Planning Your Personal Development - Part I

The basic principles of planning your poker career

After reading my series "It's a Great Party, But … ," my friend Jerry Flannigan said, "Al, you're right about the need for self-development plans, but your recommendations were too specific. Some readers don't know much about planning. Teach them the basic principles."

He's right, and this series will tell you how to plan your poker career. It is based on my book, Executive Career Strategy, and it will discuss only your development as a player. Professionals should also consult a financial consultant.

Why Don't Players Plan Their Development?
Executives and professionals plan, and there are many books, college courses, and seminars on the principles. Yet, as Barry Greenstein stated on Page 88 of Ace on the River, "Most players don't have a long-term plan to improve their playing ability." Why?

Poker is a very NOW game. When the action is to you, you must make a quick decision. This short-term emphasis affects almost everything we do.

It takes time and effort, and the benefits are neither clear nor immediate. But without plans, you probably won't reach your long-term goals. Too many good players ended up broke because they did not plan ahead.

Planning and the self-critical analysis it requires can be unpleasant. Most players don't like to look hard at themselves. But you can't win without doing unpleasant things, such as folding weak hands, avoiding certain games, and controlling your emotions. Planning is just one of those unpleasant but necessary actions.

You can't predict the future, and unexpected events often defeat plans. You may think this unpredictability reduces the value of plans, but the opposite is true. The planning process is much more valuable than the plan itself. By carefully setting goals, analyzing yourself and your situation, and writing a plan, you prepare to react effectively to unexpected events.

Overview Of The Planning Process

I will briefly describe the steps you should take, and future columns will tell you how to take each one.

• Set good goals
• Objectively analyze your assets and liabilities
• Write a plan for reaching your goals
• Monitor your progress and revise your plans

1. Set good goals: Many players either don't set goals or set ones that have little planning value. For example, "to become an expert" is too fuzzy. "Expert" is poorly defined, and you can't know how far you have to go to become one. "To be the best possible player" is worse, because you can't measure your progress toward such a vague and unattainable goal. "To win the World Series of Poker championship" is completely unrealistic for nearly everyone; it's a fantasy that hinders intelligent planning.

Your goals should be clear, realistic, and measurable, and they should include target dates. There are three main types of goals: results, skills, and personal traits. Results can be stated in two ways:

• To win a certain amount of money, such as, "to win $20,000 by Dec. 31, 2006."

• To achieve a certain win rate, such as, "to beat the $20-$40 game at the XYZ Casino for one big bet per hour by Dec. 31, 2006."

To achieve these results, you should develop many skills, such as card reading, bluffing, hand selection, and value betting. You also should develop certain personal traits, such as patience, discipline, and emotional control.

Because luck has so much effect on results, measuring them can be difficult, and it is even harder to assess skills and personal traits. Future columns will discuss these measurement problems.

2. Analyze your assets and liabilities: Assets and liabilities should be stated in comparison to your opponents. If you have more of a favorable quality (such as knowledge or discipline), you have a valuable asset. A liability is exactly the opposite: less of a good quality or more of a bad one (for example, a tendency to tilt).

Because you compare yourself to your opponents, your assets and liabilities change as you move upward. For example, you may read cards better than $5-$10 players, but not as well as the $20-$40 players. Card-reading skill would be an asset while playing $5-$10, but a liability when you move up.

3. Write a plan for reaching your goals: Let's use a trip to clarify the difference between a goal and a plan. Your goal is to drive from Las Vegas to Denver by 5 p.m. tomorrow. Your plan could be to leave right after work at 5 p.m., and drive north on Interstate 15 and then east on Interstate 70. To be sure of a hotel room, you would book one in Richfield, sleep there, and then drive again at 9 a.m.

This plan has a subgoal or milestone: sleeping in Richfield. Your development plan should also have milestones. For example, a subgoal may be to beat the $20-$40 game for one small bet per hour by June 30, 2006.

You then should determine which knowledge, skills, and other assets you need to reach your goal. Write plans to acquire them, such as reading certain books, taking lessons, and retaining a coach. These decisions should include target dates, such as "read The Theory of Poker by Dec. 15, 2005." If you just vaguely decide to read a book someday, you may never read it.

