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The falling death ratę observed in the EU5 shows that R_t is currently less than 1.0. Academic HU studies suggest that lockdowns are the only intervention to achieve this so far

| As of 4^th May

•    Ali members of the EU5 have observed a consistent downward trend in the number of deaths associated with COVID-19 in the weeks following lockdown. Although deaths are a lagging indicator, this reduction - given the absence of any new and highly effective medical treatment - indicates that the current reproduction ratę of the virus, R„ is below 1.0 under lockdown conditions

•    The team from Imperial College London - which is informing U.K. Government policy - undertook an analysis across 11 European countries to estimate how R. was affected by different government interventions, which they published on 30^ March (“Report 13”)

•    This study concluded that lockdown was having a significant effect on the transmission of the virus - estimated at c.70% when updated to use the latest data - while other interventions have had smaller impacts

Impact of government interventions on the reproduction ratę*

lntervention	Estimated average reduction in reproductive ratę	95% confidence interval
Lockdown	69%	79%-58%
School closure	30%	51 %-6%
Public events	6%	19%-0%
Social distancing	6%	18%-0%
Self isolation for the unwell	3%	11 %-0%

Estimated U.K. reproduction ratę from first case to present

Updating this analysis to incorporate data until 4^,h May confirms that R. has been under 1.0 for the lockdown period, and that the most substantial reductions to R, appear to have been achieved by lockdown

However, this method can only test the impact of government interventions that are already in place. The impact of less stringent lockdown measures are therefore much harder to estimate. as the observable data for this period is only just starting to appear

2:

A V

I

lntervenlions

Compłfito lockdcwn Public cvcnts banned O School clos-ute A Self isolation V Sodal disiancing

50%

95%

&

Nole:    ‘Using data to 04 K4ay 2020

Source: Estimating the number of tnfecbons and the impact of non-pharmaceutical inten/entions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries - Report 13 from the Imperial College COVID-19 Respoose Team. 30 March 2020: L E K. analysis (based on the Imperial College team's source codę)

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