RESEARCH TEAM
Bijoy Kar, CFA
Senior Market Strategist
DAILY
TECHNICAL
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT
Senior Analyst
REPORT
02 October 2012
Cedric Poretti
Analyst
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com Please read the disclaimer and the disclosures which can be found at the end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.
STRATEGY / ENTRY OBJECTIVE /
DIRECTION TIMEFRAME STOP ENTERED
POSITION LEVELS COMMENTS
S-TERM
EUR / USD Await fresh signal.
S-TERM
GBP / USD Await fresh signal.
S-TERM Long 3 78.18 79.47/80.62/83.00 76.89 20/09/2012
USD / JPY
S-TERM
USD / CHF Await fresh signal.
S-TERM
USD / CAD Await fresh signal.
AUD / USD S-TERM Short 3 1.0430 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820 1.0630 11/09/2012
S-TERM
GBP / JPY Await fresh signal.
S-TERM Long 3 99.81 102.12/103.86/107.5 97.5 01/10/2012
EUR / JPY
EUR / GBP S-TERM Await fresh signal.
S-TERM Long 3 1.2121 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474 1.1998 18/09/2012
EUR / CHF
GOLD S-TERM Short 3 1775 1733/1690/1657 1817 27/09/2012
SILVER S-TERM Await fresh signal.
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade.
When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
EUR / USD
Testing the resistance implied by its
short-term down trendline.
" EUR/USD bounced on its up trendline
yesterday. Monitor the test of the short-term
declining channel. Horizontal resistance at
1.2971 (25/09/2012 high). Key horizontal support
at 1.2755 (11/09/2012 low).
" Despite the recent sharp rise from 1.2043, the
long-term trend is still negative as long as the
down trendline linking the May 2011 high with
the August 2011 high (currently near 1.3284)
holds.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
GBP / USD
Consolidating between 1.6109 and
1.6175.
" GBP/USD is getting closer to its up trendline.
However, the recent sharp decline (28
September) and the current weak bounce favour
a short-term bearish bias. Monitor the hourly
resistance at 1.6175.
" GBP/USD is likely moving in a long-term
horizontal range. The resistances given by 1.6302
(30/04/2012 high) and by the long-term down
trendline (linking the August 2009 top with the
April 2011 top) suggest limited short-term
upside potential.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
USD / JPY
Bouncing.
" USD/JPY finally saw some pickup in demand
close to the recent low at 77.13. It is now testing
the 38.2% retracement of its recent decline.
Short-term resistance is at 78.46 (20/09/2012
high). Hourly support is at 77.79.
" USD/JPY is likely in a long-term bottoming
process and is oversold in the medium-term time
frame. We therefore expect to see a phase of
strength in the short-term. Medium-term
resistance is at 80.62.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Long 3 at 78.18, Objs: 79.47/80.62/83.00, Stop: 76.89 (Entered: 2012-09-20)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
USD / CHF
The resistance area near 0.9420 has held
thus far.
" USD/CHF failed to break its resistance area
near 0.9420 (13/09/2012 high, see also down
trendline) yesterday. We remain cautious as long
as this resistance area holds. Hourly support is at
0.9329 (25/09/2012 low).
" The break of the support at 0.9423 opens the
way for a medium-term move towards the next
horizontal support at 0.9043. It also strengthens
the resistance area between 0.9951 (61.8%
retracement of the decline from June 2010 to
August 2011) and 1.0067 (01/12/2010 high).
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
USD / CAD
Monitor the hourly range between
0.9782 and 0.9860.
" USD/CAD completed a bearish engulfing
pattern on 27 September. As long as the implied
resistance at 0.9860 (26/09/2012 high) holds,
further short-term weakness is favoured. Hourly
support is at 0.9782 (28/09/2012 low).
" The succession of lower highs since March
2009 favours an underlying bearish bias. Indeed,
the break of the support at 0.9725 opens the way
for a medium-term move towards the strong
support at 0.9407. A break of the resistance at
0.9949 is needed to negate this bias.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
AUD / USD
Moving below the support at 1.0323.
