New chalenges for EU

NEW THREATS FOR EUROPEAN UNION IN THE FACE OF

NEW CHALLENGES

COL dr Dariusz Majchrzak

National Defence University, Warsaw

Manager of Crisis Management Branch

d.majchrzak@aon.edu.pl

Challenges and threats in an organization

In a complex and globalized world a significant role is played by regional political

and economical organizations. One of such organizations is The European Union (EU),

which is a specific platform where independent states cooperate together in the area of

economic issues, what allow the EU to exchange goods, workers and lead common politics

including finance and security aspects. There is one main goal for states belonging to the

EU – to provide all members with economical and political security. Those two aspects

create balance for the EU. Economic cooperation should give the EU possibilities to be a

significant player on global scale, security activity inside and outside the EU gives the

opportunity for balanced development for people in member states.

The EU is an organization. Each organization can be described as a system, which

consists of people, technology, purposes (called mission) for functioning, structures and

coordinating elements. All those elements create subsystems for each organization

. The

definition by prof. Sienkiewicz explains a system as a every complex object highlighted

from the rest of reality, which is all created by a set of elementary objects (elements) and

links (relationships) between them

. The EU as a system is susceptible to external and

internal factors, which have great influence on its functioning. It seems to be possible to

find plenty of criteria to divide the factors and estimate their influence for the EU. All the

factors depend on economical political, sociological and environmental reality within and

out of the EU. This creates challenges and threats for the EU, which should aid

development as the end goal. Any given challenge is a signal to take appropriate action and

find possibilities of reaction to achieve benefits. This means that a new situation is being

Zob. J. Penc, Zarządzanie dla przyszłości. Twórcze kierowanie firmą (Management for the future. Creative

management company), Wydawnictwo Profesjonalnej Szkoły Biznesu, Cracow 1998, s. 22.

P. Sienkiewicz, Engineering of systems, Warsaw 1983, p. 27

created which demands taking some steps and reactions from the organization, as it poses a

warning and defines new point of view. Every challenge has great influence on each

organization and can cause either a positive or negative effect. Positive effect is a chance,

which is understood as the probability of achieving something. It is a factor which gives

opportunity for development of an organization. Negative effect on the other hand, usually

implies the emergence of threats, which is randomly or intentionally a significant factor

(event, phenomenon) for an organization. This may lead to destabilization and turbulence.

The term threats means the situation when there is a probability of a dangerous condition

appearance. That’s why threats can be a direct and significant reason to the commencement

of variable process, which can cause crisis situation, loss of control over reality and in

consequence – a crisis. It is the main reason to take action in order to prevent or react to

threats to avoid dangerous situations and crises. It is possible to show a lot of threats,

which can be grouped in collections accordingly with criteria. There are plenty of splits but

the most profound it seems to be by rendered by sources and causes. Following this idea, it

is possible to distinguish:

Natural threats which include biological, geological (tectonically), climate,

cosmological and similar issues.

Technical - fire, contamination, catastrophe, communication and building

disasters etc.

Sociological - terrorism, migrations, social unrest, military conflicts, riots etc.

Civilizations - diseases, drug addictions, urban development, new ideas,

unemployment, organized crime etc.

Another category are environmental threats. They can be related to natural causes

(eg. climate), technical (eg. emissions), social (eg. overcrowding), or civilization (eg.

urbanization).

Thus, it seems to be reasonable to say, that all activity of the independent states

should have one main aim – to protect people, environment and property against the

threats, which is the basic definition of national security. There are plenty definitions and

approaches to security theory, and it is not a matter of this article. But it is needed to reflect

what meaning of national security is in the wider aspect of European security. National

security concept gives prominence to the state as a subject responsible for security. There

are two main approaches to security: one includes the role of a state, the next highlights the

G. Sobolewski [red.], Zagrożenia kryzysowe (Crisis management), AON, Warsaw 2011, p. 26.

nation. State security is defined as actions aiming at organized protection and defence

against threats, and the immediate relation of defence potential to the scale of threats

State security is should be designed for each state according to its needs, and harmonize all

kind of needs (individual, group, public, national and state), taking into account all

factors

. This creates new approaches connected with nations, and expands the idea of

security on values and needs of individuals and various social groups. National security

can be thus defined as the ability of the state and the people to provide possibilities to

survive, to retain one’s own territory, political independence, internal stability and

accepted life standards. This is possible due to both negative activity (aiming at combating

threats) and positive activity that creates development conditions to develop.

