00198 232d84ff9038548cd8ba3d622f949a

200

Messina, Montgomery, Keats & Runger

1    51    101    151    201    251

Observa1ion Number (t)

2 1

O -1

re*(t) -2 -3 -4

-5 -6

Figurę 2. Residuals for Shift of 10 Units per Period at Obscrvation 251.

Figurę 3. Prediction Error EWMA with X = 0.1 for a Shift of 10 Units per Period at Observation 251, PMepc/spc ⁼ 2.564.