us cdc swine flu 20 may 2009

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Director’s Update Brief

Wednesday

20 May 2009 1100 EDT

Day 32

Day of Supplemental

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Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Key Events

20 May 2009

Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Declarations

WHO: Pandemic Phase 5 (29 Apr 1600 EDT)
USG: Public Health Emergency declared (26 Apr 2009)

SLTT Declarations: 11

CA, TX, WI, FL, NE, VA, MD, IA, OH, American Samoa,

ME

US Cases:

Deployments: 66 deployed, 5 pending, 207 potential

New countries with confirmed cases: Greece

Laboratory: 44 states validated: 9 states with multiple sites; 582
genes have been sequenced

Cases

Hosp

Deaths

5710

247

8

48

35

5

US TOTAL States

Affected INCL DC

Total Confimed and

Probable

US TOTAL Cases

INCL DC

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Epidemiology/Surveillance

Confirmed and Probable Novel Influenza A (H1N1)

Cases By Onset Date* and Report Date as of 20 May 2009 1100 EDT

0

100

200

300

400

500

28

-Ma

r

30

-M

ar

1-A

pr

3-A

pr

5-A

pr

7-A

pr

9-A

pr

11

-A

pr

13

-A

pr

15

-A

pr

17

-A

pr

19

-A

pr

21

-A

pr

23

-A

pr

25

-A

pr

27

-A

pr

29

-A

pr

1-M

ay

3-M

ay

5-M

ay

7-M

ay

9-M

ay

11

-M

ay

13

-M

ay

15

-M

ay

17

-Ma

y

19

-M

ay

D

Date of Illness onset

lness Onset

N

o

.

o

f

C

a

s

e

s

Onset Date (n=1,632)

Report Date (n=5,605)

*Information on onset date no longer presented after May 12 due to change to aggregate reporting

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Epidemiology/Surveillance

Novel Influenza A (H1N1) - 20 May 2009 1100 EDT

Selected Underlying Conditions

Persons Hospitalized with H1N1, 2009

6 (6%)

Obesity

4 (4%)

Chronic Renal Disease

7 (8%)

Pregnant

10 (11%)

Chronic cardiovascular disease

11 (12%)

Immunocompromised

14 (15%)

Diabetes

3 (3%)

Cancer

37 (40%)

Asthma or COPD

No. (%)

Condition

66 (71%) of hospitalized patients had an underlying chronic condition

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200-400

51-200

1-50

0

>400

Epidemiology/Surveillance

Number of cases of H1N1 reported to CDC by state

as of 17:30 EDT on 19 May 2009 (n=5710)

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Epidemiology/Surveillance

Novel Influenza A (H1N1) - 20 May 2009 1100 EDT

Age of Persons Hospitalized with H1N1, 2009 n=164

18

16

18

29

61

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0-23 mos.

2-4 Yrs

5-9 Yrs

10-18 Yrs 19-49 Yrs

≥50 Yrs

Age

N

u

m

b

e

r

o

f

C

a

s

e

s

11%

10%

11%

18%

37%

13%

Median Age = 19 years

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Epidemiology/Surveillance

Novel Influenza A (H1N1) - 20 May 2009 1100 EDT

Antiviral and Antimicrobial Usage

Persons Hospitalized with H1N1, 2009

63/88 (60%) treated with antivirals

– Median time from illness onset to antiviral initiation 4 days

(1-25 days)

– Median time from admission to antiviral initiation 1 day

(6-13 days)

70 (75%) treated with antibiotics

– 100% initiated on day of admission

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Epidemiology/Surveillance

Novel Influenza A (H1N1) - 20 May 2009 1100 EDT

Indicators of Severity

Persons Hospitalized with H1N1

26/118 (22%) were admitted to the ICU

– 13 (50%) required mechanical ventilation

– 9 had ARDS

– Median age of ICU patients (n=23)

23 years (1 month-86 yrs)

– Median length of ICU stay (n=14)

9 days (2-34 days)

– Time from onset to ICU admit (n=13)

6 days (2-14 days)

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Epidemiology/Surveillance

Current Influenza Surveillance, 20 May 2009 1100 EDT

These data are considered provisional and preliminary and will not be officially released by the CDC until 1100 EDT.