4. Monitor your progress and revise your plans: Don't set your goals and plans in concrete. Keep track of your progress and revise them as conditions change. In addition, just reading a book does not mean that you have mastered a subject. Ruthlessly evaluate yourself, and ask friends or professionals to comment on your evaluation.

You may find, for example, that you're making more progress than you expected. You could then set more ambitious goals. Conversely, you may realize that you are not ready to beat that $20-$40 game. You may then decide to move down or spend more time working on your skills.

The Benefits Of Planning
Planning lets you decide where you are going and how you will get there. You will increase your chances of reaching your goals and gain a sense of direction. Instead of drifting, you will have more control over your poker career.

Hopefully, this column convinced you to take planning seriously. Future columns will tell you how to perform these steps.

Planning Your Personal Development Part II

Setting goals for your poker career provides both a sense of direction and the motivation to move toward them

If you don't know where you want to go, you probably won't like wherever you end up. That point is obvious, yet many players either don't set goals or set ones that have little planning value. Good goals provide both a sense of direction and the motivation to move toward them.

Your goals should fit your situation, strengths, and weaknesses. In fact, there is a circular relationship between setting goals and evaluating assets and liabilities. As you work on one, you may find that you need to revise the other. For example, if you realize that your goals are too ambitious for your abilities and situation, you should probably set more modest goals, work on your abilities, and/or change your situation.

Your Ultimate Objective
Your goals and plans should lead toward an ultimate objective: Where do you want to go in poker? There are at least four possible objectives:

1. To enjoy playing without caring much about improving your results

2. To continue as a recreational player, but improve your results

3. To become or continue as a grind-it-out pro or semipro, but with better results

4. To become a top player

The first objective is reasonable for purely recreational players. Since they have little reason to plan, I won't discuss them. Reaching the next three objectives requires steadily increasing amounts of planning. You need more planning to move toward objective No. 3 than toward No. 2, and you probably need lots of it to become a top player.

Everything you do should contribute to reaching your ultimate objective. If an action will help you move toward that objective, do it. If it will hinder your progress, avoid it. That obvious point is often ignored. People take all sorts of actions that directly conflict with attaining their objectives. For example, some people claim they want to become top players, but don't work on their game, or they deplete their bankroll by buying expensive toys.

Your Annual Goals
After deciding upon an ultimate objective, set goals each year for your results, and the characteristics that will help you to get them. Your results goals are, of course, the most important, but you probably won't get the desired results without improving your:

• Knowledge of poker theory, strategy, and other subjects

• Skills, such as card reading, bluffing, hand selection, and value betting

• Traits, such as patience, attention to detail, and emotional control

• Situational factors, such as the demands upon your time and income

Whenever possible, all of your goals should use the SMART structure: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-based.

Specific
"To become a better player" and "to win more money" are too vague and general. Instead, set specific goals for your results, and a few of the factors that will help you achieve them. For example, you may set one or more of these results goals:

• Increase my win rate by 20 percent in my current game

• Beat a larger game for a certain win rate

• Make the money three times and win one of my casino's next 12 monthly tournaments

Your results are affected by too many factors to list here. If you set improvement goals for all of them, you may make so little progress toward any goal that you become disheartened. So, concentrate on the ones that will contribute the most to improving your results.

Measurable
If a goal is not measurable, you probably can't tell whether you have achieved it, and that sense of achievement is essential. Let's say you are now beating a $4-$8 game for one big bet per hour. A measurable goal would be to win that one big bet in a $6-$12 game. If you keep good records, you can tell when you reach that goal or how much further you have to go.

Unfortunately, because luck has such huge effects, results goals are not as measurable as they may appear. You could play very well but be unlucky, or vice versa. You therefore can't state win rates confidently without hundreds of hours of play. Despite that problem, these goals are the easiest ones to make measurable.

In school, you took exams and got grades. At many jobs, you get performance evaluations, which may include ratings on knowledge, skills, and personal qualities. Many professions require that you prove your qualifications by getting a license.

Because we don't have objective standards or credentials, many players greatly overestimate their assets and underestimate their liabilities. You should constantly resist that tendency. Seek information that will help you to compare yourself honestly to the competition in any game you play or intend to play.

