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Analiza portfela |
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Inwestor rozpatruje możliwość zakupienia portfela akcji złożonego |
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z walorów firmy Alfa oraz Beta. W tej chwili kurs rynkowy akcji firmy Alfa |
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kształtuje się na poziomie 15 PLN, natomiast kursu Beta 27 PLN. |
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Portfel ma składać się z 600 akcji firma Alfa oraz z 500 firmy Beta. |
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Proszę obliczyć oczekiwaną stopę zwrotu z portfela tych akcji biorąc |
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pod uwagę, że historyczne dane o kursach i wypłacanych dywidendach kształtują |
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się następująco: |
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ALFA |
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BETA |
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okres (t) |
kurs (Ps) |
dywidenda (D) |
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okres (t) |
kurs (Ps) |
dywidenda (D) |
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1 |
12 |
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1 |
23 |
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2 |
13 |
1 |
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2 |
25 |
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3 |
12 |
1 |
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3 |
24 |
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4 |
15 |
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4 |
23 |
2 |
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5 |
14 |
2 |
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5 |
28 |
2 |
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6 |
14 |
3 |
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6 |
25 |
2 |
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7 |
17 |
2 |
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7 |
23 |
4 |
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8 |
15 |
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8 |
22 |
4 |
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9 |
18 |
3 |
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9 |
24 |
3 |
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10 |
15 |
3 |
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10 |
27 |
1 |
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Dane podstawowe |
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cena aktualna akcji Alfa |
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15 |
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cena aktualna akcji Beta |
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27 |
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ilość akcji Alfa w portfelu |
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600 |
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ilość akcji Beta w portfelu |
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500 |
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łączna wartość inwestycji = |
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15*600 + 27*500 |
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łączna wartość inwestycji = |
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22500 |
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Etap I |
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Z podanych kursów oraz wartości dywident obliczamy stopy zwrotu |
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w poszczególnych okresach według poniższego wzoru: |
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Powyższe obliczenia powtarzamy dla firmy Beta |
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Alfa |
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Beta |
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okres (t) |
kurs (Ps) |
dywidenda (D) |
przychód z akcji |
stopa dochody (ytA) |
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okres (t) |
kurs (Ps) |
dywidenda (D) |
przychód z akcji |
stopa dochody (ytB) |
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1 |
12 |
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12 |
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1 |
23 |
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23 |
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2 |
13 |
1 |
14 |
16,67% |
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25 |
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25 |
8,70% |
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3 |
12 |
1 |
13 |
0,00% |
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3 |
24 |
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-4,00% |
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4 |
15 |
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25,00% |
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23 |
2 |
25 |
4,17% |
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5 |
14 |
2 |
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6,67% |
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28 |
2 |
30 |
30,43% |
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6 |
14 |
3 |
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21,43% |
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25 |
2 |
27 |
-3,57% |
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7 |
17 |
2 |
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35,71% |
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23 |
4 |
27 |
8,00% |
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8 |
15 |
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15 |
-11,76% |
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22 |
4 |
26 |
13,04% |
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9 |
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3 |
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40,00% |
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24 |
3 |
27 |
22,73% |
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10 |
15 |
3 |
18 |
0,00% |
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10 |
27 |
1 |
28 |
16,67% |
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Etap II |
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Na podstawie obliczonych historycznych stóp zwrotu szacujemy |
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oczekiwaną średnią stopę zwrotu dla akcji firm według wzoru |
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Alfa |
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Beta |
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Okres (t) |
st. doch. (ytA) |
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Okres (t) |
st. doch. (ytB) |
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1 |
16,67% |
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1 |
8,70% |
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2 |
