plynnosc sektora bankowego raport2006

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3

Tabela 1. Sytuacja płynno ciowa sektora bankowego w latach 2001 – 2006

Bony pieni ne

Lokaty MF w NBP

Udział b.p. w ł cznej

absorbcji (w %)

Ł cznie bony pien. i lokaty

MF

2006

19 758

5 065

80

24 823

2005

16 699

5 008

77

21 707

2004

5 275

12 192

30

17 467

2003

6 251

6 067

51

12 318

2002

10 565

7 275

59

17 840

2001

14 701

3 660

80

18 361

redniorocznie (w mln zł)

Okres

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4

Tabela 2. Wykorzystanie operacji depozytowo-kredytowych oraz kształtowanie si stawek

rynkowych w latach 2001 – 2006

O/N

SW

2W

1M

POLONIA

2006

150

50

-100

4,06

10

6

16

35

2005

162

29

-133

5,34

21

6

29

28

2004

310

22

-288

5,79

40

10

24

2003

167

34

-133

5,67

28

7

25

2002

80

170

89

8,82

90

32

43

2001

715

234

-481

16,13

142

42

151

Odchylenie stóp od st. ref. w pkt. baz.

( redniorocznie)

Okres

rednia

stopa

referencyjna

(w %)

rednie

odchylenie

rach. bie .

banków od

rez.

wymag.(w

mln zł)

Depozyt

na koniec

dnia

Kredyt

lombardo

wy

Saldo

(kredyt -

depozyt)

Operacje depozytowo-kredytowe

redniorocznie (w mln zł)

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I.1 Sytuacja płynno ciowa w 2006 r.................................................................................... 7
I.2 Oddziaływanie czynników autonomicznych na płynno sektora bankowego w 2006 r.

……………………………………………………………………………………….....9

I.2.1 Skup i sprzeda walut przez NBP ............................................................................ 9

I.2.2 Depozyty sektora publicznego utrzymywane w banku centralnym....................... 11

I.2.3 Pieni dz gotówkowy w obiegu .............................................................................. 14

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################################################# -N

II.1 Instrumenty polityki pieni nej w 2006 r. ................................................................... 18

II.1.1 Stopy procentowe................................................................................................... 18

II.1.2 Operacje otwartego rynku ...................................................................................... 19

II.1.3 Rezerwa obowi zkowa........................................................................................... 20

II.1.4 Operacje depozytowo-kredytowe........................................................................... 22

II.1.5 Inne elementy polityki pieni nej NBP ................................................................. 22

II.2 Sytuacja na mi dzybankowym rynku pieni nym....................................................... 24

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Wykres 1. Nadpłynno sektora bankowego w latach 2001 - 2006

0

4 000

8 000

12 000

16 000

20 000

24 000

28 000

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bony pieni ne NBP

lokaty złotowe MF w NBP

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Wykres 2. Zmiany poziomu waha najkrótszych stóp procentowych

na rynku mi dzybankowym na tle zmian prowadzonych operacji otwartego

rynku w latach 2001- 2006

2,00%

7,00%

12,00%

17,00%

22,00%

27,00%

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6

WIBOR O/N

WIBOR SW

WIBOR 2W

WIBOR 1M

Stopa referencyjna NBP

Stopa lombardowa NBP

Stopa depozytowa NBP

Wprowadzenie regularnych operacji podstawowych

Skrócenie operacji podstawowych z 28 do 14 dni

Skrócenie operacji podstawowych z 14 do 7 dni

ródło: NBP

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Wykres 12. Wahania stawek WIBOR i stawki POLONIA na tle stóp procentowych NBP w 2006 r.

