Trading
with Volume indicator offers the following features:
Volume
confirms the strength of a trend or suggests about its weakness.
A
rising volume indicates rising interest among traders, while a
falling volume suggests decline in interest.
Extreme
Volume readings — Climax Volume often highlight price
reversals.
Points where market trades on high volume are
the points of strong support and resistance.
All various
kinds of breakouts and market spikes can be validated or voided with
a help of Volume indicator.
Why
Volume?
Volume
is the second most valuable data after the price itself.
Large
volume signifies that there is large number of market participants
involved, including financial institutions. The last ones bring the
highest turnover to the market, and if they are trading, it means the
interest to the price at certain point and/or to the trend overall is
high.
Small volume tells that there are very little participants
in the market, neither buyers no sellers have any significant
interest in the price. In addition, no financial institutions will be
involved, thus a market is going to be moved only by individual
traders and so the move will be weak.
Volume
and Trend
Volume
helps to learn about the health of a trend.
An uptrend is strong
and healthy if Volume increases as price moves with the trend and
decreases when price goes counter trend (correction periods).
When
price is going up and volume is decreasing, it tells traders that a
trend is unlikely to continue. Price may still attempt to increase at
a slower pace, but once sellers get the grip on it (which will be
signified by an increase in volume on a down candle), the price will
fall.
A downtrend is strong and healthy if volume
increases as price moves lower and decreases when it begins retracing
upwards.
When price is falling and volume is decreasing, the
downtrend is unlikely to continue. Price will either continue to
decrease, but at a slower pace or start to rise.
Volume
and Reversals
To
understand the nature of spike in volume before a trend reversal,
traders need to know how the data for volume indicator is gathered in
Forex.
Forex volume cannot be measured precisely as it is
done, for example, in Equity market, where every share traded equals
1 volume, and selling 200 shares means 200 in volume. Forex by nature
cannot count how many contracts and what sizes of contracts were
traded at any given time, because the market is wide and
decentralized. Therefore to count volume in Forex the number of
ticks/changes in price is used. 1 tick measures 1 volume. As it moves
up and down volume adds up.
When volume rises, it means
lots of participants are actively selling and buying currencies. When
volume spikes at certain price level, traders know that there was
lots of interest shown by traders to that price level. If there is a
lot of interest, it means the level is an important one.
This
simple observation of a volume indicator allows identify important
Support and Resistance levels, which would certainly play significant
role in the future.
Where Volume spikes are distinctively
extreme (larger than any historical spikes around) — Climax
Volume
— traders should look for clues from the price itself. Candles that
have a narrow range, spinning tops/bottoms, dojies, stars, other
candles with extremely large tails have highest chances to become the
price turning points.
Single volume spikes only bring
price to a halt. A lot of stand-alone average volume spikes occur
during fundamental economic announcements on daily basis. News can
cause spike in volume for a single day and then volume disappears
again.
Reversals, however, happen not over one day but a
series of days. If higher than average volume stays on the market for
several to many days a huge volume spike — volume climax — will
crown a point of market reversal.
<See
chart 2
attached (bottom one) ... courtesy of article source>
Volume
and Breakouts
Volume
indicator helps to validate all kinds of breakouts.
When market
is consolidating on a low volume, a sudden pick up in volume would
signify that a breakout is due.
Breakout occurring on
rising volume is a valid breakout, while a breakout that caused no
interest from traders as it is happening on a low volume is more
likely a false one.
Trend lines and other breakouts are
validated or voided the same way.
Reading
Volume Indicator step by step
<See
chart 1
attached (top one) ... courtesy of article source>
We’ll
compare the weeks, not individual days.
Week 1: as price
falls, volume rises compare to previous week – interest to
downtrend among traders grow.
Week 2: volume peaks and
begins to decrease as price move higher – sellers are still
interested in downtrend, buying the currency is going on a lower
volume.
3: volume is lower than previous weak, confirming
that there is still very little interest in buying the pair.
4:
Sellers push down, but this time volume doesn’t increase – it is
about equal to week 3.
5: Both sides lost interest as the
market drifts sideways on low trading range.
6: market
finally finds dome buying interest as the week ends on higher than
previous week volume. Buyers seem to be going active.
7:
Buyers going full steam – volume rises – it is a healthy
uptrend.
8: Correction came – volume drops, no one is
interested in Selling the pair – confirmation of a healthy
volume.
9: Volume picks up again once price finds its
uptrend.
10: Exhaustion gap is seen on the chart, followed
by a doji candle with a spike in volume – a highlight of a market
turning point. Market ends trading on a lower volume.
11:
Even Sunday was busier than usual. The new week market begins with an
attempt to rise higher, however volume suggests that the interest to
the upper side is much lower.
12, 13 and 14: market
attempts to move upward, but volume decreases, signaling that the
trend is no longer healthy and a change is coming soon.
15
and 16: some interest arises among traders as the market moves to the
downside, Sellers anticipate that this is a moment of a trend change,
a volume of new Short orders come.
17, 18 and 19: as the
market attempts to rise, volume drops, telling that there is no
interest to the upside.
20, 21 and 22: volume picks up
again as Sellers take over. A pause on week 21 with a sharp rise in
price is met by even higher volume on week 22.
23, 24, 25,
and 26: market rises, volume drops – confirmation that remaining
traders lose interest in that upward move.
27 and 28:
Price begins to decline, volume picks up – interest to the downside
is present.
29, mid 30: sideways pattern pause the trend
and the volume with it.
30, 31 and so on – trend picks
up making new lows, volume
confirms healthy trend by rising when price is falling and pausing or
falling when price is moving sideways or going into correction. This
is something really important I have found.
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