136 14&15b jpeg

Recent development

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on March 29 Solar wind speed ranged between 432 and 527 km/sec Another minor disturbance started just before midnight on March 28 and continued all day

Solar activity was very Iow. Solar flux was 100.3, the planetary A index was 17 (3-hour K indices: 4322 3443; Bouider K indices: 4311 2443) Region 8183 will be departmg the visibl© disk on March 30 Region 8185 is decaymg but should still have both C and minor M class flaring potenłial Regtons 8188 and 8189 were quiet and stable. New region 81SO was numbered as it ca me into view near the southeast lirri>.

No flaring of interest was observed on March 29. The background x-ray flux is at the class B1-B2 ieve!

March 27: A long duration M2.4/3N flarę from region 8185 peakeć at 2227 UTC. A large and fast moving coronal mass ejection was cbserved in oonnection wrth this fiare Most of the materiał appeared in the Southwest quadrant, however. some of it is likely to have been directed at earth. An impact from this coronal mass ejection could happen on March 30 or 31

No isolated coronal holes are currently visibie.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettied until the likely impact from a CME The impact time is uncertain the most likely interval is from łatę on March 30 until noon on the 31 st. In the case of a CME impact minor to severe storm levels can be expected. Long distance medium wave (AM) propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle łatrtudes is currently poor.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad It is based partly on my cwn observations and mterpretatons. and partly on data from Solar Terrestrial Dispatch (STD) Space Environment Center (SEC), NASA and Lockheed Martin. The report is updated once a day (except during times of interesting solar or geomagnetic activity when morę frequent updates are required).

Comments and suggestions are always welcome.