Ch 26-07 Build a Model Solution |
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3/7/2001 |
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Chapter 26. Solution to 26-07 Build a Model |
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Wansley Portal Inc., a large Internet service provider, is evaluating the possible acquisition of Alabama |
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Connections Company (ACC), a regional Internet service provider. Wansley's analysts project the following post |
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merger data for ACC (in thousands of dollars): |
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2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
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Net sales |
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$500 |
$600 |
$700 |
$760 |
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Selling and administrative expense |
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60 |
70 |
80 |
90 |
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Interest |
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20 |
23 |
25 |
28 |
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If the acquisition is made, it will occur on January 1, 2002. All cash flows shown in the income statements are |
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assumed to occur at the end of the year. ACC currently has a capital structure of 30 percent debt, but Wansley |
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would increase that to 40 percent if the acquisition were made. ACC, if independent, would pay taxes at 30 percent, |
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but its income would be taxed at 35 percent if it werre consolidated. ACC's current market-determined beta is 1.40. |
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The cost of goods sold is expected to be 65 percent of sales, but it could vary somewhat. Depreciation-generated |
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funds would be used to replace worn-out equipment, so they would not be available to Wansley's shareholders. The |
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risk-free rate is 7 percent, and the market risk premium is 6.5 percent. |
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Tax rate of ACC before the merger |
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30% |
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Tax rate after merger |
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35% |
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Cost of goods sold as a % of sales |
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65% |
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Debt ratio (percent financed with debt) before the merger |
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30% |
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Debt ratio (percent financed with debt) after the merger |
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40% |
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Beta of ACC |
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1.40 |
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Risk-free rate |
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7% |
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Market risk premium |
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6.5% |
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Terminal growth rate of cash flow available to Wansley |
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6.0% |
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a. What is the appropriate discount rate for valuing the acquisition? |
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In this analysis, the net cash flows generated are equity returns. Hence, the appropriate discount rate for this |
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analysis would be the cost of equity that reflects the risk inherent to this cash flow stream. |
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Step 1: Find the unlevered beta of ACC. |
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bU= |
1.095 |
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Step 2: Find the levered beta, reflecting the new capital structure and tax rate. |
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b= |
1.569 |
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Step 3: Use the CAPM to find the cost of equity |
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k S |
= |
k RF |
+ |
MRP |
* |
Beta |
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k S |
= |
7.0% |
+ |
6.5% |
* |
1.569 |
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k S |
= |
17.20% |
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b. What is the horizon, or continuing, value? What is the value of ACC to Wansley's shareholders? |
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Before we can proceed with this problem, we must generate pro forma income statements for ACC's operations after |
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the proposed merger. |
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2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
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Sales |
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$500.0 |
$600.0 |
$700.0 |
$760.0 |
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Cost of Goods Sold |
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325.0 |
390.0 |
455.0 |
494.0 |
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Gross Profit |
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175.0 |
210.0 |
245.0 |
266.0 |
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Selling/admin. costs |
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60.0 |
70.0 |
80.0 |
90.0 |
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EBIT |
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115.0 |
140.0 |
165.0 |
176.0 |
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Interest |
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20.0 |
23.0 |
25.0 |
28.0 |
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EBT |
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95.0 |
117.0 |
140.0 |
148.0 |
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Taxes |
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33.3 |
41.0 |
49.0 |
51.8 |
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Net Income/Cash Flow |
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$61.8 |
$76.1 |
$91.0 |
$96.2 |
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* In this scenario, we state that net income and net cash flow are equal. This assumption arises from the fact that |
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all cash flows due to depreciation are being used to replace worn out capital. |
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To calculate the continuing value, we must determine the net cash flow for 2005. This is derived as the 2004 net |
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cash flow expanded at the terminal growth rate of cash flows. From this point, we can derive terminal value from the |
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basic DCF framework. |
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NCF 2006 |
= |
NCF 2005 |
* |
(1 + g) |
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NCF 2006 |
= |
$96.20 |
* |
1.06 |
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NCF 2006 |
= |
$101.97 |
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TV 2005 |
= |
NCF 2006 |
/ |
(k S |
- |
g) |
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TV 2005 |
= |
$101.97 |
/ |
0.172 |
- |
0.06 |
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TV 2005 |
= |
$101.97 |
/ |
0.112 |
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TV 2005 |
= |
$910.34 |
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Now, we must add in the 2005 continuing value of future cash flows to the 2005 net cash flow. The resulting table of |
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cash flows will be as follows: |
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Year |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
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NCF |
$61.8 |
$76.1 |
$91.0 |
$1,006.5 |
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To find the value of ACC to Wansley's shareholders, we must find the net present value of this cash flow stream, |
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discounted at the cost of equity. |
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NPV ACC |
= |
$698.03 |
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