Taking into account the definition of national defense system, as an internally

coordinated set of elements of organizational, human and material inter-related and up to

defend the state, and also the definition given by the Dictionary of National Security - a set

of internally structured and interrelated elements, people, organizations, facilities, working

to preserve military security (military) of state

, one can conclude by analogy that the

European security system is the coordinated internally set of organizational elements

(states and organizations), human and material inter-related and up to defend the

European Union.

The EU is a system and organization but it is reasonable to consider a question

whether the EU can be regard as a subject of IR, and can be described as a unity influenced

by all kind of threats? European Union is not a state. The EU is typical political and

economical organization and it can be considered in this reality only. When challenges and

threats for the EU are described, the classification is constrained to natural and

technological aspects, which are under protection of member stares individually. Let’s try

to regard the EU as a one coherent organization on the strategic level where sociological

and civilizations threats analysis will be emphasized.

Słownik z zakresu bezpieczeństwa narodowego (National security dictionary), AON, Warsaw 2010, p. 16.

W. Kitler, Bezpieczeństwo narodowe. Podstawowe kategorie, dylematy pojęciowe i próba systematyzacji,

(National security, term’s dilemmas and systematization) Zeszyt Problemowy nr 1 (61)2010, TWO, Warsaw
2010, p. 16.

B. Balcerowicz, J. Pawłowski, Dictionary of National Security, Warsaw 2002, p. 141.

Challenges for the EU

According to the statement issued by Foreign Ministers’ group 15 June 2012, main

challenges for the future of Europe lie in overcoming the economic, financial and debt

crises. But it is also underlined that crisis management alone is not enough. The EU should

be deeply convinced that charting a course for the future of Europe beyond the current

crises, will ultimately help to solve the pressing challenges immediately ahead. The EU

needs decisive steps on the basis of the three pillars of fiscal consolidation,

competitiveness and growth, and solidarity. In order to improve its political capacity for

action, the EU needs to achieve a stronger pooling of sovereignty in the medium-term in

some areas.

The next challenge is the issue that alongside practical reform steps to overcome the

current crisis, citizens need to be convinced that the EU can play a decisive role in

maintaining our interests and values globally, and contribute to resolving global

challenges. The EU needs to demonstrate that it is capable to respond to global challenges

and speak with one voice on central questions on the international agenda, at the same time

respecting the subsidiarity of countries and regions

The next challenge for the EU is the changing European awareness. Europe is

sometimes seen as part of the problem rather than part of the solution. What is more, the

existing “narrative” of the European Union as an instrument for banishing war in Europe is

no longer sufficient for today’s “Erasmus generation”. The state members must realize

about gains of existing common market and freedom of movement for citizens. This, in a

simple way can bring benefits for all member states and the EU as a whole. New political

and economic global players are gaining more influence. In dealing with these new

powerhouses, the EU will only be able to uphold our values and pursue our interests

effectively, if we pool our strengths much more both internally and in dealing with the

outside world.

Moreover, multiculturalism is the result of multinationality of the EU and the

history of the continent. Variety of cultures demands to finding common values, which

would be the base for common politics, external directions and economy, including the

financial dimension. Multiculturalism is caused by migrations of people as well. This

phenomena can be observed within the EU and outside the borders. People are looking for

The time for a debate on the Future of Europe is now, Foreign Ministers’ group on the Future of Europe

Chairman’s Statement for an Interim Report, 15 June 2012, p. 2.

better conditions for their life, and when this fact becomes uncontrolled, special solutions

must be fond to gain positive effect.

Financial, economical and geopolitical factors are the most important as a challenge

for the EU, as they make the distribution of power in the world is shift. As a possible

result, the transatlantic cooperation can be a weaker, unpredictable reality, globalizations

could happen, which has influence on new processes of regionalization. It is extremely

important for the EU to be able to face such challenges, to avoid new threats and develop.

