
-
Do�
al A.S. Manisa Aegean 34.2 49 34.2
-
Doruk A.S.0
zmir Aegean 30 49 30
-
Egenda A.S.0
zmir Aegean 13.8 49 13.8
-
Egenda A.S.0
zmir Aegean 16 49 16
-
Egenda A.S.0
zmir Aegean 13 49 13
-
Egenda A.S.0
zmir Aegean 10.8 49 10.8
-
Garet A.S.0
zmir Aegean 10 49 10 0
-
Hassas A.S.0
zmir Aegean 15 49 15
-
0
nnores Ltd. Sti. 0
zmir Aegean 42.5 49 42.5
-
Kardemir Ltd.Sti. 0
zmir Aegean 12 49 12
-
Kores A.S.0
zmir Aegean 15 49 15
-
Lodos A.S.0
zmir Aegean 120 49 120
-
Mare A.S.0
zmir Aegean 39.2 20 39.2
-
Maz1
-3 A.S.0
zmir Aegean 22.5 49 22.5
-
Ortan A.S.0
zmir Aegean 16.25 49 16.25
-
Sabas A.S. Ayd1
n Aegean 24 49 24
- -
Soma A.S. Manisa Aegean 140.8 49 106.6 34.2
-
S�ke Ltd.Sti. Usak Aegean 54 49 54
- -
�cgen A.S.0
zmir Aegean 14 22 14 0
- -
�topya A.S.0
zmir Aegean 15 49 15
-
Yap1
san A.S.0
zmir Aegean 49.5 49 49.5
-
Yaylak�y A.S.0
zmir Aegean 15 49 15
-
Total of Aegean Region 1311.25 1051.05 260.2
Baktepe A.S. Amasya Black Sea 39 49 39 0
-
PEM Ltd.Sti. Tokat Black Sea 40.5 49 40.5
-
RSH Ltd.Sti. Corum Black Sea 45 49 45
- -
Total of Black Sea Region 124.5 124.5 0
Aksu A.S. Kayseri Central Anatolia 72 49 72
-
AL-YEL A.S. K1
rsehir Central Anatolia 150 25 150
- -
Can A.S. Bilecik Central Anatolia 39 49 39
-
ES-YEL Ltd. Sti. Konya Central Anatolia 50 25 50
-
Total of Central Anatolia Region 311 311 0
Akenerji A.S. Bal1
kesir Marmara 15 49 15
-
Alenka Ltd. Sti. K1
rklareli Marmara 27 20 27
-
Alenka Ltd. Sti. Tekirda�
Marmara 12 20 12
-
Alenka Ltd. Sti. Band1
rma Marmara 6 20 6
-
Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737 748 r 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 741
DOI: 10.1002/er
M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey
Table I. Continued.
Capacity Capacity in
Region of Capacity License period under cons. operation
Company name Location Turkey (MWe) (yil year 1) (Mwe) (Mwe)
Alenka Ltd. Sti. Tekirda�
Marmara 4.5 20 4.5
-
Alentek Ltd.Sti. Bal1
kesir Marmara 45 49 45
-
Alize A.S. Tekirda�
Marmara 28.8 45 28.8
-
Alize A.S.Canakkale Marmara 20.8 45 20.8
- -
Alize A.S. Bal1
kesir Marmara 16 45 16
-
Alize A.S. Bal1
kesir Marmara 19 45 19
-
Anemon A.S.Canakkale Marmara 30.4 30 30.4
- -
As Makinsan A.S. Bal1
kesir Marmara 24 49 24
-
Ayres Ltd. Sti. Canakkale Marmara 5 25 5
- -
Baki Ltd. Sti. Bal1
kesir Marmara 90 49 90
-
Bal1
kesir Ltd. Sti. Bal1
kesir Marmara 30 20 30
-
Bares A.S. Bal1
kesir Marmara 142.5 49 112.5 30
-
Borasco A.S. Bal1
kesir Marmara 45 45 45
-
Boreas Ltd. Sti. Edirne Marmara 15 30 15
-
Do�
al A.S.Canakkale Marmara 14.9 30 14.9
- -
Enerjisa A.S.Canakkale Marmara 30 49 30
- -
Ert�rk A.S.0
stanbul Marmara 60 49 60
-
Galata Ltd. Sti. Bal1
kesir Marmara 93 49 93
-
Garet A.S.Canakkale Marmara 22.5 49 22.5
- -
Kap1
da�
A.S. Bal1
kesir Marmara 34.85 49 43.85
-
Lodos A.S.0
stanbul Marmara 24 30 24
-
Poyraz A.S. Bal1
kesir Marmara 54.9 49 54.9
-
SUNJ�T A.S.0
stanbul Marmara 1.2 15 1.2
-
Teperes A.S.0
stanbul Marmara 0.85 49 0.85
-
Yalova Ltd.Sti. Yalova Marmara 54 49 54
-
Yap1
san A.S. Bal1
kesir Marmara 30 45 30
-
Total of Marmara Region 996.2 605.25 390.95
Akdeniz A.S. Mersin Mediterranean 34 49 34
-
Aksa A.S. Hatay Mediterranean 30 49 30
-
Alenka Ltd. Sti. Hatay Mediterranean 15 20 15
-
Alenka Ltd. Sti. Hatay Mediterranean 13.5 20 13.5
-
Bakras Ltd. Sti. Hatay Mediterranean 15 49 15
-
Belen A.S. Hatay Mediterranean 30 49 12 18
-
