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cvents would eocpletely revcr»e the procent dialoentlon of the German atzati flor co© in Surope*?he arinoured and ewtori-©od dirieione Trozi the Beatem front ae woli aa the od jor port of tho luftwr-ffe would tnie the place of the inferlor diTleione of the LaaAatunRtWhieh are rt the oooent etation-ed in ;*eeterr. Kurope»rnd the oecond-r«te oni ta would be cent to occupy the cou^uered aro»a of Kuseia#

f

#

The conclusioru are eaally dr Mm and elear#

* hould the flrot ^lternatiwe arlee»lt would be

neoeaaary to t«ke oć7autaee₉evc:i ot n crant price₉of the ©r*gOfrf^ st of tnę whole Oerv.m iorcet on the Kucali frant and the olmoat cosnplete espofiure In ester:* aurope₉in order to obt^rin a deoitive iatue by an of?enalve on the eeutineat

and by &trifcin£ ot the hesrt of Oerra^aay#

It woali be necesc-try to coet.enot the Ircnedl «tc realieatlon of the conditions prelininrj*y to thia aetioa. whlch wo.ild be elarted by the attaiiiiuent of era tery in the

air orer

lałdinff.

eaten; ©urope end the det'.lled prep^ration of a

112

?he c o co.id alter»fttlve *3hou 11 be <.vold©d at all eor>ts#2he defe t of Kuafiia would put in doubt the finnl leeue of the wnr₉or at eny rnto prolonn for «auy yenre tr*e orned atruggle₉whlcri would heve to be o mleiil ted o esh*u©t the ©i.&iy ani le*ve no posaibility to aeelt »*n lenne by »n open battle on the contluent#£ven In the anticlpation of a suecercful O«mo;ł offfenaitw in the f iet₉tho only nura and effeotive aaciat -nce to the Au»*l&n eriort would be the eat obli ©baon t of a ©econd front#Th© eet larte of the foreea left by the Oena* ne in ester:. -na centr~>l Europę at the tirae of the Ir firet offen©lvw ag inat liussin ln 1^^X₉ is c©:i-only knovn#?he prineiple of eeor*ocay of effort ie a c* non ol Gernan ©tratogy > ikl durla© the current ye«i» will undoubtedly bo opplled to a ai-lltir extent.lt ahould be OKpectcd tfcat aitler will oonee utrat© to ti\e rwucl mm his forceo ln the Kent for the offfenaiY© of 19^2 and only ie ve tiws reia.&nta of IstfOrior unita for defence in the test* Aoceptlng thia hypothesi6₉b*£6d upo i the Jenowi edge of the adwerectry ond confimi.tory inforoetion oa tne part of the lnte'.ligenco aervice₉tńe conclu^io:; %hioh hfd already be en prewioucly cK:ntioned in ; letter to tha Britlah frioo llnister tn«t one anaoured divialoa thrown on the co tinent ln 19t2 would provo taore affeetiTe th»n tire ©v.ch dlTlalone ln 19V3f^ind^ conflrmation#

Tiierc c~n be no doubt thet lndependently of the d»te at whic the Allled Porcen will be capable of 1’ rkłing

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