2,0%

2,5%

3,0%

3,5%

4,0%

4,5%

5,0%

5,5%

6,0%

6,5%

1

st

y

16

s

ty

31

s

ty

15

lu

t

2

m

ar

17

m

ar

1

kw

i

16

k

w

i

1

m

aj

16

m

aj

31

m

aj

15

c

ze

30

c

ze

15

li

p

30

li

p

14

s

ie

29

s

ie

13

w

rz

28

w

rz

13

p

a

28

p

a

12

li

s

27

li

s

12

g

ru

27

g

ru

POLONIA

WIBOR O/N

WIBOR SW

Stopa referencyjna

Stopa lombardowa

Stopa depozytowa

%& '() 7

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Wykres 13. Wykorzystanie operacji depozytowo-kredytowych oferowanych przez

NBP a odchylenie stawek WIBOR od stopy referencyjnej NBP w 2006 r.

-1,5

-1,3

-1,0

-0,8

-0,5

-0,3

0,0

0,3

0,5

0,8

1,0

1,3

1,5

s

ty

0

6

lu

t 0

6

m

ar

0

6

k

w

i 0

6

m

aj

0

6

c

ze

0

6

li

p

06

s

ie

0

6

w

rz

0

6

p

a

0

6

li

s

06

g

ru

0

6

pk

t p

ro

c.

-6 000

-5 000

-4 000

-3 000

-2 000

-1 000

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

m

ln

z

ł

Depozyt na koniec dnia (prawa o )

Kredyt lombardowy (prawa o )

Odchylenie WIBOR O/N

Pocz tek okresu rezerwowego

Odchylenie WIBOR SW

Warto ci ujemne na prawej osi oznaczaj ograniczenie płynno ci sektora bankowego (zło enie depozytu w

NBP), natomiast warto ci dodatnie – zasilenie w płynno (kredyt lombardowy oferowany przez NBP).

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Wykres 14. Sytuacja płynno ciowa oraz wykorzystywanie operacji depozytowo-

kredytowych banku centralnego w listopadzie i grudniu 2006 r.

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

30

li

s

06

02

g

ru

0

6

04

g

ru

0

6

06

g

ru

0

6

08

g

ru

0

6

10

g

ru

0

6

12

g

ru

0

6

14

g

ru

0

6

16

g

ru

0

6

18

g

ru

0

6

20

g

ru

0

6

22

g

ru

0

6

24

g

ru

0

6

26

g

ru

0

6

28

g

ru

0

6

30

g

ru

0

6

pk

t p

ro

c.

-3 500

-2 500

-1 500

-500

500

1 500

2 500

3 500

m

ln

z

ł

Depozyt na koniec dnia (prawa o )

Kredyt lombardowy (prawa o )

Odchylenie WIBOR O/N

Odchylenie WIBOR SW

Warto ci ujemne na prawej osi oznaczaj ograniczenie płynno ci sektora bankowego (zło enie

depozytu w NBP), natomiast warto ci dodatnie – zasilenie w płynno (kredyt lombardowy oferowany

przez NBP).