Achievable
Goals should be challenging enough to bring out your best efforts, but not so ambitious that you can't realistically hope to attain them. When you achieve a challenging goal, you gain the confidence and motivation to continue your progress. If your goals are too modest, they will not motivate you. If they are too ambitious, you may get discouraged and give up.

Alas, many players act out their fantasies, and this tendency has been greatly reinforced by the astonishing success of Chris Moneymaker and a few other sudden celebrities. Winning next year's World Series of Poker is theoretically possible, but your chances are so slim that it is not a reasonable goal.

Even if your results goals are more modest, they still may conflict with your other qualities. Unless you are very talented and committed, and have a very favorable personal situation, you probably should set relatively modest goals.

Let's take two very talented, equally committed players. Both have played poker for three years, have worked hard on their games, and have had similar, excellent results in cash games and small tournaments. Both would like to become top tournament pros.

• The first is 24 years old and lives at home, and his wealthy parents love poker and want to support him while he plays the tournament circuit.

• The second is 65, ready to retire, married to someone who barely tolerates his "gambling," and will need every penny of his pension and poker winnings to sup- port his family and lifestyle.

Moving rapidly toward becoming a top tournament pro may be achievable for the young man, but for the older one, it is just a wish.

Relevant
Your goals should fit together so that they pull in the same direction. They must also match your ultimate objective and current situation.

Let's say that you're a recreational player and intend to remain one, but would like to increase your win rate. If you play mostly no-fold'em hold'em, don't plan to become more deceptive. Against oblivious players, deceptiveness is almost useless. Instead, work on value-betting, because a few good value bets each night can greatly improve your bottom line.

If you want to improve your results as a grind-it-out semipro, you should learn how to select soft games and then spend most of your time in them to increase your win rate.

If you want to become a top player, you should sometimes go in the opposite direction; occasionally pick tough games, even if you lose money in them. If you play in just the softest games, you can't develop the skills you need to become a top player.

Time-based
Target dates are essential. Without them, you can't measure your progress. A good goal would be: "To beat the $6-$12 game for one big bet per hour by December 31, 2006." Subgoals will help you to measure your progress and give you extra motivation, for example: "To beat that game for one small bet per hour by June 30, 2006."

The Next Step
My next column will provide a questionnaire and procedure to apply these principles to yourself. After completing it, you should have a preliminary idea of where you are going and how you will get there.

Planning Your Personal Development - Part III

The Goal-Setting Questionnaire

Reading this column may not be fun, but it could be very useful. Most columns don't require much work, but this one asks some searching questions that you may not want to answer. While that reluctance is understandable, don't yield to it. Thoroughly answering these questions can improve both your game and your future.

Whenever possible, all of your goals should use the SMART structure: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Relevant, and Time-based. This structure was discussed in Part II of this series, which can be found at CardPlayer.com.

Your Ultimate Objective
Your most important planning decision is setting an ultimate objective, because it determines your overall direction, and every step you take should move you toward it. Where do you want to go in poker? There are at least four main objectives:

1. To enjoy playing without caring much about improving your results.

2. To continue as a recreational player, but improve your results.

3. To become or continue as a grind-it-out pro or semipro, but with better results.

4. To become a top player.

If No. 1 is your objective, don't bother to complete this questionnaire; you don't need plans just to have fun. The more ambitious your objective is, the more important planning becomes.

What is your ultimate objective?

Why have you set this objective?

Your ultimate objective provides the overall direction for your plans, but it is too far in the future to guide your day-to-day decisions. Annual goals will help you move toward that ultimate objective.

Your Results
Improving your results is the most important and visible step toward your ultimate objective. Unless you steadily improve your results, you probably won't reach an ambitious long-term objective. Since you can't improve them without developing your knowledge, skills, and so on, results indirectly measure your progress toward the other goals.

What results should you try to get in the next year?

Why have you chosen these results?

How will you get these results?

Your Knowledge
Winning poker demands many types of knowledge, such as theory, odds, and strategy. If you don't acquire sufficient knowledge, you probably won't improve your results.

What new knowledge will you need to get those results?

Why do you need this knowledge more than some other kinds?

How will you acquire this knowledge?

Your Skills
Skills are essentially your ability to apply knowledge. You may know people who could ace an exam on poker theory, but can't apply that knowledge while playing. Knowledge can be developed passively by reading, listening, and observing, but you need practice and feedback to develop skills such as hand-reading and bluffing.

