DEFLATION

THE WORLD’S BIGGEST

ECONOMIC PROBLEM ?

PROF. DR HAB. JAN W.BOSSAK

CZY DEFLACJA I INFLACJA TO ZJAWISKA WYLACZNIE

MONETARNE ? JAKI WPLYW NA DEFLACJE I INFLACJE MA

ROZWOJ MIEDZYNARODOWEJ WSPOLPRACY

,KONKURENCJA,INNOWACJE I WYSTEPOWANIE DLA KUPUJACYCH

ZJAWISKA POZYTYWNYCH EFEKTOW ZEWNETRZNYCH.

CZY WZROST SYSTEMOWEGO RYZYKA FINANSOWEGO

ISTOTNIE MOŻE ZMNIEJSZYC MIEKKA POLITYKA MONETARNA

EBC, BRF .PODAJ ARGUMENTY ZA I PRZECIW

SKUTKI DEFLACJI W EUROPIE DLA GOSPODARKI SWIATOWEJ I

POZYCJI KONKURENCYJNEJ UE

CZY QE (LUZOWANIE ILOSCIOWE) POLITYKI MONETARNEJ

WZBUDZI POPYT INWESTYCYJNY, KONSUMPCYJNY,

EKSPORTOWY,CZY PONOWNIE ZACHECI DO SPEKULACJI

FINANSOWYCH

DEFLACJA I INFLACJA W WARUNKACH

GLOBALIZACJI.II

CZY REFORMY INSTYTUCJONALNE REDUKUJACE RYZYKO

SYSTEMOWE,FINANSOWE I POBUDZAJACE

PRZEDSIEBIORCZOSC ,KONKURENCJE I INNOWACJE ORAZ ROZWOJ

WSPOLPRACY MIEDZYNARODOWEJ SA EFEKTYWNIEJSZYM

SPOSOBEM NIŻ STYMULACJA MONETARNA ,JAK I BUDZETOWA ?

WYKORZYSTAJ SCHEMAT ROWNOWAGI MUNDELLA FLEMINGA

POSZERZONY O WPLYW : 1. REFROM INSTYTUCJONALNYCH

ZWIEKSZAJACYCH EFEKTYWNOSC I DYNAMICZNA SPRAWNOSC

RYNKU,

2.POSZERZAJACYCH UDZIAL KONKURENCJI I WSPOLPRACY

MIEDZYNARODOWEJ ORAZ 3.ZWIEKSZAJACYCH NAKLADY NA

INNOWACJE RYNKOWE I ICH DOSTOSOWANIE DO WARUNKOW

KONKURENCJI MIEDZYNARODOWEJ

DO DYNAMICZNEJ ANALIZY EFEKTYWNOSCI RYNKU W WARUNKACH

GLOBALIZACJI

INFLATION AND

DEFLATION

ECONOMIC AND MONETARY PHENOMENON ?

ECONOMIC DIMENSION OF INFLATION AND

DEFLATION

INFLATION AND DEFLATION .TIME PERSPECTIVE

ANTYMONY

BUSINESS CYCLE :INFLATION,DEFLATION

SOURCES OF AN INFLATION AND

DEFLATION

MONETARY SOURCES

CHANGES IN DEMAND AND SUPPLY

DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL FACTORS

INFLATION AND DEFLATION SHOCKS

STRUCTURAL FACTORS

INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS

INNOVATION

CONSEQUENCES OF AN INFLATION AND DEFLATION

DISTORTIONS IN MONEY FUNCTIONS

DISTORTIONS IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION

DISTORTIONS IN VALUATION

DISTORTIONS IN ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES

CHANGES IN MONETARY POLICIES

EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

GROWING FINANCIAL RISK

CHANGES IN FINANCIAL LIQUIDITIES

CHANGES IN COST AND MONEY AVAILABILITY

HOW TO FIGHT INFLATION AND

DEFLATION (1)

EASING AND RESTRICTING MONEY AVAILABILITY

INTEREST RATES, RESERVES RATIO,

CHANGING BANK’S CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO

(CAR)

MONEY SUPPLY

INFLUENCING DOMESTIC SAVINGS AND

INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL FLOWS

OPEN MARKET OPERATION

EXCHANGE RATE FIXING

CHANGING TAX POLICY

CHANGING BUDGET EXPENDITURES

CHANGING SOCIAL SECURITY POLICY

HOW TO FIGHT INFLATION AND

DEFLATION (2)