The EU as a system has own measures of facing challenges and threats. It is possible

to show the European security system as a coordinated internally set of organizational

elements (states and organizations), human and material inter-related. In that case the

essence of the European security system are the international and the national

elements, which exist in many subsystems together with links between them and the

information center for decisions - IT (management subsystem). The EU has

possibilities to manage crisis situations. Using European bodies the EU is able to take

action in non-military, military, inner and external dimensions.

Crisis response system in the EU

The most important for security of the EU is introduced by Maastricht Treaty 1992,

Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), where all the EU states expressed their will

to reinforce national civil and military potentials to take action in the future areas of

possible crisis operations. The turning point in security policy was the EU Council meeting

held in Helsinki in December 1999, where the European Headline Goal – EHG was

adopted and a new element, the European Security Defense Policy (ESDP) was introduced

enabling the EU to take action of both political and military nature on the grounds of the

“Petersberg Tasks”. A new organization within CFSP, introduced by Lisbon Treaty, is the

European External Action Service, that supports the High Representative.

Taking into account the above content we could point that the essence of CSDP is

the cooperation between the EU states under control of common EU institutions in

order to increase the role of EU in the European security zone by deployment of

troops and resources of Member States in order to build conditions for political,

military, inner and external reaction. It is also indispensible to prepare military

structures to take action of both political and military nature.

Let’s then consider how the European system of security within CSDP works. All

matters are based on multinational agreement. A modern position of the EU demands to

have possibilities to respond in case of various threats

The EU’s most significant body of decision makers on CSDP, is the European

Council, a meeting forum of heads of states and governments (presidents and / or prime

ministers) of all the EU countries with the European Commission President. The European

Council meets, in principle, two times a year to agree the overall EU policy and to assess

the progress of its implementation. Often the meetings are called "peaks". The European

Council in its competence affects the requests from the European Commission and takes

binding decisions by 'qualified majority', consensuses and unanimously, especially in

matters of CFSP police, as well as the judicial cooperation in criminal matters, but each

state has the right of a veto. This is the reason for main problems and misunderstanding

between the Members States. It is very difficult to find common interest in foreign policy

among states form different regions, and what is more significant, it is extremely difficult

to justify unpopular decision to public opinion in own country. The European Council

takes decisions in all the dimensions.

Within a few years, there have been attempts to improve the way decisions are made

within the framework of ESDP. The key decisions, however, still require an unanimous

vote, which was not easy since the time when the EU had 15 members,

and now when there are 27 is even more difficult. Despite the involvement of members of

governments of each state in ESDP, they sometimes find that a change in national policy in

the name of the EU solidarity is not easy. To see how difficult the task sometimes is, it is

enough to look at the deep divisions among the EU Member States that formed in spring

2003 against the approval of the UN Security Council led by the United States war in Iraq.

The Council of the European Union, formerly called the Council of Ministers,

includes the ministers of the governments of all the EU countries. The council meets

regularly to take detailed decisions and to adopt the EU law. Council’s main tasks include

enacting EU legislation, coordinating the broad economic policies of the EU Member

States, signing agreements between the EU and other countries, approving the annual EU

budget, developing the Foreign And Defense Policy and coordinating the cooperation

between courts and police forces of the Member States. The EU Council is a very

important body that deals with the matters of CFSP and CSDP. The special role in the area

of foreign policy and external dimension has the Foreign Affairs Council which replaced

the Council for General Affairs and External Relations (GAREC), and it is the meeting of

foreign ministers of the Members State.

The European Commission is a politically independent institution that represents

and promotes the interests of the European Union as a whole. It formulates draft

legislation, political projects, programs and is responsible for implementing the decisions

of Parliament and the Council. In the matter of security, the Commission is responsible

mainly for the inertial and external dimension of all activities of the EU. The

Commission's task is to represent and protect the interests of the whole Union. The

Commission oversees and implements the EU’s policies in particular areas by presenting

proposals for new legislation to Parliament, the Council, and the management of the EU’s

budget. It also allocates resources, enforces the EU’s law (together with the Court of

Justice), represents the EU internationally, for example by negotiating agreements

between the EU and other countries.

