The Majimbo Debate
The current Majimbo debate provides our side with an opportunity to help expose the double sided Raila and his team at ODM as a threat to the stability of Kenya by escalating the debate in the media.
This is informed by a key insight on public opinion and coverage of controversial issues in the mass media. It is based on work undertaken by American communication and public opinion scholar in the 1980s mainly on scientific claims but with wide application on any complex issue debated publicly.
The basic principle is that when there is public discussion on a controversial issue that is covered by the mass media, the public is almost always likely to take a conservative position towards the issue. The key reason is that when an issue is complex, the ordinary person feels they lack ability to discern all key facts and takes a position that they consider safe - which means the conservative one. An example is the Wako draft which had many controversial issues that were legally complex. Or even the initial proposal to sell Kengen IPO through book building which though more beneficial to the market was complex for the public.
Taking into consideration that there are regions that support Majimbo, we need to escalate the debate with the objective of:
Demonstrating that the Government is already making progress on devolution through the CDF and other funds. So there is nothing new when they talk about devolution and decentralizing funds and planning.
Framing the ODM position as one of ethnic balkanization (and targeting the GEMA community) and one they will pursue if elected. Though they may deny this, we have strong proof points to show that Raila cannot be trusted. A good example is denying the claims that he made and repeated, when challenged to about drug money and laundering at the NSE.
Position MK as an elder statesman and the person best placed to help the country reach consensus on an issue that has been with us since independence as in his second and final term, he will have no vested interest on the issue.
Identify key controversial issues in the Bomas draft—abortion, inheritance by women and escalate them since ODM has said they will implement the draft within six months of coming to power.
Prof Allan Mazur, Syracuse University, New York