13

Outlook:

The Next Five Years

13.1

Remaining Technological Challenges

13.2

The Next Five Years

Automotive Applications

• Stationary Power • Portable Power

13.3

Conclusion

The previous chapters, in particular Chapters 8 through 10, have dealt with the current status of fuel cell
development towards practical systems. As we have seen, a remarkable range of commercial and pre-
commercial stationary power systems, pre-commercial portable and, primarily, automotive systems now
exists. Chapter 11 indicated that automotive fuel cell systems face stiff competition from developments
such as hybrid cars but most of all from conventional cars with improved internal combustion engines
and exhaust cleanup. So, are we going to see fuel-cell-powered cars in the showrooms by 2004? Will fuel
cell domestic boiler replacements be available from 2003 onwards, and will we be doing away with power
supplies for small portable electronic systems in the next few months?

If the author of the above lines knew the answer to these questions, he would be earning his living at

the stock exchange or as a venture capitalist. But looking back at the fundamental principles and
remaining problems of fuel cell technology, which have been discussed in earlier chapters, one is able to
make a judgment as to what may happen in the years to come. Let us review a few key problems of fuel
cell technology and then look at a likely scenario for the next five years.

13.1 Remaining Technological Challenges

Performance of hydrogen-powered fuel cells on the whole is impressive. This holds for proton exchange
membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) as well as for molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFCs) and solid oxide fuel
cells (SOFCs). Yet, further improvements should be made because they will directly impact on manu-
facturing cost. Cost is partly affected by materials (hence the importance of power density). However,
the current cost of fuel cells may also be higher than it should be as a result of immature manufacturing
technology. Key developers are currently addressing this problem, and one may expect rapid progress in
cost reduction through a large degree of automation. This, of course, will go hand in hand with volume
production. It is likely that the PEMFC will lead this process. The cost of tubular SOFC technology is
high, which has led to a wide range of new, planar SOFC developments. Yet, apart from Sulzer Hexis,
developers have produced few prototypes at most and are still well away from field trials, which may
reveal additional materials and performance problems.

There is still a fuel storage and distribution problem for cars and probably for portable applications

as well. Despite higher storage capacities demonstrated in a large number of prototype cars (see Chapter
10), developers appear to be turning away from liquid hydrogen in favor of compressed hydrogen.

Gregor Hoogers

Trier University of Applied Sciences,
Umwelt-Campus Birkenfeld

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

This has resulted in reduced drive ranges, which consumers are unlikely to accept. Progress is being
made with lightweight high-pressure tanks. But it is not impossible that other alternatives will emerge
— see Chapter 5.

In parallel with hydrogen storage, the leading developers also pursue liquid fuels. Methanol reformer

technology has come a long way and has been explored by many. In contrast, the reforming of sulfur-
free hydrocarbon fuel is not quite ready yet, although considerable efforts are being made, primarily in
close cooperation with oil-producing companies (Shell, Exxon). Both liquid fuels have disadvantages,
and both are considered to be intermediates to a hydrogen economy. Compare Chapter 12.

Fuel storage for portable systems depends on whether hydrogen or methanol is used. (These systems

— except auxiliary power units, APUs — will be based on PEMFC technology). Metal hydrides need to
become cheaper, and a distribution system would have to be created for small electronics based on
hydrogen. Methanol is more readily handled but again, where would one buy the required cartridges for
consumer products? APUs for cars were discussed in the context of portable systems – Chapter 9. These
constitute an exception as they will mostly be based on gasoline fuel and planar SOFC technology.

In the long run, fuel needs to come from renewable sources. This problem is not unique to fuel cells,

but it needs to be addressed.

What do these issues — which are just a few on the list — mean for commercialization?

13.2 The Next Five Years

As Graham Hards (Johnson Matthey) once put it, “those working in the technology have seen a number
of false dawns” arising. But when cross-checking developers’ press statements against (known) technology
challenges such as those discussed in Section 13.1, a number of applications emerge where fuel cell
technology will be realized in the next few years. Of course, what follows should be seen as the personal
view of the author.

Automotive Applications

Commuter buses will operate in at least ten European and several North American urban centers, as well
as in a number of Asian and South American cities. These buses will be powered by hydrogen stored in
pressure tanks and will go more or less unnoticed, as they perform just as well as diesel engines do, apart
from being remarkably quiet. In the evening, these buses will be refueled at central depots in a few
minutes. A number of officials and leading business figures in particularly forward-looking cities will
use the same or similar filling stations for their business or delivery vehicles. These vehicles will be
particularly welcome on days when cars with emissions worse than SULEV standards are banned from
certain inner cities. One may also see the odd fuel-cell-powered motorbike, and the first reformer-based
fuel cell vehicles will be available for limited testing in a few selected cities, but they will only run on
special fuels available at a handful of filling stations.

Stationary Power

Renewables are one of the few rapidly growing business sectors, and developers are working hard to forge
a link between renewables and fuel cell technology in order to put power generation on a sustainable
basis. In the next five years, the next five or ten biogas fuel cells will operate worldwide, and active research
will take place on wood and biomass gasifiers for hydrogen production. Wind power will be used to
generate hydrogen in some locations, while solar hydrogen will be produced in others to power a small
fleet of vehicles.

Additional stationary power plants, running off natural gas, will be operated by industries requiring

heat and power and by businesses that are particularly vulnerable to power cuts.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC

The first homes will now mainly be powered by natural-gas-based fuel cell systems. The liberalized

power market has led to more and more frequent power outages, and fuel-cell-based and other power
backup systems as well as combined heat and power systems will be in great demand.

Portable Power

Cellular phone technology will be making further progress in changing over to mobile web access,
and transmitters will be springing up all over the industrialized world. Some of these will be run grid
independently from remote power generators. Other will feature back-up power supply from fuel-
cell-based systems.

Auxiliary power units will not be found in more than a handful of vehicles, but the owners of yachts

and large motor homes will become very interested in buying these quiet power generators.

Consumer electronics will still largely be powered by ever-improving rechargeable batteries, although

methanol-fueled small power units will be available in this power range. They will mainly be used where
grid independence is required, e.g., by reporters, researchers, and the military in remote locations, and
in other niche applications — compare Chapter 9.

13.3 Conclusion

Ample market opportunities exist for fuel cell technology but not always where previously expected or
as soon as expected. Many niche applications are currently emerging, which will be followed by the mass
markets. They will be served by start-up companies and by three or four leading developers, which have
already teamed up with specialists in these markets. It will be exciting to see which companies will
ultimately hold their ground, but one thing is clear even at this stage: fuel cells are here to stay.

© 2003 by CRC Press LLC