Deniz Ltd.Sti. Hatay Mediterranean 60 49 40 20
-
Ere A.S. Mersin Mediterranean 39 49 39
-
Ezse Ltd.Sti. Hatay Mediterranean 35.1 25 35.1
-
Ezse Ltd.Sti. Hatay Mediterranean 22.5 25 22.5
-
Paren A.S. Hatay Mediterranean 26 45 26
-
Rotor A.S. Osmaniye Mediterranean 60 25 60
-
Rotor A.S. Osmaniye Mediterranean 50 25 50
-
Rotor A.S. Osmaniye Mediterranean 135 30 100 35
-
Total of Marmara Region 565.1 492.1 73
Kahta A.S. Ad1
yaman Sautheast Anatolia 42.75 49 42.75 0
-
Total of Southeast 543.85 470.85 73
Anatolia Region
Total 3350.8 2626.65 724.15
Source: http://www.epdk.org.tr/lisans/elektrik/lisansdatabase/verilentesistipi.asp, retrieved 04.02.2009.
solve problems linked with wind manufacturing. On The generalized use of wind turbines as a source of
the other hand, the regulation on the support for electricity in the future will probably depend more
electricity generated from the wind will be regulated or upon the costs of other electricity generating options
adopted and entered into force. and public reaction to their environmental impacts
742 Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737 748 r 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
DOI: 10.1002/er
Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar
than on further improvement of wind turbine techno- international collaboration, interrelationship and,
logy itself, which is already quite advanced and mature. standards and regulations must be increased at least on
Nevertheless, there are still few technological advance- the world level in order to play a major role in the wind
ments that would further improve the potential of wind energy league by 2040; otherwise the time frame will
power [27]. not be realistic. The recommended actions are a little
Operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for onshore bit different from each other. According to experts
wind energy are generally estimated to be around 1.2 to opinions, installed capacity increase was needed to
1.5 ch kWh 1 of wind power produced over the total renovation of standards and regulations. High effi-
lifetime of a turbine. Spanish data indicates that less ciency wind turbines manufacturing were expected to
than 60% of this amount goes strictly to the O&M of strengthen industry academic government collabora-
the turbine and installations, with the rest equally dis- tions. Other recommended actions for developing the
tributed between labour costs and spare parts. The re- wind energy technology were quite similar with almost
maining 40% is split equally between insurance, land all the statements concerning research and develop-
rental and overheads. The costs range from approxi- ment infrastructure and R&D application. The
mately 7 10 ch kWh 1 at sites with low average wind following statements,  Increase in Basic R&D ,  Created
speeds, to approximately 5 6.5 ch kWh 1 at windy well-qualified labor force ,  Fiscal approaches ,  Inter-
coastal sites, with an average of approximately nationalization of R&D activities ,  Supported inter-
7ch kWh 1 at a wind site with average wind speeds [28]. disciplinary studies were backed by approximately 50%
The Delphi participants indicated that a strong of the respondents and likewise  Increase in social
R&D was needed for both basic and applied wind awareness activities was recommended by 33%.
