2510109673

TI<T>/FC/l08 Part II by 12/7 during the first half of 1955» while investment increased b; 21,., thus raising the ratę of investment (e:ccluding stoclcs) to nearly 22)o of the national product (as against 2C,j in the first half of 195*0 &nd to 27/j including stocks. In some casco this tension could be reduced by increasing ińiports, but it still existed in the building sector and in sonę investment goods Industries,

Moreover, some pressure was felt on the labour market#

In Geptember 1955 unemployment feLl to ^95>000 persons, or about 2.7/' of the active population, and a scarcity, in parti-cular of skilled labour, had already emergcd in some industries.

Despite recent wagę increases, there had been no appre-ciable rise in prices. The wagę inereases, together with fuller employment, had resulted in recent months in a rapid inerease in the total volume of wages, which In the third ąuarter was 16>j higher than in the samo period of 195*U It seemed however that the inerease in w ag es had so far not exceeded the rise in productivity# Certain problems might hov;ever arise if further ir.creases should result frora the wagę negotiations in tho metallurgical industries, which employed about 1*1 million persons claiming a 12jv inerease# Mmi lar claims might then appear in other sectors, e»g# coal Mining, which might lead to an inerease in coal prices and conceąuently to a morę generał upward tendency of prices#

If, however, wages increased morę rapi&ly than productivity, the result would be a further inerease in demand, in part i cular for consumcr goods, which might be absorbed to some extent b. using the fraction of hitlierto unused capaoJty in the consumer goods industry# Nevertheless, if thbse industries were obliged to inerease capacity by new investinent, this might lead to some additional strain in this aeetor and in the cconomy as a whole#

For these reasons spccial attention raust be given to the inerease in consumer demand and the trend of investment. Tconomic policy in the next few months should airn at ensuring a high ratę of expansion while reducing the ratę of investment and Jceeping wages within the limits of rising productivity.

Certain factors, which appeared some months ago, did however seem to be slowing down expanrion# The decision taken in August by the Ban!: Deutscher Lilnder to raise the discount rato from 5 to 5 1/2; and to inerease tł o minimum reserve requi.rements for commercial bankę, ar. woli as its refusal to rediscount in futurę bills covering loans to the building jndustry, should slow down the expansion of the volume of money and credit# In addition, the gradual decline in balance of payments surpluses had the effect of reducing liąuidities, which had already becn reduced appreciably by