Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENERGY RESEARCH

Melih Soner Celiktas

and Gunnur Kocar

EBILTEM, Ege University Science and Technology Research Center, Izmir, Turkey

Solar Energy Institute of Ege University, Izmir, Turkey

SUMMARY

The Turkish wind energy industry is one of the most competitive and fastest growing industries in the energy
sector. Industrial energy demands, Kyoto agreement and carbon trade are shown as probable causes. Currently,
Turkey has a total installed capacity of about 48.5 GW for electricity from all energy sources. High energy prices
and unstable suppliers have stimulated Turkey’s growing interest in wind business and wind power. This paper
analyzes Turkey’s wind energy future perspective and power generation strategy with a view to explaining Delphi
approach to wind energy development. In this study, the two-round Delphi survey was conducted by experts to
determine and measure the expectations of the sector representatives through online surveys where a total of
70 experts responded from 24 different locations. The majority of the Delphi survey respondents were from
23 different universities (60%), electricity generation industries (21%), two different governmental organizations
(11%), nongovernmental organizations (6%) and other institutions (2%). The article discusses not only the expert
sights on wind energy technology but also all bibliometrical approaches. The results showed that Turkey’s wind
power installed capacity is expected to exceed 40 GW by the end of the 2020 s and in the middle of the 2030 s, and
Turkey would be the European leading country in the ﬁeld of electricity generation from the wind. Copyright r
2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

KEY WORDS

wind energy; technology foresight; market penetration; Delphi survey; lead markets

Correspondence

*Melih Soner Celiktas, EBILTEM, Ege University Science and Technology Research Center, Izmir, Turkey.

E-mail: soner.celiktas@ege.edu.tr

Received 20 January 2010; Revised 11 January 2011; Accepted 11 January 2011

1. INTRODUCTION

In a short time span, wind energy is welcomed by the
society, industry and politics as a clean, practical,
economical

and

environmental-friendly

alternative.

After the 1973 oil crisis, the renewable energy sources
started to appear in the agenda and hence the wind
energy gained signiﬁcant interest. As a result, wind
energy has recently been applied in various industries,
and it started to compete with other energy resources [1].

There is a considerable progress in the wind power

industry over the last decade in the world. The wind
energy technology has established a sound technical
feasibility and is therefore one of the promising
renewable energy sources. Wind power technology is
experiencing a major growth especially in United
States, Europe and with signiﬁcant growth in deve-
loping countries such as China and India. Besides the
industrial application success, many researchers [2–8]
have made signiﬁcant contributions to the wind energy
technology. Moreover, past, present and future develop-
ment of wind energy is very well summarized by [9]

during the 4th European and African Conference on
Wind Engineering.

According to World Wind Energy Association

(WWEA), world total installed capacity expected to be
approximately 160 GW for 2009 and 200 GW for 2010.
WWEA reported that the top ranked ﬁve countries of
the wind power market were USA, China, Germany,
Spain and India and their installed capacities of
wind power were respectively 35 159 MW (22.1%),
26 010 MW (16.3%), 25 777 MW (16.2%), 19 149 MW
(12.0%), 10 925 MW (6.9%) and rest of the world
installed capacity was 42 193 MW (26.3%). According
to the same report, the highest growth rates of the year
2009 with more than 100% could be found in Mexico
which quadrupled its installed capacity, once again
in Turkey (132%) which had the highest rate in the
previous year, in China (113%) as well as in Morocco
(104%) [10].

Turkey is a fast growing and very interesting energy

market with a strong dependency on external energy
supplies, which is forcing Turkey to focus on alternative
forms of energy. Among other renewable resources,

Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:

–

Published online 14 February 2011 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com). DOI: 10.1002/er.1829

737 748

737

wind has been the most popular and most accessible
power source in the last four years. In 2005, the total
installed capacity in Turkey was 20.1 MW generated by
34 turbines. With the introduction of the ﬁrst Law on
Renewable Energy Resources in 2005 by the Turkish
Parliament, the market more than doubled in 2006 by
reaching 50 MW, then tripled to 147 MW by the end of
2007 [11]. Currently, licensed wind power plant has
reached 727.45 MW at the end of the 2009 [12] and is
expected to reach 1500 MW by the end of 2010.

Recent years have seen the start of a wind energy

boom in Turkey. Following a call for tender at the end
of 2007, a record number of 751 projects were received
by the Electricity Market Regulatory Authority
(EMRA) in one day, totaling 78 GW. Since then,
EMRA has issued about 5000 MW worth of licenses
for wind energy generation [13].

