Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory

Robert E. Lucas, Jr.

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 12, No. 4, Part 2: Rational Expectations. (Nov.,
1980), pp. 696-715.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-2879%28198011%2912%3A4%3C696%3AMAPIBC%3E2.0.CO%3B2-7

Journal of Money, Credit and Banking is currently published by Ohio State University Press.

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at

http://www.jstor.org/about/terms.html

. JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained

prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in
the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use.

Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at

http://www.jstor.org/journals/ohio.press.html

.

Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed
page of such transmission.

The JSTOR Archive is a trusted digital repository providing for long-term preservation and access to leading academic
journals and scholarly literature from around the world. The Archive is supported by libraries, scholarly societies, publishers,
and foundations. It is an initiative of JSTOR, a not-for-profit organization with a mission to help the scholarly community take
advantage of advances in technology. For more information regarding JSTOR, please contact [e-mail].

http://www.jstor.org

Mon Feb 4 05:49:59 2008

You have printed the following article:

Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory
Robert E. Lucas, Jr.
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 12, No. 4, Part 2: Rational Expectations. (Nov.,
1980), pp. 696-715.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-2879%28198011%2912%3A4%3C696%3AMAPIBC%3E2.0.CO%3B2-7

This article references the following linked citations. If you are trying to access articles from an
off-campus location, you may be required to first logon via your library web site to access JSTOR. Please
visit your library's website or contact a librarian to learn about options for remote access to JSTOR.

[Footnotes]

6

Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule

Stanley Fischer
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 1. (Feb., 1977), pp. 191-205.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197702%2985%3A1%3C191%3ALCREAT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-M

6

Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations

Edmund S. Phelps; John B. Taylor
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 1. (Feb., 1977), pp. 163-190.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197702%2985%3A1%3C163%3ASPOMPU%3E2.0.CO%3B2-I

6

Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations

John B. Taylor
Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 5. (Sep., 1979), pp. 1267-1286.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197909%2947%3A5%3C1267%3AEACOAM%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Q

7

Dynamic Programming Under Uncertainty with a Quadratic Criterion Function

Herbert A. Simon
Econometrica, Vol. 24, No. 1. (Jan., 1956), pp. 74-81.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28195601%2924%3A1%3C74%3ADPUUWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-5

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS

- Page 1 of 8 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

7

A Note on Certainty Equivalence in Dynamic Planning

H. Theil
Econometrica, Vol. 25, No. 2. (Apr., 1957), pp. 346-349.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28195704%2925%3A2%3C346%3AANOCEI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Q

7

Investment Under Uncertainty

Robert E. Lucas, Jr; Edward C. Prescott
Econometrica, Vol. 39, No. 5. (Sep., 1971), pp. 659-681.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197109%2939%3A5%3C659%3AIUU%3E2.0.CO%3B2-0

8

The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach

William J. Baumol
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 66, No. 4. (Nov., 1952), pp. 545-556.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0033-5533%28195211%2966%3A4%3C545%3ATTDFCA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-9

8

The Interest-Elasticity of Transactions Demand For Cash

James Tobin
The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 38, No. 3. (Aug., 1956), pp. 241-247.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0034-6535%28195608%2938%3A3%3C241%3ATIOTDF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-M

8

Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk

J. Tobin
The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 25, No. 2. (Feb., 1958), pp. 65-86.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0034-6527%28195802%2925%3A2%3C65%3ALPABTR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-8

9

An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle

Robert E. Lucas, Jr.
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 83, No. 6. (Dec., 1975), pp. 1113-1144.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197512%2983%3A6%3C1113%3AAEMOTB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-5

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS

- Page 2 of 8 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

9

"Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply

Rule
Thomas J. Sargent; Neil Wallace
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 83, No. 2. (Apr., 1975), pp. 241-254.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197504%2983%3A2%3C241%3A%22ETOMI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-5

9

A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States

Thomas J. Sargent
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 84, No. 2. (Apr., 1976), pp. 207-238.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197604%2984%3A2%3C207%3AACMMFT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Q

10

Recent Developments in Macroeconomic Disequilibrium Theory

Allan Drazen
Econometrica, Vol. 48, No. 2. (Mar., 1980), pp. 283-306.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198003%2948%3A2%3C283%3ARDIMDT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-O

10

"Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money

Supply Rule

Thomas J. Sargent; Neil Wallace
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 83, No. 2. (Apr., 1975), pp. 241-254.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197504%2983%3A2%3C241%3A%22ETOMI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-5

10

The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics

Thomas J. Sargent
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 84, No. 3. (Jun., 1976), pp. 631-640.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197606%2984%3A3%3C631%3ATOEONA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-8

12

Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation

Robert E. Lucas, Jr.; Leonard A. Rapping
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 77, No. 5. (Sep. - Oct., 1969), pp. 721-754.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28196909%2F10%2977%3A5%3C721%3ARWEAI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-L

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS

- Page 3 of 8 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

12

Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations

Thomas J. Sargent
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 86, No. 6. (Dec., 1978), pp. 1009-1044.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197812%2986%3A6%3C1009%3AEODLDS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-E

13

Dynamic Aspects of Earning Mobility

Lee A. Lillard; Robert J. Willis
Econometrica, Vol. 46, No. 5. (Sep., 1978), pp. 985-1012.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197809%2946%3A5%3C985%3ADAOEM%3E2.0.CO%3B2-B

Literature Cited

2

The Role of Securities in the Optimal Allocation of Risk-bearing

K. J. Arrow
The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 31, No. 2. (Apr., 1964), pp. 91-96.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0034-6527%28196404%2931%3A2%3C91%3ATROSIT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-D