turbine research to cut costs and acquire know-how. For each Delphi statement, the respondents were
According to the respondents, especially low rpm asked to give an assessment of the impact it would have,
generators should be developed to eliminate gearbox if the statement came true. Assessed was the impact on:
assemblies in turbines. Experts are more optimistic wealth creation, environment, quality of life and security
than other respondents for concerning the statement of supply. Wind energy technology was considered to be
times of occurrence. According to the comments of overall the most beneficial in the four areas. The state-
Eurendel report [29], if the expected time of occurrence ments were ranked according to their impact on these
of a certain technology are a proxy of its likelihood to four impact measures. According to experts opinions,
occur, it means that the probability of receiving the the wind energy technology statements impact rankings
outcomes of the energy R&D investments should be were shown in Table III. The evaluation of the impact
higher than it is currently thought. assessments of the eight Delphi statements was based on
On the other hand, respondents pointed out that the an overall impact index calculation. The overall impact
commercial application of 10 MW class wind power index ranged from 1 for an adverse impact until 4 for a
generation system was expected by around 2025 or highly beneficial impact.
even later as a result of R&D studies. According to the overall impact index, the statement
Depending on last decade developments [28], namely  Turkey s wind power installed capacity has
respondents expected 50% reduction in wind energy been expected to exceed 40 GW had a strong impact in
generation costs per kWh. All these realized develop- the first and second round and the statement  Turkey is
ments were foresighted from 2020 to 2030. Considering at the forefront of the European countries for utilizing
the expectations for cost reduction of wind energy the wind energy had the most significant impact on
generation in Europe, 15 25% for onshore and the wind energy systems. The top three statements
20 30% for off shore wind by around 2020 were were generally rated similar across the four impact
reported [29]. measures. Similarly, the statement  Equipments ful-
Another generated result from the Delphi was filling international standards are manufactured in
that Turkey should be at the forefront of the European Turkey received the minimum impact value as a result
countries for utilizing the wind energy nearby of both the first and second-round Delphi survey.
2038. This, however, was not confirmed by the all The statement  High efficiency wind turbines are
respondents. manufactured by the know-how created through
Actions needed were evaluated on the basis of the national technologies had a strong impact on wealth
Delphi results for all statements (Table II). The four creation. On the other hand, the statement  Turkey is
items with the highest degree of consensus among at the forefront of the European countries for utilizing
the respondents were  Development of R&D infra- the wind energy had a strong impact on rest areas.
structure ,  Increase in Applied R&D and Innovation , Finally, the degree of importance of the statements to
 Fiscal approaches (incentives, tax regulations etc.) Turkey was reflected as a percentage breakdown of res-
and  Strengthened industry academic government pondents who indicated  high,  medium,  low or
collaboration has been pointed out by few respon-  unnecessary . The evaluation of the degree of impor-
dents. According to these results, research efforts, tance of the statements to Turkey of the eight Delphi
R&D infrastructure, innovative and fiscal approaches, statements was based on an importance index calculation.
Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737 748 r 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 743
DOI: 10.1002/er
Table II. Comparison of actions needed to enhance the Delphi statements.
Actions needed (%)
Strengthened
Increase in Created Fiscal Inter- industry
applied R&D well- approaches Development nationalization academic Supported Renovation of Increase in
Increase in and innova- qualified (incentives, tax of R&D of R&D government interdisciplinary Standards and social aware-
Statements basic R&D tion labor force regulations etc.) infrastructure activities collaboration studies regulations ness activities Others
5% Turkish electricity 39.3 46.4 42.9 71.4 53.6 39.3 53.6 32.1 78.6 42.9 71.1
demand has been sup-
plied by the wind power
Low RPM generators 59.1 81.8 36.4 50.0 81.8 59.1 54.5 45.5 36.4 27.3 4.5
have been developed to
eliminate gearbox
assemblies in Turbines
Equipments fulfilling 57.7 53.8 53.8 42.3 73.1 57.7 65.4 53.8 46.2 23.1 7.7
international standards
are manufactured in
Turkey
High efficiency wind tur- 64.5 67.7 67.7 71.0 67.7 58.1 74.2 51.6 61.3 25.8 9.7
bines are manufactured
by the know-how created
through national techno-
logies
10 MW class wind power 50.0 70.0 50.0 63.3 66.7 77.7 77.7 56.7 46.7 26.7 10.0
generation systems have
become commercial
50% reduction in wind 56.3 78.1 46.9 65.6 71.9 65.6 56.3 50.0 56.3 28.1 12.5
energy generation costs
per kWh
Turkey s wind power 43.2 64.9 43.2 78.4 62.2 45.9 64.9 45.9 78.4 43.2 13.5
installed capacity has
been expected to exceed
40 GW
Turkey is at the forefront 44.1 67.6 70.6 67.6 64.7 55.9 64.7 47.1 67.6 50.0 20.6
of the European coun-
tries for utilizing the wind
energy
744
M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar
Int. J. Energy Res. 2012;
36
:737 748 r 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey
DOI: 10.1002/er
Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar
Table III. Impact ranking of wind energy technology statements.