The aim of this study was to identify the most im-

portant wind technology and research priorities likely
to be demanded by the Turkish energy industry and
contribute to the achievement of strategic goals in the
wind energy sub sectors vital for the national wealth
creation, environmental effect and improvement of
the quality and security of life. On the other hand, the
intention of the study was to describe trends in the
development of wind energy technology and to bring
out research and development needs in order to reach
the priorities identiﬁed in the wind energy technology.

2. METHODOLOGY

In previous studies, two different methods are used for a
multitude of purposes, including: Bibliometric analysis
[14] and the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and
Threats (SWOT) analysis [15] to provide raw data to
the two-round Delphi survey to be processed further.
Bibliometric analysis was conducted to ﬁnd out the
development trends of the scientiﬁc studies in the ﬁeld of
renewable energies in Turkey. In the SWOT analysis,
different information gathering strategies have been
applied for the analysis of Turkish wind energy
technology, market and policies. Delphi statements
were developed by using the results obtained from the
bibliometric and SWOT analyses. The Survey was thus
able to give a comprehensive view of the future of wind
energy technology from basic research to social impact
and from subjective and normative points of view to
objective and extrapolative perspectives.

The Delphi survey was composed of two sections,

where the ﬁrst section was designed to cover partici-
pants’ demographic properties and the second section
was dedicated to questioning of 19 Delphi statements.
The foresight period was ascertained as 40 years from
today to 2050.

The web-based questionnaire was developed and

designed using PHP and MySQL databases. The survey

was structured and functionally designed as a web-based,
ﬂexible, scalable, analogical and analyzable format,
which had a user-friendly interface. It was pre-tested by
some experts from Ege University. Subsequent to con-
siderable reﬁnements made to the survey tool, parti-
cularly to the navigational structures, the survey was
validated.

Some deﬁnitions used in structuring the Delphi

questionnaire and calculation methodologies were
given in our previous study [16].

The respondents were asked to assess which of the

following actions could promote an early occurrence
of the statement: Increase in basic R&D, Increase in
applied R&D, A well-qualiﬁed teaching workforce,
Fiscal measures (supports and incentives), Increase in
R&D supports and R&D infrastructure, International-
ization of R&D studies, Increase in University–
Industry–Government grid cooperation, Encourage
multidisciplinary studies, Legal arrangements (Adjust
relevant regulations, standards etc.), Increase social
awareness (Public acceptance) and Other.

Finally, all the outcomes of the Delphi survey were

evaluated using Access, Microsoft Excel and macros
software tools.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

This paper analyzes Turkey’s wind energy future
perspective and power generation strategy with a view
to explaining Delphi approach to wind energy develop-
ment. In this study, the two round Delphi survey was
conducted to experts to determine and measure the
expectations of the sector representatives through online
surveys. The list of experts was composed of represen-
tatives from industry, science and technology institutes,
academia and governmental authorities as well as
non-governmental organizations corresponding to all
Turkish renewable Energy experts. Subsequently, ﬁrst
and second round of Delphi study was carried out by
using online survey, among experts representing differ-
ent entities of the energy sector. Totally, 70 experts from
24 different locations participated in the whole Delphi
questionnaire process, which shaped out the future of
wind energies in Turkey. The majority of the Delphi
survey respondents were from 23 different universities
(60%), electricity generation sectors (21%), two differ-
ent governmental organizations (11%), nongovern-
mental organizations (6%) and other institutions (2%).
The respondents were classiﬁed into ﬁve different age
groups (Figure 1) and the gender distribution was
94.2% male and 5.8% female. A two-round Delphi
research study was undertaken to determine and
measure the expectations of the technology representa-
tives regarding foresight of wind energies.

The time of occurrence was evaluated on the data

from the ﬁrst and second round of the Delphi results,

Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey

M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar

Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737–748

2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DOI: 10.1002/er

738

which is presented in Figure 2. The Delphi statements
and their time of occurrence were assessed by all parti-
cipants. The number of the respondents and the dis-
tribution (%) were displayed on the left side of the
ﬁgure. The answers obtained in the second round and
experts for all those participants claiming to be either
experts, knowledgeable or at least familiar with the
topic were displayed on the right-hand side of the
ﬁgure. The bars indicate the statistical distribution of

the responses. The distribution gets narrower from the
ﬁrst to the second round, as intended with the Delphi
method, thus signifying a higher reliability of the
results. The shares of respondents evaluating the corres-
ponding statement to be totally unlikely and classiﬁed it
to happen never were displayed on the far right-hand
side of Figure 2.

