DEFLATION
THE WORLD’S BIGGEST
ECONOMIC PROBLEM ?
PROF. DR HAB. JAN W.BOSSAK
CZY DEFLACJA I INFLACJA TO ZJAWISKA WYLACZNIE
MONETARNE ? JAKI WPLYW NA DEFLACJE I INFLACJE MA
ROZWOJ MIEDZYNARODOWEJ WSPOLPRACY
,KONKURENCJA,INNOWACJE I WYSTEPOWANIE DLA KUPUJACYCH
ZJAWISKA POZYTYWNYCH EFEKTOW ZEWNETRZNYCH.
CZY WZROST SYSTEMOWEGO RYZYKA FINANSOWEGO
ISTOTNIE MOŻE ZMNIEJSZYC MIEKKA POLITYKA MONETARNA
EBC, BRF .PODAJ ARGUMENTY ZA I PRZECIW
SKUTKI DEFLACJI W EUROPIE DLA GOSPODARKI SWIATOWEJ I
POZYCJI KONKURENCYJNEJ UE
CZY QE (LUZOWANIE ILOSCIOWE) POLITYKI MONETARNEJ
WZBUDZI POPYT INWESTYCYJNY, KONSUMPCYJNY,
EKSPORTOWY,CZY PONOWNIE ZACHECI DO SPEKULACJI
FINANSOWYCH
DEFLACJA I INFLACJA W WARUNKACH
GLOBALIZACJI.II
CZY REFORMY INSTYTUCJONALNE REDUKUJACE RYZYKO
SYSTEMOWE,FINANSOWE I POBUDZAJACE
PRZEDSIEBIORCZOSC ,KONKURENCJE I INNOWACJE ORAZ ROZWOJ
WSPOLPRACY MIEDZYNARODOWEJ SA EFEKTYWNIEJSZYM
SPOSOBEM NIŻ STYMULACJA MONETARNA ,JAK I BUDZETOWA ?
WYKORZYSTAJ SCHEMAT ROWNOWAGI MUNDELLA FLEMINGA
POSZERZONY O WPLYW : 1. REFROM INSTYTUCJONALNYCH
ZWIEKSZAJACYCH EFEKTYWNOSC I DYNAMICZNA SPRAWNOSC
RYNKU,
2.POSZERZAJACYCH UDZIAL KONKURENCJI I WSPOLPRACY
MIEDZYNARODOWEJ ORAZ 3.ZWIEKSZAJACYCH NAKLADY NA
INNOWACJE RYNKOWE I ICH DOSTOSOWANIE DO WARUNKOW
KONKURENCJI MIEDZYNARODOWEJ
DO DYNAMICZNEJ ANALIZY EFEKTYWNOSCI RYNKU W WARUNKACH
GLOBALIZACJI
INFLATION AND
DEFLATION
ECONOMIC AND MONETARY PHENOMENON ?
ECONOMIC DIMENSION OF INFLATION AND
DEFLATION
INFLATION AND DEFLATION .TIME PERSPECTIVE
ANTYMONY
BUSINESS CYCLE :INFLATION,DEFLATION
SOURCES OF AN INFLATION AND
DEFLATION
MONETARY SOURCES
CHANGES IN DEMAND AND SUPPLY
DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL FACTORS
INFLATION AND DEFLATION SHOCKS
STRUCTURAL FACTORS
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
INNOVATION
CONSEQUENCES OF AN INFLATION AND DEFLATION
DISTORTIONS IN MONEY FUNCTIONS
DISTORTIONS IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION
DISTORTIONS IN VALUATION
DISTORTIONS IN ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES
CHANGES IN MONETARY POLICIES
EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES
GROWING FINANCIAL RISK
CHANGES IN FINANCIAL LIQUIDITIES
CHANGES IN COST AND MONEY AVAILABILITY
HOW TO FIGHT INFLATION AND
DEFLATION (1)
EASING AND RESTRICTING MONEY AVAILABILITY
INTEREST RATES, RESERVES RATIO,
CHANGING BANK’S CAPITAL ADEQUACY RATIO
(CAR)
MONEY SUPPLY
INFLUENCING DOMESTIC SAVINGS AND
INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL FLOWS
OPEN MARKET OPERATION
EXCHANGE RATE FIXING
CHANGING TAX POLICY
CHANGING BUDGET EXPENDITURES
CHANGING SOCIAL SECURITY POLICY
HOW TO FIGHT INFLATION AND
DEFLATION (2)
INSTITUTIONAL LIBERALIZATION
(MORE MARKET PROCES)
DEMONOPOLIZATION
DEREGULATION
PRIVATIZATION (MORE MARKET)
