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The experience of Japan and Singapore illustrates the real risk of a second wave of infections. MJ¹ Academic forecasts indicate how guickly these can grow as populations become morę mobile

•    Both Japan and Singapore have experienced a second wave of infection, which has necessitated additional restrictions to be imposed

•    For example, Singapore recorded its first case on 23^rd January and reacted quickly, closing borders, increasing public awareness, closely tracking individuals who may have the virus. and implementing a relaxed lockdown with schools, restaurants and some workplaces remaining open

•    In April, the number of cases in Singapore increased rapidly, causing the government to implement a morę strict lockdown including closures of schools, restaurants, and non-essential businesses until June

•    A study by the team at Imperial College London illustrates this risk in Europę, considering how the R_t may change under different scenarios of population mobility. This paper estimates that:

if mobility returns to 20% of the pre-lockdown levels, then an additional 3,700 deaths might occur

if mobility returns to 40% of the pre-lockdown levels, then an additional 18,000 deaths might occur

•    These projections are pessimistic, as acknowledged by the authors of the paper, but do effectively illustrate the sensitivity of the situation, and its potential severity, and therefore the care required to relax current lockdown measures across Europę

Imperial College forecast of additional deaths depending on mobility following lockdown relaxation from 1^st May 2020

	Additional deaths compared to lockdown vs. a x% return to pre-lockdown mobility
Region	x= 20%	x=40%
Piedmont	1,300	5,600
Veneto	930	4,100
Tuscany	370	1,800
Lazio	330	1,700
Lombardy	190	1,100
Liguria	160	760
Emilia-Romagna	130	650
Others	290	2,290
Total	3,700	18,000

Italy has reported c.30k COVID-19 related deaths (as of 7^,h May 2020)

Source: Using mobility to esbmate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnationat analysis v/ith futurę scenarios - Report 20 from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team. 04 May 2020; L.E.K. research and analysis

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