" AUD/USD is moving below its short-term
support at 1.0323 (11/09/2012 low). A test of the
strong support at 1.0177 is likely. Hourly
resistance is at 1.0404.
" The proximity of the down trendline, coupled
with medium-term oscillators near overbought
levels, favours a phase of weakness. However,
should a break to the upside out of the
symmetrical triangle occur, it would force us to
review our strategy.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Short 3 at 1.0430, Objs: 1.0230/0.9980/0.9820, Stop: 1.0630 (Entered: 2012-09-11)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
GBP / JPY
Short-term up trendline breached.
" GBP/JPY has broken its support at 126.20
(07/09/2012 high) and has breached its short-
term up trendline. Monitor the short-term range
between 125.35 (26/09/2012 low) and 126.71
(25/09/2012 high).
" GBP/JPY is moving within a long-term
declining channel since April 2010. The sharp
reversal near the high of its rising channel
favours a medium-term move towards the strong
support at 123.70.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
EUR / JPY
Bouncing on support area near 99.52.
" EUR/JPY saw some strength yesterday close to
the support at 99.52. Monitor the hourly
resistance is at 101.05 (25/09/2012 high). Short-
term resistance is at 102.10 (21/09/2012 low).
" EUR/JPY is moving in a long-term downtrend.
However, the medium-term oscillators favour a
test of this downtrend.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Long 3 at 99.81, Objs: 102.12/103.86/107.5, Stop: 97.5 (Entered: 2012-10-01)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
EUR / GBP
Bouncing.
" EUR/GBP rose sharply yesterday. Monitor the
resistance at 0.8017 (19/09/2012 low, see also
50% retracement of the previous decline). Short-
term support is at 0.7924.
" We see the rise from 0.7755 as a countertrend
move within a long-term downtrend. The recent
signs of weakness near the strong resistance
area between 0.8095 (29/06/2012 high) and
0.8169 (see also down trendline) favour a new
medium-term phase of weakness.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
EUR / CHF
Pausing.
" EUR/CHF has shown signs of strength since 5
September, which increases the likelihood of
further medium-term strength.
" The SNB has put a floor at 1.2000 on EUR/CHF,
which is expected to hold in the medium-term.
" In the long-term, we remain of the view that if
EUR/USD can gather some downside
momentum then it may be a step too far for the
SNB to hold back the whole FX market.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Long 3 at 1.2121, Objs: 1.2243/1.2380/1.2474, Stop: 1.1998 (Entered: 2012-09-18)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
GOLD
Strong resistance area suggests limited
short-term upside potential.
" Gold is still supportedby its up trendline,
which was confirmed by yesterday's marginal
new high. Hourly support is at 1764.
" The "shooting star" on 21 September and the
strong resistance area between 1791 and 1803
suggest limited short-term upside potential.
" Gold is in a secular uptrend with strong
support at 1523. Still, given the proximity of the
aforementioned resistances and the current
overextended rise, a phase of weakness is likely.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Short 3 at 1775, Objs: 1733/1690/1657, Stop: 1817 (Entered: 2012-09-27)
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
SILVER
Resistance area tested again.
" Silver tested the resistance area impliedby its
previous highs near 35.17 yesterday, but failed to
break it. Hourly support is at 34.18 (01/10/2012
low).
" Silver, like Gold, has been able to hold above
its key support. The break of the long-term down
trendline favours a lengthy sideways move.
Long-term horizontal resistance at 37.48.
Luc Luyet, CIIA, CMT | Senior Analyst
e-mail: [e-mail] | phone: [phone]
Await fresh signal.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
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DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT
02 October 2012
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Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit
will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
MIG BANK 4, Avenue d'Ouchy CH-1006 Lausanne Switzerland
Page 15 | 15
Tel [phone] Fax [phone] [e-mail] www.migbank.com