In addition, within the Commission certain mechanisms are located, which are

helpful and responsible for internal security: the Instrument for Stability, Civil Protection

Mechanism and Financial Instrument for Civil Protection. On 15

November 2006, there

was established the so-called Instrument for Stability

which replaced the rapid reaction

mechanism (the external dimension). The instrument was established to allow the EU to

take organized action against crisis situation in foreign countries. This initiative gives

abilities to the EU to form long term strategies in the aspect of external relationships and

relations. The strategies take measures in the development of financial, economic and

technical cooperation with countries outside the EU, first of all in a crisis situation or the

beginning of a crisis situation - to restore properly the conditions for cooperation and

implementation of common regional politics. The second case is when the conditions are

stable. In that case the EU builds potential to fight against the global and transregional

threats that destabilize international order and ensure a stabile condition before and after

given crisis situation. The catalogue of tasks to define engagement of the EU is created

within the Instrument for Stability. The catalogue contains: support in a crisis situation;

help in a stabile conditions; extraordinary measures to intervene, and reaction programs.

Regulation (EC) No 1717/2006 of the European Parliament and the Council of 15 November 2006

establishing an Instrument for Stability.

The Civil Protection Mechanism was established on 19

December 1997

. The role

of the Mechanism is to increase the level of coordination within the European

Communities, the Member States and the European Commission through procedures and

organizational structures. The Mechanism is a typical project in the inertial dimension.

This cooperation allows the European Commission carrying out the tasks to protect the

environment and sustain social development. The Civil Protection Mechanism is a subject

to the Unit of Civil Protection (Civil Protection Unit, the CPU), which is subject to the

Directorate General for the Environment.

To improve the coordination of civil protection, actions were undertaken in case of

natural disasters, technological, radiological contamination in the marine waters and the

effects of terrorist attacks that could have happened in the European Union and beyond. On

November 2007, a new Mechanism Civil Protection formula was given. Within this

Mechanism, there has been created, among others, the Monitoring and Information Centre

(MIC) and the Common Emergency Communication and Information System, CECIS.

The support element of both initiatives is the Financial Instrument for Civil

Protection, which gives public the protection by providing financial assistance. The

instrument was established on 5

March 2007 by the European Union at the request of the

European Commission, taking into account the European Parliament

. Its purpose is to

raise effectiveness of the European Union to respond in the event of an emergency

situation such as natural disasters and disasters caused by man, acts of terrorism, including

chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear terrorism, and technical disasters. The

instrument allows to improve all preventive and preparatory measures in case of any

emergency situation.

The European Parliament is the only Community institution that is elected in

general elections. Depending on the population, the number of seats for each Member State

is predicted. The Members of Parliament sit in political groups rather than national.

Parliament directs the work of the President, who is elected by the plenary. The Parliament

meets in session mode, and the sessions last for a year. The European Parliament has three

main functions:

−

legislative (debates over the European law and adopts it together with the

Council);

Council Decision 98/22/EC of 19 December 1997 establishing a Community action programme in the field

of civil protection.

Council Decision of 5 March 2007 establishing Civil Protection Financial Instrument, Official Journal L

071, 03/10/2007 P. 0009-0017. It covers the period from 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2013.

−

budget (debates over the EU budget and adopts it with the Council);

−

control (supervises other EU institutions, in particular the Commission, to

ensure that they operate in a democratic way).

The first permanently functioning body of the ESDP is the Political and Security

Committee (PSC) established by the Council Decision of 22 January 2001, consisting of

ambassadors, permanent representatives of the Member States who meet two or three times

a week in Brussels. The Committee is responsible for monitoring the international

situation. It is a key element of the ESDP. In the event of a crisis, the PSC plays a decisive

role in the explicit expression of a coherent EU response and is responsible for political

oversight and decision-making at the strategic level about the use of troops. The

Committee in its activities provides, within the framework of ESDP, a platform for the

operation and cooperation of numerous EU institutions, NATO and non-EU countries. In

addition, the responsibilities of the Committee is to monitor the progress of the military

operation carried out by the militant groups and to exercise political control over the

compliance of the objectives in their operational activity and inform the Council about the

course of action. The Committee provides its activity in the external, military and non

military dimension.

The highest military body within the framework of ESDP is the EU Military

Committee (MC), which is composed of the Chiefs of Defense of the Member States,

represented by their military representatives. The Committee operates on the principle of

arrangements and agreements in the framework of the Political and Security Committee.