What skills should you improve to get those results?

Why are these skills more important than others?

How will you develop these skills?

Your Traits
Relatively little has been written about personal traits, but they can have an immense impact on your results. If you lack patience, discipline, attention to detail, and so on, you probably can't get the full benefit of your knowledge and skills.

What personal traits should you improve to get those results?

Why are these traits more important than others?

How will you develop these traits?

Your Situation
Hardly anything has been written about situational factors (except your bankroll), but they can have a huge impact on your development. For example, if you want to turn pro but have to work very long hours and are married to someone who detests poker, you have a huge liability.

What situational factors should you change?

Why have you chosen to change these factors rather than others?

How will you change them?

Final Questions

Check all your answers. Do they satisfy the SMART formula?

How can you make them more specific, measurable, achievable, and so on?

Do they all fit together and reinforce each other so that you're moving toward your ultimate objective?

How could you improve the way they fit together?

The Next Steps
We all lack objectivity about ourselves. To get a clearer picture of yourself, ask someone you trust to answer these questions about you. Then, compare your answers. You may be shocked, but that second opinion can provide a much better foundation for planning than you can create on your own.

After deciding where you want to go, you are ready to evaluate the assets that will help you to get there and the liabilities that will hold you back. My next column will suggest a procedure for this evaluation.

Planning Your Personal Development Part IV

Evaluating your assets and liabilities

After setting your goals, you should evaluate the assets that will help you to reach them and the liabilities that will hold you back. State both in comparison to your opponents. If you have more of a favorable quality (such as knowledge or discipline), you have an asset. A liability is exactly the opposite: less of a good quality or more of a bad one (for example, a tendency to tilt).

Because of these comparisons, your assets and liabilities change as you move upward. For example, you may read cards better than the $5-$10 players, but more poorly than the $20-$40 players. Card-reading skill would be an asset while playing $5-$10, but a liability when you move up.

Many people dislike evaluating themselves, and they especially dislike this comparative process. They say, essentially, "I am good at bluffing, reading cards, or whatever, and I don't want to compare myself to other people." That attitude is destructive because you must objectively compare yourself to the competition. Your results depend not upon your absolute abilities, but upon that comparison. If you are a better player than they are, you win. If they are better, you lose. It really is that simple.

The Critical Problem is Objectivity
You must be brutally realistic about this comparison. Don't remember only your great plays and think they are typical. A tennis coach once said that his students' image of their game is a composite of the best shots they have ever hit: the great backhand winner against Charlie, the topspin lob that beat Harry, the service ace against the club champion. In fact, they hit very few great shots and make far more unforced errors.

Students do the same thing on exams. They remember their fine answers to a few questions, but ignore their bad answers. Employees overemphasize the few things they do well, but overlook their mistakes.

Poker players are less objective than tennis players, students, or employees. Luck has such huge effects that players generally take credit for their wins and blame bad luck for their losses. They remember their great plays and forget their mistakes. Hence, "Almost all players put themselves closer to the front of the pack than they deserve to be." (Roy Cooke, "A Great Game?" Card Player, May 10, 2002) They overestimate not just their overall game, but almost everything about themselves.

Types of Assets and Liabilities
Barry Tanenbaum, Roy Cooke, Mason Malmuth, Lou Krieger, Barry Greenstein, and many others have written about the characteristics of winning players. They agree on some points, but disagree on others. To get a fairly complete list, I have borrowed from all of them, but will not discuss the differences between them. You should read their works to understand why they emphasize various qualities. For the exact references, just send me an e-mail.

Assets and liabilities can be divided into at least five categories:
1. Knowledge
2. Skills
3. Personal traits
4. Mental abilities
5. Situational factors

Nearly all poker writers focus on knowledge and skills and ignore or minimize the others, even though they can have huge effects. These categories sometimes overlap or conflict. For example, different writers have called the ability to adjust to changing conditions a skill, a trait, and a mental ability.

Knowledge is the amount of poker information that you understand. It has two dimensions, breadth (the number of subjects you understand) and depth. You need several types of knowledge, including poker theory, strategy, statistical principles, game theory, probabilities, and psychology (of yourself and other people).

