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CHAPTER TTT

30

86230

Ohv1onaly NI « N* >    N2. Therpfore wlt.h at.rat.egy 2 t.here is

uneap 1 oy went.:

U - N* - N2

2 •    J SD*_£2_12£!;.££:.n_.

Rtrątegy.

7n order to have a hlgher out pot. wlt.h at.rat.egy 2, in anoh a way that. t.he st.at.eaent. [1] could hołd, to have a high er produot1v1t.y asaodat.ed wlt.h 8uch at.rat.egy-1s not snffldent. The poRit.1ve prodnct. 1 v1 t.y d 1 fferen1.1 a 1 anst. he large enough to oompenaat.e for t.he faot. t.hat. less people are aot.ually worklng; In ot.her words t.hla d 1 f f er en 1.1 a 1 mnat he aoaeway proport.lonal to t.he level of unemp 1 oyaent. whloh la aaRociated wlt.h t.he most. prodnct. I ve at.rat.egy.

a

Very aiaple algehralc elahorat.lon of [1] allows to st.at.e a uch pro port. Inna 11 ty condl t ion:    'In order that t.he aoat.

prodnct. 1ve at.rat.egy 2 can produce a hlgher out.put, t.he product.1v1t.y aaaociat.ed wlth 1t. auat. exceed t.he prodnct. 1 v 1 ty aaaodat.ed wlt.h t.he less prodnct.1ve at.rat.egy 1 hy a proport.lon eqnal t.o t.he rat.lo het.ween t.he uneap 1 oyaent. and t.he eaployaent. aaaodat.ed wlt.h t.he aoat. prodnct.1ve at.rat.egy 2' (see append1x 1). Whloh almply aeana that, 1f t.he rat.lo het.ween t.hoae who are employed and t.he unemployeri onea produoed hy at.rat.egy 2 i s , for exaap)e, 10%, t.he average produot1v1t.y aaaodat.ed wlt.h t.he aoat. prodnct. 1ve at.rat.egy 2 ahonld exceed t.hat. aasociat. ed wlt.h t.he leaa product.i ve at.rat.egy 1 hy at. leaat. 10%.

Aa we sald earller, F.nropean government.s 'choae* , aronnd t.he a1d of t.he 70'a, t.ype 2 at.rat.pglea . As a non8equenne_x lahonr prodnct. 1v1 ty hegan t.o grow very rapidly, alaost. t.wioe as fast t.han, e.g., In USA, and nneaployaent. hegan to grow aa well. We are hound t.o suppoae t.hat., when each government. did t.hat. 'choinę', 1t. est.iaat.ed t.hat. t.he propor t. i ona 1 i t. y condl t.ion for preferring t.he most. prodnot.1ve at.rat.egy held. And perhapa government.s were right. at. t.he heglnning. But. how could we he surę t.hat. t.he preferahilit.y condl t. ion c on 1.1 n u e s t.o hołd t.rne? We almply cannot. .

What. auggest.s, anyway, that. a negat.1ve answer to t.he ahove q u es t.ion la iore llkely t.o he t.rue t.han a poalt. 1ve one Is t.he ohaervat. 1on that. not. only t.he level, hut also t.he rat.e, of linemployment., kept. growIng.

Aa a lat.ter of fact., t.he purely deaoript.ive (and haslcally t.aut.ological) 'Model¹ preaented ahove is t.oo slupie to nl Iow t.o deal wlt.h t.he fundamenta! 1y dynamie and anyway complex prohlena which are posed hy t.he cholce of st.rat.egles whioh put. o u r connt.rles along a compet.1t.1ve 'pat.h', and t.herefore many furt.her eona Idera tlona ahould he developed; hut. t.he model has t.he advant.age of helng very elear, and t.herefore we will eon t. Inne to uae 1 t, at least. for t.he moment..