ENCOURAGING ENTREPRENEURSHIP
PROVIDING MORE ECONOMIC
FREEDOM AND ALTERNATIVES
ENCOURAGING COMPETITION
SUPPORTING INNOVATION
DANGERS OF
INFLATION
DIFFERENT SOURCES OF INFLATION
DISTORTIONS IN MARKET VALUATION PROCESS
DISTORTION IN MARKET DISTRIBUTION OF
BENEFITS
DISTORTION IN RISK
REDUCED MARKET EFFICIENCY
GROWING ECONOMIC DISEQUILLIBRIUM
DANGERS OF
DEFLATION
REDUCED ACTIVITY
REDUCED INCOME
DISTORTIONS IN INCOME DISTRIBUTION
INCREASED PROPENSITY FOR SAVINGS
REDUCED DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION
REDUCED INVESTMENTS
PRESSURE FOR EXPORTS AND REDUCTION
OF IMPORTS
DANGER OF PROTECTIONISM
BENEFITS OF
INFLATION
GROWING DEMAND (EXCEPT COST
AND IMPORTED INFLATION)
INCREASE IN INVESTMENTS
,INCOMES AND EMPLOYMENT
GROWING HOUSEHOLDS
EXPENDITURE AND CONSUMPTION
BENEFITS OF DEFLATION
PRICE RESTRUCTURING
MARKET STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT
IMPROVEMENT IN MARKET EFFICIENCY
GROWING COMPETITION PRESSURE FOR
INNOVATION AND COST REDUCTIONS
GROWTH OF PURCHASING POWER OF INCOME
INFLATION AND DEFLATION
IMPACT ON
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
DEFLATION INCREASED PRESSURE FOR
MARKET ADJUSTMENT AND STIMULATES
ENTERPRENEURSHIP ,COMPETITION
INFLATION CREATES MORE
OPPORTUNITIES AND REDUCED MARKET
COMPETITIVE PRESSURE
REDUCED MARKET EFFICIENCY DUE TO
INFLATION AND DEFLATION DISTORTS
ENTREPRENEURSHIP
DEFLATION INCREASES MARKET RISK
INFLATION INCREASES SYSTEMIC RISK
INFLATION AND DEFLATION IMPACT
ON COMPETITION
INFLATION REDUCES COMPETITION AND MARKET
EFFICIENCY IN TERMS OF COSTS AND INNOVATION
DEFLATION HAVE A STRONG IMPACT ON
RESTRUCTURING AND COST REDUCTIONS
DUE TO HIGHER MARKET RISK LIMITS MODERNIZATION
INVESTMENTS
INFLATION AND DEFLATION
IMPACT ON ALLOCATION OF
RESOURCES
INFLATION HAS A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON ALLOCATION
OF RESOURCES
DEFLATIONS HAS A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ELIMINATION
OF UNCOMPETITIVE ACTIVITIES AND TRANSFER OF
FREE FACTORS TO PROSPECTIVE ACTIVITIES
DEFLATION IN SHORT TERM LEADS TO HIGH SOCIAL
COSTS
INFLATION AND DEFLATION AND
ECONOMIC ADJUSTEMENT
INFLATON REDUCED MARKET EFFECTIVENESS
AND LEADS TO MARKET DISTORTION IN
ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES IN MID AND
LONG TERMS
DEFLATION HAS HIGHER SHORT TERM SOCIAL
COST BUT HELPS TO RESTORE EFFICIENCY
AND DYNAMICS IN MD AND LONG
PERSPECTIVE
DEFLATION REQUIRES INCREASE IN
MODERNIZATION BUDGET SPENDINGS
,REDUCTION OF TRANSACTION COSTS AND
RISK AND NEOMERKANTILISTIC POLICIES
INFLATION AND DEFLATION
IMPACT ON INNOVATION
INFLATION REDUCES COMPETITION AND RISK
APPETITE RELATED TO COMMERCIALIZATION
OF INNOVATIONS
DEFLATIONS IMPROVES MARKET
EFFECTIVENESS TROUGH PRICE RELATIVE
CHANGES AND IMPROVEMENT IN ALLOCATION