Majority of the respondents believed that Turkey’s

wind power installed capacity has been expected to

Figure 1. Age classification of the Delphi survey participants.

Figure 2. The Delphi statements and their time of occurrence.

Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey

M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar

739

Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737–748

2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DOI: 10.1002/er

exceed 40 GW by around 2030 while some respondents
thought that this statement will never succeed.
Turkey’s primary energy sources include hard coal,
lignite, asphaltite, bituminuous schist, hydropower, oil,
natural gas, nuclear, geothermal, solar, wood, animal
and plant wastes. But, the level of primary energy
production in Turkey is very low. Due to the very
limited indigenous energy resources, Turkey has to
import nearly 73% of the energy from abroad to meet
the needs [17,18]. In other words, approximately three
fourth of the primary energy production of Turkey is
heavily dependent on imports.

Considering the development of wind energy gen-

eration in Turkey, wind electricity was ﬁrst obtained
from a wind turbine with a nominal 55 kW power built
in Cesme Altin Yunus Facilities in 1986 [19]. However,
the utilization of wind energy in Turkey has increased
since 1998 when the ﬁrst wind power plant with a total
capacity of 1.5 MW was installed. Up to date, Turkey
has about 724.15 MW wind power installed capacity in
operation and about 2626.65 MW under construction.
Also, license applications for a total capacity of
77 871.4 MW have been submitted to EMRA by pri-
vate developers as of November 2007 [20,21]. The
current production status of wind energy projects
in Turkey is approximately 3350 MW. The detailed
information about projects has been presented in
Table I.

Wind Energy—The Facts (WindFacts) is a European

project ﬁnanced by the Intelligent Energy—Europe
programme of the Executive Agency for Competitive-
ness and Innovation that runs from November 2007 to
October 2009. The ‘Wind Energy—The Facts’ publica-
tion is widely considered to be the most important wind
energy reference in the world. It presents a detailed
overview of the wind energy sector, with the most up-to-
date and in-depth information on the essential issues
concerning wind power today. According to Windfacts,
The 40 000 MW goal from the European Commission’s
White Paper formed EWEA’s target in 1997, but three
years later, due to the strong developments in the
German, Spanish and Danish markets for wind tur-
bines, EWEA increased its target by 50% to 60 000 MW
by 2010 and 150 000 MW by 2020. In 2003, EWEA
once again increased its target, this time by 25% to
75 000 MW by 2010 and 180 000 MW by 2020. Due to
the expansion of the EU with 12 new Member States,
EWEA has now increased its prediction for 2010 to
80 000 MW, while maintaining its 2020 target of
180 000 MW and setting a target of 300 000 MW by
2030 [22].

The ratio of the electric power produced via usage of

renewable resources except hydroelectricity in 2002 is
only 2% and intended to increase up to 6% until 2030. It
is expected that biomass and wind energy will have a
great effect in this increase. The objective is to increase
the wind energy up to 929 TWh with a rate of 3% of the
world electricity production in 2030, which was 1% in

2005. So the greatest increase is expected to be in the
wind energy production. This rate reached 20% in
Denmark, 6% in Germany for the year 2003 [23].
According to Delphi survey results, 5% of Turkish
electricity demand has been expected to be supplied by
the wind power by 2020. Experts seem more optimistic
than the other participants on the times of occurrence
for this statement. On the other hand, Turkey’s annual
theoretically available potential for wind power is cal-
culated to be more than 80 000 MW, about 10 000 MW
of which is also economically feasible. Turkey has the
highest share with 166 TW per year in technical wind
energy potential among European countries. However,
in total, Turkey is slightly above the world average in
terms of share of renewables in total primary energy
supply [21]. As of today, Turkey has almost 725 MW of
wind installed capacity, and by the end of 2010 it is
projected to reach 1500 MW—around 3.5% of the
country’s total energy capacity. In 2007, the Turkish
Electricity Survey and Development Administration
(EIE) developed the Turkish Wind Atlas, which served
as a big eye-opener to all types of investors. The Market
Authority EMRA has licensed around 90 projects con-
stituting 3350 MW of capacity. There have been almost
78 000 MW of license applications. Currently, the feed-in
tariff for renewables is limited to 5.5 ch kWh

. The

new proposed amendment to the law will offer better
price (could be 8 ch kWh

) for on land wind power

applications [24,25].

