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In this edition of the Disease Progression Monitor, we consider what testing tells us about the impact of COVID-19 and how testing will support vaccine programmes and contact tracing

•    The EU5 nations are continuing to cautiously ease lockdown restrictions, as they seek to return to normal levels of social and economic activity, while keeping the virus under control

•    During this phase, testing is of critical importance to maintain control. Following uneven applications of testing at the start of the outbreak, EU5 nations have now adopted a morę systematic and targeted approach to testing as the number of cases has fallen and absorbed less testing capacity

Questions considered in this edition

Medical

interventions

Tests and treatments to stop the spread and cure the sick

Virus

epidemiology

1.

2.

3.

What forms of testing are now approved and how are they used?

How can vaccines prove efficacy when infections are Iow?

How have levels of infection varied between different population groups?

How SARS-CoV-2 spreads and who it harms most

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V

^ Public	A	4.
mi policies
Restrictions and		5.
supplementary measures
to control the virus	J

Have governments retained control of the virus as lockdown has eased?

What approaches have different countries adopted to enable contact tracing?

• This has enabled testing to play a far morę proactive role in the control of the virus, particularly in Italy, Spain, France and the U.K., where infection volumes have been very high

• So far, there are limited signs that the virus has returned to rapid growth during this phase, with estimated reproduction rates higher but remaining below 1.0. Testing is essential to enable lockdown easing to continue while effective treatments are developed

3 O 2020 L E K. Consulting LLC