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27

redni poziom

bonów

pieni nych NBP

redni poziom

depozytów

bud etowych w

NBP

redni poziom

depozytu na

koniec dnia

redni poziom

kredytu

lombardowego

Suma

2006

1

2

3

4

1+2+3+4

I

19 534

11 031

98

0

30 663

II

18 443

12 300

140

0

30 883

III

21 281

8 632

82

0

29 995

IV

20 038

7 360

86

-146

27 338

V

20 024

7 652

85

-10

27 751

VI

21 523

5 638

156

0

27 317

VII

19 558

7 651

111

0

27 320

VIII

20 255

7 264

153

0

27 672

IX

20 428

8 127

221

0

28 776

X

19 834

10 509

32

-19

30 356

XI

18 233

10 909

209

0

29 351

XII

17 924

8 714

398

-386

26 650

Udział redniego

poziomu bonów

pieni nych NBP

w absorpcji

płynno ci

Udział redniego

poziomu

depozytów

bud etowych w

NBP w absorpcji

płynno ci

Udział redniego

poziomu

depozytu na

koniec dnia w

absorpcji

płynno ci

Udział redniego

poziomu kredytu

lombardowego w

generowaniu

płynno ci

Suma

2006

I

63,71%

35,97%

0,32%

0,00%

100,00%

II

59,72%

39,83%

0,45%

0,00%

100,00%

III

70,95%

28,78%

0,27%

0,00%

100,00%

IV

73,30%

26,92%

0,31%

-0,53%

100,00%

V

72,16%

27,57%

0,31%

-0,04%

100,00%

VI

78,79%

20,64%

0,57%

0,00%

100,00%

VII

71,59%

28,01%

0,41%

0,00%

100,00%

VIII

73,20%

26,25%

0,55%

0,00%

100,00%

IX

70,99%

28,24%

0,77%

0,00%

100,00%

X

65,34%

34,62%

0,11%

-0,06%

100,00%

XI

62,12%

37,17%

0,71%

0,00%

100,00%

XII

67,26%

32,70%

1,49%

-1,45%

100,00%

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Data

przetargu

Data

zapłaty

Nominalna

warto oferty

sprzeda y (w

mln zł)

Nominalna

warto oferty

zakupu (w

mln zł)

Nominalna

warto ofert

przyj tych

(w mln zł)

rednia

przyj ta

cena

(za 10000

zł)

Warto w

cenie

sprzeda y (w

mln zł)

redni zysk

z bonów w

skali roku

(365/360)