As in many developing and reforming countries,

Turkey’s electricity sector has been and continues to be
dominated by state-owned enterprises. Until recently,
most governments thought that electricity provision
was too economically and strategically important to be
left to the machinations of private enterprise and free
markets. Even today, after almost two decades of at-
tempts at reforming the sector, state ownership does
not fall below 60% in any part of the electricity value
chain [26]. In spite of this negative attitude, Turkey’s
electricity market is becoming more attractive for
investors after the liberalization steps such as some regu-
lations on the electricity market and given incentives.

According to the respondents there is a need to

standardized manufacturing and measurement methods
and tools. This standardization process could be com-
pleted by 2020s. Wind energy economy will require a
huge investment in new areas like measurement and
manufacturing standardization. The Delphi second
round results showed that the equipments fulﬁlling the
international standards are manufactured in Turkey
approximately in 2022.

According to the majority of experts, the key pro-

blem in Turkey is the lack of the wind turbine manu-
facturing facilities. All wind turbine technologies used
in the country are imported from abroad. The Delphi
respondents generally agree that the high efﬁciency
wind turbines will be manufactured in Turkey by
around 2022. More R&D activities are required to

Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey

M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar

Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737–748

2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DOI: 10.1002/er

740

Table I. Wind power plant projects in 2009 in Turkey.

Company name

Location

Region of

Turkey

Capacity

(MWe)

License period

(yil year

)

Capacity

under cons.

(Mwe)

Capacity in

operation

(Mwe)

ABK A.S

Aydın

Aegean

ABK A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Akhisar Ltd.S

-ti.

Manisa

Aegean

43.75

Aktepe A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Alize A.S

Manisa

Aegean

25.6

Alize A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

1.5

Ayen A.S

Aydın

Aegean

31.5

Ayen A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

30.75

Ayen A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Baltepe A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Bergama A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Bilgin A.S

Manisa

Aegean

- alık Ltd. S-ti.

I˙zmir

Aegean

- alık Ltd. S-ti.

I˙zmir

Aegean

Dares A.S

Mugˇla

Aegean

28.8

Deniz Ltd.S

-ti.

Manisa

Aegean

10.8

Dogˇal A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Dogˇal A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Dogˇal A.S

Manisa

Aegean

34.2

Doruk A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Egenda A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

13.8

Egenda A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Egenda A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Egenda A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

10.8

Garet A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Hassas A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

I˙nnores Ltd. S

-ti.

I˙zmir

Aegean

42.5

Kardemir Ltd.S

-ti.

I˙zmir

Aegean

Kores A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Lodos A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

120

Mare A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

39.2

Mazı-3 A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

22.5

Ortan A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

16.25

Sabas

- A.S-.

Aydın

Aegean

Soma A.S

Manisa

Aegean

140.8

106.6

34.2

So¨ke Ltd.S

-ti.

-ak

Aegean

¨ c

-gen A.S-.

I˙zmir

Aegean

¨ topya A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Yapısan A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

49.5

Yaylako¨y A.S

I˙zmir

Aegean

Total of Aegean Region

1311.25

1051.05

260.2

Baktepe A.S

Amasya

Black Sea

PEM Ltd.S

-ti.

Tokat

Black Sea

40.5

RSH Ltd.S

-ti.

- orum

Black Sea

Total of Black Sea Region

124.5

Aksu A.S

Kayseri

Central Anatolia

AL-YEL A.S

Kırs

-ehir

Central Anatolia

150

Can A.S

Bilecik

Central Anatolia

ES-YEL Ltd. S

-ti.

Konya

Central Anatolia

Total of Central Anatolia Region

311

Akenerji A.S

Balıkesir

Marmara

Alenka Ltd. S

-ti.

Kırklareli

Marmara

Alenka Ltd. S

-ti.

Tekirdagˇ

Marmara

Alenka Ltd. S

-ti.

Bandırma

Marmara

Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey

M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar

741

Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737–748

2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DOI: 10.1002/er

solve problems linked with wind manufacturing. On
the other hand, the regulation on the support for
electricity generated from the wind will be regulated or
adopted and entered into force.

The generalized use of wind turbines as a source of

electricity in the future will probably depend more
upon the costs of other electricity generating options
and public reaction to their environmental impacts

Table I. Continued.

