1. |
Obliczanie parametrów modelu trendu |
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Data |
Y |
t |
Y teoret |
szereg uwolniony yuw |
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a |
b |
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2006.03.30 |
10,75 |
1 |
15,18 |
-4,427 |
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-0,296 |
wartość parametru b
15,473 |
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2006.03.31 |
14,95 |
2 |
14,88 |
0,069 |
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0,202 |
1,485 |
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2006.04.03 |
18,30 |
3 |
14,59 |
3,715 |
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0,177 |
2,412 |
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2006.04.04 |
14,85 |
4 |
14,29 |
0,560 |
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2,151 |
10 |
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2006.04.05 |
14,80 |
5 |
13,99 |
0,806 |
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12,513 |
58,182 |
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2006.04.06 |
15,65 |
6 |
13,70 |
1,952 |
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2006.04.07 |
15,10 |
7 |
13,40 |
1,698 |
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2006.04.10 |
11,90 |
8 |
13,11 |
-1,206 |
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2006.04.11 |
9,25 |
9 |
12,81 |
-3,560 |
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2006.04.12 |
13,00 |
10 |
12,51 |
0,485 |
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2006.04.13 |
11,00 |
11 |
12,22 |
-1,219 |
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2006.04.18 |
13,05 |
12 |
11,92 |
1,127 |
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wariancja |
wariancja szeregu uwolnionego
4,849 |
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2. |
Obliczanie funkcji sinusoidalnych. Liczba tych funkcji wynosi zawsze n/2. |
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pierwsza harmonika obejmująca cały analizowany okres, czyli n=12`
1 harmonika |
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drugaa harmonika obejmująca połowę analizowanego okresu, czyli n=6
2 harmonika |
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t |
z=2*Pi/n *t
z=2Pi/12*t |
Sin(z) |
Cos(z) |
yuw*sin(z) |
yuw*cos(z) |
wartości harmonik obliczane wg wzoru: h=(a*sin)+(b*cos), wszystkie harmoniki obliczane są tak samo
h1 |
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z=2*Pi/n *t, gdzie n=6
2z |
Sin(z) |
Cos(z) |
yuw*sin(z) |
yuw*cos(z) |
h2 |
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1 |
0,524 |
0,500 |
0,866 |
-2,213 |
-3,834 |
-0,518 |
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1 |
1,047 |
0,866 |
0,500 |
-3,834 |
-2,213 |
-0,446 |
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2 |
1,047 |
0,866 |
0,500 |
0,060 |
0,034 |
0,316 |
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2 |
2,094 |
0,866 |
-0,500 |
0,060 |
-0,034 |
-0,679 |
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3 |
1,571 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
3,715 |
0,000 |
1,066 |
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3 |
3,142 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-3,715 |
-0,233 |
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4 |
2,094 |
0,866 |
-0,500 |
0,485 |
-0,280 |
1,530 |
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4 |
4,189 |
-0,866 |
-0,500 |
-0,485 |
-0,280 |
0,446 |
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5 |
2,618 |
0,500 |
-0,866 |
0,403 |
-0,698 |
1,584 |
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5 |
5,236 |
-0,866 |
0,500 |
-0,698 |
0,403 |
0,679 |
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6 |
3,142 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-1,952 |
1,214 |
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6 |
6,283 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
1,952 |
0,233 |
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7 |
3,665 |
-0,500 |
-0,866 |
-0,849 |
-1,470 |
0,518 |
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7 |
7,330 |
0,866 |
0,500 |
1,470 |
0,849 |
-0,446 |
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8 |
4,189 |
-0,866 |
-0,500 |
1,045 |
0,603 |
-0,316 |
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8 |
8,378 |
0,866 |
-0,500 |
-1,045 |
0,603 |
-0,679 |
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9 |
4,712 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
3,560 |
0,000 |
-1,066 |
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9 |
9,425 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
3,560 |
-0,233 |
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10 |
5,236 |
-0,866 |
0,500 |
-0,420 |
0,243 |
-1,530 |
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10 |
10,472 |
-0,866 |
-0,500 |
-0,420 |
-0,243 |
0,446 |
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11 |
5,760 |
-0,500 |
0,866 |
0,609 |
-1,056 |
-1,584 |
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11 |
11,519 |
-0,866 |
0,500 |
1,056 |
-0,609 |
0,679 |
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12 |
6,283 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
1,127 |
-1,214 |
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12 |
12,566 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
1,127 |
0,233 |
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Suma |
6,395 |
-7,283 |
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Suma |
-3,897 |
1,400 |
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Wartość parametrów |
parametr a = 2/n * suma(sin * y), gdzie n=12 w każdej harmonice
1,066 |
parametr b = 2/n * suma(cos * y), gdzie n=12 w każdej harmonice
-1,214 |
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Wartość parametrów |
-0,649 |
0,233 |
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trzecia harmonika obejmująca jedna trzecią analizowanego okresu, czyli n=4
3 harmonika |
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czwarta harmonika obejmująca jedną czwartą analizowanego okresu, czyli n=3