Impacts
Wealth Environment Quality of Security of Overall
Statements Round creation impact life supply impact
Turkey is at the forefront of the European 1 1.42 1.57 1.32 1.3 2.81
countries for utilizing the wind energy 2 1.51 1.62 1.35 1.35 2.92
E 1.71 1.82 1.62 1.56 3.36
Turkey s wind power installed capacity 1 1.41 1.64 1.34 1.34 2.88
has been expected to exceed 40 GW 2 1.48 1.66 1.39 1.41 2.98
E 1.62 1.81 1.57 1.54 3.28
50% reduction of wind energy generation 1 1.57 1.4 1.41 1.32 2.86
costs per kWh 2 1.59 1.39 1.42 1.32 2.87
E 1.72 1.5 1.56 1.5 3.15
High efficiency wind turbines are manufactured 1 1.54 1.49 1.22 1.12 2.7
by the know-how created through national technologies 2 1.57 1.47 1.21 1.1 2.7
E 1.77 1.61 1.39 1.35 3.08
5% Turkish Electricity demand has been supplied 1 1.36 1.48 1.3 1.3 2.72
by the wind power 2 1.39 1.54 1.31 1.31 2.79
E 1.57 1.68 1.32 1.32 2.96
10 MW class wind power generation systems 1 1.16 1.26 1 1.03 2.23
have become commercial 2 1.21 1.27 1.03 1.03 2.28
E 1.37 1.43 1.2 1.17 2.59
Low RPM generators have been developed to 1 0.92 0.97 0.8 0.85 1.78
eliminate gearbox assemblies in Turbines 2 1.02 1.07 0.91 0.88 1.95
E 1.27 1.36 1.18 1.09 2.46
Equipments fulfilling international standards are 1 1.01 0.94 0.78 0.78 1.77
manufactured in Turkey 2 0.98 0.92 0.76 0.73 1.71
E 1.08 0.88 0.85 0.69 1.77
The overall importance index ranged from 0 for less academicians, policy makers, politicians, industrialists
importance to 1 for the most important. According to and representatives of civil society organizations were
experts opinions, the degree of importance of the Delphi represented.
statements to Turkey was shown in Table IV. According In this paper, we looked for the most important wind
to the degree of importance index, the top statement technology and research priorities likely to be de-
was  High efficiency wind turbines are manufactured manded by the Turkish energy industry. In this context,
by the know-how created through national technologies we investigated Turkey s wind future and we believe
calculated as 0.94. On the other hand, the statement that this foresight exercise may have contributed to the
at the bottom of the list was  Equipments fulfilling policy objective of fostering the diversity of technolo-
international standards are manufactured in Turkey gical options especially through the development of al-
calculated as 0.70. In other words, there are little differ- ternative wind technology roadmaps that supported
ences between the statements ranked at the top and participants in their R&D activities.
bottom of the list. According to this study, the mean value of the time
of occurrence for most of the statements lies between
2015 and 2040. This corresponds well with the in-
tended 25 years time horizon of this study. The degree
4. CONCLUSION of agreement on the time of occurrence differs strongly
from statement to statement. For example,
This study gives a preliminary overview on the results
of the Delphi survey for future wind technology in The statements with highest degree of consensus
Turkey using expert opinions elicited from the face-to- among the respondents on the time of occurrence
face meetings and a web-based survey developed are  Equipments fulfilling international standards
and designed using PHP and MySQL databases in are manufactured in Turkey with 65% of the
order to gather information for the two-round Delphi respondents and  5% of Turkish Electricity
method. The participants chosen for the survey played demand has been supplied by the wind power
key roles in the sector and the outcome was very with 57% of respondents expecting a time of
fruitful due to the fact that all the participants such as occurrence between 2010 and 2020.
Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737 748 r 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 745
DOI: 10.1002/er
M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey
Table IV. The degree of importance of the Delphi statements to Turkey.
The degree of importance to Turkey
Statements Round High (%) Medium (%) Low (%) Unnecessary (%) Index
High efficiency wind turbines are manufactured 1 51 14 3 1 0.85
by the know-how created through national technologies 2 47 12 3 1 0.85
E 87 13 0 0 0.94
50% reduction of wind energy generation 1 53 13 2 0 0.88
costs per kWh 2 47 12 2 0 0.88
E 81 13 3 0 0.91
Turkey is at the forefront of the European countries 1 44 14 6 5 0.76
for utilizing the wind energy 2 44 12 3 4 0.80
E 82 15 3 0 0.90
5% Turkish Electricity demand has been supplied 1 45 17 3 2 0.81
by the wind power 2 41 16 2 2 0.81
E 79 18 4 0 0.89
Turkey s wind power installed capacity has been 1 53 14 2 1 0.86
expected to exceed 40 GW 2 51 10 2 1 0.88
E 78 16 3 3 0.87
Low RPM generators have been developed to 1 26 30 5 5 0.64
eliminate gearbox assemblies in Turbines 2 26 27 4 3 0.68
E 64 32 5 0 0.81
10 MW class wind power generation systems have 1 31 28 5 5 0.67
become commercial 2 31 23 4 5 0.69
E 57 30 3 10 0.73
Equipments fulfilling international standards are 1 28 28 8 5 0.64
manufactured in Turkey 2 28 23 7 5 0.65
E 46 42 12 0 0.70
Least consensus is found in statements  Turkey quality of life and security of supply. According to
is at the forefront of the European countries impact values, the top statement is  Turkey is at the
for utilizing the wind energy with 15.8% forefront of the European countries for utilizing the
Never responded,  Turkey s wind power installed wind energy with an average effect index score of
capacity has been expected to exceed 40 GW with 3.36. On the other hand, the bottom statement is
14.8% Never responded as well as  High efficiency  Equipments fulfilling international standards are
wind turbines are manufactured by the know- manufactured in Turkey with an average effect index
how created through national technologies with score of 1.77.
13.2% Never responded. Actions needed were evaluated on the basis of the
A convergence of the answers can be observed Delphi results for all statements. The two items
over the two rounds. This illustrates a greater with the highest degree of consensus among the res-
degree of consensus among the respondents, pondents were  Development of R&D infrastructure
which is a desirable and typical phenomenon of and  Fiscal measures items, whereas,  Increase in
the Delphi technique. social awareness activities has been pointed out by
few respondents. On the other hand, the statement
with the highest degree of consensus among the
The other most important findings obtained from
respondents on the necessity of basic research was
the Delphi survey can be summarized as follows:
 High efficiency wind turbines are manufactured by
Turkey s wind power installed capacity will reach
the know-how created through national technologies
40 000 MW in about 2030.
with 64.5%, whereby the statement  5% Turkish
Turkey could be at the forefront of the European
Electricity demand has been supplied by the wind
countries for utilizing the wind energy through 2040.
power with 39.3% had very few respondents pointing
Wind energy technology is foresighted to have
towards an increase in Basic research as a required
large socio-economic impacts in the future.
action for realization.
All participants believed in the power of strengthened
The technological statements are ranked according and increased development of R&D infrastructure and
to their impact on these four impact measures. applications. As Turkey has a substantial technically and
Assessed was the impact on wealth creation, environment, economically exploitable wind resource, it is obvious
746 Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737 748 r 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
DOI: 10.1002/er
Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar
that the advancements in the mentioned wind technol- Available from: http://www.epdk.gov.tr/lisans/
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15 December 2009).
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
17 December 2009).
14. Celiktas MS, Sevgili T, Kocar G. A snapshot of
This project was supported by the Research Fund of
Ege University (07GEE001). We acknowledge all
renewable energy research in Turkey. Renewable
participants involved in the Delphi survey.
Energy 2009; 34(6):1479 1486.
15. Celiktas MS, Kocar G. A quadratic helix approach
to evaluate the Turkish renewable energies. Energy
Policy 2009; 37(11):4959 4965.
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