Company name

Location

Region of

Turkey

Capacity

(MWe)

License period

(yil year

)

Capacity

under cons.

(Mwe)

Capacity in

operation

(Mwe)

Alenka Ltd. S

-ti.

Tekirdagˇ

Marmara

4.5

Alentek Ltd.S

-ti.

Balıkesir

Marmara

Alize A.S

Tekirdagˇ

Marmara

28.8

Alize A.S

- anakkale Marmara

20.8

Alize A.S

Balıkesir

Marmara

Alize A.S

Balıkesir

Marmara

Anemon A.S

- anakkale Marmara

30.4

As Makinsan A.S

Balıkesir

Marmara

Ayres Ltd. S

-ti.

- anakkale Marmara

Baki Ltd. S

-ti.

Balıkesir

Marmara

Balıkesir Ltd. S

-ti.

Balıkesir

Marmara

Bares A.S

Balıkesir

Marmara

142.5

112.5

Borasco A.S

Balıkesir

Marmara

Boreas Ltd. S

-ti.

Edirne

Marmara

Dogˇal A.S

- anakkale Marmara

14.9

Enerjisa A.S

- anakkale Marmara

Ertu¨rk A.S

I˙stanbul

Marmara

Galata Ltd. S

-ti.

Balıkesir

Marmara

Garet A.S

- anakkale Marmara

22.5

Kapıdagˇ A.S

Balıkesir

Marmara

34.85

43.85

Lodos A.S

I˙stanbul

Marmara

Poyraz A.S

Balıkesir

Marmara

54.9

SUNJU

¨ T A.S

I˙stanbul

Marmara

1.2

Teperes A.S

I˙stanbul

Marmara

0.85

Yalova Ltd.S

-ti.

Yalova

Marmara

Yapısan A.S

Balıkesir

Marmara

Total of Marmara Region

996.2

605.25

390.95

Akdeniz A.S

Mersin

Mediterranean

Aksa A.S

Hatay

Mediterranean

Alenka Ltd. S

-ti.

Hatay

Mediterranean

Alenka Ltd. S

-ti.

Hatay

Mediterranean

13.5

Bakras Ltd. S

-ti.

Hatay

Mediterranean

Belen A.S

Hatay

Mediterranean

Deniz Ltd.S

-ti.

Hatay

Mediterranean

Ere A.S

Mersin

Mediterranean

Ezse Ltd.S

-ti.

Hatay

Mediterranean

35.1

Ezse Ltd.S

-ti.

Hatay

Mediterranean

22.5

Paren A.S

Hatay

Mediterranean

Rotor A.S

Osmaniye Mediterranean

Rotor A.S

Osmaniye Mediterranean

Rotor A.S

Osmaniye Mediterranean

135

100

Total of Marmara Region

565.1

492.1

Kahta A.S

Adıyaman Sautheast Anatolia

42.75

Total of Southeast

Anatolia Region

543.85

470.85

Total

3350.8

2626.65

724.15

Source:

http://www.epdk.org.tr/lisans/elektrik/lisansdatabase/verilentesistipi.asp, retrieved 04.02.2009.

Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey

M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar

Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737–748

2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DOI: 10.1002/er

742

than on further improvement of wind turbine techno-
logy itself, which is already quite advanced and mature.
Nevertheless, there are still few technological advance-
ments that would further improve the potential of wind
power [27].

Operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for onshore

wind energy are generally estimated to be around 1.2 to
1.5 ch kWh

of wind power produced over the total

lifetime of a turbine. Spanish data indicates that less
than 60% of this amount goes strictly to the O&M of
the turbine and installations, with the rest equally dis-
tributed between labour costs and spare parts. The re-
maining 40% is split equally between insurance, land
rental and overheads. The costs range from approxi-
mately 7–10 ch kWh

at sites with low average wind

speeds, to approximately 5–6.5 ch kWh

at windy

coastal sites, with an average of approximately
7 ch kWh

at a wind site with average wind speeds [28].

The Delphi participants indicated that a strong

R&D was needed for both basic and applied wind
turbine research to cut costs and acquire know-how.
According to the respondents, especially low rpm
generators should be developed to eliminate gearbox
assemblies in turbines. Experts are more optimistic
than other respondents for concerning the statement
times of occurrence. According to the comments of
Eurendel report [29], if the expected time of occurrence
of a certain technology are a proxy of its likelihood to
occur, it means that the probability of receiving the
outcomes of the energy R&D investments should be
higher than it is currently thought.