Skills are the ability to apply knowledge to get the desired results. Some people understand theory, but can't apply it well. They either act at the wrong time or execute their plays poorly. You need many skills, and their importance changes as you move upward. At the lowest levels, the most important skill is selecting hands, followed closely by folding early. Because so many players play too loosely, these skills will be enough to beat many games.

As you move upward, fewer people play bad hands and chase foolishly. You therefore need other skills: raising, check-raising, bluffing, stealing blinds, defending your blinds, semibluffing, snapping off bluffs, inducing calls and bluffs, avoiding traps, isolating weak players, manipulating pot size, betting for value, deceiving opponents, reading tells, reading cards from betting patterns, reading opponents' minds (what do they think you have?), adjusting to different types of players and games, shifting gears, slow-playing, betting and raising the right amount in pot-limit and no-limit, buying a free card, projecting the right image, isolating weak players, manipulating opponents into making mistakes, playing shorthanded, understanding and using position, and selecting good games.

Although this list is long, it is far from complete. For many skills, there is a counterskill that I haven't mentioned. For example, if you suspect that someone is trying to buy a free card, you should take certain steps. Some advanced skills were omitted because they can't be described in only a few words. However, this list does contain most of the important skills.

Personal traits are not as clearly defined as knowledge and skills, and their effects are much greater than you may believe. If you work only on your knowledge and skills, you will probably be disappointed. Most players do not get the results their knowledge and skill should produce because they lack important personal traits (and mental abilities).

For example, if you aren't honest with yourself, you will play against players who are better than you. If you lack discipline, you won't use your skills well. If you can't control your emotions, you will make some terrible decisions.

Barry Greenstein's Ace on the River contains a list of personal traits of winning players. All of them are included in this column, but a few were put into the "mental abilities" category.

In ascending importance, he listed sense of humor, prideful, generous, outgoing, insensitive, optimistic, independent, manipulative, greedy, persistent, self-centered, trustworthy, aggressive, competitive, survivors, empathic, fearless, motivated, in control of their emotions, honest with themselves, and psychologically tough.

Some traits are socially acceptable (optimistic and trustworthy), while others are condemned (manipulative and greedy). His picture of winning players is more subtle and complicated than the one most people have.

Some other important traits are patience, discipline, accepting responsibility for results, stamina, a detached attitude toward chips, accepting losses, admitting mistakes quickly, depersonalizing conflicts, adjusting to changes, confidence in your judgment, decisiveness, and a strong work ethic.

Some traits are "two-edged swords." They help you to become a winning player, but too much of them can be harmful. Fearlessness helps you to attack aggressively, but if you are too fearless, you will take foolish chances. You have to be intensely competitive, but "supercompetitors" can't accept their limitations or handle bad beats and losing streaks.

Mental abilities are absolutely essential, and some writers' recommendations can be implemented only by gifted people. For example, if you don't have great intuition, don't rely on your first impressions.

Some mental abilities overlap. General intelligence (IQ) tests also measure memory and attention to detail.

Others conflict with each other. Intuitive people can quickly see the big picture, but are usually poor at details.

Some important mental abilities are general intelligence, analytic capacity, math proficiency, long-term memory, short-term memory, thinking under pressure, attention to detail, seeing the big picture, handling many variables, deduction, induction, learning from mistakes, alertness, concentration, mental speed, logic, and intuition.

Situational factors can be critically important. For example, if you have to work long hours or are committed to another hobby, you don't have much time to develop your game.

Some important situational factors are your bankroll, living expenses, free time, family's and friends' attitudes toward poker, whether you are married or single, availability of live games in your area, and the reliability and speed of your computer and Internet connection.

This list of assets and liabilities could be expanded, but it includes most of the important ones. If you can accurately compare yourself to your competition on all of them, you will understand your poker potential far better than most people do.

Your Poker Balance Sheet
Just evaluating yourself on all of them will be useful, but an organized Poker Balance Sheet (PBS) will help you to see the picture more clearly. My next column will tell you how to prepare your own PBS.