WHO/NREVSS Collaborating Laboratories

(graph as of

5/19/2009)

– Seasonal influenza A (H1), A (H3), and B viruses co-

circulated with novel influenza A (H1N1) viruses

Influenza-associated Pediatric Deaths

– No new influenza-associated pediatric death were reported
– 2008-09 season total = 61

ILINet

– During week ending 5/16/2009, the percentage of ILI

outpatient visits was below the national baseline

– Overall, the percentage of outpatient visits for ILI remains

stable, based upon daily ILI reports from the US Outpatient
Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet)

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122 Cities Mortality Reporting System (graph as of 5/19/2009)

– As weekly mortality reports continue to be received at CDC for

week ending 5/9/2009, the percentage of pneumonia and influenza
deaths is not expected to be significantly elevated

– Percentage of deaths due to pneumonia and influenza remains

stable, based upon daily mortality reports from the 122 Cities
Mortality Reporting System

Geographic Spread of Influenza as Assessed by State and
Territorial Epidemiologists

– The influenza activity reported by state and territorial

epidemiologists indicates geographic spread of both seasonal
influenza and novel influenza A (H1N1) viruses and does not
measure the severity of influenza activity.

– Eight states reported geographically widespread influenza activity,

14 states reported regional activity, the District of Columbia and 15
states reported local influenza activity; and 13 states reported
sporadic influenza activity.

Epidemiology/Surveillance

Current Influenza Surveillance, 20 May 2009 1100 EDT

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Percent of Specimens Positive for Influenza

Reported by WHO and NREVSS Labs:

Novel Influenza A(H1N1) vs. Seasonal Influenza, by Week

20 May 2009 1100 EDT

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24 2/

7

2/

21 3/

7

3/

21 4/

4

4/

18 5/

2

5/

16

5/

30

6/

13

6/

27

7/

11

7/

25 8/

8

8/

22

Week Ending Date

P

e

rc

e

n

t

P

o

s

it

iv

e

All Flu

Seasonal Flu

Novel Influenza A(H1N1)

Influenza % Positive

by Season (Week 18):

05-06: 8.70%
06-07: 6.75%
07-08: 4.38%

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NOTE: Week ending dates vary by influenza season

*Preliminary ILI data for week 19, as of May 19, 2009 (n=667 weekly ILI reports received from 47 states)

There was no week 53 during the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons, therefore the week 53 data point for those seasons is an average of weeks 52 and 1.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

2006-07†

2007-08†

2008-09

National Baseline

Epidemiology/Surveillance

Percentage of Visits for Influenza-like Illness (ILI) Reported by

the US Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet),

National Summary 2008-09 and Previous Two Seasons

20 May 2009 1100 EDT

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Region II - NJ, NY

0

2

4

6

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

Region III - DE, DC, MD, PA, VA, W V

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

Region I - CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT

0

1

2

3

4

5

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

NOTE: Scales differ between regions

NOTE: There was no week 53 during the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons, therefore the week 53 data point for those seasons is an average of weeks 52 and 1.

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

Baseline

Epidemiology/Surveillance

Current Influenza Surveillance – ILINet Regions I-III

20 May 2009 1100 EDT

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Region IV - AL, FL, GA, KY, MS, NC, SC, TN

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

Region V - IL, IN, MI, MN, OH, W I

0

2

4

6

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

Region VI - AR, LA, NM, OK, TX

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

NOTE: Scales differ between regions

NOTE: There was no week 53 during the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons, therefore the week 53 data point for those seasons is an average of weeks 52 and 1.

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

Baseline

Epidemiology/Surveillance

Current Influenza Surveillance – ILINet Regions IV-VI

20 May 2009 1100 EDT

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Region X - AK, ID, OR, WA

0

2

4

6

8

10

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

Region IX - AZ, CA, HI, NV

0

2

4

6

8

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

Region VIII - CO, MT, ND, SD, UT, WY

0

1

2

3

4

5

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

Region VII - IA, KS, MO, NE

0

2

4

6

8

10

/4

10

/1

8

11

/1

11

/1

5

11

/2

9

12

/1

3

12

/2

7

1/

10

1/

24

2/

7

2/

21

3/

7

3/

21

4/

4

4/

18

5/

2

5/

16

Week Ending Dates

%

o

f

V

is

it

s

f

o

r

IL

I

NOTE: Scales differ between regions

NOTE: There was no week 53 during the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons, therefore the week 53 data point for those seasons is an average of weeks 52 and 1.