INSTITUTIONAL LIBERALIZATION

(MORE MARKET PROCES)

DEMONOPOLIZATION

DEREGULATION

PRIVATIZATION (MORE MARKET)

ENCOURAGING ENTREPRENEURSHIP

PROVIDING MORE ECONOMIC

FREEDOM AND ALTERNATIVES

ENCOURAGING COMPETITION

SUPPORTING INNOVATION

DANGERS OF

INFLATION

DIFFERENT SOURCES OF INFLATION

DISTORTIONS IN MARKET VALUATION PROCESS

DISTORTION IN MARKET DISTRIBUTION OF

BENEFITS

DISTORTION IN RISK

REDUCED MARKET EFFICIENCY

GROWING ECONOMIC DISEQUILLIBRIUM

DANGERS OF

DEFLATION

REDUCED ACTIVITY

REDUCED INCOME

DISTORTIONS IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION

INCREASED PROPENSITY FOR SAVINGS

REDUCED DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION

REDUCED INVESTMENTS

PRESSURE FOR EXPORTS AND REDUCTION

OF IMPORTS

DANGER OF PROTECTIONISM

BENEFITS OF

INFLATION

GROWING DEMAND (EXCEPT COST

AND IMPORTED INFLATION)

INCREASE IN INVESTMENTS

,INCOMES AND EMPLOYMENT

GROWING HOUSEHOLDS

EXPENDITURE AND CONSUMPTION

BENEFITS OF DEFLATION

PRICE RESTRUCTURING

MARKET STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT

IMPROVEMENT IN MARKET EFFICIENCY

GROWING COMPETITION PRESSURE FOR

INNOVATION AND COST REDUCTIONS

GROWTH OF PURCHASING POWER OF INCOME

INFLATION AND DEFLATION

IMPACT ON

ENTREPRENEURSHIP

DEFLATION INCREASED PRESSURE FOR

MARKET ADJUSTMENT AND STIMULATES

ENTERPRENEURSHIP ,COMPETITION

INFLATION CREATES MORE

OPPORTUNITIES AND REDUCED MARKET

COMPETITIVE PRESSURE

REDUCED MARKET EFFICIENCY DUE TO

INFLATION AND DEFLATION DISTORTS

ENTREPRENEURSHIP

DEFLATION INCREASES MARKET RISK

INFLATION INCREASES SYSTEMIC RISK

INFLATION AND DEFLATION IMPACT

ON COMPETITION

INFLATION REDUCES COMPETITION AND MARKET

EFFICIENCY IN TERMS OF COSTS AND INNOVATION

DEFLATION HAVE A STRONG IMPACT ON

RESTRUCTURING AND COST REDUCTIONS

DUE TO HIGHER MARKET RISK LIMITS MODERNIZATION

INVESTMENTS

INFLATION AND DEFLATION

IMPACT ON ALLOCATION OF

RESOURCES

INFLATION HAS A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON ALLOCATION