1

06-01-06

06-01-06

21 000

26 698

21 000

9991,25

20 982

4,50%

2

06-01-13

06-01-13

21 000

29 626

21 000

9991,25

20 982

4,50%

3

06-01-20

06-01-20

17 500

36 343

17 500

9991,25

17 485

4,50%

4

06-01-27

06-01-27

14 500

28 067

14 500

9991,25

14 487

4,50%

5

06-02-03

06-02-03

16 200

27 961

16 200

9991,74

16 187

4,25%

6

06-02-10

06-02-10

17 300

31 008

17 300

9991,74

17 286

4,25%

7

06-02-17

06-02-17

21 200

32 870

21 200

9991,74

21 182

4,25%

8

06-02-24

06-02-24

22 500

31 582

22 500

9991,74

22 481

4,25%

9

06-03-03

06-03-03

21 400

33 753

21 400

9992,22

21 383

4,00%

10

06-03-10

06-03-10

21 000

33 709

21 000

9992,22

20 984

4,00%

11

06-03-17

06-03-17

21 200

30 841

21 200

9992,22

21 184

4,00%

12

06-03-24

06-03-24

21 000

26 017

21 000

9992,22

20 984

4,00%

13

06-03-31

06-03-31

21 200

27 628

21 200

9992,22

21 184

4,00%

14

06-04-07

06-04-07

19 000

23 863

19 000

9992,22

18 985

4,00%

15

06-04-14

06-04-14

22 000

28 588

22 000

9992,22

21 983

4,00%

16

06-04-21

06-04-21

19 000

29 517

19 000

9992,22

18 985

4,00%

17

06-04-28

06-04-28

18 200

22 635

18 200

9992,22

18 186

4,00%

18

06-05-05

06-05-05

17 500

31 223

17 500

9992,22

17 486

4,00%

19

06-05-12

06-05-12

22 000

31 328

22 000

9992,22

21 983

4,00%

20

06-05-19

06-05-19

20 300

32 625

20 300

9992,22

20 284

4,00%

21

06-05-26

06-05-26

21 500

35 502

21 500

9992,22

21 483

4,00%

22

06-06-02

06-06-02

22 600

33 451

22 600

9992,22

22 582

4,00%

23

06-06-09

06-06-09

24 000

37 335

24 000

9992,22

23 981

4,00%

24

06-06-16

06-06-16

21 500

37 646

21 500

9992,22

21 483

4,00%

25

06-06-23

06-06-23

18 000

32 843

18 000

9992,22

17 986

4,00%

26

06-06-30

06-06-30

19 000

34 304

19 000

9992,22

18 985

4,00%

27

06-07-07

06-07-07

20 500

41 581

20 500

9992,22

20 484

4,00%

28

06-07-14

06-07-14

19 700

46 344

19 700

9992,22

19 685

4,00%

29

06-07-21

06-07-21

18 200

48 220

18 200

9992,22

18 186

4,00%

30

06-07-28

06-07-28

21 500

44 650

21 500

9992,22

21 483

4,00%

31

06-08-04

06-08-04

19 500

40 021

19 500

9992,22

19 485

4,00%

32

06-08-11

06-08-11

21 600

42 424

21 600

9992,22

21 583

4,00%

33

06-08-18

06-08-18

19 000

38 031

19 000

9992,22

18 985

4,00%

34

06-08-25

06-08-25

20 200

41 907

20 200

9992,22

20 184

4,00%

35

06-09-01

06-09-01

20 600

45 272

20 600

9992,22

20 584

4,00%

36

06-09-08

06-09-08

18 700

44 602

18 700

9992,22

18 685

4,00%

37

06-09-15

06-09-15

19 200

49 243

19 200

9992,22

19 185

4,00%

38

06-09-22

06-09-22

21 500

48 485

21 500

9992,22

21 483

4,00%

39

06-09-29

06-09-29

24 500

62 390

24 500

9992,22

24 481

4,00%

40

06-10-06

06-10-06

18 500

47 175

18 500

9992,22

18 486

4,00%

41

06-10-13

06-10-13

17 900

58 890

17 900

9992,22

17 886

4,00%

42

06-10-20

06-10-20

19 600

67 019

19 600

9992,22

19 585

4,00%

43

06-10-27

06-10-27

21 300

61 376

21 300

9992,22

21 283

4,00%

44

06-11-03

06-11-03

16 700

67 621

16 700

9992,22

16 687

4,00%

45

06-11-10

06-11-10

17 800

79 937

17 800

9992,22

17 786

4,00%

46

06-11-17

06-11-17

17 800

91 653

17 800

9992,22

17 786

4,00%

47

06-11-24

06-11-24

19 500

108 486

19 500

9992,22

19 485

4,00%

48

06-12-01

06-12-01

20 800

137 902

20 800

9992,22

20 784

4,00%

49

06-12-08

06-12-08

17 100

140 743

17 100

9992,22

17 087

4,00%

50

06-12-15

06-12-15

17 000

177 981

17 000

9992,22

16 987

4,00%

51

06-12-22

06-12-22

16 300

234 984

16 300

9992,22

16 287

4,00%

52

06-12-29

06-12-29

18 400

26 545

18 400

9992,22

18 386

4,00%

1 025 000

2 700 435

1 025 000

1 024 192

Razem 2006:

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30

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Wyszczególnienie

XII 2005

I 2006

II 2006

III 2006

IV 2006

V 2006

VI 2006

VII 2006

VIII 2006

IX 2006

X 2006

XI 2006

XII 2006

( w mln PLN )

BUD ET PA STWA:

dochody

183 033,11

18 588,60

33 328,37

48 672,99

65 374,91

79 581,31

93 663,29

111 431,06

130 344,86

146 292,97

164 797,68

182 667,32

201 084,99

wydatki

208 481,67

18 994,69

38 924,29

56 251,35

73 608,25

92 796,91

110 159,21

125 619,85

142 896,43

158 937,22

179 489,05

199 026,15

222 956,93

deficyt(-)/nadwy .(+)

