Yuan to supersede dollar as top reserve currency Ansua Harjani

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Yuan to supersede dollar as top
reserve currency: Survey

Ansuya Harjani

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@Ansuya_H

Wednesday, 26 Feb 2014 | 10:29 PM ET

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The tightly controlled

Chinese yuan

will eventually supersede the dollar as

the top international reserve currency, according to a new poll of institutional
investors.

The survey of 200 institutional investors - 100 headquartered in mainland
China and 100 outside of it - published by State Street and the Economist
Intelligence Unit on Thursday found 53 percent of investors think the renminbi
will surpass the U.S. dollar as the world's major reserve currency.

Optimism was higher within China, where 62 percent said they saw a
redback world on the horizon, compared with 43 percent outside China.

Hudiemm | E+ | Getty Images

"As China's economic influence grows, the global importance of the renminbi
will become magnified. Indeed, while for decades it has been a 'greenback
world', dominated by the U.S. dollar as the world's primary reserve currency,
many think a 'redback world', in which the renminbi enjoys premier status, is
increasingly a possibility," the report accompanying the survey said.

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(Read more:

Yuan takesanother step forward as a world currency

)

This view was shared by European Central Bank Executive Board member
Yves Mersch, who said on Wednesday that China's yuan is gaining
importance in international trade and investment and might ultimately
challenge the U.S. dollar.

However, skeptics of yuan internationalization argued that the renminbi will
never be liquid enough across all asset classes to serve as a viable reserve
currency, and that people will not trust the renminbi as a store of value.

Despite being a closely-managed currency, the renminbi's global clout has
been rising steadily. By the end of 2013, the renminbi had become the
second most used trade financing currency and ninth most used currency for
payments globally.

(Read more:

Yuan overtakes euro as 2nd most used currency in trade

finance

)

Recent moves in the yuan have triggered speculation that the People's Bank
of China is getting ready to widen its trading band - which would be a step
towards liberalizing the Chinese currency. The yuan is currently allowed to
rise or fall by 1 percent in either direction from a level fixed against the dollar
each day by the country's central bank.

Ultimately, a greater role for the yuan would require China to liberalize its
financial policies, including decreasing exchange-rate intervention,
liberalizing interest rates and relaxing restrictions on capital flows.

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Two-thirds of the respondents of the survey expect Beijing to complete its
financial liberalization within ten years, with a majority expecting major
reforms within five.

(Read more:

Is China getting ready to widen the yuan's band?

)

Financial liberalization in the mainland began in earnest after 2009, with the
government's decision to allow cross-border trade settlement in renminbi,
ease the process of listing offshore bonds and introduce the renminbi
qualified institutional investors (RQFII) program.

The reforms, however, are still limited in scope, with strict quotas for how
much currency can move across the border.

Last year, the government launched the Shanghai free-trade zone as a
testing ground for financial reforms, including full yuan convertibility.

—By CNBC's Ansuya Harjani. Follow her on Twitter

@Ansuya_H

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