Its primary purpose is to make arrangements and coordinate the work of the military

among the EU countries, according to the direction set by the Standing Committee of

Safety, and to direct all military projects. In addition, the Military Committee sets the

directions of transformations in the activities of the military community. Moreover, the

Military Committee directs the military activities of the UE battle groups. The Military

Committee Chairman shall attend the EU council, where final decisions on the use of battle

groups are taken. MC functions in the military dimensions of security policy.

Directly subordinate to the Military Committee is the EU Military Staff (EU MS),

which is responsible for the conduct of military expertise in the framework of ESDP. The

Staff in coordination with the Military Committee (as its subordinate body) evaluates the

current situation to establish urgently a mechanism for immediate response, strategic

planning within the framework of the “Petersberg Tasks”, including the possibility of

determining the national and international forces in accordance with the provisions of the

Military Committee. The Military Staff is involved in strategic planning concerning

quantity, location and time of use of the combat groups. EU MS is strictly engaged in the

military component of Common Security and Defense Policy.

The combined Situation Centre (SITCEN) plays a leading role in distributing

significant information to the other EU institutions, especially those taking part in crisis

management. The Department of Analysis of the Situation Centre collects and provides

intelligence analysis from all sources. The classified intelligence reports are provided to

the main decision-makers of ESDP. The tasks in this area are strongly supported by the EU

Satellite Centre and the Intelligence Directorate of the EU Military Staff

. The analyses

made by the centre serve both military and non military dimensions.

The Committee for Civilian Aspects of Crisis Management is a body set by the

EU Council Decision of 22

May 2002. Its mission is: to analyze the development of

crises, and prepare proposals on how to deal with a crisis situation through the means at the

disposal of the EU planning civilian operations in the CFSP. This authority shall forward

the Political Security options and proposals of capabilities for civilian use in EU-led

operations

The aforementioned main institutions and organizations of CFSP do not yet

constitute a comprehensive, full list. Among additional components we can mention also

the European Defense Agency, which provides research programs in the area of security,

or the Member States’ own security systems and other solutions in the area.

A series of relationships and interrelations should be established between the

elements creating a security system, as they will enhance the consistency of the entire

system. (Figure 1).

J. Gryz, system reagowania kryzysowego Unii Europejskiej (Respons system of European Union), Toruń

2010, p. 101.

Ibidem, p. 98.

Figure 1 Crisis response system of the EU

Source: authors’ elaboration

The European Security System works in four dimensions. The leading role is played

by the European Council in creating a common security system, along with coordinating

and controlling the behavior of individual states of the community. Except of the European

Council main bodies within Common Security Defence Policy (CSDP) are the Council of

the European Union at the level of Foreign Ministers; the European Commission including

Secretary General and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy; the

Political and Security Committee of Ambassadors (political directors); the EU Military

Committee; and the Military Staff (EU MS).

The above mentioned main institutions and organizations, together with other on

decisive or executive level, are responsible for Common Foreign Security Policy (CFSP),

which includes CSDP and contributes to creating the system as a complete entity. All these

institutions should cooperate with each other and culminate all the efforts in ensuring

consistency of the entire system.

Future role of the EU

Taking into account the identified challenges, we can indicate the threats which have

the biggest influence on EU - understood as an existing, comprehensive system. The

European Security Strategy indicates nowadays the following threats for the EU

Terrorism which threats personal security of citizens and imposes large costs; it

seeks to undermine the openness and tolerance of our societies, and it poses a

growing strategic threat to the whole of Europe. Increasingly, terrorist movements

are well-resourced, connected by electronic networks, and are willing to use

unlimited violence to cause massive casualties.

Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction that explores the weaknesses of

solutions within international treaty regimes and export control arrangements,

although the emergence of which has significantly diminished the spread of

WMD and their delivery systems. Now, however, we are entering a new and

dangerous period that raises the possibility of a WMD arms race, especially in the

Middle East. Advances in biological sciences may increase the potential of

biological weapons in the coming.

Regional conflicts, which can cause direct or indirect threats for the EU. There

are examples of regions like Kashmir, the Middle East Region, Balkan region or

the Korean Peninsula with great direct or indirec impact on European interests.

Violent or “frozen” conflicts, which also persist on our borders, threaten regional

stability. They destroy human lives and social and physical infrastructures; they

threaten minorities, fundamental freedoms and human rights. Conflicts can lead to

extremisms, terrorism and state failure and provides opportunities for organized

crime development. Regional insecurity can also fuel the demand for WMD.