Planning Your Personal Development Part V

Your poker balance sheet

My last column recommended comparing your knowledge, skills, and other qualities to your competition's. If you have more of a favorable quality (such as knowledge), you have an asset. A liability is exactly the opposite: less of a good quality or more of a bad one (such as going on tilt). That list of knowledge, skills, and so on can be found in Part IV of this series, "Evaluating Your Assets and Liabilities," at www.CardPlayer.com.

Psychological tests and other methods for assessing these qualities aren't very useful. They compare you to the general population, but you don't play against just anyone. For example, IQ tests are accurate, but your IQ can mislead you. If it is 116, you are above 80 percent of the general population, but I believe you are below the average poker professional.

I said "I believe" because there is no data about professionals' IQs. In fact, there is no solid data on almost everything in poker (except the math). Players and writers have opinions on many subjects, but nobody can prove that he is right. The qualities listed in my previous column came from highly respected authorities, but nobody really knows why players succeed or fail. In addition, the effects of luck and denial of our weaknesses make it very difficult to appraise ourselves objectively.

The methods used in this series have been adapted from my own and other people's work in business settings, but they have never been applied to poker; nor are there any validated tests for evaluating poker players. You should therefore regard your answers as suggestive only.

Why Bother?
If the method does not produce definitive answers, why should you do all of this work? This comparative process will help you to go beyond crude generalizations such as: "I'm a good player," or, "I'm better than Harry, but not as good as Barbara." It will suggest where you are stronger or weaker than your competition so that you can plan your development. Instead of just reading books or trying out various techniques, you can work on whatever will be most helpful.

I wish there were well-validated tests, and that the process took less time and effort, but we have to work with what we've got. If you're losing, it will suggest steps to become a winner. If you are winning, it can help you to win more or to move up. To reach your full potential, you have to work hard and examine yourself, and a poker balance sheet (PBS) can help you to focus and organize your efforts. It's far from perfect, but it's better than anything I have seen.

Procedure
This procedure divides all those qualities into three groups: assets, liabilities, and unknowns.

Because your assets and liabilities change for each game and level, you would ideally prepare a separate PBS for each one. For the moment, let's just do it for one group.

1. Don't guess! If you are unsure of how to rate yourself, don't call it an asset or a liability. Temporarily rate it as "don't know." If it is an important quality, get the information you need to rate it.

2. Use a computer, because you will cut and paste information as you change comparison groups or develop your abilities. For example, you may read cards better than $10-$20 players but more poorly than $20-$40 players. "Reading cards" would be an asset in one game but a liability in the other. If you improve your card-reading skill, it may shift from a liability to an asset. With a computer, you can easily edit information and move it from one place to another.

3. Lay it out like this:

4. Start by comparing yourself to the players you know best. You can't accurately compare yourself to strangers. Later, you may use the same procedure for every group you play or want to play against, but start by preparing the easiest PBS. Describe your competition briefly, such as "all the players in Bellagio's $10-$20 game," or, "the best players in Bellagio's $10-$20 game."

5. Rate yourself on every item that you believe is important in the lists of knowledge, skills, and so on. If you think an item is unimportant, just ignore it:
1 = Much worse
2 = Worse
3 = Equal or don't know
4 = Better
5 = Much better

6. Put the qualities rated 4 and 5 into the assets column, and the ones rated 1 and 2 into the liabilities column. Ignore the ones rated 3 or get the information you need to rate them.

7. Italicize the ones rated 1 or 5. Put them at the top of the assets or liabilities column for each category (such as knowledge).

8. Get a second opinion. Ask one or two trusted friends to comment on your PBS. Encourage them to be honest; tell them you want the truth, not some tactful soft soap. You may not enjoy hearing their comments, but - because you can't be objective - you need a second opinion. Doctors get them all the time, and they have much better tests and are more objective than you are.

Understanding Your Data
First, look at the important qualities that you could not rate because you lacked information. Do whatever it takes to make those comparisons.

Second, compare your PBS to your results. They should be consistent:
1. If you have more assets than liabilities, you should be winning.
2. If you have more liabilities than assets, you should be losing.
3. If your assets and liabilities are about equal, you should be breaking even.

If your results are not consistent with your PBS, look for the causes. Perhaps a few assets and/or liabilities have such huge effects that they overwhelm the pattern. Only a few assets can have that much impact. For example, if you read cards superbly, you can win despite having many liabilities such as limited theoretical knowledge or math skills.