On the other hand, respondents pointed out that the

commercial application of 10 MW class wind power
generation system was expected by around 2025 or
even later as a result of R&D studies.

Depending on last decade developments [28],

respondents expected 50% reduction in wind energy
generation costs per kWh. All these realized develop-
ments were foresighted from 2020 to 2030. Considering
the expectations for cost reduction of wind energy
generation in Europe, 15–25% for onshore and
20–30% for off shore wind by around 2020 were
reported [29].

Another generated result from the Delphi was

that Turkey should be at the forefront of the European
countries

for

utilizing

the

wind

energy

nearby

2038. This, however, was not conﬁrmed by the all
respondents.

Actions needed were evaluated on the basis of the

Delphi results for all statements (Table II). The four
items with the highest degree of consensus among
the respondents were ‘Development of R&D infra-
structure’, ‘Increase in Applied R&D and Innovation’,
‘Fiscal approaches (incentives, tax regulations etc.)’
and

‘Strengthened

industry–academic–government

collaboration’ has been pointed out by few respon-
dents. According to these results, research efforts,
R&D infrastructure, innovative and ﬁscal approaches,

international

collaboration,

interrelationship

and,

standards and regulations must be increased at least on
the world level in order to play a major role in the wind
energy league by 2040; otherwise the time frame will
not be realistic. The recommended actions are a little
bit different from each other. According to experts’
opinions, installed capacity increase was needed to
renovation of standards and regulations. High efﬁ-
ciency wind turbines manufacturing were expected to
strengthen industry–academic–government collabora-
tions. Other recommended actions for developing the
wind energy technology were quite similar with almost
all the statements concerning research and develop-
ment

infrastructure

and

R&D

application.

The

following statements, ‘Increase in Basic R&D’, ‘Created
well-qualiﬁed labor force’, ‘Fiscal approaches’, ‘Inter-
nationalization of R&D activities’, ‘Supported inter-
disciplinary studies’ were backed by approximately 50%
of the respondents and likewise ‘Increase in social
awareness activities’ was recommended by 33%.

For each Delphi statement, the respondents were

asked to give an assessment of the impact it would have,
if the statement came true. Assessed was the impact on:
wealth creation, environment, quality of life and security
of supply. Wind energy technology was considered to be
overall the most beneﬁcial in the four areas. The state-
ments were ranked according to their impact on these
four impact measures. According to experts’ opinions,
the wind energy technology statements impact rankings
were shown in Table III. The evaluation of the impact
assessments of the eight Delphi statements was based on
an overall impact index calculation. The overall impact
index ranged from 1 for an adverse impact until 4 for a
highly beneﬁcial impact.

According to the overall impact index, the statement

namely ‘Turkey’s wind power installed capacity has
been expected to exceed 40 GW’ had a strong impact in
the ﬁrst and second round and the statement ‘Turkey is
at the forefront of the European countries for utilizing
the wind energy’ had the most signiﬁcant impact on
the wind energy systems. The top three statements
were generally rated similar across the four impact
measures. Similarly, the statement ‘Equipments ful-
ﬁlling international standards are manufactured in
Turkey’ received the minimum impact value as a result
of both the ﬁrst and second-round Delphi survey.
The statement ‘High efﬁciency wind turbines are
manufactured by the know-how created through
national technologies’ had a strong impact on wealth
creation. On the other hand, the statement ‘Turkey is
at the forefront of the European countries for utilizing
the wind energy’ had a strong impact on rest areas.

Finally, the degree of importance of the statements to

Turkey was reﬂected as a percentage breakdown of res-
pondents who indicated ‘high,’ ‘medium,’ ‘low’ or
‘unnecessary’. The evaluation of the degree of impor-
tance of the statements to Turkey of the eight Delphi
statements was based on an importance index calculation.

Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey

M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar

743

Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737–748

2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DOI: 10.1002/er

Table

II.

Comparison

actions

needed

enhance

the

Delphi

statements.

Actions

eeded

(%)

Statements

Increase

basic

R&D

Increase

applied

R&D

and

innova-

tion

Created

well-

qualified

labor

force

Fiscal

approaches

(incentives,

tax

regulations

tc.)

