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Storm Surge

Most deaths in tropical cycloncs arc causcd by storm surge. This is a rise in sea level, sometimes seven meters or morę, causcd by the storni pushing against the ocean's ze- surface. Storm surge was to blamc for the flooding of New Orleans in 2005. The storm surge of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 in Myanmar pushed seawater nearly four meters dccp somc 40 kiłometers inland, resulting in many deaths.

Difficult to Predict

The goal is to know when and where the next tropical cyclonc will form, “And we 30 cant really do that yct,’^ł says David Nolan, a weather researcher from the University of Miami. The direction and strength of tropical cycloncs arc also difficult to predict, evcn with Computer assistance. Three-day forecasts are still ofFby an averagc of 280 kiłometers. Forecasters do know that storms are often energized where ocean water is dccp and warm, that high waves tend to reduce their force, and that when tropical 35 cycloncs move over land, they begin to die.

Long-tcrm forecasts are poor; smali differenccs in tłic combi na tion of weather factors lead to very difTerent storms. Morę accurate fore ca Sting could help peoplc dccidc to evacuate¹ when a storm is on the way. “Peoplc often return after an evacuation to find nothing really happened,^-” says storm researcher Sharan Majumdar. “The solution is to •ir: improvc forccasting through better science. That’s the only way to get people to trust the warnings.”

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lf pccplo evacuate a płaca. Iliey niowł oi.l cif il Ihcti.'-:a ił ng? cecoms dangSfCU3.

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