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Revue de Presse-Press Reviezo-Berhevoka ęape-Rivista Stampa-Dentro de la Prensa-Basin Ozeti

Kurd relations reąuire deft touch

Taipei Times By Fang Tien-sze 28 August 2004

Taiwan should carefuliy assess both International and intemal Kurdish factors before offering unequivocal support for a Kurdish State.

During his recent visit to Taiwan, Prime Minister Nechervan Idris Barzani of the Kurdistan Regional Govemment was received by high govemment officials. Because they were the first officials from [raq to visit Taiwan sińce the establishment of the Iraqi interim govemment, the delegation was the focus of much attention. Minister of Foreign Affairs Mark Chen revealed that Barzani during his visit exchanged ideas with Taiwanese officials regarding the founding of a State belon-ging to the Kurdish people, and he also wanted to exchange reprc-sentative offices. Based on the principle of creating a wide rangę of friendly relationships, we should seize on this opportunity for exchan-ge and further strengthen the relationship between Taiwan and

Kurdistan. Due to the complexity of the question of independence for the Kurdish people, however, Taiwan should carefuliy assess both intemational and intemal Kurdish factors before offering unequivocal support for a Kurdish State and deciding whether or not to exchange rcpresentative offices.

The Kurdish people have long hoped to be able to establish their own State, but opposition from various countries together with Kurdish disunity have madę the road toward nationhood an arduous one. Armed intervention by the US and UK was the main rcason why Iraqi Kurds could enjoy autonomy following the 1991 Gulf War.

In order to protect the Kurds and weaken the power of Saddam Hussein, the US, UK and France in April 1991 created a no-fly zonę in Iraq above the36 th parallel, forbidding Iraqi aircraft to enter the zonę.

A US-led multinational force patrolled the area and enforced the regulations so Saddam could not take military action against Kurds in the northem part of the country. Thus they could establish an autonomous regional govemment, of which Barzani is the incum-bent prime minister. It should be noticed that the Kurdish area in Iraq remains Split. The Kurd Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) led by Jalal Talabani are the two main forces among Iraq's Kurds. The two par-ties formed a joint govemment inl992 , but the power distribution issue gradually led to a dispute that exploded into a full-blown civil war inl994 . In an attempt to defeat the PUK, the Kurd Democratic Party requested the help of Saddams troops inl9%. The two parties set up separate govemments, both claiming control over the whole Kurdish area in northem Iraq. British and US mediation resulted in the two parties signing a cease-fire agreement, but to this day the two parts of the Kurdish area remain separately ruled.

The intemal Kurdish split has always been one of the factors impe-ding the formation of a Kurdish State. Kurds in different areas often rule themselves, and some of the leaders of im port ant organizations do not get along with each other. Some countries are using these weak points to further weaken the Kurdish people. During the Iran-Iraq war, both countries madę use of Kurds in the opponents country, and Turkey has used Iraqi Kurds to fight Kurds in Turkey. The Iraqi generał elections planned for March next year will be key to answering the question of whether a peaceful solution to the split in the Kurdish area will be possible. Nechervan Idris Barzani, the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Govemment, is a member of the Kurd Democratic Party. But because the Kurd Democratic Party and the PUK are equally strong, it is difficult to predict the out-come of the elections. When expressing its support for the Kurdish people, Taiwan should avoid giving the impression that we as out-siders are choosing sides. In addition to the unpredictability of inter-nal factors, we must also consider the attitudes of other countries conceming the Kurdish issue. Apart from Iraq, the Kurdish people

are distributed over Turkey, Iran, Syria and Armenia. Nonę of these countries want independence for Iraq’s Kurds lest Kurds in their own country emulate them, creating an independence domino effect. During the war between the US and Iraq, Turkey was concer-ned that the Kurds in Iraq would declare independence, and there-fore threatened military intervention. Unless these countries change their policies, they will continue to błock the formation of an independent Kurdish State in Iraq.

Although the US has assisted the Kurds in obtaining autonomy, its main goal has been to restrain Saddam, not to support the formation of an independent Kurdish State. The CIA has intervened in the Kurdish civil war by supporting attacks by the PUK on the Kurd Democratic Party. With Saddam now gone, the Kurdish peoples strategie importance to the US is dwindling, and the US is unwilling to offend main Iraqi ethnic groups or Turkey over the Kurdistan issue. These intemal and intemational factors make it unlikely that Iraq s Kurds will be able to establish an independent State in the short term. Iraq's Kurdish leaders also recognize these limitations. If Iraq establishes a federal system of govemment offering the Kurds some autonomous powers, the Kurds would be willing to compro-mise and refrain from seeking independence from Iraq.

Given this situation, there is no need for Taiwan to take a position on the question of an independent Kurdish State. The Kurdistan Regional Govemment's suggestion that Taiwan and Kurdistan exchange permanent representative offices would strengthen mutual exchanges between Kurdistan and Taiwan. Taiwan must, however, give cautious consideration to the reaction of Turkey and other concemed States. If such an exchange does not win the unders-tanding of these States, Taiwan s losses would outweigh its gains. The visit by the delegation from the Kurdistan Regional Govemment is encouraging from a diplomatic perspective, but we shouldn t be too eager, and should instead cautiously assess the situahon in order to maximize gains.