9058009871

9058009871



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24


86230


N«o->onp t.a r 1 a t. appronchftu have the * aerlt o f hav1ng relntroduced In ncnnoalR annlyala a rnlev«nt rola for axpact.a 1.1 ona . Aa a wat. ter of fant., expec t. a 1.1 ona played a very apeclal role In the t.heory of Keynea; nnfort.iinat.ely poat-Keyneaian econowlat.a falled to acknowledge 11., and In t.he f1x-prlce t.rad1t.1on expect.at.1ona dld not play any relevant. role.

llnf ort.iinat.e 1 y , t.he neo-wone t.ar 1 a t. achool narrowa t.he acope of expect.at.1ona t.o thoae ahout. prlcea. Tf, aa we aald, fact.ora auch aa cowplex1t.y, lack of łnfnraatlnn and lincert.a 1 n ty, are t.he dowlnant. fent.urea of t.he preaent. env 1 ronwent., t.he fant. of Hwlt.lng t.he role of expect.at.1ona t.o'prlcea eonld not. allow t.o bul ld np any aat.1afact.ory explanat.1on of whnt. la happening.

Paradox 1 ca 1 1 y ennugh, expect.at.1ona do not play any relevant. role In t.he neo-Keynea 1 an aodel. Therefore, * the aourcea of Inflat. łon and of 1 ta dynaaiCR, are t.o be found ent. Irely In t.he v1doua aplral het.ween loney wegna and prlcea. The whole of the neo-Key nea 1 an point, can be reduced to t.he - fant. that. workera have loat. t.he    'glft.' of woney lllualon. Accordlng to

Keynea, In fant., t.he workera coiild only negot.1at.e about. noalnal wegna, but. were unable t.o ant npon real wagea; t.hla waa a fortunę frow a ayat.ealc point, of v1ew; alnce, due to 1t., Increaaea of t.he aggregat.e deaand conld prodiice »ore ewploywent and productlon, allowlng, 1f neceaaary in order to offaet. the effecta of dlalnlahlng return*, allght. Increaaea In prlcea (and t.herefore allght. decreaaea 1 n real wagea), wlt.hout. putt.lng Int.o aotlon a prl ce-wagea aplral.

Once t.he hypotheata about. t.he 1nah1l1t.y of workera t.o Influence t.he real wagea 1a renovad, and 1t. 1a t.herefore aaauwed t.hat. workera are able to bargaln about. real wagea, t.he only way    of expand1ng t.he    out.put    and t.he ewploywent.

appeara to . t.heae neo-Keynea 1 an ecnnoalata t.hat. of keeplng nnder control t.he level of nowlnal wagea. Hut. t.hla 1« exact.ly t.he t.arget. agalnat. whlch Keynea fonght. Tn t.hla aenae 1 t. la dlfflcult. to conalder t.heae econnwlat.a aa Keynealan.

There would be nothing at.range, however, 1n ajlaitting that. reallt.y haa changed, and that workera are now . able to negot.1at.e t.helr wagea In real t.erwa. However, 1t. would be 1nt.ereat.1ng, In t.hla caae, to explore the condlt.lona In whlch workera are able t.o do ao, and how the changea of auch condlt.lona would Influence 1t., The whole of neo-Keynea 1 an arguwenta waa developed nnder t.he Influence of a period durlng whlch    1 nduatr 1 a 1 1 aed econowtea    operated In t.he

prox1a1t.y of    fuli ewploywent.    heter    on, t.he eaployaent.

a1t.nnt.1on det.erlorat.ed heav11y, whlle, only part.ly aa a conaequence of t.hla, t.he at.rengt.h( of t.he iinlon decreaaed and t.he ' warket. power of workera dlwlnlahed. However, t.hla produced no feed-backa on the theoretlcal wodelHng.

Th1a odd phenowenon can be expla1ned qu1t.e eaally (and we dld 11.    1 n our 1986 Report.) aa a conaequence of hav1ng

att.r1but.ed a    pervaa1ve role    t.o t.he    pret.ended law of

dlwlnlahlng retlirna. Once 1 f. la naaimed, aa 11. la, t.hat. t.he



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