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CHAPTF.R TT

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The t.hftorftt 1cal    foundat. łona of rat. lonal expf ct.nt. Inna

theorlea can ha auaaar 1 zad aa foliowa. G1ven t.ha uncer t.a 1 n ty ahout. t.ha futura, aconoalc agenta have to fora axpact.a 11 ona fthout. 1t.. Tha t.radlt.lonal hypot.haaia of ratlonallt.y of aconoalc agant.a I a t.hua t.ranaforaad In auch a way aa to aaauaa t.hat. aach agent, haa a 'aodal' to fora hla own axpact. at 1 ona. However, alnca rat.lonallt.y la unłqua, paopla ahare tha aaaa 'beat.' aodal of tha aconoay (a generał aqu1l1hr1ua aodal wlt.h rat.lonal    expact.a1.1 ona ) .    Not    only    will    t.ha‘.agent. fora hla own

gueaaea ahout. . tha futura,    hut. ha can    do ao hacauaa ha knowa

t.hat. t.ha    ot.har amanta    hava    t.ha    aaaa    aodal and tha aaaa

guaaaaa.    F.acb ona will    t.han know    t.ha    futura hahav1oura of

ot.har agenta.

••

a

. Wbat. la >.1 aport.ant. 1a t.hat. paopla will hava axpact.at.1ona ahout. pollcy aakara. Tn ot.har worda, . elanent.ary aconoalc agenta know whlch would ha t.ha pollcy undart.akan hy aut.hor1t.1aa In g1van c 1 rcuaat.ancaa • and can, t.hua, adjnat. to t.haa In adyance . Howavar, th1a aaount.a to aay that. poi Idea hava lit.t.la acopa.

Th1a conclualon la auhat.ant. 1 a 1 1 y tha aaaa of t.hat. of t.ha nao-aonet.ar 1 at., alt.hough 11. could ha haaad on dlffarant. grounda. A allght. dlffaranca ax1at.a howavar. Whlla wlt.hln tha nno-aonat.ar 1 at. approach poi Idea ara not. only uaalaaa hut. - ara tha min raaponalhla for onr praaant d1aturhancea and av1la (and thla 1a tha t.rluaph of 'lalaaaz falre'), wlt.hln tha rat.lonal axpect.at.1ona fraaework t.hara 1a at.111 aoae roo* for pollcy aaklng; hut. tha only affeot.1ve pollcy would ha a 'anrprlae pollcy¹; t.hat. la, a pollcy orlglnal (and Irrat.lonal) anough t.o ha a aurprlaa for aconoalc agant.a, dlapladng t.hua t.halr (rat.lonal) axpac t.at. 1 ona . Tt. la 1nt.ii1t.1ve, anywny , that. t.hla aaount.a t.o a radleni narrowlng of t.ha acopa for aconoalc po 11cy aak1ng.

Thara 1a at.111 an laport.ant. dlffaranca hetween rat.lonal axpact.a1.1 ona conclualona ahout. pollcy and t.hoaa of t.ha neo-aonat.arlat approach. Wh11a 11. la true that. act.1va pollclaa ara ragardad hy t.ha lat.t.ar approach na belng not. only 1naffact.1ve hut. daaagfng, t.ha racoaianda1.1 on t.hat. t.ha nao-■ onet.nrl et.8 waka to t.ha innatary aiit.hor1t.faa ahout. t.ha naad of announdng a g1van rata of aonay axpana1on and to at.fck t.o t.hla announcaaan t., 1a, In Itaalf, a pollcy; a pollcy -notfee-that hfghly at.raaaaa t.ha prohlaa of cradlhllft.y on t.ha alda of pollcy authorltlaa. Whlle- dolng ao, avan 1f 1t. la hayond thalr acopa, nao-aonet.ar 1 a t.a    ara actually andlng up,

parado^ 1 ca l 1 y, wlt.h a naw klnd of pollcy, haaad un1qua1y upon a saaaaga of cart.alnty wlt.h. raapact. t.o aconoalc agant.a. Th1a point. 1a laport.ant. for u a,- alnca ona of our aa In pointa will ha ahout. t.ha naad t.hat. t.ha pollcy aakara aand cradlhla algnala t.o t.ha aconoalc agant.a.

We can now t.urn t.o t.ha aora het.erogeneona knowladga eona1.1 tut.ad by appllad aconoalca and aconoalc pollcy. A larga part. of 11. haa haan haav11y 1 nf 1 uancad * hy t.ha ahova racallad min t.hnornt.lcal llnaa. Th1a axpla1na why, alao hara, 1t 1a poaaihla t.o not.lce cart.aln racurrant. faeturea.