-25 448,56

-406,09

-5 595,92

-7 578,37

-8 233,35

-13 215,61

-16 495,92

-14 188,79

-12 551,56

-12 644,25

-14 691,37

-16 358,83

-21 871,94

rodki bud etu pa stwa

3 757,38

2 216,17

1 735,40

2 807,74

1 920,00

1 889,07

1 828,32

1 714,25

1 882,55

1 971,54

2 776,95

2 280,50

5 614,87

rachunek walutowy MF

3 392,37

2 789,82

13 154,11

9 881,64

9 628,24

9 306,28

8 835,98

8 083,25

7 996,44

4 749,99

385,43

1 929,92

1 244,04

lokaty złotowe MF

0,00

14 999,91

5 349,91

5 999,91

5 999,91

4 700,41

5 789,41

5 829,41

4 999,41

4 999,41

4 999,41

4 669,41

0,00

PIENI DZ GOT. W OBIEGU

62 596,88

60 218,00

61 122,77

63 437,90

66 524,41

66 390,99

69 885,22

70 466,80

70 478,00

71 518,55

72 378,45

71 430,22

75 377,24

RACHUNEK BIE

CY

7 880,96

11 904,91

12 698,14

11 187,61

12 054,00

12 520,23

12 050,36

11 133,23

14 120,92

9 080,40

10 209,05

16 164,70

11 701,98

odchylenie stanu r-ku
od rezerwy wymaganej

327,12

-210,77

571,91

-1 081,45

181,41

12,57

-505,32

-1 679,40

1 162,67

302,45

-3 102,21

2 247,82

224,11

KREDYT REFINANSOWY

3 055,68

2 604,89

2 616,82

2 498,55

3 674,87

2 544,48

2 442,77

2 417,67

2 429,92

2 348,62

2 324,05

2 335,46

5 440,17

lombardowy

464,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

1 164,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

3 186,24

redyskontowy

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

KREDYT TECHNICZNY

15 267,90

9 123,45

6 766,92

9 308,17

0,00

10 558,96

13 865,79

12 434,53

13 726,46

17 129,45

14 808,82

15 273,35

16 289,62

DEPOZYT NA KONIEC DNIA

2 581,81

2,60

0,00

0,00

683,31

0,00

2,10

2,20

3,58

2 075,88

10,81

5,82

2 647,74

OPER.OTWART.RYNKU*/

23 000,00

14 500,00

22 500,00

21 200,00

18 200,00

21 500,00

19 000,00

21 500,00

20 200,00

24 500,00

21 300,00

19 500,00

18 400,00

repo

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

bony pien.<7 dni

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

bony pieni ne 7 -dn.