State failure caused by bad governance manifested by corruption, abuse of

power, weak institutions and lack of accountability. In some cases, this has

brought about the collapse of State institutions. Somalia, Liberia, Syria and

Afghanistan under the Taliban are the best known recent examples. Collapse of

the State can be associated with obvious threats, such as organized crime or

terrorism. State failure is an alarming phenomenon, that undermines global

governance, and adds to regional instability.

A secure Europe in a better world. European security strategy Brussels, 12 December 2003

Organized crime which is for Europe very dangerous threats. Europe is a prime

target for organized crime because of its financial and economical potential. This

internal threat to EU security has an important external dimension: cross-border

trafficking in drugs, women, illegal migrants and weapons accounts for a large

part of the activities of criminal gangs. It can have links with terrorism as well.

All of them affect the EU. According to conducted research

, asymmetric threats are

most probably to affect security of the EU. As most likely to happen, the risks associated

with the global economic crisis and terrorism were proven (Figure 2). The respondents

indicated these two categories as the most significant problems to face for the European

Union. The results indicate also greater importance of economic risks. It is significant that

all the threats can very easily turn into a military actions, because economy and finance

issues are often the reasons of the outbreak of conflicts and even full-scale wars.

Figure 2. Threats for the EU

Source: own elaboration.

If we confront the challenges and most possible threats described in the article, it

turns out that fiscal consolidation is a significant and crucial element for the EU to be an

equal economical player in the world. Global economic crisis, economical instability is the

threat which is extremely important for security of the EU and simultaneously gives a

chance to be a partner for other economical powers that include US and China, as

competitiveness and growth is an effect of fiscal consolidation. Those two factors help to

Research was conducted by the Author for the purpose of PhD dissertation Preparation of EU battle group

for conduct crisis response operation, AON, Warsaw 2009, before global and financial crises. The
respondents were military specialists in the total number of 91.

take political common action using all tools within CFSP and CSDP and some others

politics. This is helpful to decry the level of threats connected with unstable regional

powers or state failure. The most important condition in this area is to improve

mechanisms of decision making within the EU.

To achieve this, we must achieve the crucial conditions of overcoming the current

crisis. Using different measures (f.i. a financial pact) which express solidarity of the EU is

an answer here. Without changing European awareness, understood as achieving common

purposes and ensuring stable development for each member state, it is impossible to create

common politics restricting proliferation of weapon of mass destruction or organized

crime, since all member states will introduce their own interests only. European awareness

shouldn’t be treated as an instrument of banishing war in Europe, but one of the biggest

chances, shown in researches, of providing security and development for people.

Another important factor to introduce are multiculturalism solutions, which can

increase competitiveness of the EU in the economic and security area. These solutions

shouldn’t force any state or religious group to change their own identity, but on the other

hand, any of the group shouldn’t impose own habits to others. Influence of the challenges

and the threats has been summarized in the table below.

Challenges

Chances

Threats

Fiscal consolidation

Economic growth, global

economic player

Split of the EU, double-

paced development

Competitiveness and

growth

Common, coherent action as

one subject, improve

decision making mechanism

Becoming a non-significant

subject in the globalized

world

Solidarity

Assuring security, support

and coordination in case of

member states’ problems

Split of the EU

Overcoming the

current crisis

Economical security and

financial growth

Losing significant role as

economical partner

Changing of European

awareness

Coherent politics and

common action for securing

citizens

Weakness of the EU as a

one subject. Loosing

coherent purposes.

Multiculturalism

Integrity of the EU

Conflicts within the EU

For both civil and military environment, the modern asymmetric threats are the

challenge that influences the international security most vaguesly. This means that the

possibility of effective use of the troops and civilian measures will fulfill a key role not

only in times of crisis, but also during development of the situation before the crisis and

after it. More extended cooperation is required in all areas of Member States activities, as it

will allow to overcome the current financial crisis, to create opportunity for EU to become

global player and to improve possibilities to take practical and effective measures in the

key areas.

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The time for a debate on the Future of Europe is now, Foreign Ministers’ group on the
Future of Europe Chairman’s Statement for an Interim Report, 15 June 2012.