4 harmonika |
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t |
z=2*Pi/n *t, gdzie n=4
3z |
Sin(z) |
Cos(z) |
yuw*sin(z) |
yuw*cos(z) |
h3 |
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z=2*Pi/n *t, gdzie n=3
4z |
Sin(z) |
Cos(z) |
yuw*sin(z) |
yuw*cos(z) |
h4 |
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1 |
1,571 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
-4,427 |
0,000 |
-1,896 |
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1 |
2,094 |
0,866 |
-0,500 |
-3,834 |
2,213 |
-0,421 |
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2 |
3,142 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-0,069 |
0,338 |
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2 |
4,189 |
-0,866 |
-0,500 |
-0,060 |
-0,034 |
-0,388 |
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3 |
4,712 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-3,715 |
0,000 |
1,896 |
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3 |
6,283 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
3,715 |
0,808 |
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4 |
6,283 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
0,560 |
-0,338 |
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4 |
8,378 |
0,866 |
-0,500 |
0,485 |
-0,280 |
-0,421 |
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5 |
7,854 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
0,806 |
0,000 |
-1,896 |
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5 |
10,472 |
-0,866 |
-0,500 |
-0,698 |
-0,403 |
-0,388 |
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6 |
9,425 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-1,952 |
0,338 |
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6 |
12,566 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
1,952 |
0,808 |
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7 |
10,996 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-1,698 |
0,000 |
1,896 |
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7 |
14,661 |
0,866 |
-0,500 |
1,470 |
-0,849 |
-0,421 |
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8 |
12,566 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
-1,206 |
-0,338 |
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8 |
16,755 |
-0,866 |
-0,500 |
1,045 |
0,603 |
-0,388 |
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9 |
14,137 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
-3,560 |
0,000 |
-1,896 |
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9 |
18,850 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
-3,560 |
0,808 |
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10 |
15,708 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-0,485 |
0,338 |
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10 |
20,944 |
0,866 |
-0,500 |
0,420 |
-0,243 |
-0,421 |
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11 |
17,279 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
1,219 |
0,000 |
1,896 |
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11 |
23,038 |
-0,866 |
-0,500 |
1,056 |
0,609 |
-0,388 |
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12 |
18,850 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
1,127 |
-0,338 |
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12 |
25,133 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
1,127 |
0,808 |
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Suma |
-11,375 |
-2,025 |
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Suma |
-0,115 |
4,850 |
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Wartość parametrów |
-1,896 |
-0,338 |
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Wartość parametrów |
-0,019 |
0,808 |
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piąta harmonika obejmująca jedną piątą analizowanego okresu, czyli n=2,4
5 harmonika |
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szósta harmonika obejmująca jedną szóstą analizowanego okresu, czyli n=2
6 harmonika |
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t |
z=2*Pi/n *t, gdzie n=2,4
5z |
Sin(z) |
Cos(z) |
yuw*sin(z) |
yuw*cos(z) |
h5 |
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z=2*Pi/n *t, gdzie n=2
6z |
Sin(z) |
Cos(z) |
yuw*sin(z) |
yuw*cos(z) |
h6 |
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1 |
2,618 |
0,500 |
-0,866 |
-2,213 |
3,834 |
-0,648 |
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1 |
3,142 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
4,427 |
-0,498 |
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2 |
5,236 |
-0,866 |
0,500 |
-0,060 |
0,034 |
-0,016 |
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2 |
6,283 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
0,069 |
0,498 |
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3 |
7,854 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
3,715 |
0,000 |
0,676 |
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3 |
9,425 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-3,715 |
-0,498 |
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4 |
10,472 |
-0,866 |
-0,500 |
-0,485 |
-0,280 |
-1,155 |
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4 |
12,566 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
0,560 |
0,498 |
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5 |
13,090 |
0,500 |
0,866 |
0,403 |
0,698 |
1,324 |
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5 |
15,708 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-0,806 |
-0,498 |
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6 |
15,708 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-1,952 |
-1,139 |
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6 |
18,850 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
1,952 |
0,498 |
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7 |
18,326 |
-0,500 |
0,866 |
-0,849 |
1,470 |
0,648 |
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7 |
21,991 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
-1,698 |
-0,498 |
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8 |
20,944 |
0,866 |
-0,500 |
-1,045 |
0,603 |
0,016 |