Development

R&D

infrastructure

Inter-

nationalization

R&D

activities

Strengthened

industry–

academic–

government

collaboration

Supported

interdisciplinary

studies

Renovation

Standards

and

regulations

Increase

social

aware-

ness

activities

thers

Turkish

electricity

demand

has

been

sup-

plied

the

wind

power

39.3

46.4

42.9

1.4

53.6

39.3

53.6

32.1

78.6

42.9

71.1

Low

RPM

generators

have

been

developed

eliminate

gearbox

assemblies

Turbines

59.1

81.8

36.4

0.0

81.8

59.1

54.5

45.5

36.4

27.3

4.5

Equipments

fulfilling

international

standards

are

manufactured

Turkey

57.7

53.8

2.3

73.1

57.7

65.4

53.8

46.2

23.1

7.7

High

efficiency

wind

tur-

bines

are

manufactured

the

know-how

created

through

national

techno-

logies

64.5

67.7

1.0

67.7

58.1

74.2

51.6

61.3

25.8

9.7

class

wind

power

generation

systems

ave

become

commercial

50.0

70.0

50.0

3.3

66.7

77.7

56.7

46.7

26.7

10.0

50%

reduction

ind

energy

generation

costs

per

56.3

78.1

46.9

5.6

71.9

65.6

56.3

50.0

56.3

28.1

12.5

Turkey’s

wind

power

installed

capacity

has

been

expected

exceed

43.2

64.9

43.2

8.4

62.2

45.9

64.9

45.9

78.4

43.2

13.5

Turkey

the

forefront

the

European

coun-

tries

for

utilizing

the

wind

energy

44.1

67.6

70.6

7.6

64.7

55.9

64.7

47.1

67.6

50.0

20.6

Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey

M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar

Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737–748

2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DOI: 10.1002/er

744

The overall importance index ranged from 0 for less
importance to 1 for the most important. According to
experts’ opinions, the degree of importance of the Delphi
statements to Turkey was shown in Table IV. According
to the degree of importance index, the top statement
was ‘High efﬁciency wind turbines are manufactured
by the know-how created through national technologies’
calculated as 0.94. On the other hand, the statement
at the bottom of the list was ‘Equipments fulﬁlling
international standards are manufactured in Turkey’
calculated as 0.70. In other words, there are little differ-
ences between the statements ranked at the top and
bottom of the list.

4. CONCLUSION

This study gives a preliminary overview on the results
of the Delphi survey for future wind technology in
Turkey using expert opinions elicited from the face-to-
face meetings and a web-based survey developed
and designed using PHP and MySQL databases in
order to gather information for the two-round Delphi
method. The participants chosen for the survey played
key roles in the sector and the outcome was very
fruitful due to the fact that all the participants such as

academicians, policy makers, politicians, industrialists
and representatives of civil society organizations were
represented.

In this paper, we looked for the most important wind

technology and research priorities likely to be de-
manded by the Turkish energy industry. In this context,
we investigated Turkey’s wind future and we believe
that this foresight exercise may have contributed to the
policy objective of fostering the diversity of technolo-
gical options especially through the development of al-
ternative wind technology roadmaps that supported
participants in their R&D activities.

According to this study, the mean value of the time

of occurrence for most of the statements lies between
2015 and 2040. This corresponds well with the in-
tended 25 years time horizon of this study. The degree
of agreement on the time of occurrence differs strongly
from statement to statement. For example,

The statements with highest degree of consensus

among the respondents on the time of occurrence
are ‘Equipments fulﬁlling international standards
are manufactured in Turkey’ with 65% of the
respondents and ‘5% of Turkish Electricity
demand has been supplied by the wind power’
with 57% of respondents expecting a time of
occurrence between 2010 and 2020.

Table III. Impact ranking of wind energy technology statements.

