VOLATI LE STATES
VOLATI LE STATES
Institutions, Policy, and the Performance
of American State Economies
W. Mark Crain
THE UNI VERSI TY OF MI CHI GAN PRESS
Ann Arbor
Copyright © by the University of Michigan 2003
All rights reserved
Published in the United States of America by
The University of Michigan Press
Manufactured in the United States of America
Printed on acid-free paper
2006 2005 2004 2003 4 3 2 1
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system,
or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, or
otherwise, without the written permission of the publisher.
A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the British Library.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Crain,W. Mark.
Volatile states : institutions, policy, and the performance of American
state economies / W. Mark Crain.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 0-472-11303-8 (Cloth : alk. paper)
1. Finance, Public United States States. 2.Taxation United
States States. 3. U.S. states Economic policy. I.Title.
HJ275 .C69 2003
330.973'092 dc21 2002011938
To Nicole
Acknowledgments
I wish to thank several colleagues and friends for taking an interest
in this project and for helping me along the way. Richard Boyland,
Bryan Caplan, Nicole Crain, Matt Dobra, John Dunham, Jim Miller,
Clair Smith, Dean Stansel, Bob Tollison, and Wayne Winegarden of-
fered constructive comments on the manuscript. In addition, four
anonymous reviewers for the University of Michigan Press offered
detailed suggestions on an earlier draft. Carol Robert assisted cheer-
fully in the chores required to move the project forward from its
crudest stages to the Anal product. I am grateful to my editor, Ellen
McCarthy, for her oversight, encouragement, excitement, and pa-
tience. Mary Meade, Kevin Rennells, and Ann Schultz at the Univer-
sity of Michigan Press guided me through the production hoops. Jean
Crain and John Gilchrist provided the family push that never allowed
me to give up. Alexander Crain and Juliet Crain made me want to
connect to at least two readers 20 years down the road. I am also
grateful to many students at George Mason University who listened
patiently to a host of half-baked ideas. Partial Anancial support for
the project was generously provided by the James M. Buchanan Cen-
ter for Political Economy, the Center for Study of Public Choice, the
Mercatus Center, and the Phillip Morris Management Corporation.
All errors remain my responsibility.
Contents
List of Illustrations xi
List of Tables xiii
Introduction: Economic and Fiscal Performance
in a Mean-Variance Perspective 1
1. Champions of the State Growth League 5
2. The End of State Income Convergence 25
3. Volatile States: Estimates of the Risk-Return Trade-Off 31
4. Demise of the State Sales Tax 50
5. Economic Consequences of State Tax Policy 64
6. Reliability of Revenues from Alternative
Tax Instruments 73
7. State Budgets Outgrow State Incomes 82
8. Fiscal Uncertainty: The Enemy of EfAcient Budgeting 96
9. Political Ideology and Other Drivers of State
Budget Priorities 119
10. Fresh Perspectives on Familiar Problems 138
Notes 143
References 155
Index 163
Illustrations
1.1. Trajectory of U.S. living standards 6
1.2. Decline of U.S. income growth rates in the twentieth
century 7
1.3. Comparison of state economies (in real income per
capita), 1969 99 11
1.4. Distribution of state growth rates, 1969 99 14
1.5. Comparison of state economies (in real income per
worker), 1969 99 15
1.6. Changes in relative living standards over three decades
(in income per capita) 21
1.7. Changes in relative living standards over three decades
(in income per worker) 23
2.1. End of state income convergence 26
2.2. Pattern of convergence in state income per worker 27
3.1. Regression Volatility index, income per capita 38
3.2. Innovation Volatility index, income per capita 39
3.3. Regression Volatility index, income per worker 40
3.4. Innovation Volatility index, income per worker 41
3.5. Estimated trade-off between volatility and income per
capita 46
3.6. Estimated trade-off between volatility and income per
worker 47
4.1. Changing composition of state tax revenues 52
4.2. Convergence/divergence among states in the structure
of taxes 55
4.3. Convergence/divergence among states in average tax