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8 |
25,133 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
-1,206 |
0,498 |
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9 |
23,562 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
3,560 |
0,000 |
-0,676 |
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9 |
28,274 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
3,560 |
-0,498 |
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10 |
26,180 |
0,866 |
0,500 |
0,420 |
0,243 |
1,155 |
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10 |
31,416 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
0,485 |
0,498 |
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11 |
28,798 |
-0,500 |
-0,866 |
0,609 |
1,056 |
-1,324 |
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11 |
34,558 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
1,219 |
-0,498 |
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12 |
31,416 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
1,127 |
1,139 |
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12 |
37,699 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
1,127 |
0,498 |
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Suma |
4,056 |
6,833 |
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Suma |
0,000 |
5,975 |
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Wartość parametrów |
0,676 |
1,139 |
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Wartość parametrów |
parametr a = 1/n * suma(sin * y), gdzie n=12
0,000 |
parametr b = 1/n * suma(cos * y), gdzie n=12
0,498 |
Uwaga: Inaczej obliczane parametry w ostatniej harmonice |
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Wielkości amplitud |
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nr harmoniki |
ai |
bi |
ai2 |
bi2 |
ai2+bi2 |
wielkośc amplitudy dla poszczególnych harmonik obliczana wg wzoru: A=pierwiastek(a2+b2)
Ai |
stopień wyjaśnienia zmiennej objaśnianej y obliczany wg wzoru:
w = (a2+b2)/2*wariancja
dla wszystkich harmonik oprócz ostatniej, która obliczana jest wg wzoru:
w = (a2+b2)/wariancja
wi |
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1 |
1,066 |
-1,214 |
1,136 |
1,474 |
2,609 |
1,615 |
26,909% |
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2 |
-0,649 |
0,233 |
0,422 |
0,054 |
0,476 |
0,690 |
4,911% |
Wybiera się tylko najważniejsze harmoniki, czyli te które najlepiej wyjaśniają zmienną objaśnianą |
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3 |
-1,896 |
-0,338 |
3,594 |
0,114 |
3,708 |
1,926 |
38,238% |
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4 |
-0,019 |
0,808 |
0,000 |
0,653 |
0,654 |
0,809 |
6,741% |
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5 |
0,676 |
1,139 |
0,457 |
1,297 |
1,754 |
1,324 |
18,087% |
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6 |
0,000 |
0,498 |
0,000 |
0,248 |
0,248 |
0,498 |
5,113% |
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Suma |
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100% |
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Przesunięcie fazowe |
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nr harmoniki |
2Pi/n *i |
ai/bi |
arctg(ai/bi) |
łi |
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1 |
0,524 |
-0,878 |
-0,721 |
-1,376 |
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2 |
1,047 |
-2,784 |
-1,226 |
-1,171 |
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3 |
1,571 |
5,617 |
1,395 |
0,888 |
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4 |
2,094 |
-0,024 |
-0,024 |
-0,011 |
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5 |
2,618 |
0,594 |
0,536 |
0,205 |
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6 |
3,142 |
0,000 |
0,000 |
0,000 |
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Wartości prognoz: |
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W tym zadaniu wybrano harmoniki nr 1, 3 i 5 |
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obliczono wartości 2Pi/n *T, gdzie T= 13,14 i 15, ponieważ w zadaniu należy policzyc prognozę na trzy kolejne okresy.
sin 2Pi/12*t |
cos 2Pi/12*t |
sin 2Pi/4*t |
cos 2Pi/4*t |
sin 2Pi/2,4*t |
cos 2Pi/2,4*t |
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okres |
13 |
0,500 |
0,866 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
0,500 |
-0,866 |
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okres |
14 |
0,866 |
0,500 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
-0,866 |
0,500 |
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okres |
15 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
-1,000 |
0,000 |
1,000 |
0,000 |
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user:
Obliczenie wartości prognozy wg wzoru Y* = b+a *T + (a*sin + b*cos) |
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okres |
13 |
8,56 |
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okres |
14 |
11,97 |
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okres |
15 |
14,67 |
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2006.03.30 |
10,75 |
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2006.03.31 |
14,95 |
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2006.04.03 |
18,30 |
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2006.04.04 |
14,85 |
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2006.04.05 |
14,80 |
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2006.04.06 |
15,65 |
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2006.04.07 |
15,10 |
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2006.04.10 |
11,90 |
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2006.04.11 |
9,25 |
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2006.04.12 |
13,00 |
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2006.04.13 |
11,00 |
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2006.04.18 |
13,05 |
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2006.04.19 |
8,56 |
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2006.04.20 |
11,97 |
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2006.04.21 |
14,67 |
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