The

Demographic Transition Model

attempts to show how population

changes as a country develops.

The Demographic

Transition Model

Stage 1

Birth rate and death rate are
high - low natural increase - low
total population

Stage 2

Birth rate is high - death rate is
falling - high natural increase
(population growth)

Stage 3

Falling birth rate - low death
rate - high natural increase
(population growth)

Stage 4

Birth rate and death rate is low
- low natural increase - high
total population

Population Changes in LEDCs

The populations of most less economically

developed countries (LEDCs) are growing very

rapidly. Most are at stage 2 and 3 of the

Demographic Transition Model. They have
declining deaths rates and high birth rates.

Therefore, natural increase is high. Life

expectancy is low.

STAGE 1 – DEATH RATES ARE HIGH

FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS:

1.............................................

2.............................................

3.............................................

4.............................................

Birth rates are high for a number of reasons:

1. Lack of

family planning

education or contraceptives

2. In rural areas children are needed as labour on farms.

In urban areas they are needed to work in the
informal sector to earn money for their families.

3. Women have a large number of children as there is a

high level of

infant mortality

4. Culture/religion: it is unacceptable to use

contraception

Stage 2,3 Death rates

are declining

because of:

……………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………
……………………………………………………………………

……………………………………………………………………..

improvements in

sanitation

and healthcare

Population Changes in MEDCs

In most MEDCs population growth is stable. MEDCs

have low birth and death rates. In some Germany the

birth rate is actually lower than the death rate.

This means there is a decrease in population or a

natural increase of -0.1%.

The major problem for many MEDCs is

an ageing population.

Life expectancy in MEDCs is increasing

as people are now living longer due to

improvements in health care, diet and

lifestyle.

Therefore, there will be a a greater

number of elderly dependents. In the UK

this is likely to lead to increased taxes to

pay for health care and pensions.