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

Baseline

Epidemiology/Surveillance

Current Influenza Surveillance – ILINet Regions VII-X

20 May 2009 1100 EDT

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BioSense

% Patients Presenting With ILI as a Chief Complaint by Age

April 18-May 16, 2009

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BioSense

% Patients Presenting With ILI as a Chief Complaint by Age

April 18-May 16, 2009

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BioSense

% Patients Presenting With ILI as a Chief Complaint by Age

April 18-May 16, 2009

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Epidemiology/Surveillance - Percentage of Visits for ILI

NYC ED and Other ILINet Providers, 2008-09 and Previous Two Seasons

20 May 2009 1100 EDT

*Consists of 50 ED sites across NYC; An average of 19 sites reporting each week from across NYC of various practice types (Family Practice,
Pediatrics, Internal Medicine, and Student Health)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

20

06

40

20

06

44

20

06

48

20

06

52

20

07

04

20

07

08

20

07

12

20

07

16

20

07

20

20

07

24

20

07

28

20

07

32

20

07

36

20

07

40

20

07

44

20

07

48

20

07

52

20

08

04

20

08

08

20

08

12

20

08

16

20

08

20

20

08

24

20

08

28

20

08

32

20

08

36

20

08

40

20

08

44

20

08

48

20

08

52

20

09

03

20

09

07

20

09

11

20

09

15

20

09

19

Week

%

o

f

Vi

s

it

s

fo

r

IL

I

NYC ED Sites*

Other NYC Sites†

background image

In

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a

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O

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(F
IU

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)---F

o

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c

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n

ly

(

F

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)

N

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F

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N

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2

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IL

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2

0

0

8

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6

, 2

0

0

9

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0

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0

0

9

1

1

0

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T

0

5

0

0

1

0

0

0

1

5

0

0

2

0

0

0

2

5

0

0

10/4/2008

10/11/2008

10/18/2008

10/25/2008

11/1/2008

11/8/2008

11/15/2008

11/22/2008

11/29/2008

12/6/2008

12/13/2008

12/20/2008

12/27/2008

1/3/2009

1/10/2009

1/17/2009

1/24/2009

1/31/2009

2/7/2009

2/14/2009

2/21/2009

2/28/2009

3/7/2009

3/14/2009

3/21/2009

3/28/2009

4/4/2009

4/11/2009

4/18/2009

4/25/2009

5/2/2009

5/9/2009

5/16/2009

w

e

e

k

# ILI

A

g

e

0

-4

A

g

e

5

-2

4

A

g

e

2

5

-6

4

A

g

e

6

5

a

n

d

o

ld

e

r

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-Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU) 22

International

Novel Influenza A (H1N1) - 20 May 2009 1100 EDT

WHO global case count: 10,243 confirmed cases in 41 countries*

New countries with confirmed cases: Greece

Countries with highest confirmed case count after the US and

Mexico:

• Canada: 496 (=)

Japan: 210 ( 51)

• Spain: 107 ( 4)

UK: 102 ( 1)

Increases in case counts expected in countries receiving CDC PCR

kits as testing capabilities are improved

*Note: WHO case counts are current as of 05/20/09, 9:00 am EDT

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55,765

169,000

245,449

329,834

468,282

369,237

197,985

118,033

61,697

11,794

17,663

4,838

0

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

4/29 4/30 5/1

5/4

5/5

5/6

5/7

5/8 5/11 5/12 5/15 5/18 5/19

Date

N

u

m

b

e

r

o

f

S

tu

d

e

n

ts

Source: ED and CDC Confirmed School Closing Reports released each weekday at 2:00pm.

Division of Global Migration and Quarantine

Novel Influenza A (H1N1)

Students Dismissed by Date (ED as of 1400 EDT 19 May 2009)

19 May 2009: 24

schools closed due to

H1N1 in 5 states

NH, NY (n=18), PA, TX,

and WI.

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-Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU) 24

Communications Summary

Novel Influenza A (H1N1) - 20 May 2009 1100 EDT

Themes

• 2 deaths linked to H1N1: St. Louis man and 16-month old boy in NYC

• School closings in NYC

• WHO meeting vaccine development

–“proving much tougher than expected”; taking “longer than expected”; now “delayed”

• Nations urge WHO to change criteria, consider severity not just spread

Emerging Themes

• Controversy over change in school closing guidelines,

–NYC: “Guidelines did not call for that school to be closed and public is upset…school

should have been closed sooner”

–Schools across the country continue to close

–Strong local reaction to deaths in the community: NYC hospitals -- seeing hundreds

more people than usual

1,216,785

547,371

512,254

927,305

Web

189

212

114

109

News Stories Print/Internet

510

178

188

380

Public Inquiries

5/19 Tue

5/18 Mon

5/17 Sun

5/16 Sat

Channel Traffic


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