RESEARCH TEAM
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Senior Market Strategist
DAILY
TECHNICAL
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT
Senior Analyst
REPORT
03 October 2012
Cedric Poretti
Analyst
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
STRATEGY / ENTRY OBJECTIVE /
DIRECTION TIMEFRAME STOP ENTERED
POSITION LEVELS COMMENTS
S-TERM
EUR / USD Await fresh signal.
S-TERM
GBP / USD Await fresh signal.
S-TERM Long 3 78.18 79.47/80.62/83.00 76.89 20/09/2012
USD / JPY
S-TERM
USD / CHF Await fresh signal.
S-TERM
USD / CAD Await fresh signal.
AUD / USD S-TERM Short 2 1.0430 0.9980/0.9820 1.0340 11/09/2012
S-TERM
GBP / JPY Await fresh signal.
S-TERM Long 3 99.81 102.12/103.86/107.5 97.5 01/10/2012
EUR / JPY
EUR / GBP S-TERM Await fresh signal.
S-TERM Long 3 1.2121 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474 1.1998 18/09/2012
EUR / CHF
GOLD S-TERM Short 3 1775 1733/1690/1657 1817 27/09/2012
SILVER S-TERM Await fresh signal.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade.
When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 2 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
EUR / USD
Failed to break resistance at 1.2971.
" EUR/USD movedhigher than its short-term
down trendline yesterday but failed to break the
resistance at 1.2971 (25/09/2012 high). Monitor
the test of the hourly support at 1.2876 (see also
up trendline). Key horizontal support at 1.2755
(11/09/2012 low).
" Despite the recent sharp rise from 1.2043, the
long-term trend is still negative as long as the
down trendline linking the May 2011 high with
the August 2011 high (currently near 1.3284)
holds.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 3 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
GBP / USD
Monitor the test of the up trendline.
" GBP/USD is testing its up trendline. Given the
recent sharp decline (28 September) and the
current weak bounce, a short-term bearish bias is
favoured. Hourly resistance is at 1.6187.
" GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term
horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302
(30/04/2012 high) and by the long-term down
trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the
April 2011 top) suggest limited short-term
upside potential.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 4 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
USD / JPY
Grinding higher.
" USD/JPY continues to bounce since its 28
September low. The short-term resistance is at
78.46 (20/09/2012 high). Support is at 77.79.
" USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming
process and is oversold in the medium-term time
frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of
strength in the short-term. Medium-term
resistance is at 80.62.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 5 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
USD / CHF
Successful test of the support at 0.9329.
" USD/CHF weakened yesterday but tested
successfully its support at 0.9329 (25/09/2012
low). We remain cautious as long as prices
remain below the down trendline, as a potential
bearish head and shoulder could be underway.
" The break of the support at 0.9423 opens the
way for a medium-term move towards the next
horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens
the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8%
retracement of the decline from June 2010 to
August 2011) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high).
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 6 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
USD / CAD
Bullish breakout from triangle calls for
further short-term strength.
" USD/CAD broke to the upside out of a short-
term symmetrical triangle. The implied upside
potential is 0.9920. Support is at 0.9839.
" The succession of lower highs since March
2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Indeed,
the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way
for a medium-term move towards the strong
support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at
0.9949 is needed to negate this bias.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 7 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
AUD / USD
Sharp decline approaching key support
at 1.0177.
" AUD/USD declined sharply yesterday. It is now
close to its strong support at 1.0177. A break of
this level would confirm a bigger decline (see
potential medium-term double-top). Short-term
resistance is at 1.0329 (26/09/2012 low, see also
short-term down trendline).
" The proximity of the long-term down trendline,
coupled with medium-term oscillators near
overbought levels, favours a phase of weakness.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Short 2 at 1.0430, Objs: 0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0340 (Entered: 2012-09-11)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 8 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
GBP / JPY
Grinding higher.
" GBP/JPY has broken its support at 126.20
(07/09/2012 high) and has breached its short-
term up trendline. Monitor the short-term range
between 125.35 (26/09/2012 low) and 126.71
(25/09/2012 high).
" GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term
declining channel since April 2010. The sharp
reversal near the high of its rising channel
favours a medium-term move towards the strong
support at 123.70.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 9 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
EUR / JPY
Testing resistance at 101.05.
" EUR/JPY continues to rise after the successful
test of its up trendline. It is now testing the
hourly resistance at 101.05 (25/09/2012 high).
Short-term resistance is at 102.10 (21/09/2012
low). Hourly support is at 100.41.
" EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend.
However, the medium-term oscillators favour a
test of this downtrend.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Long 3 at 99.81, Objs: 102.12/103.86/107.5, Stop: 97.5 (Entered: 2012-10-01)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 10 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
EUR / GBP
Pushing higher.
" EUR/GBP continues to move higher. It is now
challenging its resistance at 0.8017 (19/09/2012
low, see also 50% retracement of the previous
decline). The next resistance is at 0.8059
(19/09/2012 high, see also down trendline).
Hourly support is at 0.7979 (02/10/2012 low).
" We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend
move within a long-term downtrend. We need to
see a break of the strong resistance area
between 0.8095 (29/06/2012 high) and 0.8169
(see also down trendline) to negate this view.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 11 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
EUR / CHF
Pausing.
" EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5
September, which increases the likelihood of
further medium-term strength.
" The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF,
which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
" In the long-term, we remain of the view that if
EUR/USD can gather some downside
momentum then it may be a step too far for the
SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 12 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
GOLD
Strong resistance area suggests limited
short-term upside potential.
" Gold is still supportedby its up trendline,
which was confirmed by the recent marginal new
high. Hourly support is at 1764.
" The "shooting star" on 21 September and the
strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803
suggest limited short-term upside potential.
" Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong
support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the
aforementioned resistances and the current
overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Short 3 at 1775, Objs: 1733/1690/1657, Stop: 1817 (Entered: 2012-09-27)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 13 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
SILVER
Monitor short-term horizontal range.
" Silver is moving sideways since 14 September.
Monitor the resistance at 35.17 (21/09/2012 high)
and the support at 33.37 (26/09/2012 low).
Hourly support is at 34.18 (01/10/2012 low).
" Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above
its key support. The break of the long-term down
trendline favours a lengthy sideways move.
Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 14 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
03 October 2012
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or Limitation of liability
recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
MIG Bank disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG Bank
for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change
without notice. MIG Bank makes no representations (either expressed or
Material Interests
implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or
up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or
MIG Bank and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees
other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely
may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before
making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG Bank believes to be reliable but
Copyright
they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is
All material produced is copyright to MIG Bank and may not be copied, e-
made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG Bank makes no
mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG Bank.
such claim.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit
will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 15 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com