Several liabilities have such enormous effects that they cause talented players to get poor results. For example, if you go on tilt easily, or if you love to gamble and to challenge superior players, your other assets and liabilities don't matter much. You are going to lose or barely break even.

If your assets greatly exceed your liabilities, the two most probable causes are:
1. You have overestimated your assets, which is extremely common. Most people do it. If you are losing or breaking even, you certainly have overestimated yourself, and it's time to stop kidding yourself.
2. If you are winning a lot of money, you may be playing below your level. You're not getting the full benefit from your talents. Of course, that conclusion depends upon your motives. Perhaps maximizing your profits is not as important to you as enjoying the game and winning frequently. Or, you may not have the bankroll to move up. If you have the bankroll and want to make more money, you should seriously consider moving up.

If your liabilities greatly exceed your assets, the three most probable causes are:
1. You are too harsh on yourself, especially if you are winning.
2. If you are winning, some assets are so important (such as game selection or discipline) that they overwhelm the liabilities' effects.
3. You are playing above your level. If you are losing, you should move down unless you don't care about your results. If your losses are damaging your life but you continue to play above your level, you may be a pathological gambler. Consult a professional before you ruin your life.

Your PBS also suggests where you should focus your self-development efforts. An excellent player told me that preparing a PBS helped him to realize that he was studying the wrong subjects. He rated himself well above his competition on every type of knowledge except game theory. He had been buying books on subjects he knew well, but did not study game theory. Once the picture became clear, he knew what to study.

Many people focus on precisely the wrong areas. For example, some players know a great deal of theory, but lose consistently because they gamble too much. So, what do they do? They buy more books and study more theory. That's not their problem. Don't follow in their footsteps. Work on your weaknesses, not on what you enjoy doing. My next column will discuss ways to use your PBS and other self-analyses to plan your self-development.

Planning Your Personal Development - Part VI, Making Your Plan

My previous columns recommended thoroughly analyzing your goals, assets, and liabilities. Those analyses were certainly not easy, but they should have clarified your conception of yourself and your potential: You now should know where you want to go and the factors that will help or hinder your progress.

If you haven't done those analyses, you can find the columns at CardPlayer.com. I recommend that you read them and do the exercises. Then, take three more steps:

1. Review your ultimate objective. The analysis of your assets and liabilities may have indicated that the objective you set in Part II was unattainable. If so, replace it with one that is ambitious enough to bring out your best, but is still achievable. What can you realistically expect to accomplish?

2. Review your intermediate goals. Even after setting a reasonable objective, many people try to move too quickly. Their impatience prevents them from building their bankroll or developing all of the qualities needed to reach their objective. Set a schedule that is challenging enough to stimulate you, but not so demanding that you can't meet it.

3. Decide how you will reach all of those goals. Clearly specify the steps you will take to build the bankroll and qualities needed for all your goals.

Review Your Ultimate Objective
Many players - including some mediocre ones - have told me that their ultimate objective is to become pros, even top tournament pros. Such objectives are often no more than childish dreams. When we're small, we may hope to become professional athletes, movie stars, singers, and perhaps even the president of the United States. Most of us outgrow those fantasies and set more realistic goals.

But many people never outgrow their dreams about poker. Luck lets them deceive themselves about how well they play and what they can accomplish. Poker looks so easy, especially on television (because the shows are edited). After seeing apparently weak players become overnight millionaires and celebrities, they think, "If he can do it, so can I."

Your objective should be more realistic. Thoroughly analyze the qualities needed to attain your objective, and then decide whether you can develop all of them. If you can't do it, set a more modest objective.

You also must accept an extremely unpleasant fact: You can't change much about yourself. Your genes and past experiences have limited what you can become. Reaching an overly ambitious objective may require impossibly large changes in your talents and personality.

• Knowledge is easy to acquire. You can get it from books, articles, DVDs, lectures, and seminars. Poker writers and players focus on knowledge, but it is not enough to reach ambitious objectives. Because of other factors, most people do not play remotely as well as they know how to play. For example, we all know better than to play weak hands and chase when our hand is probably beat, but nearly all of us make those mistakes.

• Skills are somewhat more difficult to improve. You need practice and feedback, but you can get them fairly easily. A coach or discussion group can help you with both your knowledge and skills.

