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CHAPTER II

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oUentelf and, therefore, the lnterests which are cared for by the political ephere. ⁵

Al 1 thls nade for a cultural and political cllaate unfayourable to the regulatory actlvlty of the State (whlle the deaand for transfer payaents, qulte obvlously, contlnued and Mas even relnfbrced by the deterioratlon of the econoalc and eaployaent situatlonj.

7 . T)>.e_ęqnceptyal ..iP^eIs_deyeioped_fpr_the_.neM_enyl ronaent

\

In thls sectlon Me Mili conslder brlefly hoa the econoilsts reacted to the challenges of the new envlroment descrlbed above. Theoretlcal thlnklng ls characterized by selectlve abstractlon. It ls of extrese.interest, thus , to exaalne the lenses through Mhlch the above scenarlo hasbeen consldered by lnfluentlal econoalc thought.

While before the early Seventles the conceptual fraaework of generał reference Mas baslcally unląue (the fix-price Keyneslan aodel), the folloalng period ls character1zed by a flourlshlng of apparently dlfferentiated    approaches: neo-

Keyneslan aodels, neo-aonetar ist aodels, generał equlllbrlua and ratlonal expectatlons • aodels. Besldes such 'key-stone theories*, there has been an extraordlnary developaent of ad hoc applled aodelllng, aostly econoaetrlc. Furtheraore, often the leadlng econoalsts belonglng to the 'noblest¹ schools recalled above, aanlfested thelr Influence wrltlng on the ordlnary press; In such cases, however, they tended to use ad hoc arguaents, ąulte far aaay froa thelr abstract theoretlcal thlnklng and closer to the eclectlc evldence accuaulated Mlthln the set of applled econoalc analyses.

In our 1986 Report, Me devoted auch attentlon to the aost laportant featurea Mhlch character 1zed the process of change, the trąnsitlon froa the old flx-prlce Keyneslan aodel to the nea set of leadlng aodels Mhlch declared theaselves as Insplred by the Keyneslan thought. Uslng the CEPS¹ lnfluentlal papers as a critlcal target. Me outllned the aaln turnlng pointę of the theoretlcal trąnsitlon and Me deaonstrated the antl-Keyneslan naturę of the finał results. Therefore, Me Mili not deal Mlth the lssue here. Howeyer, me Mili try here to outllne the blases In the relatlonshlps aodels/facts of the yarlous    approaches, Mlth    regard both to econoalc

Interpretatlon and pollcy orlentatlon.

Desplte alleged dlfferences, the aaln theoretlcal approaches have In coaaon, a nuaber of relevant featurea, the aost outstandlng of Mhlch ls that ln nonę of thea the International dlaenslon plays a cruclal role. We do not say, by thls, that such aodels do not alloa for taklng Into account International Interdependency; what Me say ls, slaply, that the International dlaenslon could lconstltute a coapl1catlon, or a coapletlon, of the aodel, but the perforaance of the aodel, Mhlch glyes account of the phenoaena upon Mhlch the Interest of the aodel ls focused, ls already entlrely deteralned by the structure of the relatlonshlps Mhlch styllze