4

The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach

William J. Baumol
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 66, No. 4. (Nov., 1952), pp. 545-556.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0033-5533%28195211%2966%3A4%3C545%3ATTDFCA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-9

6

Recent Developments in Macroeconomic Disequilibrium Theory

Allan Drazen
Econometrica, Vol. 48, No. 2. (Mar., 1980), pp. 283-306.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28198003%2948%3A2%3C283%3ARDIMDT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-O

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS

- Page 4 of 8 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

7

Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule

Stanley Fischer
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 1. (Feb., 1977), pp. 191-205.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197702%2985%3A1%3C191%3ALCREAT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-M

8

The Role of Monetary Policy

Milton Friedman
The American Economic Review, Vol. 58, No. 1. (Mar., 1968), pp. 1-17.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28196803%2958%3A1%3C1%3ATROMP%3E2.0.CO%3B2-6

14

Mr. Keynes and the "Classics"; A Suggested Interpretation

J. R. Hicks
Econometrica, Vol. 5, No. 2. (Apr., 1937), pp. 147-159.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28193704%295%3A2%3C147%3AMKAT%22A%3E2.0.CO%3B2-E

19

Dynamic Aspects of Earning Mobility

Lee A. Lillard; Robert J. Willis
Econometrica, Vol. 46, No. 5. (Sep., 1978), pp. 985-1012.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197809%2946%3A5%3C985%3ADAOEM%3E2.0.CO%3B2-B

21

An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle

Robert E. Lucas, Jr.
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 83, No. 6. (Dec., 1975), pp. 1113-1144.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197512%2983%3A6%3C1113%3AAEMOTB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-5

24

Investment Under Uncertainty

Robert E. Lucas, Jr; Edward C. Prescott
Econometrica, Vol. 39, No. 5. (Sep., 1971), pp. 659-681.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197109%2939%3A5%3C659%3AIUU%3E2.0.CO%3B2-0

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS

- Page 5 of 8 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

25

Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation

Robert E. Lucas, Jr.; Leonard A. Rapping
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 77, No. 5. (Sep. - Oct., 1969), pp. 721-754.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28196909%2F10%2977%3A5%3C721%3ARWEAI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-L

29

Liquidity Preference and the Theory of Interest and Money

Franco Modigliani
Econometrica, Vol. 12, No. 1. (Jan., 1944), pp. 45-88.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28194401%2912%3A1%3C45%3ALPATTO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-1

30

The Monetarist Controversy or, Should We Forsake Stabilization Policies?

Franco Modigliani
The American Economic Review, Vol. 67, No. 2. (Mar., 1977), pp. 1-19.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28197703%2967%3A2%3C1%3ATMCOSW%3E2.0.CO%3B2-J

31

Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements

John F. Muth
Econometrica, Vol. 29, No. 3. (Jul., 1961), pp. 315-335.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28196107%2929%3A3%3C315%3AREATTO%3E2.0.CO%3B2-G

33

Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium

Edmund S. Phelps
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 76, No. 4, Part 2: Issues in Monetary Research, 1967. (Jul. -
Aug., 1968), pp. 678-711.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28196807%2F08%2976%3A4%3C678%3AMDALE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-I

35

Stabilizing Powers of Monetary Policy under Rational Expectations

Edmund S. Phelps; John B. Taylor
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85, No. 1. (Feb., 1977), pp. 163-190.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197702%2985%3A1%3C163%3ASPOMPU%3E2.0.CO%3B2-I

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS

- Page 6 of 8 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

38

A Classical Macroeconometric Model for the United States

Thomas J. Sargent
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 84, No. 2. (Apr., 1976), pp. 207-238.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197604%2984%3A2%3C207%3AACMMFT%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Q

39

The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics

Thomas J. Sargent
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 84, No. 3. (Jun., 1976), pp. 631-640.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197606%2984%3A3%3C631%3ATOEONA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-8

40

Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations

Thomas J. Sargent
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 86, No. 6. (Dec., 1978), pp. 1009-1044.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197812%2986%3A6%3C1009%3AEODLDS%3E2.0.CO%3B2-E

41

"Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money

Supply Rule

Thomas J. Sargent; Neil Wallace
The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 83, No. 2. (Apr., 1975), pp. 241-254.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0022-3808%28197504%2983%3A2%3C241%3A%22ETOMI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-5

42

Dynamic Programming Under Uncertainty with a Quadratic Criterion Function

Herbert A. Simon
Econometrica, Vol. 24, No. 1. (Jan., 1956), pp. 74-81.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28195601%2924%3A1%3C74%3ADPUUWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2-5

45

Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations

John B. Taylor
Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 5. (Sep., 1979), pp. 1267-1286.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28197909%2947%3A5%3C1267%3AEACOAM%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Q

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS

- Page 7 of 8 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.

46

A Note on Certainty Equivalence in Dynamic Planning

H. Theil
Econometrica, Vol. 25, No. 2. (Apr., 1957), pp. 346-349.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0012-9682%28195704%2925%3A2%3C346%3AANOCEI%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Q

48

The Interest-Elasticity of Transactions Demand For Cash

James Tobin
The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 38, No. 3. (Aug., 1956), pp. 241-247.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0034-6535%28195608%2938%3A3%3C241%3ATIOTDF%3E2.0.CO%3B2-M

49

Liquidity Preference as Behavior Towards Risk

J. Tobin
The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 25, No. 2. (Feb., 1958), pp. 65-86.

Stable URL:

http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0034-6527%28195802%2925%3A2%3C65%3ALPABTR%3E2.0.CO%3B2-8

http://www.jstor.org

LINKED CITATIONS

- Page 8 of 8 -

NOTE: The reference numbering from the original has been maintained in this citation list.