• Personal traits are very hard or impossible to change. Unless you work very hard, you can't become much more patient, disciplined, or resistant to tilt, and hardly anything will make you more motivated.

• Situational factors vary enormously. You may be able to change your working hours or spending habits, but you probably can't do much about what your family thinks of poker.

• Most mental abilities are essentially unchangeable. You're stuck with what you've already got. Since you can't change them, pick games and situations that minimize the effects of your weaknesses. For example, if you have a poor short-term memory, play hold'em or Omaha instead of stud. If you can't play your A-game for more than a few hours, play short sessions of cash games and avoid multitable tournaments.

To summarize: Don't kid yourself about your abilities or what you will need to reach your objective. Accept and work within your limitations. Set an achievable objective, work on what you can improve, and find ways to compensate for the qualities you can't change.

Review Your Intermediate Goals
Intermediate goals should help you to progress toward your ultimate objective at a realistic pace. Countless people have failed to reach their full potential because they tried to do too much, too soon. To improve your chances of reaching your objective, I urge you to follow Barry Tanenbaum's general approach.

He is now a successful $30-$60 pro, coach, and Card Player columnist, but he did not reach that level overnight. He decided long ago to spend a great deal of time studying and discussing poker, and to move up only after hundreds of hours of winning play at many levels: $2-$4, $3-$6, $6-$12, $10-$20, $15-$30, and $20-$40.

He occasionally was tempted to skip a step, but he didn't do it. A few times, he moved up, lost, and moved back down. Then he analyzed what he had done wrong, rebuilt his bankroll, and moved up again. As his results, coaching practice, and columns show, his patience and careful planning have paid off.

Decide How You Will Reach All of Those Goals
You need more than a reasonable schedule. You must carefully plan the steps needed to acquire all of the necessary knowledge, skills, and other qualities. I'd like to discuss these steps, but can't do it in a short column. I will cover only two general principles:

• Commit enough resources to developing yourself.
You can't develop yourself fully without committing serious money and time. Buy books and DVDs, and if you have very ambitious objectives, hire a coach. Then make sure you get the full value for your money by spending a lot of time studying and discussing poker, and working on your personal weaknesses.

Most players are more willing to work on skills and knowledge than on their personal weaknesses. It's a reasonable choice. If you don't know how to play, you can't possibly win. However, if you have good knowledge and skills but are dissatisfied with your results, you should work on the personal weaknesses that are causing your problems.

You also should sacrifice some EV (expected value) by playing against tough players. Playing only in soft games will increase your immediate win rate, but will prevent you from reaching your full potential. If your goals are ambitious, you should occasionally play in games that are so tough that you lose money. That notion sounds like heresy, but Matt Lessinger stated it in his very first Card Player column: "I have played in games in which my EV was very clearly negative … [they] were learning experiences, and thus well worth the sacrifice. I was willing to pay my 'tuition' in order to get schooled." ("Less is Back for More," Card Player, June 6, 2003; Vol. 16/No. 12)

• Make self-development part of your routine
Time is an extremely limited resource. There are only 24 hours in a day, and most of them are committed to sleeping, working, eating, family obligations, playing poker, and so on. Developing yourself may be left for "when I have time for it," which often means that it doesn't get done at all.

Commit yourself to spending enough time each week on all of the developmental activities: studying the literature, discussing hands and strategy, and working on your personal weaknesses. If you don't commit to doing all of these activities, some of them will be neglected, especially the ones you dislike doing. In general, the more you dislike a developmental activity, the more you need to do it. For example, who needs exercise more, the naturally active person or the couch potato?

Many professions demand that members take continuing education courses. You can't keep your license as a physician, attorney, or psychologist without those courses. The authorities in those fields know that many people won't develop themselves unless they are forced to do so.

Poker doesn't have any formal requirements, but it is much more demanding than most professions. You get tested every night, and you pay dearly for your mistakes. Barry Tanenbaum calls it a "ruthless meritocracy." You can make a good living as a mediocre physician, lawyer, or psychologist, but you can't make one as a poker pro unless you are very, very good.

Since poker is constantly changing, and some of your opponents are working hard on themselves, your alternatives are brutally simple: You must either continue to develop yourself or fall behind the competition.

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