0,00% |
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2 |
-4,00% |
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3 |
25,00% |
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3 |
4,17% |
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4 |
6,67% |
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4 |
30,43% |
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5 |
21,43% |
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5 |
-3,57% |
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6 |
35,71% |
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6 |
8,00% |
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7 |
-11,76% |
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7 |
13,04% |
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8 |
40,00% |
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8 |
22,73% |
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9 |
0,00% |
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9 |
16,67% |
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suma ytA |
133,71% |
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średnia dla Alfa |
14,86% |
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suma ytB |
96,16% |
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średnia dla Beta |
10,68% |
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Etap III |
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Obliczamy odchylenie standardowe oczekiwanych stóp dochodu według wzoru: |
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Alfa |
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Beta |
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Okres (t) |
ytA |
yA |
ytA -yA |
(ytA -yA)2 |
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Okres (t) |
ytB |
yB |
ytB -yB |
(ytB -yB)2 |
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1 |
16,67% |
14,86% |
1,81% |
0,0003 |
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1 |
8,70% |
10,68% |
-1,99% |
0,0004 |
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2 |
0,00% |
14,86% |
-14,86% |
0,0221 |
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2 |
-4,00% |
10,68% |
-14,68% |
0,0216 |
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3 |
25,00% |
14,86% |
10,14% |
0,0103 |
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3 |
4,17% |
10,68% |
-6,52% |
0,0042 |
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4 |
6,67% |
14,86% |
-8,19% |
0,0067 |
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4 |
30,43% |
10,68% |
19,75% |
0,0390 |
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5 |
21,43% |
14,86% |
6,57% |
0,0043 |
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5 |
-3,57% |
10,68% |
-14,26% |
0,0203 |
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6 |
35,71% |
14,86% |
20,86% |
0,0435 |
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6 |
8,00% |
10,68% |
-2,68% |
0,0007 |
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7 |
-11,76% |
14,86% |
-26,62% |
0,0709 |
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7 |
13,04% |
10,68% |
2,36% |
0,0006 |
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8 |
40,00% |
14,86% |
25,14% |
0,0632 |
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22,73% |
10,68% |
12,04% |
0,0145 |
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9 |
0,00% |
14,86% |
-14,86% |
0,0221 |
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9 |
16,67% |
10,68% |
5,98% |
0,0036 |
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suma |
0,2434 |
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suma |
0,1049 |
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odch. stand. A |
17,44% |
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odch. stand. B |
11,45% |
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Etap IV |
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Na podstawie danych historycznych obliczamy kowariancję stóp zwrotu |
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akcji tworzących portfel według wzoru |
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Okres (t) |
Alfa (A) |
Beta (B) |
(ytA -yA)(ytB-yB) |
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ytA -yA |
ytB -yB |
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1 |
1,81% |
-1,99% |
-0,000 |
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2 |
-14,86% |
-14,68% |
0,022 |
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3 |
10,14% |
-6,52% |
-0,007 |
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4 |
-8,19% |
19,75% |
-0,016 |
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5 |
6,57% |
-14,26% |
-0,009 |
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6 |
20,86% |
-2,68% |
-0,006 |
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7 |
-26,62% |
2,36% |
-0,006 |
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8 |
25,14% |
12,04% |
0,030 |
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9 |
-14,86% |
5,98% |
-0,009 |
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suma |
-0,0011864 |
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Kow(A,B) |
-0,000148 |
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Etap V |
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Na podstawie obliczonych odchyleń standardowych średnich stóp dochodu obydwu spółek |
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oraz kowariancji obliczamy współczynnik korelacji wg wzoru: |
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Kor (A,B) |
-0,007 |
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Etap VI |
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Obliczamy średnią stopę dochodu z portfela złożonego z akcji firmy Alfa oraz Beta |
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według wzoru: |
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Z przeprowadzonych obliczeń wynika, że: |
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yA = |
14,86% |
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yB = |
10,68% |
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Udział wartościowy danych akcji w portfelu (w) obliczamy w następujący sposób: |
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wA = |
0,400 |
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wB = |
0,6000 |
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W związku z tym oczekiwana stopa dochodu z portfela akcji firmy Alfa oraz Beta będzie |
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równała się: |
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Y= |
12,35% |
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Etap VII |
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W tym momencie mamy już wszystkie dane niezbędne do obliczenia odchylenia standardowego |
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a więc: |
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odch. stand. portfela |
9,76% |
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13,847% |
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