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Overview

Intro
1
2
3
4
5

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Sheet 1: Intro

Hold'em Brain by King Yao
Bluffing Spreadsheet
This is a spreadsheet with five tabs providing Expected Value analysis on different types of bluff issues.
The results will vary depending on the assumptions. I like to think of the assumptions as the ability
to read hands, and the Expected Value formulas as the ability to use the read to your advantage mathematically.
Without the ability to read hands well, the Expected Value formulas would be useless. As they say,
with any formula, if you put garbage in, you get garbage out.
If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please email me at [e-mail]
Directory
Tab	Subject				Title
1	Bluffing on River when beaten				Should you bluff on the River if you are absolutely sure you are beat?
2	Bluffing on River with a chance to win				Should you bluff on the River if you still have a chance to win by checking?
3	Breakeven analyss of Bluffing				How often does your Bluff need to work for it to be a breakeven play?
4	Inducing a Bluff				Inducing a Bluff
5	Complex Scenario				A more complex scenario, bluffing & inducing a bluff

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Sheet 2: 1

Title: Should you bluff on the River if you are absolutely sure you are beat?
Assumptions:
Your are headsup, your opponent has checked and you are last to act on the River.
If you bet, your opponent will only call or fold, he will not raise. You are 100% sure he has a better hand than you.
Instructions:
Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue background are generated by
the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background
Variables
Big bets in the pot before you consider betting:					10
Percentage that your opponent will fold if you bet:					15%
Results
Expected Value of bluffing in terms of big bets:					0.65

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Sheet 3: 2

Title: Should you bluff on the River if you still have a chance to win by checking?
Assumptions:
Your are headsup, your opponent has checked and you are last to act on the River.
If you bet, your opponent will only call or fold, he will not raise. You are not entirely sure he has a better hand than you.
Instructions:
Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue background are generated by
the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background.
Variables
Big bets in the pot before you consider betting:					5
Percentage that you actually have the best hand					25%
If you have the worst hand, percentage your opponent will call a bet:					60%
If you have the best hand, percentage your opponent will call a bet:					0%
Results
Expected Value of Checking in terms of big bets					1.25
Expected Value of Betting in terms of big bets					2.30
Given the assumptions, is it better to Check or Bet?					Bet

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Sheet 4: 3

Title: How often does your Bluff need to work for it to be a breakeven play?
Assumptions:
Your are headsup, your opponent has checked and you are last to act on the River.
If you bet, your opponent will only call or fold, he will not raise.
Instructions:
Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue background are generated by
the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background.
Variables
Big bets in the pot before you consider betting or raising					5
Bets you must put in, 1 for a bet, 2 for a raise					1
Results
Frequency of the bluff working for the bluff to be a breakeven play:					16.7%

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Sheet 5: 4

Title: Inducing a Bluff
Assumptions: you are headsup on the River and you are first to act. You are 100% sure you have the best hand, but
you are not sure whether or not your opponent will call. You suspect he may be induced to bluff if you check.
Since we are assuming you are 100% sure you have the best hand, the pot size is irrelevant since you know it belongs,
to you, all that is important is maximizing the amount your opponent puts into the pot on the River.
Instructions:
Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue background are generated by
the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background.
Variables
He calls if you bet (assume he will never raise)				10%
He bets if you check				20%
He calls your raise if you check-raise				0%
Results
Expectancy of trying to induce a bluff:			0.20
Expectancy of betting:			0.10
Given these assumptions, you should:			Induce a Bluff

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Sheet 6: 5

Title: A more complex scenario, bluffing & inducing a bluff
Assumptions: you are headsup on the River with A3 and a board of AJ872 and you are first to act. There is a chance
that you have the best hand, but also a chance you have the worst hand. If you bet, a better hand by your opponent
will call more often than a worse hand. If you check, your opponent may bet even if he has a worse hand.
Instructions:
Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue background are generated
by the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background.
Variables
Pot Size				5
You have the best hand				70%
He calls if you bet and you win				30%
He calls if you bet and you lose				10%
He bets when you check and you win				20%
He bets when you check and you lose				30%
You will call your opponent if you check and he bets				100%
Results
Expectancy of checking and calling			3.65
Expectancy of betting			5.03
Given these assumptions, you should:			Bet
Work
You bet, get called and you win					21.0%	6
You bet, get called and you lose					3.0%	-1
You bet and do not get called when you do not have the best hand					27.0%	5
You bet and do not get called when you do have the best hand					49.0%	5
					Probability	Win
You check and your opponent bets when he is best and you call					6%	-1
You check and your opponent bets when he is best and you fold					0%	0
You check and your opponent bets when he is worst and you call					21%	6
You check and your opponent bets when he is worst and you fold					0%	-5
You check and your opponent cheks when he is best					24%	0
You check and your opponent checks when he is worst					49%	5