RESEARCH TEAM
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Senior Market Strategist
DAILY
TECHNICAL
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT
Senior Analyst
REPORT
28 September 2012
Cedric Poretti
Analyst
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
STRATEGY / ENTRY OBJECTIVE /
DIRECTION TIMEFRAME STOP ENTERED
POSITION LEVELS COMMENTS
L-TERM
EUR / USD Await fresh signal.
L-TERM Our strategy has been stopped.
GBP / USD
L-TERM Long 3 78.18 79.47/80.62/83.00 76.89 20/09/2012
USD / JPY
L-TERM
USD / CHF Await fresh signal.
M-TERM
USD / CAD Await fresh signal.
AUD / USD L-TERM Short 3 1.0430 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820 1.0630 11/09/2012
M-TERM
GBP / JPY Await fresh signal.
L-TERM Buy limit 3 99.81 102.12/103.86/107.5 97.5
EUR / JPY
EUR / GBP L-TERM Await fresh signal.
L-TERM Long 3 1.2121 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474 1.1998 18/09/2012
EUR / CHF
GOLD L-TERM Short 3 1775 1733/1690/1657 1817 27/09/2012
SILVER L-TERM Await fresh signal.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade.
When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 2 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
EUR / USD
Bouncing on the 200 day moving
average.
" EUR/USD bounced on its 200 day moving
average yesterday. Monitor the hourly resistance
at 1.2971 (25/09/2012).
" The lack of a base formation or sell-off
suggests that the recent Euro strength is a
rebound within an underlying downtrend. The
current weakness near the 38.2% retracement of
the decline from May 2011 to July 2012 suggests
limited short-term upside potential and the start
of a new down phase.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 3 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
GBP / USD
Rising back towards strong resistance
area.
" GBP/USD rose sharply yesterday. However,
given the short-term overbought readings and
the strong resistance at 1.6302, we expect a
longer corrective phase.
" GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term
horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302
and by the long-term down trendline (linking the
August 2009 top with the April 2011 top) suggest
limited short-term upside potential.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Our strategy has been stopped.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 4 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
USD / JPY
Still sliding.
" USD/JPY continues to decline. It is now
approaching its recent low at 77.13. Hourly
resistance is at 77.94 (25/09/2012 high).
" USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming
process and is oversold in the medium-term time
frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of
strength in the short-term. Medium-term
resistance is at 80.62.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 5 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
USD / CHF
Resistance at 0.9420 has held thus far.
" USD/CHF has failed to break its resistance at
0.9420 (13/09/2012 high, see also up trendline).
Monitor the hourly support at 0.9329 (25/09/2012
low). Other support can be found at 0.9239.
" The break of the support at 0.9423 opens the
way for a medium-term move towards the next
horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens
the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8%
retracement of the decline from June 2010 to
August 2011) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high).
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 6 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
USD / CAD
Bearish engulfing pattern favours short-
term weakness.
" USD/CAD completed a bearish engulfing
pattern yesterday suggesting short-term
exhaustion of the buying pressure. Short-term
support is at 0.9726 (19/09/2012 low).
" The succession of lower highs since March
2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Indeed,
the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way
for a medium-term move towards the strong
support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at
0.9949 is needed to invalidate this bias.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 7 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
AUD / USD
Bounce is approaching the resistance at
1.0519.
" AUD/USD has successfully tested its short-term
support at 1.0323 (11/09/2012 low). However, we
still favour a move towards the strong support at
1.0177. Short-term resistance is at 1.0519
(21/09/2012 high).
" The proximity of the down trendline, coupled
with medium-term oscillators near overbought
levels, favour a significant phase of weakness.
However, should a break to the upside out of the
symmetrical triangle occur, it would force us to
review our strategy.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Short 3 at 1.0430, Objs: 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0630 (Entered: 2012-09-11)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 8 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
GBP / JPY
Testing short-term up trendline.
" GBP/JPY has broken its support at 126.20
(07/09/2012 high) and is now testing its short-
term up trendline. Hourly resistance is at 126.71
(25/09/2012 high).
" GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term
declining channel since April 2010. The sharp
reversal near the high of its rising channel
favours a medium-term move towards the strong
support at 123.70.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 9 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
EUR / JPY
Support area at 99.52 has held thus far.
" EUR/JPY tested successfully its support at
99.52 (see also up trendline) yesterday. A short-
term bounce is likely. Hourly resistance is at
101.05 (25/09/2012 high). Other support is at
97.89 (28/08/2012 low).
" EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend.
However, the medium-term oscillators favour a
test of this downtrend.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Buy limit 3 at 99.81, Objs: 102.12/103.86/107.5, Stop: 97.5
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 10 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
EUR / GBP
Pickup in buying pressure near support
area.
" EUR/GBP has posted three straight intraday
bullish reversals (from 25 to 27 September)
indicating pickup in demand. The resistance for
a bounce is likely given by 0.8017 (19/09/2012
low).
" We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend
move within a long-term downtrend. The recent
signs of weakness near the strong resistance
area between 0.8095 (29/06/2012 high) and
0.8169 (see also down trendline) favour a new
medium-term phase of weakness.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 11 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
EUR / CHF
Pausing.
" EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5
September, which increases the likelihood of
further medium-term strength.
" The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF,
which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
" In the long-term, we remain of the view that if
EUR/USD can gather some downside
momentum then it may be a step too far for the
SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 12 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
GOLD
Rising back towards strong resistance
area.
" Gold rose sharply yesterday invalidating the
hourly succession of lower highs and lower lows.
" The "shooting star" on 21 September and the
strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803
suggest limited short-term upside potential.
" Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong
support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the
aforementioned resistances and the current
overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Short 3 at 1775, Objs: 1733/1690/1657, Stop: 1817 (Entered: 2012-09-27)
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 13 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
SILVER
Rising back to its recent highs.
" Silver rose sharply yesterday. Prices are now
close to the resistance implied by its previous
highs near 35.17.
" Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above
its key support. The break of the long-term down
trendline favours a lengthy sideways move.
Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 14 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
28 September 2012
DISCLAIMER
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or Limitation of liability
recommendation, or advice, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
MIG Bank disclaims, without limitation, all liability for any loss or damage of any
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
kind, including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG Bank
for personal use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change
without notice. MIG Bank makes no representations (either expressed or
Material Interests
implied) that the information and opinions expressed are accurate, complete or
up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or
MIG Bank and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees
other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made solely
may have or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before
making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG Bank believes to be reliable but
Copyright
they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is
All material produced is copyright to MIG Bank and may not be copied, e-
made to ensure that the content is accurate and complete, MIG Bank makes no
mailed, faxed or distributed without the express permission of MIG Bank.
such claim.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit
will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 15 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com