OF RESOURCES

DEFLATIONS HAS A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ELIMINATION

OF UNCOMPETITIVE ACTIVITIES AND TRANSFER OF

FREE FACTORS TO PROSPECTIVE ACTIVITIES

DEFLATION IN SHORT TERM LEADS TO HIGH SOCIAL

COSTS

INFLATION AND DEFLATION AND

ECONOMIC ADJUSTEMENT

INFLATON REDUCED MARKET EFFECTIVENESS

AND LEADS TO MARKET DISTORTION IN

ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES IN MID AND

LONG TERMS

DEFLATION HAS HIGHER SHORT TERM SOCIAL

COST BUT HELPS TO RESTORE EFFICIENCY

AND DYNAMICS IN MD AND LONG

PERSPECTIVE

DEFLATION REQUIRES INCREASE IN

MODERNIZATION BUDGET SPENDINGS

,REDUCTION OF TRANSACTION COSTS AND

RISK AND NEOMERKANTILISTIC POLICIES

INFLATION AND DEFLATION

IMPACT ON INNOVATION

INFLATION REDUCES COMPETITION AND RISK

APPETITE RELATED TO COMMERCIALIZATION

OF INNOVATIONS

DEFLATIONS IMPROVES MARKET

EFFECTIVENESS TROUGH PRICE RELATIVE

CHANGES AND IMPROVEMENT IN ALLOCATION

OF RESOURCES AND EXERTING GREATER

PRESSURE FOR INNOVATION

DEFLATION NEEDS REFORMS INCREASING

MARKET EFFICIENCY, ENTREPRENEURSHIP,

COMPETITION,INNOVATION AND REDUCING

SYSTEMIC AND MARKET RISK

INFLATION AND DEFLATION

IMPACT ON MONEY VALUE AND

PPP

INFLATIONS REDUCED PPP OF INCOME

AND ENCOURAGES SPENDINGS AND

REDUCTION OF SAVINGS

DEFLATION INCREASES PPP AND

REDUCES CONSUMPTION SPENDINGS

AND INVESTMENT.REQUIRES INCRESE IN

EXPORT DEMAND ,AND INVESTMENT

DEMAND BY AN INCREASE IN BUDGET

SPENDINGS FOLLOWED BY PRIVATE

INVESTMENTS DUE TO EXPORT AND

INVESTMENT MULTIPLIER EFFECT

INFLATION AND DEFLATION

IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT

INFLATION INCREASE BUSINESS ACTIVITIES,INCOMES

AND EMPOLOYMENT IN SHORT TERM

DEFLATION REDUCES INEFFICIENT BUSINESS

ACTIVITIES.IN SHORT TERM CAN LEAD TO INCOME AND

EMPLOYMENT DECLINE

DEFLATION IS A PROCESS OF MARKET ADJUSTMENT

INFLATION AND DEFLATION

AND INCOMES

INFLATION DISTORTS INCOME DISTRIBUTION .FAVOURS

ENTREPRENEURS AT THE EXPENSE OF CUSTOMERS.

INFLATION IS A FORM OF CONSUMPTION TAX

DEFLATIONS PRESSERS ENTREPRENEURS FOR

ADDITIONAL EFFORTS TO ADJUSTS

INFLATION AND DEFLATION AND

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

RELATIVE INFLATION REDUCES PPP OF

NATIONAL CURRENCY AND IN MID AND

LONG TERM DISTORTS ALLOCATION OF

RESOURCES AND THEIR

EFFICIENCY,REDUCES ALSO INNOVATION

PRESSURE

DEFLATION LEADS TO INCREASE IN

EXPORTS.REDUCED INTEREST RATES

(RELATIVE) INCREASE PRICE

COMPETITIVENESS.CHANGES IN

COMPARATIVE COSTS IMPROVES IT

ADDITIONALLY

INFLATION AND DEFLATION

AND INTERNATIONAL

COMPETITIVENESS

RELATIVE INFLATION IN SHORT,MID AND LONG TERMS

REDUCES INTERNATIONAL PRICE, PRODUCT

DIVERSITY,QUALITY AND INNOVATION

COMPETITVENESS

DEFLATION CHANGING RELATIVE PRICES AND

EXCHANGE RATES IMPROVES COMPETITVENESS AND

TERMS OF TRADE

INFLATION AND DEFLATION

AND NET INTERNATIONAL

FINANCIAL POSITION

INFLATION LEADS TO INCREASE IN

INTEREST RATES AND FINANCIAL

COSTS.THIS ATTRACTS IN SHORT

PERSPECTIVE INFLOW OF SHORT TERM

FINANCE

INFLATION CAN ENCOURAGE INFLOW OF

PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS AND FDI

DEFLATION UNTIL INCREASE OF

INVESTMENTS STIMULATES OUTFLOW OF

DOMESTIC SAVINGS AND FOREIGN

CAPITAL

CRITICAL ASSESMENT OF ECB MONETARY POLICIES

AND PUBLIC FINANCE RESTRICTIVE POLICIES BY

GERMANY,FRANCE AND GREAT BRITAIN

MONETARY POLICY NOT SUPPORTED BY

EXPANSIONARY INVESTMENT POLICY IS

INEFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING DEFLATION

ECB MONETARY POLICY FEEDS FINANCIAL

INSTITUTIONS INSTEAD OF POLICIES INCREASING

DEMAND ,ENTREPRENEURSHIP,COMPETITION

AND INNOVATION IN REAL ECONOMY

DEFLATION IS NOT ONLY MONETARY

PHENOMENON IT IS ALSO A PROBLEM OF REAL

ECONOMY ,FACTOR MARKETS EFFICIENCY AND

BUSINESS RISK RELATED TO INVESTMENTS AND

INNOVATION