23 000,00

14 500,00

22 500,00

21 200,00

18 200,00

21 500,00

19 000,00

21 500,00

20 200,00

24 500,00

21 300,00

19 500,00

18 400,00

POLONIA**/

3,95%

4,32%

4,15%

4,06%

4,20%

4,02%

4,02%

4,08%

4,02%

3,40%

4,04%

4,00%

5,11%

WIBOR

O/N

3,61%

4,46%

4,29%

4,14%

4,16%

4,11%

4,10%

4,10%

4,09%

3,47%

4,10%

4,10%

4,18%

T/N

4,60%

4,44%

4,30%

4,14%

4,14%

4,12%

4,10%

4,10%

4,10%

4,10%

4,11%

4,10%

4,11%

SW

4,60%

4,40%

4,27%

4,15%

4,12%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

2W

4,60%

4,40%

4,25%

4,15%

4,12%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

4,11%

1M

4,60%

4,40%

4,22%

4,15%

4,12%

4,11%

4,12%

4,12%

4,12%

4,13%

4,13%

4,13%

4,12%

3M

4,60%

4,40%

4,16%

4,17%

4,13%

4,15%

4,21%

4,18%

4,19%

4,22%

4,21%

4,20%

4,20%

12M

4,60%

4,37%

4,10%

4,17%

4,20%

4,28%

4,71%

4,55%

4,60%

4,74%

4,61%

4,53%

4,51%

WIBID

O/N

3,32%

4,21%

4,10%

3,97%

3,97%

3,94%

3,94%

3,94%

3,94%

3,17%

3,95%

3,93%

3,90%

T/N

4,35%

4,20%

4,09%

3,97%

3,97%

3,95%

3,95%

3,95%

3,95%

3,94%

3,96%

3,95%

3,91%

SW

4,40%

4,20%

4,08%

3,97%

3,96%

3,96%

3,96%

3,96%

3,96%

3,96%

3,97%

3,97%

3,94%

2W

4,40%

4,20%

4,05%

3,98%

3,96%

3,96%

3,97%

3,97%

3,97%

3,96%

3,97%

3,97%

3,95%

1M

4,40%

4,20%

4,02%

3,98%

3,97%

3,96%

3,97%

3,97%

3,97%

3,97%

3,98%

3,97%

3,96%

3M

4,40%

4,20%

3,96%

3,99%

3,98%

3,99%

4,03%

4,01%

4,01%

4,03%

4,03%

4,02%

4,01%

12M

4,40%

4,17%

3,90%

3,99%

4,02%

4,09%

4,51%

4,35%

4,40%

4,54%

4,42%

4,33%

4,31%

USD/PLN ( fix )

3,2613

3,1630

3,1768

3,2491

3,0841

3,0671

3,1816

3,0831

3,0651

3,1425

3,0631

2,8911

2,9105

EUR/PLN ( fix )

3,8598

3,8285

3,7726

3,9357

3,8740

3,9472

4,0434

3,9321

3,9369

3,9835

3,8871

3,8166

3,8312

EUR/USD

1,1835

1,2104

1,1875

1,2113

1,2561

1,2869

1,2709

1,2754

1,2844

1,2676

1,2690

1,3201

1,3163

Oficjalne aktywa rezerwowe
(stan na koniec miesi ca)

mln zł

138 837,60

136 648,20

144 566,02

143 837,14

140 011,40

148 844,10

149 275,20

149 309,90

149 310,30

153 023,20

144 502,2

143 060,80

141 113,70

mln EUR

35 970,20

35 692,40

38 320,00

36 546,80

36 141,30

37 708,80

36 918,20

37 972,00

37 925,80

38 414,30

37 174,80

37 483,80

36 832,80

(-Skup) Sprzeda walut

-426,07

97,75

473,41

-375,00

-160,64

-1 743,44

-794,22

-881,21

-221,03

-2 380,61

509,43

251,26

-657,33

*/ - Operacje otwartego rynku podawane s wg warto ci nominalnej
**/ Od dnia 24.01.2005 r. NBP oblicza stawk POLONIA (Polish Overnight Index Average) b d c stawk referencyjn dla depozytów O/N przyj tych lub udzielonych pomi dzy uczestnikami Fixingu POLONIA.

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Wykres 1. Poziom nadpłynno ci sektora bankowego w Czechach

(dzienne saldo operacji otwartego rynku)

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CZEONIA

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Wykres 3. Poziom nadpłynno ci sektora bankowego na Słowacji

(dzienne saldo operacji otwartego rynku)

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

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06

lu

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06

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Podstawowe operacje otwartego rynku

Dłu sze operacje otwartego rynku (emisja bonów NBS)

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Wykres 4. Stawki rynkowe na tle stóp oficjalnych Banku Słowacji

11

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

st

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06

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6

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0

6

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Stopa podstawowa

Stopa depozytowa

Stopa kredytowa

SKONIA

BRIBOR 2W

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36

Wykres 5. Poziom nadpłynno ci sektora bankowego na W grzech

(dzienne saldo operacji otwartego rynku)

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

1 600 000

st

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06

lu

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06

m

ar

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6

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37

Wykres 5. Stawki rynkowe na tle stóp oficjalnych Banku W gier

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

9,0

10,0

st

y

06

lu

t

06

m

ar

0

6

kw

i 0

6

m

aj

0

6

cz

e

06

lip

0

6

si

e

06

w

rz

0

6

pa

0

6

lis

0

6

gr

u

06

st

y

07

w

p

kt

p

ro

c.

Stopa podstawowa
Stopa depozytowa
Stopa kredytowa

rednia stopa rynkowa overnight wa ona wielko ci transakcji (wyliczana przez MNB)

BUBOR 2W

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38

*

*

*

Tabela 1. Zestawienie podstawowych parametrów operacji polityki pieni nej prowadzonej przez banki centralne

Czech, Słowacji, W gier i Polski (dane na dzie 31 grudnia 2006 r. lub rednio w 2006 r.).

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