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SIJMMAR Y AND CONCTJISTONS

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(3)    Tnflat. łon has hecom* the Rain concern of nur govern*ents. The Influence and leadershlp of t.he Mlnlstrles of Treasury In e a c h of t.he o o u n t r 1 e s has b e c o w e overwhelmtng. Th1s produced a re 1 nforcement. of t.he Influence of economlc adv1sors 1n the design of p r e v a 1 1 1 n g poił des, and, t.hus, of the 1 e a d 1 n g role of ' malnst. ream* economlc t.heory.

(4)    F.conomlc t.heory 1s In a sta te of profound crlsls, hut the

econonlsts, for ohv1ons reasons, t.end to deny 1t. and pret.end t.hat economlc t.heory Ir not. In 8 uch a * a ta te. Tn fact. the polides which have been pract.lced sińce morę t.han flft.een years have been successful (alt.hough very slowly) only In so far as t.he curhlng of 1 nf latlon 1 s concerned; th1s was obt.alned, however, at. the cost of a severe slowdown of the rat.e of growt.h, and at. t.he cost. of a . dramat.lc and st.ill increaslng unempl oymen t. . Preva1l1ng theories falled to g1ve a real exp1anat.1on of t.he chan ges which occurred In our 1 nriu s t. r 1 a 1 1 7.ed economles around 19 70. Thelr mlcroeconoralc foundations are ' completely de duet. I ve; sińce t.hey are based on very almple and nnchanglng hypot.heses of ratfonallty, they are snch as not. allowing t.he analysls of the hist.orlcal t. ra ns forma 11 ons , such as t.hose which occurred In the last t.went.y years, The prest.ige which cont.lnues t.o be assoclat.ed to such theories is dup on one side to the high level of forma 1 soph1st.1cat.1on which has been reached hy economlc and economet.ric modelllng, on t.he ot.her one is based on the fact t.hat. the basie pollcy raessages which are generat.ed by snch theories subst.an11 a 1 1 y correspond to what the pollt.ical sphere is wllllng and 1nt.erest.ed t.o hear. A paradox I1ke t.his 1 s not. new In recent. hlst.ory; it woni d be enough t.o re- read In such a pprspent. 1 vp t.wo books of John Ma1 nard Keynes:    'The economlc

consequences of t.he peace* and the 'General t.heory'.

(5)    We prov1de an 1nt.erpret.at. 1on of t.he changes which occurred In our economles around the first half of the sevent.1es. This 1nt.erpretat.1on on one side expla1 ns t.he upsurge of st.agflat.1on and the increaslng ineffect. 1veness of tradi t.lonal economlc poi lei es; but. 11. snggest.s ais o some of t.he direct. ions in which t.o look for appropriat.e st.rat.egles to get out from the present. crlsls. Howev*r, to move 1n t.he direct.lons t.hat. are suggested by our Report, requires a sharp change In t.he att.1t ud es of pollcy makers. Two dlstinct. fact.ors mllit.at.e agalnst the llkellhood of such a change: the first. one is given by the cogn1t.1ve att.1t.ndes of most. of t.he pollt.ical forces and of t.he mass-media from which the 1 pollcy makers der i vp t.hei r st.rengt.h, const.1 t.iiency and Influence.

Such cognitive att.it.udes are such t.hat. (a) inflation is considered the worst. of the evil; (b) promotlng at. any cost. galns in the International compet.1t.1veness of t.he country is considered the hest., when not. t.he only, way t.o Increase employment; (c) wh 1 1 e everybody is ready t.o t.alk of the complex1t.y which has heen reached hy our sod ety, nonę 1s really ready t.o t.ake it. łnt.o account. in the int.erpret.ation of fact.fi and 1n t.he st.ruct.nr 1 ng of appropriat.e polides.

The second negative factor is given by the time specificat.lon of t.he interests and t.he const.ralnt.s which affect. t.he pollt.ical sphere. The polides which are needed