rates 56
7.1. State spending growth compared to income growth,
1969 98 83
7.2. State spending growth compared to federal spending
relative to income, 1969 98 84
7.3. Comparison of state spending growth (in real spending
per capita), 1969 98 86
xii Illustrations
7.4. Comparison of state spending growth (in spending
relative to income), 1969 98 87
7.5. Effect of initial government size on growth in spending
per capita 88
7.6. Effect of initial government size on growth in spending
relative to income 89
7.7. Convergence among states in spending per capita 90
7.8. Convergence among states in spending as a share of
income 91
7.9. Changes in relative spending over three decades (in
spending per capita) 92
7.10. Changes in relative spending over three decades (in
spending relative to income) 94
8.1. Uncertainty of future funding levels and agency costs 98
8.2. Trade-off between budget volatility and spending per
capita 109
8.3. Trade-off between budget volatility and spending as a
share of income 110
9.1. Major components of state budgets in 1998 120
9.2. Major components of state budgets in 1969 120
9.3. Comparative growth in major budget components,
1969 98 122
9.4. Convergence/divergence among states in budget
priorities (spending per capita) 124
9.5. Convergence/divergence among states in budget
priorities (spending as a share of income) 125
9.6. Convergence/divergence among states in budget
priorities (spending as a share of total state budget) 126
9.7. Effect of citizen and government ideology on total
spending 135
9.8. Effect of citizen ideology on budget priorities 136
Tables
1.1. U.S. income growth rates, comparison of time periods 8
1.2. SigniAcant decline in U.S. economic growth 8
1.3. U.S. economic growth rates in last half of the twentieth
century 9
1.4. State rankings for real income per capita growth,
1969 99 13
1.5. State rankings for real income per worker growth,
1969 99 17
1.6. State rankings based on real income per capita
(in 2000 $) 18
1.7. State rankings based on real income per worker
(in 2000 $) 20
2.1. Barro-type test for state income convergence, 1969 99 28
3.1. Core variables used to explain state income, 1969 99 34
3.2. Economic volatility measures by state, 1969 99 35
3.3. Correlation matrix for state volatility measures 36
3.4. Relationship between level and volatility of income,
1969 99 45
3.a1. Summary statistics and data sources 48
3.a2. Relationship between level and volatility of income,
1969 99 49
4.1. Major sources of state tax revenues: 1998 and changes
since 1969 53
4.2. State personal income taxes: marginal and average tax
rates, 1969 98 59
4.3. State sales taxes: marginal and average tax rates,
1969 98 60
4.4. Total state taxes: marginal and average tax rates,
1969 98 61
5.1. Impact of marginal tax rates on state income, 1969 98 68
5.2. Impact of marginal tax rates on state income growth,
1969 98 69
5.a1. Impact of marginal tax rates on state income, 1969 98 72
6.1. Volatility in revenues from sales taxes and individual
income taxes, 1968 98 76
xiv Tables
6.2. Revenue volatility from tax diversiAcation versus a
single tax instrument, 1968 98 79
8.1. Core variables used to explain state government
expenditures 105
8.2. Effects of Ascal institutions on state government
expenditures per capita 106
8.3. Effects of Ascal institutions on state government
expenditures as a share of income 107
8.4. Effects of Ascal institutions on state government
revenues 113
8.5. Effects of Ascal institutions on state tax revenues 114
8.6. Effects of institutions and tax revenue volatility on state
spending volatility 116
8.a1. Summary statistics and data sources 118
9.1. Political ideology ratings 129
9.2. Major budget components: regression results for core
models with demographic and economics factors 130
9.3. Major budget components: regression results for
expenditure volatility and Ascal institutions 131
9.4. Relative importance of ideology versus expenditure
volatility: elasticity estimates 132
9.5. Relative importance of ideology versus expenditure
volatility: impact on per capita spending of a 1 percent
increase 132
9.6. Major budget components: regression results for
Citizen and Government Political Ideology indices 134
9.a1. Summary statistics and data sources 137