Impacts

Statements

Round

Wealth

creation

Environment

impact

Quality of

life

Security of

supply

Overall

impact

Turkey is at the forefront of the European

countries for utilizing the wind energy

1.42

1.57

1.32

1.3

2.81

1.51

1.62

1.35

2.92

1.71

1.82

1.62

1.56

3.36

Turkey’s wind power installed capacity

has been expected to exceed 40 GW

1.41

1.64

1.34

2.88

1.48

1.66

1.39

1.41

2.98

1.62

1.81

1.57

1.54

3.28

50% reduction of wind energy generation

costs per kWh

1.57

1.4

1.41

1.32

2.86

1.59

1.39

1.42

1.32

2.87

1.72

1.5

1.56

1.5

3.15

High efficiency wind turbines are manufactured

by the know-how created through national technologies

1.54

1.49

1.22

1.12

2.7

1.57

1.47

1.21

1.1

2.7

1.77

1.61

1.39

1.35

3.08

5% Turkish Electricity demand has been supplied

by the wind power

1.36

1.48

1.3

2.72

1.39

1.54

1.31

2.79

1.57

1.68

1.32

2.96

10 MW class wind power generation systems

have become commercial

1.16

1.26

1.03

2.23

1.21

1.27

1.03

2.28

1.37

1.43

1.2

1.17

2.59

Low RPM generators have been developed to

eliminate gearbox assemblies in Turbines

0.92

0.97

0.8

0.85

1.78

1.02

1.07

0.91

0.88

1.95

1.27

1.36

1.18

1.09

2.46

Equipments fulfilling international standards are

manufactured in Turkey

1.01

0.94

0.78

1.77

0.98

0.92

0.76

0.73

1.71

1.08

0.88

0.85

0.69

1.77

Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey

M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar

745

Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737–748

2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DOI: 10.1002/er

Least consensus is found in statements ‘Turkey

is at the forefront of the European countries
for utilizing the wind energy’ with 15.8%
Never

responded, ‘Turkey’s wind power installed

capacity has been expected to exceed 40 GW’ with
14.8% Never responded as well as ‘High efﬁciency
wind turbines are manufactured by the know-
how created through national technologies’ with
13.2% Never responded.

A convergence of the answers can be observed

over the two rounds. This illustrates a greater
degree of consensus among the respondents,
which is a desirable and typical phenomenon of
the Delphi technique.

The other most important ﬁndings obtained from

the Delphi survey can be summarized as follows:

Turkey’s wind power installed capacity will reach

40 000 MW in about 2030.

Turkey could be at the forefront of the European

countries for utilizing the wind energy through 2040.

Wind energy technology is foresighted to have

large socio-economic impacts in the future.

The technological statements are ranked according

to their impact on these four impact measures.
Assessed was the impact on wealth creation, environment,

quality of life and security of supply. According to
impact values, the top statement is ‘Turkey is at the
forefront of the European countries for utilizing the
wind energy’ with an average effect index score of
3.36. On the other hand, the bottom statement is
‘Equipments fulﬁlling international standards are
manufactured in Turkey’ with an average effect index
score of 1.77.

Actions needed were evaluated on the basis of the

Delphi results for all statements. The two items
with the highest degree of consensus among the res-
pondents were ‘Development of R&D infrastructure’
and ‘Fiscal measures’ items, whereas, ‘Increase in
social awareness activities’ has been pointed out by
few respondents. On the other hand, the statement
with the highest degree of consensus among the
respondents on the necessity of basic research was
‘High efﬁciency wind turbines are manufactured by
the know-how created through national technologies’
with 64.5%, whereby the statement ‘5% Turkish
Electricity demand has been supplied by the wind
power’ with 39.3% had very few respondents pointing
towards an increase in Basic research as a required
action for realization.

All participants believed in the power of strengthened

and increased development of R&D infrastructure and
applications. As Turkey has a substantial technically and
economically exploitable wind resource, it is obvious

Table IV. The degree of importance of the Delphi statements to Turkey.

The degree of importance to Turkey

Statements

Round

High (%)

Medium (%)

Low (%)

Unnecessary (%)

Index

High efficiency wind turbines are manufactured

by the know-how created through national technologies

0.85

0.94

50% reduction of wind energy generation

costs per kWh

0.88

0.91

Turkey is at the forefront of the European countries

for utilizing the wind energy

0.76

0.80

0.90

5% Turkish Electricity demand has been supplied

by the wind power

0.81

0.89

Turkey’s wind power installed capacity has been

expected to exceed 40 GW

0.86

0.88

0.87

Low RPM generators have been developed to

eliminate gearbox assemblies in Turbines

0.64

0.68

0.81

10 MW class wind power generation systems have

become commercial

0.67

0.69

0.73

Equipments fulfilling international standards are

manufactured in Turkey

0.64

0.65

0.70

Foresight analysis of wind power in Turkey

M. S. Celiktas and G. Kocar

Int. J. Energy Res. 2012; 36:737–748

2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DOI: 10.1002/er

746

that the advancements in the mentioned wind technol-
ogy in this publication are going to make an impact on
environment and wealth creation, therefore bringing
economic and environmental beneﬁt to the society.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This project was supported by the Research Fund of
Ege University (07GEE001). We acknowledge all
participants involved in the Delphi survey.

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