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Zróżnicowanie i wahania gospodarki regionów

n"/n

6) w

-prawdopodobieństwo przejścia konfiguracji społecznej / the probability of transition of a social configuration

od / from n do / to n ^a ,

7) P (n,t)    - prawdopodobieństwo, że konfiguracja społeczna « istnieje w cza

sie / / the probability that a social configuration n exists at time t

8) a

1 ab

9) k

-    parametr wyrażający preferencje w wyborze między postawą i oraz j / a parameter expressing a preference in the choice between attitude i and j

-    parametr wyrażający korzyści aglomeracji przy przejściu od postawy i do postawy j / a parameter expressing agglomeration economies on transition from attitude i to attitude j

RYSZARD DOMAŃSKI

DIFFERENCES AND FLUCTUATIONS IN THE ECONOMIES OF REGIONS. A SUPPLEMENT

TO THE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE THEORY OF AUGUST LOSCH

The article presents observations concerning the superimposition of business cycles upon structural changes in countries undergoing a systemie transformation. The case of Poland was investigated in statistical terms, and the results were further elaborated upon with the help of advanced statistical methods. The superimposition was found to occur using many indicators. It was clearly visible in the analysis of variation of the profitability index of enterprises. Figurę 1, whose shape resembles a beli, revealed four stages of the variation: (1) the stage of basie structural changes, (2) the stage of expansion in which the boom in the national and European economies was superimposed on the results of the initial impact of the reforms, (3) the point of inflection and the stage of contraction of the economy, and (4) the stage of a recession.

By elaborating on these observations, the author came to a theoretical conclusion that went beyond the discussion about the theory of A. Losch. Market mechanisms, as Losch proved, lead unavoidably from a uniform to a differentiated space (agglomerations, regions, hierarchies). The continuation of this reasoning using modern methods leads to the conclusion that the conseąuences of the differentiation are fluctuations in regional economies. Use was madę of methods (nonlinear and stochastic) offered by the version of synergetics published by W. Weidlich. Now we can add a new element to Losch’s theory: cyclicity. As a result of this supplementation, we obtain a tripartite model describing the transition from space uniformity to its diversity, and from diversity to cyclicity.