2949775137

Ostrava 8.-9. zan 2010

5. mezinarodni konference Rfzem a modelovdm finanćnfch rizik VŚB-TU Ostrava, Ekonomicka fakulta, katedra Financf

Ishikawa diagram, may prove useful. The cause and effect analysis allows us to precisely identify all the areas, in the construction contractors’ business activities, where risks are particularly intense [15]. This concems, first of all, such spheres as investment process organisation, selected technologies and techniąues, threats caused by acts of god (force majeure risk etc.) [15]. Moreover, attention should be drawn to the impact of modern IT Solutions in this area. Owing to appropriate Computer software (e.g. PRINCE 2), applied to project management, the risk identification process can be supported successfully. Expert Systems are particularly useful here. However, in practice, many companies (not only construction ones) in Poland use the simplest Solutions to identify risks, i.e. entrepreneurs use their knowledge, experience and intuition. An experienced project manager (risk manager) is able to recognise and define a risk, which an investment project may be exposed to, in the most accurate way. Also „(...) in many cases, the scope of identification is narrowed and it comprises, most freąuently:

•    an analysis of characteristics demonstrated by products and (or) services (marketing analysis), created by an investment project, as well as an analysis of planned technology (technical analysis) - such analyses may reveal various sources of market risks or technical risks,

•    an analysis of activities, resources and processes which an investment project involves (for example, an analysis of specific works and cost estimates, an analysis of contracts between participants of an investment process),

•    an analysis of historical data about investment projects which are similar, in type, size and lifecycle, to an analysed project - such information may be derived from various sources: documents describing a course of an investment process or a post-audit process, publications devoted to analyses of investment projects, which contain case studies, experiences of various entities (for example, consulting companies) or people involved in execution of the analysed investment project”[7].

In business practice, in order to ensure satisfactory effectiveness of risk identification, a number of methods may be used simultaneously. „It’s also important to make surę that the method applied allows us to identify a cause-effect relation of the risk”[16].

Conclusions

Despite the fact that many of the risk identification methods mentioned in this paper have some disadvantages, we should try to use them in business practice. Depending on the type of an investment project, project managers (possibly, risk managers) may freely select and modify many of these methods. „Effectiveness of risk identification methods used in investment projects means positive effects in this field. In terms of risk identification effects, we can, first of all, identify a source of risk, secondly, identify negative events which could possibly occur and lead to a failure, thirdly, indicate first symptoms of risk, and fourthly, inform about a need to take further, additional actions”[14]. Accurate identification of risk effects is particularly important as it ensures morę effective protection against risks i.e. by taking out extra insurance, creating reserves or e.g. reasonable risk distribution among investment project participants through contracts. „One should remember, however, that even a hedging transaction cannot completely eliminate a risk of suffering a loss, as it can only mitigate a potential size of this loss”[18].