What Were They Thinking?

An interesting analysis of a hand played at the World Poker Open

When you watch poker on TV, do you ever see some plays that seem incomprehensible? Recently, a student sent me such a hand from the World Poker Open in Tunica, Mississippi, and asked, "What's going on here?"

Here is the hand, played between Gary Gibbs, a tournament regular with lifetime tournament winnings of more than $300,000, and Gavin Smith, who has been on a tear recently and has lifetime tournament winnings of more than $2 million. With 11 players left (all in the money), there was a fivehanded and a sixhanded table. The blinds were $8,000-$16,000 with $2,000 antes. Thus, at the fivehanded table, the total pot before the deal was $34,000. Gibbs was one off the button with a deep stack of just over $1 million. Smith was on the button and had Gary covered.

Gibbs raised to $48,000 and Smith called. The flop came K
Q
5
, Gibbs bet $65,000, and Smith called. The turn card was the 7
, Gibbs bet $150,000, and Smith called. The river card was the 9, Gibbs checked, Smith bet $400,000, and Gibbs moved all in for about $650,000. Smith called, showing the 10
8
for a flush, and Gibbs showed the 8
6
for a straight. Smith won the biggest pot of the tournament to that point, and Gibbs was eliminated tied for 10th place, and took home $34,600.

OK, what really was happening here? What were these two guys doing betting and calling with nothing at all? I have no way to know what was going on in their heads, and I am looking at this hand out of context, but I will take a shot at it. I apologize in advance to Gary and Gavin if I am misrepresenting their thoughts. I also am not going to tell you that their actions were good or bad. These are the actions they made at the table, and I am going to try to reason why they made them. Here is my analysis of their thinking:

Gibbs: I am one off the button. Everyone is playing pretty tight, trying to make the final table, so I will raise here to steal the blinds and antes. After all, someone has to. A standard raise to $48,000, three times the big blind, has been working at this table, so I will try it.

Smith: Gibbs raised, but he would do that with almost anything, trying to steal. I don't want to reraise and risk a bunch of chips in case one of the blinds wakes up with a real hand and comes over the top, making me fold. I have a pretty good hand to call here, as it can make some unexpected big hands. With my position, I should be able to take this pot away from Gibbs. Plus, I may flop a miracle.

(The flop comes K
Q
5
; the pot holds $134,000.)

Gibbs: I missed the flop, but I have only one opponent, and he probably missed, too. I must make a standard continuation bet here of half the pot. He will probably give up if he missed, or even if he has middle pair. If he calls or raises, I will just give up on the hand.

Smith: I missed, and he is betting. Of course, he will pretty much always bet with one opponent after he has raised. I will risk a call here and see what he does on the turn. If he missed the flop, he will probably check and fold on the turn, as my call will look scary to him. I estimate I will have a 50 percent chance of stealing this pot, and I am getting 2-to-1 for my call.

(The turn is the 7
; the pot holds $264,000.)

Gibbs: Smith's call was scary, but I just picked up an open-end straight draw, and I have eight outs to make a real hand and possibly double through. Plus, if I bet, he will think I'm strong and will fold many hands with which he would call on the flop to see if I really have strength. Had I missed the turn completely, I would have given up, but this draw now enables me to fire a second barrel. I need to show some strength here, and I should bet more than half the pot to convince Smith that I have the goods. A bet of 60 percent of the pot, $150,000, should do it.

Smith: Well, he bet again, so he really must have something. However, I just picked up a well-hidden flush draw. His bet of $150,000 is pretty big, but if I hit my flush, there is a good chance he will give me his remaining $650,000 in addition to the $414,000 that's already in the pot. So, I am really calling $150,000 in an attempt to win more than a million. With a 20 percent chance to hit, that moves the odds in my favor. I know I am drawing, but my flush will be well-hidden. Since his turn bet shows strength, he probably will pay me off.

(The river is the 9
; the pot is $564,000.)

Gibbs: Holy cow! I made my straight. He will never believe it. Now, how do I get a lot of money from him? I can just push all in, but that probably will scare him off top pair, and I want a big reward for my miracle catch. If I bet a little, I probably will get called, but I want a bigger payoff. I will check! He has called thus far, so he must have a pretty good hand. He will bet most of his hands to get paid off, and perhaps will put in enough to get pot-committed, so when I check-raise, he will have to make a crying call. I may double through here. Plus, even if he has a weak hand, he may bet something on a desperation bluff, and I will get something from him instead of nothing if I bet. All in all, I will try the check.

Smith: Holy cow! I made my flush. He will never believe it. Now, how do I get a lot of money from him? I know he has a good hand because he bet the turn, but his check probably means he does not have a huge hand and does not want to face a fancy raise by me. I need to bet something here that will get paid off. I don't want to put him all in, as he probably will fold, and I won't get anything. The pot is $564,000. If I bet around two-thirds of it, he can make a crying call and still have $250,000 left, which he just might do rather than see the whole pot go to me. Maybe I should bet a little less, but I think he might pay me off at $400,000, so I will bet that.

Gibbs: I did it. He bet. And he did bet enough so that he'll have to pay me off. I will just push all in here and he will have to call the rest. Final table, here I come - with a big stack.

Smith: What is this? A check-raise? Did he make a bigger flush? Could he have the Q
J
? I hope not, but it doesn't matter. I have a real hand, and I am totally pot-committed. I will call and just hope he was trapping with something I can beat.

That is my take on Gibbs' and Smith's thinking. Certainly, these players could have made different decisions at every point, and may make different ones tomorrow based on their table image, their view of how well their opponents play, the stack sizes of the other players, especially the blinds, tells they may have had on each other or the field, their goals in the tournament, and many other factors.

Announcers on TV do not have time to go into hands (especially poker math) in any depth, so their analysis is necessarily somewhat superficial. Perhaps my analysis, if close to correct, gave you a feel for what these players are thinking as they approach and play at the final table of a major event.

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