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■U¹ Public policy responses to the virus - what we know and what we know we don’t know

What we already know

Lockdown does successfully reduce the Rt to lower than 1.0	Ali countries under lockdown have seen decreases in both the number of cases and fatalities. While estimates of its effectiveness vary, studies suggest that lockdown reduces Rt by 60-80%.	Further detail page 12
Secondary outbreaks remain a real risk and require vigilance	Both Japan and Singapore have experienced secondary outbreaks. which have prompted morę stringent lockdown measures to be imposed. illustrating the risks the EU5 nations face when relaxing lockdowns.	Further detail page 13
The virus is likely to be with us for some time yet	Without herd immunity or a vaccine. and with the time required to reduce infections to zero and the risk of secondary outbreaks. the virus is likely to remain with us for some time. As a result, policy makers are moving their attention to finding a combination of restrictions and supplementary measures that keep the virus controlled. but enable greater economic activity.

Further detail page 14	EU5 countries are all considering how to relax restrictions to increase economic activity while keeping the virus under control. Early experiences in Spain and Germany indicate that this is a delicate operation.	The optimal combination of less stringent restrictions and supplementary measures to keep Rt below 1.0, is emerging but not yet known
	The EU5 have not seen high numbers of protests or civil unrest in response to the current restrictions. unlike in the U.S. However. as the economic and social damage caused by lockdown grows, the pressure on politicians to relax measures will increase.	It is not elear how long public acceptance of severe restrictions will last given the economic and social damage it causes

What we don’t know yet

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