| Hold'em Brain by King Yao | |||||
| Semi-Bluffing Spreadsheet | |||||
| This is a spreadsheet with three tabs providing Expected Value analysis on different types of semi-bluffing issues. | |||||
| The results will vary depending on the assumptions. I like to think of the assumptions as the ability | |||||
| to read hands, and the Expected Value formulas as the ability to use the read to your advantage mathematically. | |||||
| Without the ability to read hands well, the Expected Value formulas would be useless. As they say, | |||||
| with any formula, if you put garbage in, you get garbage out. | |||||
| If you have any questions, comments or suggestions, please email me at KingYao@HoldemBrain.com | |||||
| Directory | |||||
| Tab | Subject | Title | |||
| 1 | Semi-Bluff Raising on the Turn | How often does your semi-bluff need to work for it to be a breakeven play? | |||
| 2 | Free Card Raise versus Passive Players | When is a Flush Draw Free Card raise worth a play? (opponent is passive) | |||
| 3 | Free Card Raise versus Aggressive Players | When is a Flush Draw Free Card raise worth a play? (opponent can be aggressive) |
| Title: How often does your semi-bluff need to work for it to be a breakeven play? | |||||
| Assumptions: | |||||
| You hold AsKs, on the Turn, the board is Js-5c-6d-Qs. Your opponent has Jc-9c. | |||||
| Instructions: | |||||
| Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue background are generated by | |||||
| the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background. | |||||
| Big bets in the pot AFTER the opponent bets into you: | 6 | ||||
| Outs, the number of cards you can catch to win: | 18 | ||||
| Non-Outs, the number of cards that won't help you | 26 | ||||
| If you call, how often will your opponent call you on the River if you make your hand? | 50% | ||||
| If you raise, how often will your opponent fold on the Turn | 20% | ||||
| If you raise and your opponent calls on the Turn, how often will he call on the River when you make your hand? | 0% | ||||
| Expected Value of Calling on the Turn | 2.07 | ||||
| Expected Value of Semi-Bluffing on the Turn | 2.55 | ||||
| Given these assumptions, should you Call or Raise? | Raise | ||||
| Work | |||||
| Percentage you catch | 0.409090909090909 | ||||
| Percentage you do not catch | 0.590909090909091 |
| Title: When is a Flush Draw Free Card raise worth a play? (opponent is passive) | |||||
| Assumptions: | |||||
| You hold As9s and are in last position. You have one opponent with a Flop of Qs8s5c. If you raise, you will not get raised back, | |||||
| he will call your raise and check to you regardless of what hits the Turn. On the River, he will check and call no matter what card comes, | |||||
| so you can not bluff. You assume your only outs are the flush outs, and an Ace is not an out for your hand. If you just call on the Flop, he | |||||
| will bet again on the Turn if your Flush does not come, but he will check if it does | |||||
| Instructions: | |||||
| Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue background are generated by | |||||
| the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background. | |||||
| Big bets in the pot AFTER the opponent bets into you: | 3.5 | ||||
| Outs : Flush outs | 9 | ||||
| Non-Outs, the number of cards that won't help you (assuming no idea of other players hands) | 41 | ||||
| You hit your Flush on the Turn | 18.0% | ||||
| You do not hit your Flush on the Turn, you hit it on the River | 15.1% | ||||
| You do not hit your Flush at all | 66.9% | ||||
| Amount you win if you call on the Flop and hit the Flush on the Turn, and he calls your Turn and River bets | 5.5 | ||||
| Amount you win if you call on the Flop and call on the Turn and hit the Flush on the River, and he calls | 5.5 | ||||
| Amount you lose if you call on the Flop and call on the Turn, and fold on the River when no Flush comes | -1.5 | ||||
| Amount you win if you raise and hit the Flush on the Turn, and he calls your Turn and River bets | 6.0 | ||||
| Amount you win if you raise and hit the Flush on the River, and he calls your River bet (it is checked on the Turn) | 5.0 | ||||
| Amount you lose if you raise and you do not hit your Flush at all | -1.0 | ||||
| Expected Value of Calling on Flop | 0.81 | ||||
| Expected Value of Raising on the Flop | 1.16 | ||||
| Given these assumptions, should you Call or Raise? | Raise |
| Title: When is a Flush Draw Free Card raise worth a play? (opponent can be aggressive) | |||||
| Assumptions: | |||||
| You hold As9s and are in last position. You have one opponent with a Flop of Qs8s5c. If you raise on the Flop, you will not get raised back, | |||||
| he will call your raise. However, if a Flush card does not come on the Turn, HE MAY BET OUT. On the River, he will check and call no matter | |||||
| what card comes so you can not bluff. You assume your only outs are the flush outs, and an Ace is not an out for your hand. If you just | |||||
| on the Flop, he will bet again on the Turn if your Flush does not come, but he will check if it does | |||||
| Instructions: | |||||
| Type in the variables that have a yellow/cream background, the numbers with a green/blue background are generated by | |||||
| the spreadsheet from the variables in the yellow background. | |||||
| Big bets in the pot AFTER the opponent bets into you: | 3.5 | ||||
| Outs : Flush outs | 9 | ||||
| Non-Outs, the number of cards that won't help you (assuming no idea of other players hands) | 41 | ||||
| Percentage that your opponent will bet on the Turn if no Flush comes | 68% | ||||
| You hit your Flush on the Turn | 18.0% | ||||
| You do not hit your Flush on the Turn, you hit it on the River | 15.1% | ||||
| You do not hit your Flush at all | 66.9% | ||||
| Amount you win if you call on the Flop and hit the Flush on the Turn, and he calls your Turn and River bets | 5.5 | ||||
| Amount you win if you call on the Flop and call on the Turn and hit the Flush on the River, and he calls | 5.5 | ||||
| Amount you lose if you call on the Flop and call on the Turn, and fold on the River when no Flush comes | -1.5 | ||||
| Amount you win if you raise and hit the Flush on the Turn, and he calls your Turn and River bets | 6.0 | ||||
| Amount you win if you raise and hit the Flush on the River, and he calls your River bet (it is checked on the Turn) | 5.0 | ||||
| Amount you win if you raise and hit the Flush on the River, but had to call a bet on the Turn | 6.0 | ||||
| Amount you lose if you raise and you do not hit your Flush at all, and he bet on the Turn | -2.0 | ||||
| Amount you lose if you raise and you do not hit your Flush at all, and he checked on the Turn | -1.0 | ||||
| Expected Value of Calling on Flop | 0.81 | ||||
| Expected Value of Raising on the Flop | 0.81 | ||||
| Given these assumptions, should you Call or Raise? | Call |