OF RESOURCES AND EXERTING GREATER
PRESSURE FOR INNOVATION
DEFLATION NEEDS REFORMS INCREASING
MARKET EFFICIENCY, ENTREPRENEURSHIP,
COMPETITION,INNOVATION AND REDUCING
SYSTEMIC AND MARKET RISK
INFLATION AND DEFLATION
IMPACT ON MONEY VALUE AND
PPP
INFLATIONS REDUCED PPP OF INCOME
AND ENCOURAGES SPENDINGS AND
REDUCTION OF SAVINGS
DEFLATION INCREASES PPP AND
REDUCES CONSUMPTION SPENDINGS
AND INVESTMENT.REQUIRES INCRESE IN
EXPORT DEMAND ,AND INVESTMENT
DEMAND BY AN INCREASE IN BUDGET
SPENDINGS FOLLOWED BY PRIVATE
INVESTMENTS DUE TO EXPORT AND
INVESTMENT MULTIPLIER EFFECT
INFLATION AND DEFLATION
IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT
INFLATION INCREASE BUSINESS ACTIVITIES,INCOMES
AND EMPOLOYMENT IN SHORT TERM
DEFLATION REDUCES INEFFICIENT BUSINESS
ACTIVITIES.IN SHORT TERM CAN LEAD TO INCOME AND
EMPLOYMENT DECLINE
DEFLATION IS A PROCESS OF MARKET ADJUSTMENT
INFLATION AND DEFLATION
AND INCOMES
INFLATION DISTORTS INCOME DISTRIBUTION .FAVOURS
ENTREPRENEURS AT THE EXPENSE OF CUSTOMERS.
INFLATION IS A FORM OF CONSUMPTION TAX
DEFLATIONS PRESSERS ENTREPRENEURS FOR
ADDITIONAL EFFORTS TO ADJUSTS
INFLATION AND DEFLATION AND
INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
RELATIVE INFLATION REDUCES PPP OF
NATIONAL CURRENCY AND IN MID AND
LONG TERM DISTORTS ALLOCATION OF
RESOURCES AND THEIR
EFFICIENCY,REDUCES ALSO INNOVATION
PRESSURE
DEFLATION LEADS TO INCREASE IN
EXPORTS.REDUCED INTEREST RATES
(RELATIVE) INCREASE PRICE
COMPETITIVENESS.CHANGES IN
COMPARATIVE COSTS IMPROVES IT
ADDITIONALLY
INFLATION AND DEFLATION
AND INTERNATIONAL
COMPETITIVENESS
RELATIVE INFLATION IN SHORT,MID AND LONG TERMS
REDUCES INTERNATIONAL PRICE, PRODUCT
DIVERSITY,QUALITY AND INNOVATION
COMPETITVENESS
DEFLATION CHANGING RELATIVE PRICES AND
EXCHANGE RATES IMPROVES COMPETITVENESS AND
TERMS OF TRADE
INFLATION AND DEFLATION
AND NET INTERNATIONAL
FINANCIAL POSITION
INFLATION LEADS TO INCREASE IN
INTEREST RATES AND FINANCIAL
COSTS.THIS ATTRACTS IN SHORT
PERSPECTIVE INFLOW OF SHORT TERM
FINANCE
INFLATION CAN ENCOURAGE INFLOW OF
PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS AND FDI
DEFLATION UNTIL INCREASE OF
INVESTMENTS STIMULATES OUTFLOW OF
DOMESTIC SAVINGS AND FOREIGN
CAPITAL
CRITICAL ASSESMENT OF ECB MONETARY POLICIES
AND PUBLIC FINANCE RESTRICTIVE POLICIES BY
GERMANY,FRANCE AND GREAT BRITAIN
MONETARY POLICY NOT SUPPORTED BY
EXPANSIONARY INVESTMENT POLICY IS
INEFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING DEFLATION
ECB MONETARY POLICY FEEDS FINANCIAL
INSTITUTIONS INSTEAD OF POLICIES INCREASING
DEMAND ,ENTREPRENEURSHIP,COMPETITION
AND INNOVATION IN REAL ECONOMY
DEFLATION IS NOT ONLY MONETARY
PHENOMENON IT IS ALSO A PROBLEM OF REAL
ECONOMY ,FACTOR MARKETS EFFICIENCY AND
BUSINESS RISK RELATED TO INVESTMENTS AND
INNOVATION